实验矿物物理的发展现状与趋势:2.弹性和波速

弹性性质和波速是矿物重要物理性质. 实验测量的弹性性质和波速与地震学观测结果的对比,是确定地球内部物质组成、理解地球内部圈层结构形成机制和揭示地球内部物质分布不均一性最为直接和重要的手段. 在过去20年,伴随大腔体压机、金刚石压砧、同步辐射X光、激光加热等技术的快速发展,在地球内部相应温度和压力下测量主要构成矿物的弹性性质和波速取得了巨大进展. 综述了矿物物理在地球内部矿物弹性性质和波速实验测量的发展历史、近20年的研究现状与趋势,并展望了该学科未来发展的方向、关键科学问题与面临的主要挑战.      

“将古论今”——环境科学研究中的历史地质学方法

传统地质学的“将今论古”方法使地质学取得了巨大的成就,而且还将是今后地质学发展的指导思想,但面对资源、环境、减灾等人类在二十一世纪的主要问题,地球科学所面对的问题时,地质学家首先应该改变或者更新自己的思维方式。如果以地球演化的同一性原理来认识地球,则“将古论今”的方法对解决地球科学面临的挑战人有重要的意义。以历史地质学的方法和视角,研究地质过程的发生、发展和演化过程,以及这种过程在今天和明天的演化趋势,及其对人类生存环境的影响,将是今后一十时期地质科学的主要任务。     

Tsunami research in Korea

The tsunamis that have occurred in many places around the world over the past decades have taken a heavy toll on human lives and property. The eastern coast of the Korean Peninsula is not safe from tsunamis and has sustained tsunami damage in the past. The aim of this study is to review the past, present, and future of some aspects of tsunami research in Korea. A composite numerical model comprising propagation and inundation models is described. The paper also covers tsunami mitigation efforts in Korea, and a tsunami hazard map is developed and introduced.     

高温高压装置研制和技术创新的发展现状与趋势

现代化的高温高压实验装置与表征技术是研究地球深部物质的赋存状态、属性及效应的关键手段. 近20年,国内很多科研单位先后建立了高水平高温高压实验平台,具有覆盖地表至地心温压环境的各类装置以及多种可进行原位/非原位观测的技术,在高压矿物物理、实验岩石学和地球化学等领域取得重要进展. 装置和技术的创新发展是当前我国“三深一系统（深地深海深空、地球系统科学）”科技战略领域中基础理论创新的驱动力之一.简要综述了高温高压装置研制、技术发展和面临的主要挑战,在此基础上展望了未来的发展方向.      

Monsoons across Multi-scales: Summary of Fourth Conference on Earth System Science

The evolution and future projection of the regional and global monsoons, one of the major components of Earth climate system in the low-latitudes and middle-latitudes, has long been the research focus in the paleoclimate and modern climate communities. Session 4 of the 4^th Conference on Earth System Sciences (CESS) in Shanghai focused on the evolution, variability, and driving mechanism of regional and global monsoon system across multiple timescale, and the role of the monsoon system in changes in the Earth system. During the session, the issues of features of past and contemporary monsoons based on observation data and geological reconstruction, model simulation of past and contemporary monsoons, and response of monsoon climate to the past and present global warming were intensively discussed. The future research directions were also addressed.     

Reduction of future disaster damages by learning from disaster experiences

This paper examines the effect of a country’s own past disaster experiences and nearby countries’ past experiences on subsequent disaster damage. We use global disaster data from 1990 to 2010, which include disaster-related death tolls for both natural and technological disasters that are further divided into sub-categories. Overall, we find evidence of a reduction effect of past disaster damage on future disaster damage. More detailed analyses show that an adaptation effect seems to be present for certain combinations of disaster types and levels of economic development. The results show that a country’s own experiences reduce future damage for natural disasters but that the marginal effect is larger for lower-income countries. On the other hand, for technological disasters, a robust impact of experiences was found only in higher-income countries. In terms of the disaster experiences of nearby countries, the adaptation effect was found only for natural disasters, and the marginal impact was relatively higher for higher-income countries.     

Surface displacement estimation along Himalayan frontal fault using differential SAR interferometry

The Himalayan region has been studied extensively during the past few decades in terms of present ongoing deformations. Various models have been proposed for the evolution of the Himalaya to explain the cause of earthquake occurrences and to understand the seismotectonics of the Himalayan collision zone. However, the information on displacements from field geodetic surveys is still too scarce in time and spatial domains so as to provide convincing evidences. Moreover, classical Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Approaches also fail due to paucity of data in higher magnitude range, thus emphasizing the need of spatial level displacement measurements. It is in this context that the present study has been carried out to estimate the surface displacement in a seismically active region of the Himalaya between Ganga and Yamuna Tear using Differential SAR interferometry. Three single-look complex images, obtained from ASAR sensor onboard ENVISAT satellite, have been used. A displacement rate of 8?C10?mm per year in N15°E direction of Indian plate has been obtained in this three-pass SAR interferometry study. It has been noted that the estimated convergence rate using Differential SAR interferometry technique is relatively low in comparison with those obtained from previous classical studies. The reported low convergence rate may be due to occurrence of silent/quite earthquakes, aseismic slip, differential movement of Delhi Hardwar ridge, etc. Therefore, in view of the contemporary seismicity and conspicuous displacements, a study of long-term observations of this surface movement has been recommended in future through a time-series SAR interferometry analysis.     

Change in future tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific under global warming scenario

Differences in atmospheric and oceanic environments which affect the tropical cyclone (TC) activity between the late twenty-first century (2071?C2100, A1B) and the late twentieth century (1971?C2000, 20C3M) are analyzed using multi-model ensemble from 15 general circulation models. Six factors (vertical wind shear, 700?hPa relative humidity, 850?hPa relative vorticity, outgoing longwave radiation, precipitation, and sea surface temperature) related to TC genesis predicts that more TCs in the future will occur than in the present. The result of maximum potential intensity analysis shows the frequency of occurrence and influence of stronger TCs will increase over the western North Pacific in the future. Anomalous northerly in the mid-latitudes of East Asia due to the strengthening of west-high and east-low pressure system pattern in the future plays an important role in blocking TC from moving toward mid-latitudes of East Asia. The multiple linear regression model (MLRM) developed using six predictors (independent variables) analyzed from NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data predicts that total TC genesis frequency during July to October (JASO), which predicted using data of 20C3M, will have more (2?C3) TCs than in the present.     

Field evidence of Quaternary seismites in the Mostaganem-Relizane (western Algeria) region: seismotectonic implication

Northwestern Algeria, Tell Atlas chain, belongs to the converging Africa-Eurasia plate boundary. Several active faults have been previously identified and several earthquakes occurred in the past. In the present study, seismites are observed in the Quaternary deposits. The identified seismites include injection sand dykes, pillar structures, pillow structures, load-cast structures, water escape structures, sismoslumps, thixotropic wedges, and thixotropic bowls. The following arguments support their seismic origin: (i) presence of active faults able of producing strong earthquakes, (ii) the granulometric characteristics of the deposits are favorable to liquefaction, (iii) the observed features, mainly those related to water escape structures, are comparable to those observed in modern earthquakes. Therefore, such features are evidence of the occurrence of earthquakes of M?>?5.5 magnitude in this study area, which may occur in the future.     

现代地貌学的发展与思考

简要回顾了地貌学的发展史 ,认为现代地貌学的发展必须与时代发展趋势相结合 ,需要深入研究地貌演变与全球气候环境变化、区域经济可持续发展以及地球陆地系统的关系。综合分析了地貌学的研究方法 ,认为地貌学的研究方法主要有沉积学方法及动力过程方法。传统地貌学的研究多偏重于沉积学的方法。过去是认识现在的一把钥匙 ,沉积学方法是研究地貌发展历史与过程的有力工具 ,但要深入认识地貌演变的过去与现代动力过程与机制 ,进而预测地貌过程的演变趋势 ,必须采用动力过程分析的方法。动力地貌研究的发展应该汲取过程反映学派及数学地貌学派的经验教训 ,避免过于重视工具 ,本末倒置 ,甚至演变为数学游戏或模型游戏。动力地貌学的研究将彻底改变过去人们眼中对传统地貌学的印象———仅仅是现象描述和宏观分析。动力地貌学通过引进动力学模型、数学模型及地理信息系统等研究方法和技术 ,采用宏观与微观相结合 ,全面深入探讨各种地貌产生、发展的机制和规律。它具有动态性和较强的预测功能 ,从而可以更好地为经济建设和社会实践服务。文中还探讨了地貌学的各个发展方向 ,认为环境地貌、灾害地貌、城市地貌、旅游地貌、河口海岸地貌等应用地貌学分支近年来发展迅猛 ,主要是因为这些分支与经济发展的需求结?     

Using Environmental Isotope Method to Study the Air Temperature Variations of the Earth

Using environmental isotopes to study the variations in air temperature is a relatively new method in Vietnam. This is a new and reliable method. Using environmental isotopes to study the temperature variations in the past and predict the future changes is a matter of being interested and applied. This paper used the results of isotope analysis (T, D, 18O, 13C and 14C) to study the change in temperature of the air environment in the past and then projected to 2050. From contents of isotopes, based on the correlation with temperature, water age we could calculate air temperature conditions in the past and predict future changes. Results from the study showed that about 500 years ago to present, air temperature in Red River area continuously rises and amplitude ranges from 0.05 to 0.06 °C /year. By 2030 the average temperature of the air environment will be 23.75 °C, by 2040 would be 24.10 °C and by 2050 is 25.20 °C     

Human‐affected disturbances in vegetation cover and peatland development in the late Holocene recorded in shallow mountain peatlands (Central Sudetes,SW Poland)

The aim of this study is to assess the impact of biotic and abiotic factors on peatland formation in the Central Sudetes (central Europe) during the late Holocene. The research methodology adopted allowed us to determine whether vegetation development and shallow peatland formation were affected by human activity. Knowledge of past changes might be useful in evaluating recent and future changes, and to avoid pitfalls in the present management of peatland ecosystems. A palaeoecological research study of four peatlands was conducted in the Sto?owe Mountains (Central Sudetes, SW Poland). The results showed that these shallow peatlands originated in the middle to late Holocene (from 3301 BC to AD 1137). Palaeoecological records reflect continuous human impact on vegetation development and peat accumulation from the Middle Ages to the present (late Holocene). The strongest agrarian settler activity is observed in the High Middle Ages (AD 1200–1500). The human‐induced or wildfires observed in the late Holocene were an integral component of peatland ecosystems in the Central Sudetes. Moreover, palaeoecological analysis (sphagnum spores decline) and radiocarbon dating (AD 1870) confirmed drainage of the study area in the 19th century, which greatly affected the vegetation communities.     

Les consommations d'énergie dans le monde : une méthode robuste de prévision de leur évolution à moyen terme ; premières conséquences

This document proposes some ideas on the global energy context in an anthropogenic view: what are the needs in energy for the world population? How could they be satisfied in the middle term? What links exist with the near future of a necessarily limited system, the ‘Earth Surface, oceans and atmosphere’ system? Over past 30 years, the world individual energy consumption has been a constant. This is the basis of a robust method for predicting, in the short and middle term, the relative part of the main energy vectors and their interactions with the carbon cycle. Finally, some essential aspects of any energy planning are pointed out. To cite this article: M. Combarnous, A. Prieur, C. R. Geoscience 335 (2003).     

卫星磁测的过去·现在·未来

论述了卫星磁测的历史、现状和对未来的展望;介绍并对比了3颗磁卫星(Magsat,Oersted,CHAMP)和由它们测得的与中国大陆和海域大地构造单元有关的6个卫星磁异常.     

Reconstructing past fire regimes: methods,applications, and relevance to fire management and conservation

Biomass burning and resulting fire regimes are major drivers of vegetation changes and of ecosystem dynamics. Understanding past fire dynamics and their relationship to these factors is thus a key factor in preserving and managing present biodiversity and ecosystem functions. Unfortunately, our understanding of the disturbance dynamics of past fires is incomplete, and many open questions exist relevant to these concepts and the related methods. In this paper we describe the present status of the fire-regime concept, discuss the notion of the fire continuum and related proxies, and review the most important existing approaches for reconstructing fire history at centennial to millennial scales. We conclude with a short discussion of selected directions for future research that may lead to a better understanding of past fire-regime dynamics. In particular, we suggest that emphasis should be laid on (1) discriminating natural from anthropogenic fire-regime types, (2) improving combined analysis of fire and vegetation reconstructions to study long-term fire ecology, and (3) overcoming problems in defining temporal and spatial scales of reference, which would allow better use of past records to gain important insights for landscape, fire and forest management.     

浅谈固体地球科学与地球系统科学

地球科学在20世纪的诸多进展中,对后来科学发展具有深远影响的基本认识之一是地球演化的行为具有整体性,其不同的圈层确实通过多种途径相互作用,且人类活动已成为地球演化的重要营力之一。这些认识导致地球系统科学思想的产生和发展,并使不同圈层相互作用的过程和机理、人与环境的相互作用研究成为21世纪基础科学研究的前沿。地球系统科学强调地球不同圈层、不同单元相互作用的整体性和关联性,因而科学研究必须从"整体地球系统"的视野出发,但研究过程又必须从关键区域入手。我国是地球系统科学研究的关键地区之一,未来研究应立足地域优势和特色,攻克全球性重大科学问题,解决社会对地球科学的知识需求。     

冷水江市布溪开发区工程地质特征及地面稳定性评价探讨

冷水江市布溪开发区地下埋藏有可采煤层,浅部开采结果造成了地表移动,并产生了明显的下沉盆地,地表移动与变形极为强烈,地表产生了大量的非连续性变形,地面建筑物有的受到了严重破坏。因此,开发区今后在采煤条件下是否可以进行建筑,是否可作为新区开发?通过地表移动与变形分析预测,确认该区今后开采时地表仍将产生一定程度的变形与破坏,但其程度远较以往开采浅部时轻弱,同时在对策上论证了采取可靠的加固措施及有效的开采技术措施,可大大地减轻地表变形与破坏,该区是可以作为新区开发的。     

Analyzing empowerment: An ongoing process of building state-civil society relations - The case of Walnut Way in Milwaukee

Arguments regarding citizen involvement and empowerment within neoliberal urban politics are ample in geographic literature. Existing discussions often define and evaluate empowerment as either some social, political, or economic end-product of a specific event. Such singular conceptualization is problematic. First, different kinds of social, political, and economic changes can simultaneously empower/disempower communities in contradictory ways. In addition, the view of empowerment as an end-product of a present event obscures a more nuanced understanding of empowerment as an ongoing process of state-civil society relation-building. An in-depth assessment of such a process is only possible with reference to the past and the potential future occurrences. Elwood’s (2002) multi-dimensional conceptualization of empowerment recognizes the limitations of a singular definition of empowerment. However, it falls short of operationalizing empowerment as a temporal process with a historically and geographically contingent past, dynamic present, and future in the making. Therefore, in this paper I expand on Elwood’s framework to show how a process-based view as opposed to a narrow end-product-based or event-based one can provide a deeper understanding of state-civil society interaction and community empowerment. This paper analyzes the interaction between the City of Milwaukee, the residents of a predominantly black inner-city neighborhood, the Walnut Way, and their community organization, the Walnut Way Conservation Corp. within a land-use dispute related to the development of a park space into a housing project. Using data collected through semi-structured in-depth interviews, archival research, and participant observation, this paper emphasizes that despite methodological limitations of collecting long-term data, community empowerment can and should be studied as a process with reference to the past, present, and potential future state-civil society interactions.     

南极冰盖研究最新进展

南极冰盖是地球系统的重要组成部分,在全球气候系统中扮演着重要角色.通过对南极冰盖的研究将有助于了解其在全球气候系统中的作用,并为探讨全球气候过去、现在以及未来的演化提供支撑.总结分析了近年来南极冰盖研究的一些重要进展,并在此基础上对南极冰盖研究领域的一些主要结果、观测事实以及未来变化展开讨论,重点介绍南极物质平衡、冰芯研究、冰下水系统、冰盖数值模拟方面最近的进展,评述未来可能的研究方向和应该关注的问题.     

Palaeoecological records as a guide for fire management in Killarney National Park,Ireland

Climate change is allowing fire to expand into previously unburnt ecosystems and regions. While management policies such as fire suppression have significantly altered their frequency and intensity. To prevent future biodiversity/ecosystem services loss, and the large financial burden of wildfires, management plans will be required to adapt to future climate and land use changes. Long-term ecological data offer a unique perspective to assess fire variability under different climate and land-use conditions. In this study, we focus on Killarney National Park, Ireland. An area which today is under threat from an increase in fire activity. Comparing palaeoecological and archaeological records, we reconstruct the past fire dynamic and its impact on the landscape, and evaluate the role of climate vs humans in influencing the natural fire regime over the millennial time-scale. Our results indicate that fire has been present in the landscape since the beginning of the Holocene, with fire in the early Holocene being largely controlled by climate and microsite conditions, and in the late Holocene being increasingly influenced by human activity. The knowledge of past fire regimes can help inform future management in order to protect the semi-natural native woodland. The park's present landscape mosaic, could be preserved by limiting forest encroachment through moderate grazing and burning, while also protecting any fragmented forest from excessive grazing and large/intense fires, via traditional fire management strategies such as fuel load management. However, a fire management strategy should only be implemented following careful consideration of all ecosystem factors and controls.