后疫情时期全球铁矿资源格局分析

铁是我国用量最大、用途最广的金属,新冠肺炎疫情期间国际铁矿石市场出现较多新变化,分析国际铁矿石供需和市场格局变化原因,研判未来趋势,对于保障我国铁矿石资源稳定供应具有重要意义.本文首先分析了新冠肺炎疫情下,全球钢铁产量、铁矿石供应和价格变化趋势,分析发现受新冠肺炎疫情影响,全球铁矿石供需格局进一步集中,呈现"两个国家,两个60％"的格局.即中国钢铁产量在全球地位将进一步提升,接近60％;澳大利亚对全球铁矿海运市场供应地位进一步提升,接近60％.其次,本文预测了未来2～3年中国和全球钢铁需求变化趋势,认为近年来中国钢铁产量增加的主要原因是国家稳定经济增长的需要,未来2～3年我国钢铁产量仍将保持高位,但长期来看我国铁矿石需求高位运行一段时间后降会缓慢下降.最后本文分析了全球铁矿石价格趋势,认为全球铁矿石价格将在2020年4季度冲高回落至100 USD/t以内,未来2～3年铁矿价格将缓慢震荡回落,铁矿价格平台将下移至60～80 USD/t之间.     

北京市铁矿资源形势及找矿方向

目前,我国年钢铁产量快速增长,造成市场上铁矿石供小于求,价格快速上扬。铁矿为北京市允许开采矿种,保有储量仅2亿吨,可供现有铁矿山开采35年,因此应加大铁矿资源的勘查力度,增添新的矿产地,满足钢铁生产的需求。北京密云、怀柔北部山区的变质岩中鞍山式铁矿石,为主要找矿方向。     

京津冀地区铁矿石需求预测

京津冀是我国钢铁生产加工的重要区域,其铁矿石需求一直是该地区钢铁产业发展的热点问题.本文利用"S"形预测法,在中国粗钢供需预测基础上,参照该地区粗钢产量的全国占比和生铁粗钢比,重点测算了河北省生铁产量和铁矿石需求量,进而预测未来京津冀地区的铁矿石需求量.预测2025年、2030年和2035年京津冀地区的铁矿石需求量分别为3.42亿t、3.02亿t和2.68亿t,需求的峰值点在2022年左右,届时需求约为3.81亿t.据此,提出尽早布局保障铁矿石供应安全等建议.     

基于BIF条带状铁建造矿化特征的国际铁矿石盈亏平衡运营成本定量研究

国内外铁矿石价格对标基准多采用离岸价或到岸价,而非盈亏平衡运营成本,难以揭示我国铁矿石所面对的真实市场承压价格。为了厘清国际一线生产商的铁矿石盈亏平衡运营成本价格,本文对世界上最重要的条带状铁建造(BIF)矿产地——西澳哈默斯利盆地高品位赤铁矿矿床的矿化特征及代表性铁矿石产品展开系统研究,同时引入巴西铁四角地区的铁英岩型赤铁矿矿石作为对照,分析全球典型高品位赤铁矿矿石经济指标。结合前人研究成果,将西澳哈默斯利盆地与BIF相关的高品位赤铁矿的富集矿化类型划分为假象赤铁矿-针铁矿、微板状赤铁矿与河道沉积型赤铁矿,巴西铁四角主要为铁英岩型赤铁矿。上述各矿化类型对应的铁矿石产品的铁元素含量均高于56%;在杂质元素含量上,假象赤铁矿-针铁矿的磷含量高,微板状赤铁矿的磷、硫含量较高,河道沉积型赤铁矿的磷、硫含量较低,铁英岩型赤铁矿含锰。经定量估算,西澳力拓、必和必拓、FMG和巴西淡水河谷的铁矿石盈亏平衡运营成本价格分别为34.66、36.76、47.35、38.07美元/干吨,可为中国海外权益铁矿项目开发提供运营成本的参考。     

漫谈国外富铁矿的找矿

铁矿床的工业类型很多,但最重要、储量最大的,则是前寒武纪沉积变质铁矿.据报道,该类型铁矿占国外铁矿石总储量的60%以上,其中相当大的一部分是富铁矿.国外对沉积变质型的富铁矿一直都很重视,近年来在找矿和开发方面进展较大.例如,目前世界上已知最大的苏联库尔斯克铁矿区,总面积12万平方公里,断续延长600多公里,已探明的铁矿石储量426亿吨(铁品位32～62%),其中富铁矿(铁品位54～62%)储量261亿吨,占全苏富铁矿储量的70%以上.克里沃罗格是苏联的另一个重要铁矿区,面积300平方公里,绵延长达100多公里,平衡表内铁矿石储量200亿吨,其中富铁矿约20亿吨.其他如美国的上湖地区,印度的比哈尔-奥里萨邦铁矿带,巴西的米纳斯-日赖斯,加拿大的拉布拉多地槽和巴芬     

世界铁矿资源

据联合国资料,按照1970年的状况,世界铁矿资源估计为7800亿吨(其中储量为2510亿吨).其中约有80%集中在苏联、美国和南美.组成上述资源的矿石类型有:赤铁矿矿石(占22%),磁铁矿矿石(10%),针铁矿矿石(15%),其余的属于混合矿石.1850～1974年的125年间,铁矿石的需要是210亿吨,而到2000年的25年间则为480亿吨(以钢产量每年增长5%计).对铁矿石需要量的增长,促进了巴西、澳大利亚、非洲、加拿大和其他国     

应用电子探针研究蒙其古尔铀矿床含矿砂岩岩石学特征及铀矿物分布规律

国内外铁矿石价格对标基准多采用离岸价或到岸价,而非盈亏平衡运营成本,难以揭示我国铁矿石所面对的真实市场承压价格。为了厘清国际一线生产商的铁矿石盈亏平衡运营成本价格,本文对世界上最重要的条带状铁建造（BIF）矿产地——西澳哈默斯利盆地高品位赤铁矿矿床的矿化特征及代表性铁矿石产品展开系统研究,同时引入巴西铁四角地区的铁英岩型赤铁矿矿石作为对照,分析全球典型高品位赤铁矿矿石经济指标。结合前人研究成果,将西澳哈默斯利盆地与BIF相关的高品位赤铁矿的富集矿化类型划分为假象赤铁矿-针铁矿、微板状赤铁矿与河道沉积型赤铁矿,巴西铁四角主要为铁英岩型赤铁矿。上述各矿化类型对应的铁矿石产品的铁元素含量均高于56%;在杂质元素含量上,假象赤铁矿-针铁矿的磷含量高,微板状赤铁矿的磷、硫含量较高,河道沉积型赤铁矿的磷、硫含量较低,铁英岩型赤铁矿含锰。经定量估算,西澳力拓、必和必拓、FMG和巴西淡水河谷的铁矿石盈亏平衡运营成本价格分别为34.66、36.76、47.35、38.07美元/干吨,可为中国海外权益铁矿项目开发提供运营成本的参考。     

西非铁矿资源现状及潜力分析

西非是世界上铁矿资源最为丰富的地区之一,铁矿石总资源量可达649.5亿吨,占全球8％,主要分布于马恩地盾和雷圭巴特地盾,以几内亚、塞拉利昂、利比里亚和毛里塔尼亚四国最为丰富,成因类型以BIF型为主.公开资料显示,目前有43家公司投资开发73个西非铁矿项目,其中中国庆华集团、宝武集团、赢联盟集团、中国铝业和中投资本公司等五家中资企业拥有权益资源量达217.5亿吨,形成与西非本土8国和西方7国公司三足鼎立的局势.基于标普数据库和各公司最新年报统计,发现近10年西非铁矿石年均产量为0.2亿吨,世界占比不足0.1％.目前大部分矿山处于暂停开发或暂时搁置状态,仅有21个铁矿山处于活跃状态.其中,中资企业控制的五个项目中也只有唐克里里铁矿处于开发状态.基于西非地质和航磁资料,利用证据权模型,预测在90％、50％和10％置信水平下,西非地区未发现铁矿床数量分别为63个、92个和324个,铁矿石预测资源量分别为264.6亿吨、386.4亿吨和1360.8亿吨.     

后疫情时代全球石油供需格局研究

2017年以来,全球石油消费持续疲软,消费增速呈逐渐下降的趋势,新冠肺炎疫情对石油需求的打击更是"雪上加霜".本文回顾了疫情发生以来国际原油价格及大型油气公司股票价格的走势,探讨了疫情对全球石油需求和供应市场的影响,研判了短期及中长期全球石油供需格局,得出了三点结论:(1)疫情对全球石油需求产生重大冲击,预计2020年全球石油需求较2019年将下降5％,未来随着全球经济逐步恢复,全球石油消费将缓慢回升,预计到2030年全球石油消费将达到峰值48.7亿t;(2)未来3～5年,全球石油产量将大于需求量,全球石油市场供大于求的局面仍将持续;(3)中长期来看,若国际原油价格持续在低价位震荡,将会造成上游勘探开发投入不足,英国、俄罗斯及亚洲等国家的部分老油田产量将持续下滑,全球石油市场将趋紧.     

中国查明铁矿资源储量的数量、 分布及保障程度分析

以中国2005年的铁矿资源储量库为基础, 以辽宁、河北、四川、山西、内蒙、北京、安徽、山东、湖北9省(市、区)为重点, 分析总结了我国查明铁矿区、累计查明铁资源储量和铁保有资源储量的数量和分布特点、占有情况及保障程度。结果表明：我国铁矿保有资源储量大, 在数量上是可以保障钢铁工业的需求的;这些保有资源储量中的大多数选矿容易, 开采利用在技术上是可行的;虽然我国铁矿资源总体上属贫矿, 但在当前市场价格如此之高的情况下, 开采利用是经济的。为了缓解目前铁矿石市场供不应求的局面, 减少对外依存度, 建议加大国内矿山开发力度, 提高铁矿石产量, 重点在辽宁鞍山?本溪地区、河北冀东?密云地区、四川西昌?攀枝花地区、安徽宁芜地区扩大采选能力。     

Development and Utilization of the World’s and China’s Bulk Mineral Resources and their Supply and Demand Situation in the Next Twenty Years

Bulk mineral resources of iron ores, copper ores, bauxite, lead ores, zinc ores and potassium salt play a pivotal role on the world’s and China’s economic development. This study analyzed and predicted their resources base and potential, development and utilization and their world’s and China’s supply and demand situation in the future 20 years. The supply and demand of these six bulk mineral products are generally balanced, with a slight surplus, which will guarantee the stability of the international mineral commodity market supply. The six mineral resources(especially iron ores and copper ores) are abundant and have a great potential, and their development and utilization scale will gradually increase. Till the end of 2014, the reserveproduction ratio of iron, copper, bauxite, lead, zinc ores and potassium salt was 95 years, 42 years, 100 years, 17 years, 37 years and 170 years, respectively. Except lead ores, the other five types all have reserve-production ratio exceeding 20 years, indicative of a high resources guarantee degree. If the utilization of recycled metals is counted in, the supply of the world’s six mineral products will exceed the demand in the future twenty years. In 2015–2035, the supply of iron ores, refined copper, primary aluminum, refined lead, zinc and potassium salt will exceed their demand by 0.4–0.7 billion tons(Gt), 5.0–6.0 million tons(Mt), 1.1–8.9 Mt, 1.0–2.0 Mt, 1.2–2.0 Mt and 4.8–5.6 Mt, respectively. It is predicted that there is no problem with the supply side of bulk mineral products such as iron ores, but local or structural shortage may occur because of geopolitics, monopoly control, resources nationalism and trade friction. Affected by China’s compressed industrialized development model, the demand of iron ores(crude steel), potassium salt, refined lead, refined copper, bauxite(primary aluminum) and zinc will gradually reach their peak in advance. The demand peak of iron ores(crude steel) will reach around 2015, 2016 for potassium salt, 2020 for refined lead, 2021 for bauxite(primary aluminum), 2022 for refined copper and 2023 for zinc. China’s demand for iron ores(crude steel), bauxite(primary aluminum) and zinc in the future 20 years will decline among the world’s demand, while that for refined copper, refined lead and potassium salt will slightly increase. The demand for bulk mineral products still remains high. In 2015–2035, China’s accumulative demand for iron ores(crude steel) will be 20.313 Gt(13.429 Gt), 0.304 Gt for refined copper, 2.466 Gt(0.616 Gt) of bauxite(primary aluminum), 0.102 Gt of refined lead, 0.138 Gt of zinc and 0.157 Gt of potassium salt, and they account for the world’s YOY(YOY) accumulative demand of 35.17%, 51.09%, 48.47%, 46.62%, 43.95% and 21.84%, respectively. This proportion is 49.40%, 102.52%, 87.44%, 105.65%, 93.62% and 106.49% of that in 2014, respectively. From the supply side of China’s bulk mineral resources, it is forecasted that the accumulative supply of primary(mine) mineral products in 2015–2035 is 4.046 Gt of iron ores, 0.591 Gt of copper,1.129 Gt of bauxite, 63.661 Mt of(mine) lead, 0.109 Gt of(mine) zinc and 0.128 Gt of potassium salt, which accounts for 8.82%, 13.92%, 26.67%, 47.09%, 33.04% and 15.56% of the world’s predicted YOY production, respectively. With the rapid increase in the smelting capacity of iron and steel and alumina, the rate of capacity utilization for crude steel, refined copper, alumina, primary aluminum and refined lead in 2014 was 72.13%, 83.63%, 74.45%, 70.76% and 72.22%, respectively. During 2000–2014, the rate of capacity utilization for China’s crude steel and refined copper showed a generally fluctuating decrease, which leads to an insufficient supply of primary mineral products. It is forecasted that the supply insufficiency of iron ores in 2015–2035 is 17.44 Gt, 0.245 Gt of copper in copper concentrates, 1.337 Gt of bauxite, 38.44 Mt of lead in lead concentrates and 29.19 Mt of zinc in zinc concentrates. China has gradually raised the utilization of recycled metals, which has mitigated the insufficient supply of primary metal products to some extent. It is forecasted that in 2015–2035 the accumulative utilization amount of steel scrap(iron ores) is 3.27 Gt(5.08 Gt), 70.312 Mt of recycled copper, 0.2 Gt of recycled aluminum, 48 Mt of recycled lead and 7.7 Mt of recycled zinc. The analysis on the supply and demand situation of China’s bulk mineral resources in 2015–2035 suggests that the supply-demand contradiction for these six types of mineral products will decrease, indicative of a generally declining external dependency. If the use of recycled metal amount is counted in, the external dependency of China’s iron, copper, bauxite, lead, zinc and potassium salt will be 79%, 65%, 26%, 8%, 16% and 18% in 2014, respectively. It is predicted that this external dependency will decrease to 62%, 64%, 20%,-0.93%, 16% and 14% in 2020, respectively, showing an overall decreasing trend. We propose the following suggestions correspondingly.(1) The demand peak of China’s crude steel and potassium salt will reach during 2015–2023 in succession. Mining transformation should be planned and deployed in advance to deal with the arrival of this demand peak.(2) The supply-demand contradiction of China’s bulk mineral resources will mitigate in the future 20 years, and the external dependency will decrease accordingly. It is suggested to adjust the mineral resources management policies according to different minerals and regions, and regulate the exploration and development activities.(3) China should further establish and improve the forced mechanism of resolving the smelting overcapacity of steel, refined copper, primary aluminum, lead and zinc to really achieve the goal of "reducing excess production capacity".(4) In accordance with the national strategic deployment of "One Belt One Road", China should encourage the excess capacity of steel, copper, alumina and primary aluminum enterprises to transfer to those countries or areas with abundant resources, high energy matching degree and relatively excellent infrastructure. Based on the national conditions, mining condition and geopolitics of the resources countries, we will gradually build steel, copper, aluminum and lead-zinc smelting bases, and potash processing and production bases, which will promote the excess capacity to transfer to the overseas orderly.(5) It is proposed to strengthen the planning and management of renewable resources recycling and to construct industrial base of renewable metal recycling.(6) China should promote the comprehensive development and utilization of paragenetic and associated mineral species to further improve the comprehensive utilization of bulk mineral resources.     

矿产资源开发利用上线划定方法与应用研究

加快构建自然(矿产)资源上线,实行资源总量管理,是资源领域贯彻落实中央关于生态文明建设和实现经济转型发展的具体措施.本文分析了矿产资源开发利用上线划定的影响因素,引入开发利用强度和开发利用强度指数,构建了开发利用强度指标体系.以大宗战略性矿产铁矿为例,运用层次分析法对2009—2018年我国铁矿开发利用强度进行了评价,计算并划定了铁矿开发利用强度指数上线.构建了铁矿开发利用上线模型,并在分析钢铁产业发展趋势的基础上基于合理假设划定了未来我国铁矿开发利用上线,研究结果表明,到2020年、2025年、2030年和2035年,我国铁矿石开发利用上线分别为9.03亿吨、8.62亿吨、8.21亿吨和7.9亿吨.     

中国锰业存在的主要问题及对策建议

随着中国经济的发展,我国锰矿消费增长迅速,进口锰矿石量快速攀升,对外依存度已从2010年的47%攀升到2019年的82%,呈逐年上升的趋势。本文在系统收集并总结我国锰矿资源及开发利用现状、资源潜力及供需现状等资料的基础上,依据钢铁产量与锰矿消费之间的线性关系,对未来我国锰矿需求进行了预测,并对影响我国锰业安全的主要问题进行了梳理。针对存在的问题,提出了建立大中型锰矿资源基地、提高锰矿资源查明率、优化锰产业结构、降低锰资源消费、加大"走出去"力度,以及建立国家资源储备体系等对策建议,以此提高我国锰业安全保障程度,缓解我国锰矿资源供应不足的问题。在此基础上,在我国主要锰矿矿集区内,划分了重点勘查区,并提出了锰矿勘查工作部署建议。     

全球铁矿床主要成因类型特征与重要分布区带研究

中国是全球铁矿石第一消费大国,每年进口铁矿石量已超过9亿t,进口量超过全球铁矿石贸易量的60%,对全球铁矿主要类型特征及重要分布区带总结和潜力分析研究具有重要的理论和现实意义。本文总结了全球铁矿资源的禀赋特征,将全球铁矿床分为BIF相关型、沉积型、火山成因型、岩浆型、接触交代-热液型（矽卡岩型）5种成因类型,重点总结分析了BIF相关型和火山成因型铁矿地质特征、成因和找矿标志等。根据铁矿床产出的大地构造单元、地层层序、含矿建造特征及矿床类型、成矿时代等综合因素,在全球主要大地构造单元中共圈出33个铁矿分布区,47个铁矿重要分布区带,并对各重要分布区带的资源潜力进行了探讨。     

中国锌矿资源开发利用形势分析

锌是一种仅次于铜和铝的重要有色金属原材料,中国是全球第二大锌资源国,第一大消费国、生产国和进口国,锌对国民经济发展有着十分重要的意义.本文分析中国锌矿资源供需格局,目的是为了掌握国内锌矿资源开发利用现状,为未来的开发利用规划提供参考.本文采用最新数据资料,在系统梳理全球锌矿资源储量、产量、生产商以及消费等供需格局的情况下,建立3大开发利用指标,通过数学模型客观分析了中国锌矿资源形势.长期而言,全球锌矿资源将仍处于供不应求的紧缺状态,中国锌矿资源形势存在生产集中度小、锌储采比低以及锌产品进口集中度高等3大特点,从而说明中国锌资源未来形势并不乐观,需加大资源保障力度.     

Scenario Prediction of China’s Oil Resource Demand in 2020-2030

Oil plays an important role in ensuring national energy security. It is of great significance for China’s energy policy-making to predict the future oil demand scientifically. Combined with the grey correlation analysis and combination model of ARIMA-BP neural network, data on six driving variables of China’s GDP, international oil price, energy consumption per unit GDP, industrial structure, urbanization rate and oil production in 1999-2018 were selected to predict China’s oil demand under different scenarios in 2020-2030. The results show that the selected driving variables are highly correlated with China’s oil demand, and the combined model is more accurate than the single model. From 2020 to 2030, China’s oil demand and import will continue to increase, but the growth rate will gradually slow down. Under the three scenarios, the predicted average oil demand in 2020, 2025 and 2030 will be 675.7703 million tons, 732.2725 million tons and 760.8155 million tons, respectively; the predicted average external dependence in 2020-2030 will be 76.19%, far exceeding the international warning line of 50%. The contradiction between China’s oil supply and demand will be more acute, and accordingly, some policy suggestions were put forward.     

云南铁矿资源现状及扩大铁矿资源的途径

为保证云南钢铁工业可持续发展,解决矿石资源的不足,从分析截止2002年底保有资源量数据入手,研究尚未上表的铁矿资源现状,发现全省上表98处产地保有的35.52亿t储量中,仅有7.91亿t为当前可应用储量。应从补勘升级上表D级储量(3亿t)、择优勘查未上表的矿区(2亿t)、试验-研究3类矿石的选矿回收(菱铁矿石1亿t,鲕状高磷赤铁矿石1亿t,高磷非鲕状赤铁矿石0.5亿t),合计可新增可应用矿石7.5亿t,加上已有的7.91亿t,可应用矿石最终达15.41亿t。再加上第二轮国土资源大调查铁矿的新发现,立足省内,扩大进口,必将缓解云南铁矿资源紧缺的现状。     

石墨、萤石等战略非金属矿产发展趋势研究

战略性新兴产业几乎或多或少都与非金属矿及其制品有关,随着战略性新兴产业的发展,我国战略性矿产资源消费将迎来快速增长期.本文选取石墨、萤石、高纯石英、叶蜡石四种非金属矿产为战略非金属矿产,收集其产量、消费量、贸易情况等资料,对其重要性及用途、供需情况等进行研究,并对其未来需求趋势进行预测.本文认为石墨、高纯石英、萤石、叶蜡石在战略性新兴产业中有重要应用,未来需求将呈快速增长趋势,其中石墨、萤石2030年需求量分别为138.7万t、567.9万t.为国家制定勘查投入及产业发展政策提供参考.