表面增暖形态决定了全球水汽加温度直减率反馈的不确定性

气候反馈通常是利用与全球平均表面温度升高相关的辐射效应变化来评估的。但是反馈的不确定性不仅仅是全球平均表面温度升高的函数。全球气候模式的预测表明，海表面温度变化的地域不同，给区域尺度上的大气环流和降水响应带来了重大不确定性。在本文中我们证明了表面增暖的空间格局是造成水汽-直减率综合反馈的不确定性的主要因素。基于运用辐射核理论计算的31个气候模型中，气温和相对湿度变化的全球平均辐射效应证明了这一观点。我们的结果突出了区域气候变化对气候反馈不确定性的重要贡献，并确定了世界上限制表面增暖形态对提高气候预测能力最有效的区域。     

Seasonal barotropic sea surface height fluctuation in relation to regional ocean mass variation

A consistency between seasonal fluctuation of actual sea surface height (SSH) and those caused by mass and density variations in gyre-scale regions is examined. The SSH obtained from satellite altimetry (altimetric SSH) is adopted as the actual SSH. SSH caused by mass variation (mass-related SSH) is simulated using a barotropic global ocean model forced by water flux, wind stress and surface pressure. SSH caused by density variation (steric SSH) is calculated from water density profile, i.e. temperature and salinity profiles. The model SSH well represents mass-related SSH for gyre-scale regional means, and seasonal fluctuation of the altimetric SSH corrected for the model SSH is similar to that of steric SSH above a pressure level larger than 300 dbar. The results indicate that the mass-related SSH does not much respond to the baroclinic adjustment to the seasonally varying wind stress curl. The mass-related SSH forced by wind stress and surface pressure should be accounted for regional evaluation, though it is not necessary for global mean evaluation. Detection of steric SSH from altimetric SSH would be useful for assimilation approaches in which the altimetric SSH is treated as the variable reflecting subsurface temperature and salinity.     

副热带东北太平洋混合层深度及潜沉率季节循环对全球变暖的响应

本文利用第五次国际耦合模式比较计划（CMIP5）中的地球系统模式（ESM2M）,结合Argo观测数据和由Ishii等整理的再分析数据集,分析现在气候背景和辐射强迫极端增强下副热带东北太平洋海域（10°～40°N,110°～160°W）混合层深度（MLD）和潜沉率的季节变化特征,研究其对全球变暖的响应。在现在气候背景下,二者最大值均出现在冬季。潜沉率的主要贡献项存在显著的季节变化差异,1?5月主要受侧向潜沉率的变化控制,6?12月则由风应力旋度导致的埃克曼抽吸速度变化主控。全球变暖后,季节循环信号的主控要素不变。但受风应力旋度等要素变化的影响,各季节的MLD减小,大值区范围收缩。由于冬季减小幅度远大于夏季,MLD季节波动幅度（振幅）显著变小。长期看,MLD呈现持续变浅的趋势,其空间不均匀性减弱引起的MLD锋面减弱是控制侧向潜沉率减弱,最终导致总潜沉率减弱的关键。由于埃克曼抽吸速度的季节变化信号对全球变暖的响应较小,因此总潜沉率在冬季受全球变暖的影响最为强烈。上述结果表明,构成潜沉率的两个关键要素对总潜沉率的贡献比例是随着季节变化而改变的:冬季MLD锋面强盛时期,侧向潜沉率的影响将显著增强。全球变暖前后二者截然不同的变化会显著改变潜沉率的季节循环振幅,可能对该区域模态水的形成和输运产生深远的影响。     

四种全球大洋水汽数据产品的比较分析*

文章比较了卫星专用传感器微波成像仪/探测仪(SSM/I&SSMIS)、遥感系统数据集(RSS V7R01)、欧洲中期天气预报中心第5代再分析数据(ERA5)和现代回顾分析的研究与应用第2版数据(MERRA-2) 4种观测和再分析资料在刻画全球大洋水汽气候态中的异同点, 初步探究了不同尺度的大气柱水汽总量(TCWV)的变化特征和长期趋势。研究结果表明, 4种数据TCWV的空间分布、季节和年际变化较为一致。从1988至2018年, TCWV总体呈增加趋势, 其中热带海洋的年际变化显著, 增加趋势较强, 且和厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)高度相关。利用再分析数据做短时间(如1991—1997年)的TCWV趋势分析时要慎重使用ERA5和MERRA-2的数据。在研究热带区域长期水汽变化趋势时, 需谨慎使用MERRA-2的数据。     

A multidisciplinary study of the Cape Peloro brackish area (Messina, Italy): characterisation of trophic conditions, microbial abundances and activities

In the framework of the VECTOR DIVCOST Project, a 2-year investigation was started in 2006, with the aim of testing the sensibility of microbial parameters to environmental changes and of assessing whether they can provide information about functional changes in the carbon cycle. The investigation was performed in the surface waters of two small brackish ponds (Ganzirri and Faro), located in the Cape Peloro transitional area (Sicily, Italy). The seasonal changes in both the microbial compartment [bacterioplankton, vibrios, exoenzymatic hydrolysis of proteins and polysaccharides, bacterial secondary production (HBP) and community respiration] and the trophic state of suspended matter [total suspended matter (TSM), particulate organic carbon (POC), particulate organic nitrogen (PON), C/N] were analysed in relation to the hydrological characteristics [temperature, salinity, oxygen, fluorescence, NH₄, NO₂, NO₃, PO₄]. Despite marked differences in the nutritional input and the diversification in both carbon budget and trophic level, the two ponds show similar trends in many of the investigated factors, hardly influenced by seasonal variations. Temporally coupled trends were observed for some parameters (enzyme activities, vibrios abundances, respiratory activity), whereas others (POC, PON, heterotrophic bacterial production, bacterioplankton) showed a seasonal shift between the two lakes. The different behaviour found for the some biotic parameters suggests that their response to environmental conditions may be modulated differently between the two lakes, which, despite their spatial proximity and reciprocal connection, do not always show contemporaneous functional processes.     

Implementing convection inito Lorenz's global cycle. Part I. Gridscale averaging of the energy equations

Sub‐gridscale processes take place throughout the global atmosphere. Yet they have been neglected in traditional estimates of the global energy cycle on the ground that they can be treated as molecular heat fluxes. This view may cause quantitative underestimates of the efficiency of the global circulation of the atmosphere. In Part I of this two-part study we revisit the classical theory, beginning with the local energy equations. Similar to Lorenz we introduce a barotropic reference pressure p _r and define a generalized field equation for the integrand of available potential energy, without reference to hydrostasy. The emerging energy quantity is new in that it comprises not only the classical correlation between efficiency factor and enthalpy but also an additional potential that depends upon p _r . We then perform mass-averaging over the scale of contemporaneous global models (40‐400 km) and come up with averaged field energy equations, valid at the gridscale. Additional global and time-averaging of these removes all divergences and tendencies and yields two equations for the global energy reservoirs. The available potential energy reservoir is fed by gridscale plus sub-gridscale generation. The kinetic energy reservoir is tapped by gridscale plus sub-gridscale dissipation. Exchange between the reservoirs is carried by both gridscale and sub-gridscale conversion terms ( C ^grid, C ^sub ). Generation, conversion and dissipation fluxes are complete, as compared to the approximate quantities in the traditional formulation of the energy cycle. This approach allows to fully exploit Lorenz's original concept. The gridscale equations derived will be the basis for evaluating numerically the classical Lorenz terms plus a couple of new global conversion fluxes, notably C ^sub, to be presented in Part II of this study.     

Variability in the Hydrographic and Biological Features of the Gulf of Naples

Abstract. Recent observations of physico-chemical and biological parameters in the Gulf of Naples are summarized. The water masses present within the Gulf during the various periods of the year are described. The temporal and spatial distribution of surface nutrients (N-NO₃, P-PO₄, Si-SiO₄) and chlorophyll a are reported and the areas exposed to local eutrophication are identified. Biweekly sampling at a reference station has permitted us also to identify both phytoplankton and zooplankton seasonal cycles. The morphology of the basin and the uneven land runoff distribution are interpreted as causal to the variability of chemico-physical parameters and of the associated biological communities, giving rise to two subsystems (coastal and "open water") within the Gulf.     

渤海湾M2分潮的季节变化:增强调和分析的应用

M₂分潮的季节变化对沿海的海洋环境有着重要影响。增强调和分析(EHA)既可以提取主要分潮时变的振幅和迟角,同时可以得到其他分潮不随时间变化的振幅和迟角。本文利用EHA分析渤海湾两个站点的水位数据,研究了渤海湾M₂分潮的季节变化。为了评估EHA方法的准确性,在理想实验中设计了人造“水位数据”。利用EHA分析得到的M₂分潮时变振幅和迟角以及S₂、K₁、O₁分潮不随时间变化的振幅和迟角均比其他方法得到的结果更接近给定值,表明了EHA的有效性和可用性。当使用EHA分析渤海湾实际海平面观测数据时,得到的M₂分潮振幅具有明显的季节变化特征:夏季较大,冬季较小。敏感性实验表明,分析所得渤海湾M₂分潮振幅的季节变化趋势不受实验设置的影响,是鲁棒的,能够反映该海域真实的M₂分潮季节变化。此外,渤海湾M₂分潮振幅的季节变化可能是东亚季风通过影响平均海平面、层化和涡动黏性系数的季节变化而引起的。     

Changes in average and extreme precipitation in two regional climate model experiments

Two regional climate model experiments for northern and central Europe are studied focussing on greenhouse gas‐induced changes in heavy precipitation. The average yearly maximum one‐day precipitation P _max shows a general increase in the whole model domain in both experiments, although the mean precipitation P _mean decreases in the southern part of the area, especially in one of the experiments. The average yearly maximum six‐hour precipitation increases even more than the one‐day P _max, suggesting a decrease in the timescale of heavy precipitation. The contrast between the P _mean and P _max changes in the southern part of the domain and the lack of such a contrast further north are affected by changes in wet‐day frequency that stem, at least in part, from changes in atmospheric circulation. However, the yearly extremes of precipitation exhibit a larger percentage increase than the average wet‐day precipitation. The signal‐to‐noise aspects of the model results are also studied in some detail. The 44 km grid‐box‐scale changes in P _max are very heavily affected by inter‐annual variability, with an estimated standard error of about 20% for the 10‐year mean changes. However, the noise in P _max decreases sharply toward larger horizontal scales, and large‐area mean changes in P _max can be estimated with similar accuracy to those in P _mean. Although a horizontal averaging of model results smooths out the small‐scale details in the true climate change signal as well, this disadvantage is, in the case of P _max changes, much smaller than the advantage of reduced noise.     

Estimates of carbon monoxide emissions from wildfires in northern Eurasia for airquality assessment and climate modeling

The emissions from fires in the boreal zone of northern Eurasia significantly contribute to the global emissions of greenhouse gases, their precursors, and aerosols. These emissions are an important component of the global carbon balance, and they significantly affect both seasonal and long-term variations in the chemical composition and radiation properties of the atmosphere on both regional and global scales. The atmospheric emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) from biomass burning have systematically been estimated for the entire territory of northern Eurasia over the period of 2000–2008 on the basis of satellite (MODIS MCD45A1) data on burned vegetation and the Seiler-Crutzen emission model with consideration for both regional and seasonal features. On the whole, for Russia, the annual emissions of CO from biomass burning ranged from 10.6 to 88.2 Mt/y over the indicated period. Depending on fire activity, the atmospheric emissions of CO from natural fires and agricultural work may yield from 25 to 200% of the total technogenic emissions according to the EDGAR-2000 model. In this case, the dominant contribution is made by boreal forest fires (8–57 Mt/y), whose portion amounts to 63–76% of the total emissions from biomass burning. This relatively short observational series does not allow one to reliably estimate long-term variations; however, on the whole, a stable increase in burned areas has been observed in forest, steppe, and agricultural regions over the last decade. Our analysis suggests significant spatial and seasonal variations in the large-scale fields of fire emissions, which are determined by the physical, geographic, and climatic features of individual regions. The calculated fields of emissions can be used in transport-chemical models, studies of the regional transport and quality of air, and climate models.     

Description of the Phytoplanktonic Community of the Oligotrophic Waters of the SE Aegean Sea (Mediterranean)

Abstract. A seasonal sampling program of five stations off the Island of Rhodes (SE Aegean Sea) was carried out in 1983–1984. Temperature, salinity, Secchi disk transparency, P-PO₄, N-NO₃, N-NO₂, N-NH₃, Si-SiO₂, and chl a were measured and phytoplankton species recorded. Cell concentrations and chl a varied seasonally. with the highest values in summer (l.2 times 10⁴ -1^--¹ total mean cells; 0.13 mgam^-3 total mean chl a ) and the lowest in winter (2.3 times 10³, 1^--¹ total mean cells; 0.06 mg^.m-^- total mean chl a ). A variation in cell abundance among stations was also noted. Quantitative relationships among the recorded taxa showed that diatoms and dinoflagellates were richer in species composition (88 and 58 total species, respectively) than coccolithophores (8 species) and other flagellates (8 species). Comparison of phytoplankton samples from different depths and stations by cluster analysis showed an irregularity or discontinuity in species associations. The SE Aegean Sea was characterized as oligotrophic on the basis of the estimated nutrient and phytoplankton concentration levels.     

基于多源融合卫星高度计观测数据的南海海浪有效波高的季节变化研究

The seasonal variability of the significant wave height(SWH) in the South China Sea(SCS) is investigated using the most up-to-date gridded daily altimeter data for the period of September 2009 to August 2015. The results indicate that the SWH shows a uniform seasonal variation in the whole SCS, with its maxima occurring in December/January and minima in May. Throughout the year, the SWH in the SCS is the largest around Luzon Strait(LS) and then gradually decreases southward across the basin. The surface wind speed has a similar seasonal variation, but with different spatial distributions in most months of the year. Further analysis indicates that the observed SWH variations are dominated by swell. The wind sea height, however, is much smaller. It is the the largest in two regions southwest of Taiwan Island and southeast of Vietnam Coast during the northeasterly monsoon, while the largest in the central/southern SCS during the southwesterly monsoon. The extreme wave condition also experiences a significant seasonal variation. In most regions of the northern and central SCS, the maxima of the 99 th percentile SWH that are larger than the SWH theoretically calculated with the wind speed for the fully developed seas mainly appear in August–November, closely related to strong tropical cyclone activities.Compared with previous studies, it is also implied that the wave climate in the Pacific Ocean plays an important role in the wave climate variations in the SCS.     

全球变暖背景下南海动力海平面变化

由于分辨率不足等原因,当前大部分全球耦合气候模式对南海等海洋区域的模拟能力仍然较低。本文基于超高分辨率（Ultra high-resolution） CESM-UHR耦合模式（大气和海洋水平分辨率分别达到约25 km和约10 km）研究了南海动力海平面对全球变暖的响应。研究发现：（1） CESM-UHR能够较好地模拟出南海冬、夏季节性动力海面高度和表层环流变化;（2）在四倍二氧化碳试验下,冬季南海动力海平面变化呈现出中部低、近岸高的分布特征;夏季则呈现出西北部低、东南部高的分布特征,分别对应冬、夏表层地转流增强趋势;（3）冬、夏动力海平面变化特征与风应力旋度变化具有很好的对应关系;（4）全球变暖下南海海平面变化存在季节循环放大效应,这将增大南海极端水位灾害风险。     

太平洋内部副热带-热带经向翻转环流的季节变化特征

太平洋内部副热带-热带经向翻转环流(subtropical-tropical cell,STC)是连接热带和副热带的海洋通道.由于以往海洋观测资料的匮乏,前人多利用海洋模式数据进行研究,且仅限于沿单一纬度上的STC的分析,较少涉及沿不同纬度的STC的季节变异规律.利用地转海洋学实时观测阵(array for real-...     

南海表层水温场的时空特征与长期变化趋势

本文利用月平均表层水温（SST）、850hPa经向风和西太平洋副热带高压等资料分析了南海表层水温距平（SSTA）场的时空特征和长期变化趋势，并探讨了SST的年际和长期变化原因．结果表明，南海SSTA场分别存在着以全域同位相振荡和东南一西北向反位相振荡的两个主要模态．其中，前者是主要模态，以年际振荡为主，而后者则是次要模态，以季节振荡为主．进一步分析发现，南海中部的SST存在着显著的年际和年代际变化，并在1981年前后发生了一次由低到高的气候转变，而且南海中部SST的长期变化趋势非常明显，在1950—2006年间增温0．92℃．相关和合成分析表明，南海SST的年际和长期变化可能是由南海上空的经向风异常和西太平洋副热带高压的纬向变动引起的．     

东海温度锋的分布特征及其季节变异

根据１９３４－１９８８年东海水文观测资料，重点分析东海温度锋的分布特征及其季节变异，并结合近期中日黑潮合作调查研究成果，初步探讨温度锋季节变异和水团演变的关系，所得主要结论是：（１）东海不仅常年存在浙闽沿岸锋，东海北部陆架锋和黑潮锋，而且、春、夏两季，在东海南部还出现一条东海中部出架锋。（２）江海温度锋季节变化的特点是：冬季，锋的宽度和强度皆是表层最强，夏季，表层温度锋仅出现在浙江近岸小范围海域。     

Inferring the global mean sea level from a global tide gauge network

An attempt is made to infer the global mean sea level(GMSL) from a global tide gauge network and frame the problem in terms of the limitations of the network. The network,owing to its limited number of gauges and poor geographical distribution complicated further by unknown vertical land movements,is ill suited for measuring the GMSL. Yet it remains the only available source for deciphering the sea level rise over the last 100 a. The poor sampling characteristics of the tide gauge network have necessitated the usage of statistical inference. A linear optimal estimator based on the Gauss-Markov theorem seems well suited for the job. This still leaves a great deal of freedom in choosing the estimator. GMSL is poorly correlated with tide gauge measurements because the small uniform rise and fall of sea level are masked by the far larger regional signals. On the other hand,a regional mean sea level(RMSL) is much better correlated with the corresponding regional tide gauge measurements. Since the GMSL is simply the sum of RMSLs,the problem is transformed to one of estimating the RMSLs from regional tide gauge measurements. Specifically for the annual heating and cooling cycle,we separate the global ocean into 10-latitude bands and compute for each 10-latitude band the estimator that predicts its RMSL from tide gauges within. In the future,the statistical correlations are to be computed using satellite altimetry. However,as a first attempt,we have used numerical model outputs instead to isolate the problem so as not to get distracted by altimetry or tide gauge errors. That is,model outputs for sea level at tide gauge locations of the GLOSS network are taken as tide gauge measurements,and the RMSLs are computed from the model outputs. The results show an estimation error of approximately 2 mm versus an error of 2.7 cm if we simply average the tide gauge measurements to estimate the GMSL,caused by the much larger regional seasonal cycle and mesoscale variation plaguing the individual tide gauges. The numerical model,Los Alamos POP model Run 11 lasting 3 1/4 a,is one of the best eddy-resolving models and does a good job simulating the annual heating and cooling cycle,but it has no global or regional trend. Thus it has basically succeeded in estimating the seasonal cycle of the GMSL. This is still going to be the case even if we use the altimetry data because the RMSLs are dominated by the seasonal cycle in relatively short periods. For estimating the GMSL trend,longer records and low-pass filtering to isolate the statistical relations that are of interest. Here we have managed to avoid the much larger regional seasonal cycle plaguing individual tide gauges to get a fairly accurate estimate of the much smaller seasonal cycle in the GMSL so as to enhance the prospect of an accurate estimate of GMSL trend in short periods. One should reasonably expect to be able to do the same for longer periods during which tide gauges are plagued by much larger regional interannual(e. g.,ENSO events) and decadal sea level variations. In the future,with the availability of the satellite altimeter data,we could use the same approach adopted here to estimate the seasonal variations of GMSL and RMSL accurately and remove these seasonal variations accordingly so as to get a more accurate statistical inference between the tide gauge data and the RMSLs(therefore the GMSL) at periods longer than 1 a,i. e.,the long-term trend.     

Seismic ambient noise around the South China Sea: seasonal and spatial variations, and implications for its climate and surface circulation

With its strong seasonal variation in wave climate and various bathymetric features due to the complex tectonics, the South China Sea (SCS) provides a natural laboratory to study the microseism. We collected data from seismic stations around the SCS and calculated their noise spectra, through which seasonal and spatial variations of microseism, as well as the general feature of seismic ambient noise in this marginal sea were revealed. Microseism seasonal variations in general reflect influences of the East Asian monsoon in winter and the Indian monsoon in summer, respectively. The two microseism components, the single frequency microseism (SFM) and the double frequency microseism (DFM), show striking alternating variation patterns both seasonally and spatially. These variation patterns, along with the bathymetric feature near the stations, indicate SFM and DFM are generated through different physical mechanisms. More interestingly, seasonal and spatial variations of DFM appear to be consistent with the basin-scale surface circulation model of the SCS, in which the upper SCS experiences cyclonic in winter and anti-cyclonic in summer. These consistencies provide observational evidence for the hypothesis that the cyclonic depression is a favorable condition to generate DFM.     

Temperature Effects on Photosynthesis and Depth Distribution of the Seagrass Cymodocea nodosa (ucria) Ascherson in a Mediterranean Coastal Lagoon: the Mar Menor (SE Spain)

Abstract. Seasonal variation of temperature effects on photosynthesis and respiration of Cymodorea nodosa (Ucria) Ascherson was investigated in a 1 m depth meadow in the Mar Menor lagoon (SE Spain). Light-saturated net photosynthesis (P_max)and dark respiration (R) rates were linearly correlated with water temperature between 10 and 30°C. and 10 and 35°C, respectively, during the year. Water temperature had a similar effect on R rates in August, November, and February, but increased P_max rates in August vs. those in February, thus promoting a shift of the maximum P_max/R ratio values from 15°C in February to 30°C in August. P-I curves had higher P_max values in May and August than in November or February, while Ic values remained relatively constant throughout the year. Whole-plant carbon balances suggested that C. nodosa might not be able to survive in the central basin of the lagoon and that the spatial distribution of this seagrass in the Mar Menor might be controlled by light availability.     

沿海水位和大尺度气候状态——降尺度技术在日本列岛的应用

沿海水位和大尺度气候状态——降尺度技术在日本列岛的应用