基于非对称Archimedean Copula的三变量风浪重现水平分析

采用非对称Archimedean Copula函数与Kendall分布函数分析极端波况下的波高、周期和风速三变量联合概率分布与风险率及其设计分位数,为海岸海洋工程设计和风险评估提供参考依据。以粤东汕尾海域的实测风浪数据为例,使用非对称Gumbel-Hougaard Copula函数计算三变量风浪联合分布的"或"重现期、"且"重现期和二次重现期及其最可能的风浪设计值。主要结论如下:对比不同设计风浪重现期显示,"或"重现期的风险率偏高,"且"重现期的风险率偏低,二次重现期更准确地反映了特定设计频率情况下三变量风浪的风险率;按目前有关规范设计要求的单变量风浪要素设计值已经达到安全标准,按三变量"或"重现期和三变量同频率设计值推算的风浪设计值偏高,以最大可能概率推算的三变量风浪要素的二次重现期设计值可为相关工程安全与风险管理提供新的选择。     

基于多致灾因子相似的热带气旋检索方法研究:以风暴潮-海浪灾害预评估为例

热带气旋引起的风暴潮-海浪灾害成灾频率高、致灾强度大,对我国沿海地区造成的人员和经济损失惨重。预评估阶段需要在灾前对研究区可能造成的损失等进行快速的综合判定。从历史热带气旋中检索出与目标热带气旋位置及各种致灾因子强度相似的热带气旋是快速、准确地预评估风暴潮-海浪灾害的重要方法。面向风暴潮-海浪灾害预评估,提出了一种基于多致灾因子的相似热带气旋检索方法。用于相似检索的致灾因子数据包括:从中国气象局西北太平洋热带气旋最佳路径数据集中提取并经处理得到的1949~2013年影响湛江市的112场热带气旋的路径中心点位置、中心气压、最大风速、最大风速半径及移动速度数据,112场热带气旋的模拟风场、风暴潮及海浪数据。首先,利用相似离度方法对热带气旋进行路径相似性检索;其次,利用最优相似系数方法计算中心气压、最大风速半径、最大风速、移动速度、风场、风暴潮及海浪强度指标的相似系数进行一次检索;然后,根据风场、风暴潮及海浪模拟数据的获取情况,分别基于路径-强度及风场-风暴潮-海浪综合相似性指标进行二次检索;最终给出历史热带气旋的综合相似排序。以2013年尤特热带气旋为例,利用上述方法检索了与其最为相似的5场历史热带气旋。该方法综合考虑了热带气旋路径及多种致灾因子的相似,兼顾了检索的速度及质量,是进行快速、准确的风暴潮-海浪灾害预评估的重要基础。     

Derivation of Parametric Tropical Cyclone Models for Storm Surge Modeling

In this paper, the parametric tropical cyclone models for storm surge modeling are further developed. Instead of tangential wind speed via cyclostrophic balance and radial wind speed using a simple formulation of defection angle, the analytical expressions of tangential and radial wind speed distribution are derived from the governing momentum equations based on the general symmetric pressure distribution of Holland and Fujita. The radius of the maximum wind is estimated by tropical cyclone wind structure which is characterized by the radial extent of special wind speed. The shape parameter in the pressure model is estimated by the data of several tropical cyclones that occurred in the East China Sea. Finally, the Fred cyclone (typhoon 199417) is calculated, and comparisons of the measured and calculated air pressures and wind speed are presented.     

Extreme value statistics for wave run-up on a natural beach

Statistics of wave run-up maxima have been calculated for 149 35-minutes data runs from a natural beach. During the experiment incident wave height varied from 0.4 to 4.0 m, incident wave period from 6 to 16 s, and beach face slope from 0.07 to 0.20. Four extreme statistics were calculated; the maximum run-up height during each run, the 2% exceedence level of shoreline elevation, the 2% exceedence height for individual run-up peaks, and the 2% exceedence level for swash height as determined by the zero-upcrossing method. These statistics were best parameterized when normalized by the incident significant wave height and plotted against the Iribarren number, ξ = β/(H/L₀)^1/2. The swash data (with set-up removed) showed less scatter than total run-up (with set-up included). For Iribarren number greater than 1.5 the run-up was dominated by the incident frequencies, for lower Iribarren number longer period motions dominated the swash. A reasonable value of wave steepness for a fully developed storm sea is 0.025 so that a storm Iribarren number can be estimated as 6.3 times the beach slope. Using this and an offshore design wave height, the included graphs may provide guidance in determining a design run-up height.     

强台风“卡努”过境期间的风和海浪特征分析

南海北部海域夏季台风活动频繁,对海上生产活动和人民生命财产安全造成极大威胁,由于台风路径的不确定性,其中心附近区域的风浪观测资料十分稀少。中国气象局(China Meteorological Administration, CMA)热带气旋最佳路径数据显示2017年10月强台风“卡努”中心经过南海北部陆坡的SF301浮标,该浮标完整记录了台风过境的风浪数据。利用浮标观测资料,分析了强台风“卡努”过境期间的风和海浪特征。观测结果表明,“卡努”经过浮标时,中心气压为959.9 hPa,风速随时间呈双峰分布,前、后眼壁区的10 min平均风速分别为30.2 m/s和24.9 m/s, 1 s极大风速分别为44.2和38.6 m/s。海浪以风浪为主,观测有效波高和最大波高最大值分别为10.8和14.3 m,滞后最大风速30 min,波向和风向变化趋势一致。台风过境期间,有效波高与海面10 m风速接近线性关系,非台风期间二者呈二次多项式关系。海浪无因次波高和周期呈幂指数关系,无论是台风期间还是非台风期间二者关系十分接近Toba提出的3/2指数律。     

Effect of climate change on design wind at the Indian offshore locations

The impact of climate change on design wind speeds corresponding to different return periods at two selected offshore locations in India has been assessed. Extreme daily wind speeds corresponding to various return periods were derived based on the observations made by wave rider buoys during the period 1998–2005. Thereafter, the future climate over the next century was simulated at these locations using the input from the climate model: GCM-CGCM3 corresponding to the A2 scenario. The underlying downscaling model was developed with the help of artificial neural networks and using observed wind as output. The local wind speeds corresponding to these projected wind data were generated for the next century and return period wind speeds were extracted by the distribution fitting. Comparison of design wind speeds derived with and without consideration of future climate showed that the magnitude of the long term wind speed would certainly and significantly increases if the effect of global climate change is incorporated in the analysis. For the two locations considered, the increase in the 100-year wind was found to be varying from 44% to 74%.     

Impact of climate change on dynamic behavior of offshore wind turbine

Global warming is expected to change the wind and wave patterns at a significant level, which may lead to conditions outside current design criteria of monopile supported offshore wind turbine (OWT). This study examines the impact of climate change on the dynamic behavior and future safety of an OWT founded in clay incorporating dynamic soil–structure interaction. A statistical downscaling model is used to generate the time series of future wind speed and wave height at local level. The responses and fatigue life of OWT are estimated for present and future periods and extent of change in design is investigated at offshore location along the west coast of India. Wind speed, wave height, and wave period data are collected from the buoy deployed by Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services and the future climate for the next 30 years is simulated using the general circulation model corresponding to Special Report on Emission Scenarios A1B scenario. The OWT is modeled as Euler–Bernoulli beam and soil–structure interaction is incorporated using nonlinear p-y springs. This study shows that changes in design of OWT are needed due to increased responses owing to the effect of climate change. Fatigue life is found to be decreased because of climate change.     

Simulation of Storm Surges in the Bay of Bengal Using One-Way Coupling Between NMM-WRF and IITD Storm Surge Model

The storm surge associated with severe tropical cyclones (TCs) in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) is a serious concern along the coastal regions of India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Sri Lanka. It is one of the most hazardous elements associated with landfalling TCs other than strong winds and heavy precipitation and about 75% of the casualities in this region are attributed to storm surges. Therefore, it is highly essential to predict the storm surges with greater accuracy at least 2 days in advance for effective evacuation. In the present study, an attempt is made to simulate the storm surges associated with severe TCs in the BoB using one-way coupling of the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model core of Weather Research and Forecasting (NMM-WRF) system with the two-dimensional finite-difference storm surge model developed at the Indian Institute of Technology Delhi (IITD). The NMM-WRF model simulated track, pressure drop, and radius of maximum wind are used to calculate the wind-stress through Jelesnianski wind formulation. The results are compared with the observed/estimated values as provided by the operational/meteorological agencies of India, Bangladesh, and Myanmar. This study suggests that using simulated surface meteorological fields of a high-resolution mesoscale model, the storm surge can be predicted at least 2 days in advance of the actual landfall of TCs with reasonable accuracy. This approach will be helpful in providing disastrous storm warning well in advance in a coastal region, which will help with rapid evacuation from the vulnerable coastal region, relocation as well as protection of valuables, disaster mitigation, and coastal zone management.     

江苏沿海波浪多重嵌套模拟研究

根据24年CCMP风场资料和江苏沿海4个方向(N、NE、E和SE)百年一遇风速,构建西北太平洋、东中国海和江苏沿海上述4个方向的百年一遇风场。首次建立一个基于第三代海浪模型SWAN的自西北太平洋、东中国海至江苏沿海的三重嵌套数值模型,以AVISO卫星观测数据和江苏沿海定点实测数据进行验证。以三个计算域4个方向百年一遇风场为驱动风场,驱动该多重嵌套模型,高精度数值模拟江苏沿海4个方向百年一遇有效波高分布并进行分析。结果表明,江苏沿海辐射沙洲地形对有效波高分布影响显著;E向百年一遇风场作用下海域有效波高最大,NE向次之,N向和SE较小。     

波高周期联合分布四种重现水平对比分析*

基于Gumbel-Hougaard copula、Kendall和生存Kendall函数对比分析波高和周期联合分布的4种重现水平。以位于北卡罗来纳州Duck的美国陆军工程师团FRF (Field Research Facility)实验场观测的波高与周期样本为例, 计算二者联合分布的“或”重现期、“且”重现期、Kendall重现期和生存Kendall重现期及其联合设计值。主要结论如下: 对比设定重现期, 相对于“或”联合重现期, Kendall重现期可更准确地反映波高周期联合分布的风险率; 相对于“且”联合重现期, 生存Kendall重现期可更准确地反映波高周期同时超值情况下的风险率。按目前有关规范设计要求的单变量波高设计值基本达到设计标准, 按两变量“或”重现期和波高周期两变量同频率设计值推算的设计值偏高, 以最大可能概率推算的两变量的Kendall重现期和生存Kendall重现期设计值可为海岸海洋工程安全与风险管理提供新的选择。     

SWAN模型中不同风拖曳力系数对风浪模拟的影响

本文以荷兰哈灵水道海域为实验区域,通过敏感性实验,研究了在14 m/s、31.5 m/s和50 m/s（分别代表一般大风、强热带风暴和强台风的极端条件）定常风速下SWAN模型中不同风拖曳力系数对风浪模拟的影响程度。结果表明,对于近岸浅水区域（水深小于20 m）,风拖曳力系数计算方案的选择对有效波高影响较小,而且当风速增加到一定程度后,波浪破碎成为影响波高值的主要因素;对于深水区域（水深大于30 m）,一般大风条件下风拖曳力系数计算方案的选择对有效波高影响仍然较小,随着风速的继续增大,风拖曳力系数计算方案的选择对有效波高的影响逐渐显著。对于平均周期,风拖曳力系数计算方案的选择和风速的改变对其影响均较小,而由水深变浅导致的波浪破碎对其影响较为显著。根据敏感性实验结果,本文对SWAN模型中风拖曳力系数计算方案的选择做出如下建议:计算近岸浅水区域风浪场或深水区域一般大风条件风浪场时,其风拖曳力系数可以直接采用模型默认选项;而对于深水区域更大风速条件,可首先采用模型默认选项试算,然后结合当地海域实测波浪资料进行修正。     

Comparison of TOPEX/POSEIDON Altimeter Derived Wind Speed and Wave Parameters with Ocean Buoy Data in the North Indian Ocean

Results of comparison exercises carried out between the state-of-the-art TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter-derived ocean surface wind speed and ocean wave parameters (significant wave height and wave period) and those measured by a set of ocean data buoys in the North Indian Ocean are presented in this article. Altimeter-derived significant wave height values exhibited rms deviation as small as ±0.3 m, and surface wind speed of ±1.6 m/s. These results are found consistent with those found for the Pacific Ocean. For estimation of ocean wave period, the spectral moments-based semiempirical approach, earlier applied on GEOSAT data, was extended to TOPEX/POSEIDON. For this purpose, distributions of first four years of TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter data and climatology over the North Indian Ocean were analyzed and a new set of coefficients generated for estimation of wave period. It is shown that wave periods thus estimated from TOPEX/POSEIDON data (for the subsequent two years), when compared with independent data set of ocean data buoys deployed in the North Indian Ocean, exhibit improved accuracy (rms ~ ±1.4 nos) over those determined earlier with GEOSAT data.     

Characteristics of developing waves as a function of atmospheric conditions,water properties,fetch and duration

For any specific wind speed, waves grow in period, height and length as a function of the wind duration and fetch until maximum values are reached, at which point the waves are considered to be fully developed. Although equations and nomograms exist to predict the parameters of developing waves for shorter fetch or duration conditions at different wind speeds, these either do not incorporate important variables such as the air and water temperature, or do not consider the combined effect of fetch and duration. Here, the wind conditions required for a fully developed sea are calculated from maximum wave heights as determined from the wind speed, together with a published growth law based on the friction velocity. This allows the parameters of developing waves to be estimated for any combination of wind velocity, fetch and duration, while also taking account of atmospheric conditions and water properties.     

Prediction of wave parameters by using fuzzy logic approach

The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between wind speed, previous and current wave characteristics. It is expected that such a non-linear relationship includes some uncertainties. A fuzzy inference system employing fuzzy IF–THEN rules has an ability to deal with ill-defined and uncertain systems. Compared with traditional approaches, fuzzy logic is more efficient in linking the multiple inputs to a single output in a non-linear domain. In this paper, a sophisticated intelligent model, based on Takagi–Sugeno (TS) fuzzy modeling principles, was developed to predict the changes in wave characteristics such as significant wave height and zero up-crossing period due to the wind speed. Past measurements of significant wave height values and wind speed variables are used for training the adaptive model and it is then employed to predict the significant wave height amounts for future time intervals such as 1, 3, 6 and 12 h. The verification of the proposed model is achieved through the wave characteristics time series plots and various numerical error criterias. Also the model results were compared with classical Auto Regressive Moving Average with exogenous input (ARMAX) models. For the application of the proposed approach the offshore station located in the Pacific Ocean was used.     

推算波浪多年一遇波高的新方法

采用卫星遥感推算多年一遇波高的新方法，对中国近海多年一遇波高进行推算研究。运用卫星遥感散射计得到的风资料推算了整个渤海区域波浪多年一遇的波高分布。通过与有实测资料4个点推算的结果比较表明：卫星资料和实测计算的误差随着重现期的增大而减小，最大误差百年和50年一遇波高为20cm；而百年和50年一遇波高正是工程中最为关心的，说明运用卫星遥感散射计风资料推算渤海多年一遇波高可行且结果合理。本研究方法为进一步运用和完善卫星遥感资料推算中国近海多年一波高场提供了一条新途径。     

风暴潮对海浪影响的数位研究

采用第三代海浪模式和线性全流风暴潮模式计算封闭海域内风暴潮对风浪的影响。海浪模式中包含水深变化及平均流变化引起的波浪绕射项。计算了不同风速和不同静水深情况下风暴潮引起的风浪波南的变化。计算结果表明：静水深为１０ｍ及风速为３０ｍ／３时，风暴潮引起的风浪波高的相对变化的最大值达３９％；而静水深超过４０ｍ时，即使风速为４０ｍ／ｓ，风暴潮引起的风浪波高的相对变化的最大值小于５％。     

洋山港海域一次冷锋型温带风暴潮特征及各影响因子贡献的对比分析

本文研究了由2020年12月29日至31日强冷锋引起的影响洋山港海域的温带风暴潮过程。通过气象观测数据分析了其天气过程, 并利用FVCOM-SWAVE波浪-风暴潮耦合模式对该过程进行了高分辨率的数值模拟, 同时结合潮位站及浮标站观测数据对模拟结果进行了验证, 分析模拟了波浪、潮流、风暴增减水特征。结果发现, 该次冷锋型温带风暴潮过程主要表现为先短时风暴增水后出现长时间风暴减水的特征, 最大风暴减水可达65~70cm, 其主要诱因包括研究海域气压的快速升高并维持、长时间持续的偏北大风及波流相互作用。相关敏感试验研究了3种因子对风暴增减水位的贡献大小, 发现风暴增水峰值期间风场贡献占比约为90%, 海平面气压场约为5%; 风暴减水峰值期间, 海平面气压场的贡献度约占55%, 风场约占40%, 而波浪的贡献均不足10%。洋山港航道内风暴期间潮流流速最大可达到2.6~2.8m•s^-1, 落潮时为东南向离岸潮流, 涨潮时为西至西北方向的外海潮波传入潮流; 洋山港航道潮流始终是东南或西北向, 此处流速辐合, 是洋山海域流速最高的区域。     

Improving the wind and wave estimation of dual-frequency altimeter JASON1 in Typhoon Shanshan and considering the rain effects

Altimetry data have been widely used in various fiehts of oceanography, including the extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones, typhoons, and hurricanes. The performance of JASON1 in Typhoon Shanshan is assessed by examining the sensor geophysical data record and illustrates how the measured return waveform, significant wave height, and backscatter are all affected by various factors associated with the typhoon, with details by the rain are illustrated. The correction method to maintain accurate wave height and wind speed measurements in Typhoon Shanshan and the results are presented. Furthermore, the additional results of rain rate and typhoon eye diameter can be retrieved. Because of the lack of in-situ measurements of wind, wave, and rain rate at Typhoon Shanshan, results are compared with the forecasted typhoon data and a good agreement is found.     

Estimation of Design Wave Height for the Waters around the Korean Peninsula

Long term wave climate of both extreme wave and operational wave height is essential for planning and designing coastal structures. Since the field wave data for the waters around Korean peninsula is not enough to provide reliable wave statistics, the wave climate information has been generated by means of long-term wave hindcasting using available meteorological data. Basic data base of hindcasted wave parameters such as significant wave height, peak period and direction has been established continuously for the period of 25 years starting from 1979 and for major 106 typhoons for the past 53 years since 1951 for each grid point of the North East Asia Regional Seas with grid size of 18 km. Wind field reanalyzed by European Center for Midrange Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) was used for the simulation of waves for the extratropical storms, while wind field calculated by typhoon wind model with typhoon parameters carefully analyzed using most of the available data was used for the simulation of typhoon waves. Design wave heights for the return period of 10, 20, 30, 50 and 100 years for 16 directions at each grid point have been estimated by means of extreme wave analysis using the wave simulation data. As in conventional methodsi of design criteria estimation, it is assumed that the climate is stationary and the statistics and extreme analysis using the long-term hindcasting data are used in the statistical prediction for the future. The method of extreme statistical analysis in handling the extreme events like typhoon Maemi in 2003 was evaluated for more stable results of design wave height estimation for the return periods of 30–50 years for the cost effective construction of coastal structures.     

Response based design metocean conditions for a permanently moored FPSO during tropical cyclones: Estimation of greenwater risk

Response based analysis (RBA) is used to establish the design metocean conditions (DMCs) of a generic weather-vaning FPSO off the North West Shelf (NWS) of Australia for determining greenwater severity. A vessel heading prediction tool, an essential component of the RBA analysis for weather-vaning vessels, is developed and evaluated by comparing with full-scale measurements from an operating FPSO. Locations at the bow, amidships and the stern of the vessel are found to be susceptible to greenwater risks and the vessel is often exposed to oblique waves during tropical cyclones. Long-term extrapolation is performed to estimate 1 in. N-year return relative wave-vessel motions represented by both the most probable maximum relative wave-vessel motion within a storm r_mp, and the maximum individual relative wave-vessel motion r_Max. It is observed that r_Max ˜ (1.1–1.2) r_mp. The use of r_Max allows for the variability of the short term maxima per storm and also the fact that the peak in response might not come in the most severe sea-state. Given the focus on greenwater rather than wave severity, the slightly larger value of r_Max at a given return period is used for assessment of greenwater risk. The sea-states that lead to r_Max at a 1 in 100 year level are identified and subsequently used for characterising the wave groups causing maximum relative wave-vessel motion at various locations around the vessel. For a given location, the shapes of the wave time histories which give rise to extreme relative wave-vessel motions in a set of design metocean conditions are similar, indicating that a ‘design wave’, derived within the framework of linear wave theory, may be a useful approach to tackle highly nonlinear and complex greenwater overtopping problems.