《翁同龢日记》中的冷暖感知记录及其对气候冷暖变化的指示意义

依据清代《翁同龢日记》（以下简称《日记》）中逐日的冷暖感知记录和同时期的器测月均温资料，采用相关分析和线性回归分析等统计方法，以月为基本统计单元，对《日记》中冷暖感知记录反演气候变化的能力进行了分析。结果说明，《日记》中的冷暖感知记录可以用于气候变化研究，但是最佳代用指标因气候变化的时间尺度和季节而异。总体而言，极热、偏热、偏凉、极冷日数对年内月到季时间尺度气候变化的代表性较好，其中尤以偏凉和极冷日数最佳。 对于年际尺度上的气候波动，从季节对比来看，冷暖感知日数反演夏季（6-8月份）月均温的能力最差；从冷暖感知类型对比来看，极冷日数是多个月份月均温的最佳代用指标，1、3、5、9和12月份的最佳代用指标均是极冷日数。并且，还可以依据极冷日数的多寡识别极端冷、极端热年。由此可见，古代私人日记中的冷暖感知记录可以用于反演历史时期气候的冷暖变化。     

近300a来古里雅冰芯记录的气候突变事件

根据古里雅冰芯高分辨率气候环境信息记录,利用小波气候突变的检测方法,对近300a来的气候突变事件进行了检测.结果表明,在百年尺度上,近300a来古里雅冰芯中所记录的δ¹⁸O(温度代用指标)发生了2次突变,分别在1788年和1932年;净积累量(降水量的代用指标)也发生了2次突变,分别在1805年和1939年;降水突变发生的时间迟于温度突变发生的时间.时间尺度越短,发生突变的次数则越多,这也体现了气候变化的层次性.因此,较好地确定隐含在气候资料中冷暖(干湿)期突变的位置,从冷暖(干湿)期的变更上去把握气候变化,将有助于认识气候变化的机理.     

气候变暖背景下内蒙古大兴安岭生态功能区冷暖急转气候特征

1961-2015年内蒙古大兴安岭生态功能区气候变暖趋势明显,其气温突变年份为1987年。在气候变暖的背景下,生态功能区的严寒和寒冷日数在突变前呈减少趋势、在突变后呈增加趋势,表明突变后冬季冷天日数并没有明显减少趋势;炎热和温暖日数在突变后呈极显著增加趋势,而暖天日数突变前后变化较为平缓。综合来看,在气候变暖的背景下气温突变后高温日数增加要显著多于低温日数增加。过渡期日数变化趋势特征表明,严寒炎热过渡期、寒冷温暖过渡期和冷暖过渡期在突变后明显变短,生态功能区冷暖急转现象尤为明显。在历年尺度上,冷暖过渡期日数变化随着温度范围的扩大而减少幅度在加大。     

冰芯和气象记录揭示的青藏高原百年来典型冷暖时段气候变化特征

气候冷暖变化问题是全球科学家研究的一个聚焦点,但高海拔地区的气候变化过程尚不十分清楚,作为全球气候变化的敏感区的青藏高原更是如此. 以青藏高原北部的古里雅冰芯、唐古拉冰芯和南部的达索普冰芯、宁金岗桑冰芯δ¹⁸O记录作为温度代用指标,同时结合青藏高原西北缘的吉尔吉斯斯坦Naryn站长期气象记录和北半球同时期的气温变化进行比较,研究了过去100 a来青藏高原北部和南部的温度变化. 结果显示：青藏高原过去100 a来共出现1910年左右、1920年左右、1950年左右、1970年代4个冷期,各冷期之间对应出现4次暖期,并且变冷的程度越来越弱而变暖的程度越来越强. 其次,青藏高原气候的变冷变暖在不同地区和不同时段差异很大：从空间尺度上看,青藏高原北部变暖过程比南部更强烈;从时间尺度上看,1910年左右和1920年左右的两次变冷十分明显,但1950年左右和1970年代的两次变冷不明显. 另外,虽然有发生在1990年代早期的短暂降温过程,但与其说是一个冷事件,还不如说是一次变暖过程中的短暂停顿,随后表现为持续升温.     

柴达木盆地自然伽玛曲线与古里雅冰芯记录的末次间冰期以来气候环境变化过程的对比

采用柴达木盆地达参1井自然伽玛(GR)曲线进行古气候反演,分析了GR曲线记录的末次间冰期以来的环境变迁过程. 表明GR曲线忠实地记录了构造运动及气候变化的影响,与古里雅冰芯、格陵兰冰芯所记录的气候事件均能较好对应. 表明柴达木盆地同时包含了高原隆升和全球性气候变化的信息,是反映古气候变化良好的信息载体之一, 是反映内陆干旱盆地环境与气候变化良好的代用指标.     

柴达木盆地自然伽玛曲线与古里雅冰芯记录的末次间冰期以来气候环 …

采用柴达木盆地达参１井井自然伽玛（ＧＲ）曲线进行古气候反演,分析了ＧＲ曲线记录的末次间冰期以来的环境变迁过程,表明ＧＲ曲线忠实地记录了构造运动及气候变化的影响,与古里雅产,格陵兰冰芯所记录的气候事件均能均较好对应,表明柴达木盆地同时包含了高原隆升和全球性气候变化的信息,是反映古气候变化良好的信息载体之一,是反映内陆干旱盆地环境与气候变化良好的代用指标。     

清代江苏省冬季冷暖等级序列的重建及特征分析

通过对历史文献资料的收集整理,重建了清代江苏省冬季逐年冷暖等级序列,并利用Morlet复小波变换分析方法对序列进行了多时间尺度特征的综合分析。结果表明:(1)整个清代江苏省冬季气候变化大致可分为2个冷时段(1644—1730年、1821—1900年)和1个暖时段(1731—1820年);(2)重建的冷暖等级序列存在多尺度下的周期变化特征,其中有较明显的周期变化尺度是38～42 a、18～20 a、13～15 a和8 a,38～42 a和8 a特征时间尺度的周期变化相对具有全域性,18～20 a尺度的周期变化在1690—1790年之间比较明显,13～15 a尺度的周期变化在1720年之前和1830年之后比较明显;(3)重建序列的第1主周期为42 a,第2、3、4主周期依次是20 a、 8 a和3 a;在42 a尺度下,清代江苏省冬季气候可划分为6个偏冷时段和6个偏暖时段。     

1961-2012年辽宁省极端气温事件气候变化特征

利用辽宁省52个气象台站逐日平均气温、 最高气温和最低气温数据, 使用国际通用的10种极端气候指数, 研究了1961-2012年辽宁省极端气温事件的气候变化特征. 结果表明: 年平均极端气温事件空间分布存在明显的地区差异. 时间尺度上, 1961-2012年辽宁省年及四季极端暖事件(暖昼日数、 暖夜日数、 夏季日数、 热带夜数和热浪持续指数)呈增加趋势, 极端冷事件(冷昼日数、 冷夜日数、 结冰日数、 霜冻日数和寒潮持续指数)呈减少趋势; 极端暖事件在20世纪90年代中期开始明显增加, 极端冷事件在20世纪80年代末期开始显著减少; 极端暖事件的变化速率要小于极端冷事件. 辽宁省气温日较差有增大的趋势, 极端暖(冷)事件的增加(减少)在秋季(冬季)最为显著. 空间变化上, 极端气温事件在全省基本都呈一致的增加或减少的分布. 多数极端气温事件均存在8 a左右的周期, 检测到的突变的时间大致在20世纪80年代中期到90年代末期. 20世纪80年代末期辽宁省气候变暖后, 极端暖事件和冷事件均有明显的增加和减少.     

1800—1813年上海地区梅雨特征和汛期降水量的复原

私人日记是重建高分辨率历史天气气候序列的珍贵史料来源。以《查山学人日记》中的雨日记录为指标复原了日记史料相对缺乏的19世纪早期(1800—1813年)上海地区的梅雨特征,并将雨日区分为5个降水等级,同时将1951—1998年上海龙华站器测日降水量划分为与日记降水记录相匹配的5个降水等级,然后根据龙华站梅雨期、汛期各级雨日数与降水量之间的回归关系复原了1800—1813年的梅雨量和汛期降水量。结果显示:(1)1800—1813年的梅雨相对典型,平均入梅日期为6月10日,出梅日期7月7日,梅期雨日数20.1天,梅期长度27.1天,梅雨量257.3 mm,汛期降水量669.5 mm,与利用《雨雪分寸》重建的梅雨期大体一致,梅雨量有较大差异。(2)整体上看,该时段平均入、出梅日期比龙华站各年代有所提前,梅期雨日数和长度略有增加,梅雨量偏丰,梅雨强度偏强,汛期降水量在适中水平。梅雨特征量、汛期降水量与龙华站各年代不存在显著差异,与20世纪80、90年代最相近。(3)复原的“梅期雨日数、梅期长度”、汛期降水量与区域旱涝状况均有较好的对应关系,与东亚夏季风强弱变化指示的降水空间变化特征也比较相符,反映出文中所用的日记资料以及复原方法和结果具有较高的可靠性。     

中国泥炭记录末次冰消期以来古气候研究进展

泥炭记录的环境演变是过去全球变化（PAGES）研究的重要领域之一,分析了中国泥炭记录的古气候演化研究的区域范围,当前主要以东北哈尼、青藏高原的红原、神农架大九湖以及华南定南大湖四个位于东部季风区的研究工作最为集中。泥炭沉积高分辨率综合信息揭示了末次冰消期以来中国气候变化的时空特征：冷暖干湿变化既有一致性又表现出区域差异,末次冰消期东北地区、东部山地、华南地区都表现出冷偏湿的气候特点,而青藏高原却为冷偏干或凉偏干;Younger Dryas（YD）事件之后,全新世早期和中期青藏高原、东部山地、华南地区气候总体以温湿为主要特征,而东北地区有效降水减少,到全新世晚期,呈现出干旱的变化趋势。并对B~A事件,YD事件,8.2 ka 以及4.2 ka等重大气候突变事件研究工作进行了综述。最后指出今后应拓展与重建更多区域古气候环境变化序列的对比,加强泥炭沉积及环境指标的基础理论,重视和提高大气沉降泥炭档案以及气候变化背景下泥炭地碳循环机制等研究工作。     

Analysis of extreme low-temperature events during the warm season in Northeast China

The trends of global warming are increasingly significant, especially in the middle and high latitude regions of the northern hemisphere, where the impact of climate change on extreme events is becoming more noticeable. Northeast China is located in a high latitude region and is sensitive to climate change. Extreme minimum temperatures causing cold damage during the warm season is a major type of agro-meteorological disaster in Northeast China, which causes serious reductions in crop yield. In this paper, we analyzed the temporal and spatial trends in the frequency of extreme minimum temperatures during the warm season (from May to September) during 1956–2005 in Northeast China. Abrupt climatic changes were identified using the Mann–Kendall test. The results show that the frequency of extreme minimum temperature days during the warm season in Northeast China decreases significantly from 1956 to 2005 with a background of climate warming. The highest number of extreme minimum temperature days occurred in the 1970s and 1980s, and there was an abrupt climatic change in 1993. The spatial analysis identified that the north and southeast of the region experienced a larger decrease in the number of extreme low temperature days than the west and south of the region. Rice, sorghum, corn, and soybeans are most vulnerable to cold damage. In severe low temperature years, the average crop yield was reduced by 15.2% in Northeast China.     

Characteristics analysis of extremely cold weather in the Greater Khingan Mountains region北大核心CSCD

Extremely cold weather has an important influence on winter production and life in the Greater Khingan Mountains region. This paper uses the daily minimum temperature data of ground observation stations during extreme cold weather from 1974 to 2021 in the Greater Khingan Mountains region, monthly circulation index data, the spatial distribution and temporal variation characteristics of extreme cold days and extreme minimum temperature were analyzed by climate statistical method; The abrupt changes and periods of extreme cold days and extreme minimum temperature were tested by Mann-Kendall method and Morlet wavelet analysis; calculating the recurrence period of extreme minimum temperature by empirical frequency method; correlation method was used to analyze the circulation factors which had significant influence on the number of extremely cold days. The results are followed: (1) The spatial distribution of extreme cold days in the Greater Khingan Mountains region was not uniform, and gradually decreasing from northwest to south. The extreme cold days was at most 717 d in Huzhong, and at least 29 d in Gagadaki, the extreme cold days in the whole region mutated in 1979, and the average annual extreme cold days decreased 14.2 d after the mutation compared with that before the mutation, and the annual extremely cold days have a significant cycle of 2 to 4 years. (2) The extreme minimum temperature in the whole region mutated in 1990, before the mutation the extreme minimum temperature was low and after the mutation began to rise, the significant cycle of annual extreme minimum temperature was 4 to 5 years, the extreme lowest temperature was -49.6 ℃ in Mohe, followed by -49.2 ℃ in Huzhong; the extreme lowest temperature occurs once every 2 years, once every 5 years and once every 10 years in Huzhong, while the extreme lowest temperature occurs once in 20 years, once in 50 years and once in 100 years in Mohe. (3) SCAND teleconnection patterm has a good correlation with extreme cold days in winter(January, February and December)in the Greater Khingan Mountains region. Positive growth of the circulation mode, it has great influence on the extreme cold weather in winter in the Greater Khingan Mountains region. © 2022 Science Press (China).     

青藏高原近50年来的气候变化研究(英)

In this paper, records of mainly meteorological stations of recent 50 years in Tibetan plateau are compared, and three cold periods and three warm periods as well as the rule of dry and humid variation in the Tibetan plateau during the last 50 years are summarized. It is discovered that the vicissitude time of every warm and cold period at the edge of the plateau is four years earlier than that of the inland, and the year-to-year variation phase of mean monthly temperature of January and July is relatively earlier than that of mean annual temperature. And there are different characteristics of correspondence between mean annual temperature and mean monthly temperature of January and July on the south and the north of the Tanggula Range.     

An Overview on Changes of Dry/Wet Pattern in China in Decadal to Centennial Warm and Cold Periods During the Past Millennium

Revealing the multi-scale variation characteristics of the drought/flood patterns for the past millennium has been a hot spot in climate change research in recent years. It has significance for understanding and predicting the temporal and spatial differences of precipitation changes in the context of future climate warming. Based on publications on the peer-reviewed journals, here, we summarized and compared the combinations between cold/warm periods and dry/wet spatial patterns at multi-scales in China over the past millennium. The main conclusions are: although there are differences in China's dry/wet patterns in different cold and warm periods for the past millennium, the ensemble mean shows that the dry/wet patterns in eastern China in decadal or centennial warm periods are approximately "dry (South China)-wet (middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River)-dry (Huanghuai Area)" from south to north, while in the relatively cold periods it mainly shows a "wet in east and dry in west" pattern. The climate changes from cold to warm usually lead to a drying trend in the Huanghuai Area, and a wetting trend in the Jiangnan area (especially the Yangtze River basin in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces). This shows that the "flood in south and drought in north" pattern in eastern China since the 1970s under the background of global warming may be a re-occurrence of the matching characteristics of cold/warm climate and dry/wet patterns in China for the past millennium. However, from the perspective of the longer-scale cold and warm stages, the dry/wet pattern in China tend to be "dry in the arid and semi-arid areas in western China; wet in southwestern, northern, and northeastern China; and dry in southeastern China" in the Medieval Climate Anomaly, and an opposite pattern shows in the Little Ice Age. It suggests that there are still uncertainties in the current climate reconstructions, and it also shows that the mechanism of dry/wet pattern responding to multi-scale temperature fluctuations might be extremely complicated.     

Study on the Relationship between Large Volcanic Eruptions and Temperature Variation Based on Tree-Ring Data in the Eastern Tibetan Plateau during the Past Millennium

Volcanic eruptions can significantly cool the global troposphere on the time scales from several months up to a decade due to reflection of solar radiation by sulfate aerosols and feedback mechanisms in the climate system. The impact of volcanic eruptions on global climate are discussed in many studies. However, few studies have been done on the impact of volcanic eruption on climate change in China in the past millennium. The 1300-year and 600-year temperature series were reconstructed based on the six tree-ring temperature proxy data in northeastern and southeastern Tibetan Plateau, respectively. Three warm periods occurred in 670-920,1000-1310 and 1590-1930, and three cold periods happened at 920-1000,1310-1590 and 1930-2000 in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. There were two obviously warm periods (1385-1450 and 1570-1820) and two cold periods (1450-1570 and 1820-2000) in southeastern Tibetan Plateau. Contrasting with volcanic eruption chronology, we analyzed the relationship between volcanic activity and temperature variation in the eastern Tibetan plateau during the past millennium using Superposed Epoch Analysis (SEA) method. The results indicated that the temperature decreased one year after large volcanic eruptions located beteen 10°S and 10°N in latitude in northeastern Tibetan Plateau and two years in southeastern Tibetan Plateau. The volcanic eruptions occurred at different latitudes have different impacts on the temperature variations, which may be caused by regional difference, the nature of the eruption, the magnitude of the resulting change in incoming solar radiation, prevailing background climate and internal variability, season, latitude, and other considerations.     

How cold was it for Neanderthals moving to Central Europe during warm phases of the last glaciation?

Precise estimates of mean annual temperature (MAT) for when Neanderthals occupied Central Europe are critical for understanding the role that climatic and associated environmental factors played in Neanderthal migrations and in their ultimate extinction. Neanderthals were continuously present in the relatively warm regions of southern and Western Europe in the Pleistocene but only temporarily settled Central Europe (CE), presumably because of its colder and less hospitable climate. Here, we present a new approach for more spatially and temporally accurate estimation of palaeotemperatures based on the stable oxygen isotope composition of phosphates extracted from animal teeth found at sites linked directly to concurrent Neanderthal occupation. We provide evidence that Neanderthals migrated along the Odra Valley of CE during warmer periods throughout the Upper Pleistocene. The MATs during these migrations were about 6.8 °C for the warm phase of Oxygen Isotope Stage OIS 5a–d (prior to the OIS4 cold event) at ～115–74,000 yr BP and about 6.3 °C during the early OIS 3 warm phase ～59–41,000 yr BP. Our results show that temperatures during these phases peaked 2–4 °C above longer term estimates from ice cores and pollen records. We argue that our approach can provide valuable insights into evaluating the role of climate in human migration patterns in the Pleistocene.     

云南北海湿地沉积物记录的过去2050年气候演化及对区域人类文明的影响

过去2 000年气候变化是深入了解过去全球气候演化机制、探索人类活动与环境演化相互关系的重要依据。我国西南地区是气候变化与人类文明研究的重要区域,获取更多记录资料对深入理解两者之间的相互关系尤为重要。本文以云南省腾冲县北海湿地沉积物为研究对象,利用AMS 14C测年建立年代学序列,利用烧失量、粒度分析结果建立了该地区过去2 050年气候演变序列。结果表明:2 050 cal. a B.P.~1 400 cal. a B.P.期间尤其是最后阶段气候寒冷干旱;1 400 cal. a B.P.~750 cal. a B.P.期间相对温暖湿润;750 cal. a B.P.~300 cal. a B.P.期间寒冷干旱;300 cal. a B.P.以来温暖偏湿。通过与云南地区人类活动记录对比发现,该地区人口的增长、社会政权的更替在一定程度上受自然气候环境演化的影响,南诏和大理民族政权的建立主要集中在相对温暖湿润的中世纪暖期;此外,云南地区近2 000年来人口数量的变化与气候变化同样呈现出较好的一致性。