榨季蔗糖分预报方法的研究

通过对贵港甘蔗化工厂历年榨季及不同熟性品种逐候蔗糖分平均值与气象条件关系的研究分析，结果表明甘芳含量由低→高→低的动态变化，过程是甘蔗适应环境气候变化所固有的一种生物学特性，其变化规律可以用以时间为变量的复合函数来表示。在此基础上，探讨了榨季糖分气象预报中趋值和气象糖分的确定及预报方法。     

榨季蔗糖分预报方法的研究

通过对贵港甘蔗化工厂历年榨季及不同熟性品种逐候蔗糖分平均值与气象条件关系的研究分析，结果表明甘蔗糖分含量由低→高→低的动态变化过程是甘蔗适应环境气候变化所固有的一种生物学特性，其变化规律可以用以时间为变量的复合函数来表示。在此基础上，探讨了榨季蔗糖分气象预报中趋势值和气象糖分的确定及预报方法。     

葡萄糖分积累与气象因子的关系

相同的葡萄品种在不同地区生长,风味、品质差异很大。有的甜酸适口,糖分高,酿造的果酒品质也好;有的风味淡,酸度大,糖分低,酿造的果酒品质差。主要原因是气象因子的影响,特别在葡萄糖分积累过程中,叶片制造的光合产物——碳水化合物,运输     

气候变暖对江西双季早稻适播期的影响

利用江西省82个气象观测站1971-2012年地面气象观测资料和14个农业气象观测站1981-2012年双季水稻物候观测资料,针对气候变暖对江西省稳定通过10℃初日、20℃终日以及双季水稻生育期热量条件的影响,依据双季水稻熟性搭配种植对热量条件的需求,采用倒推法计算不同年代以及13个30 a滑动平均序列的双季早稻适播期,分析双季早稻适播期起止日期与持续日数的变化特征。结果表明：10℃初日总体呈提前趋势,尤其是2001年以后,大幅度提前;不同年代间20℃终日的变化幅度较10℃初日的小;适播期起始日期大部分站点呈“推迟-推迟-大幅提前”的趋势,终止日期大部分站点呈“推迟-提前-大幅推迟”的趋势,持续日数一般呈“增加-减少-大幅增加”变化趋势。受气候变暖的影响,江西省适宜采用“中熟＋中熟”搭配方式种植双季水稻的地区逐步北扩,尤其是2001年以后,可采取“中熟＋中熟”搭配方式的地区明显扩大。1981-2010年江西省除修水县、铜鼓县、资溪县等局部地区外,大部地区可采取“中熟＋中熟”搭配方式。1991-2020年,除了修水、婺源等赣北局部地区种植仍有一定风险外,其余地区的热量条件均满足“中熟＋中熟”搭配方式的双季水稻种植,或采取对热量条件要求更高的熟性搭配方式种植,如南昌县、樟树市等地可调整为“中熟＋迟熟”或“迟熟＋中熟”搭配方式,而泰和县、南康县、龙南县等地可因地制宜采取“迟熟＋迟熟”搭配方式种植双季水稻,以充分利用热量资源,提高双季水稻产量与品质。     

不同播期下甜高粱含糖量变化及其与气象因子的关系

为确定甜高粱适宜播期及含糖量关键气象影响因子,以新疆玛纳斯地区甜高粱主栽品种为试验材料,对不同播期下甜高粱含糖量的变化及其与气象因子的关系进行了比较分析。结果表明,随生育期延迟,甜高粱茎秆总糖含量、蔗糖含量逐渐升高,成熟期最高;还原糖含量开花期达到最大值,灌浆期后逐渐下降,至成熟期最低。不同播期之间甜高粱茎秆含糖量存在显著差异(P<0.05),"新高粱3号"适宜早播,以4月25日播种较为适宜;T601适宜迟播,以5月8日播种较为适宜。相关分析结果表明,不同播期下不同品种甜高粱茎秆糖分含量与平均温度、降水、日照时数和风速存在显著相关(P<0.05),可根据气温、降水和日照时数进行甜高粱含糖量预测。     

甘蔗开榨防冻保鲜的气象指标

玉山糖厂甘蔗制糖生产的经济效益不高,最主要原因就是冬季气温低,榨蔗受冻害严重,影响了出糖率。我们应用糖厂近十年的甘蔗含糖量、出糖率的纪录,对照同期相应的气温资料,初步找到了甘蔗受冻害的规律,并制定了气象服务指标,在生产实践中产生了良好的效益。1 气温对甘蔗糖分的影响甘蔗投榨的大部分时间都在寒冬季节,而该时期是一年当中气温最低,雨、雪、冰冻最多的时期,低温冻害在绝大多数年份是不可避免的。玉山糖厂在以往的榨季中,从未采取过任何防冻保鲜措施,事实证明,甘蔗糖分变化与气温变化的关系十分密切（见表1）。     

广西月蔗糖份预报研究

对广西十几家糖厂月糖蔗份资料进行分类分析，并对其蔗糖份积累变化规律进行模拟，建立各厂榨期内月蔗糖份长期预报和逐月跟踪预报模式，经过三个榨季的预报．效果良好．     

钦州市蔗糖生产与气象条件关系的初步分析

通过对广西钦州市多年原料蔗产量、榨季糖分含量与气象条件关系的相关分析,结果表明：春、秋两季的降雨量是制约钦州市原料蔗产量高低的主要气象因子,而秋末冬初的温度日较差、日照时数等气象因子对榨季糖分含量影响最大,这一研究结果对指导钦州市蔗糖发展有积极意义。     

钦州市蔗糖生产与气象条件关系的初步分析

通过对广西钦州市多年原料蔗产量、榨季糖分含量与气象条件关系的相关分析,结果表明:春、秋两季的降雨量是制约钦州市原料蔗产量高低的主要气象因子,而秋末冬初的温度日较差、日照时数等气象因子对榨季糖分含量影响最大,这一研究结果对指导钦州市蔗糖发展有积极意义。     

南宁市蔗糖行业人工增雨服务效益调查评估

分析了南宁市种植甘蔗的气候适应性,以及降雨量与甘蔗生长、蔗茎产量及含糖量的关系,并对比分析了为南宁糖业股份有限公司所属蔗区实施人工增雨前后的甘蔗产量及蔗糖分,认为蔗糖分前后变化不大,但实施人工增雨后甘蔗产量有较显著提高,从而能获得令人满意的经济效益;在此基础上提出了做好人工增雨工作的改进思路。     

蔗糖生产最佳榨期和高糖期的预报

分析广西１３家糖厂历年实际榨期和榨季蔗糖分资料可知，有大部年份的榨期安排不够合理，从而降低了糖厂的经济效益。针对榨期安排的问题，作者从分析蔗糖分积累动态变化入手，将其分类进行模拟，建立模型。     

MODIS数据在乌鲁木齐地区植被景观动态监测中的应用

根据EOS／MODIS卫星时次高覆盖面广的特征，选取从4．10月的MODIS晴空资料，对整个乌鲁木齐地区植被景观进行动态监测，利用植被指数最大合成法制作了每月植被指数专题图。为了能够结合物候更好地分析乌鲁木齐地区植被随季节变化趋势以及不同时期植被生长状况，我们还制作了植被景观专题图及其变化评价图。评价图的优势在于能直观地反映植被变化的趋势，并能将变化的程度数字化，还可以根据不同的评价图叠加DEM做相应的分析。为乌鲁木齐地区植被变化研究提供有效的依据。     

Deep Soil Moisture Storage and Transpiration in Forests and Pastures of Seasonally-Dry Amazonia

To assess the impacts of land-use changes on plant-available water (PAW) and evapotranspiration (ET), volumetric water content (VWC) was measured to 8 m beneath three, adjacent ecosystems for four years (1991–1994). Estimates of PAW, ET, and deep drainage were generated for mature evergreen forest, adjacent pasture, and capoeira (second-growth forest on abandoned pasture land). PAW between 0 and 8 m depth for forest, pasture, and capoeira ranged from a low of 56, 400, and 138 mm at the end of the 1992 dry season to a high of 941, 1116, and 1021 mm during the 1994 wet season. We found significant differences in deep (4–8 m) stocks of PAW when comparing pasture with both forest types. In contrast, mature forest and capoeira PAW were not significantly different from one another at any depth during the experiment. In all three ecosystems available soil moisture from 4–8 m was depleted during the 1991 dry season by plant water uptake and was not recharged to 1991 levels until 1994 due to an intervening 2-year, El Niño Southern Oscillation event. Water balance estimates (based on measurements to 8 m) showed an average 10% decrease in ET from pasture compared to mature forest. Less than 15 years after pasture abandonment, ET in second-growth forest recovered to rates nearly equaling the mature forest rate. In seasonally dry environments annual and interannual cycles of deep soil moisture recharge and depletion influence rates of transpiration and drainage. These deep cycles are not currently incorporated in models of regional and global moisture flux.     

华北汛期的起讫及其气候学分析

基于对汛期的理解和认识, 利用Samel等人设计的半客观统计分析方法、Mann-Kendall突变分析、滑动t检验等方法, 通过分析和研究1957—2006年华北台站的日降水资料, 确定了华北汛期起讫的日期。结果表明:华北汛期始于6月30日, 止于8月18日, 持续期为50d。华北汛期的起讫日期、持续天数以及空汛发生的频次, 具有鲜明的地域特征:冀北山地汛期开始最早, 结束较迟, 持续天数较长, 空汛发生频次最少; 黄土高原汛期开始较迟, 其北部汛期结束最迟, 持续期也最长, 发生空汛的频次也比较多; 黄河下游地区汛期开始比较早, 结束最早, 汛期最短, 发生无大汛的频次较大; 河北平原地区, 汛期开始最迟, 结束较迟, 汛期较长, 发生无大汛的频次最多。与华北汛期开始和结束日相对应的东亚大气环流特征是:当西太平洋西部上空500hPa存在正的位势高度距平, 华北上空存在负的位势高度距平, 同时地面为“东高西低”的异常海平面气压场配置时, 异常偏南风到达30°N, 华北汛期开始; 当华北上空500hPa为较小的位势高度正距平, 日本海为位势高度正距平, 而地面上, 我国大陆和西太平洋之间为“西高东低”的异常海平面气压场配置时, 异常偏北风控制我国东部地区, 华北汛期结束。     

黑龙江省玉米品种布局的农业气候依据

根据玉米分期播种资料,得出不同品种从播种到出苗、从出苗到抽雄及从抽雄到成熟的热量指标,以地区热量资源的满足程度确定玉米成熟度及成熟概率。根据不同品种的成熟概率及收益状况,利用概率决策方法确定地区的主栽品种,利用线性规划方法求解不同品种最佳搭配的比例。可为充分利用热量资源,获得最佳的经济效益提供气候依据。     

2012年华南前汛期降水特征及环流异常分析

2012年华南前汛期于4月第2候开始,6月第5候结束。前汛期降水经历了三个不同的阶段：第一阶段是4月第2候至5月第3候的降水集中期（锋面降水）,江南大部和华南大部降水偏多25％以上,第二阶段是5月第4候至6月第2候的少雨期,华南中部和东部降水偏少50％以上,第三阶段是6月第3—5候的第二个降水集中期（季风降水）,江南东南部至华南中西部降水偏多50％以上。对各阶段大气环流距平场的分析结果表明：华南前汛期开始后,偏强的乌拉尔山高压脊导致南下的冷空气偏强,偏强的低层副热带高压使得我国南方为整层水汽输送的异常辐合区,两者共同导致华南前汛期第一阶段的锋面降水较常年同期偏多;南海夏季风在爆发后偏弱和西北太平洋副热带高压（以下简称副高）持续3候异常偏北是导致第二阶段前汛期降水明显偏少的主要原因;第三阶段,南海夏季风异常偏强,副高南落并增强,以及孟加拉湾季风槽的偏强使得华南前汛期此阶段的季风降水偏多。     

气候变化背景下麦田沟金针虫爆发性发生为害

近年华北地区大面积推行保护性耕作措施和作物秸秆粉碎还田,冬小麦与夏玉米一年两熟连续轮作种植,为沟金针虫创造了有利的取食和栖息环境。地处华北北部的中国气象局固城农业气象野外科学试验基地2018—2019年秋季、冬季、春季气温出现了冷暖交替,尤其最低气温显著偏高,诱发麦田沟金针虫爆发性发生为害。据春季麦田挖土调查,虫口密度最高达144头·m-2,虫口重量最重达18.764 g·m-2。58个调查点达防治指标5头·m-2占98.27%。拔节-收获期调查虫口密度孕穗期最高,拔节期次之,收获期最低。冬小麦与夏玉米禾本科作物连作种植田间虫口密度达35.3~40.4头·m-2,显著高于前茬大豆、玉米、冬小麦休闲地,且花生地、春玉米地比大豆地虫口密度高5倍多,虫口重量高10倍以上。成熟期虫害麦田测产,籽粒减产36.8%;虫口密度增加10头·m-2,籽粒减产率增加4.824%;虫口重量增加1 g·m-2,籽粒减产率增加3.871%;植株虫害率增加10%,籽粒减产率增加11.587%。     

东亚地区夏季风爆发过程

利用中国194站1961～1995年日降水资料及NCEP1979～1997年候格点降水资料,探讨了亚洲地区自春到夏的雨季开始分布。结果表明,东亚地区自春到夏存在副热带季风雨季开始和热带季风雨季开始。前者于4月初开始于华南北部和江南地区,随后向南和向西南扩展,于4月末扩展到华南沿海和中南半岛,这个雨带主要是冷空气和副热带高压西侧转向的SW风以及南亚地区冬春副热带南支西风槽中西风汇合而形成的,是副热带季风雨季开始。后者是南海热带季风爆发后使原来由江南移到华南沿岸的副热带季风雨带随副热带高压北进而北进,前汛期雨季进入盛期,江南出现第二次雨峰,形成梅雨期和江淮及华北雨季。同时,热带季风雨带也自东向西传播到达南亚地区而形成热带季风雨季。还讨论了1998年东亚地区夏季风爆发过程,指出南海夏季风爆发期的季风由副高北侧形成的新生气旋进入南海造成南海中部西风和南海越赤道气流转向的SW季风加强汇合而形成,因而是东亚季风系统中环流系统季节变化造成的,和印度季风无关。在南海季风爆发期阿拉伯海仍由副热带反气旋控制,南亚仍是上述副热带反气旋北侧NW风南下后转向的偏西副热带气流所控制,索马里低空急流仍未爆发,赤道西风并未影响南海。     

Modeling soil thermal and hydrological dynamics and changes of growing season in Alaskan terrestrial ecosystems

Abundant evidence indicates the growing season has been changed in the Alaskan terrestrial ecosystems in the last century as climate warms. Reasonable simulations of growing season length, onset, and ending are critical to a better understanding of carbon dynamics in these ecosystems. Recent ecosystem modeling studies have been slow to consider the interactive effects of soil thermal and hydrological dynamics on growing season changes in northern high latitudes. Here, we develop a coupled framework to model these dynamics and their effects on plant growing season at a daily time step. In this framework, we (1) incorporate a daily time step snow model into our existing hydrological and soil thermal models and (2) explicitly model the moisture effects on soil thermal conductivity and heat capacity and the effects of active layer depth and soil temperature on hydrological dynamics. The new framework is able to well simulate snow depth and soil temperature profiles for both boreal forest and tundra ecosystems at the site level. The framework is then applied to Alaskan boreal forest and tundra ecosystems for the period 1923–2099. Regional simulations show that (1) for the historical period, the growing season length, onset, and ending, estimated based on the mean soil temperature of the top 20 cm soils, and the annual cycle of snow dynamics, agree well with estimates based on satellite data and other approaches and (2) for the projected period, the plant growing season length shows an increasing trend in both tundra and boreal forest ecosystems. In response to the projected warming, by year 2099, (1) the snow-free days will be increased by 41.0 and 27.5 days, respectively, in boreal forest and tundra ecosystems and (2) the growing season lengths will be more than 28 and 13 days longer in boreal forest and tundra ecosystems, respectively, compared to 2010. Comparing two sets of simulations with and without considering feedbacks between soil thermal and hydrological dynamics, our analyses suggest coupling hydrological and soil thermal dynamics in Alaskan terrestrial ecosystems is important to model ecosystem dynamics, including growing season changes.     

Ambient biogenic hydrocarbons and isoprene emissions from a mixed deciduous forest

Experiments were conducted during the growing season of 1993 at a mixed deciduous forest in southern Ontario, Canada to investigate the atmospheric abundance of hydrocarbons from phytogenic origins, and to measure emission rates from foliage of deciduous trees. The most abundant phytogenic chemical species found in the ambient air were isoprene and the monoterpenes -pinene and -pinene. Prior to leaf-bud break during spring, ambient hydrocarbon mixing ratios above the forest remained barely above instrument detection limit (20 parts per trillion), but they became abundant during the latter part of the growing season. Peak isoprene mixing ratios reached nearly 10 parts per billion (ppbv) during mid-growing season while maximum monoterpene mixing ratios were close to 2 ppbv. Both isoprene and monoterpene mixing ratios exhibited marked diurnal variations. Typical isoprene mixing ratios were highest during mid-afternoon and were lowest during nighttime. Peak isoprene mixing ratios coincided with maximum canopy temperature. The diurnal pattern of ambient isoprene mixing ratio was closely linked to the local emissions from foliage. Isoprene emission rates from foliage were measured by enclosing branches of trees inside environment-controlled cuvette systems and measuring the gas mixing ratio difference between cuvette inlet and outlet airstream. Isoprene emissions depended on tree species, foliage ontogeny, and environmental factors such as foliage temperature and intercepted photosynthetically active radiation (PAR). For instance, young (<1 month old) aspen leaves released approximately 80 times less isoprene than mature (>3 months old) leaves. During the latter part of the growing season the amount of carbon released back to the atmosphere as isoprene by big-tooth and trembling aspen leaves accounted for approximately 2% of the photosynthetically fixed carbon. Significant isoprene mixing ratio gradients existed between the forest crown and at twice canopy height above the ground. The gradient diffusion approach coupled with similarity theory was used to estimate canopy isoprene flux densities. These canopy fluxes compared favorably with values obtained from a multilayered canopy model that utilized locally measured plant microclimate, biomass distribution and leaf isoprene emission rate data. Modeled isoprene fluxes were approximately 30% higher compared to measured fluxes. Further comparisons between measured and modeled canopy biogenic hydrocarbon flux densities are required to assess uncertainties in modeling systems that provide inventories of biogenic hydrocarbons.