石笋氧同位素指示东亚季风大尺度环流特征

利用湖北清江和尚洞的两支具有精确年代的年层石笋,建立了20世纪逐年的石笋氧同位素序列,讨论东亚季风石笋氧同位素的气候指示意义。与现代气象观测资料对比,发现近100年来和尚洞石笋 δ18O 与当地年总降水量和年均温度的相关性并不显著,但与指示东亚季风环流特征的西太平洋副热带高压指数(WPSH)以及相对应的太平洋年代际振荡指数(PDO)相关性好。在年际和年代际尺度上,当太平洋年代际振荡处于正(负)相位时,副热带高压加强(减弱),石笋的 δ18O 相对偏正(负)。因而,石笋 δ18O 反映了东亚季风大尺度环流特征。     

早全新世季风演化的高分辨率石笋δ18O记录研究--以河南老母洞石笋为例

基于豫西老母洞LM2石笋8个高精度230Th年龄,449个氧碳同位素,建立了达十年际分辨率的8.2~10.9 ka B.P.亚洲季风变化的δ18O记录序列.老母洞石笋δ18O值最为偏负达-12.0‰,最偏正为-8.2‰,振幅达3.8‰.早全新世10.13~10.9 ka B.P.时段内,河南西部老母洞石笋和东石崖石笋,陕西九仙洞C996-2石笋δ18O曲线揭示该时段内季风稳定,而中国南方的衙门洞石笋、三宝洞石笋和极地冰芯GRIP记录揭示该时段季风逐渐增强;同时季风达到顶峰的时期也不相同,进一步说明中国南北方早全新世10.13~10.9 ka B.P.时段季风演变过程的差异,可能与中国南北方气候的响应机制有关.从早全新世平均分辨率10年的LM2石笋记录中识别出8.2 ka,9.5 ka,10.2 ka和10.9 ka显著弱季风事件,尤其是8.2 ka和9.5 ka事件.对比分析老母洞与已发表的高分辨率石笋δ18O记录发现:石笋所揭示的某些冷事件发生时间在亚洲季风区存在差异,主要表现在事件内部变化特征及趋势上.LM2石笋δ18O曲线并没有明显记录9.3 ka弱季风事件,而是在9.3~9.6 ka B.P.左右记录了一个弱季风事件,与DSY09(2009)、Y1、HS-4记录相似,表明在该时段内存在季风的减弱事件,但是氧同位素传输的复杂性,使其在南北方表现不同.此外,在LM2石笋δ18O的8.2 ka B.P.开始时段,氧同位素曲线阶段性下降,且变幅达3‰,与Zhang等研究万象洞石笋提出的“中国8 200阶段”吻合,表明中国北方地区的8.2 ka事件是阶段性的事件,而南方的石笋氧同位素记录揭示的8.2 ka事件并未表现出阶段性特征,其原因有待于更多北方高精度石笋记录来进一步研究.LM2石笋氧同位素记录进行功率谱分析发现:在短尺度上季风变化与太阳活动密切相关,这与近年来对早全新世极端气候变化研究的驱动机制是一致的,早全新世亚洲季风的演化与太阳活动变化引起的太阳辐射能量的变化和北半球高纬气候的变化状况有关.     

石笋氧同位素和微量元素记录的陕南地区4200～2000a B.P.高分辨率季风降雨变化

基于陕南祥龙洞石笋XL2的19个230Th年龄、218个氧同位素分析以及896个Sr/Ca分析数据,高分辨率重建了4200～1972a B.P.期间陕南地区季风降雨变化.重建结果显示陕南地区这一时期季风降雨有显著的127～105a和57a周期,可能分别受控于太阳活动、PDO和/或AMO的变化.重建时段有3次百年尺度的干旱事件,分别发生于2200～2100a B.P.,2900～2700a B.P.和3600～3400a B.P.,其中2900～2700a B.P.干旱事件对应于北大西洋地区2.8ka冷事件.对比研究显示,尽管祥龙洞石笋和董哥洞石笋δ18O记录整体一致,但除了2900～ 2700aB.P.干旱事件之外,其他两次干旱事件在董哥洞石笋记录中并不明显.而尽管总体上祥龙洞和和尚洞石笋δ18O记录的差异要大,但XL2的3次干旱事件在和尚洞记录都有明显体现.有精确年代控制的祥龙洞、董哥洞及和尚洞石笋氧同位素记录的差异,揭示晚全新世我国季风降雨在十一百年尺度存在区域差异.     

MIS 3晚期东亚季风强度和DO事件年龄

基于神农架山宝洞石笋(SB46)的9个230Th年龄和326个氧同位素数据,建立了末次冰期32.2～26.7kaB.P.和17.0～15.4kaB.P.的东亚季风降水序列。该序列和同一洞穴全新世石笋记录的对比发现,在MIS3晚期东亚季风区可能存在极强夏季风降水事件,相当于全新世季风强度,可能与岁差旋回太阳辐射及海陆水汽潜热释放增强有关。与葫芦洞石笋δ18O记录和格陵兰冰芯δ18O记录对比表明,东亚夏季风千年尺度气候振荡与高北纬地区海-气快速重组存在遥相关效应。山宝洞石笋年龄与葫芦洞石笋和格陵兰冰芯时标(SS09sea)在定年误差范围内基本一致,但山宝洞石笋与冰芯记录在DO事件的年龄、波形和持续时间上更为一致,不仅进一步说明了低纬季风气候与极地气温同步变化,而且有效地弥补了葫芦洞记录在这一时段的不足。     

神农架全新世东亚季风演化及其热带辐合带控制*

文章基于湖北神农架山宝洞3支石笋的13个²³⁰Th年龄和505个氧同位素数据,建立了全新世8.45~0.46kaB.P.东亚季风降水序列,其长期演化趋势与33°N夏季太阳辐射能量变化曲线基本一致。神农架山宝洞与阿曼Qunf洞和贵州董哥洞的石笋高分辨率δ¹⁸ O记录整体相关(r 分别为0.75和0.94), 说明全新世东亚季风、印度季风系统的演化主要受控于同一驱动机制,即北半球夏季太阳辐射控制下赤道热带辐合带逐渐南移,导致亚洲季风降水持续减弱。功率谱分析表明:5ka以来山宝洞石笋记录具有显著的550a周期旋回,与树轮Δ¹⁴ C和北大西洋温盐环流周期基本一致。     

13ka以来东亚夏季风演变过程和全新世适宜期问题

基于湖北神农架三宝洞石笋SB43的21个230Th年龄和486个氧同位素数据,建立了13．0-0．2ka时段东亚夏季风强度演化序列,其长期演化趋势与33°N太阳辐射变化基本一致。通过对比三宝洞、董歌洞、阿曼Qunf洞及和尚洞石笋δ18O记录,发现东亚和印度季风强度在轨道尺度上呈同相位变化。石笋SB43、D4 δ18O值与Cariaco盆地Ti含量曲线整体变化一致,相关系数高达0．8,表明热带辐合带（ITCZ）的南北移动可能对亚洲中低纬季风强度起放大作用;全新世适宜期在亚洲季风区不存在显著穿时性,起止时间大体一致,约为10．2～5．7ka。早、中全新世季风强度与极地温度变化趋势一致,相关系数高达0．9,表明当时高纬冰量边界条件可能对亚洲季风强度变化（包括ITCZ的平均位置）具有贡献作用。     

小冰期东亚夏季风快速变化特征:湖北石笋记录

研究小冰期的结构特征及动力机理有助于理解全球增暖和极端气候事件的原因。基于湖北永兴洞总长为120 mm的YX275石笋7个高精度230Th年龄和120个氧同位素数据,重建了1361~1955 A.D.时段分辨率达5 a的东亚夏季风降水变化序列。该石笋δ^18O值在-7.8 ‰^-9.3 ‰范围内波动,长期趋势呈现出先缓慢增大后减小的变化特征,整体呈下凹形态。该记录与中国季风区北部和南部石笋记录变化大体一致,指示小冰期发生时东亚夏季风水循环发生减弱变化。在百年-数十年尺度上,YX275石笋记录的小冰期内5次显著季风降水减弱事件与南部贵州董哥洞、织金洞石笋记录变化一致,但不同于北方大鱼洞、九仙洞、黄爷洞和万象洞石笋记录的5次小幅度季风旋回特征,表明小冰期时中国南北部夏季风降水在短时间尺度上可能存在着区域差异。该记录与太阳总辐照度记录和北半球温度记录变化一致,表明太阳总辐照度和北半球温度变化对东亚夏季风水文变化有重要驱动作用。     

中国南方石笋氧同位素记录的重要意义

中国南部石笋氧同位素记录记载了重要的气候变化信息。应用石笋氧同位素记录时首先需要考虑检验石笋的平衡结晶生长,特别是重复性检验,以排除可能的偶然性或地方因素。中国南部重复性很好的南京葫芦洞和贵州董歌洞石笋氧同位素记录主要代表了当时的降水氧同位素信息。两洞的记录都显示,在冰期或冰段时期降水的氧同位素比间冰期或间冰段时期明显偏重。受夏季风强弱变化的控制,与目前亚洲季风降水氧同位素的季节变化相对应,在间冰期或间冰段时,ITCZ偏北,降水以夏季风的大规模大气环流下的对流降水为主,其氧同位素较轻;相反地,在冰期或冰段时,ITCZ偏南,降水以夏季风爆发前的锋面降水为主,其氧同位素较重。虽然尚有其他许多影响因素,亚洲季风的变化应是影响中国南部石笋氧同位素在冰期/间冰期或冰段/间冰段的尺度上变化的主导因素。但在更小的尺度上(例如小冰期),石笋氧同位素记录的解释则需要谨慎。虽然下最终结论为时尚早,但作为亚洲季风的两个组成部分的东亚季风和印度季风很可能是同步的,至少在冰期/间冰期或冰段/间冰段的尺度上是如此。基于上述研究,进一步提出亚洲夏季风强段/弱段的概念(AsianSummerMonsoonInterstadial/stadial,或ASMI/ASMS),其在上个冰期中与格陵兰冰芯间冰段/冰段一一对应     

东亚季风MIS 3早期DO事件的亚旋回及全球意义

根据湖北永兴洞石笋(YX51)10个U/Th年龄,470组氧、碳同位素数据建立了深海氧同位素3阶段(MIS3)早期57.7~35.6kaB.P.期间东亚夏季风演化时间序列。在发育时段,千年尺度δ18O峰谷变化与高纬冰芯记录的Dansgaard-Oeschger(DO)事件一致;δ13C呈现出与δ18O正相关同步演化特征,但受区域环境影响,在事件内部细节上存在差异。区域对比表明,同一季风区的永兴洞和葫芦洞石笋δ18O指示的季风降水同位素组成具有本质上一致性;高低纬记录对比显示,千年尺度的峰谷变化一一对应,反映热带辐合带(ITCZ)水汽传输能力、平均位置变化对东亚季风和高北纬气候具有重要影响。在DO13至DO15事件内部,永兴洞石笋δ18O记录了显著的双峰特征,说明低纬季风强度变化和格陵兰冰芯δ18O揭示的次级暖峰具有一致对应关系,指示大气快速传输机制在高低纬环境突变中起着重要作用。     

中全新世河南南阳石笋记录的百年季风干旱事件

基于河南南阳洞1支石笋的5个230 Th 年龄和186个氧碳同位素数据,建立了中全新世持续1 570a( 6 115～ 4 544a B. P. )较高分辨率东亚季风降水序列。在整个研究时段,石笋氧碳同位素曲线记录了3次弱季风事件,分别发生在5 830～5 720a B. P. 、5 350～ 5 080a B. P.、4 770～ 4 640a B. P. ,其中5 350～ 5 080a B. P.时段持续干旱,历时270a。在测年误差范围内,平均分辨率达4～ 5 a 的氧同位素曲线与相应时段树轮14 C残差曲线基本对应。功率谱分析表明: 南阳洞石笋具有显著的130a 周期旋回,与树轮Δ14 C( 132a )以及低纬地区其它石笋记录的周期变化基本一致,说明中全新世东亚季风降水在百年尺度上可能主要受太阳辐射驱动。      

Homogeneous Indian Monsoon rainfall: Variability and prediction

The Indian summer monsoon rainfall is known to have considerable spatial variability, which imposes some limitations on the all-India mean widely used at present. To prepare a spatially coherent monsoon rainfall series for the largest possible area, fourteen subdivisions covering the northwestern and central parts of India (about 55% of the total area of the country), having similar rainfall characteristics and associations with regional/global circulation parameters are merged and their area-weighted means computed, to form monthly and seasonal Homogeneous Indian Monsoon (HIM) rainfall series for the period 1871–1990. This paper includes a listing of monthly and seasonal rainfall of HIM region. HIM rainfall series has been statistically analysed to understand its characteristics, variability and teleconnections for long-range prediction. HIM rainfall series isfound to be homogeneous, Gaussian distributed and free from persistence. The mean (R) rainfall is 757 mm (87% of annual) and standard deviation (S) 119 mm, with a Coefficient of Variation (CV) of 16%. There were 21 dry (K, -<R S) and 19 wet (R _i R + S) years during 1871–1990. There were clusters of frequent negative departures during 1899–1920 and 1965–1987 and positive departures during 1942–1961. The recent three decades show very high rainfall variability with 10 dry and 6 wet years. The decadal averages were alternatively positive and negative for three consecutive decades, viz., 1871–1900 (positive); 1901–1930 (negative); 1931–1960 (positive) and 1961–1990 (negative) respectively. Significant QBO and autocorrelation at 14th lag have been found in HIM rainfall series. To delineate the changes in the climatic regime of the Indian summer monsoon, sliding correlation coefficients (CCs) between HIM rainfall series and (i) Bombay msl pressure, (ii) Darwin msl pressure and (iii) Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature over the period 1871–1990 have been examined. The 31-year sliding CCs showed the systematic turning points of positive and negative CCs around the years, 1900 and 1940. In the light of other corroborative evidences, these turning points seem to delineate ‘meridional’ monsoon regime during 1871–1900 and 1940–1990 and ‘zonal’ monsoon regime during 1901–1940. The monsoon signal is particularly dominant in many regional and global circulation parameters, during 1951–1990. Using the teleconnections ofHIM series with 12 regional/global circulation parameters during the recent 36-year period 1951–86 regression models have been developed for long-range prediction. In the regression equations 3 to 4 parameters were entered, explaining upto 80% of the variance, depending upon the data period. The parameters that prominently enter the multiple regression equations are (i) Bombay msl pressure, (ii) April 500 mb Ridge at 75°E, (iii) NH temperature, (iv) Nouvelle minus Agalega msl pressure and (v) South American msl pressure. Eleven circulation parameters for the period 1951–80 were subjected to Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and the PC’s were used in the regression model to estimate HIM rainfall. The multiple regression with three PCs explain 72% of variance in HIM rainfall.     

全球季风和季风边缘研究

全球卫星探测和观测资料的积累,使以南海季风、亚洲季风为代表的季风研究兴起了一波研究热潮。区域季风认识的深入,推动了全球季风认识的发展,全球季风概念在20世纪末被提出来,并在21世纪初成为热点研究方向。季风边缘是与全球季风密切相关的概念,东亚夏季风北边缘的近期演变与全球季风过去几十年的减弱有关。全球季风的演变表现为分布全球的大气活动中心和季风槽的活动,[JP2]这些成员组成了一个完整的全球季风系统。按照上述季风研究的发展脉络,系统地总结全球季风和季风边缘研究的进展,并提出未来季风研究的方向会把全球大气活动中心与全球气候槽,包括全球季风槽联系起来,即从季风系统着手研究全球季风的年代际和世纪尺度变率。     

Review of the Global Monsoon and Monsoon Marginal Zones

全球卫星探测和观测资料的积累,使以南海季风、亚洲季风为代表的季风研究兴起了一波研究热潮。区域季风认识的深入,推动了全球季风认识的发展,全球季风概念在20世纪末被提出来,并在21世纪初成为热点研究方向。季风边缘是与全球季风密切相关的概念,东亚夏季风北边缘的近期演变与全球季风过去几十年的减弱有关。全球季风的演变表现为分布全球的大气活动中心和季风槽的活动,这些成员组成了一个完整的全球季风系统。按照上述季风研究的发展脉络,系统地总结全球季风和季风边缘研究的进展,并提出未来季风研究的方向会把全球大气活动中心与全球气候槽,包括全球季风槽联系起来,即从季风系统着手研究全球季风的年代际和世纪尺度变率。     

Aerosol’s Impacts on the Indian Summer Monsoon and the East Asian Summer Monsoon:An Overview

India Peninsula and East Asia are high aerosol loading regions as well as major regions influenced by Asian monsoon. The changes of monsoon intensity and precipitation have great influence on economy, especially agricultural production of monsoon regions. There are many researches of impacts of aerosol on Indian monsoon, which have achieved many comprehensive progresses. Earlier researches show that atmospheric brown cloud caused negative radiative forcing and weakened the warming induced by greenhouse gases. Current researches show that absorbing aerosol enhanced the Indian monsoon and increased rainfall in pre-monsoon season, while the scattering effect of aerosol weakened the Indian summer monsoon and the East Asian summer monsoon and rainfall in monsoon season. Due to so many factors affecting the monsoon, researches of aerosol impacts on monsoon become more complex. Thus, these results remain uncertain. This paper reviews previous researches and generalizes the mechanisms of impacts of aerosols on Asian monsoon. By comparing the East Asian summer monsoon with the Indian summer monsoon, we discussed deficiencies of the prior researches, and pointed out the direction for future researches about the impact of aerosol on the Asian summer monsoon, especially on the East Asian summer monsoon.     

Synoptic weather conditions during the pilot study of Bay of Bengal and Monsoon Experiment (BOBMEX)

BOBMEX-Pilot was organised from 23rd October–11th November, 1998 when the seasonal trough had already shifted to south Bay of Bengal. The activity during this period was marked by the development of a monsoon depression from 26th–29th October that weakened over the sea; onset of northeast monsoon along the east coast of India on 29th October; a low pressure area that formed on 2nd November over southwest Bay off Sri Lanka — southTamilnadu coast; and another cyclonic circulation that formed towards the end of the BOBMEX-Pilot period. This paper describes the development of these synoptic systems through synoptic charts and satellite data.     

“0506”华南持续性暴雨的季风环流背景

提出了确定东亚夏季风活动区域、划分热带季风和副热带季风活动区域的指标,利用大气对流层风速、位势高度、湿度、温度、OLR以及TBB等NCEP/NCAR资料,从月、候和过程平均多种时间尺度,诊断分析了2005年6月(简称“0506”)华南持续性暴雨的季风环流活动变化特征.结果表明:副热带高压强度偏强,西脊点位置偏西偏南,热带西太平洋(130°～140°E)区域越赤道气流偏强,华南处于气旋性低压异常区,无论是月时间尺度还是暴雨过程时间尺度都表现出这些明显特征;暴雨过程水汽除了来源于孟加拉湾和南海外,水汽通量异常部分主要来自南海和热带西太平洋,热带西太平洋水汽随着副高边缘气流经过南海向华南输送,从而为暴雨过程提供了丰富的水汽来源;2005年6月热带季风前沿在华南沿海地区停滞时间比气候平均偏长(2候),该特征是华南暴雨预报值得参考的信号;6月整个南海地区平均季风偏强,主要体现于经向风明显偏强,但华南持续性暴雨过程开始于南海地区夏季风非活跃期,这与热带季风季节内振荡向北传播到华南有关.以上季风活动变化特征为华南强降水提供了有利的动力条件和丰富的水汽来源.     

Climatological Characteristics of the East Asian Winter Monsoon Simulated by CWRF Regional Climate Model

Based on the ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalysis data from the European Medium-Term Weather Forecast Center from 1979 to 2016 and the ERSSTv4 sea surface temperature data from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the regional climate model CWRF was used to simulate the climate characteristics in East Asia. The results show that the CWRF model can well reproduce the average characteristics of the East Asian winter monsoon circulation, including the location and intensity of the low-level continental cold high pressure and variation characteristics of wind field in high and low levels. The occurrence area and frequency of the north wind in the simulation and the reanalysis data were further calculated and compared. It is shown that they are basically consistent. The distribution of air temperature and precipitation over China are well represented by the model. The water vapor transport is also in good agreement with the reanalysis data. The water vapor from the Bay of Bengal plays a vital role in the precipitation over South China. The simulation results of apparent heat source and apparent moisture sink show that the model can well simulate the thermal difference between the East Asian continent and the adjacent sea area. The analysis results indicate that CWRF model has the ability to simulate the main characteristics of the East Asian winter monsoon.     

Study on Summer Monsoon Transition Zone and Its Land-Air Interaction

The Summer Monsoon Transition Zone is a typical area, which is a transitional zone and has a fragile ecological environment. The area also has the most serious drought and soil erosion disaster. Its land-air interaction plays an important role on evolution of weather and climate, and research on land-air interaction in this zone is an important scientific problems. Therefore, a key project, “land-air interaction of the typical summer monsoon transition zone and its response to the summer monsoon”, by National Natural Science Foundation of China aims at this problem. This study summarized the advances about current summer monsoon transition zone and its land-air interaction. Then, based on the characteristics of summer monsoon activities, the formation of this typical area, its advances of climate and environment characteristics were concluded. Peculiarity of land-air interaction in the area was also analyzed comprehensively. Furthermore, the main problems and direction of scientific research in this field are brought forward. It will have scientific guiding significance for in-depth study of land-air interaction in summer monsoon transition zone in future.     

Dynamic Relationship Between Entrainment Rate and Summer Monsoon in the Transition Area of Monsoon in the East of Northwest China

Entrainment rate refers to the ratio of surrounding air quality to air quality involved in rising unit distance, including turbulent entrainment and dynamic entrainment, which are applied to the boundary layer parametrization of convective clouds, the improvement of numerical model, the observation of cloud droplet spectral dispersion and the study of tropical cyclones.Based on the daily data at 07:00 and 19:00 every 10 m of five stations such as Minqin, Yuchong, Pingliang, Yinchuan and Yan'an from May to September during 2006-2016, combined with the daily observation data on the ground, the Entrainment Rates(ER) of different heights were calculated, and the relationships between ER and height in different regions, precipitation as well as monsoon during the monsoon period were further obtained. The main results were as follows:\mathrm{①} The ER was proportional to air temperature and saturated water vapor pressure, but inversely proportional to relative humidity. The relative humidity threshold of cloud was 65%. The higher the relative humidity threshold was, the lower the cloud height of different orders of precipitation was, and the cloud height was higher with the increase of rainfall. \mathrm{②}ER had obvious diurnal changes and regional differences: It was obviously smaller at 07:00 than at 19:00 from ground to 3 km, which weakened with the increase of height in the near surface , but strengthened with the increase of height above 500 m; From small to large, the monsoon affected area, the monsoon swing area and the non-monsoon area were in turn, and there was no regional difference above 3 km. \mathrm{③} ER was closely related to the intensity and property of precipitation in monsoon period. The ER weakened with the enhancement of rain intensity from near ground to below 600 m, but strengthened with the enhancement of rain intensity from 500 m to 2~3 km.From near ground to below 700 m, the ER of stable precipitation was strong, but that of convective precipitation was strong above 700 m. The convective precipitation had big saturated water vapor pressure and strong ER , while the stable precipitation had big saturated water vapor density, rich water vapor but weak ER. \mathrm{④}The relationship between ER and monsoon as well as its duration: From no monsoon to monsoon ER was weakened, the strongest maximum height was also decreasing. There was no significant difference in the duration of ER between the non-monsoon area and the monsoon affected area, but the longer the monsoon swing area lasted in the near ground layer, the smaller the ER was, while the opposite was at 1~2 km in the high altitude. \mathrm{⑤}The relationship between ER and the APO monsoon intensity index showed that: At 07:00, the ER strengthened with height from near ground to below 800 m, but weakened with height above 800 m,and the monsoon intensity was not related to the ER. At 19:00, the ER strengthened with the height near ground but weakened with the height above 300 m, and the stronger the monsoon was, the smaller the ER was. The ER weakened with the decrease of boundary layer height.     

西峰剖面高分辨记录指标研究及古气候重建

对甘肃省西峰黄土- 红粘土剖面的夏季风替代性指标作了全面、系统的测试,包括磁化率、频率磁化率、碳酸盐、有机质和游离氧化铁的测定,并通过碳酸盐和磁化率值来初步恢复古气候变化特征。结果表明, 频率磁化率、有机质、游离铁和磁化率具有正相关关系,而碳酸盐变化与磁化率呈负相关,它们都可以很好地作为夏季风替代性指标。通过数学模型认为整个第四纪古气候变化大致可分为三个大的阶段：0~1.1 Ma BP,1.1~1.9 Ma BP和1.9~2.6 Ma BP。从0.1 Ma 以来,降水量和年均温都有降低趋势,说明气候向着越来越干冷的方向演化。