大气边界层的室内模拟研究--夹卷层温度场结构分析

利用室内水槽模拟大气对流边界层,并用多探头测量和光学方法测量分析夹卷层的夹卷过程和温度场结构.测量结果表明,夹卷层的温度场不同于各向同性湍流场,主要原因是夹卷层中含有一些大尺度的相干涡旋.     

大气边界的室内模拟研究—夹卷层温度场结构分析

利用室内水槽模拟大气对流边界层，并用多探头测量和光学方法测量分析夹卷层的夹卷过程和温度场结构。测量结果表明，夹卷层的温度场不同于各向同性湍流场，主要原因是夹卷层中含有一些大尺度的相干涡旋。     

对流边界层发展受覆盖逆温影响的大涡模拟研究

本文运用大涡模拟方法研究了存在覆盖逆温时对流边界层顶部的夹卷过程特征,并通过敏感性试验着重分析了在此情况之下的夹卷速度参数化问题,以及风切变的作用。模拟结果表明,初始覆盖逆温改变了夹卷层的结构特征,使得夹卷层结构参数明显增大,风切变使这一效应略有增强,以往关于夹卷速度的参数化方案不再适用。分析研究表明,在有覆盖逆温的情况下,夹卷层结构参数是控制夹卷速度的关键因子,应该将夹卷层结构参数作为变量引入夹卷速度参数化方案,该方案能够很好地预报出受覆盖逆温影响的对流边界层的发展过程。     

干湿地表的湍流特征及其对深对流影响的大涡模拟

利用大涡模式模拟了对流边界层结构演变以及深对流触发过程。通过改变鲍恩比的敏感性试验研究不同大气初始状况下湿润和干旱下垫面湍流特征及其对深对流触发过程的影响。结果表明:干旱下垫面的混合层干而暖,厚度较大;湿润下垫面相反。由于地表感热通量对热力湍流形成的作用更大,干旱下垫面上湍流混合和夹卷作用更强,使得水汽和相当位温在边界层内分布更均一,而在边界层顶有较大的负扰动;干旱下垫面上对流强度较湿润下垫面大,但均表现为泡状对流,水平方向上呈网状结构。不同下垫面上深对流的发生与大气初始状况有关,当初始时刻1—3 km的逆温强度较弱时（0.15 K/（100 m））,边界层内湍流迅速发展,深对流首先在干旱下垫面发生,但因对流有效位能较小,云层厚度小于湿润下垫面。当1—3 km的逆温强度增加到0.55 K/（100 m）时,云层形成时间较晚,云层厚度明显减小,仅当边界层顶的比湿较大时,有深对流发生,但仍首先发生在干旱下垫面,考虑贯穿对流在边界层顶引起的较强冷却作用,云层厚度大于湿润下垫面。      

风切变对边界层对流影响的大涡模拟研究

利用"西北干旱区陆-气相互作用野外观测实验"加密观测期间在敦煌站的观测资料以及大涡模式,模拟了对流边界层的发展,以及示踪物从混合层向残留层传输的时空变化。模拟的对流边界层的结构及演变特征与实测结果基本一致。进一步通过有风切变和无风切变的敏感性数值试验,研究了风切变对垂直速度、位温和示踪物浓度的水平分布以及示踪物传输高度的影响。研究结果表明,在有风切变的试验中(甚至风切变仅存在于近地层中),对流边界层的增长加强,而且示踪物被传输的高度也较高。与浮力驱动的对流边界层相比,由浮力和风切变共同驱动的边界层中上升气流较弱而下沉气流较强,但前者的上升气流与下沉气流的分布在垂直方向上更为倾斜。由于夹卷作用的增强,浮力和风切变共同驱动的对流边界层较浮力驱动的对流边界层暖。在夹卷层,浮力和风切变共同驱动的边界层对流的上升气流和下沉气流都比浮力驱动的边界层对流中的强,而且垂直速度的概率密度函数分布也较对称,其位温和示踪物浓度的概率密度函数分布也比浮力驱动的边界层中的平直。对湍流动能收支的分析也表明风切变对湍流动能有重要影响,尤其对夹卷层中的湍流动能切变产生项影响较大。示踪物浓度的概率密度函数垂直分布显示,浮力驱动的边界层中示踪物浓度随高度变化较小,而浮力和风切变共同驱动的边界层中示踪物浓度随高度递减,但是示踪物传输的高度比较高。     

黄河源区鄂陵湖湖面和湖边草地对流边界层湍流结构特征的大涡模拟研究

为研究黄河源区边界层湍流特征及其对物质和能量输送的影响,本文首次采用大涡模拟的方法,对比分析了黄河源区两种不同下垫面上（鄂陵湖和湖边草地）对流边界层（CBL）中精细的湍流结构特征。使用资料为2012年夏季黄河源区鄂陵湖流域野外观测实验的GPS探空资料、涡动相关观测资料。分析表明,模拟的黄河源区草地和湖上CBL的平均结构与实测结果吻合较好,但草地和湖上CBL的湍流结构特征差异较明显。模拟结果显示,草地CBL内湍能收支、湍流特征量的时空分布和湍涡结构特征均与陆地上热力驱动CBL的研究结果一致;湖上CBL顶部存在明显的对流卷特征,且夹卷层的湍流强度比草地的强,而草地近地面湍强则更大。通过改变水平分辨率的模拟试验,发现两个不同下垫面上模拟结果对模式分辨率的敏感性不同,湖面CBL的模拟要选择较高的水平分辨率（50～100 m）,以提高近湖面和夹卷层对湍流动能和湍流通量模拟的精度,也充分模拟出各种尺度的波对湍流通量的累积贡献。考虑到计算时间等影响,模拟草地边界层精细的湍流结构时建议选择网格距为100～200 m。     

实验速度场测量技术及对流边界层特征研究

在对流槽中对对流边界层(CBL)温度场实验研究的基础上,进一步尝试通过实验技术测量速度场并分析研究CBL中的速度场特征。在应用PIV测量技术时选用铝粉作示踪粒子。实验证明了在混合层中速度分布明显具有对流边界层热泡特性;混合层顶部的速度分布很好地反应出夹卷层的结构特征;湍流速度特征量的垂直分布合理,与野外实测结果和类似的对流槽实验结果接近;误差分析表明示踪粒子的跟随性良好,粒子速度的测量结果能真实地反应流体的运动特征,从而得证了分析结果的可靠性。     

高阶矩模式模拟对流边界层的可行性研究

本文建立了二阶矩闭合的大气边界层数值模式,并模拟了Wangara资料第33天09:00—18:00时对流边界层的发展过程。计算结果与实测资料比较吻合,同时利用该模式研究了高阶矩模式模拟对流边界层的可行性,结果指出:二阶矩方程中的湍流扩散项对模拟对流边界层内的挟卷和反梯度现象起主要作用。而局地时间变化项仅影响对流边界层内的边界湍流扩散项。因此,假如处理好二阶矩方程中的湍流扩散项,高阶矩模式和大涡模式一样可以很好地模拟对流边界层的发生、发展。     

西北干旱区对流边界层发展的热力机制模拟研究

观测发现,西北干旱区对流边界层高度在夏、冬两季极大值分别达到4 km和800 m.利用热力学方法对西北干旱地区深厚对流边界层的原因进行了定量分析.用建立的热力数值模型模拟表明,平均而言,夏季和冬季对流边界层高度的51.5％和61.4％分别由感热产生,对于夏、冬季对流边界层高度可分别达到4 km和800 m的极大值,感热贡献更大,为63.4％和73.1％,感热对对流边界层的贡献率冬季明显大于夏季;夏、冬季浮力夹卷对对流边界层的贡献是18.1％和9.4％;包括感热和浮力夹卷的热力因素可以解释夏、冬季对流边界层高度的69.6％和70.8％,而对于对流边界层极大值,则其解释可高达81％和84.6％.热力因素是西北干旱区对流边界层产生的主要原因,其中,感热又是最根本原因.     

利用大涡模式模拟黄土高原地区对流边界层特征

边界层湍流所引起各物理量的垂直输送在大气过程中起着重要作用。研究对流边界层特征对分析污染物扩散条件,认识陆气间物质、能量的输送交换机制和提高数值模式模拟能力具有重要意义。受限于目前许多地区通量观测站较少、资料时空分辨率较低,为了研究黄土高原地区大气边界层结构及其特征,将中尺度气象模式WRF(The Weather Research and Forecasting Model)与大涡模式WRF Large-Eddy Simulation(WRF-LES)嵌套使用,分析了黄土高原夏季温湿廓线情形下,由热力驱动的边界层结构特征。结果表明:(1)WRF-LES模拟的地面风温场能较好地显示边界层典型湍流结构,其他气象要素的模拟结果也比较符合边界层实际。(2)混合层顶所在的1000 m高度处垂直湍流强度最大,强夹卷作用导致湍涡尺度减小且涡旋数量增多。(3)在模拟区选定的参数化方案下,采用夏季实际粗糙度0.062 m替换模式默认值0.1 m,发现使用实际粗糙度的模拟温度较之前低0.4 K,与模拟区中心处的观测数据更接近,说明采用合理的粗糙度对提高WRF-LES模拟效果有重要作用。     

加强业务管理提高测报质量

我局从1999～2003年,测报工作连续4年未出现错情,在此期间共有1个250个班,9个百班无错通过上级业务部门验收.在仪器保管、使用、维护上符合要求,对外报送的各种表、簿都能做好出门合格.     

Comparing the theoretical versions of the Beaufort scale, the T-Scale and the Fujita scale

2005 is the bicentenary of the Beaufort Scale and its wind-speed codes: the marine version in 1805 and the land version later. In the 1920s when anemometers had come into general use, the Beaufort Scale was quantified by a formula based on experiment. In the early 1970s two tornado wind-speed scales were proposed: (1) an International T-Scale based on the Beaufort Scale; and (2) Fujita's damage scale developed for North America. The International Beaufort Scale and the T-Scale share a common root in having an integral theoretical relationship with an established scientific basis, whereas Fujita's Scale introduces criteria that make its intensities non-integral with Beaufort. Forces on the T-Scale, where T stands for Tornado force, span the range 0 to 10 which is highly useful world wide. The shorter range of Fujita's Scale (0 to 5) is acceptable for American use but less convenient elsewhere. To illustrate the simplicity of the decimal T-Scale, mean hurricane wind speed of Beaufort 12 is T2 on the T-Scale but F1.121 on the F-Scale; while a tornado wind speed of T9 (= B26) becomes F4.761. However, the three wind scales can be uni-fied by either making F-Scale numbers exactly half the magnitude of T-Scale numbers [i.e. F′half = T / 2 = (B / 4) − 4] or by doubling the numbers of this revised version to give integral equivalence with the T-Scale. The result is a decimal formula F′double = T = (B / 2) − 4 named the TF-Scale where TF stands for Tornado Force. This harmonious 10-digit scale has all the criteria needed for world-wide practical effectiveness.     

准两年振荡对大气中微量气体分布的影响

NCAR的包含化学、辐射、动力相互作用的两维模式（SOCRATES）移植回国后进行了初步的模拟试验,用以研究某些对环境问题重要的微量气体的化学、辐射、动力传输过程。在不考虑极地平流层云和气溶胶表面非均相化学等情况下,模式积分多年,计算结果稳定,模拟的风场、温度场显示出正常的季节变化,模拟的微量气体分布与卫星实测资料对照,结果也比较一致。为了探讨热带平流层风场的准两年周期振荡（QBO）对平流层微量气体分布的影响,我们做了QBO强迫的数值试验,即在模式中加入QBO强迫,并与不考虑QBO强迫的模拟结果对比。结果表明,QBO与其相关的次级环流所引起动力输送的变化,使平流层微量气体分布发生变化。     

Quantifying the uncertainty of the annular mode time scale and the role of the stratosphere

The impact of high resolution modern vegetation cover on the West African climate is examined using the International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model implementing the NCAR Community Land Model. Two high resolution 25 km long-term simulations driven by the output from a coarser 50-km resolution simulation are performed for the period 1998–2010. One high resolution simulation uses an earlier and coarser-resolution version of plant functional type distribution and leaf area index, while the other uses a more recent, higher-quality, and finer-resolution version of the data. The results indicate that the new land cover distribution substantially alters the distribution of temperature with warming in Central Nigeria, northern Gulf of Guinea and part of the Sahel due to the replacement of C4 grass with corn; and cooling along the coastlines of the Gulf of Guinea and in Central Africa due to the replacement of C4 grass with tropical broadleaf evergreen trees. Changes in latent heat flux appear to be largely responsible for these temperature changes with a net decrease (increase) in regions of warming (cooling). The improved land cover distribution also results in a wetter monsoon season. The presence of corn tends to favor larger precipitation amounts via more intense events, while the presence of tropical broadleaf evergreen trees tends to favor the occurrence of both more intense and more frequent events. The wetter conditions appear to be sustained via (1) an enhanced soil moisture feedback; and (2) elevated moisture transport due to increased low-level convergence in regions south of 10N where the most substantial land cover differences are present. Overall the changes induced by the improved vegetation cover improve, to some extent, the performance of the high resolution regional climate model in simulating the main West African summer monsoon features.     

由中国历史气候记录对季风导致唐朝灭亡说的质疑

2007年1月4日杂志发表了Yancheva等10人的题为"Influence of the intertropical convergence zone on the East-Asian monsoon"(热带辐合带对东亚季风的影响)的论文[1],这是德国波兹坦地学研究中心气候动力与沉积学科的主管豪格(G.H.Haug)率领的科研小组的一项成果,认为是季风的变化引起的长期干旱导致了唐朝的灭亡.     

流场配置及地形对西南低涡形成的动力作用

本文采用定常二层模式讨论较小地形及高、低层流场配置对西南低涡形成的动力作用。指出了西南低涡的形成是与盆地、河谷以及其上气流分层有关的一种定常态.在上、下为西风分层时期,低层的浅薄暖湿西风有利于西南低涡的形成.在上、下为东、西风分层时期,上层浅薄东风亦有利于西南低涡的形成.小型的凸起山脉对西南低涡的形成没有作用.     

On the forecast of the onset and end of the convective season in the Amazon

Summary ?Some features of the climate system that can be considered predictors of the onset and end of the convective season over the Amazon were identified using one-month lag correlations and field composites. The fields analyzed were sea surface temperature (SST), outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR), vertical velocity and upper tropospheric winds. Warm (cold) anomalies in the SST in the tropical North Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea tend to be associated with delayed (early) onsets. Likewise, there is a tendency towards a delayed (early) end of the convective season with cold (warm) anomalies in these ocean regions. In addition, the SST in the cold tongue region of the equatorial Pacific is negatively, though weakly correlated with the onset date. The signal of this SST is more evident in the case of the end date, which is earlier with respect to its mean date in most of El Ni?o cases. The convective activity intensity itself conditions the onset and the end of the convective season, as it is evidenced by the behavior of the OLR and the vertical velocity fields. The more (less) intense the convective activity over South America during the preceding month, the earlier the onset and the later the end of the convective season on the Amazon region. The prediction of the onset and end dates of the convective season in the Amazon region was explored using a simple multiple regression technique based on the variables that have shown precursor signals with respect to these dates. The correlation coefficient between the predicted and the observed onset date is 0.81, and in the case of the end date, it is 0.76. The skill to predict early, delayed and normal categories was high, since in more than two thirds of the cases the category was successfully predicted, and there were no predictions of categories opposed to those observed. Received July 23, 2001; revised February 22, 2002; accepted April 26, 2002     

Analysis of the Characteristics of the Low-level Jets in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River during the Mei-yu Season

Here, we analyze the characteristics and the formation mechanisms of low-level jets(LLJs) in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River during the 2010 mei-yu season using Wuhan station radiosonde data and the fifth generation of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ERA5) reanalysis dataset. Our results show that the vertical structure of LLJs is characterized by a predominance of boundary layer jets(BLJs) concentrated at heights of 900–1200 m.The BLJs occur most frequently at 230...