基于改进神经网络的板桩结构可靠性分析

板桩码头是港口工程的一种常用结构,计算其可靠度指标对港口工程的安全意义重大。由于板桩结构的设计计算复杂,功能函数表达难度较大。Monte-Carlo法是解决此类问题的一种方法,但需要大量的抽样与数值计算,很不经济。人工神经网络模型可以用来逼近功能函数,在此基础上可平行地建立一次二阶矩法进行可靠度分析。但传统的BP神经网络模型有着容易陷入局部极小及预测精度低等问题。针对上述问题,引入Adaboost算法来改进BP神经网络模型,提出一种基于Adaboost的BP神经网络法来计算板桩结构的可靠度。以天津某板桩码头为例,采用新方法对板桩结构进行可靠度分析,并将计算结果与传统BP神经网络法及Monte Carlo法进行比较。结果表明:新方法的计算精度高于传统BP神经网络法,且计算结果与Monte Carlo法接近。     

边坡整体稳定的可靠性分析方法

边坡整体滑动稳定性的可靠性分析是建立在土体具有的抗力大于荷载效应的概率基础上进行设计和校验的。在条分法的基础上推导出了进行边坡稳定可靠性分析的统一极限状态方程 ,将土的容重γ、内摩擦角φ、粘聚力 c作为随机变量 ,当其为非正态分布时 ,进行当量正态化 ,考虑变量相关的情况 ,用简化相关法对随机变量进行统计分析 ,并以 Bishop圆弧滑动法为例 ,用 JC法求解边坡的可靠性指标及失效概率 ,给出计算安全系数和可靠性指标的算法程序。并就影响可靠性指标的因素如抗剪强度指标、变量分布形式、土性参数的变异性等进行了讨论。     

珊瑚砂地质条件下钢板桩结构可靠性分析

在热带地区开展水运工程设计施工项目，经常会遇到珊瑚砂地质，其力学特性较为特别，强度低、易碎、黏性低，力学指标变异性较大，国内现有设计规范对珊瑚砂地质条件特殊性考虑不足，设计人员在相关设计参数选取时经常忽略采用可靠度理论进行结构安全复核。以马尔代夫机场扩建项目为案例，运用可靠度理论分析了珊瑚砂力学指标的高变异性对钢板桩结构稳定可靠度的影响。根据分析，在珊瑚砂地质条件下，按照《码头结构设计规范》（JTS167-2018）进行稳定性计算，得出的结果偏于危险，应引起结构设计人员的重视。在进行结构设计时，应同时按照《港口工程结构可靠性设计统一标准》（GB50158-2010）复核板桩结构可靠度。同时，珊瑚砂较小的黏性，在进行结构可靠度计算时可以忽略。     

基于可靠性的海洋立管疲劳安全系数研究

综合考虑了立管疲劳安全系数取值的相关因素——立管的安全等级、设计寿命、检验周期、载荷和损伤计算方法等的不确定性,提出了基于可靠度的疲劳安全系数确定方法,筛选了用于计算波致疲劳和VIV(涡激振动)疲劳的随机变量,给出了立管波致疲劳与VIV疲劳安全系数的计算流程,并以某SCR(钢悬链线立管)为例进行了安全系数计算。结果表明,该方法的计算结果优于传统的安全系数确定方法,尤其适合于特殊工程方案或新颖设计的立管疲劳校核。     

多目标可变模糊评价模型在海水水质评价中的应用

海水环境质量评价是一种多要素、多因子的评价,海水环境质量的分级标准、海水污染程度等都是一些模糊概念.目前已有的海水水质评价模型中都或多或少存在一些不足,基于可变模糊理论,建立基于可变模糊的海水水质评价模型,并将该方法应用于胶州湾海水水质综合评价中.实践表明,该模型方法计算简单,能够比较合理地确定样本指标对各级指标标准区间的相对隶属度、相对隶属函数,并且能够通过变化模型及其参数(a 和 p 参数变化,变化为4个模型,包括1个线性,3个非线性),将稳定结果作为海水水质综合评价的结果,合理地确定出样本的评价等级,为海洋环境领域的多目标综合评价与决策提供了一种新的思路与方法.     

海底斜坡稳定性研究进展及分析

海底斜坡稳定性受风暴潮、海底地震等有许多不确定因素影响,易发生失稳破坏,产生较大的海洋地质灾害问题.简要介绍了国内外海底斜坡稳定性研究进展;利用GEO-SLOPE滑坡分析软件进行海底边坡稳定性计算,建立研究区斜坡有限元模型、滑移模式,确定模型计算的基础资料如海底地形参数、地层结构参数、土体强度参数等指标,模拟大风浪和地震力作用等极端条件下斜坡稳定性可靠度计算和数值分析,确定海底斜坡失稳空间特征和斜坡失稳概率,对促进今后的海底斜坡稳定性分析方法研究将会起到一定的指导作用.     

波致海底缓倾角无限坡滑动稳定性计算分析探讨

波浪作用下海底无限坡滑动稳定性计算的极限平衡法中,忽略了坡体水平向应力状态的影响,为此,针对波浪作用下海底缓倾角无限边坡的特点,提出直接基于滑动面处土体应力状态的滑动稳定性计算方法(简称应力状态法),并分析了其适用范围。对具体算例的分析表明,应力状态法计算得出的安全系数大于极限平衡法的安全系数,且随着滑动面深度的增加、土体泊松比以及边坡坡角的增大,两种计算方法得出的安全系数的差异会逐渐增大;对于波浪作用下的海底缓倾角无限边坡,在失稳时极可能沿具有一定厚度的滑动带而不是单一的滑动面而滑动,且波致最大剪应力所在的深度,常常不是斜坡体最易失稳滑移的深度。     

径向基函数神经网络在计算天然气水合物饱和度中的应用研究

天然气水合物饱和度的计算通常采用阿尔奇公式、双水模型、Wood 方程等方法,这些方法均基于孔隙度的求取,并需要配合岩心分析来获得公式中的有关参数,存在误差传递导致结果不正确的问题.由于天然气水合物是以固态形式赋存于地层当中,因此研究适用于含天然气水合物储层的评价模型也是解决准确评价天然气水合物储层需考虑的因素.针对沿用油气测井评价方法计算天然气水合物的孔隙度和饱和度中存在的问题,采用径向基函数作为人工神经网络,计算了我国首次采获水合物样品的神狐海域某井天然气水合物的饱和度,以其中一口井的分析数据为样本训练并建立径向基函数神经网络,有效地求出了另一口井的天然气水合物饱和度,其结果与现场孔隙水分析的饱和度基本吻合.避开了天然气水合物饱和度的模型建立及参数求取难题.     

利用地下水水位资料推求水文地质参数

依据模糊集合理论,提出了反求水文地质参数的一种新方法,即用模糊模式识别评价计算水位与观测水位的拟合程度,依模糊ISODATA聚类法的原理建立目标函数,以相应的聚类中心作为要求的水文地质参数。     

考虑软土蠕变对强度影响的高桩码头岸坡时变可靠度分析

考虑软土蠕变导致的土体抗剪强度的衰减效应,建立了软土长期强度模型,用以量化由于土体蠕变导致的土体抗剪强度参数随时间的变化规律。将时变可靠度理论结合有限元强度折减法,提出了考虑软土蠕变对强度影响的高桩码头岸坡时变可靠度算法。采用拉丁超立方抽样方法来改进传统蒙特卡罗法的随机抽样过程,提高计算效率。针对某一岸坡实例,将采用本文算法计算得到的可靠度结果与其他算法评估的结果进行对比分析,验证本文算法的可靠性。最后以我国沿海某高桩码头岸坡为例,基于本文算法评估了该码头岸坡的时变可靠度,分析了岸坡稳定性的时变规律。文中提出的时变可靠度分析方法不仅可以为在役高桩码头岸坡的安全评估提供强有力的技术支撑,同时也能为一些新建工程项目提供一定的参考应用价值。     

Estimation of the Effect of Lateral Flow on Piled Bridge Abutments in Soft Ground Considering Piled Slabs as a Countermeasure of the Abutments

The effectiveness of a simple method to estimate the lateral movement of piled bridge abutments due to lateral flow from the safety factor (Fs) of slope stability analysis was studied. This was accomplished through the construction and measurement of actual piled bridge abutments and its backfill, with and without piled slabs as a countermeasure. To do this, a computer program SLOPILE (VER 3.0) considering the lateral earth pressure acting on a row of piled bridge abutment was developed. SLOPILE (VER 3.0) can calculate the slope stability for both planar failure surfaces in infinite slopes and arc failure surfaces based on Fellenius or Bishop simplified methods. SLOPILE (VER 3.0) was utilized to design the piled bridge abutment reinforced by a piled slab at a real site. The piled slab can effectively prevent the lateral flow of soft ground and satisfy not only the safety factor of a slope but also the allowable bearing capacity of piles. To verify the design method, an instrumentation system was adapted. The instrumentation results from a case study clearly showed that the piled slab effectively resisted the lateral movement of a bridge abutment due to placement of backfill. Also, the surcharge loads due to backfill were supported by the piled slab and transmitted to the bedrock through the piled slab.     

An Artificial Neural Network-Based Response Surface Method for Reliability Analyses of c-? Slopes with Spatially Variable Soil

This paper presents an artificial neural network (ANN)-based response surface method that can be used to predict the failure probability of c-? slopes with spatially variable soil. In this method, the Latin hypercube sampling technique is adopted to generate input datasets for establishing an ANN model; the random finite element method is then utilized to calculate the corresponding output datasets considering the spatial variability of soil properties; and finally, an ANN model is trained to construct the response surface of failure probability and obtain an approximate function that incorporates the relevant variables. The results of the illustrated example indicate that the proposed method provides credible and accurate estimations of failure probability. As a result, the obtained approximate function can be used as an alternative to the specific analysis process in c-? slope reliability analyses.     

Fuzzy Probabilistic Analysis of Seismic Stability of Coastal Embankment

The stability of slope is affected by a number of factors, some of which have not only random property but also fuzzy characteristic. Therefore, the analysis of slope stability is really an uncertain problem. The customary safety factor does not in reality reflect stability scientifically, quantitatively and practically. In order to obtain more practical results, the slope stability is treated as a fuzzy random event for the evaluation of its fuzzy probability. Finally, the seismic stability of an existing coastal embankment is analyzed by means of the suggested fuzzy probabilistic method. It may be seen that the results of analysis can more fully represent the numerical assessment of the degree of slope seismic stability.     

Susceptibility assessment of regional submarine landslides triggered by seismic actions

Submarine landslide and even its evolution to high-speed sliding masses can seriously threaten the safety of ocean engineering. Earthquakes are the most frequent trigger factors for landslides, and thus, seismic instability evaluation of submarine slopes has become a hot topic. However, the mechanism of submarine slope failures triggered by earthquakes is enormously complex. Although certain satisfactory results have been achieved in specific slopes, submarine landslides are still difficult to monitor and control, meaning that prevention-oriented research remains the mainstream. Regional slide predictive analyses of vast submarine slopes should be emphasized, but relevant research is notably rare. In this paper, a regional assessment methodology for submarine slope instabilities under seismic loads is proposed, and susceptibility mapping of landslides is established. First, considering the quasi-static bidirectional seismic action and the marine soil strength-weakening effect, an infinite slope sliding mode is used to establish the stability evaluation formula for a multiple soil-layer slope. Second, according to water depth data and GIS techniques, slope gradients are investigated, and the safety factors of submarine slopes located at specific stations are acquired. Furthermore, discrete stations are taken as sample points, and susceptibility mapping of submarine landslides is achieved using the inverse distance weighted and GIS techniques. Finally, regional seismic instability assessments of submarine slopes are conducted in the northeastern South China Sea, and various factors that influence submarine landslides are briefly discussed. This study offers an important basis for the development of marine resources and the risk assessments in ocean engineering.     

System Reliability Analysis of Offshore Strctures and Component Safety Rank Assessment

Offshore structures will encounter serious environmental load,so it is important to study thestructural system reliability and to evaluate the structural component safety rank.In this paper,thebracnch-and-bound method is adopted to search the main failure path,and the Ditlevsen bound method isused to calculate the system failure probability.The structure is then assessed by the fuzzy comprehensiveassessment method,which evaluates the structural component safety rank.The ultimate equation of the tu-bular cross-section is analyzed on the basis of ultimate stregnth analysis.The influence of effectcoefficients on the structural system failure probability is investigated,and basic results are obtained.Ageneral program for spatial frame structures by means of the above method is developed,and verified bythe numerical examples.     

Submarine slope stability analysis during natural gas hydrate dissociation

ABSTRACT

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the stability of submarine slope during the natural gas hydrate dissociation. A model is deduced to calculate the excess pore fluid pressure. In addition, a new method is proposed to define and calculate the factor of safety (FoS) of the submarine slope. Case study is also performed, results of which show that dissociation of hydrates would decrease the stability of submarine slope. If the cohesion of the hydrate-bearing sediments is small, the submarine slope would become unstable because of the shear failure. If the cohesion of the hydrate-bearing sediments is large enough, the tensile failure would happen in the hydrate-bearing sediments and the excess pore pressure may explode the submarine slope. Under the drained condition, the submarine slope may remain stable because the buildup of excess pore fluid pressure could not take place. Moreover, FoS would be underestimated by the assumption that natural gas hydrates dissociate in the horizontally confined space, but would be overestimated by only taking into account of the base of the natural gas hydrate-bearing sediments. The compressibility factor of natural gas should also be considered because treating natural gas as ideal gas would underestimate the stability of submarine slope.     

Reliability analysis of submarine slope considering the spatial variability of the sediment strength using random fields

The properties of marine sediments vary spatially, and the undrained shear strength of marine clay increases linearly with depth because of depositional processes and the effective overburden pressure. To evaluate the stability of submarine slope considering the spatial variability of soil strength, the random field discretized by the Karhunen-Loève expansion is combined with the limit equilibrium method to conduct reliability analysis. For simplicity, our physical model does not include many complexities such as the effects of excess pore water pressure on the stability of submarine slopes. Stability estimates of the infinite slope model, under both static and seismic loading, are made with three types of one-dimensional stationary or non-stationary random fields. The two-dimensional slope model is also analyzed, where the shear strength varies with the positions of the strips because of the discrete random-field function for the soil material. In submarine slope reliability analysis, the non-stationary random field of the linearly increasing soil strength is used, instead of the commonly used stationary one. To obtain the failure probability through Monte Carlo simulations, a novel response surface method based on Gaussian process regression is introduced to build the surrogate model. The computational efficiency is significantly increased, because there is a considerable reduction of calls of the deterministic analysis. Therefore, the proposed method makes the prediction of submarine landslides which are usually rare events with very small probabilities more efficient.     

门架式水力插板桩的抗滑移稳定性分析

门架式水力插板桩是1种新型的空间挡土结构,其抗滑移稳定性计算目前尚无成熟方法.文中给出了直角坐标系下门架式水力插板桩抗滑移稳定性计算的简化Bishop积分方法和安全系数表达式,并编制了安全系数计算程序.通过1个算例,将此方法的计算结果与GEO-Slope有限元软件的计算结果进行了比较,表明了该方法是可行的.探讨了土体内摩擦角、粘聚力、桩入土深度和双排桩间距对结构稳定性的影响,得出了当土体的内摩擦角和粘聚力较小时,应通过增加桩的入土深度来提高门架式水力插板桩的抗滑移稳定性等一些有意义的结论.