安达曼海内孤立波的潜标观测分析研究

安达曼海是内孤立波生成最多的海域之一,目前对其研究大多基于卫星遥感,缺乏基于现场观测资料的相关研究。本文通过2016年至2017年布放在安达曼海中部的锚系潜标对该海域内孤立波的方向和强度进行研究,结果表明在研究区域内孤立波主要向东北方向传播,最大振幅可达100 m。应用彻体力理论预测了研究海域内孤立波波源的分布,与遥感统计结果基本一致,并且波源位置更精确,可直观地给出不同波源激发内孤立波的能力。本文分别用浅水方程、深水方程和有限深方程对安达曼海中部内孤立波相速度进行模拟,结合卫星遥感分析发现该海域内孤立波的产生符合Lee波机制,在三种方程中有限深方程的模拟效果与潜标观测最相符。     

基于机器学习的内孤立波波要素关系研究

内孤立波在海洋中的传播会携带能量和动量,不同振幅的内孤立波对海洋中的能量交换及海上工程等影响也不同,因此,研究内孤立波振幅与半波宽度、水深、分层条件、密度等水文特征参量之间的关系显得尤为重要。以往在研究中建立内孤立波振幅与它们之间的关系时,会受到不同理论有效适用范围的限制。本文借助实验室的水槽方法,设计了不同的水深、分层及密度条件下的内孤立波系列综合实验,发现内孤立波的振幅与半波宽度、水深、分层条件以及水体密度等参量之间并非简单线性关系。因此,利用机器学习的方法建立内孤立波振幅与上述参量之间的非线性关系,建立了支持向量机（SVM）和随机森林（RF）两种机器学习模型。将1 266组实验数据建立样本库,其中包含训练集970组,测试集296组,对模型进行参数调优,最终通过测试集验证,SVM模型的平均相对误差为17.3%,RF模型的平均相对误差为15.5%。该方法适用于多种不同的水文条件,有效解决先前理论存在的适用性问题。     

基于BP神经网络的公交动态行程时间预测方法研究

公交行程时间的精确预测对于提升公交吸引力具有重要意义。本文基于公交车到离站的历史数据,综合考虑时间周期、站点、站间距离、天气等多个因素,建立了基于BP神经网络的公交车静态行程时间预测模型,以该模型为基础,采用动态迭代的方法,叠加多个站间行程时间预测结果,进一步构建了面向连续站点的公交车动态行程时间预测模型,实现对跨越多个站点的公交行程时间预测。以青岛市125路公交为例对算法进行测试。在模型的横向对比实验中,本模型预测结果的绝对误差均在50 s以内,平均绝对误差百分比(MAPE)为11.74%,均方根误差(RMSE)为23.15,R2的确定系数为0.905 1,SVM的MAPE、RMSE、R2 误差指标分别为:12.38%、38.33、0.743 6,LR对应的误差指标分别为:12.50%、25.59、0.884 1;在静态模型与动态模型的对比实验中,动态模型预测结果的MAPE为11.75%,RMSE为23.15,静态模型对应误差指标分别为:11.63%、26.74。研究结果表明,基于BP神经网络的公交动态行程时间预测模型比传统的静态预测方法具有更高的预测精度。     

南海东北部深水海域大振幅内孤立波SAR遥感仿真研究

为了克服基于两层海洋的内孤立波SAR遥感仿真模型的缺陷,使用基于连续分层海洋模型的GK-dV方程,在南海东北部深水海域进行了大振幅内孤立波传播模拟,模拟输出内孤立波振幅91.0m,半波宽度262.0m。然后使用新建立的基于连续分层海洋模型的内孤立波SAR遥感仿真模型进行了内孤立波反演,反演出内孤立波半波宽度251.5m...     

一种改进的VMD-XGBoost验潮站月海面高序列预测模型

海平面不断上升威胁人类的生命安全,高精度的海平面预测对人类预防水文灾害具有重要意义。现有的预测方法因验潮站数据为单一时间序列而难以进行高精度预测。针对此问题,提出一种融合变分模态分解(VMD)和极度梯度提升算法(XGBoost)的变分模态分解-极度梯度提升预测模型,简称VMD-XGBoost模型。与XGBoost模型、卷积神经网络与长短期记忆神经网络混合模型(CNN-LSTM)、变分模态-卷积神经网络与长短期记忆神经网络混合模型(VMD-CNN-LSTM)对比,对荷兰沿岸海平面验潮站时间序列进行预测。验潮站预测结果分析表明：相较于XGBoost模型,VMD-XGBoost模型预测结果的均方根误差平均降低65.43%,平均绝对误差平均降低63.79%,平均绝对百分比误差平均降低63.44%,且相较于VMD-CNN-LSTM模型,VMD-XGBoost模型在验潮站海面高序列预测上具有更高预测精度,可实现高精度验潮站时间序列预测。     

基于哨兵一号和高分三号卫星SAR数据的马六甲海峡内孤立波特性研究

漫长狭窄的马六甲海峡是重要的航道，研究该海峡内孤立波特征对潜艇、船只航行和海洋工程都是急需解决的问题。利用高空间分辨率的哨兵1号（Sentinel-1）和高分三号（GF-3）SAR遥感数据，对马六甲海峡的内孤立波特征开展了详细研究。利用哨兵一号2015年6月到2016年12月20景有内孤立波的SAR图像和高分三号2018年4月到2019年3月24景有内孤立波的SAR图像，统计分析了马六甲海峡海域的内孤立波空间分布特征。发现内孤立波多以内孤立波包以及单根内孤立波形式出现，内孤立波头波的波峰线最长可达39km。采用高阶非线性薛定谔方程反演模型可以计算出内孤立波的振幅与群速度，计算得到的内孤立波振幅和波包的传播群速度分别为4.7m ~ 23.9m和0.12m/s ~ 0.40m/s。由KdV方程得到的单根内孤立波的相速度为0.26m/s ~ 0.60m/s。可以得到，马六甲海峡内孤立波的振幅与传播速度与地形密切相关。     

海洋内孤立波作用下潜体运动响应特性研究

2021年4月印度尼西亚海军“南伽拉402”号潜艇在巴厘岛以北约60海里（111.12 km）处发生沉没,分析表明大振幅海洋内孤立波作用可能是事故原因之一。基于大振幅内孤立波eKdV理论与Morison公式建立了内孤立波作用下潜艇的运动学模型,揭示不同内孤立波振幅、潜艇潜深条件下潜艇的运动响应特性,进一步说明内孤立波可能造成印度尼西亚潜艇失事。结果表明：内孤立波对潜艇的运动状态产生巨大影响。垂直方向上潜艇在短时间内产生大幅度掉深,而水平方向上其运动方向在密度界面上或界面处与内孤立波传播方向一致,界面下则相反,且内孤立波产生的垂向力矩可能造成潜艇倾覆。不同波幅、潜深下潜艇表现出不同的运动响应规律。研究表明印度尼西亚潜艇失事可能是潜艇执行任务过程中遭遇了较大振幅内孤立波,导致其发生大幅度、迅速掉深。     

南海东北部C型内孤立波的观测与分析

基于布放在南海东北部陆坡海域的5套潜标观测到的内孤立波波列数据和孤立波扰动KdV(PKdV)理论,研究内孤立波在趋浅陆架上的传播特征。得出如下结果:1)观测到的内孤立波属于C型内孤立波,即平均重现周期为(23.41±0.31)h。2)内孤立波在西传爬坡过程中,其振幅表现为先增大后减小再增大,与该海域温跃层深度的变化趋势一致;由观测数据和理论计算得到的孤立波振幅增长率(SAGR)数值接近,表明该海域的内孤立波的振幅变化可以采用由孤立波PKdV方程导出的趋浅温跃层理论来描述。3)随着水深变浅,内孤立波传播方向向北偏移,传播速度减小,即在A,B和D站位,传播方向分别为279°,296°和301°,偏转角度达22°;传播速度分别为2.36,2.23和1.47 m/s,减小38%。     

变系数EKdV模型在模拟南海北部大振幅内孤立波传播和裂变中的应用

利用垂向连续分层变系数EKdV模型,模拟了南海北部海域大振幅内孤立波的传播和裂变过程,并与观测数据进行比较。结果表明:连续分层变系数EKdV模型能够较好地反映振幅小于100m的内孤立波的振幅和波宽,对于更大振幅的强非线性内波,该模型模拟的振幅和波宽均较实测较小;非线性模态函数能够较准确地反映温度振荡的垂直结构,而水平流速的大小和垂直结构则与线性模态较符合。研究结果表明,变系数EKdV模型能够为研究和理解大振幅内孤立波的传播和裂变过程提供较好的理论支持。     

基于遥感图像的南海北部内孤立波及相互作用研究

本文通过对卫星遥感图像中的内孤立波及相互作用现象进行统计分析,讨论了南海北部内孤立波及相互作用现象的时空分布特征,验证了利用卫星遥感图像反演内孤立波振幅和传播速度以及研究内波相互作用现象的可行性。统计结果表明,南海北部的内孤立波主要集中在东沙群岛以及海南岛南部,内波相互作用主要集中在东沙岛西北部以及海南岛南部。本文对此给出解释:内波传播至东沙岛附近发生绕射,绕射的内波分裂成两列后以不同的传播方向继续向西传播,相遇并发生相互作用;内波在海南岛浅滩处发生反射,与后续传来的内波发生相互作用。同时,本文利用Korteweg-de Vries (KdV)方程和Benjamin-One(BO)方程,结合观测数据,对内波振幅和传播速度进行了反演实验。反演所得的内波振幅和传播速度与南海北部实际内波振幅和传播速度相近。     

基于光学遥感的安达曼海内孤立波传播速度特性研究

安达曼海内孤立波非常活跃且错综复杂，传播速度是内孤立波的重要特征参量，本文采用光学遥感手段建立了内孤立波传播速度的计算方法。收集并处理大量Terra/Aqua-MODIS遥感图像，利用两景图像追踪同一内孤立波与同一激发源产生的内孤立波波群两种方法定量研究安达曼海内孤立波传播速度。研究结果表明:安达曼海内孤立波传播速度在0.5～2.7 m/s之间，内孤立波传播方向主要受海底地形的影响，传播速度大小在传播过程中随水深变浅而呈减小的趋势，在深水区传播速度大小还呈现出季节性差异。     

Internal solitary waves in the East China Sea

A European Space Agency＇ s ENVISAT advanced synthetic aperture radar （ASAR） image covering Zhejiang coastal water in the East China Sea （ECS） was acquired on 1 August 2007. This image shows that there are about 20 coherent internal solitary wave （ISW） packets propagating southwestward toward Zhejiang coast. These ISW packets are separated by about 10 kin, suggesting that these ISWs are tide-generated waves. Each ISW packet contains 5-15 wave crests. The wavelengths of the wave crests within the ISW packets are about 300 m. The lengths of the leading wave crests are about 50 km. The ISW amplitude is estimated from solving KdV equation in an ideal two-layer ocean model. It is found that the ISW amplitudes is about 8 m. Further analysis of the ASAR image and ocean stratification profiles show that the observed ISWs are depression waves. Analyzing the tidal current finds that these waves are locally generated. The wavelength and amplitude of the ECS ISW are much smaller than their counter- parts in the South China Sea （SCS）. The propagation speed of the ECS ISW is also an order of magnitude smaller than that of the SCS ISW. The observed ISWs in the ECS happened during a spring tide period.     

A study of internal solitary waves observed on the continental shelf in the northwestern South China Sea

Based on in-situ time series data from the acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) and thermistor chain in Wenchang area, a sequence of internal solitary wave (ISW) packets was observed in September 2005, propagating northwest on the continental shelf of the northwestern South China Sea (SCS). Corresponding to different stratification of the water column and tidal condition, both elevation and depression ISWs were observed at the same mooring location with amplitude of 35 m and 25 m respectively in different days. Regular arrival of the remarkable ISW packets at approximately the diurnal tidal period and the dominance of diurnal internal waves in the study area, strongly suggest that the main energy source of the waves is the diurnal tide. Notice that the wave packets were all riding on the troughs and shoulders of the internal tides, they were probably generated locally from the shelf break by the evolution of the internal tides due to nonlinear and dispersive effects.     

Remote sensing survey and research on internal solitary waves in the South China Sea-Western Pacific-East Indian Ocean (SCS-WPAC-EIND)

Internal solitary waves (ISWs) are common mesoscale dynamic processes in the ocean that are spread throughout the world’s oceans. The South China Sea (SCS), Western Pacific (WPAC) and Indian Ocean (EIND) (SCS-WPAC-EIND) are areas where ISWs frequently occur. In particular, in the northern part of the South China Sea, Sulu Sea, Celebes Sea, Andaman Sea, Lombok Strait and northeastern part of Taiwan Island, ISWs exist almost year-round. Remote sensing is an important technique to carry out investigations and research on ISWs on a large scale. In particular, optical sensors represented by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) can observe ISWs for a long time and on a large scale, while SAR sensors such as Sentinel-1 A/B can compensate for the deficiencies in optical sensors and comprehensively observe ISWs. Based on many years of remote sensing surveys of ISWs, this paper uses MODIS and Sentinel-1 satellite remote sensing images of more than 70 000 scenes from 2010 to 2020 to carry out survey studies of ISWs in the SCS-WPAC-EIND. The survey systematically gives the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of ISWs in the SCS-WPAC-EIND and focuses on the analysis of the ISW characteristics in main areas in the SCS-WPAC-EIND, thereby providing basic data for further research on ISWs.     

基于光学遥感MODIS的安达曼海内波时空分布与传播特性研究

This paper describes investigations of the internal waves in the Andaman Sea using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS) imagery over the period of June 2010 to May 2016. Results of the spatial and temporal distribution, generation sources and propagation characteristics of internal waves are presented. The statistical analysis shows that internal waves can be observed in almost the entire area of the Andaman Sea. Most internal waves are observed in the northern, central and southern regions of the Andaman Sea. A significant number of internal waves between 7°N and 9°N in the East Indian Ocean are also observed. Internal waves can be observed year-round in the Andaman Sea, while most of internal waves are observed between February and April, with a maximum frequency of 15.03% in March. The seasonal distribution of the internal waves shows that the internal waves have mostly been observed in the dry season(February to April), and fewer internal waves are observed in the rainy season(May to October). The double peak distribution for the occurrence frequency of internal waves is found. With respect to the lunar influence, more internal waves are observed after the spring tide, which implies the spring tide may play an important role in internal wave generation in the Andaman Sea. Generation sources of internal waves are explored based on the propagation characteristics of internal waves. The results indicate that six sources are located between the Andaman Islands and the Nicobar Islands, and one is located in the northern Andaman Sea. Four regions with active internal wave phenomenon in the Andaman Sea were presented during the MODIS survey, and the propagation speed of internal waves calculated based on the semidiurnal generation period is smaller than the results acquired from pairs of the images with short time intervals.     

A 2D-numerical modeling of the generation and propagation of internal solitary waves in the Luzon Strait

The wide presence of internal solitary waves (ISWs) in the northern South China Sea (SCS) has been confirmed by both Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images and in situ observations. These ISWs are believed being generated over the varying topography in the Luzon Strait. They typically propagate westwards into the SCS with a diurnal or semidiurnal period. Their generation sites are, however, not yet solidly identified. To obtain a clear picture of the ISWs, we designed numerical experiments to analyze the generation and propagation of the ISWs in the Luzon Strait using a 2-dimensional non-hydrostatic model. The model current is forced by barotropic or baroclinic currents imposed at open boundaries. The experiments show that the tidal current serves as a kind of triggering force for the ISWs over the submarine ridges in the strait. Under the forcing of tidal currents, depressions are formed near the ridges. The ISWs then split from the depressions through a process different from lee-wave generation mechanism. The appearance of the ISWs is influenced by the strength and period of the forcing current:the ISWs are more likely to be generated by a stronger tidal current. That is why the ISWs in the Luzon Strait are frequently observed during spring tide. Compared with diurnal tidal current, the ISWs generated by semidiurnal tidal current with the same amplitude is much more energetic. It is partly because that the wave beams in diurnal frequency have a larger angle with the vertical direction, thus are more likely to be reflected by the topography slope. The impact of the Kuroshio to the ISWs is also analyzed by adding a vertical uniform or shear current at boundaries. A vertically uniform current may generate ISWs directly. On the other hand, a vertically shear current, which is more realistic to represent the Kuroshio branch, seems to have little influence on the generation process and radiating direction of the ISWs in the Luzon Strait.