An Intelligent Method for Structural Reliability Analysis Based on Response Surface

As water depth increases, the structural safety and reliability of a system become more and more important and challenging. Therefore, the structural reliability method must be applied in ocean engineering design such as offshore platform design. If the performance function is known in structural reliability analysis, the first-order second-moment method is often used. If the performance function could not be definitely expressed, the response surface method is always used because it has a very clear train of thought and simple progranuning. However, the traditional response surface method fits the response surface of quadratic polynomials where the problem of accuracy could not be solved, because the true limit state surface can be fitted well only in the area near the checking point. In this paper, an intelligent computing method based on the whole response surface is proposed, which can be used for the situation where the performance function could not be definitely expressed in structural reliability analysis. In this method, a response surface of the fuzzy noural network for the whole area should be constructed first, and then the structural reliability can be calculated by the genetic algorithm. In the proposed method, all the sample points for the training network come from the whole area, so the true limit state surface in the whole area can be fitted. Through calculational examples and comparative analysis, it can be known that the proposed method is much better than the traditional response surface method of quadratic polynomials, because, the amount of calculation of finite element analysis is largely reduced, the accuracy of calculation is improved, and the true limit state surface can be fitted very well in the whole area. So, the method proposed in this paper is suitable for engineering application.     

Mathematical analysis of long-wave breaking on open channels with bottom friction

In this paper we study the breaking of long waves propagating along an open channel with linear friction on the bottom. The equations governing the wave propagation consist of a pair of first-order nonlinear hyperbolic partial differential equations (PDEs). We first transformed the PDEs into a pair of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) along the characteristic directions by means of a pair of Riemann invariants. By analyzing the ODEs, we found that the breaking of waves can be identified by the singularity of the derivative of the Riemann invariants. Thus, we derived an analytical solution for the derivative of the Riemann invariants. Then, a breaking criterion and an analytical formula for the estimation of breaking time were developed and validated through numerical experiments. It is also shown in the paper that the present model includes the previous model neglecting bottom friction as a special case.     

Time-dependence of salinity in monsoonal estuaries

The theories and classification schemes commonly used for understanding estuarine dynamics often refer to a steady state of the estuary in which the salinity field is time-independent. In this state salinity-ingress into the estuary due to different processes (diffusion, gravity current formation, impact of tidal asymmetries, etc.) is balanced by salinity-egress induced by runoff. Here we point out that the salinity field of the estuaries that are located on the coasts of the Indian subcontinent and come under the influence of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) is never in a steady state. We refer to such estuaries as “monsoonal estuaries”, an example of which is the Mandovi estuary located on the west coast of India. We describe the annual cycle of the salinity field in this estuary and conclude that the essential unsteadiness of the salinity field arises from two features of the runoff into it. First, most of the runoff occurs as a series of episodes of highs and lulls spread over about 4 months of the wet summer monsoon. Second, the total runoff is large, well over an order of magnitude larger than the estuarine volume. We define two parameters to represent these two features, and show that they can be used to distinguish the monsoonal estuaries from others.     

Weak and strong constraint data assimilation in the inverse Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS): Development and application for a baroclinic coastal upwelling system

We describe the development and preliminary application of the inverse Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), a four dimensional variational (4DVAR) data assimilation system for high-resolution basin-wide and coastal oceanic flows. Inverse ROMS makes use of the recently developed perturbation tangent linear (TL), representer tangent linear (RP) and adjoint (AD) models to implement an indirect representer-based generalized inverse modeling system. This modeling framework is modular. The TL, RP and AD models are used as stand-alone sub-models within the Inverse Ocean Modeling (IOM) system described in [Chua, B.S., Bennett, A.F., 2001. An inverse ocean modeling system. Ocean Modell. 3, 137–165.]. The system allows the assimilation of a wide range of observation types and uses an iterative algorithm to solve nonlinear assimilation problems. The assimilation is performed either under the perfect model assumption (strong constraint) or by also allowing for errors in the model dynamics (weak constraints). For the weak constraint case the TL and RP models are modified to include additional forcing terms on the right hand side of the model equations. These terms are needed to account for errors in the model dynamics.Inverse ROMS is tested in a realistic 3D baroclinic upwelling system with complex bottom topography, characterized by strong mesoscale eddy variability. We assimilate synthetic data for upper ocean (0–450 m) temperatures and currents over a period of 10 days using both a high resolution and a spatially and temporally aliased sampling array. During the assimilation period the flow field undergoes substantial changes from the initial state. This allows the inverse solution to extract the dynamically active information from the synthetic observations and improve the trajectory of the model state beyond the assimilation window. Both the strong and weak constraint assimilation experiments show forecast skill greater than persistence and climatology during the 10–20 days after the last observation is assimilated.Further investigation in the functional form of the model error covariance and in the use of the representer tangent linear model may lead to improvement in the forecast skill.     

Reef fisheries management in Kenya: Preliminary approach using the driver–pressure–state–impacts–response (DPSIR) scheme of indicators

This paper reviews the present state of reef fishing activities in Kenya and the tropics using the driver–pressure–state–impacts–response (DPSIR) framework. It identifies appropriate indicators that would evaluate the problem of overfishing and the use of destructive fishing gear, and discusses policy considerations for the Kenyan small-scale fishery. We conclude that the DPSIR framework works well at simplifying the complexity of reef fisheries management and serves to inform policy makers, scientists and general public on the relevance of indicators to monitor changes in the status of reefs.     

不同时空格式在求解污染物对流扩散方程中的应用

为了研究污染物对流扩散方程中不同时空格式的适用性,针对对流扩散方程的一维﹑二维和三维3种情况,分别建立了预报-校正的有限差分数值模型。在时间步进格式上分别采用了Crank-Nicolson格式或混合4阶Adams-Bashforth-Moulton格式,对对流项分别采用2阶精度或4阶精度,对扩散项采用了2阶精度。利用建立的数值模型求解了经典的污染物浓度场对流扩散,通过数值解与解析解的比较讨论了不同时空格式对数值模型计算结果的影响。结果表明:对空间一次导数采用4阶精度可以避免采用2阶精度带来的误差。采用混合4阶Adams-Bashforth-Moulton格式或Crank-Nicolson格式数值计算结果均与解析解吻合程度较好,但对于数组为[40,40,40]的三维对流扩散问题,前者比后者省时20.7%。     

Analysis of Phase Error Effects on Stripmap SAS

It is often of interest to consider how uncompensated platform motion can degrade the ideal point scatterer response (PSR) of a synthetic aperture sonar (SAS). This information can be used to shape the design of the sonar itself as well as that of the platform carrying it. Also, knowledge of how certain types of motion affect a SAS image can reduce the time spent in troubleshooting motion estimation and compensation schemes. In the field of spotlight-mode synthetic aperture radar (SAR), the effects of phase errors across the synthetic aperture are well documented (for example, Chapter 5 of Carrara , 1995). The counterpart problem for the stripmap mode is less well developed in the literature. This paper explores the effects of uncompensated phase errors on stripmap imagery and shows that, under certain conditions, they are similar to those for spotlight mode processing.      

Horizontal Slow Oscillation of a Moored Tanker and Numerical Method of Hopf-Bifurcation

- In this paper, a six-order nonlinear dynamic model with three degrees of freedom is presented for the study of the "fishtail" motion of a Single Point Mooring System. The effect of parameter variations on the equilibrium state of the system is analized. In order to study the stability of the equilibrium state, the mooring-line length / is chosen as a bifurcation parameter, so that all eigenvalues of the Jacobian matrix under different parameters can be worked out, and then the Hopf-bifurcation point can be found . Finally, the Hopf-bifurcation periodic solution of the system is computed.     

An updated Lagrangian finite element formulation for large displacement dynamic analysis of three-dimensional flexible riser structures

An updated Lagrangian finite element formulation of a three-dimensional annular section beam element is presented for large displacement and large rotation dynamic analyses of flexible riser structures. In this formulation a new linearization method is used to avoid inaccuracies normally associated with other linearization schemes. The effects of buoyancy force as well as steady state current loading are considered in the finite element solution for riser structures response. The formulation has been implemented in a nonlinear finite element code and the results are compared with those obtained from other schemes reported in the literature.     

简易平台新型安装方式

控制平台工程投资对提高海上边际油田开发的经济效益起着举足轻重的作用,其中安装费约占平台工程投资的50％。因此,就要求尽可能节省安装费用和工期,从而促使采用不同的平台安装方案。结合国际上不同结构型式的简易平台,分别对采用小型起重船安装、采用钻井平台安装和自主安装三种方式的技术特点进行分析和比较,并简要介绍了一种结合这三种安装方支优点的新型平台（SSF）。     

Impacts of Kelvin wave forcing in the Peru Humboldt Current system: Scenarios of spatial reorganizations from physics to fishers

Because climate change challenges the sustainability of important fish populations and the fisheries they support, we need to understand how large scale climatic forcing affects the functioning of marine ecosystems. In the Humboldt Current system (HCS), a main driver of climatic variability is coastally-trapped Kelvin waves (KWs), themselves originating as oceanic equatorial KWs. Here we (i) describe the spatial reorganizations of living organisms in the Humboldt coastal system as affected by oceanic KWs forcing, (ii) quantify the strength of the interactions between the physical and biological component dynamics of the system, (iii) formulate hypotheses on the processes which drive the redistributions of the organisms, and (iv) build scenarios of space occupation in the HCS under varying KW forcing. To address these questions we explore, through bivariate lagged correlations and multivariate statistics, the relationships between time series of oceanic KW amplitude (TAO mooring data and model-resolved baroclinic modes) and coastal Peruvian oceanographic data (SST, coastal upwelled waters extent), anchoveta spatial distribution (mean distance to the coast, spatial concentration of the biomass, mean depth of the schools), and fishing fleet statistics (trip duration, searching duration, number of fishing sets and catch per trip, features of the foraging trajectory as observed by satellite vessel monitoring system). Data sets span all or part of January 1983 to September 2006. The results show that the effects of oceanic KW forcing are significant in all the components of the coastal ecosystem, from oceanography to the behaviour of the top predators – fishers. This result provides evidence for a bottom-up transfer of the behaviours and spatial stucturing through the ecosystem. We propose that contrasting scenarios develop during the passage of upwelling versus downwelling KWs. From a predictive point of view, we show that KW amplitudes observed in the mid-Pacific can be used to forecast which system state will dominate the HCS over the next 2–6 months. Such predictions should be integrated in the Peruvian adaptive fishery management.     

The wind-field structure in a stably stratified atmospheric boundary layer over a rough surface

Both wind turning with height and ageostrophic flow in a stably stratified atmospheric boundary layer are analyzed using a three-parameter turbulence model. For a quasi-steady state of the boundary layer, the cross-isobaric flow is determined only by turbulent stress at the surface in the direction of geostrophic wind. The “operative” prediction models, in which the first-order turbulence closure schemes are used, tend to overestimate the boundary-layer depth and underestimate the angle between the surface and geostrophic winds when compared to “research” models (schemes of high-level turbulence closure). The true value of the angle between the surface and geostrophic winds is significant for the presentation of a large-scale flow. A nocturnal low-level jet is a mesoscale phenomenon reflected in data obtained from measurements in a stably stratified atmospheric boundary layer. It is found that such jets are of great importance in transporting humidity, momentum, and air pollution. In this study, the difference between jet flows over a homogeneous underlying surface and over a spatially localized large-scale aerodynamic roughness is shown.     

荷载变量相关下直立式防波堤的可靠度

为了探讨独立或相关荷载变量对结构可靠指标(β)值的影响,利用广义随机空间极限状态曲面上任一点处切平面法线来确定可靠指标,从而将在欧洲通用的确定直立式防波堤可靠指标的Hasofer和Lind方法推广至适用于波浪水平力与浮托力之间相关的情况.对一座直立堤实例的核算表明,在变量相关情况下采用改进的JC法或推广的HL法得出可靠指标值符合良好,而荷载相关时的可靠指标值则明显低于假定荷载独立时的结果.     

海洋热能的利用

海洋热能是一种重要的可再生能源,对其进行开发利用是解决当前人类所面临的能源短缺和由于矿物燃料燃烧和大量使用空调所造成的环境效应的有效途径。文章综述了海洋热能利用的3个领域：海洋温差发电、海水冷却和海水源空调,介绍了几种利用方式的现状、优缺点及其应用前景。重点对海水作为空调热源的可行性进行分析和讨论,在对空调系统进行yong分析的基础上,针对间接换热和热泵方式的缺点,提出了两种高效的节能环保海水空调的应用方案,即海水直接换热供冷供热和热泵 直接换热方案。     

A simple shaker table for seismometer calibration

A unique and simple shaker table (shake table or shaking table), designed, constructed, and installed at the Hawaii Institute of Geophysics, has proven to be a valuable aid in testing and calibrating short period seismometers, as well as ocean bottom and ocean sub-bottom seismometer/tilt meter packages. It consists of a platform suspended in a stairwell by a single elastic cord (10 m extended length) driven by GeoSpace HS-10 geophones. Platform motion is monitored by orthogonal reference geophones and tilt meters. The relatively low natural periods of the platform, about 1.9 sec vertical and 6.5 sec horizontal, provide sufficient isolation from local vibrations that calibration can be made near operational amplitudes. Vertical or horizontal driver geophones can be driven by a commercial signal generator or white noise generator, or from magnetic tape output. The table can also be tilted with respect to the drivers to determine tilt tolerances and to calibrate tilt meters. A Hewlett-Packard 3582-A spectrum analyzer, used to analyze both reference and output signals, provides near real-time system cabibration and is an efficient means for investigating parasitic system resonances. The analyzer can also provide a white noise signal source to the driver geophones.Hawaii Institute of Geophysics Contribution 1443.     

Application of Two Turbulence Closure Schemes in the Modelling of Tidal Currents and Salinity in the Hooghly Estuary

This paper has two purposes. The first is to study the circulation and salinity in Hooghly Estuary, along the east coast of India and the second is to compare the performance of two turbulence closure schemes by modelling it. A breadth averaged numerical model using a sigma co-ordinate system in the vertical is briefly described. Vertical diffusion of momentum and salt are parameterized by a simple first-order turbulent closure or by a one equation model for turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) which uses a specified mixing length. The results are compared with the available neap and spring tide observations along the estuary for both low and high discharge periods.The computed elevations and currents are in reasonable agreement with the observations showing no major differences in vertical current profiles by both the turbulent schemes. However, there is a slight under-prediction of bottom currents. The salinity profiles predicted by TKE model show better matching with observations. Statistical tests are also conducted to study the comparative performance of the turbulent closure schemes. The maintenance of two layer structure in residual currents and salt variability are also studied by using the model.     

Estuarine classification and response to nitrogen loading: Insights from simple ecological models

Estuaries exhibit a large range in their responses to nitrogen loadings determined in part by characteristics of the driver, such as magnitude and frequency, but also by such intrinsic characteristics as physical/chemical factors (e.g., depth, volume, hypsometry, salinity, turbidity) and biological factors (e.g., nature of ecological communities, trophic interactions). To address the richness of estuarine response to driver variables, the aim ultimately is to establish a simple estuarine classification scheme, beginning with a river-dominated subset of estuarine systems and focusing on the role of water residence time in the estuary. Residence time (or flushing time) is related to other drivers (streamflow, nutrient, and sediment loads) and drives much of the biological response of estuaries because of flushing effects on plankton, temperature, nutrients, and light. Toward this goal, nutrient–phytoplankton–zooplankton (NPZ) models have been used to examine a range of subjects including effects of nutrient limitation and zooplankton predation on phytoplankton dynamics and fish predation. This class of model can admit a wide range of behavior, including multiple steady-states and oscillatory behavior. The NPZ equations include terms for nutrient recycling, phytoplankton settling, benthic regeneration, and zooplankton mortality. Analysis of the equations suggests that both the nature of nitrogen loading (i.e., whether it is correlated with discharge or independent of it) and residence time are critical in determining the steady-state response of the system.     

Multivariable self-tuning autopilots for autonomous and remotelyoperated underwater vehicles

The effectiveness of subsea intervention has been found to be dependent upon the capability of an autonomous underwater vehicle's (AUV's) or remotely operated underwater vehicle's (ROV's) auto-positioning system. However, these vessel's dynamics vary considerably with operating condition, and are strongly coupled; they are expensive and difficult to derive, theoretically or through conventional testing, making the design of conventional autopilots difficult to achieve. Multi-input-multi-output self-tuning controllers offer a possible solution. Two such schemes are presented. The first is an implicit linear quadratic online, self-tuning controller, and the other uses a robust control law based on a first-order approximation of the open-loop dynamics and online recursive identification. The controllers' performance is evaluated by examining their behavior when controlling a comprehensive nonlinear simulation of an ROV and its navigation system. An interesting offshoot of this study is the application of recursive system identification techniques to the derivation of ROV models from data gathered from the trials; the potential advantages of this method are discussed     

流速逆变张量隐式求解方法及其在航道港池流场计算中的应用

运用高分辨率的边界适应网格进行流体动力学数值计算时,如何提高计算稳定性和减少计算量成为数值求解的关键性问题.在非正交的边界适应坐标系中,每个动量方程中同时出现了两个交叉方向的水位偏导数项,给隐式求解带来困难,而显式格式下的时间步长由于受与空间步长有关的Courant-Friedrichs-Lewy条件限制,计算量成倍增加.本文从广义曲线坐标系下浅海动力学方程组出发,导出了流速的逆变张量所满足的动量方程组,使方程中的水位偏导数项变成了沿某一协变基向量方向占优的形式,方便地采用了交替方向隐式差分格式,从而提高了计算稳定性并减小了计算量.本文通过对澳门海域航道和港池中流场的计算,证实了该模式是一种进行高分辩率数值计算的有效方法.     

Asynchronous data assimilation with the EnKF

This study revisits the problem of assimilation of asynchronous observations, or four-dimensional data assimilation, with the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). We show that for a system with perfect model and linear dynamics the ensemble Kalman smoother (EnKS) provides a simple and efficient solution for the problem: one just needs to use the ensemble observations (that is, the forecast observations for each ensemble member) from the time of observation during the update, for each assimilated observation. This recipe can be used for assimilating both past and future data; in the context of assimilating generic asynchronous observations we refer to it as the asynchronous EnKF. The asynchronous EnKF is essentially equivalent to the four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4D-Var). It requires only one forward integration of the system to obtain and store the data necessary for the analysis, and therefore is feasible for large-scale applications. Unlike 4D-Var, the asynchronous EnKF requires no tangent linear or adjoint model.