新疆天山山区降雨的微物理结构特征

使用GBPP-100型雨滴谱仪,于2001年6月12日至7月31日在天山北坡的小渠子气象站和牧业气象试验站,对27次降雨过程进行了雨滴谱观测,共获取了4 719个雨滴谱样本。通过观测资料分析新疆中天山山区积状云、层状云、积状-层状混合云降雨的微物理结构特征。观测分析表明,天山山区降雨雨滴的平均直径0.41~0.55 mm,以积状云最大,混合云次之,层状云最小。最大平均直径0.88~1.12 mm、平均雨强1.18~2.78 mm·h^-1、平均含水量5.23~11.62 g·m^-3,混合云的这三个特征量均为最大。三类云的雨强与数密度呈正相关。积状云、层状云降雨的雨滴谱服从M-P分布,混合云服从Γ分布。由于山区地形的作用,使云中降雨粒子的生长时间受到限制,天山山区降雨小滴浓度高、尺度小,人工降雨潜力大。     

青藏高原北麓河地区降水量观测与对比分析

根据2011年11月至2012年9月通过Thies激光雨滴谱仪、 T-200B雨雪量计和TE525翻斗式雨量筒获取的青藏高原北麓河地区降水量数据, 按3个时间段分别对3种仪器记录的降水量行了对比分析. 结果表明: 激光雨滴谱仪获取的固态降水量与经Jimmy校正公式修正后的T-200B降水量极为接近. 但在测量雨夹雪时, 激光雨滴谱仪对降水类型、 颗粒直径的误判造成了获取的降水量远高于T-200B雨量筒. 而3种仪器获取的液态降水量有很好的一致性. 但是, 当小时降雨量在2 mm以上时, 激光雨滴谱仪获取的降雨量比T-200B和TE525雨量筒小20%左右. 同时, 在风吹雪对激光雨滴谱仪的影响方面做了相关的分析研究, 初步认为风吹雪的颗粒直径主要集中在0.5 mm以下.     

边坡离心模型试验中的降雨模拟研究

为了在离心机试验中模拟降雨引起的滑坡,设计和使用了一套降雨模拟系统。这套系统的构成主要是针对离心试验的特殊要求进行设计的。所采用的特殊技术可以均匀分配雨水,将雨滴的尺寸效益和科氏加速度引起的雨滴偏移最小化,实现了不同强度和历时的降雨模拟。通过一个降雨条件下砂土边坡的离心模型试验,成功应用了该套降雨模拟系统,研究了边坡中的降雨入渗过程。     

Advances in Microphysical features and Measurement Techniques of Raindrops

The size, fall velocity, shape, axis ratio, oscillation, orientation, and their spatial distributions of raindrops are the key parameters for study of rainfall physics, which also have great significance in these fields such as research on the mechanism of soil erosion, calibration of weather radar, classification of present weather, evaluation of rainfall enhancement, and determination of channel in radio communication and navigation systems. This paper reviews the history of measurement technology and method of raindrops’ microphysical features firstly, discusses the status and shortcomings of laboratory wind tunnel experiment, optical disdrometer, and other measurement techniques and theory for the raindrops’ microphysical features, and then the shape, fall velocity, oscillation, and orientation of raindrops are analyzed. Existing disdrometers cannot measure the all the micro-physical characteristics of raindrops, which limit the application of raindrops micro physical characteristics in related area. At last from the point of view of relative area and application, the prospect of the future development trend of raindrops microphysics measurement techniques is concluded.     

坡面降雨溅蚀及其模拟

对雨滴的溅蚀过程及影响因素作了全面的分析。在揭示黄土地区梁峁上部雨蚀规律的基础上,运用牛顿第二运动定律,推导出雨滴对土粒撞击力的表达式。在假定雨滴溅蚀率与雨滴侵蚀力成线性关系情况下,推导出雨滴溅蚀量表达式,经桥沟流域径流场上应用,效果令人满意。     

红外辐射在雨中的衰减

利用红外光谱辐射计在大气窗口对连续性降水的红外辐射衰减作了测量，结果表明雨对光的衰减与降雨强度密切相关，根据测量结果得到了红外辐射在雨中衰减的定量关系式。并利用Ｍａｒｓｈａｌ－Ｐａｌｍｅｒ雨滴尺度谱分布，计算了红外辐射在雨中的衰减，考虑雨的前向散射修正后，计算结果与测量结果符合得较好     

湿度效应及其对降水中δ18O季节分布的影响

提出了湿度效应的概念,即降水中稳定同位素比率与大气的温度露点差ΔT_d存在显著的正相关关系.对两个气候特征完全不同的取样站乌鲁木齐和昆明降水中δ¹⁸O与温度露点差之间的关系进行了分析,尽管两站的δ¹⁸O与ΔT_d的季节变化存在差异,但它们的湿度效应是显著的.利用稳定同位素动力分馏模型并根据500hPa月平均温度的季节分布对昆明站云中凝结物中δ¹⁸O进行了模拟,模拟的月平均δ¹⁸O与月平均温度的变化具有非常好的一致性,说明昆明站云中凝结物中的氧稳定同位素具有温度效应.这个结果与地面降水中氧稳定同位素的降水量效应截然不同.昆明站降水中δ¹⁸O一定程度上指示大气的干湿状况,同时也间接地指示降水量的多寡或季风的强弱.湿度效应的存在,影响降落雨滴中稳定同位素蒸发富集的强度以及雨滴与大气之间稳定同位素物质迁移的方向.它不仅改变降水中稳定同位素比率的大小,也改变其季节分布的特点.     

泥沙输移与坡面降雨和径流能量的关系

从导致土壤侵蚀的降雨和径流能量出发,提出了基于物理学原理的降雨能和径流能的概念,并采用人工模拟降雨实验,分析了泥沙输移与降雨和径流能的关系,结果显示:坡面薄层径流泥沙剥蚀量随着地表坡度、降雨能和径流能的增加而增加,雨滴击溅作用下泥沙剥蚀量远远大于无雨滴击溅作用时泥沙剥蚀量;薄层水流泥沙浓度随着坡度和降雨能的增加而增加,当坡度和降雨能一定时,泥沙浓度随着径流能的增加而减小;降雨扰动系数与降雨和径流能的比值按照对数关系增长,在相同坡度下,当降雨能一定时,降雨扰动系数随着径流能的增加而减小,当径流能一定时,降雨扰动系数随着降雨能的增加而增加。降雨能是导致泥沙剥离的本质,径流能是泥沙搬运的动力。     

滑坡预警中的降水时空变异性——以云南头寨沟为例

目前已有大量不同尺度的临界降水标准对区域性滑坡进行预警,但仍存在预警空间外延性差、时间精度低、临界降水阈值不科学等问题。针对当前构建的临界降水阈值实现滑坡预警模型,以云南昭通盘河流域头寨沟为例,在研究区两个不同海拔高度位置分别布设气象站,进行了为期一年的降水观测,并比较了研究区两个不同位置的降水特征。结果表明:研究区降水梯度高达190 mm/hm,两个不同海拔位置降水变异性显著;降水持时是造成山上(2#站)与山下(1#站)次降水量差异的主要影响因素;发生小雨时2#站与1#站的降水差异性很小,但1#站发生中雨及以上的降水事件时,2#站的降水等级比1#站高1~2个等级,且有59.26%的概率会发生大雨或者暴雨;1#站为暴雨时,2#站100.00%概率为暴雨甚至大暴雨;2#站与1#站夜间降水均大于白昼,且强降水事件多发生于夜间。     

四川盆地降水日变化特征分析和个例模拟

利用台站观测降水资料,分析四川盆地及周边地区降水分布和日变化特征,得到以下结论:四川地区降水存在2个高值中心,均位于盆地周围的山地;盆地降水"夜雨"特征明显;川西高原降水峰值以午夜前降水量的贡献为主;盆中与盆地西南边缘山地的降水峰值由夜间降水量与降水频率共同作用;盆地东北边缘的山地是午前降水频率与后半夜的降水量均有贡献。其次,结合WRF模式的数值试验,对2008年9月23～24日发生在盆地的夜间暴雨过程进行模拟研究和综合分析。结果表明WRF模式较好地模拟了此次天气过程降水的空间分布和日变化规律,通过分析模拟的环流场与温湿场发现,夜雨的形成与大尺度环流场的影响和地形强迫关系密切。     

Rainfall intensity characteristics at coastal and high altitude stations in Kerala

Rainfall intensities measured at a few stations in Kerala during 2001–2005 using a disdrometer were found to be in reasonable agreement with the total rainfall measured using a manual rain gauge. The temporal distributions of rainfall intensity at different places and during different months show that rainfall is of low intensity (< 10 mm/hr), 65% to 90% of the time. This could be an indication of the relative prevalence of stratiform and cumuliform clouds. Rainfall was of intensity < 5 mm/hr for more than 95% of the time in Kochi in July 2002, which was a month seriously deficient in rainfall, indicating that the deficiency was probably due to the relative absence of cumuliform clouds. Cumulative distribution graphs are also plotted and fitted with the Weibull distribution. The fit parameters do not appear to have any consistent pattern. The higher intensities also contributed significantly to total rainfall most of the time, except in Munnar (a hill station). In this analysis also, the rainfall in Kochi in July 2002 was found to have less presence of high intensities. This supports the hypothesis that the rainfall deficiency was probably caused by the absence of conditions that favoured the formation of cumuliform clouds.     

Dust,clouds, rain types,and climatic variations in tropical north Africa

Dust and processes of raindrop formation in the clouds play a very important role in the climatic evolution of tropical north Africa. Sedimentologic, stratigraphic, pedologic, geomorphologic, and palynologic data converge to show that a major environmental change occurred in tropical Africa about 7000 yr B.P. In the Sudanian and Sudano-Guinean zones (wet tropical zone), from 15,000 to 7000 yr B.P., rivers deposited mostly clay, while from 7000 to 4000 yr B.P. they deposited mostly sand. During the first period, pedogenesis was vertisolic (montmorillonite dominant), associated with pollen belonging mostly to vegetation typical of hydromorphic soils, while during the second period pedogenesis was of ferruginous type (kaolinite dominant) with pollen belonging mostly to vegetation typical of well-drained soils. The great change near 7000 yr B.P. is linked chiefly to a major hydrological change that appears related to a change in the size of raindrops: from fine rains associated with considerable atmospheric dust (raindrop diameter essentially less than 2 mm) to the second period associated with thunderstorm rains (raindrop diameter mostly greater than 2 mm). The size of raindrops is related particularly to cloud thickness and dust concentration in the troposphere. Thunderstorm activity is influenced also by fluctuations of the atmospheric electricity, modulated by the sun.     

基于最大熵理论的降雨SPI研究

为了克服目前对标准化降水指数(SPI)计算必须首先假设服从某种分布的不足,依据最大熵理论分布对SPI进行计算,以东江流域为例,分别利用最大熵理论分布、Gamma分布、Weibull分布以及对数正态分布四种概率密度函数拟合多年不同时间尺度的降雨数据,并利用AIC、KS、AD法进行拟合度检验,最后将最大熵理论分布与Gamma分布计算的SPI结果进行对比分析。结果表明:相对于其他三种分布,最大熵理论分布的概率密度函数更适用于东江流域15个站点的3、6、12个月的降雨分布;在极端干旱(洪涝)的情况下,相对于Gamma分布,最大熵理论分布的SPI值更小(大),表明其对极端干旱(洪涝)的识别更为敏感。     

基于WEB的浙江省降雨型滑坡预警预报系统

滑坡发生的最主要诱发因素是降雨.基于浙江省淳安、磐安、庆元和永嘉4个县的历史滑坡资料, 在研究降雨量、降雨强度和降雨过程与滑坡灾害的空间分布、时间上的对应关系, 建立起滑坡灾害时空分布与降雨过程的统计关系, 确定区域性滑坡的临界降雨量和降雨强度阀值的基础上, 开发出了降雨型滑坡预警预报系统, 其中采用临界降雨量模型和有效降雨量模型来进行预警预报.系统留给浙江省气象台一个传送数据的接口, 气象台将每天按时上传降雨数据, 数据保存在后台数据库MicrosoftSQLServer中.建成的系统能够自动获取数据库中的数据生成时间与降雨量实时曲线, 当降雨量达到降雨强度阀值时, 触发MAPGIS图件, 在Internet上发布区域预警预报信息, 并提供预警措施.      

长江流域降水稳定同位素的云下二次蒸发效应

对长江流域443个GNIP的降水样品同位素原始资料,分降雪和降雨进行δ2H和δ18O线性回归,得到降雪样品的相关方程为δ2H=7.965δ18O+17.114,有最大的斜率和截距;而降雨样品根据降水量大小从<10mm至>300mm分为4组后,得到的相关方程随着降水量的减小,斜率和截距均减小,斜率从7.701减小为5.705,截距从7.812×10-3减小为-5.479×10-3。δ2H~δ18O相关方程的斜率及截距与气温、水汽压之间的关系表明,在降水从云层底部降落到地面的过程中,仅较小降雨事件有明显的二次蒸发现象,并伴随着同位素的分馏。长江流域较小降雨事件占有比例很小,仅为所有降水事件的6.32%,所以二次蒸发效应仅引起地区大气降水方程斜率和截距的微弱减小。研究表明,单个降水原始资料的同位素分析,能产生长期加权平均降水同位素分析得不到的宝贵信息。     

Normal and lognormal data distribution in geochemistry: death of a myth. Consequences for the statistical treatment of geochemical and environmental data

All variables of several large data sets from regional geochemical and environmental surveys were tested for a normal or lognormal data distribution. As a general rule, almost all variables (up to more than 50 analysed chemical elements per data set) show neither a normal or a lognormal data distribution. Even when different transformation methods are used more than 70 % of all variables in every single data set do not approach a normal distribution. Distributions are usually skewed, have outliers and originate from more than one process. When dealing with regional geochemical or environmental data normal and/or lognormal distributions are an exception and not the rule. This observation has serious consequences for the further statistical treatment of geochemical and environmental data. The most widely used statistical methods are all based on the assumption that the studied data show a normal or lognormal distribution. Neglecting that geochemcial and environmental data show neither a normal or lognormal distribution will lead to biased or faulty results when such techniques are used. Received: 21 June 1999 · Accepted: 14 August 1999     

1961-2016年四川地区不同量级不同持续时间降水的 时空特征分析

利用四川地区122站逐日降水数据,采用均值、气候趋势系数等统计方法,对1961-2016年不同量级不同持续时间降水的空间和时间变化特征进行了分析,结果表明：盆地和攀西地区小雨、中雨、大雨和总暴雨所占年降水量比例接近,高原地区小雨降水量约占50%以上,中雨约40%,大雨约10%;整个四川地区小雨日数占总降水日数75%以上,量级越高降水日数越少。年降水量在盆地和攀西地区为减少趋势,高原则相反,年降水日数除了在高原局部微弱增加外其他地区皆减少且大部分区域减少趋势通过99%的显著性水平检验,这种趋势显著性主要体现在小雨量级降水。随着降水量级的增加,高原、盆地东北、攀西和盆地东南的部分地区出现了降水量和降水次数增加趋势,这可能说明高原地区年降水量的增加由小雨量级降水效率以及中雨和大雨降水次数增加导致,盆地和攀西部分地区年降水量的增加主要由降水量级大的降水次数增加导致。     

Daily rainfall statistics of TRMM and CMORPH: A case for trans-boundary Gandak River basin

Satellite precipitation products offer an opportunity to evaluate extreme events (flood and drought) for areas where rainfall data are not available or rain gauge stations are sparse. In this study, daily precipitation amount and frequency of TRMM 3B42V.7 and CMORPH products have been validated against daily rain gauge precipitation for the monsoon months (June–September or JJAS) from 2005–2010 in the trans-boundary Gandak River basin. The analysis shows that the both TRMM and CMORPH can detect rain and no-rain events, but they fail to capture the intensity of rainfall.     

Rainfall induced debris flows in pyroclastic deposits, Campania (southern Italy)

A combination of empirical and physically based hydrological models has been used to analyze historical data on rainfall and debris-flow occurrence in western Campania, to examine the correlation between rainfall and debris-flow events.

Rainfall data from major storms recorded in recent decades in western Campania were compiled, including daily series from several rain gauges located inside landslide areas, supplemented by hourly rainfall data from some of the principal storms.

A two-phase approach is proposed. During phase 1, soil moisture levels have been modelled as the hydrological balance between precipitation and evapotranspiration, on a daily scale, using the method of Thornthwaite [Geograph. Rev. 38 (1948) 55].

Phase 2 is related to the accumulation of surplus moisture from intense rainfall, leading to the development of positive pore pressures. These interactions take place on an hourly time scale by the “leaky barrel” (LB) model described by Wilson and Wiezoreck [Env. Eng. Geoscience, 1 (1995) 11]. In combination with hourly rainfall records, the LB model has been used to compare hydrological effects of different storms. The critical level of retained rain water has been fixed by the timing of debris-flow activity, related to recorded storm events.

New rainfall intensity–duration thresholds for debris-flow initiation in western Campania are proposed. These thresholds are related to individual rain gauge and assume a previously satisfied field capacity condition. The new thresholds are somewhat higher than those plotted by previous authors, but are thought to be more accurate and thus need less conservatism.     

卫星降雨数据在高山峡谷地区的代表性与可靠性

以长江上游金沙江流域典型高山峡谷地区为研究对象,用该区域地面观测降雨量数据对TRMM PR 3B42 V6产品进行了3 h、日、月3个时间尺度的有效性评估,旨在为开展区域卫星与地面降水数据融合的流域水文模拟及预报奠定数据基础。分别采用了线性回归方法分析降雨量相关性、经验正交函数-奇异值分解方法(EOF-SVD)分析降雨量主要模态空间分布特征、相对偏差B_ias、错报率R_FA和探测率P_D指标对该卫星产品进行了精度评定。研究结果表明:研究区该卫星产品与地面观测数据在3个时间尺度存在显著的线性时间和空间相关性,但相关程度随时间尺度的减小而减弱;二者在空间分布上总体具有一致性特征,但在高海拔、大坡度区域表现出较为显著的差异;相对偏差指标显示2008-2010年降雨量均值相对偏差在±10%的概率密度百分数为36.08%;随高程的增加,卫星数据R_FA呈逐渐增加趋势变化,P_D呈逐渐减小趋势变化;总体上小雨对误差的贡献最大,大雨峰值误差贡献次之,时段降雨量偏差随时间尺度的增加逐渐减小,而随高程的增加卫星数据的探测精度下降。因此,对于类似的高山峡谷流域,要应用该卫星产品进行日、3 h尺度水文模拟及预报,有必要对流域卫星数据和地面观测数据进行融合,充分发挥两种数据的优势。