海南一次冰雹天气过程成因分析

利用海南岛上常规观测资料,雷达、葵花卫星等非常规观测资料,欧洲中心再分析资料和NCEP全球实时海温,对比分析了2018年3月3日海南冰雹的环境条件及其中尺度特征。结果表明:(1)3月2—4日,大尺度环流特征为中层干冷的W—SW急流、低层SW暖气流及地面西南低压槽。(2)3日的区域大气层结处于稳定转变为不稳定的状态,局地增长的不稳定能量在海风锋的触发下强烈释放,适宜的0～6km垂直风切变,0℃、20℃高度有利于对流单体发展成雹暴单体。(3)2日海南岛附近区域层结稳定,CAPE值偏低;4日海南岛处于低层大风核入口前侧,水汽辐散,海风锋垂直环流被抑制,这些都不利于强对流的发展。(4)此次降雹单体具有多个雷达回波特征,当移入多普勒雷达静锥区后,利用风廓线雷达资料可监测到高层急流脉动下传,0～5km、0～3km垂直风切变相继增大的特征,对判断风暴的演变具有重要参考意义。(5)初生对流单体在地面辐合线和儋州中部露点锋交界处生成,在海风锋北端和海口-澄迈北部露点锋重叠区发展为雹暴单体,雹暴单体前沿的露点锋有新生单体的传播。     

蒙古东部冷涡造成河北中南部雹暴过程的地闪特征分析

应用地面闪电定位系统、多普勒雷达、加密自动雨量站资料,对2007年7月8～9日蒙古东部冷涡天气系统下,发生在河北中南部的两次雹暴过程进行了分析.结果表明:两次雹暴均产生大量地闪活动,且以负地闪占优势,闪电集中发生时段与强对流发生及维持时间相当.雹暴和强降水在时空分布上对应的地闪极性有明显差异,降雹发生在雹暴云团中正地闪最活跃的阶段,正地闪集中出现在强回波中心及其邻近区域,降雹点落在正地闪聚集区附近;对流性强降水云团中负地闪频繁发生,强降水区出现在负地闪密度高值中心附近,负地闪簇集区域预示着对流性强降雨的落区.多单体风暴中:闪电的频率及聚集区域主要取决于雷暴单体的数目、强度和相互接近的程度,其造成的强降雹主要发生在总地闪的活跃期.本次个例分析显示,总闪电频数跃增、正闪频数突增,仅先于降雹数分钟(几乎同时)发生.因此,根据闪电频数变化可监测对流强度的演变和冰雹天气的发生.     

北京城区相继多次降雹的一次强雷暴的闪电特征

受东北冷涡和低层暖湿气流影响,2016年6月10日北京午后爆发了相继5次降冰雹的一次强雷暴天气过程。利用国家“973”项目“雷电重大灾害天气系统的动力—微物理—电过程和成灾机理（雷暴973）”2016年夏季协同观测期间获得的闪电全闪三维定位和多普勒天气雷达等资料,详细分析了此次雹暴的闪电活动和雷达回波特征。此次雹暴过程包括三个孤立的单体相继发展、并合,所分析的4次降雹过程中,总闪电频数在降雹期间都有明显增多,最高可达179 flashes min?1。云闪占全部闪电的80%以上,其中3次降雹前出现正地闪突增,其比例升高,占全部地闪的比例最高达58%。降雹时雷达回波>45 dBZ的面积增大,顶高超过13 km。整个雹暴过程,闪电辐射源主要分布在6～10 km的高度区域,与强回波具有一致性。所分析的4次降雹过程均出现明显的总闪频数跃增,并通过2σ阈值检验,其中3次提前时间为8～18 min,说明总闪频数对于降雹过程有一定的预警能力。     

一次强对流活动中雷电与降水廓线特征研究

利用热带测雨卫星的测雨雷达(PR)和闪电成像传感器(LIS)的逐轨探测结果,通过资料匹配处理方法,并配合常规气象资料,分析了2006年6月29日黄淮地区一次强对流活动中不同类型雷暴单体(Area,LIS探测资料认为近似于雷暴单体)的降水廓线,并分析了降水廓线与雷暴闪电频数的关系。结果表明:该强对流系统的雷暴单体可分为对流降水、层云降水、对流与层云混合降水3种雷暴单体,其中,混合降水雷暴单体数量最多,对流降水雷暴单体数和层云降水雷暴单体数量较少;并且雷暴单体中的闪电大多发生在对流降水区。结果还表明,不同闪电频数的雷暴单体相应的降水廓线差别明显:雷暴中闪电频数越大,5km以上高度廓线给出的雨强越大(对流降水廓线尤其如此),说明雷暴单体中闪电越多时,降水云冻结层以上存在的冰相粒子越多。     

海风锋在渤海西岸局地暴雨过程中的作用

利用常规观测资料、地面加密自动站资料、多普勒雷达观测资料及中尺度TJ-WRF模式输出资料,对2009年7月6日天津宁河地区出现的暴雨天气过程进行了分析,重点分析了渤海湾海风锋对沿岸局地暴雨的触发机理。结果表明：此次局地暴雨过程是在有利天气背景条件下发生的,暴雨发生地存在局地层结不稳定和较好的水汽条件。海风锋本身有一辐合抬升区,区域内有弱对流存在;当海风锋移到局地存在层结不稳定且水汽充足的区域,其抬升区的辐合上升运动迅速加强,从而触发该地区雷暴的新生发展;海风锋与迎面移来的雷暴相遇,会对雷暴的加速发展起到加强作用。利用中尺度WRF模式输出资料进行分析看到,两条辐合线相交处易激发出强雷暴,雷暴出现在近地层大气暖干区的北端、湿空气的交汇处;海风锋对雷暴的新生发展有明显的触发抬升作用。     

线状中尺度对流系统内多个强降水单体的结构演变及闪电活动特征

利用多普勒雷达、SAFIR3000三维闪电定位系统和气象自动站等观测资料,以线状中尺度对流系统内多个γ中尺度强降水单体为研究对象,揭示了单体之间、单体与β中尺度线状对流系统的多种相互关系,设计多种雷达参量对单体的结构演变进行定量化描述,进一步建立了对流单体结构演变与闪电活动的相互关系。得到以下结论：（1）线状中尺度对流系统内顺义、房山、固安、宝坻对流单体分别造成了1 h降雨23、50、27、70 mm,在其演变过程中,顺义单体被另一个单体追逐、供给,房山单体包括2个更小单体的合并过程,而固安、宝坻单体的初生和发展与线状中尺度对流系统是被喂养、吞食的关系。（2）设计的雷达参量V₄₀（40 dBz强回波核的体积大小）、V_40UP-6（6 km高度以上40 dBz强回波核的体积大小）、S_ET11（回波顶在11 km处的回波范围大小）量化描述了单体的三维结构演变特征,F_ic（云闪频数）和F_cg（地闪频数）与上述雷达参量关系密切,如与V_40UP-6的相关系数为0.63—0.97;而F_ic比F_cg更敏感地呼应单体结构的变化。（3）固安单体在成熟阶段,主正电荷区（即辐射点最大密集区所处的地方）维持在较低位置,远低于其他单体在成熟阶段主正电荷区的高度。（4）在对流单体合并后,F_ic和F_cg增大且主正电荷区明显抬升、闪电频数陡增对应降水强度增大、闪电频数峰值超前于降雨强度极值等特征,对灾害天气的预警具有积极意义。     

一次槽后型大暴雨伴冰雹的形成机制和雷达观测分析

利用常规气象观测资料、新一代天气雷达、自动站、NCEP再分析资料等对西北气流形势下一次局地大暴雨伴多次降雹的强对流天气形成机制和对流系统结构进行了精细化分析。结果表明:(1)局地大暴雨伴冰雹发生在西北气流控制和大气层结极不稳定的形势下,14:00(北京时,下同)CAPE较08:00显著增大,为大暴雨和冰雹提供了不稳定能量;对流层低层的水汽含量大值中心为后向和前向传播新生单体的不断生成提供了充分的水汽条件;地面局地加热不均匀,午后地面温度达到对流温度临界值使地面暖气团自由上升,从而产生初始对流回波。在达到热力对流的条件下,地面中尺度辐合线和露点锋对局地大暴雨伴多次冰雹天气的发生有加强触发作用,地面中尺度低压是辐合维持和水汽集中的重要原因。(2)雷达图上,初始回波在周口附近生成、加强并向东南方向移动的过程中,其后侧和右后侧不断有中γ尺度对流单体生成,新生单体经历了积云生成加强、成熟合并、减弱消散阶段,其传播方向和移动方向近于相反,使周口附近强回波呈准静止动态平衡状态而持续存在。随后,在许昌到太康近东西向带状回波的前侧不断有中γ尺度新对流单体生成,并与周口附近后向传播的对流单体相接,排列成西北—东南向的线状多单体回波带,前向传播和后向传播分别经历了后侧减弱和前侧减弱阶段,中间回波在周口附近发展最旺盛。向前和向后两种传播形式多单体结构中的中γ尺度对流单体形成显著的"列车效应"使周口、西华出现局地大暴雨和多次降雹。在平均径向速度图上有中尺度涡旋,西北—东南向线状对流回波带在中低层有辐合—辐散—辐合相间的结构特征,在高层则与中低层相反,线状雷暴系统的形成和演变与强雷暴下沉气流抬升暖湿空气有较大关系,对流单体生成于低层辐合、高层辐散处。     

城市热岛与海风锋叠加作用对一次局地强降水的影响

利用常规观测资料、天津255 m气象塔资料、多普勒雷达资料和VDRAS反演资料及中尺度TJ WRF模式输出资料,对2010年8月16日天津城区出现的一次局地强降水过程进行分析,重点分析了城市热岛与海风锋叠加作用对此次局地强降水的触发机制。结果表明：此次局地强降水发生在低层槽后弱的反环流条件下,具有明显的γ中尺度对流降水特征;城市热岛效应能造成局地的热力不均匀,这对形成地面中尺度辐合线非常有利。海风锋由岸边向市区移动中与中尺度辐合线相遇,能激发局地不稳定能量的释放,从而产生强对流天气。城市热岛对海风锋的移动有明显阻挡作用;当海风锋移到城市热岛效应明显区域附近时,其后侧气流会出现明显分支绕流和爬升现象,而且两者相遇处的辐合上升运动会迅速加强,这为该地不稳定能量的释放及雷暴的发生发展提供了有利的动力热力条件。中尺度TJ WRF模式可以很好地模拟出这一现象。     

2013年宁波地区一次海风锋对雷暴过程影响分析及数值模拟

利用浙江省常规气象站观测资料、地面自动站加密资料、新一代多普勒天气雷达资料、NCEP GFS分析资料以及WRF中尺度模式,对2013年7月29日发生在宁波市地区的一个局地强雷暴天气过程进行了诊断分析和数值模拟。通过对天气环流和数值模拟结果的分析发现：本次强雷暴过程发生在较稳定的大气背景下,主要影响系统是中尺度辐合线海风锋;多普勒雷达出现弱窄带回波时,对应中尺度辐合线海风锋;海风锋向内陆推进时,对应站点温度降低、湿度增大。WRF模式能较好地模拟出此次雷暴过程以及宁波地区低层海风锋环流,高空回流随时间和空间的演变特征;海风锋的锋生造成的地转强迫促使次级环流加强,在东西风辐合线西侧有垂直上升运动出现;通过与敏感试验的对比可知,海陆热力差异是影响雷暴降水强度、海风锋水平垂直环流的重要因素。     

海风辐合线对雷暴系统触发、合并的动热力过程

利用加密自动气象站和雷达监测资料,结合VDRAS资料(其时间分辨率12 min、水平垂直分辨率分别是3和1 km左右),分别针对单纯海风辐合线触发和海风辐合线与已有雷暴系统合并的两个实例,揭示海风辐合线对雷暴系统影响的动力和热力过程。结果表明:(1)在环境系统风很弱时,天津沿海海风伸入内陆的移速约为15~18 km·h~(-1),且海风过后,气温降低、湿度加大。(2)海风辐合线配合地面高不稳定区,从而触发和加强了雷暴系统,对雷暴系统的预警时间可达2 h。(3)雷暴单体在海风辐合线附近产生,这与倾斜海风锋锋面(向海洋一侧倾斜)上的中尺度垂直环流相对应。(4)海风辐合线与雷暴系统合并后,雷暴系统强烈发展是由于海风辐合线附近积聚着水汽,同时也是辐合上升运动大值区的缘故。     

Numerical analysis of a thermotopographically-induced mesoscale circulation in a mountain basin using a non-hydrostatic model

Summary The boundary-layer wind field during weak synoptic conditions is largely controlled by the nature of the landscape. Mesoscale (sub-synoptic) circulations result from horizontal gradients of sensible heat flux due to variation in local topography, variation in surface-cover, and discontinuities such as land-sea contrasts. Such flows are usually referred to as thermally-driven circulations, and are diurnal in nature and often predictable. In this paper we use a state-of-the-art non-hydrostatic computer model to shed light on the physical mechanisms that drive a persistent easterly wind that develops in the afternoon in the Mackenzie Basin, New Zealand. The easterly – Canterbury Plains Breeze (CPB) – is observed early in the afternoon and is often intense, with mean wind speeds reaching up to 12 m s⁻¹. Although computer modelling in mountainous terrain is extremely challenging, the model is able to simulate this circulation satisfactorily. To further investigate the mechanisms that generate the Canterbury Plains Breeze, two additional idealized model experiments are performed. With each experiment, the effects of the synoptic scale wind and the ocean around the South Island, New Zealand were successively removed. The results show that contrary to previous suggestions, the Canterbury Plains Breeze is not an intrusion of the coastal sea breeze or the Canterbury north-easterly, but can be generated by heating of the basin alone. This conclusion highlights the importance of mountain basins and saddles in controlling near-surface wind regimes in complex terrain.     

Continental vegetation as a dynamic component of a global climate model: a preliminary assessment

A simplified vegetation distribution prediction scheme is used in combination with the Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS) and coupled to a version of the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM1) which includes a mixed-layer ocean. Employed in an off-line mode as a diagnostic tool, the scheme predicts a slightly darker and slightly rougher continental surface than when BATS' prescribed vegetation classes are used. The impact of tropical deforestation on regional climates, and hence on diagnosed vegetation, differs between South America and S.E. Asia. In the Amazon, the climatic effects of removing all the tropical forest are so marked that in only one of the 18 deforested grid elements could the new climate sustain tropical forest vegetation whereas in S.E. Asia in seven of the 9 deforested elements the climate could continue to support tropical forest. Following these off-line tests, the simple vegetation scheme has been coupled to the GCM as an interactive (or two-way) submodel for a test integration lasting 5.6 yr. It is found to be a stable component of the global climate system, producing only ~ 3% (absolute) interannual changes in the predicted percentages of continental vegetation, together with globally-averaged continental temperature increases of up to + 1.5 °C and evaporation increases of 0 to 5 W m^–2 and no discernible trends over the 67 months of integration. On the other hand, this interactive land biosphere causes regional-scale temperature differences of ± 10 °C and commensurate disturbances in other climatic parameters. Tuning, similar to the q-flux schemes used for ocean models, could improve the simulation of the present-day surface climate but, in the longer term, it will be important to focus on predicting the characteristics of the continental surface rather than simple vegetation classes. The coupling scheme will also have to allow for vegetation responses occurring over longer timescales so that the coupled system is buffered from sudden shocks.     

Summer dryness in a warmer climate: a process study with a regional climate model

Earlier GCM studies have expressed the concern that an enhancement of greenhouse warming might increase the occurrence of summer droughts in mid-latitudes, especially in southern Europe and central North America. This could represent a severe threat for agriculture in the regions concerned, where summer is the main growing season. These predictions must however be considered as uncertain, since most studies featuring enhanced summer dryness in mid-latitudes use very simple representations of the land-surface processes ("bucket" models), despite their key importance for the issue considered. The current study uses a regional climate model including a land-surface scheme of intermediate complexity to investigate the sensitivity of the summer climate to enhanced greenhouse warming over the American Midwest. A surrogate climate change scenario is used for the simulation of a warmer climate. The control runs are driven at the lateral boundaries and the sea surface by reanalysis data and observations, respectively. The warmer climate experiments are forced by a modified set of initial and lateral boundary conditions. The modifications consist of a uniform 3 K temperature increase and an attendant increase of specific humidity (unchanged relative humidity). This strategy maintains a similar dynamical forcing in the warmer climate experiments, thus allowing to investigate thermodynamical impacts of climate change in comparative isolation. The atmospheric CO ₂ concentration of the sensitivity experiments is set to four times its pre-industrial value. The simulations are conducted from March 15 to October 1st, for 4 years corresponding to drought (1988), normal (1986, 1990) and flood (1993) conditions. The numerical experiments do not present any great enhancement of summer drying under warmer climatic conditions. First, the overall changes in the hydrological cycle (especially evapotranspiration) are of small magnitude despite the strong forcing applied. Second, precipitation increases in spring lead to higher soil water recharge during this season, compensating for the enhanced soil moisture depletion occurring later in the year. Additional simulations replacing the plant control on transpiration with a bucket-type formulation presented increased soil drying in 1988, the drought year. This suggests that vegetation control on transpiration might play an important part in counteracting an enhancement of summer drying when soil water gets limited. Though further aspects of this issue would need investigating, our results underline the importance of land-surface processes in climate integrations and suggest that the risk of enhanced summer dryness in the region studied might be less acute than previously assumed, provided the North American general circulation does not change markedly with global warming.     

Effects of a Fence on Pollutant Dispersion in a Boundary Layer Exposed to a Rural-to-Urban Transition

Simultaneous particle-image velocimetry and laser-induced fluorescence combined with large-eddy simulations are used to investigate the flow and pollutant dispersion behaviour in a rural-to-urban roughness transition. The urban roughness is characterized by an array of cubical obstacles in an aligned arrangement. A plane fence is added one obstacle height h upstream of the urban roughness elements, with three different fence heights considered. A smooth-wall turbulent boundary layer with a depth of 10h is used as the approaching flow, and a passive tracer is released from a uniform line source 1h upstream of the fence. A shear layer is formed at the top of the fence, which increases in strength for the higher fence cases, resulting in a deeper internal boundary layer (IBL). It is found that the mean flow for the rural-to-urban transition can be described by means of a mixing-length model provided that the transitional effects are accounted for. The mixing-length formulation for sparse urban canopies, as found in the literature, is extended to take into account the blockage effect in dense canopies. Additionally, the average mean concentration field is found to scale with the IBL depth and the bulk velocity in the IBL.     

A cold air lake formation in a basin — a simulation with a mesoscale numerical model

Summary A formation of a cold air lake in a basin is studied with a mesometeorological model.A dynamic Boussinesq hydrostatic mesoscale numerical model is developed in a staggered orthogonal grid with a horizontal resolution of 1 km and with a varying vertical grid. The topography is presented in a block shape so that computation levels are horizontal.The mesometeorological model is tested in three idealized topography cases (a valley, a single mountain, a basin) and test results are discussed.In an alpine basin surrounded by mountains and plateaus the air is supposed to be stagnant at the beginning of the night. Due to differences in radiation cooling an inversion layer is formed in the basin and local wind circulation is studied by model simulations.With 14 Figures     

一次典型暴雨天气过程分析

通过分析2004年7月20日20时～21日20时的一次重大区域性暴雨过程，着重分析一种少见的暴雨天气。此次降雨有以下几个特点：地面没有锋面，副高不断西伸增强，有非常明显韵风速切变。     

Energy transfer in a fluid with a uniform density gradient

Energy transfer via resonance in a stratified fluid with a constant Brunt–Väisälä frequency is studied through the Manley–Rowe relation and direct numerical simulations. The objectives of this study are two-fold. One is to determine if there is a limitation on the lengthscale of small-scale waves to which primary energy can be effectively transferred. The other is to study factors affecting the growth of parametric subharmonic instability. Resonantly interacting modes are classified into three groups: local sum modes, quasi-subharmonic modes and remote parametric subharmonic instability modes (characterized by interaction with very small-scale waves). The latter two involve energy transfer from a primary wave to secondary waves with half the frequency. Most energy transfer is through local sum resonant modes and quasi-subharmonic modes. Energy cannot effectively transfer to higher wavenumber modes since dynamical systems are altered as wavenumbers of excited modes increase. In the remote modes, the solution is sinusoidal with high angular frequency and very small energy capacity. As a consequence, these modes are inactive in energy transfer despite their high energy growth rates. Effects of non-uniform white noise amplitude and primary mode propagation angle on the quasi-subharmonic modes are also investigated. Implications for energy transfer in the ocean are discussed.     

一次台风前部龙卷的多普勒天气雷达分析

通过分析2004年8月25日发生在浙江省宁波市的一次台风前部龙卷发生发展的环境特征, 发现该龙卷发生在台风前部风切变区里, 尽管当时涡度、散度等物理量对于深对流发展不是非常有利, 但下湿中干、强的垂直风切变及地形条件等还是有利于局地弱龙卷的产生; 在宁波新一代天气雷达产品上表现为强的钩状回波, 速度场上有相邻的正负速度中心及强的组合切变值等。通过多个反射率产品、剖面产品等综合分析了该风暴的三维结构, 初步了解此类弱龙卷的发生机理, 为以后的预报提供一些经验。