纵观百年风雨情牵沈城冷暖

沈阳,因地处沈水(今浑河)之北而得名。这里春有桃李争妍,夏有烈日炎炎,秋有天高云淡,冬有白雪皑皑,四季分明、风光无限。翻开沈阳观象台历史画卷,有来自西方的基督教教士,有镇守“龙兴之地”的清朝官员,有建立现代观测体系的日本研究员,也有一代代坚守岗位的观测员,他们共同见证了沈阳观象台的百年沧桑。     

新疆羊肉为什么好吃，瓜果为什么甜

在新疆流传这样一句诵：不来新疆不知道中国有多大,不到伊犁不知道新疆有多美,不到喀什不知道新疆风情有多么的多姿多彩。其实还应该加两句：不到新疆不知道羊肉有多香,不到新疆不知道瓜果有多甜。     

广袤辽远,气象万千——咱们新疆好地方

我们新疆妤地疗,天山南北好风光。”在我国西部,有一片神奇的土地,超过全国陆地面积的1／6。这里有气势磅礴的山川胜迹,有神秘绝妙的自然景观,有古朴浓郁的民族风情,这就是新疆。新疆古称“西域”,地处亚洲中部,     

江口县2012年5月8—9日大暴雨服务总结

2012年5月8—9日,江口县有87.5%的站点发生暴雨到大暴雨,导致闵孝河、太平河洪水泛滥,气象部门及时发出暴雨重要天气预报、积极做好"三个叫应"工作并主动提供滚动气象信息服务,"防灾减灾,气象先行",减少了经济损失。通过总结和提炼,形成服务业务有目标、服务过程有流程、服务效果有标准,达到了基层气象服务更加接地气、贴民心、有实效。     

冬春季判断积雨云的难点

结合长期的工作实践,总结出观测积雨云的经验：当稳定云层有暗亮或观测此云感到有耀眼且云底阴森可怕时,稳定云层上面就有强对流云产生,若天空越加阴暗,云高降低,雨滴加大,压温湿变化明显,测站上空十之八九就有积雨云存在了。     

陕西干旱灾害特征分析

利用１９４９～１９９５近４７年陕西逐年灾情资料,用统计学方法,就陕西干旱灾害的时空分布规律及其特征进行了分析,并指出旱灾成因。得出结论,陕西年年有旱灾,２年有一次明显旱灾,５年有次中旱,１０年有一次大干旱,特大干旱为６５年一遇。     

识别Windows自启动程序

W indows自动启动程序的方式有许多种,有开机时启动的,有登陆时启动的,也有做为系统服务启动的。了解自动启动程序的不同方式,不仅可以满足用户应用程序启动的不同需求,还可以更深入的了解W indows系统,删除一些无用的自启动程序,更有效地利用系统的资源。     

南海暖池初步研究

观测事实表明,南海有暖池存在。本文主要采用南海２０ｍ层的水温分布资料,讨论了南海暖池的时空演变特征,并结合地转流和海洋环流数值模拟的结果探讨了暖池的形成机制。结果南海暖池有显著的季节张年际变化;暖池的发展除有太阳辐射有关外,还与海洋中涡旋活动及从印度洋输入的暖水有密切关系。     

浚县38年气温变化特征分析

根据浚县1963～2000年气温资料,利用时间与要素相关法,结合平均气温5年滑动平均值变化曲线和平均气温年际变化曲线,分析了浚县38年来年平均气温以及春、夏、秋、冬各季平均气温变化的特征.结果表明年平均气温有增高的变化趋势;春季平均气温有增高的变化趋势,但年际变幅比较小,增高趋势不十分明显;夏季有逐年减小的变化趋势;秋季有不明显的增加趋势;冬季平均气温有十分明显增高趋势.     

识别Windows自启动程序

Windows自动启动程序的方式有许多种, 有开机时启动的,有登陆时启动的,也有做为系统服务启动的.了解自动启动程序的不同方式,不仅可以满足用户应用程序启动的不同需求,还可以更深入的了解Windows系统,删除一些无用的自启动程序,更有效地利用系统的资源.     

Strategies to adapt to an uncertain climate change

Many decisions concerning long-lived investments already need to take into account climate change. But doing so is not easy for at least two reasons. First, due to the rate of climate change, new infrastructure will have to be able to cope with a large range of changing climate conditions, which will make design more difficult and construction more expensive. Second, uncertainty in future climate makes it impossible to directly use the output of a single climate model as an input for infrastructure design, and there are good reasons to think that the needed climate information will not be available soon. Instead of optimizing based on the climate conditions projected by models, therefore, future infrastructure should be made more robust to possible changes in climate conditions. This aim implies that users of climate information must also change their practices and decision-making frameworks, for instance by adapting the uncertainty-management methods they currently apply to exchange rates or R&D outcomes. Five methods are examined: (i) selecting “no-regret” strategies that yield benefits even in absence of climate change; (ii) favouring reversible and flexible options; (iii) buying “safety margins” in new investments; (iv) promoting soft adaptation strategies, including long-term prospective; and (v) reducing decision time horizons. Moreover, it is essential to consider both negative and positive side-effects and externalities of adaptation measures. Adaptation–mitigation interactions also call for integrated design and assessment of adaptation and mitigation policies, which are often developed by distinct communities.     

How to attribute market leakage to CDM projects

Abstract

Economic studies suggest that market leakage rates of greenhouse gas abatement can reach the two-digit percentage range. Although the Marrakesh Accords require Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects to account for leakage, most projects neglect market leakage. Insufficient leakage accounting is facilitated by a lack of applicable methods regarding the quantification and attribution of project-related leakage effects. This article proposes a method for attributing CDM-related market leakage effects to individual projects. To this purpose, alternative attribution methods are analysed. We find that project-specific approaches fail to take account of market leakage effects. Consequently, we propose to estimate aggregate market leakage effects and attribute them proportionally to individual projects. We suggest that predetermined commodity-specific leakage factors are applied by project developers to any emission reductions that are associated with a project's leakage-relevant demand or supply changes. This approach is conservative, equitable, incentive-compatible and applicable at manageable costs.     

An approach to adaptation to climate changes in Poland

Adopted by COP 10 (Dec 1/CP.10) and approved by the MOP1, the Buenos Aires programme of adaptation and response measures opens doors to intensify preparations for expected climate change. By this decision the COP, requested the SBSTA to develop a structured 5-year programme of work of the SBSTA on the scientific, technical and socio-economic aspects of impacts of, and vulnerability and adaptation to, climate change. Consequently, the COP, by its decision 2/CP.11, adopted the “Five-year programme of work of the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change” Finally during COP12 this programme was approved as “Nairobi Work Programme on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change”. This programme has fundamental significance not only for developing countries, but also for industrialized nations in which some sectors of the or social life are particularly vulnerable to climate change, specifically, inter alia EIT countries and new EU Member States. Further development of this adaptation programme economy should contain steps that provide optimum economic and social effectiveness, risk management, identification of vulnerable sectors and gaps in knowledge, preparation of a list of policy options, including an analysis of cost effectiveness, selection of the most effective policies, and a preparedness implementation plan. In Poland the preliminary adaptation programme covered agriculture, water management, and coastal zone management. For the time being, gaps in knowledge and preparedness measures have been identified. An estimation of possible impact on these areas was based on chosen GCMs, and sea level rise IPCC scenarios. In conclusion, it was stated that the results achieved should be seen as a first step forward and a more comprehensive study is necessary to update the results and cover other sectors of the economy, such as health protection, spatial planning, ecosystems and forestry, and to develop specific guidelines and recommendations for policy-makers.     

Framing the way to relate climate extremes to climate change

The atmospheric and ocean environment has changed from human activities in ways that affect storms and extreme climate events. The main way climate change is perceived is through changes in extremes because those are outside the bounds of previous weather. The average anthropogenic climate change effect is not negligible, but nor is it large, although a small shift in the mean can lead to very large percentage changes in extremes. Anthropogenic global warming inherently has decadal time scales and can be readily masked by natural variability on short time scales. To the extent that interactions are linear, even places that feature below normal temperatures are still warmer than they otherwise would be. It is when natural variability and climate change develop in the same direction that records get broken. For instance, the rapid transition from El Ni?o prior to May 2010 to La Ni?a by July 2010 along with global warming contributed to the record high sea surface temperatures in the tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans and in close proximity to places where record flooding subsequently occurred. A commentary is provided on recent climate extremes. The answer to the oft-asked question of whether an event is caused by climate change is that it is the wrong question. All weather events are affected by climate change because the environment in which they occur is warmer and moister than it used to be.     

如何将DOMINO邮件数据库移动到另外一个分区

随着用户的增多,MOMINO邮件服务器上的硬盘空间越来越少,如果不增加硬盘空间,将会严重影响到系统的运行,甚至死机。一个解决方案是:为服务器新增一个大硬盘,将数据库文件移到新硬盘上。如何以最小的代价、最快的速度、尽量不影响用户的正常使用来完成此项工作呢?通过查询相关资     

利用防火墙软件实现市、县局用户共享上网

介绍采用WinRoute Firewall软件实现市、县局用户共享上网的方法,使市县局用户既能共享网络资源,又能有效地保障网络安全.     

如何将DOMINO邮件数据库移动到另外一个分区

随着用户的增多,MOMINO邮件服务器上的硬盘空间越来越少,如果不增加硬盘空间,将会严重影响到系统的运行,甚至死机.一个解决方案是:为服务器新增一个大硬盘,将数据库文件移到新硬盘上.如何以最小的代价、最快的速度、尽量不影响用户的正常使用来完成此项工作呢?通过查询相关资料,并做了实验,发现有两种方法相对简单.     

利用防火墙软件实现市、县局用户共享上网

介绍采用W inRoute F irewall软件实现市、县局用户共享上网的方法,使市县局用户既能共享网络资源,又能有效地保障网络安全。     

Linear response functions to project contributions to future sea level

We propose linear response functions to separately estimate the sea-level contributions of thermal expansion and solid ice discharge from Greenland and Antarctica. The response function formalism introduces a time-dependence which allows for future rates of sea-level rise to be influenced by past climate variations. We find that this time-dependence is of the same functional type, R(t) ～ t ^α, for each of the three subsystems considered here. The validity of the approach is assessed by comparing the sea-level estimates obtained via the response functions to projections from comprehensive models. The pure vertical diffusion case in one dimension, corresponding to α =  ?0.5, is a valid approximation for thermal expansion within the ocean up to the middle of the twenty first century for all Representative Concentration Pathways. The approximation is significantly improved for α =  ? 0.7. For the solid ice discharge from Greenland we find an optimal value of α =  ?0.7. Different from earlier studies we conclude that solid ice discharge from Greenland due to dynamic thinning is bounded by 0.42 m sea-level equivalent. Ice discharge induced by surface warming on Antarctica is best captured by a positive value of α = 0.1 which reflects the fact that ice loss increases with the cumulative amount of heat available for softening the ice in our model.     

Options to overcome the barriers to pricing European agricultural emissions

Although agriculture could contribute substantially to European emission reductions, its mitigation potential lies untapped and dormant. Market-based instruments could be pivotal in incentivizing cost-effective abatement. However, sector specificities in transaction costs, leakage risks and distributional impacts impede its implementation. The significance of such barriers critically hinges on the dimensions of policy design. This article synthesizes the work on emissions pricing in agriculture together with the literature on the design of market-based instruments. To structure the discussion, an options space is suggested to map policy options, focusing on three key dimensions of policy design. More specifically, it examines the role of policy coverage, instruments and transfers to farmers in overcoming the barriers. First, the results show that a significant proportion of agricultural emissions and mitigation potential could be covered by a policy targeting large farms and few emission sources, thereby reducing transaction costs. Second, whether an instrument is voluntary or mandatory influences distributional outcomes and leakage. Voluntary instruments can mitigate distributional concerns and leakage risks but can lead to subsidy lock-in and carbon price distortion. Third, the impact on transfers resulting from the interaction of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) with emissions pricing will play a key role in shaping political feasibility and has so far been underappreciated.

POLICY RELEVANCE

Following the 2015 Paris Agreement, European climate policy is at a crossroads. Achieving cost-effectively the 2030 and 2050 European targets requires all sectors to reduce their emissions. Yet, the cornerstone of European climate policy, the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), covers only about half of European emissions. Major sectors have been so far largely exempted from carbon pricing, in particular transport and agriculture. While transport has been increasingly under the spotlight as a possible candidate for an EU ETS sectoral expansion, policy discussions on pricing agricultural emissions have been virtually absent. This article attempts to fill this gap by investigating options for market-based instruments to reduce agricultural emissions while taking barriers to implementation into account.