初始化方案对有限区域海面风场数值预报模式的影响

在一个已应用于海洋要素预报的有限区域海面风场预报模式的基础上,以渤海海域为实验海区,研究初始化方案对有限区域海面风场数值预报模式的影响。对“未采用初始化”与“采用初始化”方法进行了预报实验比较,结果表明,初始化方法对有限区域海面风场模式作用明显,尤其是海面风场的开始阶段,主要体现在海风与陆风预报能力的差异上。     

海面风场的数值预报业务模式

海面风场的业务数值预报，经过六年的运行和不断改进，目前已建立了包括资料处理、客观分析、大气模式和边界展模式在内的数值预报业务化系统，它能提供１５°～４５°Ｎ、１ｈ５°～１４１°Ｅ海域内１°×１°经纬网格点上的７２小时的预报风场，该风场除为日常业务预报提供参考外，还为海浪和海冰业务模式提供强迫场。本文主要介绍大气模式和边界层模式的概况以及系统的运行结果。     

渤海溢油数值预报研究

以溢油漂移扩散模式为核心,采用"油粒子"方法来模拟溢油在海洋环境中的漂移扩散行为,与业务化渤海三维海洋数值预报模式、中尺度海洋风场数值预报模式相衔接,获得海流、海面风场等海洋环境预报产品作为溢油模式的外强迫,建立了渤海溢油数值预报系统.本文简要介绍了该系统的组成、运行机制和模拟试验情况,并讨论了建立我国全海域溢油预报系统的有关问题.     

有限区域海面风场数值模式的建立

目前,国内外大尺度天气预报数值模式已经取得很大成就,如在预报地面气旋系统的移动和发展等方面。然而,这些模式的铅直分辨率一般不高,通常不包括边界层的动力过程,因而,在预报海面风场上,数值天气预报模式还没有令人满意的效果。目前所用的边界层预报模式尽管具有较高的水平分辨率和垂直分辨率,但要求大量的计算和资料,很难用于日常业务预报;另一种边界层诊断模式,用到的风场数据是气象工作者从天气形势(大尺度)分析中,通过差值等方法获得的,缺乏针对性,而且精度较低(WMO,1988;WMO,1990)。 作者认为,适于海洋要素预报的风场模式应是定位于有限区域,或称中尺度模式,并根据台站的具体资料来源和工作状况力争建立一套适于海洋要素预报的中尺度风场数值模式。鉴于以上,作者建立了一个适于海洋要素预报的有限区域海面风场数值模式。模式采用符合动力及热力学条件的简化方程组对大尺度风场进行加密,通过数值模拟得到适于海洋要素预报的有限区域海面风场。并将该模式运用于渤海这一有限区域,获得了良好的效果,说明该模式对海洋要素预报具有很好的应用前景。     

SST短期数值预报

以海洋原始方程组为基础,用SST常规船舶资料形成初始场,以气象预报产品提供海表面的强迫场,建立了一个有限区域的SST短期(3～5d)动力数值二维预报模式,开创了第一代SST短期数值预报模式.利用此模式进行了试预报,预报效果良好,实现了表层海水温度数值预报业务化运行,实效为3d的预报精度均方误差达到1.0℃左右.     

WRF与MM5在印度洋海域业务化预报结果的对比分析

国家海洋环境预报中心基于MM5模式及WRF模式构建了两套印度洋海域数值预报系统。文中利用这两套系统2012年1月一12月期间的业务化数值预报结果,结合亚丁湾海域两个随船观测站点的观测资料,对亚丁湾海域进行了预报与观测的对比分析;并收集了世界气象组织(WMO)全球气象通信系统(GTS)2012年海洋大气观测资料,对印度洋海域的业务化预报结果进行了检验。结果表明:WRF模式与MM5模式均能很好的对海面风场、温度场和气压场进行预报,WRF模式在风速预报上较MM5模式没有明显改进,但对气温、气压和风向的预报准确性都有所提高;WRF模式风场34h、58h、82h预报与10h预报的差异较MM5模式都有所缩小,说明WRF模式对长时段风场预报的准确度优于MM5模式。     

基于贝叶斯理论的中国近海网格化气象要素概率预报研究

基于贝叶斯理论建立了一种基本概率预报模式,将欧洲中期天气预报中心数值模式的确定性海面风场预报转换为概率预报,并对概率化后的释用产品进行了评估与检验。对2016年3月和4月释用产品的检验结果表明,在中国近海1425个渔区的全风速预报中,贝叶斯概率预报准确率均较高;对6级及以上大风的预报,贝叶斯概率预报的准确率也较高,且空报率低,无漏报。本文的研究成果为预报员进行业务预报具有指导性意义,同时将为进一步构建海面风场的网格化业务预报体系奠定了技术基础。     

基于星载SAR数据和模式资料的海面风场变分融合方法研究

为实现合成孔径雷达数据与数值预报模式资料融合,提高海面风场精度和业务化运用水平,提出了一种基于星载SAR数据与模式资料的变分融合方法。其研究思路是采用二维连续小波变换提取SAR图像中高精度风条纹风向,结合地球物理模型函数求解海面风场的经向分量和纬向分量,然后采用Kriging插值方法将数值预报模式风速插值到SAR海面风场覆盖区域,得到SAR风速观测算子,由此构建SAR风场与模式风场融合的代价函数,并采用变分方法求解分析风场,最终得到融合后的海面风场结果。仿真分析结果表明,变分融合后的海面风速和风向结果更接近于理想值,尤其在SAR海面风场覆盖区域更为明显。选取ENVISAT/ASAR资料和与其时空匹配的欧洲中期天气预报中心模式风场资料开展实例验证,结果表明融合后的海面风场结果比模式风场更加接近于浮标观测结果。     

人机交互式台风浪业务预报系统的研制及应用

基于国内外海洋灾害业务化预警系统研究基础,进行台风浪数值预报产品释用的人机交互技术研究。利用软件工程原理开展系统需求分析、功能实现和数据库架构设计,采用地理信息系统(GIS)技术构建界面布局和人机交互界面,通过WEBGIS平台建立交互式预报制作和发布系统,实现了数值预报系统业务化自动运行、数值预报产品标准化管理、数据分析与可视化表达、人机交互偏差订正与成图发布等多种功能;以2011年5号台风"米雷"为试预报案例,验证了系统的制作和发布功能,实现了区域环台风浪预警报系统的的业务化应用。     

WaveWatch III 和SWAN模型嵌套技术在业务化海浪预报系统中的应用及检验

根据钓鱼岛海域海监巡航执法保障预报、重点海洋安全保障目标精细化预报等海浪业务化预报工作的新需求,基于 WRF 海面风场预报模型,利用结构网格海浪模型WaveWatch 芋和非结构网格海浪模型SWAN （Simulating Waves Nearshore） 的嵌套计算,建立一套适用于东海区和上海近海的海浪数值预报系统。通过不同数值实验,证明此系统的稳定性和时效性。 利用观测数据对连续2 个月的有效波高值的预报结果进行检验,结果表明：24小时预报平均绝对误差在0.3 m以下;48 小时 预报平均绝对误差在0.5 m以下;72 小时预报平均绝对误差在0.7 m以下,且误差极值主要是由台风过程引起,但预报趋势 仍值得参考。对2次台风过程采用不同风场源数据进行对比试验,结果显示采用实况路径的后报风场,海浪预报精度明显改 善。对于近岸区域采用嵌套计算的SWAN模型预报结果比WaveWatch III 模型预报结果精度显著提高,证明建立的海浪数值 预报系统在满足“稳定性”和“时效性”的基础上,各尺度和分辨率的预报产品“准确性”也能得到保证。     

Wave-in-deck loads on exposed jetties

This paper presents results from research on the hydraulic loadings of exposed (unsheltered) jetties (open pile piers with decks and beams). The work presented here focuses on results from physical model tests on wave-induced loads on deck and beam elements of exposed jetties and similar structures. These tests investigated the physics of the loading process, and provided new guidance on wave-in-deck loads to be used in design. Wave forces and pressures were measured on a 1:25 scale model of a jetty head with projecting elements. Structure geometry and wave conditions tested were selected after an extensive literature review (summarised in the paper) and consultation with the project steering group. Different configurations were tested to separate 2-d and 3-d effects, and to identify the effects of inundation and of down-standing beams.     

The use of ocean color remote sensing in integrated coastal zone management—A case study from Himmerfjärden,Sweden

In this study the use of ocean color data as a diagnostic tool in integrated coastal zone management was investigated as part of the Science Policy Integration for Coastal Systems Assessment (SPICOSA) project. Parallel to this, an operational coastal monitoring system has been set up in close collaboration with end-users. The core work of the bio-optical part in the project was to develop Secchi depth and attenuation of light as indicators for coastal zone management, by linking remote sensing with the socio-economic and ecological model developed in SPICOSA. The article emphasizes the benefits of stakeholder involvement and end-user feedback for efficient and improved system development. Furthermore, conceptual models were developed on how to integrate remote sensing data into coastal zone management and into a physical-biological model of the Baltic Sea. One of the work packages in the SPICOSA project was academic training. In this work package, on-line teaching material in the field of remote sensing and bio-optics was developed and disseminated on the SETnet web page. The article presented here may act as supportive material for training in bio-optics and remote sensing.     

Glacially influenced basin plain sedimentation in the southern Faeroe-Shetland Channel, northwest United Kingdom continental margin

Quaternary sediments at the southwest end of the Faeroe-Shetland Channel are preserved as a basin plain succession of variable fill geometry and lithology. In high-resolution seismic profiles the basin plain succession is characterised by laterally discontinuous and transparent, mounded lensoid bodies interbedded with acoustically well-layered sediments which display drape and onlapping reflection configurations. The lensoid bodies comprise an up to 50 m thick amalgamated package of mass-flow deposits consisting primarily of debris-flow diamictons. They represent resedimented glacigenic deposits derived from the West Shetland Shelf. Accumulation of these packages was episodic and related to specific rapid phases of downslope resedimentation, most probably concomitant with ice-marginal deposition on the West Shetland Slope. The acoustically well-layered sediments include glaciomarine hemipelagites and contourites. These indicate phases of reduced sediment supply from the adjacent shelf and slope areas, and probably represent the more pervasive “background” sedimentation in the basin. Although weak bottom-current activity may have prevailed throughout the glacial episodes, the onset of vigorous bottom-current circulation occurred at the changeover from a glacial to an interglacial regime. The debris flow packages form about 50% of the basin-plain sediments in this part of the Faeroe-Shetland Channel, thereby forming a significant component of the deep-water succession.     

The Long-term Ecosystem Observatory: an integrated coastalobservatory

An integrated ocean observatory has been developed and operated in the coastal waters off the central coast of New Jersey, USA. One major goal for the Long-term Ecosystem Observatory (LEO) is to develop a real-time capability for rapid environmental assessment and physical/biological forecasting in coastal waters. To this end, observational data are collected from satellites, aircrafts, ships, fixed/relocatable moorings and autonomous underwater vehicles. The majority of the data are available in real-time allowing for adaptive sampling of episodic events and are assimilated into ocean forecast models. In this observationally rich environment, model forecast errors are dominated by uncertainties in the model physics or future boundary conditions rather than initial conditions. Therefore, ensemble forecasts with differing model parameterizations provide a unique opportunity for model refinement and validation. The system has been operated during three annual coastal predictive skill experiments from 1998 through 2000. To illustrate the capabilities of the system, case studies on coastal upwelling and small-scale biological slicks are discussed. This observatory is one part of the expanding network of ocean observatories that will form the basis of a national observation network     

Export flux and stability as regulators of community composition in pelagic marine biological communities: Implications for regime shifts

Regime shifts occur when a system transitions from one stable configuration to another. Such abrupt changes in biological communities may reflect small changes in environmental conditions such as temperature, oxygen concentration, or irradiance. Although it seems clear that biological communities are not randomly organized with respect to their functional components, there is disagreement concerning the factors that control that organization. In this paper, I examine the implications of assuming that the composition of pelagic marine biological communities evolves to a condition of maximum stability or resilience. At temperatures of 25 °C or less, a model based on this hypothesis predicts abrupt and discontinuous transitions from configurations associated with low export ratios to configurations associated with high export ratios as the rate of primary production increases. Comparison between field data and model predictions shows very good agreement at low and high production rates, but the field data do not support a step-function transition from low to high export ratios at intermediate rates of production. Instead, the field data are consistent with the assumption that food webs effect the transition between high and low ef ratio modes by reconfiguring themselves in a more-or-less continuous manner. The configurations associated with these transitions are at least locally more resilient than any similar food web structure.     

Computer modeling and the design of optimal underwater imagingsystems

A computer model to simulate the formation of underwater images has been developed. The model incorporates the inherent and apparent properties of the propagation of light in water. An image is approximated as a linear superposition of several image components. The model has been used to simulate the relative advantages of different camera/light configurations. The results indicate that extremely large gains in image contrast can be obtained by careful design of beam patterns and the manipulation of camera and light locations. The performance of range-gated systems is explored, and it is demonstrated that these systems are presently power limited. In order to obtain better quality images at larger distances, an imaging configuration which consists of scanning an incoherent light beam across the field of view of a camera is proposed. The incoherent light-scanning system is shown to have advantages over both conventional imaging techniques and range-gated methods     

Simulation of Storm Surge and Wave Due to Typhoon Isewan (5915)

An integrally coupled wave-tide-surge model was developed and then applied to the simulation of the wave-typhoon surge for the typhoon Isewan (typhoon Vera (5915)), which is the strongest typhoon that has struck Japan and caused incalculable damage. An integrally coupled tide-surge-wave model using identical and homogeneous meshes in an unstructured grid system was used to correctly resolve the physics of wave-circulation interaction in both models. All model components were validated independently. The storm surge and wave properties such as the surge height, the significant wave height, wave period and direction were reproduced reasonably under the meteorological forcing, which was reprocessed to be close to the observations. The resulting modeling system can be used extensively for the prediction of the storm surge and waves and the usual barotropic forecast.     

Simulation of Storm Surge and Wave Due to Typhoon Isewan(5915)

An integrally coupled wave-tide-surge model was developed and then applied to the simulation of the wave-typhoon surge for the typhoon Isewan(typhoon Vera(5915)), which is the strongest typhoon that has struck Japan and caused incalculable damage. An integrally coupled tide-surge-wave model using identical and homogeneous meshes in an unstructured grid system was used to correctly resolve the physics of wave-circulation interaction in both models. All model components were validated independently. The storm surge and wave properties such as the surge height, the significant wave height, wave period and direction were reproduced reasonably under the meteorological forcing, which was reprocessed to be close to the observations. The resulting modeling system can be used extensively for the prediction of the storm surge and waves and the usual barotropic forecast.     

Dynamic Analysis of Deep-Ocean Mining Pipe System by Discrete Element Method

The dynamic analysis of a pipe system is one of the most crucial problems for the entire mining system.A discrete element method(DEM)is proposed for the analysis of a deep-ocean mining pipe system,including the lift pipe,pump,buffer and flexible hose.By the discrete element method,the pipe is divided into some rigid elements that are linked by flexible connectors.First,two examples representing static analysis and dynamic analysis respectively are given to show that the DEM model is feasible.Then the three-dimensional DEM model is used for dynamic analysis of the mining pipe system.The dynamic motions of the entire mining pipe system under different work conditions are discussed.Some suggestions are made for the actual operation of deep-ocean mining systems.     

Morphodynamic classification of sandy beaches in low energetic marine environment

Morphodynamic classification of beaches has achieved widespread acceptance in both geological and geomorphological literature. In this sense, the present work classifies twelve Mediterranean low energetic beaches according to the dimensionless fall parameter (Ω) parameter in the Island of Mallorca. Propagation of 44 yr of wave data as well as a detailed sediment study allows to provide probabilities for morphodynamical beach state on an annual and seasonal basis. Consequently, beaches in Mallorca fall between three major categories which are (a) truly reflective, (b) reflective skewed to intermediate and (c) intermediate beaches. The Mallorcan beach position in the morphodynamical scheme is close related to the physiographical and geological framework. Comparison of observed values with those obtained in the analysis leads that for gross beach classification there is agreement between predicted and real state. However on a seasonal classification, mainly during summer, there is no agreement between the predicted state and the real one. As the model does not incorporate the role of summer sea breezes, beach reflective states are highlighted. Real beach configurations correspond to more energetic wave dynamic conditions and to intermediate state scenarios.