DIURNAL CYCLES OF CONVECTIVE AND STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION OVER NORTH CHINA DURING SUMMER

The diurnal cycles of precipitation over north China during summer in four strong rainfall years are examined using two-dimensional cloud-resolving modeling data. The diurnal signals are analyzed in terms of precipitation budget, fractional rainfall coverage and rain intensity over convective and stratiform rainfall area. The analysis of precipitation budget shows that the diurnal cycles of convective and stratiform precipitation mainly correspond respectively to those of water vapor convergence and transport of hydrometeor from convective rainfall area to stratiform rainfall area in 1964, 1994 and 1995, whereas they mainly correspond to those of water vapor convergence in 2013. The diurnal cycles of convective and stratiform precipitation are mainly associated with those of rain intensity in 1964, 1994 and 1995. In 2013, the diurnal cycle of stratiform precipitation is mainly related to that of fractional rainfall coverage over stratiform rainfall area. The multiple peaks of convective precipitation mainly correspond to the rain intensity maxima associated with strong water vapor convergence.     

AN OBSERVATIONAL STUDY ON DISTRIBUTION OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH LANDFALLING TROPICAL CYCLONES AFFECTING CHINA

In order to provide an operational reference for tropical cyclone precipitation forecast,this study investigates the spatial distributions of precipitation associated with landfalling tropical cyclones(TCs) affecting China using Geostationary Meteorological Satellite 5(GMS5)-TBB dataset.All named TCs formed over the western North Pacific that made direct landfall over China during the period 2001-2009 are included in this study.Based on the GMS5-TBB data,this paper reveals that in general there are four types of distribution of precipitation related to landfalling TCs affecting China.(a) the South-West Type in which there is a precipitation maximum to the southwestern quadrant of TC;(b) the Symmetrical South Type in which the rainfall is more pronounced to the south side of TC in the inner core while there is a symmetrical rainfall distribution in the outer band region;(c) the South Type,in which the rainfall maxima is more pronounced to the south of TC;and(d) the North Type,in which the rainfall maxima is more pronounced to the north of TC.Analyses of the relationship between precipitation distributions and intensity of landfalling TCs show that for intensifying TCs,both the maximum and the coverage area of the precipitation in TCs increase with the increase of TC intensity over northern Jiangsu province and southern Taiwan Strait,while decreasing over Beibu Gulf and the sea area of Changjiang River estuary.For all TCs,the center of the torrential rain in TC shifts toward the TC center as the intensity of TC increases.This finding is consistent with many previous studies.The possible influences of storm motion and vertical wind shear on the observed precipitation asymmetries are also examined.Results show that the environmental vertical wind shear is an important factor contributing to the large downshear rainfall asymmetry,especially when a TC makes landfall on the south and east China coasts.These results are also consistent with previous observational and numerical studies.     

Changes of Frequency of Summer Precipitation Extremes over the Yangtze River in Association with Large-scale Oceanic-atmospheric Conditions

Changes of the frequency of precipitation extremes (the number of days with daily precipitation exceeding the 90th percentile of a daily climatology,referred to as R90N) in summer (June-August) over the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River are analyzed based on daily observations during 1961-2007.The first singular value decomposition (SVD) mode of R90N is linked to an ENSO-like mode of the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the previous winter.Responses of different grades of precipitation events to the climatic mode are compared.It is notable that the frequency of summer precipitation extremes is significantly related with the SSTA in the Pacific,while those of light and moderate precipitation are not.It is suggested that the previously well-recognized impact of ENSO on summer rainfall along the Yangtze River is essentially due to a response in summer precipitation extremes in the region,in association with the East Asia-Pacific (EAP) teleconnection pattern.A negative relationship is found between the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) and precipitation extremes over the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River.In contrast,light rainfall processes are independent from the SST and EASM variations.     

Seasonal Variations of Observed Raindrop Size Distribution in East China

Seasonal variations of rainfall microphysics in East China are investigated using data from the observations of a twodimensional video disdrometer and a vertically pointing micro rain radar. The precipitation and rain drop size distribution(DSD) characteristics are revealed for different rain types and seasons. Summer rainfall is dominated by convective rain,while during the other seasons the contribution of stratiform rain to rainfall amount is equal to or even larger than that of convective rain. The mean mass-weighted diameter versus the generalized intercept parameter pairs of convective rain are plotted roughly around the "maritime" cluster, indicating a maritime nature of convective precipitation throughout the year in East China. The localized rainfall estimators, i.e., rainfall kinetic energy–rain rate, shape–slope, and radar reflectivity–rain rate relations are further derived. DSD variability is believed to be a major source of diversity of the aforementioned derived estimators. These newly derived relations would certainly improve the accuracy of rainfall kinetic energy estimation, DSD retrieval, and quantitative precipitation estimation in this specific region.     

Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Extreme Hourly Precipitation over Eastern China in the Warm Season

Based on hourly precipitation data in eastern China in the warm season during 1961-2000,spatial distributions of frequency for 20 mm h 1 and 50 mm h 1 precipitation were analyzed,and the criteria of short-duration rainfall events and severe rainfall events are discussed.Furthermore,the percentile method was used to define local hourly extreme precipitation;based on this,diurnal variations and trends in extreme precipitation were further studied.The results of this study show that,over Yunnan,South China,North China,and Northeast China,the most frequent extreme precipitation events occur most frequently in late afternoon and/or early evening.In the Guizhou Plateau and the Sichuan Basin,the maximum frequency of extreme precipitation events occurs in the late night and/or early morning.And in the western Sichuan Plateau,the maximum frequency occurs in the middle of the night.The frequency of extreme precipitation (based on hourly rainfall measurements) has increased in most parts of eastern China,especially in Northeast China and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River,but precipitation has decreased significantly in North China in the past 50 years.In addition,stations in the Guizhou Plateau and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River exhibit significant increasing trends in hourly precipitation extremes during the nighttime more than during the daytime.     

MULTI-TIMESCALE VARIATIONS OF SOMALI JET AND ITS RELATION WITH PRECIPITATION IN CHINA

Based on the ERA reanalysis winds data, the multi-time scale variations of Somali jet are analyzed synthetically. The jet’s influences on rainfall in China on interannual, interdecadal and sub-monthly scales are also studied using correlation and composite analyses. The results demonstrate that the interdecadal variations of the jet are significant.The Somali jet became weaker in the 1960 s and became the weakest in the early 1970 s before enhancing slowly in the late 1970 s. Moreover, the relation between the Somali jet and summer precipitation in China is close, but varies on different timescales. Preliminary analysis shows that the intensity variations in May and June during the early days of establishment are well correlated with summer precipitation in China. The Somali jet intensity on the interdecadal scale is closely related with interdecadal variations of the precipitation in China. Regardless of leading or contemporaneous correlation, the correlations between the Somali jet intensity and the rainfall in northern and southern China show obvious interdecadal variations. Moreover, the link between the anomalies of the jet intensity in May-August and precipitation evolution on synoptic scale in China is further studied. China has more rainfall with positive anomalies of the Somali jet but less rainfall with negative anomalies during the active period of the jet. The influence of positive Somali jet anomalies on China precipitation is more evident.     

IMPACT OF TROPICAL INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATIONS ON THE PRECIPITATION OF GUANGDONG IN JUNES

The impact of tropical intraseasonal oscillations on the precipitation of Guangdong in Junes and its physical mechanism are analyzed using 30-yr (1979 to 2008), 86-station observational daily precipitation of Guangdong and daily atmospheric data from NCEP-DOE Reanalysis. It is found that during the annually first rainy season (April to June), the modulating effect of the activity of intraseasonal oscillations propagating eastward along the equator (MJO) on the June precipitation in Guangdong is different from that in other months. The most indicative effect of MJO on positive (negative) anomalous precipitation over the whole or most of the province is phase 3 (phase 6) of strong MJO events in Junes. A Northwest Pacific subtropical high intensifies and extends westward during phase 3. Water vapor transporting along the edge of the subtropical high from Western Pacific enhances significantly the water vapor flux over Guangdong, resulting in the enhancement of the precipitation. The condition is reverse during phase 6. The mechanism for which the subtropical high intensifies and extends westward during phase 3 is related to the atmospheric response to the asymmetric heating over the eastern Indian Ocean. Analyses of two cases of sustained strong rainfall of Guangdong in June 2010 showed that both of them are closely linked with a MJO state which is both strong and in phase 3, besides the effect from a westerly trough. It is argued further that the MJO activity is indicative of strong rainfall of Guangdong in June. The results in the present work are helpful in developing strategies for forecasting severe rainfall in Guangdong and extending, combined with the outputs of dynamic forecast models, the period of forecasting validity.     

THE EFFECT OF EQUATORIAL CENTRAL PACIFIC SSTAS ON THE INTERANNUAL VARIATION OF PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHWEST CHINA DURING SPRING

The interannual variations of rainfall over southwest China (SWC) during spring and its relationship with sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the Pacific are analyzed, based on monthly mean precipitation data from 26 stations in SWC between 1961 and 2010, NCEP/NCAR re-analysis data, and Hadley global SST data. Sensitivity tests are conducted to assess the response of precipitation in SWC to SSTAs over two key oceanic domains, using the global atmospheric circulation model ECHAM5. The interannual variation of rainfall over SWC in spring is very significant. There are strong negative (positive) correlation coefficients between the anomalous precipitation over SWC and SSTAs over the equatorial central Pacific (the mid-latitude Pacific) during spring. Numerical simulations show that local rainfall in the northwest of the equatorial central Pacific is suppressed, and a subtropical anticyclone circulation anomaly is produced, while a cyclonic circulation anomaly in the mid-latitude western Pacific occurs, when the equatorial Pacific SSTAs are in a cold phase in spring. Anomalous northerly winds appear in the northeastern part of SWC in the lower troposphere. Precipitation increases over the Maritime Continent of the western equatorial Pacific, while a cyclonic circulation anomaly appears in the northwest of the western equatorial Pacific. A trough over the Bay of Bengal enhances the southerly flow in the south of SWC. The trough also enhances the transport of moisture to SWC. The warm moisture intersects with anomalous cold air over the northeast of SWC, and so precipitation increases during spring. On the interannual time scale, the impacts of the mid-latitude Pacific SSTAs on rainfall in SWC during spring are not significant, because the mid-latitude Pacific SSTAs are affected by the equatorial central Pacific SSTAs; that is, the mid-latitude Pacific SSTAs are a feedback to the circulation anomaly caused by the equatorial central Pacific SSTAs.     

AN ANALYSIS OF DISTRIBUTION AND MESOSCALE STRUCTURE OF PRECIPITATION ABOUT LANDFALL TROPICAL CYCLONE KOPPU (0915)

Observation from automatic weather stations, radars and TRMM satellites are employed to investigate the precipitation distribution of tropical cyclone (TC) Koppu (0915) that made landfall on Guangdong province in 2009. The results show that the precipitation of landfall TC Koppu is featured by significant asymmetry and mesoscale structure, and occurs mainly to the left of its moving path. By examining the sea surface temperature (SST), water vapor flux, Q vector, vertical wind shear of environment etc., it is found out that the distribution of SST, water vapor convergence, low-level convective ascending and vertical wind shear facilitates the TC precipitation to take place to the left of the TC moving path. The mesoscale structure separated by Barnes band-pass filter presents that the precipitation of landfall KOPPU has some organized mesoscale spiral structures, which is around the TC center and composed of the form of belts or blocks. The heavy local rainfall of landfall TC Koppu is primarily associated with the rainfall due to mesoscale spiral structure.     

Evaluation and Analysis of RegCM3 Simulated Summer Rainfall over the Huaihe River Basin of China

This study evaluates the ability of the Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics(ICTP)version 3 Regional Climate Model(RegCM3) in simulating the summer rainfall amount and distribution and large-scale circulation over the Huaihe River basin of China.We conducted the simulation for the period of 1982-2001 and the wet year of 2003 to test the ensemble simulation capacity of RegCM3.First,by comparing the simulated rainfall amount and distribution against the observations,it is found that RegCM3 can reproduce the rainfall pattern and its annual variations.In addition,the simulated spatial patterns of 850-hPa wind and specific humidity fields are close to the observations,although the wind speed and humidity values are larger.Finally,the ensemble simulation of RegCM3 for summer 2003 failed to capture the spatial distribution and underestimated the magnitude of the precipitation anomalies,and the reasons are analyzed.     

CLIMATIC CHARACTERISTICS OF TYPHOON PRECIPITATION OVER CHINA

The spatio-temporal characteristics of typhoon precipitation over China are analyzed in this study. The results show that typhoon precipitation covers most of central-eastern China. Typhoon precipitation gradually decreases from the southeastern coastal regions to the northwestern mainland. The maximum annual typhoon precipitation exceeds 700 mm in central-eastern Taiwan and part of Hainan, while the minimum annual typhoon precipitation occurs in parts of Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Shaanxi and Sichuan, with values less than 10 mm. Generally, typhoons produce precipitation over China during April – December with a peak in August. The annual typhoon precipitation time series for observation stations are examined for long-term trends. The results show that decreasing trends exist in most of the stations from 1957 to 2004 and are statistically significant in parts of Taiwan, Hainan, coastal Southeast China and southern Northeast China. The anomaly of typhoon precipitation mainly results from that of the general circulation over Asia and the Walker Cell circulation over the equatorial central and eastern Pacific. Typhoon torrential rain is one of the extreme rainfall events in the southeastern coastal regions and parts of central mainland. In these regions, torrential rains are mostly caused by typhoons.     

THE IMPACTS OF MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION ON SPRING RAINFALL IN EAST CHINA

Phase composite analyses are conducted to investigate the possible effect of the Madden–Julian oscillation(MJO)on the spring rainfall anomalies in East China by using the Real-time Multivariate MJO(RMM)index from Australian Meteorological Bureau.The results show that the rainfall anomalies over the mid-and lower-valley of Yangtze River are positive when the MJO shifts eastward to the mid-and eastern-Indian Ocean,and anomalous precipitation over South China are positive when the MJO moves further eastward to the maritime continent,whereas spring rainfall anomalies over East China are negative in the other MJO episodes.The MJO impacts on the precipitation over East China result from the changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation as well as vorticity and water vapor transportation in the mid-and lower-troposphere.     

INTERCOMPARISON OF THE INTERDECADAL VARIATIONS OF SUMMER PRECIPITATION IN CHINA SIMULATED BY AOGCMS FROM THE IPCC-DDC

Simulations of the interdecadal variations of summer rainfall over China are assessed from 5 coupled AOGCMs from the Data Distribution Center (DDC) of the Intergovernmental Panel in Climate Change (IPCC) under the IPCC-Special Report in Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenario. We examined their ability in simulating the interdecadal variations of summer precipitation over China from 1951 to 1990. The difference before and after the mid-1960’s and the late 1970’s is given respectively to check the capability of the models, especially in reproducing the rainfall jump in North China. We also investigated the interdecadal variations simulated by the models in the 1990’s and the average of 2001-2020 in the future under the scenario A2 and B2. The analysis shows that the current AOGCMs is not good enough in simulating the interdecadal variations of summer precipitation in China. The interdecadal variations of summer rainfall simulated by most of the models cannot reproduce the observation in North China. Higher resolution models are suggested to well simulate the interdecadal variability in regional scale.     

OBSERVATION RESEARCH FOR THE MEASURING RAINFALL CAPACITY OF TRMM/TMI-85.5G BASED ON PRECIPITATION DATA DURING THE HEAVY RAIN EXPERIMENT IN SOUTHERN CHINA

The capacity of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Satellite for measuring rainfall was examined by using TMI-85.5 GHz microwave image data and precipitation data during a heavy rainfall experiment in southern China. From comparisons with the distribution of rain amount in an hour with BB T of 85.5 GHz microwave, it is clear that the center of heavy rain corresponds with an area of low BB T value. The location and shape of BB T distribution is similar to that of precipitation, and the larger the rainfall rates, the lower the BB T . A statistic analysis shows that the correlation coefficients between BB T and rain rates is negative and significant. Especially, when the rain rate is over 7 mm/h, the correlation degree between BB T and rain rates is more significant. The results shows that TRMM/TMI-85.5 G has great ability to measure convective heavy rain.     

The variation of evaporation over South China and its relationships to precipitation

The evaporation rate over South China is estimated based on the Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation(CMAP)data and the NCEP/DOE reanalysis II data from 1979 to 2007. The temporal variation of evaporation over South China and its relationship to precipitation are discussed. Climatologically,the evaporation rate over South China is the largest in July and smallest in March.In spring and summer,the evaporation rate is approximately one half of the precipitation rate.However,the evaporation rate is approximately equal to the precipitation rate in fall and winter.The year-to-year variation of the evaporation rate over South China is quite in phase with that of the precipitation rate in the period from February to May but out of phase with that of the precipitation rate in early winter.Over South China there is a pronounced decreasing trend in the evaporation in colder seasons and a positive correlation between the evaporation variation and the rainfall variation in spring.In summer,the abnormality of rainfall over South China is closely related to the anomalous evaporation over the northeastern part of the South China Sea and its eastern vicinity.In winter,the rainfall variation in South China has a close linkage with the evaporation variation in a belt area covering the eastern Arabian Sea,the Bay of Bengal,the southeastern periphery of the Plateau,the southern part of South China Sea and the central part of Indonesia.     

Representativeness of Four Precipitation Observational Networks of China

Four precipitation observational networks with varied station densities are maintained in China. They are: the Global Climate Observation System (GCOS) Surface Network (GSN), the national Reference Climate Network (RCN), the national Basic Meteorological Network (BMN), and the national Ordinary Meteorological Network (OMN). The GSN, RCN, BMN, and the merged network of RCN and BMN (R&B) have been widely used in climatology and climate change studies. In this paper, the impact of the usage of different networks on the precipitation climatology of China is evaluated by using the merged dataset of All Station Network (ASN) as a benchmark. The results show that all networks can capture the main features of the country average precipitation and its changing trends. The differences of average annual precipitation of the various networks from that of the ASN are less than 50 mm ( 10%). All networks can successfully detect the rising trend of the average annual precipitation during 1961-2009, with the R&B exhibiting the best representativeness (only 2.90% relative difference) and the GSN the poorest (39.77%). As to the change trends of country average monthly precipitation, the networks can be ranked in descending order as R&B (1.27%), RCN (2.35%), BMN (4.17%), and GSN (7.46%), and larger relative differences appear from August to November. The networks produce quite consistent spatial patterns of annual precipitation change trends, and all show an increasing trend of precipitation in Northwest and Southeast China, and a decreasing trend in North China, Northeast China, and parts of central China. However, the representativeness of the BMN and R&B are better in annual and seasonal precipitation trends, in spite of the fact that they are still far from satisfactory. The relative differences of trends in some months and regions even reach more than 50%. The results also show that the representativeness of the RCN for country average precipitation is higher than that of the BMN because the RCN has a more homogeneous distribution of stations.     

Projection of Future Precipitation Change over China with a High-Resolution Global Atmospheric Model

Projections of future precipitation change over China are studied based on the output of a global AGCM, ECHAM5, with a high resolution of T319 (equivalent to 40 km). Evaluation of the model’s performance in simulating present-day precipitation shows encouraging results. The spatial distributions of both mean and extreme precipitation, especially the locations of main precipitation centers, are reproduced reasonably. The simulated annual cycle of precipitation is close to the observed. The performance of the model over eastern China is generally better than that over western China. A weakness of the model is the overestimation of precipitation over northern and western China. Analyses on the potential change in precipitation projected under the A1B scenario show that both annual mean precipitation intensity and extreme precipitation would increase significantly over southeastern China. The percentage increase in extreme precipitation is larger than that of mean precipitation. Meanwhile, decreases in mean and extreme precipitation are evident over the southern Tibetan Plateau. For precipitation days, extreme precipitation days are projected to increase over all of China. Both consecutive dry days over northern China and consecutive wet days over southern China would decrease.     

FEATURES OF DRYNESS AND WETNESS IN GUANGDONG PROVINCE OVER THE PAST FOUR DECADES

Precipitation data from 86 observing Stations for the past four decades (from the first operational use to 1994) are used to study and discuss the character of annually mean distribution in Guangdong. Grades of dryness and wetness on a year-to-year basis are determined and preliminary features of dryness and wetness are discussed for the whole of the province and individual regions according to a 5-grade standard of division. The result has shown that there is on an average a rainfall of 1748 mm per year across the province, with four major centers of maxima (of annual rainfall over 2000 mm) at Enping, Qingyuan, Haifeng and Longmen. For the mean across the province, the years 1959. 1961. 1973. 1975, 1991 are anomalously wet and the years 1956, 1963, 1977 and 1991 are anomalously dry. of them, 1973 is the unusually wet year (with the absolute value of precipitation anomaly over twice as large as the standard deviation) and 1956 and 1963 are the usual dry years. For the occurrence frequency of unusually wetness and dryness over individual river valleys in the province, there are more years of dryness in the valleys of the Xijiang and Dongjiang Rivers. More years of wetness in that of the Jianjiang River, and only years of wetness instead of years of dryness in the valleys of Beijiang and Hanjiang Rivers.     

Analysis of the Role Played by Circulation in the Persistent Precipitation over South China in June 2010

South China(SC) experienced persistent heavy rain in June 2010.The climatic anomalies and related mechanism are analyzed in this study.Results show that the large-scale circulation pattern favorable for precipitation was maintained.In the upper level,the South Asian High and westerly jet stream provided a divergent circulation over SC.In the middle and low levels,an anomalous strong subtropical high(STH) extended to the South China Sea.The southwesterly monsoon flow along the northwest flank of the STH transported abundant water vapor from the western North Pacific,the Bay of Bengal,and the South China Sea to SC.The precipitation can be classified into two types:the West Siberia low(WSL)-induced low-level cyclone mode,and the STH-induced low-level jet mode.STH and WSL indices are defined to estimate the influence of these two systems,respectively.Analysis shows that both are critical for precipitation,but their respective contributions differ from year to year.In 2010,both were important factors for the heavy rainfall in June.     

A STUDY ON THE PRECIPITATION CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA BEFORE AND AFTER THE MONSOON ONSET

This paper presents a study on the temporal and spatial variations of the precipitation over the area of the South China Sea (SCS) during the monsoon onset period. The data used are from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observations between April and June over the nine years from 1998 to 2006. This study focuses on the central and northern part of South China Sea (110-120°E, 10-20°N). Based on the observations, the 27th pentad is selected as the occurrence time of the SCS monsoon onset. The conclusions are as follows. (1) After the monsoon onset, the specific area, defined as the ratio of the number of pixels with certain type of precipitation to the number of total pixels, extends significantly for both convective and stratiform rain, with the latter having a larger magnitude. The specific rainfall, defined as the ratio of the amount of certain type of precipitation to the total amount of precipitation, decreases for convective rain and increases for stratiform rain. (2) Results also show significant increase in heavy rain and decrease in light rain after the monsoon onset. (3) Changes are also observed in the rainfall horizontal distributions over the SCS before and after the monsoon onset, manifested by the relocation of precipitation minima for both convective and stratiform rain. (4) After the monsoon onset, the variability in characteristics of precipitation vertical structure increases significantly, leading to more latent heat release and consequently deeper convection. Meanwhile, the bright-band altitude of stratiform precipitation is also elevated.