基于熵权TOPSIS模型的山东省海洋经济系统脆弱性评价与障碍度分析

在建设海洋强国的背景下,山东省的海洋经济系统脆弱性的研究对于海洋经济的可持续发展具有重要意义。文章从应对能力、敏感性、胁迫性和弹性这4个方面构建了海洋经济系统脆弱性的指标体系,并基于熵权法求出指标权重结合TOPSIS模型和对2007—2019年的山东省海洋经济系统脆弱性进行了分析,并结合障碍度模型,从指标层详细研究了影响海洋经济系统脆弱性的前5个障碍影响因子。研究发现：首先,山东省海洋经济系统脆弱性在2007—2014年经历了较为明显的波动,且从2014年以来,山东省海洋经济的系统脆弱性程度呈现下降趋势;其次,整体上看,敏感性呈现逐步上升的趋势,应对能力和胁迫性在经历最初的大起大落后,分别从2009年和2013年开始呈现攀升的势头,而弹性除了2013年的极端高值外,其余年份呈现较为稳定的状态;最后,通过对各年度准则层障碍度分析发现,应对能力(R)和敏感性(S)起主要影响作用;而通过指标层的障碍度分析发现,工业废水排放总量(万t)、入境旅游外汇收入(万美元)、全社会固定资产投资(亿元)、旅客吞吐量(万人次)、海洋产业结构多样化指数、人均城市道路面积(m²)、海洋第三...     

广东沿海经济带海洋资源-环境-经济系统承载力时空耦合研究

推动海洋资源-环境-经济系统协调联动是提升沿海地区海洋承载力的必要途径,也是建设海洋强国的重要议题。基于海洋资源-环境-经济系统承载力评价指标体系,运用极差非零标准化、熵值法、状态空间模型以及耦合协调度函数模型,对2008—2018年广东沿海经济带海洋资源-环境-经济系统承载力时空耦合特征进行比较分析。结果表明：广东沿海经济带海洋资源-环境-经济系统综合承载力指数在时序上呈波动下降态势。其中,海洋经济系统承载力水平较高且主导效应明显,相反,海洋资源系统、环境系统承载力水平相对较低,长期处于满载状态。各地市承载力水平空间差异较大,粤西沿海地区的湛江、阳江综合承载力水平最高,粤东沿海地区的潮州、揭阳综合承载力水平最低。从耦合协调度时序变化来看,耦合度、协调度呈波动上升态势,表明海洋资源-环境-经济系统内部相互作用及各子系统间发展的同步性有所强化;耦合协调类型空间差异显著,以高耦合、高协调类型为主,耦合协调度较高的区域主要集中在粤西沿海的阳江、湛江等地区,东莞、潮州等地区为低值区。     

沿海地区风暴潮灾害的脆弱性组合评价及原因探析

以典型海洋灾害风暴潮为研究对象,以国家海洋局统计公报数据、国家统计局和各省市统计数据为数据源,将粗糙集理论(RST)与组合赋权策略(CWM)结合建立了基于RST-CWM的风暴潮灾害脆弱性组合评价模型。利用粗糙集的知识简约属性、投影寻踪组合赋权思想进行沿海各省市地区海洋风暴潮灾害脆弱性的综合评价。测算结果表明:沿海地区基于RST-CWM模型的风暴潮灾害脆弱性呈现出一定的空间差异性,但研究区各省市海洋风暴潮灾害脆弱性与地理位置分布没有必然的联系,说明在沿海地区开展海洋防灾减灾工作,若只注重地理区划并不一定能改善当地风暴潮脆弱程度。研究区各省市海洋灾害脆弱程度大小排序为:山东、天津、福建、广东、广西、辽宁、江苏、浙江、海南、河北、上海,同时,各省市的脆弱性要素即暴露性、敏感性及适应性构成有所差异,说明完备海洋风暴潮防灾减灾机制的驱动力是多样的,风暴潮防治应综合考虑灾害本身和人为因素。     

海平面上升背景下中国沿海台风风暴潮脆弱性分析

沿海地区既是我国人口、经济和社会发展的重要区域,又是自然灾害易发和频发区域。基于中国沿海1989—2008年台风风暴潮增水数据、航天飞机雷达地形测绘任务3秒数字高程模型(SRTM3 DEM)数据、2009年县级行政区数据、2005年100m土地利用栅格数据、2003年平方公里人口和国内生产总值(GDP)数据,进行了中国沿海海平面上升背景下的中国东部沿海台风风暴潮脆弱性分析。采用线性回归法得到海平面上升值,采用回归分析法得到风暴潮回归周期和相应潮高,采用高程面积法得到风暴潮土地利用淹没图,采用地统计法得到各高程内被淹县市土地利用面积、被淹人口和GDP。研究结果表明,珠江三角洲地区、长江三角洲和长江以北的江苏北部沿海地区、莱州湾及黄河三角洲和渤海湾与辽东湾地区是我国沿海三大主要台风风暴潮脆弱区,也是今后台风风暴潮重点预防地区;农田、水域与建设用地是沿海地区最易遭受风暴潮增水淹没的3种土地利用类型。     

百年一遇潮位淹没影响下山东沿海地区经济脆弱性评价

经济发达的山东沿海局部地区地势低平,海堤多为五十年一遇标准,一旦发生百年一遇风暴潮淹没事件,将会带来巨大的经济损失。因此,对山东沿海地区经济脆弱性进行评价,有助于减灾防灾措施的实施。本文借助DEM、遥感数据和GIS评价百年一遇潮位淹没影响下山东沿海地区经济脆弱性。研究结果如下:百年一遇潮位淹没影响范围主要集中在潍坊、东营和滨州;龙口、福山、芝罘、莱山、威海四市、临胶州湾各区与日照沿海的东港区和岚山区GDP密度较高,滨州、东营、潍坊各市、区,莱州、招远、蓬莱、牟平、海阳、莱阳、即墨与平度的GDP密度较低;淹没深度较大地区集中在潍坊,东营部分地区,胶州湾及日照沿海地区;结果表明:(1)经济脆弱性极高地区分布在寒亭区,城阳区;经济脆弱性很高地区为黄岛区;经济脆弱性为高的地区有东港区、莱州市、寿光市、昌邑县、广饶县与东营区等地;(2)脆弱性成因:寒亭区、寿光市、昌邑县、广饶县、东营区、莱州市、县是淹没面积大,淹没深度大;黄岛区、东港区及城阳是GDP密度大,淹没深度大;(3)预防风暴潮灾害可通过加强预警预报与应急预案建设,调整经济分布,加强柽柳湿地保护与积极扩大柽柳湿地范围等方法。     

象山港海岸带景观生态风险演变研究

海岸带景观是沿海地区社会经济可持续发展的基础,研究人类活动影响下的海岸带景观生态风险演变对海岸带景观规划与景观资源的合理开发具有重要意义。本文基于1990—2010年间3期的Landsat TM/ETM+遥感数据源,结合野外实地调查,研究了象山港海岸带景观生态风险及其变化趋势。结果表明: (1)20 a间,象山港海岸带景观格局发生显著变化,耕地、海域和林地等景观类型面积呈下降趋势,而建设用地、未利用地和养殖用地不断增加;(2)1990年以来,象山港海岸带景观生态风险等级有不断增高趋势,部分低、较低等级生态风险区演变为中等级以及较高等级;(3)从不同等级生态风险区的空间分布上看,1990年以来海岸带景观低和较低等级生态风险区空间分布在沿海地区减少,而中等、较高和高生态风险区在沿海地区不断形成并向陆侧扩张。从演化速率上看,近10 a的较高和高生态风险区面积增加速率较前10 a显著加快。     

滨海旅游业经济韧性测度与空间特征分析——基于沿海11个省（自治区、直辖市）的数据

滨海旅游业经济韧性对促进沿海地区旅游经济高质量发展、增强旅游业可持续发展能力具有重要意义。文章从抵御力、恢复力、重构力、更新力维度构建综合评价指标体系,采用熵值-TOPSIS模型对2010—2019年滨海旅游业经济韧性进行评价,在评价基础上采用自然断裂点分级法将滨海旅游业韧性划分为5个等级,刻画了滨海旅游业经济韧性的空间特征。研究结果表明：(1)2010—2019年我国滨海旅游业韧性水平呈明显上升趋势,但还存在较大提升空间;(2)旅游业整体经济韧性较高,并不意味着该地区旅游业每个维度的韧性都高;(3)抵御力和恢复力是提升滨海旅游业经济韧性的关键,旅游基础设施完善程度、旅游地创利水平、旅游者规模、旅游资源丰富度越来越成为影响滨海旅游业经济韧性水平的因素;(4)从空间格局看,我国滨海旅游业经济韧性水平存在明显的空间分异现象,各维度韧性水平也存在较大差异。     

海岛灾害及其防灾减灾策略

中国沿海地区一向是海洋灾害最严重的地带,海岛更是一个灾害频发的典型的生态脆弱带。随着海洋经济的飞速发展,海岛作为特殊的海洋资源和环境的复合区域,成为海洋开发的重要依托。为了保障我国海岛地区的经济社会可持续发展和人民的生命财产安全,海岛防灾减灾工作变得尤为重要。文章根据２０００年以来中国海洋灾害统计资料,对影响我国海岛地区的灾害特征做了类比分析,并对海岛防灾减灾存在的问题进行了系统的探讨,在此基础上提出了海岛防灾减灾策略与保障措施。     

基于遥感的台州市海啸脆弱性评估

遥感技术由于具有强大的对地观测能力,因而在灾害评估方面表现出了巨大的潜力。本文基于灾害风险评估理论,利用ASTER GDEM高程数据,NPP/VIIRS灯光数据和LANDSAT卫星影像3种遥感数据对台州市海啸脆弱性进行了评估。主要从暴露性,敏感性和恢复能力3个方面进行了研究:暴露性主要分析了离岸距离因子;敏感性除了考虑到高程、坡度和海岸形状等自然地理因子外,同时也兼顾了社会经济因子;恢复能力主要由土地利用进行分析。利用层次分析法(AHP)计算了敏感性四因子的权重值。最后将脆弱性分为高、较高、中等、较低和低5个等级。脆弱性分析结果显示,台州市沿海研究区域中,78.1%的区域属于低脆弱性,5.9%区域是稍微脆弱,5.4%属于中等脆弱,8.8%是稍高脆弱性,还有1.8%属于高脆弱性区域。脆弱性偏高的地区大多位于近岸6 km内,高程和坡度较小的区域。该脆弱性分析方法可推广到全国其他县市区域的海啸风险评估工作中,为政府海啸防灾减灾工作提供科学参考。     

中国海洋生态效率及其影响因素研究 ——基于DEA与Tobit模型的分析

提高海洋生态效率对海洋经济可持续发展具有重要意义。文章基于2010—2015年沿海地区11个省、市、自治区的面板数据,采用DEA和Tobit模型,对中国海洋生态效率进行了测度和影响因素分析。结果发现:2010—2015年,中国平均海洋生态效率为0.720,整体处于无效状态并呈现效率下降的趋势。从省际层面看,海洋生态效率较高的多为经济发达地区,海洋生态效率较低的多为欠发达地区。从区域层面看,海洋生态效率呈现出"长三角—环渤海—泛珠三角"递减的格局。在海洋生态效率影响因素中,人均收入和海洋生态效率之间存在"正U型"库兹涅茨曲线关系,RD投入、海洋保护力度对海洋生态效率产生正向影响,港口发展和区位因素对海洋生态效率产生负向影响。     

Model of the post-Cenozoic evolution of the cryolithozone of the shelf of the western part of the Laptev Sea

The analysis of the structure of the cryolithozone, facies, and thicknesses of the Quaternary sediments and the results of the physicochemical mathematical modeling of the modern shelf of the western part of the Laptev Sea support the influence of the Late Pleistocene glaciations on the heat conditions and the distribution of the permafrost in the area. A ～200-m thick glacier formed under aerial conditions from atmospheric precipitation represented the metamorphosed snow cover. According to the modeling, the long-living (from 60?50 to 10?4 ky) glacier reduced the thickness of the permafrost rocks in the reviewed shelf area for 280–360 m. The Holocene marine transgression additionally decreased the thickness from 50–140 m on the inner shelf to 220–350 m on the outer shelf. The modern submarine cryolithozone 450-0 m thick is wide-spread in the studied region from the coast to the shelf boundary (isobaths of 130–140 m), where it pinches out at a distance of ～380 km from the coast at a depth of ～250 m above the sea level.     

Investigation of the mechanism of the long-term evolution of the carbon cycle in the ecosystem of the Sevastopol bay

We analyze the components of the carbon system of the Sevastopol bay waters and the balance of main sediment-forming substances using the data of field investigations in 1998–2008. The interannual variations of total inorganic carbon and the equilibrium partial pressure of carbon dioxide in the bay water are noted. An increase in the flux of carbon dioxide into the bay and in the content of organic carbon in bottom sediments is revealed, and an explanation of this phenomenon is given. The priority accumulation of organic carbon in the sediments of the bay is established. We assess the interannual variation in the relative abundances of organic and inorganic carbon as an index of the carbon cycle stability.     

Contemporary state of the investigation of the influence of the discharge of rivers on the hydrologic structure of the Black Sea

We generalize and analyze the state of investigations of the influence of river waters on the hydrologic structure of the Black Sea. Specific features of the water, regime and hydrography of rivers flowing into the sea, data on the discharge of rivers, and intrayear and interyear variability of the discharge are presented. We discuss and analyze works studying the transformation of river waters, routes of desalinized sea waters, and their influence on the thermohaline structure and dynamic regime of the sea. Translated by Peter V. Malyshev and Dmitry V. Malyshev     

Modelling of the ecosystem of the Black-Sea shelf zone near the estuary of the Danube

We analyze the results of numerical calculations performed according to the three-dimensional interdisciplinary model of an ecological system of the Black-Sea shelf zone near the estuary of the Danube. The complete system of equations of hydrothermodynamics is solved together with transport equations of the advection-diffusion-reaction type used to describe the transformation of a substance (nitrogen) between the components of the characteristic vectors of the ecosystem: plankton, detritus, and biogenic elements (nitrates). We describe the distinctive features of the circumcontinental distribution of components obtained as a result of numerical experiments and present arguments for the conclusion that the ecosystem of the Danube estuary water area plays the role of a buffer zone between the press of the Danubian biogenic pollutions and the neighbouring areas of the shelf zone and open sea. Translated by Peter V. Malyshev and Dmitry V. Malyshev     

Relationship between the path of the Kuroshio in the south of Japan and the path of the Kuroshio Extension in the east

A relationship between paths of the Kuroshio and Kuroshio Extension (KE) is investigated, using the satellite-derived altimetry dataset of 1993–2008. When the Kuroshio takes the nearshore nonlarge meander path or typical large meander path and resultantly goes through the deeper channel (about 2500 m) of the Izu-Ogasawara Ridge, the KE path adopts a relatively stable state with the two quasi-stationary meanders. On the other hand, when the Kuroshio takes the offshore nonlarge meander path and then passes over the shallower part of the Ridge (about 1000 m), the KE path tends to be convoluted, i.e., an unstable state.     

Dynamics of the ice cover and peculiarities of the ice transportation of the sediments at the tidal flats of the Kandalaksha Gulf of the White Sea

Ten years of semistationary studies of the interaction of the ice cover and the coastal relief of the Kandalakhsa Gulf in the White Sea allowed us to reveal the peculiarities of these processes in the warm and cold years and the mechanisms of the origination of ice forms, including ice tents, which govern the character of the tidal flats. Three dynamic fast ice zones are distinguished by their geomorphological location, morphology, and ice dynamics. The dependence of the mechanisms and volumes of the enrichment of the fast ice in the sediments on the coastal zone??s relief was established. At the coast of the Kindo Peninsula (Velikaya Salma Strait), the ice mostly contains fine-sandy sediments. Coarser sediments, including boulders, are occasional and frozen into the ice at the contact of the fast ice and the bottom. At the expense of the ice??s spreading by 4?C6 times in the warm years and 2?C4 times in the cold years, several thousand tons of sediments mostly from the tidal flat??s surface (100?C700 m³ from 1 km of coast in the wide tidal flats and <50 m³ on the steep coasts) are delivered to the water area.     

Parameters of the sediments of the deep-water basin of the Black Sea

The methodology and the first results of the computations of the volumes, masses, and growth rates of the sedimentary body of the buried Black Sea basin are presented. Their temporal evolution reflects the regional paleogeodynamics, in particular, the reorientation of the vector of the relative movement of the Arabian and Eurasian lithospheric plates and the related intensification of their collision in the late Miocene-Pliocene.     

Variability of the nutrient runoff of the rivers of the Arctic Basin

The spatiotemporal variability of the hydrochemical composition of the riverine runoff in nearmouth areas is presented using the example of selected rivers of the Arctic Basin. The temporal dynamics of the riverine nutrient runoff are mainly determined by the seasonal and interseasonal variations in the drainage basins. The spatial variations in the chemical composition of riverine waters in the near-mouth areas are mainly caused by the dynamics of the water flow and the river bed relief and, to a lesser degree, by biochemical processes. It is shown that the variations in the nutrient composition of the waters in near-mouth areas are comparable in magnitude to those at the river-sea geochemical barriers.     

A model of the dynamics of the ecosystem of the Sea of Azov

We use many-year archival observations of hydrologic and hydrobiologic state of the Sea of Azov for the identification of the structure of a model of its ecosystem. The ecosystem model, supplemented with expert estimates of bioresource consumption (fish reserve), contamination level, and possible ecologic fines for violation of the sea natural state, is formalized by the method of system dynamics. Hereat, the major part of influence functions is found in terms of observational data with application of self-organization algorithms. We also present the results of simulated experiments with the model of the ecosystem, which enable us to analyse scenarios of its behaviour under the influence of various external factors (wind, river discharge, water exchange with the Black Sea, etc.). Translated by Peter V. Malyshev and Dmitry V. Malyshev     

On the Relationship between the Characteristics of the Annual Variations of the Virtual Height of the Ionospheric Sporadic E Layer with the Seasonal Rearrangements of the Stratomesospheric Circulation

Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics - Analysis of the temporal variations of the virtual heights of the sporadic E layer (h?ES) determined from ionograms with increased accuracy (1...