Sensitivity of near-surface Tropical Instability Waves to submonthly wind forcing in the tropical Atlantic

This study demonstrates the sensitivity of the near-surface properties in the tropical Atlantic Ocean to the high-frequency of the winds in numerical simulations. At intra-seasonal timescales (2–50 days), two distinct period ranges dominate the variability in the upper ocean: periods between 2 and 20 days, which are essentially wind-forced and periods between 20 and 50 days, due mostly to Tropical Instability Waves (TIWs). Using a numerical model forced by different wind fields, it is shown that the characteristics of the intra-seasonal variability in the ocean surface mixed-layer are strongly dependent on the wind forcing. Submonthly winds are shown to force large variability in the upper ocean that can strikingly decrease the amplitude of the TIWs in the mixed-layer and their imprint on the horizontal distribution of sea surface temperatures. Wind products containing too much energy at submonthly periods thus prevent wind-forced simulations from reproducing a realistic surface signature of TIWs, when compared to satellite observations of sea surface temperature. In addition, submonthly wind variability may be responsible for part of the observed interannual variability of the TIW signature in the temperature. The impact of submonthly winds is strongest in the mixed-layer: beneath the mixed-layer, all simulations show similar characteristics of the TIWs.     

Forced Rossby wave in the northern South China Sea

Time-longitude diagrams of monthly anomalies of TOPEX/Poseidon sea surface height (SSH), Levitus steric height, COADS wind stress curl, as well as meridional surface wind averaged over the northern South China Sea (SCS) from 18° to 22°N, exhibit a coherent westward phase propagation, with a westward propagation speed of about 5 cm s⁻¹. The consistency between oceanic and atmospheric variables indicates that there is a forced Rossby wave in the northern SCS. The horizontal patterns of monthly SSH anomalies from observations and model sensitivity experiments show that the forced Rossby wave, originating to the northwest off Luzon Island, actually propagates west-northwestward towards the Guangdong coast because of zonal migration of the meridional surface wind. The winter Luzon Cold Eddy (LCE), which has been found from field observations, can be identified as a forced Rossby wave with a negative SSH anomaly in winter. It corresponds to strong upwelling and a negative temperature anomaly. Sensitivity experiments show that the wind forcing controls the generation of the LCE, while the Kuroshio is of minor importance.     

Meteorological forcing of long-term temperature variations of the Dutch coastal waters

Time series of observations of the sea surface temperature (SST) at 12 stations in the Dutch coastal zone are analyzed to establish whether an earlier published nearly 150 year long SST time series from the Marsdiep tidal inlet is representative for the whole Dutch coastal zone. The annual cycles (SST range and phase) as well as the long-term SST trends at decadal scales from other estuaries agree with the Marsdiep time series. An increasing SST trend since 1982 is a phenomenon of the whole Dutch coastal zone. In order to increase the understanding of the causes of the observed SST variability, a multiple linear regression model is constructed, which links locally determined seasonal meteorological and oceanographic forcing factors to the seasonal mean SST. The oceanographic forcing factor is the SST value from the preceding season, representing persistence due to thermal inertia of the sea. Season to season changes of the atmospheric circulation, connected with SST variability, are represented by seasonal mean wind components as forcing factors, e.g. the western winds in winter which bring relatively warm air masses to Western Europe. For the seasons where shortwave solar radiation is the dominant term in the local heat budget (spring and summer), the number of bright sun hours is used as forcing factor, roughly representing the effects of changing cloudiness. The annual mean SST, derived from the regression models for the four seasons, applied to 4 locations along the Dutch coast, correlates quite well, not only for the year to year variability (R = 0.88) but also for the longer-term SST trends (R = 0.95). An explicit local greenhouse effect is not required as separate forcing factor to explain the recent warming trend of Dutch coastal waters starting in the early 1980s; coincident variations in wind statistics and cloudiness are a sufficient explanation.     

An ERA40-based atmospheric forcing for global ocean circulation models

We develop, calibrate and test a dataset intended to drive global ocean hindcasts simulations of the last five decades. This dataset provides surface meteorological variables needed to estimate air-sea fluxes and is built from 6-hourly surface atmospheric state variables of ERA40. We first compare the raw fields of ERA40 to the CORE.v1 dataset of Large and Yeager (2004), used here as a reference, and discuss our choice to use daily radiative fluxes and monthly precipitation products extracted from satellite data rather than their ERA40 counterparts. Both datasets lead to excessively high global imbalances of heat and freshwater fluxes when tested with a prescribed climatological sea surface temperature. After identifying unrealistic time discontinuities (induced by changes in the nature of assimilated observations) and obvious global and regional biases in ERA40 fields (by comparison to high quality observations), we propose a set of corrections. Tropical surface air humidity is decreased from 1979 onward, representation of Arctic surface air temperature is improved using recent observations and the wind is globally increased. These corrections lead to a significant decrease of the excessive positive global imbalance of heat. Radiation and precipitation fields are then submitted to a small adjustment (in zonal mean) that yields a near-zero global imbalance of heat and freshwater. A set of 47-year-long simulations is carried out with the coarse-resolution (2° × 2°) version of the NEMO OGCM to assess the sensitivity of the model to the proposed corrections. Model results show that each of the proposed correction contributes to improve the representation of central features of the global ocean circulation.     

Anomalous hydrographic and biological conditions in the northern South China Sea during the 1997–1998 El Niño and comparisons with the equatorial Pacific

It is demonstrated that weakened wind mixing and strengthened water column stratification resulted in the anomalously low sea surface chlorophyll in the northern South China Sea during the 1997–1998 El Niño event. Remotely sensed sea surface temperature, wind and chlorophyll, which were validated by shipboard observations at the SouthEast Asian Time-series Study (SEATS) station (18°N, 116°E) in the northern South China Sea (SCS) provided the basis for this study. During the 1997–1998 winter at the SEATS station, the sea surface temperature was elevated by about 2 °C above the climatological mean, while the wind speed of the northeast monsoon was reduced from a climatological mean of 9.4 to 6.8 m/s. The concentration of surface chlorophyll-a dropped from 0.2 to 0.1 mg/m³. The monthly area-averaged integrated primary production estimated for the northern SCS area (112–119°E, 15–21°N) was reduced by about 40% of the normal winter value. Under the anomalously high sea surface temperature and weak monsoon, the mixed-layer depth would have been reduced from an average of 65 to 45 m and the nutrients in the mixed layer would have been reduced by half, according to observations at the SEATS station in more recent years. During the 1997–1998 El Niño event, the onset of warming in the northern SCS lagged behind that in the eastern equatorial Pacific by about 5 months and lingered for 11 months. This course of change resembled that of the western Pacific warm pool region. However, contrary to the northern SCS, the sea surface chlorophyll was enhanced in the warm pool region during the event, probably mainly because of the uplifted nutricline. Unlike the eastern equatorial Pacific, the dramatic recovery of biological production did not happen in the SCS in the summer of 1998. These distinctive biogeochemical responses reflect fundamental differences between the SCS and the equatorial Pacific in terms of upper water column dynamics.     

Persian Gulf response to a wintertime shamal wind event

The results from a～1 km resolution HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM), forced by 1/2° Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) atmospheric data, were used in order to study the dynamic response of the Persian Gulf to wintertime shamal forcing. Shamal winds are strong northwesterly winds that occur in the Persian Gulf area behind southeast moving cold fronts. The period from 20 November to 5 December 2004 included a well defined shamal event that lasted 4–5 days. In addition to strong winds (16 m s^?1) the winter shamal also brought cold dry air (T_a=20 °C, q_a=10 g kg^?1) which led to a net heat loss in excess of 1000 W m^?2 by increasing the latent heat flux. This resulted in SST cooling of up to 10 °C most notably in the northern and shallower shelf regions. A sensitivity experiment with a constant specific humidity of q_a=15 g kg^?1 confirmed that about 38% of net heat loss was due to the air–sea humidity differences. The time integral of SST cooling closely followed the air–sea heat loss, indicating an approximate one-dimensional vertical heat balance. It was found that the shamal induced convective vertical mixing provided a direct mechanism for the erosion of stratification and deepening of the mixed layer by 30 m. The strong wind not only strengthened the circulation in the entire Persian Gulf but also established a northwestward flowing Iranian Coastal Current (ICC, 25–30 cm s^?1) from the Strait of Hormuz to about 52°E, where it veered offshore. The strongest negative sea level of 25–40 cm was generated in the northernmost portion of the Gulf while the wind setup against the coast of the United Arab Emirates established a positive sea level of 15–30 cm. The transport through the Strait of Hormuz at 56.2°E indicated an enhanced outflow of 0.25 Sv (Sv≡10⁶ m³ s^?1) during 24 November followed by an equivalent inflow on the next day.     

Structure of potential upwelling areas in the Philippines

The three-dimensional structure of two potential mesoscale upwelling areas that are located in the external waters of the Philippine archipelago (i.e. northwest of Luzon and east of Mindanao) were constructed by analysis of historical data. A unique characteristic of both upwelling sites is that they can be identified by their anomalously cold subsurface temperatures rather than sea surface temperature distributions. As such, they cannot be observed in sea surface temperature fields derived by satellite imagery. The data used in the analysis were obtained from the National Oceanographic Data Center hydrographic database. Objective analysis was performed to produce monthly temperature fields at several standard depths within the upper 500 m of the region 0–30°N and 100–140°E with a horizontal grid resolution of 0.5°. The extent and timing of these upwelling areas are described. A review of existing hypothesis on the mechanisms for their evolution and seasonal modulation are presented. The change in heat content during the upwelling season is greater than 300 W m⁻² in both areas. Based on the excursion of isotherms, vertical velocities of 83 cm day⁻¹ and 26 cm day⁻¹ were obtained for upwelling northwest of Luzon and east of Mindanao, respectively.     

Total kinetic energy in four global eddying ocean circulation models and over 5000 current meter records

We compare the total kinetic energy (TKE) in four global eddying ocean circulation simulations with a global dataset of over 5000, quality controlled, moored current meter records. At individual mooring sites, there was considerable scatter between models and observations that was greater than estimated statistical uncertainty. Averaging over all current meter records in various depth ranges, all four models had mean TKE within a factor of two of observations above 3500 m, and within a factor of three below 3500 m. With the exception of observations between 20 and 100 m, the models tended to straddle the observations. However, individual models had clear biases. The free running (no data assimilation) model biases were largest below 2000 m. Idealized simulations revealed that the parameterized bottom boundary layer tidal currents were not likely the source of the problem, but that reducing quadratic bottom drag coefficient may improve the fit with deep observations. Data assimilation clearly improved the model-observation comparison, especially below 2000 m, despite assimilated data existing mostly above this depth and only south of 47 °N. Different diagnostics revealed different aspects of the comparison, though in general the models appeared to be in an eddying-regime with TKE that compared reasonably well with observations.     

Retrieval of sea surface specific humidity based on AMSR-E satellite data

A new algorithm using a multivariate regression technique for retrieving sea surface specific humidity (Q) from remote sensing data from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E) is proposed. Daily and monthly specific humidity data from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis dataset and data of sea surface temperature, atmospheric total water vapor, and wind speed from AMSR-E oceanographic products were used to derive the regression coefficients of the algorithm, and all the data for derivation are from the year 2003. An F-test was applied to the regression, and small P-values indicate that the regressions are significant to a high level of confidence. The derived coefficients have been validated using similar data from the year 2004. The root mean square (rms) error of the algorithm for daily retrieved Q over the global oceans is 1.05 g kg⁻¹, and the rms error for monthly retrieved Q is 0.61 g kg⁻¹.     

Sea level anomalies in straits of Malacca and Singapore

This paper studies sea level anomaly (SLA) behaviour in Malacca and Singapore straits which serve part of a major maritime trade route between Indian and Pacific Ocean using both observed data and numerical model. Spatio-temporal behaviour of SLA in the region is analyzed based on 15 years of in-situ and remote sensing data. Results show that SLA signatures can be distinctly different in the two straits, with vastly opposite behaviours during certain months. By further analyzing spatial dependency of observed SLA in the region, SLA in Malacca and Singapore straits are found to be under the influence of Indian Ocean and South China Sea, respectively. Based on this insight, a numerical model is built with the appropriate non-tidal forcing derived from meteorological model and satellite dataset to properly represent SLA in Malacca and Singapore straits with Root Mean Square Error of less than 10 cm. With this well calibrated model, the effect of different types of forcing on volume flux through the straits is investigated. Combined tidal and non-tidal forcing in the model gives 4 to 7 × 10¹¹ m³ of annual net westward volume flux through the straits which is four to seven times higher than that of tidal forcing alone. Furthermore with this combined forcing, a distinct seasonal trend with westward net flow during northeast monsoon (November to March) and eastward net flow during southwest monsoon (May to September) can be observed through the straits in the model which is not observed with tidal forcing. The findings of this paper highlight the importance of these non-tidal forcing in the model to obtain accurate SLA and flow representation in the straits that is vital to environmental fate and transport modelling during operational forecast.     

Ice–ocean interactions during shallow convection under conditions of steady winds: three-dimensional numerical studies

A three-dimensional hydrodynamic ocean model coupled to a thermohydrodynamic model for young sea ice is applied to study shallow haline convection in the central Greenland Sea, with an emphasis on sub-mesoscale ice–ocean interactions. Two types of young sea ice are distinguished; i.e., frazil and pancake ice, both acting different on surface heat, salt, and momentum fluxes. Two scenarios are considered: (a) continued frazil-ice production during steady winds, and (b) the same scenario but with the intermittent formation of pancake ice during a short intervening period of low winds. Brine release due to new-ice production creates shallow convection in both cases. Under conditions of continued frazil-ice production, ice streaks develop at the sea surface, finally becoming oriented roughly parallel to the wind. These streaks are the result of convective plumes that induce organized patterns of convergent and divergent surface currents. Frazil-ice is herded into convergence zones where it becomes as thick as 6 m within 24 h. The studies suggest a strong relationship between streak spacing and the penetration depth of convection, given by an aspect ratio in the range of 2–3. After pancake ice has been formed, however, the organized ice streaks vanish, developing into complex patterns of pancake ice. This finding is in agreement with recent field observations in the Greenland Sea Is-Odden ice tongue. With the existence of pancake ice, moreover, the surface-averaged buoyancy flux decreases and is determined from the integral of local sub-mesoscale ice–ocean interactions.     

Ocean current estimation using a Multi-Model Ensemble Kalman Filter during the Grand Lagrangian Deployment experiment (GLAD)

In the summer and fall of 2012, during the GLAD experiment in the Gulf of Mexico, the Consortium for Advanced Research on Transport of Hydrocarbon in the Environment (CARTHE) used several ocean models to assist the deployment of more than 300 surface drifters. The Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM) at 1 km and 3 km resolutions, the US Navy operational NCOM at 3 km resolution (AMSEAS), and two versions of the Hybrid Coordinates Ocean Model (HYCOM) set at 4 km were running daily and delivering 72-h range forecasts. They all assimilated remote sensing and local profile data but they were not assimilating the drifter’s observations. This work presents a non-intrusive methodology named Multi-Model Ensemble Kalman Filter that allows assimilating the local drifter data into such a set of models, to produce improved ocean currents forecasts. The filter is to be used when several modeling systems or ensembles are available and/or observations are not entirely handled by the operational data assimilation process. It allows using generic in situ measurements over short time windows to improve the predictability of local ocean dynamics and associated high-resolution parameters of interest for which a forward model exists (e.g. oil spill plumes). Results can be used for operational applications or to derive enhanced background fields for other data assimilation systems, thus providing an expedite method to non-intrusively assimilate local observations of variables with complex operators. Results for the GLAD experiment show the method can improve water velocity predictions along the observed drifter trajectories, hence enhancing the skills of the models to predict individual trajectories.     

4DVAR data assimilation in the Intra-Americas Sea with the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS)

We present the background, development, and preparation of a state-of-the-art 4D variational (4DVAR) data assimilation system in the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) with an application in the Intra-Americas Sea (IAS). This initial application with a coarse model shows the efficacy of the 4DVAR methodology for use within complex ocean environments, and serves as preparation for deploying an operational, real-time assimilation system onboard the Royal Caribbean Cruise Lines ship Explorer of the Seas. Assimilating satellite sea surface height and temperature observations with in situ data from the ship in 14 day cycles over 2 years from January 2005 through March 2007, reduces the observation-model misfit by over 75%. Using measures of the Loop Current dynamics, we show that the assimilated solution is consistent with observed statistics.     

A coupled ice–ocean model for the Greenland,Iceland and Norwegian Seas

Simulations from a coupled ice–ocean model that highlight the importance of synoptic forcing on sea-ice dynamics are described. The ocean model is a non-hydrostatic primitive equation model coupled to a dynamic thermodynamic sea ice model. The ice modelling sensitivity study presented here is part of an ongoing research programme to define the role played by sea ice in the energy balance of the Greenland Sea. The different categories of sea ice found in the subpolar regions are simulated through the use of equations for thin ice, thick ice and the Marginal Ice Zone. A basin scale numerical model of the Greenland, Iceland and Norwegian Seas has a horizontal resolution of 20 km and a vertical grid spacing of 50 m. This resolution is adequate for resolving the mesoscale topographic structures known to control the circulation in this region. The spin-up reproduces the main features of the circulation, including the cyclonic gyres in the Norwegian and Greenland Basins and Iceland Plateau. Topographic steering of the flow is evident. The baroclinic Rossby radius of deformation is between 5 and 10 km so that the model is not eddy-resolving. The coupled ice–ocean model was run for a period of two weeks. The influence of horizontal resolution of the atmospheric model was tested by comparing simulations using six hourly wind fields from the ECMWF with those generated using six hourly fields from a HIRLAM, with horizontal resolutions of 1° and 0.18° respectively. The simulations show reasonable agreement with satellite ice compactness data and data of ice transports across sections at 79°N, 75°N and Denmark Strait.     

On the heat budget of the Arabian Sea

This study analyzes the heat budget of the Arabian Sea using satellite-derived sea-surface temperature (SST) from 1985 to 1995 along with other data sets. For a better understanding of air–sea interaction, canonical average monthly fields representing the spatial and temporal structure of the various components of the heat balance of the Arabian Sea are constructed from up to 30 years of monthly atmospheric and oceanic data. The SST over the Arabian Sea is not uniform and continually evolves with time. Cooling occurs over most of the basin during November through January and May through July, with the greatest cooling in June and July. Warming occurs over most of the basin during the remainder of the year, with the greatest warming occurring in March and September. Results indicate that the sign of the net heat flux is strongly dependent on the location and month. The effects of net heat flux and penetrative solar radiation strongly influence the change in SST during February and are less important during August and September. Horizontal advection acts to cool the sea surface during the northeast monsoon months. During the southwest monsoon horizontal advection of surface waters warms the SST over approximately the southern half of the basin, while the advection of upwelled water from the Somalia and Oman coasts substantially cools the northern basin. The central Arabian Sea during the southwest monsoon is the only area where the change in SST is balanced by the entrainment and turbulent diffusion at the base of the mixed layer. Agreement between the temporal change in the satellite-derived SST and the change calculated from the conservation of heat equation is surprisingly good given the errors in the measured variables and the bulk formula parameters. Throughout the year, monthly results over half of the basin agree within 3°. Considering that the SST changes between 8° and 12° over the year, this means that our results explain from 62% to 75% of the change in SST over 56% of the Arabian Sea. Two major processes contribute to the discrepancy in the change in SST calculated according to the heat budget equation and the change in SST derived from satellite observations. The first is the effect of the horizontal advection term. The position of the major eddies and currents during the southwest monsoon greatly affects the change in SST due to the large gradient in temperature between the cold upwelled waters along the Somali coast to the warm waters in the interior of the basin. The second major process is the thermocline effect. In areas of shallow mixed-layer depth, high insolation and wind speeds of either less than 3 m/s or greater than 15 m/s, the bulk formulae parameterization of the surface heat fluxes is inappropriate.     

On the nature of oceanic eddies shed by the Island of Gran Canaria

We use hydrographic and buoy data to compare the initial temperature fields and Lagrangian evolution of water parcels in two vortices generated by the southward flowing Canary Current passing around the island of Gran Canaria Island. One vortex is anticyclonic, shed in June 1998 as the result of an incident current of about 0.05 m s⁻¹, and the second one is cyclonic, shed in June 2005 with the impinging current estimated as 0.03 m s⁻¹. The two vortices exhibit contrasting characteristics yet display some important similarities. The isopycnals are depressed in the core of the anticyclonic vortex, at least down to a depth of 700 m, whilst they dome up in the core of the cyclonic vortex but only down to 450 m. In the top 300 m the depression/doming of the isotherms is similar for both vortices, with a maximum vertical displacement of the isotherm of about 80 m, which correspond to temperature anomalies of some 2.5 °C at a given depth. A simple method is developed to obtain the initial orbital velocity field from the temperature data, from which we estimate peak values of 0.7 and 0.5 m s⁻¹ for the anticyclonic and cyclonic vortices, respectively. The buoys, three for the anticyclonic vortex and two for the cyclonic one, were drougued at 100 m depth, below the surface mixed layer, and their initial velocities are consistent with the above values. In both vortices, the buoys revolve either within a central core, where the rotation rate remains stable and large for several weeks, or in an outer ring, where the rotation rate is significantly smaller and displays large radial fluctuations. Within the inner core the anticyclonic vortex has significant inward radial velocity, while the cyclonic vortex has near-zero radial mean motions. The cyclonic vortex rotates more slowly than the anticyclonic, their initial periods being 4.5 and 2.5 days, respectively. A simple axisymmetric model with radial diffusion (coefficient K_h≅25 m² s⁻¹) and advection reproduces the observations reasonably well, the diffusive effect being more important than that resulting from the observed radial advection. The model also supports the hypothesis that the rotation rate of cyclonic vortices is less than that of anticyclonic vortices, as otherwise they would become inertially unstable. Both the buoys data and sea surface temperature images confirm that the vortices evolve from youth to maturity, as the cores shrink and the outer rings expands, and then to a decay stage, as the core rotation rates decrease, though frequent interactions with other mesoscale structures result in more accelerated aging. Despite these interaction they last many months as coherent structures south of the Canary Islands.     

Enhancement of particulate organic carbon export flux induced by atmospheric forcing in the subtropical oligotrophic northwest Pacific Ocean

The effects of extreme atmospheric forcing on the export flux of particulate organic carbon (POC) in the warm oligotrophic nitrogen-limited northwest Pacific Ocean were examined in 2007 during the spring Asian dust storm period. Several strong northeast monsoon events (maximum sustained wind speeds approaching 16.7 m s^? 1, and gusts up to 19.0 m s^? 1) accompanied by dust storms occurred during a 1-month period. The cold stormy events decreased surface water temperature and induced strong wind-driven vertical mixing of the water column, resulting in nutrient entrainment into the mixed layer from subsurface waters. As a result, the export flux of POC ranged from 49 to 98 (average value = 71 ± 16) mg m^? 2 day^? 1, approximately 2–3 times greater than average values in other seasons. As dry and wet deposition of nitrogen attributable to Asian dust storm events does not account for the associated increases in POC stocks in this N-limited oligotrophic oceanic region, the enhancement of POC flux must have been caused by nutrient entrainment from subsurface waters because of the high winds accompanying the dust storm events.     

The effect of ocean tides on a climate model simulation

We implemented an explicit forcing of the complete lunisolar tides into an ocean model which is part of a coupled atmosphere–hydrology–ocean–sea ice model. An ensemble of experiments with this climate model shows that the model is significantly affected by the induced tidal mixing and nonlinear interactions of tides with low frequency motion. The largest changes occur in the North Atlantic where the ocean current system gets changed on large scales. In particular, the pathway of the North Atlantic Current is modified resulting in improved sea surface temperature fields compared to the non-tidal run. These modifications are accompanied by a more realistic simulation of the convection in the Labrador Sea. The modification of sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic region leads to heat flux changes of up to 50 W/m². The climate simulations indicate that an improvement of the North Atlantic Current has implications for the simulation of the Western European Climate, with amplified temperature trends between 1950 and 2000, which are closer to the observed trends.     

Interannual variability and seasonal contribution of thermal expansion to sea level in the Persian Gulf

In an attempt to understand the causes of the sea-level seasonal cycle in the Persian Gulf, we investigated the relationships of sea-level data from 11 stations with atmospheric pressure and thermosteric level. Sea level is significantly correlated among all stations. The mean trend in sea level for the Persian Gulf is about 2.34 mm/year. The thermosteric sea-level variability is estimated from temperature profiles at one-degree grid points. Contour maps of thermosteric level show that the height due to thermal expansion is high in summer and autumn, and low during winter and spring. The monthly mean thermostric height ranges from +2.2 cm in July to −2.1 cm in February. The major change in sea level due to the thermosteric level seems to be associated with the large change of the thermohaline circulation in the Persian Gulf. The maximum expansion occurs in summer, and the maximum contraction occurs in winter.Results of the regression analysis demonstrate that from 62% to 90.2% of the variance in the seasonal cycle is due to atmospheric pressure. The inclusion of the thermosteric sea level as a secondary forcing in the regression model improves the variance explained to 78.1–90.7%. The remaining change should be due to the halosteric effect and upwelling. Tide-gauge stations located at the Gulf's head show high correlation with Ekman vertical velocity. There are two distinct tide gauge stations in the Persian Gulf. One is found in the first cyclonic gyre and the other in the second gyre. The inclusion of Ekman upwelling to the model, improves significantly the variations explained as well, from 82.3% to 91.9%.     

Hydrography and circulation of the West Antarctic Peninsula Continental Shelf

The water mass structure and circulation of the continental shelf waters west of the Antarctic Peninsula are described from hydrographic observations made in March–May 1993. The observations cover an area that extends 900 km alongshore and 200 km offshore and represent the most extensive hydrographic data set currently available for this region. Waters above 100–150 m are composed of Antarctic Surface Water and its end member Winter Water. Below the permanent pycnocline is a modified version of Circumpolar Deep Water, which is a cooled and freshened version of Upper Circumpolar Deep Water. The distinctive signature of cold and salty water from the Bransfield Strait is found at some inshore locations, but there is little indication of significant exchange between Bransfield Strait and the west Antarctic Peninsula shelf. Dynamic topography at 200 m relative to 400 m indicates that the baroclinic circulation on the shelf is composed of a large, weak, cyclonic gyre, with sub-gyres at the northeastern and southwestern ends of the shelf. The total transport of the shelf gyre is 0.15 Sv, with geostrophic currents of order 0.01 m s^-1. A simple model that balances across-shelf diffusion of heat and salt from offshore Upper Circumpolar Deep Water with vertical diffusion of heat and salt across the permanent pycnocline into Winter Water is used to explain the formation of the modified Circumpolar Deep Water that is found on the shelf. Model results show that the observed thermohaline distributions across the shelf can be maintained with a coefficient of vertical diffusion of 10^-4 m² s^-1 and horizontal diffusion coefficients for heat and salt of 200 and 1200 m² s^-1, respectively. When the effects of double diffusion are included in the model, the required horizontal diffusion coefficients for heat and salt are 200 and 400 m² s^-1, respectively.