AN INTEGRATION METHOD WITH FITTING CUBIC SPLINE FUNCTIONS TO A NUMERICAL MODEL OF 2ND-ORDER SPACE-TIME DIFFERENTIAL REMAINDER——FOR AN IDEAL GLOBAL SIMULATION CASE WITH PRIMITIVE ATMOSPHERIC EQUATIONS

In this paper,the forecasting equations of a 2nd-order space-time differential remainder are deduced from the Navier-Stokes primitive equations and Eulerian operator by Taylor-series expansion.Here we introduce a cubic spline numerical model(Spline Model for short),which is with a quasi-Lagrangian time-split integration scheme of fitting cubic spline/bicubic surface to all physical variable fields in the atmospheric equations on spherical discrete latitude-longitude mesh.A new algorithm of"fitting cubic spline—time step integration—fitting cubic spline—……"is developed to determine their first-and2nd-order derivatives and their upstream points for time discrete integral to the governing equations in Spline Model.And the cubic spline function and its mathematical polarities are also discussed to understand the Spline Model’s mathematical foundation of numerical analysis.It is pointed out that the Spline Model has mathematical laws of"convergence"of the cubic spline functions contracting to the original functions as well as its 1st-order and 2nd-order derivatives.The"optimality"of the 2nd-order derivative of the cubic spline functions is optimal approximation to that of the original functions.In addition,a Hermite bicubic patch is equivalent to operate on a grid for a 2nd-order derivative variable field.Besides,the slopes and curvatures of a central difference are identified respectively,with a smoothing coefficient of 1/3,three-point smoothing of that of a cubic spline.Then the slopes and curvatures of a central difference are calculated from the smoothing coefficient 1/3 and three-point smoothing of that of a cubic spline,respectively.Furthermore,a global simulation case of adiabatic,non-frictional and"incompressible"model atmosphere is shown with the quasi-Lagrangian time integration by using a global Spline Model,whose initial condition comes from the NCEP reanalysis data,along with quasi-uniform latitude-longitude grids and the so-called"shallow atmosphere"Navier-Stokes primitive equations in the spherical coordinates.The Spline Model,which adopted the Navier-Stokes primitive equations and quasi-Lagrangian time-split integration scheme,provides an initial ideal case of global atmospheric circulation.In addition,considering the essentially non-linear atmospheric motions,the Spline Model could judge reasonably well simple points of any smoothed variable field according to its fitting spline curvatures that must conform to its physical interpretation.     

Classification of Northeast China Cold Vortex Activity Paths in Early Summer Based on K-means Clustering and Their Climate Impact

The classification of the Northeast China Cold Vortex(NCCV)activity paths is an important way to analyze its characteristics in detail.Based on the daily precipitation data of the northeastern China(NEC)region,and the atmospheric circulation field and temperature field data of ERA-Interim for every six hours,the NCCV processes during the early summer(June)seasons from 1979 to 2018 were objectively identified.Then,the NCCV processes were classified using a machine learning method(k-means)according to the characteristic parameters of the activity path information.The rationality of the classification results was verified from two aspects,as follows:(1)the atmospheric circulation configuration of the NCCV on various paths;and(2)its influences on the climate conditions in the NEC.The obtained results showed that the activity paths of the NCCV could be divided into four types according to such characteristics as the generation origin,movement direction,and movement velocity of the NCCV.These included the generation-eastward movement type in the east of the Mongolia Plateau(eastward movement type or type A);generation-southeast longdistance movement type in the upstream of the Lena River(southeast long-distance movement type or type B);generationeastward less-movement type near Lake Baikal(eastward less-movement type or type C);and the generation-southward less-movement type in eastern Siberia(southward less-movement type or type D).There were obvious differences observed in the atmospheric circulation configuration and the climate impact of the NCCV on the four above-mentioned types of paths,which indicated that the classification results were reasonable.     

Influence of the NAO on Wintertime Surface Air Temperature over East Asia: Multidecadal Variability and Decadal Prediction

In this paper,we investigate the influence of the winter NAO on the multidecadal variability of winter East Asian surface air temperature(EASAT)and EASAT decadal prediction.The observational analysis shows that the winter EASAT and East Asian minimum SAT(EAmSAT)display strong in-phase fluctuations and a significant 60-80-year multidecadal variability,apart from a long-term warming trend.The winter EASAT experienced a decreasing trend in the last two decades,which is consistent with the occurrence of extremely cold events in East Asia winters in recent years.The winter NAO leads the detrended winter EASAT by 12-18 years with the greatest significant positive correlation at the lead time of 15 years.Further analysis shows that ENSO may affect winter EASAT interannual variability,but does not affect the robust lead relationship between the winter NAO and EASAT.We present the coupled oceanic-atmospheric bridge(COAB)mechanism of the NAO influences on winter EASAT multidecadal variability through its accumulated delayed effect of~15 years on the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO)and Africa-Asia multidecadal teleconnection(AAMT)pattern.An NAO-based linear model for predicting winter decadal EASAT is constructed on the principle of the COAB mechanism,with good hindcast performance.The winter EASAT for 2020-34 is predicted to keep on fluctuating downward until~2025,implying a high probability of occurrence of extremely cold events in coming winters in East Asia,followed by a sudden turn towards sharp warming.The predicted 2020/21 winter EASAT is almost the same as the 2019/20 winter.     

Phase Two of the Integrative Monsoon Frontal Rainfall Experiment (IMFRE-II) over the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River in 2020

Phase Two of the Integrative Monsoon Frontal Rainfall Experiment(IMFRE-II)was conducted over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River during the period 16 June to 19 July 2020.This paper provides a brief overview of the IMFRE-II field campaign,including the multiple ground-based remote sensors,aircraft probes,and their corresponding measurements during the 2020 mei-yu period,as well as how to use these numerous datasets to answer scientific questions.The highlights of IMFRE-II are:(1)to the best of our knowledge,IMFRE-II is the first field campaign in China to use ground-based,airborne,and spaceborne platforms to conduct comprehensive observations over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River;and(2)seven aircraft flights were successfully carried out,and the spectra of ice particles,cloud droplets,and raindrops at different altitudes were obtained.These in-situ measurements will provide a“cloud truth”to validate the ground-based and satellite-retrieved cloud and precipitation properties and quantitatively estimate their retrieval uncertainties.They are also crucial for the development of a warm(and/or cold)rain conceptual model in order to better understand the cloud-to-rain conversion and accretion processes in mei-yu precipitation events.Through an integrative analysis of ground-based,aircraft,and satellite observations and model simulations,we can significantly improve our cloud and precipitation retrieval algorithms,investigate the microphysical properties of cloud and precipitation,understand in-depth the formation and dissipation mechanisms of mei-yu frontal systems,and improve cloud microphysics parameterization schemes and model simulations.     

CHARACTERISTICS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES IMPACTING A NUCLEAR POWER PLANT IN SOUTHERN FUJIAN AND ESTIMATE OF MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE

Based on tropical cyclone (TC) data for the period 1949 to 2008 and following the Gumbe-I method, Pearson-Ⅲ method and determinacy method, this article estimates the possible minimum central pressure of TCs affecting southern Fujian where a nuclear power will be located. Results show that the observed minimum central pressure of TCs agrees well with the results determined with the methods above and there is little difference between them (the minimum central pressure is 867.4 hPa and 868.1 hPa, respectively, in a 1,000-yr return period). Established with the theory of atmospheric dynamics, the determinacy method yields a result of 867.28 hPa/1000 years, only a little smaller than the result of the probability method. Because of randomicity in parameter adjustment with the Pearson-Ⅲ method whereas the determinacy method is theoretically solid and its estimates are the smallest of the three methods, it is therefore reasonable, for security and conservative concerns, to adopt the result determined with the determinacy method as the possible maximum intensity of TC (with the central pressure being 867.28 hPa in a 1,000-yr return period).     

A Comparison of Two Bulk Microphysics Parameterizations for the Study of Aerosol Impacts on an Idealized Supercell

Idealized supercell storms are simulated with two aerosol-aware bulk microphysics schemes(BMSs),the Thompson and the Chen-Liu-Reisner(CLR),using the Weather Research and Forecast(WRF)model.The objective of this study is to investigate the parameterizations of aerosol effects on cloud and precipitation characteristics and assess the necessity of introducing aerosols into a weather prediction model at fine grid resolution.The results show that aerosols play a decisive role in the composition of clouds in terms of the mixing ratios and number concentrations of liquid and ice hydrometeors in an intense supercell storm.The storm consists of a large amount of cloud water and snow in the polluted environment,but a large amount of rainwater and graupel instead in the clean environment.The total precipitation and rain intensity are suppressed in the CLR scheme more than in the Thompson scheme in the first three hours of storm simulations.The critical processes explaining the differences are the auto-conversion rate in the warm-rain process at the beginning of storm intensification and the low-level cooling induced by large ice hydrometeors.The cloud condensation nuclei(CCN)activation and auto-conversion processes of the two schemes exhibit considerable differences,indicating the inherent uncertainty of the parameterized aerosol effects among different BMSs.Beyond the aerosol effects,the fall speed characteristics of graupel in the two schemes play an important role in the storm dynamics and precipitation via low-level cooling.The rapid intensification of storms simulated with the Thompson scheme is attributed to the production of hail-like graupel.     

THE IMPACTS OF MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION ON SPRING RAINFALL IN EAST CHINA

Phase composite analyses are conducted to investigate the possible effect of the Madden–Julian oscillation(MJO)on the spring rainfall anomalies in East China by using the Real-time Multivariate MJO(RMM)index from Australian Meteorological Bureau.The results show that the rainfall anomalies over the mid-and lower-valley of Yangtze River are positive when the MJO shifts eastward to the mid-and eastern-Indian Ocean,and anomalous precipitation over South China are positive when the MJO moves further eastward to the maritime continent,whereas spring rainfall anomalies over East China are negative in the other MJO episodes.The MJO impacts on the precipitation over East China result from the changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation as well as vorticity and water vapor transportation in the mid-and lower-troposphere.     

Hydro-climatic Characteristics of Yarlung Zangbo River Basin since the Last Glacial Maximum

Global climate changes significantly impact the water condition of big rivers in glacierized high mountains. However,there is a lack of studies on hydrological changes within river basins caused by climate changes over a geological timescale due to the impossibility of direct observations. In this study, we examine the hydro-climatic variation of the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin in the Tibet Plateau since the Last Glacial Maximum(LGM) by combining δ18 O proxy records in Indian and Omani caves with the simulated Indian summer monsoon, surface temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration and runoff via the Community Climate System Model and the reconstructed glacier coverage via the Parallel Ice Sheet Model. The mean river runoff was kept at a low level of 145 billion cubic meters per year until an abrupt increase at a rate of 8.7 million cubic meters per year in the B?lling-Aller?d interval(BA). The annual runoff reached a maximum of 250 billion cubic meters in the early Holocene and then reduced to the current value of 180 billion cubic meters at a rate of 6.4 million cubic meters per year. The low runoff in the LGM and Heinrich Stadial 1(HS1) is likely attributed to such a small contribution of precipitation to runoff and the large glacier cover. The percentage of precipitation to runoff was only 20%during the LGM and HS1. Comparison of glacier area among different periods indicates that the fastest deglaciation occurred during the late HS1, when nearly 60% of glacier area disappeared in the middle reach, 50% in the upper reach,and 30% in the lower reach. The rapid deglaciation and increasing runoff between the late HS1 and BA may have accelerated widespread ice-dam breaches and led to extreme outburst flood events. Combining local geological proxy records and regional simulations could be a useful approach for the study of paleo-hydrologic variations in big river basins.     

Verification of Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Forecasts for Major Stratospheric Sudden Warmings in Northern Winter from 1998/99 to 2012/13

This study reports verification results of hindcast data of four systems in the subseasonal-to-seasonal(S2S)prediction project for major stratospheric sudden warmings(MSSWs)in northern winter from 1998/99 to 2012/13.This report deals with average features across all MSSWs,and possible differences between two MSSW types(vortex displacement and split types).Results for the average features show that stratospheric forecast verifications,when further averaged among the four systems,are judged to be successful for lead times around 10 d or shorter.All systems are skillful for lead times around 5 d,whereas the results vary among the systems for longer lead times.A comparison between the MSSW types overall suggests larger forecast errors or lower skill for MSSWs of the vortex split type,although the differences do not have strong statistical significance for almost all cases.This limitation is likely to at least partly reflect the small sample size of the MSSWs available.     

南京三千公尺高空之风向与天气之预测

晚近日本籐原笑平(Fujiwhora)博士于地球物理杂志发表「根据三千公尺高空等压线,以预测天气之一例证」一文,谓日本最近用三千公尺高空之等压线,作每日天气之预测,已得相当成就。氏之经验法则谓自九月以迄五月,日本太平洋沿岸,三千公尺高空之等压线,来自西南者,可形去致雨,而来自西北者,则可期晴明。此种倾向颇为显著。     

加强业务管理提高测报质量

我局从1999～2003年,测报工作连续4年未出现错情,在此期间共有1个250个班,9个百班无错通过上级业务部门验收.在仪器保管、使用、维护上符合要求,对外报送的各种表、簿都能做好出门合格.     

Comparing the theoretical versions of the Beaufort scale, the T-Scale and the Fujita scale

2005 is the bicentenary of the Beaufort Scale and its wind-speed codes: the marine version in 1805 and the land version later. In the 1920s when anemometers had come into general use, the Beaufort Scale was quantified by a formula based on experiment. In the early 1970s two tornado wind-speed scales were proposed: (1) an International T-Scale based on the Beaufort Scale; and (2) Fujita's damage scale developed for North America. The International Beaufort Scale and the T-Scale share a common root in having an integral theoretical relationship with an established scientific basis, whereas Fujita's Scale introduces criteria that make its intensities non-integral with Beaufort. Forces on the T-Scale, where T stands for Tornado force, span the range 0 to 10 which is highly useful world wide. The shorter range of Fujita's Scale (0 to 5) is acceptable for American use but less convenient elsewhere. To illustrate the simplicity of the decimal T-Scale, mean hurricane wind speed of Beaufort 12 is T2 on the T-Scale but F1.121 on the F-Scale; while a tornado wind speed of T9 (= B26) becomes F4.761. However, the three wind scales can be uni-fied by either making F-Scale numbers exactly half the magnitude of T-Scale numbers [i.e. F′half = T / 2 = (B / 4) − 4] or by doubling the numbers of this revised version to give integral equivalence with the T-Scale. The result is a decimal formula F′double = T = (B / 2) − 4 named the TF-Scale where TF stands for Tornado Force. This harmonious 10-digit scale has all the criteria needed for world-wide practical effectiveness.     

准两年振荡对大气中微量气体分布的影响

NCAR的包含化学、辐射、动力相互作用的两维模式（SOCRATES）移植回国后进行了初步的模拟试验,用以研究某些对环境问题重要的微量气体的化学、辐射、动力传输过程。在不考虑极地平流层云和气溶胶表面非均相化学等情况下,模式积分多年,计算结果稳定,模拟的风场、温度场显示出正常的季节变化,模拟的微量气体分布与卫星实测资料对照,结果也比较一致。为了探讨热带平流层风场的准两年周期振荡（QBO）对平流层微量气体分布的影响,我们做了QBO强迫的数值试验,即在模式中加入QBO强迫,并与不考虑QBO强迫的模拟结果对比。结果表明,QBO与其相关的次级环流所引起动力输送的变化,使平流层微量气体分布发生变化。     

Quantifying the uncertainty of the annular mode time scale and the role of the stratosphere

The impact of high resolution modern vegetation cover on the West African climate is examined using the International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model implementing the NCAR Community Land Model. Two high resolution 25 km long-term simulations driven by the output from a coarser 50-km resolution simulation are performed for the period 1998–2010. One high resolution simulation uses an earlier and coarser-resolution version of plant functional type distribution and leaf area index, while the other uses a more recent, higher-quality, and finer-resolution version of the data. The results indicate that the new land cover distribution substantially alters the distribution of temperature with warming in Central Nigeria, northern Gulf of Guinea and part of the Sahel due to the replacement of C4 grass with corn; and cooling along the coastlines of the Gulf of Guinea and in Central Africa due to the replacement of C4 grass with tropical broadleaf evergreen trees. Changes in latent heat flux appear to be largely responsible for these temperature changes with a net decrease (increase) in regions of warming (cooling). The improved land cover distribution also results in a wetter monsoon season. The presence of corn tends to favor larger precipitation amounts via more intense events, while the presence of tropical broadleaf evergreen trees tends to favor the occurrence of both more intense and more frequent events. The wetter conditions appear to be sustained via (1) an enhanced soil moisture feedback; and (2) elevated moisture transport due to increased low-level convergence in regions south of 10N where the most substantial land cover differences are present. Overall the changes induced by the improved vegetation cover improve, to some extent, the performance of the high resolution regional climate model in simulating the main West African summer monsoon features.     

流场配置及地形对西南低涡形成的动力作用

本文采用定常二层模式讨论较小地形及高、低层流场配置对西南低涡形成的动力作用。指出了西南低涡的形成是与盆地、河谷以及其上气流分层有关的一种定常态.在上、下为西风分层时期,低层的浅薄暖湿西风有利于西南低涡的形成.在上、下为东、西风分层时期,上层浅薄东风亦有利于西南低涡的形成.小型的凸起山脉对西南低涡的形成没有作用.     

由中国历史气候记录对季风导致唐朝灭亡说的质疑

2007年1月4日杂志发表了Yancheva等10人的题为"Influence of the intertropical convergence zone on the East-Asian monsoon"(热带辐合带对东亚季风的影响)的论文[1],这是德国波兹坦地学研究中心气候动力与沉积学科的主管豪格(G.H.Haug)率领的科研小组的一项成果,认为是季风的变化引起的长期干旱导致了唐朝的灭亡.     

On the forecast of the onset and end of the convective season in the Amazon

Summary ?Some features of the climate system that can be considered predictors of the onset and end of the convective season over the Amazon were identified using one-month lag correlations and field composites. The fields analyzed were sea surface temperature (SST), outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR), vertical velocity and upper tropospheric winds. Warm (cold) anomalies in the SST in the tropical North Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea tend to be associated with delayed (early) onsets. Likewise, there is a tendency towards a delayed (early) end of the convective season with cold (warm) anomalies in these ocean regions. In addition, the SST in the cold tongue region of the equatorial Pacific is negatively, though weakly correlated with the onset date. The signal of this SST is more evident in the case of the end date, which is earlier with respect to its mean date in most of El Ni?o cases. The convective activity intensity itself conditions the onset and the end of the convective season, as it is evidenced by the behavior of the OLR and the vertical velocity fields. The more (less) intense the convective activity over South America during the preceding month, the earlier the onset and the later the end of the convective season on the Amazon region. The prediction of the onset and end dates of the convective season in the Amazon region was explored using a simple multiple regression technique based on the variables that have shown precursor signals with respect to these dates. The correlation coefficient between the predicted and the observed onset date is 0.81, and in the case of the end date, it is 0.76. The skill to predict early, delayed and normal categories was high, since in more than two thirds of the cases the category was successfully predicted, and there were no predictions of categories opposed to those observed. Received July 23, 2001; revised February 22, 2002; accepted April 26, 2002     

Analysis of the Characteristics of the Low-level Jets in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River during the Mei-yu Season

Here, we analyze the characteristics and the formation mechanisms of low-level jets(LLJs) in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River during the 2010 mei-yu season using Wuhan station radiosonde data and the fifth generation of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ERA5) reanalysis dataset. Our results show that the vertical structure of LLJs is characterized by a predominance of boundary layer jets(BLJs) concentrated at heights of 900–1200 m.The BLJs occur most frequently at 230...