1976/1977年前后热带印度洋海表温度年际异常的变化

基于1948～2005年NCEP/NCAR（美国大气研究中心/环境预测中心）再分析资料,讨论了1976/1977年前后的年代际气候变化对热带印度洋海表温度（SST）年际变率特征的影响,结果表明:在气候变化前后,ENSO都能导致热带印度洋SSTA（海表面温度异常）出现全海盆同号的变化,这种模态在冬季最强;气候变化前与变化后相比,该模态对该地区海温年际变率的方差贡献大22.1%, 达到最强的时间早2个月。气候变化前,秋季热带印度洋SSTA的主导年际变率模态表现为全海盆同号,变化后则表现为“偶极子模态”（IODM）。导致上述SSTA特征变化的重要原因,是气候变化前后印度洋风场对ENSO的响应不同。在气候变化前,与ENSO相关联的热带印度洋东风异常首先在夏季出现,而变化后则首先在春季出现,并且有一反气旋性环流异常维持在热带东南印度洋。     

热带印度洋秋季偶极子模态与南海夏季风强度变化的关系

利用多年的Reynolds月平均海表温度资料和NCEP／NCAR全球大气再分析资料，采用经验正交函数（EOF）分析和滑动相关方法，研究了热带印度洋秋季偶极子模态和南海夏季风强度变化的关系。结果表明：（1）热带印度洋秋季海表温度距平（SSTA）的主要模态是全区一致型和偶极子（IOD）型，全区一致型模态主要代表了秋季SSTA全海盆一致的年代际及其以上时间尺度的变化，IOD型模态主要反映热带印度洋秋季SSTA年际时间尺度的变化。（2）当前期秋季热带印度洋存在正（负）IOD模态时，南海的夏季风强度减弱（增强）。二者年际变化的负相关关系在长期趋势的冷位相期不显著，而在暖位相期显著。（3）当南海夏季风强度增强（减弱）时，后期秋季热带印度洋出现正（负）IOD模态。二者年际变化的正相关关系在长期趋势的冷、暖位相期显著，在冷、暖位相转换期前后不显著。     

热带印度洋上层洋流的动力统计诊断

作者对热带印度洋上层洋流作了空间的三维经验正交函数(EOF)分析,揭示其与印度洋偶极子和ENSO循环的关系.结果表明:热带印度洋上层流场偏差的前3个三维模态都具有赤道俘获波的性质,第一、二、三模态均具有2～4年的准周期,第一、三模态分别对应于第一、二类印度洋偶极子模态,第二模态则是ENSO在印度洋的延伸模态.由三维EOF各模态可直接计算各模态的垂直速度场.印度洋海温的年际变化主要取决于印度洋地区的海气耦合状态,然而ENSO循环也有很大影响,其影响也许是通过沃克环流的啮合作用来实现的.     

近20年来热带印度洋与热带太平洋海气系统相互作用特征的诊断研究

利用1979年1月～1998年12月的月平均海表温度(SST)、向外长波辐射(OLR)和l000hPa纬向风速等NCEP/NCAR再分析资料，对近20年来热带印度洋与太平洋海温异常(SSTA)及相关的环流特征量进行综合分析和研究，发现热带印度洋的内部耦合动力特征模态—偶极子模的强度，存在着年代间的差异，80年代偏弱，90年代偏强。热带印度洋与热带太平洋海气耦合系统之间存在着相互作用，80年代热带印度洋的SSTA主要是对太平洋ENSO的响应，90年代太平洋ENSO的异常发展在一定程度上是受印度洋偶极子模态异常活跃影响的结果。从观测资料诊断分析的角度，找出了90年代后ZC耦合模式对ENSO事件预报失败的可能原因。     

10月份热带印度洋海气耦合的统计动力诊断

本文将热带印度洋10月份的大气风场和海洋上层流场看作一个整体, 对其作了动力统计诊断, 即作了复EOF分析, 考察了其年际和年代际变化, 并揭示其与印度洋偶极子 (IOD) 和ENSO的关系。结果表明: 在同一模态中, 海洋模态表现出很强的赤道俘获现象, 而大气则无此现象; 第一模态为印度洋偶极子模态; 第二模态为ENSO前期在印度洋的延伸模态。前2个模态的风场都揭示了Walker环流异常的结构; 印度洋海温的年际变化主要取决于印度洋地区的海气耦合状态, 但太平洋的ENSO循环对其也有一定影响。     

冬季北太平洋优势气候模态的转移

采用EOF分解和小波分析,并引入相似度,分析冬季北太平洋的两个主要气候模态,即太平洋年代际振荡（PDO）模态与北太平洋涡旋振荡（NPGO）模态,及其结构特征随时间的演变。结果表明：1988/1989年的气候转移后,冬季海温距平（SSTA）优势模态为NPGO模态的年份越来越多,这种优势气候模态的转移现象表现出准18 a的年代际周期;SSTA与NPGO模态相似度的20年滑动平均在20世纪80年代中后期之后超过了SSTA与PDO模态的相应值,这表明此后SSTA的优势模态发生了转移,由PDO型转换为NPGO型;对典型时间段SSTA的合成分析显示,其优势模态由1988年前的PDO型转变为之后的NPGO型。     

印度洋海温异常对南亚区域净初级生产力影响的数值模拟

利用中国科学院大气物理研究所发展的全球海洋-大气-动态植被耦合气候模式 (GOALS-AVIM) 的模拟结果, 分析了印度洋海表温度 (SST) 变化及其与南亚陆面净初级生产力 (NPP) 的关系。模式连续运行50年, 取后40年结果分析。对模拟的印度洋海表温度距平 (SSTA) 的经验正交分解 (EOF) 进行分析, 发现第一特征向量在全区域表现为一致变化的趋势, 表明在春夏秋冬四季中印度洋海温都有一致增暖或降温的趋势, 同时赤道印度洋海温一致变化与赤道太平洋Niño3指数有滞后的正相关, 太平洋的Niño3指数变化超前印度洋海温一致变化8个月左右。第二特征向量则表现为热带印度洋SST存在着东西方向振荡的偶极子型振荡特征, 而且偶极子强度有明显季节变化, 并有很明显的季节相位锁定。印度洋SSTA的一致变化的异常趋势与南亚地区的季节和年平均NPP变化表现出很强的同期和滞后相关性; 与南亚地区年平均NPP相关性较高的印度洋夏季SST的EOF第一模态正负相位对应着不同的850 hPa流场、 500 hPa高度场以及南亚地区降水场的异常。分析表明, 印度洋及南亚地区的夏季风加强或减弱导致受南亚地区降水异常, 并使该地区NPP产生异常的增加或减少。     

近50 a全球和三大洋海温距平的时空变化特征

利用49a(1950-1998年)NCEP/NCAR逐月SSTA资料和EOF方法,分别对太平洋、大西洋、印度洋和全球海洋SSTA主要特征向量的空间分布和相应的时间变化进行了讨论。利用Morlet小波进一步分析了要素场的周期变化和能量变化。发现经EOF分解后的SSTA场具有很好的空间整体性和明显的年际和年代际变化。各大洋海温变化存在明显的同期和时滞相关关系,很好地体现了大洋间的协同作用和太平洋的主导作用。从不同的空间分布模态中选择海温变化显著的区域作为关键区,进行同期和时滞相关分析,结果发现各关键区之间具有明显的同期和时滞相关关系。     

夏季西北太平洋热带气旋生成频次与热带海温关系的年代际变化

探讨了夏季(6—8月)西北太平洋(Western North Pacific,WNP)热带气旋生成频次(Tropical Cyclone Genesis Frequency,TCGF)与热带海温关系的年代际变化,发现影响WNP TCGF的热带海温型在1991/1992年发生了年代际变化。在1990年代初之前,TCGF正异常对应的热带海温异常(Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly,SSTA)呈现东部型La Ni?a衰减位相,前冬至春季WNP局地暖SSTA在其西北侧激发气旋异常,夏季时由热带印度洋冷SSTA继续维持。在1990年代初之后,TCGF正异常对应的热带SSTA呈现东部型La Ni?a向中部型El Ni?o快速转换的位相,夏季中太平洋暖SSTA在其西北侧激发气旋异常,同时热带东印度洋至海洋性大陆以及热带大西洋的冷SSTA通过垂直环流圈加强中太平洋的辐合上升运动,进一步维持其西北侧气旋异常。由于激发气旋异常的暖SSTA在第二个年代相较第一个年代明显偏南偏东,气旋异常和TCGF正异常在第二个年代也整体偏南且向东扩展至更远的区域。WNP TCGF与热带海温关系的年代际变化与1990年代初之后厄尔尼诺-南方涛动演变速率加快有关。      

热带印度洋春季海表温度异常与南海夏季风强度变化的关系

利用50年的Reynolds月平均海表温度资料和NCEP/NCAR全球大气再分析资料,分析了热带印度洋春季海温异常对南海夏季风强度变化的影响。结果表明:1)热带印度洋春季海表温度距平(SSTA)的模态主要是全区一致型(USBM)和热带南印度洋偶极型(SIODM),USBM模态既有年际时间尺度的变化特征,又有年际以上时间尺度的变化特征,既包含有对冬季ENSO信号响应的变化特征,又有独立于ENSO的变化特征;SIODM模态主要表现为独立于ENSO的年际时间尺度变化。2)USBM模态与南海夏季风强度变化呈显著负相关关系,且二者都是对冬季ENSO信号的响应,USBM模态的年际变化不能独立于ENSO信号影响南海夏季风的强度变化。3)经(1~8年)带通滤波及去除ENSO信号的热带印度洋春季SSTA的SIODM型分布是影响南海夏季风强度变化的主要模态,表现为热带东南印度洋为负(正)、其他海区为正(负)时,南海夏季风强度增强(减弱),大气环流对热带东南印度洋SSTA热力作用的响应是造成这一关系的直接原因,SIODM型的SSTA分布与南海夏季风年际异常关系在热带印度洋长期变化趋势的暖位相期显著,在长期变化趋势的冷位相期不显著。     

RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN AUTUMN INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE MODE AND THE STRENGTH OF SCS SUMMER MONSOON

Based on 1948 - 2004 monthly Reynolds Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and NCEP/NCAR atmospheric reanalysis data, the relationships between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole Mode (IODM) and the strength of South China Sea (SCS) Summer Monsoon are investigated through the EOF and smooth correlation methods. The results are as the following. (1) There are two dominant modes of autumn SSTA over the tropical Indian Ocean. They are the uniformly signed basin-wide mode (USBM) and Indian Ocean dipole mode (IODM), respectively. The SSTA associated with USBM are prevailing decadal to interdecadal variability characterized by a unanimous pattern, while the IODM mainly represents interannual variability of SSTA. (2) When positive (negative) IODM exists over the tropical Indian Ocean during the preceding fall, the SCS summer monsoon will be weak (strong). The negative correlation between the interannual variability of IODM and that of SCS summer monsoon is significant during the warm phase of long-term trend but insignificant during the cool phase. (3) When the SCS summer monsoon is strong (weak), the IODM will be in its positive (negative) phase during the following fall season. The positive correlation between the interannual variability of SCS summer monsoon and that of IODM is significant during both the warm and cool phase of the long-term trend, but insignificant during the transition between the two phases.     

热带印度洋海温的年际变化与ENSO

文中讨论了热带印度洋海表温度距平空间分布的年际变化与赤道中东太平洋海温的关系。EOF分析的结果表明 ,印度洋海温的变化主要存在全区符号一致的单极型和西部与东南部符号相反的偶极型 ,它们具有显著的年际变化。小波凝聚谱揭示了单极、偶极的变化与Nino3区海表温度距平存在密切关系 ,印度洋海温距平从偶极到单极的变化对应着ElNi no事件从发展到衰减的过程。平均而言 ,印度洋偶极超前Nino3区海温距平约 4个月 ,单极滞后约 6个月。整个热带印度洋 -太平洋地区海气耦合特征的演变表明 ,与ElNino从发展到衰减相联系的热带西太平洋海气耦合相互作用在印度洋海温距平从偶极到单极的演变过程中起着非常重要的作用。     

Assessing Global Warming Induced Changes in Summer Rainfall Variability over Eastern China Using the Latest Hadley Centre Climate Model HadGEM3-GC2

Summer precipitation anomalies over eastern China are characterized spatially by meridionally banded structures fluctuating on interannual and interdecadal timescales,leading to regional droughts and floods.In addition to long-term trends,how these patterns may change under global warming has important implications for agricultural planning and water resources over this densely populated area.Using the latest Hadley Centre climate model,Had GEM3-GC2,this paper investigates the potential response of summer precipitation patterns over this region,by comparing the leading modes between a 4×CO_2 simulation and the model's pre-industrial control simulation.Empirical Orthogonal Function(EOF) analyses show that the first two leading modes account for about 20% of summer rainfall variability.EOF1 is a monopole mode associated with the developing phase of ENSO events and EOF2 is a dipole mode associated with the decaying phase of ENSO.Under 4×CO_2 forcing,the dipole mode with a south–north orientation becomes dominant because of a strengthened influence from excessive warming of the Indian Ocean.On interdecadal time scales,the first EOF looks very different from the control simulation,showing a dipole mode of east–west contrast with enhanced influence from high latitudes.     

热带印度洋海温异常单、偶极模态及其相互作用

利用最近50多年的GISST和NCEP的OISST海表温度资料研究了印度洋海温变化的空间分布型和多重时间尺度及其相互作用.结果表明,热带印度洋海温主要存在两种空间分布型,即全海盆符号一致的单极和东、西部符号相反的偶极.单极既存在长期增暖趋势,也存在年际振荡;偶极则以年际变化为主.在去掉由EOF重建的单极后,热带印度洋东、西部海温表现为显著的反相关关系;对17次典型偶极子个例的分析表明,对偶极子本身而言,偶极子的演变更像是一种翘翘板似的局地振荡.单极在长期趋势和年际时间尺度上对偶极的影响是不同的.长期趋势缩短了偶极子的生命期,在冷期,印度洋海温经历了由负单极到正偶极再到负单极的演变,偶极子的异常信号最早出现在热带西印度洋;在暖期,印度洋海温经历了由正单极到正偶极再到正单极的演变,偶极子的异常信号最早出现在热带东印度洋.对年际时间尺度的变化而言,印度洋海温异常由负单极向正偶极再到正单极转换,偶极子位于一种单极向另一种单极的转换过程之中,在此过程中,印度洋海温表现为明显自西向东的传播特征.     

An investigation of the relationship between sub‐Saharan rainfall and global sea surface temperatures

Abstract

The relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) and rainfall index anomalies over sub‐Saharan Africa for the 15‐year period, 1970–84, has been examined. The objectively analysed monthly mean SST data were used for the global oceans between 40°S and 60°N. The rainfall data consist of annual mean rainfall indices for the Sahel and Soudan belts over north Africa.

An Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis of the SST data has been carried out for the Atlantic, Indian and global ocean regions. The results show that the most dominant eigenmode, EOF1, is characterized by warming over the central eastern Pacific, cooling over the eastern mid‐latitude Pacific and warming over the entire Atlantic and Indian ocean basins. The second EOF for the Atlantic Ocean SST analysis shows a dipole (north‐south see‐saw) pattern. The third EOF for the Atlantic SST analysis has the same sign over the entire Atlantic basin. Global SST EOF2 and EOF3 correspondió Atlantic SST EOF3 and EOF2, respectively.

The correlation between the sub‐Saharan annual rainfall index, which mainly represents the summer season rainfall from June to September, and SST EOFs shows that EOF1 has statistically significant monthly correlations for the Sahel and Soudan regions and that the warm El Niño‐like phases of SST EOF1 correspond to drought conditions. This result suggests that the large‐scale SST anomalies may be responsible for a significant component of the observed vacillation of sub‐Saharan rainfall. Some preliminary GLA GCM simulation results that support the above findings are also presented.     

PRELIMINARY RESEARCH OF THE PACIFIC-INDIAN OCEAN SSTA MODE AND DEFINITION OF ITS INDEX

Applying the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis to the sea surface temperature (SST) field of the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans for determination of the first eigenvector field, the current work reveals that there are significant zonal gradients of SST in all seasons of the year in the northwestern and eastern Indian Ocean and equatorial central and eastern Pacific and western Pacific. It is also found that the variance contribution rates of the first EOF mode of every season is more than 33%. This shows that this kind of spatial distribution of the SST is stable. This pattern is named Pacific-Indian Oceans SSTA mode. Through careful analysis and comparison, an index of the mode was defined.     

Interannual-to-decadal variability of the North Atlantic from an ocean data assimilation system

An ocean analysis, assimilating both surface and subsurface hydrographic temperature data into a global ocean model, has been produced for the period 1958–2000, and used to study the time and space variations of North Atlantic upper ocean heat content (HC). Observational evidence is presented for interannual-to-decadal variability of upper ocean thermal fluctuations in the North Atlantic related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) variability over the last 40 years. The assimilation scheme used in the ocean analysis is a univariate, variational optimum interpolation of temperature. The first guess is produced by an eddy permitting global ocean general circulation forced by atmospheric reanalysis from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The validation of the ocean analysis has been done through the comparison with objectively analyzed observations and independent data sets. The method is able to compensate for the model systematic error to reproduce a realistic vertical thermal structure of the region and to improve consistently the model estimation of the time variability of the upper ocean temperature. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis shows that an important mode of variability of the wintertime upper ocean climate over the North Atlantic during the period of study is characterized by a tripole pattern both for SST and upper ocean HC. A similar mode is found for summer HC anomalies but not for summer SST. Over the whole period, HC variations in the subtropics show a general warming trend while the tropical and north eastern part of the basin have an opposite cooling tendency. Superimposed on this linear trend, the HC variability explained by the first EOF both in winter and summer conditions reveals quasi-decadal oscillations correlated with changes in the NAO index. On the other hand, there is no evidence of correlation in time between the NAO index and the upper ocean HC averaged over the whole North Atlantic which exhibits a substantial and monotonic warming trend during the last two decades of the analysis period. The maximum correlation is found between the leading principal component of winter HC anomalies and NAO index at 1 year lag with NAO leading. For SST anomalies significant correlation is found only for winter conditions. In contrast, for HC anomalies high correlations are found also in the summer suggesting that the summer HC keeps a memory of winter conditions.     

The interannual variability in the tropical Indian Ocean as simulated by a CGCM

The interannual variability in the tropical Indian Ocean, and in particular the Indian Ocean dipole mode (IODM), is investigated using both observations and a multi-decadal simulations performed by the coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model SINTEX. Overall, the characteristics of the simulated IODM are close to the features of the observed mode. Evidence of significant correlations between sea level pressure anomalies in the southeastern Indian Ocean and sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans have been found both in observations and a multi-decadal simulation. In particular, a positive SLP anomaly in the southeastern part of the basin seems to produce favorable conditions for the development of an IODM event. The role played by the ocean dynamics both in the developing and closing phases of the IODM events is also investigated. Our results suggest that, during the developing phase, the heat content and SST variability associated with the IODM are influenced by a local response of the ocean to the winds, and a remote response with the excitation of Kelvin and Rossby waves. Ocean wave dynamics appear to be important also during the dying phase of the IODM, when equatorial downwelling Kelvin waves transport positive heat content anomalies from the western to the eastern part of the basin, suppressing the zonal heat content anomaly gradient. The results obtained from the model suggest a mechanism for the IODM. This mechanism is generally consistent with the characteristics of the observed IODM. Furthermore, it might give some clue in understanding the correlation between IODM and ENSO activity found both in the model and in the observations.     

Impacts of the leading modes of tropical Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomaly on sub-seasonal evolution of the circulation and rainfall over East Asia during boreal spring and summer

The two leading modes of the interannual variability of the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly are the Indian Ocean basin mode (IOBM) and the Indian Ocean dipole mode (IODM) from March to August. In this paper, the relationship between the TIO SST anomaly and the sub-seasonal evolution of the circulation and rainfall over East Asia during boreal spring and summer is investigated by using correlation analysis and composite analysis based on multi-source observation data from 1979 to 2013, together with numerical simulations from an atmospheric general circulation model. The results indicate that the impacts of the IOBM on the circulation and rainfall over East Asia vary remarkably from spring to summer. The anomalous anticyclone over the tropical Northwest Pacific induced by the warm IOBM is closely linked with the Pacific–Japan or East Asia–Pacific teleconnection pattern, which persists from March to August. In the upper troposphere over East Asia, the warm phase of the IOBM generates a significant anticyclonic response from March to May. In June and July, however, the circulation response is characterized by enhanced subtropical westerly flow. A distinct anomalous cyclone is found in August. Overall, the IOBM can exert significant influence on the western North Pacific subtropical high, the South Asian high, and the East Asian jet, which collectively modulate the precipitation anomaly over East Asia. In contrast, the effects of the IODM on the climate anomaly over East Asia are relatively weak in boreal spring and summer. Therefore, studying the impacts of the TIO SST anomaly on the climate anomaly in East Asia should take full account of the different sub-seasonal response during boreal spring and summer.