Vertical Structure of Selected Turbulence Characteristics above an Urban Canopy

Summary In this paper the results of an urban measurement campaign are presented. The experiment took place from July 1995 to February 1996 in Basel, Switzerland. A total of more than 2000 undisturbed 30-minute runs of simultaneous measurements of the fluctuations of the wind vector u′, v′, w′ and the sonic temperature θ _s ′ at three different heights (z=36, 50 and 76 m a.g.l.) are analysed with respect to the integral statistics and their spectral behaviour. Estimates of the zero plane displacement height d calculated by the temperature variance method yield a value of 22 m for the two lower levels, which corresponds to 0.92 h (the mean height of the roughness elements). At all three measurement heights the dimensionless standard deviation σ _w /u _* is systematically smaller than the Monin-Obukhov similarity function for the inertial sublayer, however, deviations are smaller compared to other urban turbulence studies. The σ_θ/θ_* values follow the inertial sublayer prediction very close for the two lowest levels, while at the uppermost level significant deviations are observed. Profiles of normalized velocity and temperature variances show a clear dependence on stability. The profile of friction velocity u _* is similar to the profiles reported in other urban studies with a maximum around z/h=2.1. Spectral characteristics of the wind components in general show a clear dependence on stability and dimensionless measurement height z/h with a shift of the spectral peak to lower frequencies as thermal stability changes from stable to unstable conditions and as z/h decreases. Velocity spectra follow the −2/3 slope in the inertial subrange region and the ratios of spectral energy densities S _w (f)/S _u (f) approach the value of 4/3 required for local isotropy in the inertial subrange. Velocity spectra and spectral peaks fit best to the well established surface layer spectra from Kaimal et al. (1972) at the uppermost level at z/h=3.2. Received September 26, 1997 Revised February 15, 1998     

Properties of spatial temperature derivatives in the atmospheric surface layer

A pair of parallel cold wires separated in either the vertical or lateral direction was used to obtain the three components _x, _y, _z of the temperature derivative in the streamwise, lateral and vertical directions, respectively. The average absolute skewness values of _x and _z are nonzero and approximately equal, while the skewness of _y is approximately zero. These results appear to be consistent with the presence of a large, three-dimensional organised structure in the surface layer. There is an apparent low-frequency contamination in the spectral density of _y and _z due mainly to small errors in estimating the sensitivity of the cold wires. The temperature derivatives were high-pass filtered, the filter being set to remove possible contributions from the large structure and to minimise low-frequency sensitivity contamination. The filtered rms ratios \~_x/\~_y and \~_x/\~_z were in the range 0.7 to 0.9, a result in qualitative agreement with that obtained in the laboratory boundary layer by Sreenivasan et al. (1977). The skewness of filtered _x or _z is negligible, consistent with local isotropy of small-scale temperature fluctuations and in support of the high wavenumber spectral isotropy discussed in Antonia and Chambers (1978).     

Spectral scaling in a high reynolds number laboratory boundary layer

Spectra and co-spectra of the streamwise (u) and normal or vertical (w) velocity fluctuations have been measured in the inner region of a large Reynolds number laboratory boundary layer over a rough wall. There is reasonable evidence of ak ₁ ^–1 range in theu spectrum (wherek ₁ is the streamwise wavenumber). Such a range results from an overlap between a spectral region dominated by largescale, inactive motion, which scales on the boundary-layer thickness, and a region dominated by smaller-scale, active motion which scales on the distance from the wall. Spectra ofw, anduw cospectra, scale in a manner consistent with the dominance by active motion. The present spectral data do not support local isotropy over the inertial subrange. A comparison between measuredw spectra and calculations based on isotropy indicates that the inertial subrange anisotropy is only slightly affected by the magnitude of the non-dimensional mean shear.     

Sea-breeze Front Variations in Space and Time

Summary  This paper is a contribution to experimental meteorology: A sea-breeze front was investigated by aircraft observations and thorough numerical analysis using an unprecedented number of runs crossing the same front within a timespan of . The 33 runs were flown in a situation of offshore geostrophic wind of 5 m/s in 1000 hPa and with the strategy of obtaining information on the four-dimensional field (t=time, x=cross-coastal coordinate, y=coast-parallel coordinate, z=height): 9 runs in x-direction (and reverse) at different heights to yield x,z-cross-sections of the observed meteorological quantities (specific humidity q, potential temperature Θ and the components u, v and w of the wind velocity), assuming a frozen structure in time; the next 7 runs again in x-direction but all at the same level and on the same track to yield x,t-diagrams of the same quantities in order to study the temporal changes compared to those with x and z; the next 10 runs as a zig-zagging flight track crossing the front but drifting in y-direction, all at the same height, in order to obtain the y-dependency; andfinally 7 runs for another x,z-cross-sectional analysis, which can be compared to that evaluated from the runs at the beginning of the mission. The paper describes the 4-dimensional dependencies in detail. Pure x-variations at constant z are expressed by VCM low-pass filtered space series (VCM=variance conserving multiresolution, according to Howell and Mahrt, 1994). The x,z-analyses are similar to those in Kraus et al. (1990) and Finkele et al. (1995) verifying these results. The comparison of the x,z-studies gained from the data at the beginning and at the end of the mission show how the sea-breeze frontal area changes its structure. The fluctuations (in time) revealed by the low-pass filtered x,t-runs (same track and same height) are smaller than the contour intervals chosen in the x,z-cross-sections. This shows, that the single runs, from which the x,z-cross-sections are constructed, reliably and significantly contribute to the interpolated structure. The paper also demonstrates the overall development of the front within the 3^1/2 h of continuous observation. The x,y-fields demonstrate that the y-dependency of the various quantities is generally one order of magnitude smaller than the x-dependency and that the assumption of negligible y-dependency holds in the first order of approximation for a fairly homogeneous coast. Convective disturbances of a horizontal scale of 1 to 4 km at the landward side of the front, embedded in the offshore flow and bouncing against the landward propagating sea-breeze front, considerably contribute to variations of the frontal propagation speed and of the frontal shape and also to changes of the parameters with the along-frontal coordinate y. Received April 24, 1998 Revised November 3, 1998     

A Study in Search of Interconnection between Surface Parameters and Surrounding Synoptic And Subsynoptic Features

The paper reveals that the variations in parameters like u*, the scaling velocity and θ*. The scaling tempera-ture during the various phases of monsoon might be linked with subsynoptic features. The rise in u* is mainly connected with the presence of lower tropospheric cyclonic vorticity over a subsynoptic scale of the site. However the variations in θ* is mainly linked with the various phases of monsoon and θ* shows a sharp rise in presence of low level convective cloud.Besides the correlation studies of u and u*, θv and θv* , θv-θv0 and θv* are undertaken. The correlation be?tween θv and θv* is poor. In other two cases correlations are good. Besides u/u* , has shown good coefficient of variation values within the ζ range.     

2003年淮河流域大水期间体积降水量的研究

针对 2 0 0 3年梅雨期淮河流域大水提出了体积降水量的概念及其计算方法 ,在计算出淮河流域和其各子流域逐日和总体积降水量的基础上 ,将体积降水量与水文站的水位和流量进行了对比分析。结果表明 :水位对累计体积降水量有较好的即时响应 ,流量对体积降水量有较好的延迟响应。另外 ,讨论了流域体积降水量的预报问题 ,用国内外数值天气预报产品和中央气象台指导预报产品 ,进行了流域体积降水量预报试验 ,并对预报结果进行了检验分析。结果表明 :在目前天气预报水平条件下 ,利用数值天气预报和中央气象台业务预报产品制作体积降水量是可行的 ,能够延长洪水预报的预见期 ;而且 ,数值天气预报产品在预报体积降水量方面有明显的优势 ,因此可以直接利用数值天气预报产品进行体积降水量的客观预报 ,为防汛工作提供重要的依据。     

Dependence of geostrophic drag on intensity of convection,baroclinicity, and acceleration

This paper examines the practical importance of stability, baroclinicity, and acceleration in the bulk ABL similarity formulations, in light of the random errors inherent in field measurements. This is done by propagating the measurement uncertainties through a theoretical model for the bulk ABL similarity functionsA ₀ andB ₀, under a range of assumed (but always unstable) conditions. It is shown that random measurement errors and acceleration effects may overwhelm most effects of baroclinicity and stability, once conditions are at least slightly unstable. Because of this, it is hard to discern a clear functional dependence ofA ₀ andB ₀ on degree of instability. Thus, for a given value ofh _i/z₀, whereh _i is the inversion height andz ₀ is the surface roughness, the geostrophic drag coefficient, which depends onA ₀ andB ₀, and weakly onh _i/z₀, may also be taken to be nearly independent of degree of instability.     

Surface-layer profile evaluation using a generalization of Robinson's method for the determination ofd andz 0

The iteration scheme of Robinson (1962) for the determination ofz ₀ andd under neutral atmospheric stability has been generalized in a relatively simple manner. It now accounts for nonneutral conditions and permits simultaneous calculation ofd,z ₀, and flux densities of latent and sensible heat. Using profile data sets given in the literature, the generalized scheme yields results which agree quite well with those obtained by Kramm (1989).     

An Evaluation of the Flux–Gradient Relationship in the Stable Boundary Layer

Data collected during the SHEBA and CASES-99 field programs are employed to examine the flux–gradient relationship for wind speed and temperature in the stably stratified boundary layer. The gradient-based and flux-based similarity functions are assessed in terms of the Richardson number Ri and the stability parameter z/Λ_*, z being height and Λ_* the local Obukhov length. The resulting functions are expressed in an analytical form, which is essentially unaffected by self-correlation, when thermal stratification is strong. Turbulence within the stably stratified boundary layer is classified into four regimes: “nearly-neutral” (0 < z/Λ_* < 0.02), “weakly-stable” (0.02 < z/Λ_* < 0.6), “very-stable” (0.6 < z/Λ_* < 50), and “extremely-stable” (z/Λ_* > 50). The flux-based similarity functions for gradients are constant in “nearly-neutral” conditions. In the “very-stable” regime, the dimensionless gradients are exponential, and proportional to (z/Λ_*)^3/5. The existence of scaling laws in “extremely-stable” conditions is doubtful. The Prandtl number Pr decreases from 0.9 in nearly-neutral conditions and to about 0.7 in the very-stable regime. The necessary condition for the presence of steady-state turbulence is Ri < 0.7.     

Temporal variations of atmospheric tides over Athens,Greece

Summary The mean daily march of pressure (hourly values) for each month of the 96 year period 1894–1989 in Athens, Greece is studied using Fourier analysis. The annual variation of the harmonic parameters (amplitude, time of maximum,x andy-components) is examined. The globally excited 2nd and 3rd harmonics show in general the same behaviour as in other places of the Earth. Similar features show the corresponding parameters of the daily solar radiation march. The first harmonic displays some local characteristics. The long period fluctuations study revealed statistically significant trends in most parameters of the 2nd harmonic, most strikingly the 0.5 h shift in the time of its maximum during the 20th century. Power spectrum analysis showed the existence of a biennial oscillation inB ₁, thex-component of the first harmonic, but this oscillation is mainly confined to the second half of the entire period. A periodicity of about 6 years which could be associated to the Southern Oscillation was also found inB ₁ while inA ₁, they-component, a periodicity close to the 11-year solar cycle and another one close to the nutation of the Earth's axis are present. The lunar tides are too small to be detected by the same methods. However the semilunar tide was revealed to be 10–20 times smaller than the semisolar.With 8 Figures     

Can Water Vapour Raman Lidar Resolve Profiles of Turbulent Variables in the Convective Boundary Layer?

High-resolution water vapour measurements made by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Raman lidar operated at the Southern Great Plains Climate Research Facility site near Lamont, Oklahoma, U.S.A. are presented. Using a 2-h measurement period for the convective boundary layer (CBL) on 13 September 2005, with temporal and spatial resolutions of 10 s and 75 m, respectively, spectral and autocovariance analyses of water vapour mixing ratio time series are performed. It is demonstrated that the major part of the inertial subrange was detected and that the integral scale was significantly larger than the time resolution. Consequently, the major part of the turbulent fluctuations was resolved. Different methods to retrieve noise error profiles yield consistent results and compare well with noise profiles estimated using Poisson statistics of the Raman lidar signals. Integral scale, mixing-ratio variance, skewness, and kurtosis profiles were determined including error bars with respect to statistical and sampling errors. The integral scale ranges between 70 and 130 s at the top of the CBL. Within the CBL, up to the third order, noise errors are significantly smaller than sampling errors and the absolute values of turbulent variables, respectively. The mixing-ratio variance profile rises monotonically from ≈0.07 to ≈3.7 g² kg⁻² in the entrainment zone. The skewness is nearly zero up to 0.6 z/z _i , becomes −1 around 0.7–0.8 z/z _i , crosses zero at about 0.95 z/z _i , and reaches about 1.7 at 1.1 z/z _i (here, z is the height and z _i is the CBL depth). The noise errors are too large to derive fourth-order moments with sufficient accuracy. Consequently, to the best of our knowledge, the ARM Raman lidar is the first water vapour Raman lidar with demonstrated capability to retrieve profiles of turbulent variables up to the third order during daytime throughout the atmospheric CBL.     

Characteristics of microscale evapotranspiration: a comparative analysis

Summary ?Evapotranspiration characteristics on the point-scale (several hundred square meters) and the local scale (several square kilometers) are analysed by comparing a deterministic and a statistical – deterministic surface energy balance model. The vegetation surface variability is represented by both the surface heterogeneity and inhomogeneity. Heterogeneity means the mosaic of wet (wif ≠ 0) and dry (1-wif) fractions of vegetation surface, while inhomogeneity addresses small scale variations of soil moisture content. The microscale characteristics of evapotranspiration are considered in terms of analysing evapotranspiration E _v versus soil moisture content θ, relative frequency distribution characteristics of E _v (θ) and the aggregation algorithms for its estimation. The analyses are performed for loam soil type under different atmospheric forcing conditions. The main result is as follows: For dry vegetation surface (wif = 0), the relationship between the aggregated (θ_agg) and the area-averaged (θ _m ) soil moisture content is nonlinear and depends on both the states of the surface and the atmospheric forcing conditions. In the study, we assumed that there are no advective effects and mesoscale circulation patterns induced by surface discontinuities. Based on this fact it seems unlikely to be able to construct an aggregation algorithm for calculating θ_agg without inclusion of the atmospheric forcing conditions. This means that it will be difficult to construct a simple formula for calculating area-averaged transpiration, if it is possible at all. Received May 3, 2001; revised May 31, 2002; accepted June 3, 2002     

Large-Eddy Simulation of Flow and Pollutant Transports in and Above Two-Dimensional Idealized Street Canyons

A large-eddy simulation (LES) model, using the one-equation subgrid-scale (SGS) parametrization, was developed to study the flow and pollutant transport in and above urban street canyons. Three identical two-dimensional (2D) street canyons of unity aspect ratio, each consisting of a ground-level area source of constant pollutant concentration, are evenly aligned in a cross-flow in the streamwise direction x. The flow falls into the skimming flow regime. A larger computational domain is adopted to accurately resolve the turbulence above roof level and its influence on the flow characteristics in the street canyons. The LES calculated statistics of wind and pollutant transports agree well with other field, laboratory and modelling results available in the literature. The maximum wind velocity standard deviations σ _i in the streamwise (σ _u ), spanwise (σ _v ) and vertical (σ _w ) directions are located near the roof-level windward corners. Moreover, a second σ _w peak is found at z ≈ 1.5h (h is the building height) over the street canyons. Normalizing σ _i by the local friction velocity u _*, it is found that σ _u /u _* ≈ 1.8, σ _v /u _* ≈ 1.3 and σ _w /u _* ≈ 1.25 exhibiting rather uniform values in the urban roughness sublayer. Quadrant analysis of the vertical momentum flux u′′w′′ shows that, while the inward and outward interactions are small, the sweeps and ejections dominate the momentum transport over the street canyons. In the x direction, the two-point correlations of velocity R _v,x and R _w,x drop to zero at a separation larger than h but R _u,x (= 0.2) persists even at a separation of half the domain size. Partitioning the convective transfer coefficient Ω _T of pollutant into its removal and re-entry components, an increasing pollutant re-entrainment from 26.3 to 43.3% in the x direction is revealed, suggesting the impact of background pollutant on the air quality in street canyons.     

Radiometrically determined skin temperature and scalar roughness to estimate surface heat flux. Part I: Parameterization of radiometric scalar roughness

A series of experiments carried out in a pasture field during a growing season, allowed a radiometric determination of the scalar roughness for sensible heatz _oh,r . The values ofz _oh,r are shown to vary over the range of 10^–1–10^–7m both diurnally and seasonally, and an existing theoretical model for the estimation of scalar roughness for sensible heat is found to be inappropriate for the precise estimation ofz _oh,r . To parameterizez _oh,r better, a multiple regression analysis was performed, with predictor candidates such as solar elevation, solar radiationR _s , leaf area index LAI, canopy height, the ratio of the solar radiation and the extraterrestrial radiationR _s /R _e , the ratio of the direct and the total solar radiationR _d /R _s , and the roughness Reynolds number among others. The best regression equation which usesR _s , LAI,R _s /R _e , andR _d /R _s is derived withr=0.75; with smaller numbers of predictors, values ofr tend to deteriorate gradually down tor=0.52 when only one predictor, LAI, was incorporated into the equation.     

Spatial Variability of Both Turbulent Fluxes and Temperature Profiles in an Urban Roughness Layer

The spatial variability of both turbulent flow statistics in the roughness sublayer (RSL) and temperature profiles within and above the canopy layer (CL) were investigated experimentally in a densely built-up residential area in Tokyo, Japan. Using five towers with measuring devices, each tower isolated from the others by at least 200 m, we collected high-frequency measurements of velocity and temperature at a height z=1.8 z _H, where z _H, the mean building height in the area, is 7.3 m. Also, temperature profiles were measured from z=0.4 to 1.8 z _H. The ‘areal mean’ geometric parameters that were obtained for the areas within 200 m of each tower were fairly homogeneous among the tower sites. The main results are as follows: (1) The spatial variability of all RSL turbulent statistics, except the sensible heat flux, was comparable to that reported in a pine forest. Also, the variability decreased with increasing friction velocity. (2) The spatial variability of the RSL sensible heat flux was larger than that reported in a pine forest. Also, the variability depended on the time of the day and became larger in the morning. The difference among the sites was well related to the areal fraction of vegetation. (3) The spatial variability of the CL temperature profile depended on the time of the day and became larger in the morning. Nevertheless, the spatial standard deviation of CL temperature was always below 0.7 K. (4) It is suggested that the “warming-up” process in the morning when heat storage is dominant increases the spatial variation of RSL sensible heat flux and CL temperature according to the local properties around each tower and the variation decreases once there is further convective mixing in the midday     

Katabatic flow with Coriolis effect and gradually varying eddy diffusivity

Katabatic flows over high-latitude long glaciers experience the Coriolis force. A sloped atmospheric boundary-layer (ABL) flow is addressed which partly diffuses upwards, and hence, becomes progressively less local. We present the analytical and numerical solutions for (U ,V, θ) depending on (z, t) in the katabatic flow, where U and V are the downslope and cross-slope wind components and θ is the potential temperature perturbation. A Prandtl model that accounts for the Coriolis effect, via f, does not approach a steady state, because V diffuses upwards in time; the rest, i.e., (U, θ), are similar to that in the classic Prandtl model. The V component behaves in a similar manner as the solution to the 1st Stokes (but inhomogeneous) problem. A WKB approach to the problem of the sloped ABL winds is outlined in the light of a modified Ekman-Prandtl model with gradually varying eddy diffusivity K(z). Ideas for parameterizing these high-latitude persistent flows in climate models are revealed. After Wentzel, Kramers and Brillouin, who popularized the method in theoretical physics.     

Relating Urban Surface-layer Structure to Upwind Terrain for the Salford Experiment (Salfex)

Profiles of wind and turbulence over an urban area evolve with fetch in response to surface characteristics. Sodar measurements, taken on 22 April 2002 during the Salford Experiment in the UK (Salfex), are here related to upstream terrain. A logarithmic layer up to z = 65m was observed in all half-hour averaged profiles. Above this height the profile showed a different vertical gradient, suggesting a change in surface cover upstream. The drag coefficient varied by a factor of two over only a 20° direction change. Turbulence intensity (σ _x ) for each wind component (x) decreased with height, but the ratio suggested an underestimate of σ _u compared to previous results. Mean urban and suburban cover fraction within the source area for each height decreased sharply between z = 20 and 50m, increasing slightly above. The near-convergence of cover fractions thus occured for source areas of minimum length ≈ 2,200 m. In comparison, the mean length scale of heterogeneity L _P was calculated from surface cover data to be 1,284 m, and the corresponding mean blending height h _b was 175 m. Finally, the mean streamline angle, α, was negative and the magnitude decreased with height. An exponential fit to α for z ≤ 65m gave an e-folding height scale of 159 m. A simple relationship between this height scale and L _P was assumed, giving L _P ≈ 1,080 m, which is in reasonable agreement with the estimate from surface cover type. The results suggest that more emphasis is required on modelling and measuring surface-layer flow over heterogeneous urban canopies.     

Scaling Properties of Temperature Spectra and Heat-Flux Cospectra in the Surface Friction Layer Beneath an Unstable Outer Layer

Temperature variance and temperature power spectra in the unstable surface layer have always presented a problem to the standard Monin-Obukhov similarity model. Recently that problem has intensified with the demonstration by Smedman et al. (2007, Q J Roy Meteorol Soc 133: 37–51) that temperature spectra and heat-flux cospectra can have two distinct peaks in slightly unstable conditions, and by McNaughton et al. (2007, Nonlinear Process Geophys 14: 257–271) who showed that the wavenumber of the peak of temperature spectra in a convective boundary layer (CBL), closely above the surface friction layer (SFL), can be sensitive to the CBL depth, z _i. Neither the two-peak form at slight instability nor the dependence of peak position on z _i at large instability is compatible with the Monin-Obukhov model. Here we examine the properties of temperature spectra and heat-flux cospectra from between these extremes, i.e. from within the unstable SFL, in two experiments. The analysis is based on McNaughton’s model of the turbulence structure in the SFL. According to this model, heat is transported through most of the SFL by sheet plumes, created by the action of impinging outer eddies. The smallest and most effective of these outer eddies have sizes that scale on SFL depth, z _s. The z _s-scale eddies and plumes are organised within the overall convection pattern in the CBL, and in turn they organise the motion of smaller eddies within the SFL, whose sizes scale on height, z. The main experimental results are: (1) the peak amplitudes of the temperature spectra in the SFL are collapsed with a scaling factor (z_sz)^1/3e_o^2/3{(z_{\rm s}z)^{1/3}\varepsilon_{\rm o}^{2/3}} divided by the square of the surface temperature flux, where e_o{\varepsilon_{\rm o}} is the dissipation rate of turbulent energy in the outer CBL (above the SFL); (2) the peak wavenumbers of the temperature spectra are collapsed with the mixed length scale (z _i z _s)^1/2; (3) the peak wavenumbers of the heat-flux cospectra are collapsed with the doubly-mixed length scale (z _i z _s)^1/4 z ^1/2; (4) for z/z _s < 0.03, the peak in the cospectrum is replaced by another peak at a wavenumber about a magnitude larger. This peak’s position scales on z; (5) all these findings are consistent with the observations of Smedman et al.     

Flux-Variance Method for Latent Heat and Carbon Dioxide Fluxes in Unstable Conditions

Applied previously to momentum and heat fluxes, the present study extends the flux-variance method to latent heat and CO₂ fluxes in unstable conditions. Scalar similarity is also examined among temperature (θ), water vapour (q), and CO₂ (c). Temperature is adopted as the reference scalar, leading to two feasible strategies to estimate latent heat and CO₂ fluxes: the first one relies on flux-variance similarity relations for scalars, while the second is based on the parameterization of relative transport efficiency in terms of scalar correlation coefficient and a non-dimensional quantity. The relationship between the θ-to-q transport efficiency (λ _{θ q} ) and θ-q correlation coefficient (R _{θ q} ) is used to describe the intermediate hydrological conditions. We also parameterize the θ-to-c transport efficiency (λ _{θ c} ) as a function of the θ-c correlation coefficient (R _{θ c} ) by introducing a new non-dimensional ratio (α). The flux-variance method is a viable technique for flux gap-filling, when turbulence measurements of wind velocity are not available. It is worth noting that the extended method is not exempt from a correction for density effects when used for estimating water or carbon exchange.     

Determination of kolmogorov entropy of chaotic attractor included in one—dimensional time series of meteorological data

The 1970-1985 day to day averaged pressure dataset of Shanghai and the extension method in phase space are used to calculate the correlation dimension D and the second-order Renyi entropy K2 of the approximation of Kolmogorov’s entropy, the fractional dimension D = 7.7~7.9 and the positive value K2 ≈ 0.1 are obtained. This shows that the attractor for the short-term weather evolution in the monsoon region of China exhibits a chaotic mo-tion. The estimate of K2 yields a predictable time scale of about ten days. This result is in agreement with that ob-tained earlier by the dynamic-statistical approach.The effects of the lag time τ on the estimate of D and K2 are investigated. The results show that D and K2 are convergent with respect to τ. The day to day averaged pressure series used in this paper are treated for the extensive phase space with τ = 5, the coordinate components are independent of each other; therefore, the dynamical character quantities of the system are stable and reliable.