气候可行性论证工作浅析

根据建设项目需要和气候可行性论证发展特点,提出了气候可行性论证的指导原则及要求,从工程建设的合理布局和保护气候环境的基点出发,对气候可行性论证的范围、内容,以及气候可行性论证分析与评价进行了探讨。     

输气管道工程乌兰察布压气站雷电灾害风险评估技术探讨

通过陕京四线输气管道工程内蒙古区域站场建设项目的具体实例,结合内蒙古地区雷暴观测资料和闪电资料,分析输气管道站场建设项目所在地大气雷电环境状况和雷电灾害易损性;然后依据IEC62305-2等标准规范对建设项目评估单元的雷电灾害风险进行了详细地分析和计算,明确了站场等区域建筑物的风险等级,根据每个区域的特点提出了相关的防雷建议。     

气候可行性论证工作浅析

根据建设项目需要和气候可行性论证发展特点，提出了气候可行性论证的指导原则及要求，从工程建设的合理布局和保护气候环境的基点出发，对气候可行性论证的范围、内容，以及气候可行性论证分析与评价进行了探讨。     

1991年辽宁气象科技十项进步

1.“城市空气污染评价预报方法研究”成果获省政府科技进步二等奖。该成果已应用于省内外30多个大中型建设项目的环境评价工作中,为推动国民经济建设做出了贡献。2.“水稻不同栽培生育型环境因子模拟研究”、“营口气象台海洋人机对话系统”、“松毛虫发生规律及预报方法研究”、“短期     

污染场地健康风险评价述评

首先介绍了污染场地（场地是一定范围内的土壤、地下水、地表水、大气和生物的总和）健康风险评价产生的背景;然后从风险评价理论与方法、重金属与有机物污染及健康风险评价实例、污染场地环境管理等方面综述了国内外研究现状;最后系统分析了目前我国污染场地健康风险评价中存在的5大问题,并对其未来的发展趋势进行了展望。     

基于多源数据融合的云南省雷电灾害风险综合评价与区划

根据自然灾害风险理论,结合气象数据、地理信息、人口与经济资料等开展雷电灾害风险综合评价,研究致灾因子、孕灾环境和承灾体等因子与风险的定量化关系,建立评价指标和层次分析模型,运用模糊综合判断和聚类分析等方法计算综合评价指数并划分风险等级。结果表明:雷电灾害高风险区主要集中在滇中、滇西南及滇西北的丽江东南部等地区;次高风险区分布于西双版纳、普洱、昆明、楚雄、曲靖西部、玉溪北部及大理中部等地;中风险区分布最广,主要集中在临沧、德宏、曲靖、红河、丽江及文山北部等;迪庆、怒江和昭通的风险值较低,将风险综合评价结果与历史雷电灾情的分布进行对比,两者对应情况较好。开展基于灾前防御的风险分析,研究雷电活动影响范围和风险等级,有助于提前控制和处置风险,随着技术方法的不断改进,风险评价的置信度和可靠性也将得到提升。     

杭州市台风暴雨洪涝灾害风险区划与评价

根据1960—2009年杭州市7个县市区的台风降水资料,结合杭州市的社会经济与自然地理要素,构建一个集致灾因子、孕灾环境、承灾体及防灾能力为一体的区域台风暴雨洪涝灾害风险评价模型。通过GIS空间分析技术实现各评价指标的栅格化,并利用模糊综合评价方法。编制以100 m×100 m栅格为基本评价单元的杭州市台风暴雨洪涝灾害风险区划图。将杭州市域划分为高、次高、中等、次低和低的5级风险。区划结果表明：杭州市台风暴雨洪涝灾害风险从西南至东北呈递增趋势。萧山区、余杭市及杭州主城区等沿海平原区,风险等级相对较高;而建德市、淳安县等中西部山地丘陵区,风险等级略低。     

哈尔滨雷电监测数据在雷电灾害风险评估中的应用

<正>1引言雷电灾害风险评估要考虑项目所在地气象环境、地质和地理环境、建筑物的重要性、使用性质和发生雷电的可能性及后果,将这些诸多因素以数值或参数罗列表达,通过公式或绘图方法计算出项目雷击风险值与可承受的风险最大值,然后进行比较,进行经济损失、人员伤亡风险值估算,提出雷电防护设计指导。大气雷电环境评价是雷电灾害风险评估的基础,雷电监测网数据是进行大气雷电环境评价的基础要素,通过统计雷暴日、闪电定位、大气电场等数     

河南省雷电灾害风险评估进展及建议

河南省18个市均开展了雷电风险评估工作,但发展很不平衡,开展较好的已完成百余个项目,较差的刚起步.评估范围涉及有大型建设项目、爆炸火灾危险环境、普通住宅、重点工程、人员密集场所等.通过分析河南省部分雷击风险评估报告(以下简称《报告》),分别从技术和非技术方面分析了目前河南省雷电灾害风险评估工作的现状;针对存在问题提出了建议,并推荐雷击风险评估报告文本格式和雷击风险评估现场勘察原始记录项目内容.河南省目前雷击风险评估工作的重点、难点不在数据计算上,而是在雷电灾害分析、风险分量选取上,还应在《报告》编写上进一步改进,尤其是项目概述、结论、建议要规范、明确、具体,不能千篇一律.     

基于GIS的广东省台风灾害风险性评价

为有效评价广东省台风灾害风险性,基于自然灾害风险性评价理论及方法和地理信息系统(GIS)相关技术,利用灾害及社会经济统计数据、遥感地图数据和其它地理数据,选择灾害危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体脆弱性和防灾减灾能力为评价指标,运用提出的TFN-AHP-EW主客观赋权法求取各评价指标相关因子的权重,建立广东省台风灾害风险性评价模型。结果表明:广东省台风灾害风险程度区域差异明显,风险性较高的地区为广东省南部沿海地区如湛江、珠海、汕尾;风险较低的地区是广东省北部地区如清远、韶关等地。      

加强业务管理提高测报质量

我局从1999～2003年,测报工作连续4年未出现错情,在此期间共有1个250个班,9个百班无错通过上级业务部门验收.在仪器保管、使用、维护上符合要求,对外报送的各种表、簿都能做好出门合格.     

Quantifying the uncertainty of the annular mode time scale and the role of the stratosphere

The impact of high resolution modern vegetation cover on the West African climate is examined using the International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model implementing the NCAR Community Land Model. Two high resolution 25 km long-term simulations driven by the output from a coarser 50-km resolution simulation are performed for the period 1998–2010. One high resolution simulation uses an earlier and coarser-resolution version of plant functional type distribution and leaf area index, while the other uses a more recent, higher-quality, and finer-resolution version of the data. The results indicate that the new land cover distribution substantially alters the distribution of temperature with warming in Central Nigeria, northern Gulf of Guinea and part of the Sahel due to the replacement of C4 grass with corn; and cooling along the coastlines of the Gulf of Guinea and in Central Africa due to the replacement of C4 grass with tropical broadleaf evergreen trees. Changes in latent heat flux appear to be largely responsible for these temperature changes with a net decrease (increase) in regions of warming (cooling). The improved land cover distribution also results in a wetter monsoon season. The presence of corn tends to favor larger precipitation amounts via more intense events, while the presence of tropical broadleaf evergreen trees tends to favor the occurrence of both more intense and more frequent events. The wetter conditions appear to be sustained via (1) an enhanced soil moisture feedback; and (2) elevated moisture transport due to increased low-level convergence in regions south of 10N where the most substantial land cover differences are present. Overall the changes induced by the improved vegetation cover improve, to some extent, the performance of the high resolution regional climate model in simulating the main West African summer monsoon features.     

由中国历史气候记录对季风导致唐朝灭亡说的质疑

2007年1月4日杂志发表了Yancheva等10人的题为"Influence of the intertropical convergence zone on the East-Asian monsoon"(热带辐合带对东亚季风的影响)的论文[1],这是德国波兹坦地学研究中心气候动力与沉积学科的主管豪格(G.H.Haug)率领的科研小组的一项成果,认为是季风的变化引起的长期干旱导致了唐朝的灭亡.     

On the forecast of the onset and end of the convective season in the Amazon

Summary ?Some features of the climate system that can be considered predictors of the onset and end of the convective season over the Amazon were identified using one-month lag correlations and field composites. The fields analyzed were sea surface temperature (SST), outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR), vertical velocity and upper tropospheric winds. Warm (cold) anomalies in the SST in the tropical North Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea tend to be associated with delayed (early) onsets. Likewise, there is a tendency towards a delayed (early) end of the convective season with cold (warm) anomalies in these ocean regions. In addition, the SST in the cold tongue region of the equatorial Pacific is negatively, though weakly correlated with the onset date. The signal of this SST is more evident in the case of the end date, which is earlier with respect to its mean date in most of El Ni?o cases. The convective activity intensity itself conditions the onset and the end of the convective season, as it is evidenced by the behavior of the OLR and the vertical velocity fields. The more (less) intense the convective activity over South America during the preceding month, the earlier the onset and the later the end of the convective season on the Amazon region. The prediction of the onset and end dates of the convective season in the Amazon region was explored using a simple multiple regression technique based on the variables that have shown precursor signals with respect to these dates. The correlation coefficient between the predicted and the observed onset date is 0.81, and in the case of the end date, it is 0.76. The skill to predict early, delayed and normal categories was high, since in more than two thirds of the cases the category was successfully predicted, and there were no predictions of categories opposed to those observed. Received July 23, 2001; revised February 22, 2002; accepted April 26, 2002     

Comparing the theoretical versions of the Beaufort scale, the T-Scale and the Fujita scale

2005 is the bicentenary of the Beaufort Scale and its wind-speed codes: the marine version in 1805 and the land version later. In the 1920s when anemometers had come into general use, the Beaufort Scale was quantified by a formula based on experiment. In the early 1970s two tornado wind-speed scales were proposed: (1) an International T-Scale based on the Beaufort Scale; and (2) Fujita's damage scale developed for North America. The International Beaufort Scale and the T-Scale share a common root in having an integral theoretical relationship with an established scientific basis, whereas Fujita's Scale introduces criteria that make its intensities non-integral with Beaufort. Forces on the T-Scale, where T stands for Tornado force, span the range 0 to 10 which is highly useful world wide. The shorter range of Fujita's Scale (0 to 5) is acceptable for American use but less convenient elsewhere. To illustrate the simplicity of the decimal T-Scale, mean hurricane wind speed of Beaufort 12 is T2 on the T-Scale but F1.121 on the F-Scale; while a tornado wind speed of T9 (= B26) becomes F4.761. However, the three wind scales can be uni-fied by either making F-Scale numbers exactly half the magnitude of T-Scale numbers [i.e. F′half = T / 2 = (B / 4) − 4] or by doubling the numbers of this revised version to give integral equivalence with the T-Scale. The result is a decimal formula F′double = T = (B / 2) − 4 named the TF-Scale where TF stands for Tornado Force. This harmonious 10-digit scale has all the criteria needed for world-wide practical effectiveness.     

准两年振荡对大气中微量气体分布的影响

NCAR的包含化学、辐射、动力相互作用的两维模式（SOCRATES）移植回国后进行了初步的模拟试验,用以研究某些对环境问题重要的微量气体的化学、辐射、动力传输过程。在不考虑极地平流层云和气溶胶表面非均相化学等情况下,模式积分多年,计算结果稳定,模拟的风场、温度场显示出正常的季节变化,模拟的微量气体分布与卫星实测资料对照,结果也比较一致。为了探讨热带平流层风场的准两年周期振荡（QBO）对平流层微量气体分布的影响,我们做了QBO强迫的数值试验,即在模式中加入QBO强迫,并与不考虑QBO强迫的模拟结果对比。结果表明,QBO与其相关的次级环流所引起动力输送的变化,使平流层微量气体分布发生变化。     

Analysis of the Characteristics of the Low-level Jets in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River during the Mei-yu Season

Here, we analyze the characteristics and the formation mechanisms of low-level jets(LLJs) in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River during the 2010 mei-yu season using Wuhan station radiosonde data and the fifth generation of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ERA5) reanalysis dataset. Our results show that the vertical structure of LLJs is characterized by a predominance of boundary layer jets(BLJs) concentrated at heights of 900–1200 m.The BLJs occur most frequently at 230...     

流场配置及地形对西南低涡形成的动力作用

本文采用定常二层模式讨论较小地形及高、低层流场配置对西南低涡形成的动力作用。指出了西南低涡的形成是与盆地、河谷以及其上气流分层有关的一种定常态.在上、下为西风分层时期,低层的浅薄暖湿西风有利于西南低涡的形成.在上、下为东、西风分层时期,上层浅薄东风亦有利于西南低涡的形成.小型的凸起山脉对西南低涡的形成没有作用.