基于SVM的气候持续法在热带气旋路径预报中的应用试验

本文利用气候持续性因子,分别采用支持向量机法、神经网络法及最小二乘回归法建立西北太平洋地区12、24、36、48h热带气旋路径预报模型.通过1997～2002年的试报.支持向量机法明显优干回归方法和神经网络法,12h的预报水平分别提高了4.97%和2.75%,而且随着预报时效的延长,这种优势越来越明显,4Sh的预报水平提高了11.92%和7.88%.     

遗传算法与神经网络相结合的热带气旋强度预报方法试验

以1960~2001年共41 a的7月和8月西行进入南海海域的热带气旋样本为基础,采用遗传算法与神经网络相结合的方法,进行了热带气旋强度预报模型的预报建模研究.并根据相同的热带气旋个例,将这种遗传-神经网络热带气旋强度预报模型与气候持续法热带气旋强度预报方法进行对比分析,试验预报结果表明,遗传-神经网络方法具有更好的预报能力.     

西北太平洋热带气旋强度统计动力预报的改进模型

利用NCEP再分析资料、T106L19模式产品和热带气旋历史观测资料,设计和筛选气候持续性因子和动力因子,结合主分量因子分析技术,对统计-动力模式进行了改进,开展了西北太平洋热带气旋强度预报技术研究试验。结果表明,对预报因子进行主分量分析,可提高因子的独立性,降低线性回归模型的维数和不稳定性,从而提高了模式对热带气旋强度的实际预报能力。     

利用TRMM资料对热带气旋“威马逊”结构及其降水特征的研究

利用NASA提供的热带测雨卫星(TRMM)资料和NCEP/AVN模式的实况分析场研究了热带气旋“威马逊”(2002)的演变过程、结构和降水特征.对要素场及倾斜对流有效位能诊断分析发现,降水的分布和强度对热带气旋的发展有很好的指示作用.针对MM5的几种积云参数化方案进行了数值试验,初步研究了各方案在热带气旋定量降水预报(QPF)中的作用.     

基于HY-2B散射计的热带气旋定位定强研究

热带气旋灾害是最严重的自然灾害之一,其影响程度主要取决于气旋的中心位置和强度。提高热带气旋中心位置及强度监测水平对于改进热带气旋分析预报精度、减少热带气旋的灾害影响具有重要意义。本文以HY-2B散射计为例,分析了散射计风场散度和旋度的分布特征,发现气旋中心附近风场的散度或旋度具有显著的分布规律,由此提出了一种新的气旋中心定位方法,并与传统的直接定位法进行比较研究。在此基础上,进一步提出了热带气旋风圈大小估计的方法,用于评估气旋的强度。最后,利用台风“范斯高”和“博罗依”的遥感数据对文中的方法进行验证,结果表明,使用新方法定位的气旋中心位置与最佳路径之间的差异小于20 km,散射计17 m/s风圈大小的变化一定程度上反映了气旋的发展规律。     

海洋飞沫对热带气旋边界层结构的影响

将海洋飞沫参数化引入到一个高分辨率、非静力中尺度WRF模式中,对0908号热带气旋Morakot进行数值模拟,探讨了海洋飞沫对热带气旋Morakot边界层结构和强度的影响。模拟结果表明:采用新参数化后,对热带气旋Morakot的强度预报有改进,但对热带气旋移动路径改进不大;其次,通过对边界层过程的改进,使得眼墙区域的平均径向风速、切向风速、温度、相对湿度、垂直风速、热通量,降水等物理量均有增强,各物理量的贡献对热带气旋Morakot强度和结构变化的影响十分重要。     

黄渤海下垫面对爆发性气旋影响的数值模拟分析

利用天津WRF中尺度数值预报业务模式,对2013年11月24—25日一次爆发性气旋过程进行数值模拟,模拟方案分别为:控制实验(ctrl)、将整体黄渤海下垫面变为陆地实验(land)、将122°E以西的渤海海洋下垫面变为陆地实验(land-122)、将122°E以东到黄海中部的海洋下垫面变为陆地实验(land+122)。结果表明:将黄渤海海域全部转换成陆地后,气旋中心海平面气压场最大值升高5 hPa。10 m风场减弱最大值出现在气旋中心,可达19 m/s,下垫面对气旋的影响主要在强度和风力大小的变化。黄海海域风力减小普遍超过10 m/s。将122°E西部的渤海转换成陆地后,渤海海域风速最大值减小了12 m/s。黄海海域的气旋中心部分风力有微弱变化,气旋中心风力稍有增大,最大增加了4 m/s。将122°E东部的黄海转换成陆地后,海平面气压场的变化与land实验接近,10 m风场在黄海南部风力略高于land实验。     

基于组件式GIS的南海热带气旋风、浪场分析系统

将现有的计算模型与组件式GIS(地理信息系统)进行有效地整合,建立一个以热带气旋路径和强度的预报结果为主要输入参数的具备可视化功能的风、浪场模型,并形成以GIS为平台的、具有快速诊断和分析能力的决策分析系统.阐述了热带气旋风、浪场的计算模型,解决了将其与组件式GIS集成到应用系统的关键技术.     

20世纪50年代以来登陆中国热带气旋的变化特征分析

基于1951—2017年西北太平洋热带气旋路径资料,利用趋势分析、R/S分析以及周期分析等方法对近67年来登陆中国热带气旋的个数、频次、强度以及登陆位置等热带气旋活动特征进行深入分析,结果表明:(1)近67年登陆中国热带气旋的个数和频次均呈下降趋势,下降幅度分别为0.003个/a和0.008次/a,但变化趋势均不显著,未来一段时期热带气旋登陆个数、频次将呈缓慢增加趋势。(2) 6—10月是热带气旋发生和登陆的高频期,其中,8月份热带气旋的发生次数和登陆中国的次数均最多。(3)历年最低中心气压、平均中心气压均呈增加趋势,且最低中心气压通过了M-K显著性检验;热带气旋登陆强度总体呈减弱趋势,且未来一段时期将继续呈减弱趋势,但高强度热带气旋呈显著增加趋势。(4)广东、台湾、海南、福建和浙江是热带气旋的主要登陆地;热带气旋的登陆位置呈向东、向北偏移趋势,且未来时期该偏移趋势仍将持续。利用热带气旋路径数据分析1951—2017年登陆中国热带气旋的数量、强度等变化,旨在深入认识影响中国的热带气旋活动的特征及规律,为热带气旋的预报、预警及防灾减灾工作等提供科学参考。     

台风“妮妲”风暴潮与近岸浪的数值模拟与预报

利用一套基于非结构网格的高分辨率风暴潮-近岸浪耦合模型(ADCIRC-SWAN),选取2016年第4号热带气旋"Nida"开展针对珠江口风暴潮、近岸浪的数值模拟与预报。结果表明:选取的模型能够较好的模拟风暴潮与近岸浪,模拟结果与实况较为吻合。24 h预报、12 h预报最大增水平均相对误差为72.42%和38.54%;24 h、12 h预报最大有效波高平均相对误差为34.55%和16.3%。可以看出由于台风预报路径与实况不同,导致风暴潮和近岸浪预报与实况有较大差异,且近岸浪误差明显小于风暴潮。表明与海浪相比,风暴潮预报与台风移动路径相关性更高,在风暴潮预报中值得密切关注。     

四种重金属对刺参幼参的急性致毒效应

采用静水试验法,在水温18.5℃~20℃的条件下,用Cu2 ,Zn2 ,Cd2 和Cr6 四种重金属对刺参幼参进行了单一急性毒性试验。结果表明:Cu2 对刺参幼参的24h,48h,72h和96hLC50分别为0.299,0.176,0.133和0.120mg/L;Zn2 的24h,48h,72h和96hLC50分别为6.700,3.624,2.577和1.951mg/L;Cd2 的24h,48h和72hLC50分别为4.246,2.588和2.137mg/L;Cr6 的24h,48h和72hLC50分别为31.974,7.499和3.808mg/L;Cu2 ,Zn2 ,Cd2 和Cr6 对刺参幼参的安全浓度分别为0.018,0.362,0.259和0.750mg/L。四种重金属对刺参幼参的毒性大小依次为Cu2 >Cd2 >Zn2 >Cr6 。     

Tracing dissolved organic matter cycling in the eastern boundary of the temperate North Atlantic using absorption and fluorescence spectroscopy

Apparent oxygen utilization (AOU), dissolved organic carbon (DOC), coloured dissolved organic matter (CDOM) absorption spectra, and CDOM fluorescence characteristic of aromatic amino acids (excitation/emission 280 nm/320 nm; F(280/320)) and marine-humic like substances (320 nm/410 nm; F(320/410)) were measured in full depth during a cruise in the temperate Eastern North Atlantic (ENA). An optimum multi-parameter (OMP) inverse method was run to calculate water mass proportion-weighted average (archetypal) concentrations of these chemical parameters for all water masses and samples. Archetypal concentrations retain the variability due to water mass mixing and basin scale mineralization from the water mass formation sites to the study area. Conversely, the difference between measured and archetypal concentrations, retain the variability due to dissimilarities in mineralization processes within the study area. Our analysis indicates that DOC supported 26±3% of the AOU in the dark temperate ENA and that basin scale processes occurring at and from the formation area of the water masses explained 63% of the total DOC variability. Our data also suggests that DOC remineralized at the basin scale was of lower molecular weight, and with a lower proportion of fluorescent aromatic amino acids than found within the study area. The relationship between the absorption coefficient at 254 nm (a_CDOM(254)) and AOU indicates that a_CDOM(254) was consumed during organic matter remineralization in the dark ocean, with 55% of the variability being explained by basin scale processes. The relationships of F(320/410) with AOU and DOC confirmed that marine humic-like substances are produced by microbial degradation processes, at a rate of 6.1±0.9×10⁻³ mg equivalents of QS mol AOU⁻¹. Our results also indicate that basin-scale remineralization processes account for 85% of the total variability of F(320/410), emphasizing that large scale processes control the formation of humic-like substance in the dark ENA.     

海洋中β-二甲基巯基丙酸内盐降解过程的研究进展

二甲基硫(DMS)是海水中一种最重要的、含量最丰富的还原态挥发性生源有机硫化物,前体β-二甲基巯基丙酸内盐(DMSP)的降解过程受各种因素影响。其中主要包括温度、DMSP的浓度、氧气、盐度、酸度、颗粒粒度、藻类生长期、季节变化、氧化压力、抑制剂等。它们均与DMSP降解速率呈一定的函数关系,并对DMSP的降解产物产生影响。藻类是DMSP的主要来源,因此着重讨论了温度、盐度、酸度等对不同浮游植物细胞内DMSP与DMS生物生产和转化过程的影响。结合海洋硫循环的研究现状和海洋化学发展的趋势,探究了用颗粒态DMSP与Chla的比率来量化碳和硫通量的方法及DMSP裂解酶活性的检验技术。大气中CO2压力持续增加导致的海洋酸化对藻类中DMSP降解过程的影响也是进一步研究的重点。     

Ballast water management in Canada: A historical perspective and implications for the future

Non-indigenous species (NIS) can create significant risks when introduced to foreign ecosystems. One of the many vectors facilitating the global transport of NIS is ballast water, and as commercial shipping increases so does the threat of ballast water-mediated introductions. Despite Canadian regulations, consistent with international guidelines put forth by the International Maritime Organization in the early 1990s, ballast water remains a potential vector for the introduction of many NIS to Canadian marine ecosystems: there have been no new introductions in the Laurentian Great Lakes Region since 2006, yet marine ecosystems continue to see the introduction and establishment of NIS. This paper details and analyzes the development of Canadian ballast water management (BWM), in the context of marine ecosystems, and identifies issues therein. BWM in Canada has a number of management gaps that have persisted since large-scale BWM began in the late 1980s. These include BWM exemptions for vessels not exiting the North American continental shelf, and limitations of effectiveness of mid-ocean exchange as the predominant management method in marine ecosystems. In addition, ballast water regulations for the Canadian Arctic may require additional consideration as the Arctic will likely continue to see an increase in both warming and commercial shipping in the future, thereby increasing the potential risk of NIS. In order to adequately protect all Canadian marine ecosystems, it is recommended that the current BWM regime: fill gaps in management to help prevent further introduction and spread of NIS; focus equally on both marine and freshwater regions, and; look to other aggressive BWM strategies such as those being developed by the state of California.     

Seabed Ground Improvement in Coastal Reclamation Area by Heavy Tamping After Rockfilling Displacement

Considering the characteristics of seabed ground in coastal reclamation area, ultra soft clay improvement method by heavy tamping after rockfilling displacement was proposed combined with a case study. The improvement mechanisms of the method can primarily be attributed to rockfilling displacement (RD), dynamic compaction (DC), dynamic replacement (DR) and dynamic replacement and mixing (DRM). For the case study given in this article, heavy tamping construction program was proposed based on field pilot tests. Furthermore, the effectiveness of the proposed ground improvement method was verified through in situ plate load test, sand fill test and the analyses of observed settlement data. Thus, the method of heavy tamping after rockfilling displacement is applicable for the improvement of seabed ground in coastal reclamation area. It is proposed for similar projects that heavy tamping of fills may be performed by layers and correspondingly tamping energy increased to further enhance the improvement effect of DC, DR and DRM. In addition, delayed improvement effect or time effect of soil mass after heavy tamping is still an issue to be further studied.     

Sources and implications of particulate organic matter from a small tropical river——Zuari River,India

Transitional ecosystems,estuaries and the coastal seas,are distinctively affected by natural and anthropogenic factors.Organic matter(OM)originating from terrestrial sources is exported by rivers and forms a key component of the global biogeochemical cycles.Most previous studies focused on the bulk biochemical and anthropogenic aspects affecting these ecosystems.In the present study,we examined the sources and fate of OM entrained within suspended particulate matter(SPM)of the Zuari River and its estuary,west coast of India.Besides using amino acid(AA)enantiomers(L-and D-forms)as biomarkers,other bulk biochemical parameters viz.particulate organic carbon(POC),δ13C,particulate nitrogen(PN),δ15N and chlorophyll a were analyzed.Surprisingly no significant temporal variations were observed in the parameters analyzed;nonetheless,salinity,POC,δ13C,PN,δ15N,glutamic acid,serine,alanine,tyrosine,leucine and D-aspartic acid exhibited significant spatial variability suggesting source differentiation.The POC content displayed weak temporal variability with low values observed during the post-monsoon season attributed to inputs from mixed sources.Estuarine samples were less depleted than the riverine samples suggesting contributions from marine plankton in addition to contributions from river plankton and terrestrial C3 plants detritus.Labile OM was observed during the monsoon and post-monsoon seasons in the estuarine region.More degraded OM was noticed during the pre-monsoon season.Principal component analysis was used to ascertain the sources and factors influencing OM.Principally five factors were extracted explaining 84.52%of the total variance.The first component accounted for 27.10%of the variance suggesting the dominance of tidal influence whereas,the second component accounted for heterotrophic bacteria and their remnants associated with the particulate matter,contributing primarily to the AA pool.Based on this study we ascertained the role of the estuarine turbidity maximum(ETM)controlling the sources of POM and its implications to small tropical rivers.Thus,changes in temporal and regional settings are more likely to affect the natural biogeochemical cycles of small tropical rivers.     

莱州湾海域水体中有机氯农药和多氯联苯的浓度水平和分布特征

以固相萃取/气相色谱法测定了莱州湾海域水体中22种有机氯农药和多氯联苯类化合物的浓度水平和分布特征。结果表明,莱州湾海域表层水体中有机氯农药浓度范围为N.D.~32.7ng/L,底层水中的浓度范围为N.D.~11.7ng/L。在该海域水体中共检出有机氯农药3种,β-666是水体中主要的有机氯农药污染物。多氯联苯类在底层水样中检出2种,总浓度范围在4.5~27.7ng/L之间。该海域有机氯农药和多氯联苯的分布特征是近岸高,离岸低,由近岸向湾外延伸方向依次递减。并对莱州湾表层水中总有机氯农药与海水盐度、氯度、溶解氧和pH间的关系作了初步探讨,得出总有机氯农药与盐度、氯度间有一定的相关关系,相关系数均为0.59。方法测定5种有机氯农药化合物的空白加标回收率为97.3%~126.0%,相对标准偏差为2.8%~8.6%;测定5种多氯联苯类化合物的空白加标回收率为88.6%~151.8%,相对标准偏差为6.7%~10.4%。     

空间信息系统原理(三)数字高程模型及其数据结构

简要介绍了DTM的提出和应用情况，并对数字地面模型(DTM)、数字高程模型(DEM或DHM)、数字地形模型(DGM)等三个概念进行了论述，说明了它们的区别和联系，详细论述了离散点、不规则三角形、等高线、断面线和规则格网等几种数字高程模型的数据结构，并对不同数据结构的数字地面模型的特征进行了比较。     

Material selection for the gas containment system of a compressed natural gas carrier fleet

In this work, the possible exploitation of fiber-reinforced composites in the context of maritime transportation of compressed natural gas (CNG) is investigated. In addition to a more conventional steel configuration, two different fiber materials, carbon and glass, are considered as construction materials for pressure vessels (PVs) to be stored on board ships, with thickness optimized by FEM analysis.The considered scenario is represented by the transportation of CNG from an offshore well to a terminal on shore. Fleets of ships carrying CNG in pressure vessels manufactured with the investigated materials are generated by means of a ship synthesis model (SSM) software and compared on the basis of technical and economical indicators.The choice of the construction material influences considerably the weight of the PVs, which represent a major item of total ship weight and reflects directly on the general transport performances in terms of resistance, seakeeping and reliability in the service. On the other hand, capital as well as operating expenditures are considerably affected by the choice. When exploring the design space, the ship synthesis model is able, at a preliminary stage of the design, to account for the various technical and economical aspects, their implications and relationships. Results are presented of computations carried out in a specific case, identified by the annual gas production and other characteristics of the well terminal and a cruising route for the ships. The comparison is carried out on the basis of the cost per transported unit of gas and of the percentage of success in the transportation process. The computations show that the choice of the PV material has a key influence on the results in terms of optimal number, dimensions and speed of the ships.     

基于EMD与神经网络的机械故障诊断技术

经验模式分解 (EMD)是分析非线性、非平稳信号的有力工具 ,它将信号分解为突出了原信号的不同时间尺度的局部特征信息的内在模函数 (IMF)分量。本文通过将各 IMF分量输入到 BP网络中进行训练学习和故障诊断 ,比直接输入原信号可以提高 BP网络对故障诊断的准确率 ,而且减少了训练时间。