Assessment of potential outburst floods from the Tsho Rolpa glacial lake in Nepal

Flood and sediment disasters caused by glacial lake outbursts have occurred frequently in recent years in the Himalayas of Nepal. Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) can cause catastrophic flooding in downstream areas with serious damage to lives and property. It is thus important to investigate outburst floods from potentially dangerous glacial lakes. In this study, the characteristics of potential outburst floods from the Tsho Rolpa glacial lake due to two types of moraine dam failure caused by seepage flow or water overtopping were analyzed with various scenarios by using integrated modeling system of three numerical models: (1) the flow and bed-surface erosion model, (2) the seepage model and (3) the slope stability model. Flood inundation areas were also identified by using the numerical model of the flow and moraine dam failure and geographical information system tools. Possible threats and damages due to the potential GLOF events from the lake were also analyzed based on numerical results, flood inundation maps and field investigations.     

Historical glacier-dammed lakes and outburst floods in the Karambar valley (Hindukush-Karakoram)

At least six devastating glacial floods occurred in the Karambar valley in the 19th and 20th century. Previously mainly the Karambar glacier was considered as the origin of these outburst floods. However, in this project more detailed investigations revealed that up to eight more tributary glaciers could have dammed the Karambar valley in historical and prehistorical times. The ice-dammed lakes reached an approximate length of up to about 5 km and more. The dense concentration of the glacier dams along a horizontal distance of only 40 km results in a complex interfingering of lake basins and flooded valley sections. In the individual flood events were probably involved almost synchronously the drainage of at least two lakes resulting in a lake outburst cascade. The Karambar case study highlights the characteristic geomorphological landforms of the glacier dams, their lake basins and the geomorphological impact of the outburst floods. The abundant occurrence of unconsolidated sediments mantling the valley flanks caused a high sediment load and enhanced the erosion potential of the flood. The erosion cliffs of sediment cones, up to 100 m high, wash limits along the slopes and longitudinal bars in the gravel floors are main characteristics of the flood landscape. Secondary temporary lake formations (back water ponding) during the flood events in consequence of blockages of the ice- and sediment-loaden flood masses occurred at many locations in the narrower valley sections and lasted for several days. Additionally, debris flows in-between the glacier dams have dammed temporarily the Karambar valley. On the basis of losses of settlement area and eye-witness reports, the extent, erosion rates and characteristics of the 1905 flood event could be reconstructed. In order to warn the villagers living downstream, the Karambar people established an early warning fire system (Puberanch) from Sokther Rabot to Gilgit which was operated until 1905. The reconstructed Karambar flood chronology represents one of the longest records for this region and provides also information on historical and recent glacier oscillations, especially on exceptional glacier advances. At present, the Chateboi glacier seals the Karambar valley over a distance of 4 km. An outburst flood would have disastrous impacts to the human infrastructure as the settlement areas expanded to the flood plains in the last decades.     

Refining the pattern and style of Cordilleran Ice Sheet retreat: palaeogeography,evolution and implications of lateglacial ice‐dammed lake systems on the southern Fraser Plateau,British Columbia,Canada

Decay of the last Cordilleran Ice Sheet (CIS) near its geographical centre has been conceptualized as being dominated by passive downwasting (stagnation), in part because of the lack of large recessional moraines. Yet, multiple lines of evidence, including reconstructions of glacio‐isostatic rebound from palaeoglacial lake shoreline deformation suggest a sloping ice surface and a more systematic pattern of ice‐margin retreat. Here we reconstructed ice‐marginal lake evolution across the subdued topography of the southern Fraser Plateau in order to elucidate the pattern and style of lateglacial CIS decay. Lake stage extent was reconstructed using primary and secondary palaeo‐water‐plane indicators: deltas, spillways, ice‐marginal channels, subaqueous fans and lake‐bottom sediments identified from aerial photograph and digital elevation model interpretation combined with field observations of geomorphology and sedimentology, and ground‐penetrating radar surveys. Ice‐contact indicators, such as ice‐marginal channels, and grounding‐line moraines were used to refine and constrain ice‐margin positions. The results show that ice‐dammed lakes were extensive (average 27 km²; max. 116 km²) and relatively shallow (average 18 m). Within basins successive lake stages appear to have evolved by expansion, decanting or drainage (glacial lake outburst flood, outburst flood or lake maintenance) from southeast to northwest, implicating a systematic northwestward retreating ice margin (rather than chaotic stagnation) back toward the Coast Mountains, similar in style and pattern to that proposed for the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet. This pattern is confirmed by cross‐cutting drainage networks between lake basins and is in agreement with numerical models of North American ice‐sheet retreat and recent hypotheses on lateglacial CIS reorganization during decay. Reconstructed lake systems are dynamic and transitory and probably had significant effects on the dynamics of ice‐marginal retreat, the importance of which is currently being recognized in the modern context of the Greenland Ice Sheet, where >35% of meltwater streams from land‐terminating portions of the ice sheet end in ice‐contact lakes.     

尼泊尔4·25地震震前冰湖制图与潜在危险性分析

由于地震灾害的影响,冰湖上游的冰滑坡、冰崩、滑坡、泥石流会进入湖泊,通过冲击波或抬高水位,造成冰川坝或冰碛坝突然垮塌导致冰湖迅速排水而形成洪水或洪水泥石流.首先基于Landsat8遥感影像通过人工目视解译的方法构建尼泊尔2015年4月25日地震震前冰湖数据,为我国和尼泊尔的抗震救灾提供重要的数据支撑.然后利用历史遥感数据解译获取研究区2015年以前的历史冰湖数据,对历史冰湖数据和2015年的冰湖数据进行地理空间分析,计算其面积变化和长度变化.最后结合尼泊尔2015年4月25日地震峰值地面加速度数据通过空间分析识别地震影响区的潜在危险冰湖.研究表明:研究区面积0.02 km~2的冰湖有1 847个,面积263.18 km~2,其中快速变化冰湖87个,位于地震影响区的潜在危险冰湖49个,应重点关注潜在危险冰湖.     

Subglacial bed conditions during Late Pleistocene glaciations and their impact on ice dynamics in the southern North Sea

Passchier, S., Laban, C., Mesdag, C.S. & Rijsdijk, K.F. 2010: Subglacial bed conditions during Late Pleistocene glaciations and their impact on ice dynamics in the southern North Sea. Boreas, Vol. 39, pp. 633–647. 10.1111/j.1502‐3885.2009.00138.x. ISSN 0300‐9483. Changes in subglacial bed conditions through multiple glaciations and their effect on ice dynamics are addressed through an analysis of glacigenic sequences in the Upper Pleistocene stratigraphy of the southern North Sea basin. During Elsterian (MIS 12) ice growth, till deposition was subdued when ice became stagnant over a permeable substrate of fluvial sediments, and meltwater infiltrated into the bed. Headward erosion during glacial retreat produced a dense network of glacial valleys up to several hundreds of metres deep. A Saalian (MIS 6) glacial advance phase resulted in the deposition of a sheet of stiff sandy tills and terminal moraines. Meltwater was at least partially evacuated through the till layer, resulting in the development of a rigid bed. During the later part of the Saalian glaciation, ice‐stream inception can be related to the development of a glacial lake to the north and west of the study area. The presence of meltwater channels incised into the floors of glacial troughs is indicative of high subglacial water pressures, which may have played a role in the onset of ice streaming. We speculate that streaming ice flow in the later part of the Saalian glaciation caused the relatively early deglaciation, as recorded in the Amsterdam Terminal borehole. These results suggest that changing subglacial bed conditions through glacial cycles could have a strong impact on ice dynamics and require consideration in ice‐sheet reconstructions.     

Middle Pleistocene (Saalian) lake outburst floods in the Münsterland Embayment (NW Germany): impacts and magnitudes

During the late Saalian Drenthe glaciation ice-damming of the Upper Weser Valley led to the formation of glacial Lake Weser. The lake drained catastrophically into the Münsterland Embayment as the western ice dam failed, releasing up to 110 km³ of water with a calculated peak discharge of 2.5 × 10⁵ m³/s to 1.3 × 10⁶ m³/s. Geographic information systems (GIS) and high-resolution digital elevation models (DEM) were used to map streamlined landforms and channel systems in front of lake overspills. Geological maps, 2450 boreholes and the DEM were integrated into the 3D modeling program GOCAD to reconstruct the distribution of flood-related deposits, palaeotopographic surfaces and the internal facies architecture of streamlined hills. The drainage pathways are characterized by the occurrence of deep plunge pools, channels, streamlined hills and 4 km long and 12 m deep V-shaped megaflutes. Plunge pools are deeply incised into Mesozoic basement rocks and occur in front of three major overspill channels. The plunge pools are up to 780 m long, 400 m wide and 35 m deep. Approximately 1–10.5 km downslope of the overspill channels fan shaped arrays of streamlined hills are developed, each covering an area of 60–130 km², indicating rapid flow expansion. The hills commonly have quadrilateral to elongated shapes and formed under submerged to partly submerged flow conditions, when the outburst flood entered a shallow lake in the Münsterland Embayment. Hills are up to 4300 m long, 1200 m wide, 11 m high and have characteristic average aspect ratios of 1:3.3. They are separated by shallow, anabranching channels in the outer zones and up to 30 m deep channels in the central zones. Hills partly display V-shaped chevron-like bedforms that have apices facing upslope, are 1.6–2.5 km long, 3–10 m high, 0.8–1.2 m from limb to limb, with limb separation angels of 20–35°. These bedforms are interpreted as mixed erosional depositional features. It is hypothesized that the post-Saalian landscape evolution of the Münsterland Embayment has considerably been influenced by catastrophic floods of glacial Lake Weser, creating large and deep valleys, which subsequently became the new site of river systems. The outburst floods probably followed the east-west-trending Saalian Rhine-Meuse river system eventually flowing into the North Sea, the Strait of Dover and the Bay of Biscay. It is speculated that the Hondsrug ice stream may have been enhanced or even triggered by the formation and outburst of glacial lakes in the study area.     

金沙江“11·3”白格堰塞湖溃决洪水事件在奔子栏—石鼓段的地貌作用和沉积特征

古堰塞湖溃决洪水事件的重建是当前地学研究的热点问题之一,寻找足够的可参考的现代溃决洪水事件案例是顺利开展这项工作的基础。2018年11月13日发生在金沙江干流的白格堰塞湖超万年一遇的溃决洪水事件(学术界称之为“11·3”白格堰塞湖溃决洪水事件)就是一个难得的样本。这次溃决事件发生在枯水期,洪峰完全由溃决洪水产生,没有叠加其他来源,对评估流域地貌和沉积体系对堰塞溃决事件的响应有很好的参考价值。本文以溃决洪水事件受灾最为严重的奔子栏—石鼓段为研究区,通过详细的野外调查和初步的水力学估算发现“11·3”白格堰塞湖溃决洪水事件在奔子栏—石鼓段的地貌作用主要表现为洪水淹没区的岸坡塌岸和沉积物堆积,未发现明显的基岩侵蚀。沉积物主要由分选良好的具水平纹层的砂组成。受金沙江较低的河床比降影响,洪水产生的基底剪切应力较弱在27~142 N/m²,不能悬浮和搬运直径5 cm以上的砾石,也不能产生明显的磨蚀和冲(撞)击作用。在发生塌岸的部分段落,洪水沉积物中有砾石坠入,甚至会出现类似浊流沉积的层序。这些现象的发现对深入理解堰塞湖溃决洪水的复杂地貌过程和沉积特征有重要参考意义。     

Glacial Lake Outburst Floods in the Nepal Himalaya: A Manageable Hazard?

Within the past fifteen years, glacial lake outburst floods have become an activetopic of discussion within the development community focused on Nepal. Suchfloods endanger thousands of people, hundreds of villages, and basic infrastructuresuch as trails and bridges. The flood risk is also a major impediment to hydroelectricdevelopment in several river basins. Unlike most other mountain hazards in Nepal,reducing the possibility of outburst floods is technically feasible. The first attemptwithin Nepal to reduce the hazard of one lake by artificially lowering its water levelwas partially completed in June 2000. Completing this task and beginning work onother hazardous lakes will require difficult decisions about risk by downstream residentsand substantial investment from the international aid community.     

Debris flows triggered from non-stationary glacier lake outbursts: the case of the Teztor Lake complex (Northern Tian Shan,Kyrgyzstan)

One of the most far-reaching glacier-related hazards in the Tian Shan Mountains of Kyrgyzstan is glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) and related debris flows. An improved understanding of the formation and evolution of glacial lakes and debris flow susceptibility is therefore essential to assess and mitigate potential hazards and risks. Non-stationary glacier lakes may fill periodically and quickly; the potential for them to outburst increases as water volume may change dramatically over very short periods of time. After the outburst or drainage of a lake, the entire process may start again, and thus these non-stationary lakes are of particular importance in the region. In this work, the Teztor lake complex, located in Northern Kyrgyzstan, was selected for the analysis of outburst mechanisms of non-stationary glacial lakes, their formation, as well as the triggering of flows and development of debris flows and floods downstream of the lakes. The different Teztor lakes are filled with water periodically, and according to field observations, they tend to outburst every 9–10 years on average. The most important event in the area dates back to 1953, and another important event occurred on July 31, 2012. Other smaller outbursts have been recorded as well. Our study shows that the recent GLOF in 2012 was caused by a combination of intense precipitation during the days preceding the event and a rapid rise in air temperatures. Analyses of features in the entrainment and depositional zones point to a total debris flow volume of about 200,000 m³, with discharge ranging from 145 to 340 m³ s^?1 and flow velocities between 5 and 7 m s^?1. Results of this study are key for a better design of sound river corridor planning and for the assessment and mitigation of potential GLOF hazards and risks in the region.     

亚洲高山区冰湖溃决洪水事件回顾

冰湖溃决洪水是由冰湖快速大量释水所导致的自然灾害。在全球变暖背景下,亟待建立完整的冰湖溃决洪水数据库,以进一步对冰湖进行危险性评估和风险管理。整理了亚洲高山区（青藏高原及周边地区）的冰湖溃决洪水资料,得出冰湖溃决洪水主要分布在天山山脉、喀喇昆仑山、喜马拉雅山脉、念青唐古拉山、横断山等区域。20世纪以来,亚洲高山区共计发生冰湖溃决洪水277起,其中冰碛湖溃决洪水113起,冰坝湖溃决洪水164起。导致冰碛湖溃决的诱因以冰-雪崩或冰川滑塌为主导,占50.1%,埋藏冰融化或管涌、强降水或上游来水、滑坡-岩崩以及地震占比分别为23.1%、18.5%、7.4%和0.9%。1980年以来,冰碛湖溃决洪水的发生频率呈较弱的增长趋势;但由于发生溃决的冰湖趋于小型化,其溃决水量与洪峰流量在喜马拉雅山脉、天山山脉等地区呈显著下降趋势。2010—2018年间喜马拉雅山脉中段发生8起冰湖溃决洪水事件,远高于天山山脉、喜马拉雅山脉东段和念青唐古拉山等地区,成为新的高发区,是未来重点关注的地区。在未来冰湖溃决洪水频率可能增加的状况下,相关国家和地区在应对冰川灾害、实现区域防灾减灾等方面需要加强沟通交流,共同建立跨区域协调的防灾体系。     

Glacial lakes of the Hinku and Hongu valleys, Makalu Barun National Park and Buffer Zone, Nepal

In recent decades, many of the larger glaciers in the Himalaya and Andes that have experienced increased melting have become glacial lakes. Some of these lakes present a risk of glacial lake outburst floods that can unleash stored lake water and eroded debris, often causing enormous devastation downstream. Many of these new glacial lakes have formed in the Mt. Everest and Makalu Barun National Parks of Nepal, nine of which in the remote Hinku and Hongu valleys have been designated as “potentially dangerous” based on remote sensing analyses. Until recently, however, relatively little ground-based information was available for these lakes, including their physical characteristics, danger level, prospective downstream impacts in the event of an outburst, and mitigation methods appropriate and applicable to remote regions within the Nepal Himalaya. This paper describes three separate, interdisciplinary expeditions to the Hinku and Hongu valleys between 2009 and 2012 that were designed to close these information gaps. Each expedition combined remote sensing with field-based analyses, repeat photography, interviews with local people, bathymetric surveys, ground penetrating radar, and flood modeling. Eight of the “potentially dangerous” lakes surveyed were found to be stable, and one that had escaped mention in previous studies (L464) was found to contain a high risk of an outburst flood. In the data-deficient high mountain world, we suggest that the combined use of sophisticated remote sensing and modeling technologies with traditional, field-based methods can provide the most thorough understanding of glacial lakes possible at this time, including the actual risks that they pose as well as the most appropriate and community-based risk reduction strategies.     

Recurring middle Pleistocene outburst floods in east-central Alaska

Recurring glacial outburst floods from the Yukon-Tanana Upland are inferred from sediments exposed along the Yukon River near the mouth of Charley River in east-central Alaska. Deposits range from imbricate gravel and granules indicating flow locally extending up the Yukon valley, to more distal sediments consisting of at least 10 couplets of planar sands, granules, and climbing ripples with up-valley paleocurrent indicators overlain by massive silt. An interglacial organic silt, occurring within the sequence, indicates at least two flood events are associated with an earlier glaciation, and at least three flood events are associated with a later glaciation which postdates the organic silt. A minimum age for the floods is provided by a glass fission track age of 560,000 ± 80,000 yr on the GI tephra, which occurs 8 m above the flood beds. A maximum age of 780,000 yr for the floods is based on normal magnetic polarity of the sediments. These age constraints allow us to correlate the flood events to the early-middle Pleistocene. And further, the outburst floods indicate extensive glaciation of the Yukon-Tanana Upland during the early-middle Pleistocene, likely representing the most extensive Pleistocene glaciation of the area.     

Response of a mountain‐foreland fluvial system to an advancing ice sheet,southern Poland

In this paper, fluvial deposits of Middle Pleistocene age in the mountain‐foreland area of southern Poland (Eastern Sudetes and Western Carpathians) are studied in order to document the evolution of fluvial systems during the coldest stages of glacial periods when the Scandinavian Ice Sheet advanced far to the south. The focus is on fluvial response to climate change and glacial impact on river system behaviour. Also considered is the tectonic uplift of the mountain part of river catchments and its potential influence on the style of fluvial sedimentation in the fore‐mountain area. Three drainage basins that were active during the Elsterian and Saalian glaciations are investigated. Facies analyses are carried out on thick successions of braided river deposits covered with till or glaciolacustrine sediments, which result in a reconstruction of the fluvial activity synchronous with the ice‐sheet advance. The results suggest that fluvial activity declined prior to ice‐sheet advance into the fore‐mountain area. This climatically induced change is directly recorded in alluvial successions by upward‐decreasing bed thicknesses and grain sizes. River longitudinal profiles were shortened in front of the advancing ice sheet. The base level of the studied rivers, created by the ice‐sheet margin, rose in parallel with glacial advance. As a result, the successive reaches of rivers (degradational, transitional, aggradational) underwent shortening and moved upstream within the catchments. Moreover, tectonically induced local increases of river slopes may have influenced the depositional processes.     

冰湖溃决泥石流的形成、演化与减灾对策

本文分析了主要由冰滑坡和冰崩入湖导致的冰湖溃决的机理和条件.进而,从气候条件、水文条件、终碛堤、冰湖规模、冰滑坡、沟床特征和固体物质补给等方面分析了冰湖溃决泥石流的形成条件和特点,归纳出冰湖溃决泥石流沿程演化的6种模式:溃决洪水-稀性泥石流、溃决洪水-黏性泥石流、溃决洪水-稀性泥石流-黏性泥石流、溃决洪水-黏性泥石流-稀性泥石流、溃决洪水-稀性泥石流-黏性泥石流-稀性泥石流和溃决洪水-黏性泥石流-稀性泥石流-洪水.针对冰湖溃决泥石流突发性强、频度低、洪峰高、流量大、流量过程暴涨暴落、破坏力强和灾害波及范围广等特点,提出了7点减灾对策.     

希夏邦马峰东坡冰川与冰川湖泊变化遥感监测

1977-2003年的遥感影像显示,希夏邦马峰东坡的冰川在迅速退缩,而其相应的冰川湖泊在迅速增大.南部的吉葱普冰川每年的退缩速度57099 m²,冰舌退缩48 m·a^-1,相应的卢姆池米冰湖面积增加速度大约为79048 m²·a^-1;北面的热强冰川退缩速度在63224 m²·a^-1,冰舌退缩71 m·a^-1,相应的扛西错冰湖面积增加约73 425 m²·a^-1.从这两个冰湖的类型和变化分析,认为其具有发生冰川湖泊溃决洪水的潜在危险.     

Lake stratigraphy implies an 80 000 yr delayed melting of buried dead ice in northern Russia

Sediment cores from lakes Kormovoye and Oshkoty in the glaciated region of the Pechora Lowland, northern Russia, reveal sediment gravity flow deposits overlain by lacustrine mud and gyttja. The sediments were deposited mainly during melting of buried glacier ice beneath the lakes. In Lake Kormovoye, differential melting of dead ice caused the lake bottom to subside at different places at different times, resulting in sedimentation and erosion occurring only some few metres apart and at shifting locations, as further melting caused inversion of the lake bottom. Basal radiocarbon dates from the two lakes, ranging between 13 and 9 ka, match with basal dates from other lakes in the Pechora Lowland as well as melting of ice‐wedges. This indicates that buried glacier ice has survived for ca. 80 000 years from the last glaciation of this area at 90 ka until about 13 ka when a warmer climate caused melting of permafrost and buried glacier ice, forming numerous lakes and a fresh‐looking glacial landscape. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Middle Pleistocene glaciolacustrine environment of an ice‐dammed mountain valley,Sudeten Mountains,Poland

This article reports on an Early Saalian proglacial lake formed between the Scandinavian Ice Sheet and the front of the Sudeten Mountains, Poland. Sediments investigated at Mys?ów point to a transition from glacifluvial to glaciolacustrine environments. The bulk of the sediments was deposited in deep‐water Gilbert‐type deltas (A–E complexes). A delta plain (topset) gradually passes into a subaerial plateau and then a clastic shoreline and the subaquatic slope of a prograding delta (foreset). The glaciolacustrine lithofacies represent a number of lake‐basin environments, from marginal subaqueous slopes to distal parts of a subaqueous fan. Glaciolacustrine and glaciodeltaic deposits locally reach ?50–70 m in thickness. Analyses of A–E complexes indicate that the lake existed for more than 130 years and that its origin and evolution were closely connected with the ice front. This case study records lake sedimentation at an ice‐sheet margin with cohesionless gravity flows, turbidity currents, debris‐avalanching and, to a much lesser degree, parapelagic suspension fall‐out and ice‐raft dumping. In the initial stage, the lake extended more than 10 km to the south, and the deposition was relatively slow. In the second stage, recession of the ice sheet caused rapid growth of a delta. The third and ultimate stage coincided with the final glacial recession, with rapid deposition occurring only on the lake bottom. The model of the glaciolacustrine environment presented here may also be applicable to many other proglacial lakes in mountain areas.     

基于HEC-RAS及GIS的川西叠溪古滑坡堰塞湖溃决洪水重建

青藏高原东南缘岷江上游地区地质环境条件十分复杂,滑坡堵江灾害及堰塞湖溃决事件频发,重建其灾害演化过程对于地区性防灾减灾和风险控制具有重要指导意义。以川西岷江上游叠溪古滑坡堰塞湖为研究对象,首先利用高精度DEM和ArcGIS软件重建了叠溪古堰塞湖的原始规模,其原始最大湖水面积为1.1×10⁷ m²,相应的湖容量为2.9×10⁹ m³;然后采用经验公式法和HEC-RAS一维水力学模型重建叠溪古堰塞湖溃决洪水的水力学特征。计算结果表明,HEC-RAS模拟的最大溃决洪水洪峰流量为73 060 m³/s,与经验公式法计算结果(74 500~76 800 m³/s,平均值76 000 m³/s)非常接近,误差小于5%。对应的最大洪水深度和流速分别为70.1 m和16.78 m/s,模拟河段的洪水淹没范围约为6.08 km²。综合误差分析推测的溃决洪峰流量误差范围为69 000~81 000 m³/s。叠溪古滑坡堰塞湖溃决洪水在世界范围内是十分罕见的,其最直接的影响是在下游数公里范围的河谷内形成大量带状或台阶状的溃坝堆积体和巨砾石堆积“阶地”,且这种影响仍延续至今,这与前人关于高能洪水水文特征和沉积特征的研究认识高度一致,证明本研究成果是非常可靠的。此外,本研究还表明,HEC-RAS一维水力模型可用于高山峡谷地区古滑坡堰塞湖溃决洪水重建研究,可为青藏高原东南缘岷江上游古环境重建和地貌演化提供参考。