Seismicity Variations in Depth and Time in the Vrancea (Romania) Subcrustal Region

Seismicity patterns that characterize the seismic regime of the Vrancea intermediate-depth earthquakes are investigated using an earthquake catalogue extending from 1974 to 1998. The analysis is made separately on two characteristic segments of the subducted plate (active zones) which hosted the major earthquakes of 4 March 1977, 30 August 1986 and 30 May 1990. Precursory anomalies preceding the occurrence of the major shock of 1986 (M_w = 7.3) in the lower part of the subducted slab are outlined when analyzing the time variation of the parameter (defined as the ratio of small to moderate events in a given active zone and a given time interval) and of the fractal dimension of the earthquake space distribution. Nothing similar is noticed in the upper part of the Vrancea slab. The analyzed time interval covering 25 years shows that, in contrast to previous studies, the statistical fluctuations of the parameter, computed for a time window of 5 months, appear to be too large to be considered as precursory anomalies. Significant differences among characteristic depth segments are also outlined in the frequency–magnitude distribution and are possibly related to differences in the physical mechanism of the earthquake generation process.     

Small-scale spatial variation of the stress field in the back-arc Aegean area: Results from the seismotectonic study of the broader area of Mygdonia basin (N. Greece)

In the present work a detailed seismotectonic study of the broader area of the Mygdonia basin (N. Greece) is performed. Digital data for earthquakes which occurred in the broader Mygdonia basin and were recorded by the permanent telemetric network of the Geophysical Laboratory of the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki during the period 1989–1999 were collected and fault plane solutions for 50 earthquakes which occurred in the study area were calculated with a modified first motions approach which incorporates amplitude and radiation pattern information. Fault plane solutions for the 3 main shocks of Volvi (23/05/78, M_W = 5.8 and 20/06/78, M_W = 6.5) and Arnaia (04/05/95, M_W = 5.8) events and the 1978 aftershock sequence were additionally used. Moreover, data from two local networks established in the Mygdonia basin were also incorporated in the final dataset.Determination of the stress field was realized by the use of the method of Gephart and Forsyth [Gephart, J.W., Forsyth, D.W., 1984. An improved method for determining the regional stress tensor using earthquake focal mechanism data: application to the San Fernando earthquake sequence: Jour. Geophys. Res., v.89, no. B11, p. 9305–9320] for the stress tensor inversion and the results were compared with independent estimates based on the calculation of the average moment tensor [Papazachos, C.B.,Kiratzi, A.A., 1992. A formulation for reliable estimation of active crustal deformation and its application to central Greece. Geophys. J. Int. 111, 424–432]. The obtained stress results show a relatively good agreement between the two approaches, with differences in the azimuth of the dominant extension axis of the order of 10°. Furthermore, comparison with independent information for the mean stress axes provided by the study of kinematics on neotectonic faults [Mountrakis, D., Kilias, A., Tranos, M., Thomaidou, E., Papazachos, C., Karakaisis, G., Scordilis, E., Chatzidimitriou, P., Papadimitriou, E., Vargemezis, G., Aidona, E., Karagianni, E., Vamvakaris, D. Skarlatoudis, A. 2003. Determination of the settings and the seismotectonic behavior of the main seismic-active faults of Northern Greece area using neotectonic and seismological data. Earthquake Planning and Protection Organisation (OASP) (in Greek)] shows a similar agreement with typical misfit of the order 10°. The stress inversion method was modified in order to select one or both nodal planes of the focal mechanism which corresponds to the “true” fault plane of the occurred earthquakes and was able to select a single fault plane in the majority of examined cases. Using this approach, the obtained fault plane rose diagrams are in agreement with results from various neotectonic studies. Moreover, several secondary active fault branches were identified, which are still not clearly observed in the field.     

Macroseismic field of the March 4, 1977 Vrancea earthquake

The macroseismic field of the Vrancea earthquake of March 4, 1977, characterized by the following parameters : H = 19h 21m 56s, ø = 45.8°N, γ = 26.8° E, h = 95 Km, M = 7.2, I = VIIIMSK has been analyzed. The following problems were studied : area and shape of the isoseismals of intensity III–VIII ; elongation of the isoseismal ellipses and decrease of intensity with distance. The results confirm our previous studies (Radu and Apopei, 1978) of strong intermediate earthquakes, but render evidence for some peculiarities in the seismic intensity attenuation as well.     

Assessment of seismic risk scenarios for Bucharest,Romania

In this paper, seismic risk scenarios for Bucharest, the capital city of Romania, are proposed and assessed. Bucharest has one of the highest seismic risk levels in Europe, and this is due to a combination of relatively high seismic hazard and a building stock built mainly before the devastating Vrancea 1977 earthquake. In this study, the seismic risk of Bucharest is assessed using the most recent information regarding the characteristics of the residential building stock. The ground motion amplitudes are evaluated starting from random fields obtained by coupling a ground motion model derived for the Vrancea intermediate-depth seismic source with a spatial correlation model. The seismic risk evaluation method applied in this study is based on the well-known macroseismic method. For several structural typologies, the vulnerability parameters are evaluated based on a damage survey performed on 18,000 buildings in Bucharest after the March 1977 earthquake. Subsequently, the risk metrics are compared with those from other studies in the literature that apply a different risk assessment methodology in order to gain a better view of the uncertainties associated with a seismic risk study at city level. Finally, the impact of several Vrancea intermediate-depth earthquake scenarios is evaluated and the results show that the earthquake which has the closest epicenter to Bucharest appears to be the most damaging.

     

The earthquake of March 4, 1977, its recording peculiarities and source parameters

A detailed analysis of recording peculiarities at seismic stations of the Uniform System of Seismic Observations (USSO) is presented a complicated nature of the source being shown. Consideration is given to parameters of the earthquake source, including the seismic moment and the length of the rupture.Comparison of magnitudes M_LH and M_PV indicates an anomalous attenuation in surface waves, itis is 3–4 times weaker than it had been noticed in case of other intermediate-depth Carpathian earthquakes.On the basis of comparison of the logarithm of the ratio of P-wave spectra at different epicentral distances (30° –70° ), the fac tor characterizing the absorption of P wave is found to remain practically unchanged.Average value of the seismic moment is estimated to be 2.6 × 10²⁷ dyne × cm, the most reasonable length of the rupture 58 km, and its focus 100 –130 km. The source parameters of the earthquake in question are compared with those of the earthquake of November 10, 1940.     

The Vrancea earthquake of March 4, 1977 — a multiple seismic event and its seismotectonic implications

A study concerning the multiplicity character of Vrancea earthquake of March 4, 1977 based on records of the Romanian seismic network is presented. Four separate shocks within a 9 s interval were recognized of which three with M = 6.0–6.9. Some explanations regarding the macroseismic intensity are made. Also analysed are the shaking duration, the influence of the Carpathian Mountains on the shape of the isoseismal curves and the focal mechanism for the first two main shocks.     

Extension and direction of ruptures from teleseismic P-wave patterns for the earthquakes of Gazli 1976, April 8 and Vrancea 1977, March 4

For the earthquakes of Gazli (April 8, 1976) and Vrancea (March 4, 1977) seismogram interpretation was carried out by means of a new technique taking into account the finite dimensions of the source. This interpretation is based on theoretical and experimental considerations of wave patterns generated by a moving rupture. The amplitude of P-waves up to the maximum phases, P_max, were taken into account. The arrival time of P_max on the seismogram was considered as corresponding to the time of the maximum energy release. Source extension and direction of rupture were estimated by means of the azimuthal travel-time curve of the P_max-wave.For the Vrancea earthquake the process at the focus occurred in the form of bi-directional rupturing at azimuths of 180° and 290° from the initial hypocenter. For the Gazli earthquake rupturing developed in several branching directions with azimuths 180°, 240° and 300°. A northwestern direction was prevailing in this event. Records along the rupture and in the opposite direction are shown for both earthquakes.     

Tsunami magnitudes in Taiwan, the Philippines and Indonesia

The regional characteristics of tsunami magnitudes in the SE Asia region are discussed in relation to earthquake magnitudes during the period from 1960 to 1994. Tsunami magnitudes on the Imamura-Iida scale are investigated by the author's method (Hatori 1979, 1986) using the data of inundation heights near the source area and tide-gauge records observed in Japan. The magnitude values of the Taiwan tsunamis showed relatively to be small. On the contrary, the magnitudes of tsunamis in the vicinities of the Philippines and Indonesia exceed more than 1–2 grade (tsunami heights: 2–5 times) compared to earthquakes with similar size on the circum-Pacific zone. The relation between tsunami magnitude, m, and earthquake magnitude, M _s, is expressed as m = 2.66 M _s– 17.5 for these regions. For example, the magnitudes for the 1976 Mindanao tsunami (M _s= 7.8, 3702 deaths) and the 1992 Flores tsunami (M _s= 7.5, 1713 deaths) were determined to be m = 3 and m = 2.5, respectively. The focal depth of tsunamigenic earthquakes is shallower thand< 36 km, and the detectively of tsunamis is small for deep earthquakes being d > 40 km. For future tsunamis, it is indispensable to take precautions against shallow earthquakes having the magnitudes M _s> 6.5.     

Assessment of seismic risk scenarios for Bucharest,Romania

In this paper, seismic risk scenarios for Bucharest, the capital city of Romania, are proposed and assessed. Bucharest has one of the highest seismic risk levels in Europe, and this is due to a combination of relatively high seismic hazard and a building stock built mainly before the devastating Vrancea 1977 earthquake. In this study, the seismic risk of Bucharest is assessed using the most recent information regarding the characteristics of the residential building stock. The ground motion amplitudes are evaluated starting from random fields obtained by coupling a ground motion model derived for the Vrancea intermediate-depth seismic source with a spatial correlation model. The seismic risk evaluation method applied in this study is based on the well-known macroseismic method. For several structural typologies, the vulnerability parameters are evaluated based on a damage survey performed on 18,000 buildings in Bucharest after the March 1977 earthquake. Subsequently, the risk metrics are compared with those from other studies in the literature that apply a different risk assessment methodology in order to gain a better view of the uncertainties associated with a seismic risk study at city level. Finally, the impact of several Vrancea intermediate-depth earthquake scenarios is evaluated and the results show that the earthquake which has the closest epicenter to Bucharest appears to be the most damaging.     

Real time earthquake forecasting in Italy

We have applied an earthquake clustering epidemic model to real time data at the Italian Earthquake Data Center operated by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) for short-term forecasting of moderate and large earthquakes in Italy. In this epidemic-type model every earthquake is regarded, at the same time, as being triggered by previous events and triggering following earthquakes. The model uses earthquake data only, with no explicit use of tectonic, geologic, or geodetic information. The forecasts are displayed as time-dependent maps showing both the expected rate density of M_l ≥ 4.0 earthquakes and the probability of ground shaking exceeding Modified Mercalli Intensity VI (PGA ≥ 0.01 g) in an area of 100 × 100 km² around the zone of maximum expected rate density in the following 24 h. For testing purposes, the overall probability of occurrence of an M_l ≥ 4.5 earthquake in the same area of 100 × 100 km² is also estimated. The whole procedure is tested in real time, for internal use only, at the INGV Earthquake Data Center.Forecast verification procedures have been carried out in forward-retrospective way on the 2006–2007 INGV data set, making use of statistical tools as the Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) diagrams. These procedures show that the clustering epidemic model performs up to several hundred times better than a simple random forecasting hypothesis. The seismic hazard modeling approach so developed, after a suitable period of testing and refinement, is expected to provide a useful contribution to real time earthquake hazard assessment, even with a possible practical application for decision making and public information.     

Source parameters of the ML 4.1 earthquake of November 08, 2006, southeast Beni-Suef, northern Egypt

In the early morning hours on Wednesday November 08, 2006 at 04:32:10(GMT) a small earthquake of M_L 4.1 has occurred at southeast Beni-Suef, approximately 160 km SEE of Cairo, northern Egypt. The quake has been felt as far as Cairo and its surroundings while no casualties were reported. The instrumental epicentre is located at 28.57°N and 31.55°E. Seismic moment is 1.76 E14 Nm, corresponding to a moment magnitude M_w 3.5. Following a Brune model, the source radius is 0.3 km with an average dislocation of 1.8 cm and a 2.4 MPa stress drop. The source mechanism from a first motion fault plane solution shows a left-lateral strike-slip mechanism with a minor dip-slip component along fault NNW striking at 161°, dipping 52° to the west and rake −5°. Trend and plunging of the maximum and minimum principle axes P/T are 125°, 28°, 21°, and 23°, respectively. A comparison with the mechanism of the October, 1999 event shows similarities in faulting type and orientation of nodal planes.Eight small earthquakes (3.0  M_L < 5.0) were also recorded by the Egyptian National Seismological Network (ENSN) from the same region. We estimate the source parameters and fault mechanism solutions (FMS) for these earthquakes using displacement spectra and P-wave polarities, respectively. The obtained source parameters including seismic moments of 4.9 × 10¹²–5.04 × 10¹⁵ Nm, stress drops of 0.2–4.9 MPa and relative displacement of 0.1–9.1 cm. The azimuths of T-axes determined from FMS are oriented in NNE–SSW direction. This direction is consistent with the present-day stress field in Egypt and the last phase of stress field changes in the Late Pleistocene, as well as with recent GPS measurements.     

Premonitory crustal deformations, strains and seismotectonic features (b-values) preceding Koyna earthquakes

There have been instances of premonitory variations in tilts, displacements, strains, telluric current, seismomagnetic effects, seismic velocities ( V_p, V_s) and their ratio (V_p/V_s), b-values, radon emission, etc. preceding large and moderate earthquakes, especially in areas near epicentres and along faults and other weak zones. Intensity and duration (T) of these premonitory quantities are very much dependent on magnitude (M) of the seismic event. Hence, these quantities may be utilised for prediction of an incoming seismic event well in advance of the actual earthquake. In the recent past, tilts, strain in deep underground rock and crustal displacements have been observed in the Koyna earthquake region over a decade covering pre- and postearthquake periods; and these observations confirm their reliability for qualitative as well as quantitative premonitory indices. Tilt began to change significantly one to two years before the Koyna earthquake of December 10, 1967, of magnitude 7.0. Sudden changes in ground tilt measured in a watertube tiltmeter accompanied an earthquake of magnitude 5.2 on October 17, 1973 and in other smaller earthquakes in the Koyna region, though premonitory changes in tilt preceding smaller earthquakes were not so much in evidence. However, changes in strains in deep underground rock were observed in smaller earthquakes of magnitude 4.0 and above. Furthermore, as a very large number of earthquakes (M = 1–7.0) were recorded in the extensive seismic net in the Koyna earthquake region during 1963–1975, precise b-value variations as computed from the above data, could reveal indirectly the state of crustal (tectonic) strain variations in the earthquake focal region and consequently act as a powerful premonitory index, especially for the significant Koyna earthquakes of December 10, 1967 (M = 7.0) and October 17, 1973 (M = 5.2). The widespread geodetic and magnetic levelling observations covering the pre- and postearthquake periods indicate significant vertical and horizontal crustal displacements, possibly accompanied by large-scale migration of underground magma during the large seismic event of December 10, 1967 in the Koyna region (M = 7.0). Duration (T) of premonitory changes in tilt, strains, etc., is generally governed by the equation of the type logT = A + BM (A and B are statistically determined coefficients). Similar other instances of premonitory evidences are also observed in micro-earthquakes (M = − 1 to 2) due to activation of a fault caused by nearby reservoir water-level fluctuations.     

Fault geometries from the space distribution of the 1990–1997 Sannio–Benevento earthquakes: inferences on the active deformation in Southern Apennines

In this study, we analyze the recent (1990–1997) seismicity that affected the northern sector (Sannio–Benevento area) of the Southern Apennines chain. We applied the Best Estimate Method (BEM), which collapses hypocentral clouds, to the events of low energy (M_{d max}=4.1) seismic sequences in order to constrain the location and geometry of the seismogenetic structures. The results indicate that earthquakes aligned along three main structures: two sub-parallel structures striking NW–SE (1990–1992, Benevento sequence) and one structure striking NE–SW (1997, Sannio sequence). The southernmost NW–SE structure, which dips towards NE, overlies the fault that is likely to be responsible for a larger historical earthquake (I_{o max}=XI MCS, 1688 earthquake). The northernmost NW–SE striking structure dips towards SW. The NE–SW striking structure is sub-vertical and it is located at the northern tip of the fault segment supposed to be responsible for the 1688 earthquake. The spatio-temporal evolution of the 1990–1997 seismicity indicates a progressive migration from SE (Benevento) to NW (Sannio) associated to a deepening of hypocenters (i.e., from about 5 to 12 km). Hypocenters cluster at the interface between the major structural discontinuities (e.g., pre-existing thrust surfaces) or within higher rigidity layers (e.g., the Apulia carbonates). Available focal mechanisms from earthquakes occurred on the recognized NW–SE and NE–SW faults are consistent with dip-slip normal solutions. This evidences the occurrence of coexisting NW–SE and NE–SW extensions in Southern Apennines.     

Coseismic responses and the mechanism behind MW 5.1 earthquake of March 14, 2005 in the Koyna–Warna region, India

An earthquake of M_w 5.1 occurred on March 14, 2005, in the seismically active Koyna–Warna region in western India, the site known for the largest reservoir triggered seismicity (RTS) in the world. For more than four decades, earthquakes with M  4.0 have occurred in this region at regular intervals. Impoundment of reservoirs and changes in lake levels can trigger earthquakes by two processes of stress modifications, namely direct loading effect of the reservoir and diffusion through various faults and fractures. In this paper we analysed the reservoir water level data at Koyna and Warna reservoirs prior to the occurrence of the March 14, 2005 earthquake, to explain the dominant mechanism behind its occurrence and its correlation with the observed coseismic changes. We conclude that the diffusion process, not the reservoir load effect, is the dominating mechanism triggering earthquakes in the region. The coseismic changes in deep well water levels sensitive to earth tides are found to be to the order of 1–12 cm.     

The 2003 earthquake swarm in Anjalankoski, south-eastern Finland

During May 2003 a swarm of 16 earthquakes (M_L = 0.6–2.1) occurred at Anjalankoski, south-eastern Finland. The activity lasted for three weeks, but additional two events were observed at the same location in October 2004. A comparison of the waveforms indicated that the source mechanisms and the hypocentres of the events were nearly identical.A relative earthquake location method was applied to better define the geometry of the cluster and to identify the fault plane associated with the earthquakes. The relocated earthquakes aligned along an ENE–WSW trending zone, with a lateral extent of about 1.0 km by 0.8 km. The relative location and the waveform-modelling of depth sensitive surface wave (Rg) and S-to-P converted body wave (sP) phases indicated that the events were unusually shallow, most likely occurring within the first 2 km of the surface. The revised historical earthquake data confirm that shallow swarm-type seismicity is characteristic to the area.The focal mechanism obtained as a composite solution of the five strongest events corresponds to dip-slip motion along a nearly vertical fault plane (strike = 250°, dip = 80°, rake = 90°). The dip and strike of this nodal plane as well as the relocated hypocentres coincide with an internal intrusion boundary of the Vyborg rapakivi batholith.The events occur under a compressive local stress field, which is explained by large gravitational potential energy differences and ridge-push forces. Pore-pressure changes caused by intrusion of ground water and/or radon gas into the fracture zones are suggested to govern the swarm-type earthquake activity.     

A robust satellite technique for monitoring seismically active areas: The case of Bhuj–Gujarat earthquake

A robust satellite data analysis technique (RAT) has been recently proposed as a suitable tool for satellite TIR surveys in seismically active regions and already successfully tested in different cases of earthquakes (both high and medium–low magnitudes).In this paper, the efficiency and the potentialities of the RAT technique have been tested even when it is applied to a wide area with extremely variable topography, land coverage and climatic characteristics (the whole Indian subcontinent). Bhuj–Gujarat's earthquake (occurred on 26th January 2001, M_S  7.9) has been considered as a test case in the validation phase, while a relatively unperturbed period (no earthquakes with M_S ≥ 5, in the same region and in the same period) has been analyzed for confutation purposes. To this aim, 6 years of Meteosat-5 TIR observations have been processed for the characterization of the TIR signal behaviour at each specific observation time and location.The anomalous TIR values, detected by RAT, have been evaluated in terms of time–space persistence in order to establish the existence of actually significant anomalous transients. The results indicate that the studied area was affected by significant positive thermal anomalies which were identified, at different intensity levels, not far from the Gujarat coast (since 15th January, but with a clearer evidence on 22nd January) and near the epicentral area (mainly on 21st January). On 25th January (1 day before Gujarat's earthquake) significant TIR anomalies appear on the Northern Indian subcontinent, showing a remarkable coincidence with the principal tectonic lineaments of the region (thrust Himalayan boundary).On the other hand, the results of the confutation analysis indicate that no meaningful TIR anomalies appear in the absence of seismic events with M_S ≥ 5.     

ULF geomagnetic anomalies of possible seismogenic origin observed at Teoloyucan station, México, in 1999–2001: Intermediate and short-time analysis

The analysis of ULF geomagnetic field measured at Teoloyucan station (Central Mexico, 11′35.735″ W, 19 44′45.100″ N, 2280 m height) is presented in an intermediate (± 15 days) and short time scale (the day of the EQ occurrence) in relation to 7 major earthquakes occurred in Mexico in 1999–2001. Local changes in the fractal dynamics of the magnetic field are found to be important: a pronounced fall of the fractal index is frequently observed prior to the main shock. The study of the ULF resonant structure recently discovered in the frequencies f_R1 = 10.2−11.1 mHz and f_R2 = 13.6−14.5 mHz reveals changes in their character probably related to the processes of the earthquakes preparation. The success of the observation of the mentioned anomalies (specially the fractal index decrease) strongly depends on how close is the station from the epicenter, and what is the magnitude of the earthquake.     

Seismic hazard evaluation for dams in northern Colorado, U.S.A.

A seismic hazard evaluation for three dams in the Rocky Mountains of northern Colorado is based on a study of the historical seismicity. To model earthquake occurrence as a random process utilizing a maximum likelihood method, the catalog must exhibit random space-time characteristics. This was achieved using a declustering procedure and correction for completeness of recording. On the basis of the resulting a- and b-values, probabilistic epicentral distances for a 2 × 10^–5 annual probability were calculated. For a random earthquake of magnitude M _L 6.0–6.5, this distance is 15 km. Suggested ground motion parameters were estimated using a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Critical peak horizontal accelerations at the dams are 0.22g if median values are assumed and 0.39g if variable attenuation and seismicity rates are taken into account. For structural analysis of the dams, synthetic acceleration time series were calculated to match the empirical response spectra. In addition, existing horizontal strong motion records from two Mammoth Lakes, California earthquakes were selected and scaled to fit the target horizontal acceleration response spectra.     

Effect of local soil conditions on dynamic ground response in the southern coast of Izmir Bay,Turkey

The city of Izmir, located at the western end of Turkey, has experienced many strong earthquakes throughout its history. The southern coast of Izmir Bay, one of the most densely populated areas of Izmir, is located on deep alluvial sediments. It is important to determine the effect of local soil conditions on dynamic ground response in the study area, where thick loose water-saturated alluvial sediments exist. A database including geotechnical and geological information on the study area is constructed. Majority of the site is classified as D and E according to NEHRP provisions. Dynamic site response analyses are performed with EERA by utilizing the field and laboratory test results and earthquake time histories of moderate-scale earthquakes such as 1977 Izmir (M_L = 5.3), 2003 Urla (M_d = 5.6), and 2005 Uzunkuyu-Urla (M_L = 5.9), which occurred in and nearby Izmir. In addition, a scenario ground motion generated by the Izmir Fault with a magnitude of 6.5, having an average distance of 10 km to the study area, is also considered. The output data obtained from the dynamic site response analyses are evaluated, and maps displaying variation in dynamic parameters on ground surface are prepared for the southern coast of Izmir Bay, Turkey. Consequently, the dynamic analyses performed with the soil models constituted for the study area verified the damage occurred in a close distance event of 1977 Izmir earthquake. The scenario earthquake resulted in peak ground accelerations more than 0.6 g at the eastern and western ends of the study area. However, long distance events resulted in spectral amplifications by up to 5 times. With this study, it is emphasized that local soil conditions should be evaluated individually in the area of interest. Generation of a site-specific design spectrum is recommended for the areas located on deep alluvial sediments.