热带气旋中期路径的动力相似预测方案

提出一个西北太平洋热带气旋中期路径的动力相似预测方案.方案应用热带气旋初始参数和数值预报产品,构造未来时刻环境要素场的多元客观相似判据.通过定义非线性的相似指数综合评估历史热带气旋样本与预报热带气旋在多元判据下的连续动态相似程度,以此找到相似样本.应用相似样本的历史路径进行坐标变换、相似指数的权重综合和惯性动力修正,得到热带气旋中期预报路径.预报试验表明该方案具有预报技巧.     

穿越副高北上的台风路径预报方案

本文提出一个穿越副高北上的台风路径预报方案。在较严格的初始状态条件下,方案应用环境场的多种参数及其导出因子和统计天气预报方法,进行穿越副高北上台风的12～72小时路径客观预报,预报试验表明,该方案对穿越副高北上台风的路径预报具有一定的技巧。     

基于BP神经网络方法的近岸数值海温预报释用技术

为了提高近岸精细化海温预报精度,利用神经网络方法,分析了海温数值预报及观测数据在释用中的作用,研究了定点近岸海温影响因子的最优配置方案,建立了定点海温精细化数值预报释用模型,评估了释用模型性能。误差分析结果显示,数值海温产品及其观测在建模中起到了降低和稳定模型误差的作用;释用模型将定点数值预报的误差从2.2°C减少至0.7°C;预报误差较调训误差略高,但考虑到预报误差的稳定性,数值释用与人工经验预报水平持平,因此,该方法具有十分广阔的拓展空间和应用前景。     

东海热带低压发展的预报模式

本文通过对初始场及环境场与东海热带低发展关系的统计分析，提出了一个预报２４小时东海热带低压发展与否的预报模式。模式从初始场及环境场的参数与导出因子中选取天气学意义明确的高相关预报因子，建立差别及回归的统计预报模式。检验及应用表明该预报模式对东海热带低压的发展与否具有预报能力。     

台风大风预报研究回顾

大风是台风引发的三大灾害之一,考虑到现有的台风大风研究相对较少、预报经验也比较不足,因此对其预报方法进行回顾总结具有十分重要的意义.从经验预报、统计预报、数值模式预报及数值预报产品释用等4个方向梳理了台风大风预报技术的研究与应用现状:天气图、卫星云图和雷达图是经验预报中非常重要的工具;统计预报根据方法的不同可细分为回归...     

基于贝叶斯理论的中国近海网格化气象要素概率预报研究

基于贝叶斯理论建立了一种基本概率预报模式,将欧洲中期天气预报中心数值模式的确定性海面风场预报转换为概率预报,并对概率化后的释用产品进行了评估与检验。对2016年3月和4月释用产品的检验结果表明,在中国近海1425个渔区的全风速预报中,贝叶斯概率预报准确率均较高;对6级及以上大风的预报,贝叶斯概率预报的准确率也较高,且空报率低,无漏报。本文的研究成果为预报员进行业务预报具有指导性意义,同时将为进一步构建海面风场的网格化业务预报体系奠定了技术基础。     

基于GPU技术的风暴潮集合预报

台风预报的准确性在风暴潮预报中起着重要作用。台风强度和路径的不确定性意味着使用集合模式来预报风暴潮。本文利用中央气象台的最优路径台风参数驱动国家海洋环境预报中心业务化的水动力学模型，开展华南沿海的风暴潮模拟，模式模拟结果与实测吻合较好。为了改进计算效率，采用CUDA Fortran 语言对模型进行了改造，改造后的模型在计算结果与原模型基本一致的基础上，计算时间缩短了99%以上。通过融合欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECWMF）的50条路径与3种可能台风强度构造出了150个台风事件，并用150个台风事件驱动改进的风暴潮数值模型，计算结果可以提供集合预报产品和概率预报产品。通过“山竹”台风风暴潮过程可以发现集合平均预报结果和概率预报结果与实测吻合较好。改进的数值模型可以运行普通工作站上，非常适合风暴潮集合预报，并且可以提供更好的决策产品。     

一种利用BP网络预报台风路径的新方法

本文提出了一种基于CLIPER因子构造BP网络并进行台风路径预报的新方法,对同样的因子分别采用CLIPER模式和BP网络模式进行了预报检验。结果表明,无论是对于历史样本还是独立样本,CLIPER模式和BP网络模式的预报精度都达到了要求,且在24h、48h、72h三个预报时次上BP网络模式的预报精度都要高于CLIPER模式。     

一种统计技术结合动力释用的沿海海雾预报方法

提出了一种利用历史相似个例查询技术,结合WRF模式输出释用的Gultepe沿海大雾业务预报方法。该方法可以较好的计算近地面大气中的液态水含量(LWC)和云滴粒子数密度(Nd)参数。利用该方法对2011—2013年的3—6月的历史沿海海雾个例进行试报,结果表明,恰当的结合统计方法和动力模式可以一定程度上克服目前数值模式不成熟的缺陷,从而提高WRF模式在大雾业务预报方面的释用水平。     

低纬西太平洋热带气旋路径中短期预报

本文以动力学原理为依据,结合低纬西太平洋南海地区热带气旋历史资料建立了一个预报南海海区热带气旋未来72小时路径的预报模式。模式只要求输入预报时刻和前期的热带气旋中心位置,最低气压和中心附近最大风速资料便可在IBM或类似的微机上作出未来72小时的路径预报。用统计样本外的6年历史资料作预报检验,6年的平均预报误差表明其预报精度已达一般客观预报水平。     

Springing analysis of a seagoing vessel using fully coupled BEM-FEM in the time domain

The quasi-steady resonant vibration of a flexible seagoing vessel under resonant wave excitation force, called springing, is studied in this paper. A higher-order B-spline Rankine panel method is used to represent the effects of the fluid motion surrounding this flexible seagoing vessel, and a finite element formulation based on Vlasov beam is employed for structural response. The boundary integral equation and finite element equation, both for fluid and structural domains, are fully coupled with each other using an iterative implicit method in the time domain. Coupling between the two field equations is achieved by relying on fixed-point iteration with relaxation aided by Aitken's δ² process to maximize convergence speed. The steady-unsteady coupling term or m-term in the linearized body boundary condition derived by Timman and Newman is taken into account for accurate prediction of flexible body motion when forward speed is present. The 2nd derivative of basis potential in the m-term is obtained by modifying Nakos approach, which was originally developed using the Stokes theorem for rigid body ship motion problem. For the solution of the FE equation, instead of conventionally used modal superposition method, a direct integration scheme based on Newmark method is employed. It is believed that this technique is more attractive in the sense that it allows us free from the selection of optimum number of mode-shapes in the computation.     

基于四维变分同化方法的南海中尺度涡后报实验

海洋中尺度涡在本质上是属于满足准地转平衡的大尺度运动,因此理论上,其在短时间内的运动将主要受到准地转平衡关系的约束,而外部强迫场的影响在短期内不会明显改变其运动特征。基于上述思想,我们提出了一种基于四维变分同化初始场的中尺度涡旋预报方案。为了检验该方案的可行性,本文使用区域海洋模式(regional ocean modeling system, ROMS)和其内建的增量强约束四维变分同化(incremental strong constraint four dimensional variational, I4D-Var)模块,建立了一个南海海洋同化模拟系统。首先,通过I4D-Var方法将AVISO卫星高度计资料同化到海洋数值模拟中,获得了理想的中尺度涡同化模拟结果。同化、模式模拟和观测三者的中尺度涡统计结果表明,该同化系统模拟的南海中尺度涡的路径、半径、海表高度异常和振幅等特征信息与AVISO(Archiving ValidationandInterpolationofSatelliteOceanographicData)观测结果高度吻合,同时在深度上的分析表明,涡旋对应的温度、盐度和密度均得到有效的调整。然后,将该同化系统的模拟结果做为初始场,对某一特定时段的南海中尺度涡进行了后报模拟和结果的定量化分析。通过比较后报模拟与观测资料中对应涡旋的海表面高度异常(sea surface height anomalies, SSHA)相关系数、涡心差距和半径绝对误差,证明该方案的中尺度涡后报时效至少可达10 d以上。后报实验结果验证了该中尺度涡预报方案的可行性,从而为中尺度涡的预报提供一定的理论基础和可行性方案。     

Application of advanced system identification technique to extract roll damping from model tests in order to accurately predict roll motions

In this paper our previously developed advanced system identification technique [1] has been applied to extract the frequency dependent roll damping from a series of model tests run in irregular (random) waves. It is shown that this methodology accurately models the roll damping which can then be used to produce accurate predictions of the ships roll motion. These roll motion predictions are not only more accurate than the potential flow predictions but more accurate than potential flow models corrected using either empirical prediction methods [2] and even those corrected using roll damping obtained from free decay sallying experiments. This methodology has the potential to significantly improve roll motion prediction during full scale at sea trails of vessels in order to dramatically improve safety of critical operations such as helicopter landing or ship to ship cargo transfer.     

Pressure image assimilation for atmospheric motion estimation

The complexity of the laws of dynamics governing 3-D atmospheric flows associated with incomplete and noisy observations make the recovery of atmospheric dynamics from satellite image sequences very difficult. In this paper, we address the challenging problem of estimating physical sound and time-consistent horizontal motion fields at various atmospheric depths for a whole image sequence. Based on a vertical decomposition of the atmosphere, we propose a dynamically consistent atmospheric motion estimator relying on a multilayer dynamic model. This estimator is based on a weak constraint variational data assimilation scheme and is applied on noisy and incomplete pressure difference observations derived from satellite images. The dynamic model is a simplified vorticity-divergence form of a multilayer shallow-water model. Average horizontal motion fields are estimated for each layer. The performance of the proposed technique is assessed using synthetic examples and using real world meteorological satellite image sequences. In particular, it is shown that the estimator enables exploiting fine spatio-temporal image structures and succeeds in characterizing motion at small spatial scales.     

Motion response simulation of a twin-hulled semi-submersible

The purpose of the study was to develop a prediction technique to simulate the motion response of a damaged platform under wave, wind and current forces. The equations of motion were obtained using Newton's second law and the numerical solution technique of non-linear equations of motion is explained for intact and damaged cases. The analysis technique employs large displacement non-linear equations of motion. Solutions were obtained in the time-domain to predict the motion characteristics. In this study, analysis procedures were developed to calculate: (a) wave loading on asymmetrical structural configurations; (b) hydrodynamic reaction forces (inertia or moment of inertia, damping and restoring forces) on asymmetrical shapes. During the damage simulation, change in the mass of the structure as well as wave and hydrodynamic reaction forces, were taken into account. The computer program developed for the time-domain simulation is introduced. In order to avoid slowly decaying transient motions of the structure due to wave excitation forces, an exponential ramp function is used. The application of a ramp function enables a quick convergence in the time-domain solution of equations of motion. Results of a numerical motion simulation program and the experimental studies are also presented in order to make comparisons. Comparison of the test results with the numerical simulations shows good agreement for heave, roll and pitch motions. The formulations and the computational procedures given in this paper provide useful tools for the investigation of the non-linear dynamic stability characteristics of floating structures in waves for intact, damaged and post-flooding conditions in six-degrees of freedom.     

Identification of non-linear effects in predicting the motion response of an offshore platform

This paper presents the results of an extensive parametric study to investigate various non-linear aspects of the prediction of the large-amplitude motion responses of a semi-submersible. The main objectives of the parametric studies were to investigate the following aspects, which can non-linearly influence the motion responses and which cannot be studied by linear frequency-domain prediction techniques. These aspects are the effects on the motion responses of flooding time and mass; non-linear wave-exciting and rigid-body induced motion (i.e. added mass and damping) forces; non-linear restoring forces; steady wind and current; variation of GM (transverse metacentric height); and the initial position of the semi-submersible. The investigations were carried out for a particular semi-submersible geometry using a numerical simulation technique in the time domain. The simulations were performed for the model during intact, progressive and post-flooding conditions under the combined loading of regular waves, steady wind and current for two different heading angles. This paper is thus intended to provide some insight into the physical effects of the non-linear terms in the equations of motion which are associated with the wave-excitation forces, rigid-body induced motion forces and restoring forces. Since the resulting motion responses could have a steady component as well as the oscillatory one, the force and motion phenomena were also highlighted through the computation of these components.     

Parameter identification of nonlinear roll motion equation for floating structures in irregular waves

In order to predict the roll motion of a floating structure in irregular waves accurately, it is crucial to estimate the unknown damping coefficients and restoring moment coefficients in the nonlinear roll motion equation. In this paper, a parameter identification method based on a combination of random decrement technique and support vector regression (SVR) is proposed to identify the coefficients in the roll motion equation of a floating structure by using the measured roll response in irregular waves. Case studies based on the simulation data and model test data respectively are designed to validate the applicability and validity of the identification method. Firstly, the roll motion of a vessel is simulated by using the known coefficients from literature, and the simulated data are used to identify the coefficients in the roll motion equation. The identified coefficients are compared with the known values to validate the applicability of the identification method. Then the roll motion is predicted by using the identified coefficients. The prediction results are compared with the simulated data, and good agreement is achieved. Secondly, the model test data of a FPSO are used to identify the coefficients in the roll motion equation. Then the random decrement signature of the roll motion is predicted by using the identified coefficients and compared with that obtained from the model test data, and satisfactory agreement is achieved. From this study, it is shown that the identification method can be effectively applied to identify the coefficients in the nonlinear roll motion equation in irregular waves.     

FPSO纵摇运动预报研究

FPSO船体姿态运动(纵摇和横摇)会对FPSO与穿梭油轮的靠泊、FPSO上直升机的起降、海上的补给等作业可能造成严重的影响。如能实现在一定时间内对FPSO船体姿态运动进行预报,则可大大提高这些作业的安全性和高效性。用AR(p)模型拟合FPSO纵摇运动,然后运用AR(p)模型的线性最小方差预报法进行预报,预报实例中用到的数据来自模型试验。结果表明,用时间序列法对FPSO纵摇运动进行极短期预报具有一定的精度和较小的计算量。     

船舶动力定位系统的预测模糊控制

在船舶动力定位中采用预测模糊控制策略,即通过自校正滤波与Ｋａｌｍ ａｎ 滤波得到系统低频运动位置偏差与相应速度的预测值作为模糊控制器的输入,以实现对其在水平面内的运动控制。因为基于系统模型的滤波器输出最终是经模糊化后输入至模糊控制器的,于是可大大降低对系统建模的精度要求,控制器本身具有强的鲁棒性。仿真结果说明了该策略的可行性及良好的控制性能。     

新一代区域海-气-浪耦合台风预报系统

依托国家重点基础研究（973）计划项目"上层海洋对台风的响应和调制机理研究"，中国气象局上海台风研究所联合国家海洋局的相关单位，通过实施近海台风的外场观测科学试验、加强台风边界层（特别是海气相互作用）物理过程诊断分析及参数化方案等的研究，建立并改进了台风强度预报的海-气-浪耦合预报模式系统，并在此基础上发展了台风强度的集合预报技术，在历史典型台风个例和2016-2017年台汛期的业务化测试中表现出良好的预报性能。