台湾海峡强震活动及其动力环境

本文根据１９９４年９月１６日台湾海峡７．３级强震序列的空间活动图象变化特征，结合历史地震资料，比较分析了台湾海峡区域史今地震活动的总体演变过程，表明该区强震发生与周边地区的台湾，日本及菲律宾大地地震，在时间进程，强度变化和地域分布关系上存在关地球物理场变化的影响。     

红河断裂带及其邻区的震源机制解特征及其反映的断裂活动分段性

对红河断裂带及其邻区219个地震的相关数据进行震源机制解分析,阐述了红河断裂带不同区段的地震分布特征及其地震类型的差异性,结合对研究区区域深部动力学条件的分析,从地震发生及其深部动力学特征分析红河断裂带活动的分段性特征,取得如下新认识:(1)红河断裂带北西段由于受印-藏碰撞影响而显现出挤压应力场特征,断裂活动具有逆断特征和局部拉张应力场下的正断特征;(2)中段作为华南亚板块与印支亚板块之间的主体剪切活动带,显现剪切应力场特征,断裂以剪切活动为主;(3)南东段在断裂带右旋走滑的基础上,受到深部物质抬升、岩石圈拉伸减薄的影响,而表现出张扭应力场性质,断裂活动显现张扭特征.     

天津近海应力集中区与地震—火山活动的空间分布关系

天津近海地区受中—新生代以来多期构造运动叠加的影响,现今区域应力场最大压应力主轴方向为NEE—SWW向,同时区内NE向和近EW向活动断裂众多,新生代地震、火山活动强烈。从应力场和断裂相互影响的角度出发,综合应力集中的分布模式和大量文献资料,划分天津近海地区断裂附近的应力集中区;对比区域内地震活动和火山岩的空间分布特点,探讨天津滨海、近海地区应力集中区与地震、火山活动之间的关系。     

中国近海地震活动特征

本文根据中国近海海域历史及现代强震活动的时空分布与相邻大陆地震活动的关系、强震发生的构造条件、震源机制应力场等探讨了该区地震活动特征.结果表明海域强震多分布在近海区:有渤海、南黄海二个强震集中、频度高的“地震窝”;有泉州、南澳和琼州三个强度高但频度低的强震区.海域强震活动与相邻大陆的大震活动时间有明显的相关性,整个海域的强震活动的时间分布亦有其共同的活跃期和平静期.海域强震发生的构造条件与大陆地震的相近,常发生在新生代特别是第四纪以来的强烈断陷区.海域地震应力场方向与邻近大陆的完全一致,它们好似大陆地震应力场轨迹线向板块边界处的自然延伸.该区强震活动与周围板块的构造运动密切相关.     

河口潮滩地貌和沉积物对人类工程的响应特征

河口潮滩受径潮流的共同作用，在自然环境与人类活动的影响下处于不断的动态调整中，其中大型人类工程往往对其短期地貌变化和沉积物特征产生巨大影响。2013年底至2014年5月，长江口崇明东滩北部开展大规模互花米草治理工程，本文基于地面三维激光扫描技术、植被点云数据滤除算法、沉积物取样以及室内粒度分析等手段，对比了工程前后潮滩地貌与沉积物特征。研究发现:（1）完工后研究区域靠海及南侧区域出现明显冲刷，北侧虽出现淤积，但整个区域平均冲刷幅度仍达4 cm；（2）工程前研究区域沉积物平均中值粒径为29 μm，工程完工后沉积物平均中值粒径则增大到38 μm；（3）工程完工后沉积物靠海及南侧区域明显粗化，北侧沉积物则变细。结果表明，围垦工程会造成邻近潮滩大幅冲刷以及表层沉积物粗化，但潮滩不同区域地貌和沉积物特征对工程的响应仍存在空间差异性。研究揭示尽管河口潮滩长期演变过程受流域来沙条件影响，但围垦工程等局部影响因素会短期内显著改变潮滩动力地貌过程。     

局部叠加地震振幅数据AVA同步反演控制因素的敏感性分析

认为合成地震振幅与记录地震振幅反演随AVA数据角度的变化，可用于评价与数据有关的各因素对预测弹性属性空间分布垂向分辨率及精度的影响程度。利用墨西哥湾中部深水油气藏测量数据生成合成地震振幅数据，并分别用合成振幅及记录地震振幅评价反演结果。详细的合成振幅敏感性分析结果表明，即使在最理想的状态下（完全偏移数据、各向同性介质、无噪声地震振幅数据、足够的远角度覆盖范围、以及准确估算的与角度有关的子波和低频成分），输入的弹性模型仍不能通过合成地震振幅准确重建。我们将这一结果归因于地震振幅数据较低的垂向分辨率。P-波阻抗是反演属性中最为准确的参数，其次为S-波阻抗和体密度。此外，足够的远角度覆盖范围对于准确估算一维线性S-波阻抗和体密度的分布至关重要。用于剩余动校正（NMO）效应的局部角度叠加时间排列有助于提高预测弹性属性空间分布的垂向分辨率并可稳定降低数据错合。最后，研究发现反演弹性参数分布的精度可通过以下方法得以显著提高：（1）通过多次单角度叠加增加AVA信息；（2）对用于计算局部角度叠加的P-波速度场进行校正；（3）剔除低信噪比的远角度数据。     

南海周边相对海平面变化特征及2004年苏门答腊地震影响分析

利用南海周边1989-2014年的潮汐资料和GPS长期观测资料,分析了南海周边相对海平面变化特征,以及2004年苏门答腊地震对该区域相对海平面变化的影响。研究结果表明,南海周边的相对海平面变化以上升为主,平均上升速率（4.53±0.20） mm/a,高于全球平均速率,且2004年后上升趋势加剧;南海周边相对海平面呈现6类较典型的变化特征,并存在与板块构造相对应的分区聚集现象,形成了中国东南和越南沿海、马来半岛、加里曼丹岛北部、菲律宾群岛等4个变化特征区。受2004年苏门答腊大地震的影响,马来半岛、南沙和西沙海域的地壳形变由上升趋势转为下沉,加剧了相对海平面的上升;中国东南沿海和菲律宾群岛受地震影响较小;越南沿海和加里曼丹岛北部区域的地震影响还有待进一步研究。     

热带西太平洋海洋上层热含量的分布特征及其年际变化的分析

选用海面至20℃等温线所处深度水层的平均温度来表征研究海域海洋上层热含量。利用这一特征值，分析1986—1990年期间热带西太平洋边缘海域海洋上层热含量在秋季的分布特征和年际变化。结果表明：（1）热含量呈南高北低分布，在7．5－22．1°N范围内。以130°E断面为代表，热含量的平均递减率为0．179（℃／纬度）；（2）热含量的分布主要取决于环流系统，其等值线因受黑潮和棉兰老海流的影响而由纬向分布转向经向分布。某些区域因受暖涡及冷涡的影响而呈封闭状分布；（3）热含量的年际变化与E1Nino事件存在着很好的相关性，在E1Nino事件发生期间，热含量变得很低，高热含量（大于26．5℃）海区的分布范围明显缩小。     

一个高分辨率太平洋-印度洋海盆环流模式的初步结果

利用LASG/IAP发展的一个0.25°×0.25°高分辨率太平洋-印度洋海盆环流模式，初步分析了模式在太平洋区域的模拟结果，并与海洋同化资料以及前人的研究结果作比较，检验此模式对该区域平均气候态、年际变化的模拟能力。分析表明，模式较好地再现了海表温度（SST）分布、赤道温跃层和纬向流结构、赤道流系分布形态、海表高度以及正压流函数空间分布特征；同时，对显著的El Ni?o和La Ni?a事件的模拟等方面与Simple Ocean Data Assimilation（SODA）2.0.2版本结果相近。此外，模式模拟北赤道流（NEC）分叉点位置的季节和年际变化以及吕宋海峡流量的年际变化与已有研究结果基本一致。进一步分析还发现，在年际尺度上，NEC分叉点位置和吕宋海峡流量与ENSO密切相关。     

近39年长三角海岸带土地开发利用格局演变分析

长三角海岸带是全球变化与人类活动剧烈相互作用的典型区域，在沿海开发逐渐深化与政策助推背景下，该区域土地利用变化加剧，已成为经济发展与生态保护的矛盾热点区，分析海岸带土地开发利用格局演变过程对推动长三角沿海发展带具有重要意义。本文基于1980?2018年5期土地利用矢量数据，采用桑基图、年变化率、动态度及核密度分析方法，揭示了近39年来长三角海岸带土地开发利用在数量结构、空间形态、重点地类集聚及海陆梯度变化规律等方面的演变特征。结果表明:(1) 2018年长三角海岸带基底景观由耕地、林地和建设用地构成，占研究区总面积的89.86%，呈现出北耕南林、建设用地呈散团式镶嵌其中的空间格局。(2)近39年来研究区土地利用系统在数量结构和空间形态上变化各异，其中，在数量结构上整体呈现耕地持续平稳减少、建设用地持续快速增加、林地波动式微弱减少、草地和水域波动式微弱增加的发展趋势，且历经围填海开发面积累计达2 161.01 km2；在空间形态上主要呈现出建设用地斑块遍地开花并伴随局部爆炸式扩张、耕地斑块逐渐缩减且趋于破碎化、江苏和上海东部以及杭州湾沿岸围填海开发形成明显湿地景观的演变态势。(3)重点针对建设用地和湿地开展空间集聚演变特征分析，其中，建设用地扩张规模呈小而散且扩张集聚度呈持续增强趋势，形成由“单中心”趋向“多中心”空间集聚格局；滩涂资源呈现数量少、斑块小且分布散的特征，总体呈减少趋势，各时期扩展热点区及缩减热点区地处县市各异。(4)在距离海岸线20 km范围内，研究区土地利用动态度呈现明显的建设用地趋海及海洋用地趋陆的变化规律，且江苏、上海及浙江沿海地带的各地类动态度海陆梯度变化规律各异。     

Geodynamics of the deep sedimentary basin of the Caspian Sea region: paragenetic correlation of seismicity and mud volcanism

In this paper we analyze seismic regime and earthquake depth distribution and correlation of seismicity and mud volcanism in the Azerbaijan and the Caspian Sea region. For the present region we have calculated accurate source locations, seismic activity, earthquake repetition and released earthquake energy parameters. It is shown that the active tectonic processes in the region are concentrated within the thick sedimentary cover that we consider as a general source of contemporary stress and a main structural element responsible for the origin of regional earthquakes. The correlation of seismicity and mud volcanism is of paragenetic character.     

Megaearthquake of March 11, 2011, in Japan: The event magnitude and the character of the aftershock sequence

The great Japanese earthquake (GJE) of March 11, 2011, was a megaevent. The conditions under which such seismic catastrophes occurred are discussed. The regime of the aftershocks of this megaevent is compared with the data on the aftershock sequences which accompanied the Simushir earthquakes (2006 and 2007) and the Andaman earthquake (2004) and with the seismicity behavior in the generalized vicinity of a strong earthquake. The aftershock sequences of the abovementioned strong earthquakes are shown to represent the sets of trend changes in the postshock activity and specific outbursts of seismic activity. Activity outbursts are characterized not only by an increase in the number and energy of events, but also by a decrease in the recurrence plot slope (b value) and the average earthquake depth. Some such outbursts correspond to the occurrence of strong repeated shocks. A possible mechanism for outbursts of seismic activity is proposed. The possibility of a stronger repeated shock in the vicinity of the megaearthquake of March 11, 2011, is discussed.     

Ring-Shaped Seismicity Structures in the Areas of Sarez and Nurek Water Reservoirs (Tajikistan): Lithosphere Adaptation to Additional Loading

Seismicity characteristics in the areas of Sarez Lake and the Nurek water reservoir are studied. Ring-shaped seismicity structures in two depth ranges (0–33 and 34–70 km) formed prior to the Pamir earthquake of December 7, 2015 (M _w = 7.2). Seismicity rings cross each other near the Usoi Dam, which formed after the strong earthquake in 1911 and led to the formation of Sarez Lake, and near the epicenter of the Pamir earthquake. In addition, three out of the four strongest events (М ≥ 6.0) recorded in the Pamir region at depths of more than 70 km since 1950 have occurred near Sarez Lake. An aggregate of the data allows us to conclude that the Pamir earthquake, despite its very large energy, refers to events related to induced seismicity. Ring-shaped seismicity structures in two depth ranges also formed in the Nurek water reservoir area. It is supposed that the formation of ring-shaped structures is related to the self-organization processes of a geological system, which result in the ascent of deep-seated fluids. In this respect, the lithosphere is gradually adapting to the additional load related to the filling of the water reservoir. The difference between Nurek Dam (and many other hydroelectric power stations as well) and Usoi Dam is the permanent vibration in the former case due to water falling from a height of more than 200 m. Such an effect can lead to gradual stress dissipation, resulting in the occurrence of much weaker events when compared to the Pamir earthquake of December 7, 2015, in the areas of artificial water reservoirs.     

Possible triggering relationship of six M_w>6 earthquakes in 2018–2019 at Philippine archipelago

Philippine archipelago(PA) has strong background seismicity, but there is no systematic study of earthquake triggering in this region. There are six earthquakes(M_w 6) occurred between 2018/12/29 and 2019/09/29 in PA,which provides an excellent opportunity to investigate the triggering relationship among these events. We calculate the static Coulomb stress changes of the first five events, and find that the local seismicity after the2018/12/29 M_w 7.0 earthquake is mostly associated with positive Coulomb stress changes, including the2019/05/31 M_w 6.1 event, suggesting a possible triggering relationship. However, we cannot rule out the dynamic triggering mechanism, due to increased microseismicity in both positive and negative stress change regions, and an incomplete local catalog, especially right after the first M_w 7.0 mainshock. The dynamic stresses from these M_w 6 events are large enough(from 5 kPa to 3 532 kPa) to trigger subsequent events, but a lack of seismicity and waveform evidence does not support delayed dynamic triggering among these events, even the shortest time interval is less than 24 hours. In the past 45 years, the released seismic energy shows certain peaks every 5–10 years. However, earthquakes with M_w 6.0 were relatively infrequent between 2004 and 2018 at PA. Hence, it is possible that several regions are relatively late in their earthquake cycles, which would enhance their susceptibility of being triggered by earthquakes at nearby and regional distances.     

Relationship between the seismicity and geologic structure of the Blanco Transform Fault Zone

Morphologic studies of an oceanic transform, the Blanco Transform Fault Zone (BTFZ), have shown it to consist of a series of extensional basins that offset the major strike-slip faults. The largest of the extensional basins, the Cascadia Depression, effectively divides the transform into a northwest segment, composed of several relatively short strike-slip faults, and a southeast segment dominated by fewer, longer faults. The regional seismicity distribution (m _b 4.0) and frequency-magnitude relationships (b-values) of the BTFZ show that the largest magnitude events are located on the southeast segment. Furthermore, estimates of the cumulative seismic moment release and seismic moment release rate along the southeast segment are significantly greater than that of the northwest segment. These observations suggest that slip along the southeast segment is accommodated by a greater number of large magnitude earthquakes. Comparison of the seismic moment rate, derived from empirical estimates, with the seismic moment rate determined from plate motion constraints suggests a difference in the seismic coupling strength between the segments. This difference in coupling may partially explain the disparity in earthquake size distribution. However, the results appear to confirm the relation between earthquake size and fault length, observed along continental strike-slip faults, for this oceanic transform.     

Distinguishing features of the seismicity in South Kamchatka in the 20th century with regard to the Avacha Bay seismic gap

The distinguishing features of the seismicity throughout South Kamchatka and within the Avacha Bay seismic gap in the 20th century are considered. The evolution of the evaluation of the magnitudes of the strongest earthquakes for this gap from M = 7.25–7.5 in 1965–1980 to 7.75–8.0 after 1980 is discussed. On the basis of the method for studying the characteristic features of the seismicity within a seismic gap developed for the Central Kuriles, the seismicity of South Kamchatka is considered for depths of 0–100, 101–200, and more than 200 km according to the data from the New Catalog [6] for the period from 1901 to 1974 (M ≥ 6.1), the Special Catalog for North Eurasia [3] for the period from 1975 to 1993 (M ≥ 4.5), and additional data from the Kamchatka stations for the period from 1994 to 1997. It was found that the seismic process within the region of South Kamchatka is typical of the island arcs; i.e, most of the earthquakes considered and the maximum of the seismic energy released are concentrated in the lithosphere at depths of 0–100 km. The seismological situation in the zone of Avacha Bay is found to be similar to that within the second kind of the seismic gap during the precursory seismic quiescence of the 1978 Oaxac earthquake with M = 7.8 in Central Mexico. This allows us to consider the zone of Avacha Bay as a possible seismic gap of the second kind. Such a result can be considered as a suggestion of the possibility of the occurrence in Avacha Bay of an earthquake with M ～ 8 according to the long-term forecast for the region of the Kuriles and Kamchatka made by S.A. Fedotov.     

Characterization of earthquake sources in the Gulf of Alaska

Abstract

The characterization of earthquake sources in the Gulf of Alaska and the relative significance of earthquake sources for establishing seismic design inputs at a typical site for engineering purposes are discussed. Earthquake sources in the complex tectonic environment can be divided into two groups: (a) a subduction zone that underlies the entire region (maximum magnitude M = 8.5); and (b) individual thrust and strike‐slip faults associated with the plate motions (maximum magnitude M = 6 to 7.5). The sources of either group and individual earthquake events can be represented as planar surfaces for consistency with the physical process and a mathematically tractable computational scheme.

Although the area is very active seismically, the degree of activity of individual sources varies significantly. Therefore, even for sources with the same maximum earthquakes, different magnitudes may apply for a selected design return period. The area is considered to be a “seismic gap.”; No great earthquakes have occurred in nearly 80 years. Estimates based on a temporally varying seismic function such as the semi‐Markov model indicate that the probability of occurrence of a great earthquake in the near future is significantly higher than the average probability inferred from a statistical analysis of historical seismicity data of the entire region.

Separate attenuation relationships should be used for calculating ground motions due to earthquakes on the dipping subduction zone in the northern portion of the gulf. The dominant earthquake source for almost the entire Gulf of Alaska region is the subduction zone that contributes over 80 percent of the seismic exposure at a typical site. The dominant magnitude range is M_s = 6.5 to 7.5. “Gap filling”; earthquakes (M_s = 7.5 to 8.25) contribute a little over a third of the seismic exposure at a typical site. Deterministic assessments of ground motion values using the maximum earthquake on the subduction zone at the closest distance yield values significantly higher than those calculated for even 500‐year return periods. Estimated 100‐year return period accelerations in the area range from 180 to 340 cm/sec².     

Synchronous seasonal changes in the hydrological regime and weak earthquake activity in the Garm region

The distinctive annual periodicity in the week earthquake activity in the Garm region and its possible origin were described in the author’s previous papers. In this paper, an attempt is made to relate the annual earthquake periodicity to such a phenomenon as hydroseismicity. Within the framework of the study, seasonal variations in seismicity, snow height, and the water level of the Surkhob River are compared. As a result, good coincidence of the form of spring changes in snow height and seismicity has been revealed. It is important that according to averaged data, seismicity follows changes in snow height with some lag. However, a few cases in certain years have been found when the number of earthquakes began decreasing simultaneously or even a little before snow melt. It was also discovered that annual changes in the river water level and seismicity occur in opposite phase. Possible approaches to interpreting the results are discussed.     

Deposition processes from echo-character mapping along the western Algerian margin (Oran–Tenes), Western Mediterranean

The westernmost Algerian margin (south Algero-Provençal basin) depicts a few offshore active faults, moderate to rare seismicity, and generally very steep slopes (>16°). We classified and mapped 12 echo types according to their sub-bottom acoustic facies observed on this margin on 2–5.2 kHz Chirp echo-sounder data (MARADJA 2003 cruise). The echo-character maps are interpreted in terms of sedimentary processes: the B1 echo type (parallel to subparallel high- to low-amplitude sub-bottom reflections), mainly in the deep basin, corresponds to hemipelagic sedimentation; R1 (prolonged single echo with no sub-bottoms) and R2 (small irregular overlapping hyperbolae) echo types, generally near or in canyon systems, are associated with turbidity currents or more rarely to contour currents or mass-transport deposits such as slumps, slides and debris flows; the transparent echo types (T1–T5) and R3 (chaotic lens of low-amplitude reflections on top of higher amplitude), often located at the foot of the slope or canyons walls, typically indicate mass-transport deposits (like slides) or turbidites. Large zones that display a large variety of echo types are evidenced in the study area and are generally associated with turbidity currents, but could also be associated with bottom currents. It appears that active tectonics plays a significant role in this part of the margin which presents a few active faults offshore but also a strong and relatively frequent seismicity onland. The general pattern of the distribution of mass-transport deposits is particular – i.e. many but small slides all along the margin – and suggests a probable triggering by recurrent earthquake shakings. However, active tectonics is not the only factor influencing the deposition pattern, as some zones seem characterized by predominant strong turbidity currents transporting sediments far away from the foot of the margin, whereas others depict retrogressive erosion features on the slope, i.e. small slides scarps in gullies rather than transport by turbidity currents. In particular, the rivers sediment discharge fluxes and the geomorphologic characteristics of the margin seem to be very important factors too.     

地震作用对南海南沙群岛渚碧礁的影响研究

评估珊瑚礁的稳定性具有十分重要的意义。近年来,在中国南海海域开展了越来越多的工程建设项目。珊瑚礁是造礁石珊瑚群体死亡后其残骸经过漫长的地质作用而形成的岩土体,是一种特殊的海洋岩土介质。晚渐新世后,生长在碳酸盐台地上的珊瑚礁进入繁盛期,礁体内部可划分为5至6个主要的沉积相。同时,珊瑚礁已被认为是近代地震发生时间的记录器。文章结合南沙群岛的珊瑚礁体工程地质分带和岩体结构特征,设计了岛礁模型,研究地震对珊瑚礁的影响。在研究中,通过利用岩土工程的模拟仿真软件GeoStudio,使用Newmark滑块分析法,模拟了6种不同强度的地震作用下珊瑚礁体的受力状态和变形情况,采用极限平衡条分法计算了安全系数,并测算出可能的危险滑移面位置及滑移规模。通过模拟计算结果,得到地震作用对珊瑚礁的影响有：（1）珊瑚礁在自重状态下具有良好的稳定性;（2）地震发生后,安全系数小于1（FS<1）可能导致斜坡失稳并发生滑塌;（3）随着地震强度的增加,安全系数是降低的,且经一段时间后,安全系数围绕某特定值波动;（4）在地震作用下,作为珊瑚礁体浅层新发育的部分,更小的滑坡部位会更易发生坍塌。综上,利用岩土工程的方法对海洋中珊瑚礁体的稳定性进行评价是可行的,能够为今后岛礁工程设计的提供参考。