春季沙尘天气对内蒙古地区颗粒物污染影响研究

利用内蒙古11个环保监测站提供的2014—2016年颗粒物浓度监测日均值和同期沙尘天气观测资料,从统计分析和个例剖析两方面探究了沙尘天气对颗粒物污染年变化的影响,研究表明:近3 a春季内蒙古沙尘天气的发生呈逐年增加的态势,中西部是沙尘天气频发地带,与之相对应,中西部地区颗粒物浓度的年变化高于东部,表明沙尘天气对颗粒物浓度的影响显著;春季沙尘天气对PM_(10)浓度的影响强于PM_(2.5),而当地供暖排放与之相反;沙尘输送以粗颗粒物为主,当地颗粒物污染排放以细颗粒物为主;沙尘暴过程对颗粒物污染的影响明显大于扬沙过程。     

宁波地区一次重污染天气过程的成因分析

以2015年1月25—26日宁波地区重度霾污染过程为例,利用常规地面站资料、颗粒物观测数据、M ODIS产品、气溶胶激光雷达数据、探空数据及轨迹模拟模式,从气象条件和污染源输送分析了此次污染过程的形成原因。结果表明,污染过程颗粒物主要集中在近地面800 m以下,北方弱冷空气南下携带的污染物近距离输送造成宁波地区颗粒物浓度迅速增加。中低层旺盛的西南暖湿气流使该地区维持高湿,空气中大量水汽包裹颗粒物下沉,造成污染加剧。逆温和高湿的气象条件,不利于污染物的扩散,导致颗粒物浓度积累增长。污染过程结束于北方强冷空气南下时,此时风速增加,扩散条件转好。     

嵌套网格空气质量预报模式系统的发展与应用

主要综述中国科学院大气物理研究所自主开发的嵌套网格空气质量预报模式系统(NAQPMS,Nested Air Quality Prediction Modeling System)的历史发展与应用情况.模式发展伊始为欧拉污染物输送实用模型,利用其研究东亚硫氧化物的跨国输送问题,得出中国对于周边国家的输送量不大的结论; 在系统中嵌入适合东亚的起沙机制模块,用来模拟沙尘发生、输送及沉降等过程,估算亚洲大陆沙尘气溶胶对海洋地区的输送与沉降通量,为研究海洋生物地球化学循环提供基础数据; 利用该系统研究沙尘及其土壤粒子对酸雨的中和作用,发现沙尘输送对东亚酸雨的分布影响很大; 发展城市尺度高分辨率气象和空气质量预报技术,使模式水平分辨率达到500 m,并应用于台北高浓度臭氧和PM10的模拟; 研究和集成区域及城市尺度大气污染预报理论和模拟技术,研制成目前的嵌套网格空气质量预报模式系统,以探讨不同尺度各种污染(如沙尘暴、城市光化学烟雾、酸雨、高浓度悬浮颗粒物等)的变化规律.在模式系统中初步建立资料同化模块,开展大气化学成分及沙尘输送模拟的资料同化研究.系统已经在北京、上海、深圳、郑州等城市环境监测中心实施空气质量的实时预报.未来,系统将集成到全球环境大气输送模式(GEATM),以实现从城市群到全球具有双向耦合功能的模式系统.     

北京及周边地区一次大气污染过程的数值模拟

利用中尺度气象数值模式MM5与第三代空气质量模式系统Models-3／CMAQ,对2002年10月北京及周边地区一次典型大气污染过程进行数值模拟研究,并对其形成原因进行了分析。结果表明,污染物PM。模拟峰值出现时间与实际观测浓度峰值出现时间较为一致,模式的模拟效果较好。北京地区PM10浓度除受北京当地排放源的影响外,在特殊气象条件下,外地污染源对北京地区PM10的影响也比较大。要控制北京地区PM10浓度,除了控制北京当地的排放源外,对外地污染源的控制也需要给予高度重视。     

激光雷达和微波辐射计对邢台市一次沙尘天气的探测分析

利用气溶胶激光雷达、地基多通道微波辐射计资料,反演得到邢台市2017年5月3 5日沙尘天气过程前后的消光系数、退偏比和高空的温度、湿度变化,结合后向轨迹模式等资料,分析了沙尘天气过程前后的天气形势、颗粒物污染特征及来源、消光系数、退偏比等的变化。结果表明:来源于新疆北部的沙尘气溶胶受地面冷锋东移南下影响,以西北路径远距离输送沉降是导致邢台市颗粒污染物浓度骤升的主要原因,而本地大风的出现会导致由地面向高空扩散形成的沙尘污染次高峰,其中细颗粒物PM10的浓度升幅远大于PM_(2.5)浓度升幅;在高空2 000 m附近集聚的沙尘气溶胶可以形成消光系数大于1 km-1的强值区,沙尘聚集区域的退偏比平均值为0.252,与下层退偏比平均值为0.041的区域形成一个明显的沙尘分界线,消光系数的强值中心和退偏比的高低值分界线可以很好地表征出高空沙尘粒子的沉降变化;在高空沙尘沉降和地面大风引起的沙尘天气时,地面温度都出现了升高态势,在地面颗粒污染物浓度出现剧烈增加前,整层大气湿度呈现陡降趋势,而在颗粒污染物浓度处于高值波动阶段,整层大气湿度均维持在一个较低的水平。     

非结构网格空气质量模式对东亚强沙尘暴的初步模拟研究

基于中国科学院大气物理研究所自主研发的嵌套网格空气质量数值预报模式(NAQPMS)和英国帝国理工学院应用计算与建模小组(AMCG)研制的有限元流体模式(Fluidity),构建了非结构网格沙尘传输模式(Fluidity-Dust),并模拟再现了2010年3月19~22日东亚强沙尘暴整个暴发、演变的三维立体动态过程,从整体上对这次沙尘事件有了全新的直观认识和了解。通过利用FY-2D卫星沙尘反演资料及MODIS(Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer)卫星反演的气溶胶光学厚度(AOD)资料,可对模拟结果进行整体上对比验证;同时,利用中国9个城市站点的PM10(空气动力学当量直径小于等于10μm的颗粒物,即可吸入颗粒物)地面观测资料以及日本多个站点的激光雷达资料,逐一对比分析了不同地区PM10的时空分布以及沙尘传输经过时的垂直分布情况;并与NAQPMS模式的沙尘模拟结果进行了模式间的对比分析。对比结果均表明:该模式具有较好的模拟能力,能很好地模拟再现整个沙尘暴过程,为今后进一步运用自适应变网格技术以实现对沙尘暴的高精度追踪模拟奠定了基础。不同模式比较是量化模拟不确定性的重要方法。以往沙尘输送模式比较研究表明:起沙量模拟的不确定性是沙尘暴数值模拟的最大不确定来源。本文通过两个具有相同起沙方案的模式对同一沙尘事件的模拟,发现不同的平流方案以及不同的沉降计算也会对沙尘过程模拟产生重要影响。     

Models-3空气质量模式对兰州市污染物输送的模拟

较详细地介绍了美国环保总局的第三代空气质量模式系统Models-3的特点,并且针对兰州市冬季采暖期污染严重的特点,选取2002年12月份的个例,将兰州市最新的大气污染源资料加入模式中．对模式进行调试并检验了该模式对兰州污染的模拟性能。从模式对SO2,NO2和O3等几种大气污染物浓度的模拟结果与监测资料对比分析,表明该模式系统较好地模拟出了SO2,NO2的空间分布格局,模拟结果与监测结果比较吻合,而且模式模拟的污染物浓度场比较均匀;模式模拟的O3的日变化规律与资料分析结论基本一致,也符合O3的生成机理。因此该模式系统对于复杂地形条件下的城市污染物输送具有一定的模拟能力。     

石家庄大气污染与沙尘天气的关系分析

利用2002—2006年石家庄市逐时气象资料和环境监测资料,分析了8次典型沙尘天气对空气污染的影响。结果表明:沙尘天气的首要污染物均是可吸入颗粒物,春季中度以上污染日平均出现在沙尘日当日或次日;造成石家庄沙尘天气污染源分外来型、本地型以及二者共同影响型3种;其中,本地型沙尘污染多受冷锋影响,PM10浓度与风速呈正相关。而外来型污染多处于弱气压场控制,PM10浓度与南风呈反相关,而当风向转偏北时则利于污染物积累。     

CAM5模式中两气溶胶模块的评估

公共大气模式 (CAM) 被广泛用于气候变化研究中,其5.0版中包含两个气溶胶模块MAM3和MOZART。利用AeroCom (2000年) 多模式中值、IMPROVE (1988—2005年) 和EMEP (2002—2008年) 站点资料对两模块进行了评估。结果表明:MAM3和MOZART模块都能很好地模拟硫酸盐气溶胶的季节变化, 与观测资料相比,模拟结果均在夏季偏高, 相关系数均在0.89左右,2倍误差内。两模块能较好地模拟黑碳气溶胶的时空分布特征, 与观测资料相比,模拟结果偏低,相关系数均在0.62左右, 排放源偏小而清除率偏大是造成黑碳气溶胶偏低的主要原因。两模块对有机碳气溶胶的模拟结果差别较大,大部分站点在3倍误差内,MAM3的结果偏高92.1%,MOZART则偏低58.1%;两模块一次有机碳的结果接近,差异主要源自对二次有机碳的模拟。两模块模拟的海盐气溶胶偏大,这主要是清除率偏小造成的。两模块采用相同的起沙机制,但起沙系数有差异, MAM3的沙尘源强偏大近两倍,模拟总量较大;MOZART的沙尘源强则偏低40%左右,模拟沙尘总量较低。即模式中气溶胶的输送和扩散过程偏弱,说明清除机制还有待改进。     

沙尘暴天气数值预报系统及其预报效果检验

沙尘暴天气数值预报系统包括区域大气模式、陆面过程模式、风沙模式(包括风蚀、输送和沉降模式)和地理信息系统。用该系统对2002年3月20日和4月7日2次沙尘天气进行了预报试验，利用地面观测资料和卫星观测资料对模式输出的主要沙尘天气预报产品进行了对比分析。分析结果认为，沙尘暴天气数值预报系统对沙通量、尘通量和垂直积分质量有很好的预报能力，但仍需改进陆面参数和沙尘气溶胶的初始值。     

中国西南和华南地区硫沉降数值模拟

利用CMAQ(Community Multi-scale Air Quality)模式模拟了中国西南和华南地区的硫沉降。模式中详细考虑了气象过程、气相与液相化学过程、非均相化学过程、气溶胶过程和干湿沉降过程对SO2输送、转化和沉降过程的影响。通过与IMPACTS小流域的观测资料的比较,显示了该模式系统能够较好地模拟SO2在大气中的转化以及干湿沉降过程。在此基础之上,分析了不同季节该区域的硫沉降和向外输送的情况,并且模拟了该区域2002年全年的硫沉降分布状况,这为该区域有效地污染治理奠定了基础。     

新一代天气雷达产品在人工增雨作业中的应用

将新一代天气雷达产品和常规天气分析结合起来对 2 0 0 2年 5月 1 0日闽西武平县人工增雨作业条件和效果进行综合分析。结果表明 :(1 )将新一代天气雷达的众多产品结合常规天气分析 ,可提高人工增雨作业和效果评价的科学性、准确性 ;(2 )人工增雨作业取得明显效果 ,增雨 1 1× 1 0 8m3。     

AMSR-E卫星资料陆面干扰的气候特征分析

先进微波辐射计(AMSR-E)的低频特性使其更容易受到无线电频率干扰(RFI),本文首先对比了谱差法和双主成分分析(Double Principal Component Analysis,DPCA)方法这两种RFI识别算法的差异,验证了DPCA方法的适用性,然后选用DPCA方法对2002年9月—2011年9月AMSR-E陆面升轨亮温月平均数据中的RFI进行识别,并分析其多年变化特征。DPCA方法可以有效地识别出AMSR-E全球范围内陆地亮温数据中的RFI分布情况。识别结果显示:1)C波段中的RFI主要分布在美国、东亚及印度—阿拉伯半岛地区;X波段主要分布在欧洲及东亚地区。2)各区域的RFI空间位置及强度随时间会发生变化,其原因可能是由于基础设施及使用无线电频谱的变化造成。3)不同区域月平均亮温数据中识别出的RFI信号数量存在季节变化,并且C波段中识别出的RFI数量随时间减少,X波段中随时间增加。     

The water phase of precipitation—a comparison between observed, estimated and predicted values

The results from two projects aimed at improving precipitation products for the Norwegian Road Authorities are presented and compared in this paper: A precipitation forecast with water phase type (rain, sleet, snow) from the HIRLAM weather prediction model, and a precipitation type estimate based on synoptic observations and weather radar data. Operational forecasts of water phase type from HIRLAM are biased towards predicting too many cases with snow. This is caused by the mainly positive difference between model terrain and real topography. It is shown that additional calculations of snow melting based on temperature and humidity in the lowest model level reduce this error. The second product presented here is a precipitation type estimate based on synoptic observations and weather radar data. Synoptic observations of 2 m-temperature and dew point temperature at 3 h temporal resolution are used to estimate the water phase of precipitation at ground level. The dew point temperature is converted to relative humidity. Temperature and relative humidity are interpolated in space using a digital elevation model after deriving local vertical gradients of the two variables. The water phase is estimated and merged with the actual radar precipitation estimate every 15 min. The result is a high resolution image showing the intensity and the water phase of precipitation. A comparison to observed water phase types at the synoptic stations for the winter season 2002/2003 shows that the percentage correct is 86%. The Probability of Detection is 0.84 for rain and 0.97 for snow. For January 2002, the observed, estimated, and forecasted water phase types are compared at an independent set of precipitation stations in Southern Norway. The results confirm the good quality of the precipitation type estimate and show that the adjustment of HIRLAM water phase type to real topography improves the forecast in cases with observed rain.     

Four-dimensional variational data assimilation experiments for a heavy rain case during the 2002 IOP in China

A heavy rainfall event along the mei-yu front during 22-23 June 2002 was chosen for this study. To assess the impact of the routine and additional IOP (intensive observation period) radiosonde observations on the mesoscale heavy rainfall forecast, a series of four-dimensional variational (4DVAR) data assimilation and model simulation experiments was conducted using nonhydrostatic mesoscale model MM5 and the MM5 4DVAR system. The effects of the intensive observations in the different areas on the heavy rainfall forecast were also investigated. The results showed that improvement of the forecast skill for mesoscale heavy rainfall intensity was possible from the assimilation of the IOP radiosonde observations. However,the impact of the IOP observations on the forecast of the rainfall pattern was not significant. Initial conditions obtained through the 4DVAR experiments with a 12-h assimilation window were capable of improving the 24-h forecast. The simulated results after the assimilation showed that it would be best to perform the intensive radiosonde observations in the upstream of the rainfall area and in the moisture passageway area at the same time. Initial conditions created by the 4DVAR led to the low-level moisture convergence over the rainfall area, enhanced frontogenesis and upward motion within the mei-yu front,and intensified middle- and high-level unstable stratification in front of the mei-yu front. Consequently,the heavy rainfall forecast was improved.     

黄海海雾天气气候特征及其成因分析

利用2002-2008年的地面观测资料、青岛小浮标站资料、海洋大气综合资料、NCEP再分析资料和卫星云图等资料,对黄海海雾的天气气候特征、环流型和相关的水文、气象因子进行分析研究.结果表明,黄海海雾呈现逐年递增的年际变化,且集中发生在春夏季,自南向北雾季逐渐推迟,发生频数增多;一日中主要出现在夜间至早晨.黄海海雾可归纳为冷锋型、高压后部型和均压场型三种天气类型.海雾是流入黄海的黑潮暖流分支与沿岸的冷水流相遇,在适宜的海温、气海温差、大气稳定度和风场等水文、气象条件下形成的,这些条件可为海雾发生、发展的预报提供一些参考依据.     

大西洋风暴活动预测的一个潜在高效能的预测方案

A new empirical approach for the seasonal prediction of annual Atlantic tropical storm number (ATSN) was developed using precipitation and 500 hPa geopotential height data from the preceding January-February and April-May. The 2.5º×2.5º resolution reanalysis data from both the US National Center for Environmental Prediction/the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) were applied. The model was cross-validated using data from 1979-2002. The ATSN predictions from the two reanalysis models were correlated with the observations with the anomaly correlation coefficients (ACC) of 0.79 (NCEP/NCAR) and 0.78 (ECMWF) and the multi-year mean absolute prediction errors (MAE) of 1.85 and 1.76, respectively. When the predictions of the two models were averaged, the ACC increased to 0.90 and the MAE decreased to 1.18, an exceptionally high score. Therefore, this new empirical approach has the potential to improve the operational prediction of the annual tropical Atlantic storm frequency.     

Observational and Numerical Simulation Study of a Sequence of Eight Atmospheric Density Currents in Northern Spain

A sequence of eight atmospheric density current fronts occurred in consecutive days are identified and analyzed using micrometeorological time series and numerical simulations. Observations were collected in the context of the INTERCLE project, which took place from September 2002 to November 2003 at the CIBA (Research Centre for the Lower Atmosphere) site located over the northern Spanish plateau. Numerical simulations used the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model with fine horizontal resolution (1 km). Both observations and simulations agree that the arrival of the density currents are characterized by a sharp change in temperature, wind velocity, wind direction and specific humidity and a source of intermittent turbulence. However, comparison between model and observations shows that the model predicts the intrusion of the density currents earlier than is observed. In addition, wavelet techniques applied to the data help distinguish the different scales present in the events, and therefore can reveal traces of gravity waves induced by the arrival of the density currents.     

利用ASTER数据反演南京城市地表温度

利用针对ASTER数据的分裂窗算法,反演了南京城市地表温度,并用实际观测资料和同步的MODIS数据对反演结果进行了验证,结果表明：基于ASTER数据的地表温度反演结果与实际观测资料相差0.9℃,与MODIS数据的反演结果具有较好的空间一致性;基于ASTER数据反演的当日南京地表温度在23～56℃范围内,城市地表温度普遍高于35℃,市内公园地表温度略低,多位于30～35℃,长江水体温度低于30℃,地表温度存在明显的空间差异;南京城市夏季白天存在明显＂热岛效应＂,热岛强度的空间差异与南京城市发展、规划有关。     

Modelling frequency distributions of 5 minute-averaged solar radiation indexes using Beta probability functions

Summary ¶Five minute-averaged values of sky clearness, direct and diffuse indices, were used to model the frequency distributions of these variables in terms of optical air mass. From more than four years of solar radiation observations it was found that variations in the frequency distributions of the three indices of optical air mass for Botucatu, Brazil, are similar to those in other places, as published in the literature. The proposed models were obtained by linear combination of normalized Beta probability functions, using the observed distributions derived from three years of data. The versatility of these functions allows modelling of all three irradiance indexes to similar levels of accuracy. A comparison with the observed distributions obtained from one year of observations indicate that the models are able to reproduce the observed frequency distributions of all three indices at the 95% confidence level.Received September 2, 2002; revised February 28, 2003; accepted March 16, 2003 Published online September 10, 2003