地面热通量对降水的影响

本文利用一个10层细网格模式,在考虑边界层摩擦和积云对流参数化的基础上,设计了几种方案,就地面热通量对暴雨系统的影响进行敏感性试验,得出以下初步结果:(1)在一定的环境流场下,地面热通量对最大降水的发生时间可能发生影响,可使午后降水减小,凌晨降水加大;(2)地面热通量对降水影响的主要机制是通过改变近地层的层结稳定度来改变地面湍流系数,并与低空急流中心风速的水平分布不均相耦合,造成水平散度场和水汽辐合场的改变,并通过平流作用将此变化了的场移至雨区上空,引起雨区降水条件的改变;(3)云和CO_2对辐射和地面热     

防护林地区近地面层湍流结构及通量特征研究

本文采用在大面积防护林地区近地面边界层中采集的湍流、辐射和廓线梯度资料,计算并分析了湍流结构及通量特征。结果表明:当-0.1<ξ<0.1范围内时,湍流动能,湍流强度随稳定度变化迅速;位温宏观量σ/θ_*服从σ_θ/θ_*=A(-ξ)~(1/3)规律,A=0.60;在湍流混合强烈时,林网内下层出现负潜热通量现象,并且林网上层潜热通量明显大于下层;湍流热通量则相反。本文还对计算湍流热通量和潜热通量的方法的适用性也做了比较,并且分别进行了误差分析。     

内蒙古奈曼流动沙丘下垫面湍流输送特征初步研究

分析了2000年7月21日～8月10日在内蒙古奈曼流动沙丘下垫面取得的近地面层湍流及辐射观测资料,讨论了无量纲湍流方差与稳定度参数z/L的关系,发现无量纲速度分量方差及无量纲温度、湿度脉动方差在不稳定层结下,均满足莫宁-奥布霍夫相似理论;同时还讨论近地面层能量的收支.发现流动沙丘下垫面感热通量与地表热通量最大值分别为170 W m-2及100 W m-2;潜热通量通常小于50 W m-2;流动沙丘净辐射最大值为400 W m-2左右.(Hs+Hl),与(Rn-G)的比值在晴天白天平均值为0.78左右,流动沙丘下垫面近地面层能量不平衡现象存在,其原因有待进一步研究.     

变分方法估算西北半干旱区地表热通量的适用性研究

利用2009年6-8月兰州大学半干旱气候与环境观测站(SACOL)的地表辐射观测资料,近地层大气温度、湿度和水平风速的三层梯度观测资料,以及热通量的涡动相关观测,比较了变分法估算的地表热通量与涡动相关观测值间差异,评估了不同相似函数对变分法估算地表热通量的影响.结果表明,变分法估算的地表热通量在时间变化趋势上与涡动相关观测值一致,但在中午前后时段还存在数值大小差异.不同相似函数对变分法估算热通量的影响不一样:当层结不稳定时,其对热通量估算的影响较大;当层结不稳定变弱时,影响会显著变小;当层结稳定时,影响非常小,与观测误差相比可以忽略.     

鄱阳湖地区复杂地表条件下一次强降水过程的近地面边界层特征

使用鄱阳湖北部70 m气象塔湍流和梯度观测数据,分析了2011年6月6日夜间一次暴雨过程中近地面边界层特征.结果表明,此次过程是在高空低槽和西南急流的天气背景下,受鄱阳湖复杂地表影响产生的局地性强降水.强降水发生前受东南暖平流影响,近地面边界层中水汽累积,不稳定性增加;强降水过程中,近地层感热、潜热通量迅速增加,同时,近地面层湍流动量通量下传和水平输送增加,鄱阳湖的水汽输送加强降水强度.另外,强降水过程中,近地面湍流动能迅速增大并达到最大值,而平均动能的增大发生在强降水结束后,表明地表作用明显,近地面边界层的湍流场为暴雨提供动力条件.尺度分析表明,强降水前,中尺度动量通量占主要地位,降水过程中湍流动量通量显著加强.     

一次梅雨锋暴雨的边界层热通量输送与湍流动能收支分析

利用中尺度WRF模式对于2007年7月一次典型的梅雨锋暴雨过程进行了高分辨率数值模拟,对于边界层内的热通量输送和湍流动能的时空变化特征,以及湍流动能各收支项的分布及变化特征进行了分析。结果表明,降水发生时段内边界层热通量和湍流动能的时空分布特征与晴空日变化特征表现出显著不同,潜热通量随高度自下而上呈现"正—负—正"的分布,感热通量以负值为主,负值中心高度与潜热通量由负转正的高度相对应,湍流动能的发展高度与持续时间都有所增加,降水区近地面湍流动能弱于其他区域,但是在468 m以上高度则显著强于其他区域。降水区湍流动能的来源主要是平均风切变所产生的机械湍流,浮力作用与粘性耗散在降水期间消耗湍流动能,湍流输送作用将低层的湍流动能输送至较高的高度,使低层减小而高层增大,临界高度与湍流动能的大值中心高度对应。     

地面辐射雾和低层云对夜间边界层影响的数值研究

本文通过模式计算,讨论了夜间地面辐射雾和低层层积云的演变过程及其对边界层结构的影响.模式综合考虑了液态水和水汽对长波辐射通量的贡献.模式主要由两部分组成:(1)用湍流能量方程闭合的一维边界层模式;(2)长波辐射通量的计算.模式的计算结果与观测事实基本一致.     

沙尘天气过程沙地下垫面沙尘通量的获取与分析研究

利用浑善达克沙地地区2004年春季沙尘暴和微气象学加强观测实验资料,计算了浑善达克沙地地区不同沙尘天气条件下湍流交换系数、湍流动量通量和感热通量、沙尘浓度通量;研究了沙尘暴过程中湍流作用、沙尘输送特征及起沙条件。结果显示:浑善达克沙地地区非沙尘天气白天近地层热力湍流作用强于动力湍流,湍流交换以感热交换为主;沙尘天气过程中,近地面层湍流动力作用明显增加,湍流动量和感热交换都对湍流输送有主要贡献,感热通量数值有不同程度的降低。较强沙尘暴天气过程中动力湍流强于热力湍流。随着沙尘天气经历起沙、平衡、沉降的演变过程,沙尘通量数值呈现由正值为主,过渡到向上和向下数值相当、向下数值比例增加。非沙尘天气、扬沙天气和沙尘暴天气过程的沙尘通量值范围分别是±5μg/(m2.s)、±30μg/(m2.s)和-200—300μg/(m2.s)之间。浑善达克沙地地区,非沙尘天气也存在一定量的沙尘输送,但数值较小。浑善达克沙地地区沙尘通量与摩擦速度的三次方成正比,为F=Cu3*。临界起沙风速和临界摩擦速度分别约为6m/s和0.4m/s。     

夜间稳定边界层中间歇性湍流热通量的 提取及其谱特征

在夜间稳定边界层中, 湍流热通量往往具有间歇性特征。在一阵阵出现的强度较大的湍流热通量之间, 混杂着弱噪声或其他微弱的难以辨识的高频脉动信号。为了研究间歇性湍流热通量的特征, 必须将这些无关信 号剔除, 以提取出干净的湍流热通量。本文提出了一种新的提取间歇性湍流热通量的方法, 该方法通过分析 湍流热通量的概率密度函数, 并与稳定分布进行比较, 湍流热通量的概率密度函数开始偏离稳定分布的位置, 即是间歇性湍流热通量开始出现的阈值。本文通过夜间稳定边界层外场试验数据的验证, 发现利用稳定分布确定 的阈值可有效地提取出间歇性湍流热通量。在此基础之上, 本文对比了提取前后湍流热通量的功率谱, 发现 提取后低频信号的方差所占比重下降, 而高频信号略有上升。此外, 间歇性湍流热通量在高频区的功率谱满足“-7/6”律。     

北京地区一次典型大雾天气过程的边界层特征分析

利用中国科学院大气物理研究所325 m铁塔15层风、温、湿梯度观测资料和3层超声资料,对2002年12月1~4日发生在北京地区的持续大雾天气过程进行近地面层大气边界层特征分析。结果表明,近地面大气边界层较大的相对湿度(70%)、较小的风速(3.0 m.s-1)和风速垂直切变(0.02 s-1)、稳定的层结结构以及较低的气温是北京持续大雾天气形成的主要原因。冷空气的侵入使得边界层相对湿度迅速减小,风速和风速垂直切变增大,破坏近地面大气边界层的结构,导致大雾的消散。分析还发现,大雾的维持与消散主要受风场等动力因素的影响,热力层结是大雾维持和消散的必要条件。冷空气的侵入自上而下影响平均风场,而对湍流风场的影响则是自下而上的。尺度分析结果表明,大雾期间,近地面边界层内中尺度动量通量和感热通量都大于湍流尺度的,中尺度动量通量与平均风速基本呈反相关;冷空气的侵入使得湍流通量显著加强,是导致大雾天气消失的主要原因。     

加强业务管理提高测报质量

我局从1999～2003年,测报工作连续4年未出现错情,在此期间共有1个250个班,9个百班无错通过上级业务部门验收.在仪器保管、使用、维护上符合要求,对外报送的各种表、簿都能做好出门合格.     

Quantifying the uncertainty of the annular mode time scale and the role of the stratosphere

The impact of high resolution modern vegetation cover on the West African climate is examined using the International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model implementing the NCAR Community Land Model. Two high resolution 25 km long-term simulations driven by the output from a coarser 50-km resolution simulation are performed for the period 1998–2010. One high resolution simulation uses an earlier and coarser-resolution version of plant functional type distribution and leaf area index, while the other uses a more recent, higher-quality, and finer-resolution version of the data. The results indicate that the new land cover distribution substantially alters the distribution of temperature with warming in Central Nigeria, northern Gulf of Guinea and part of the Sahel due to the replacement of C4 grass with corn; and cooling along the coastlines of the Gulf of Guinea and in Central Africa due to the replacement of C4 grass with tropical broadleaf evergreen trees. Changes in latent heat flux appear to be largely responsible for these temperature changes with a net decrease (increase) in regions of warming (cooling). The improved land cover distribution also results in a wetter monsoon season. The presence of corn tends to favor larger precipitation amounts via more intense events, while the presence of tropical broadleaf evergreen trees tends to favor the occurrence of both more intense and more frequent events. The wetter conditions appear to be sustained via (1) an enhanced soil moisture feedback; and (2) elevated moisture transport due to increased low-level convergence in regions south of 10N where the most substantial land cover differences are present. Overall the changes induced by the improved vegetation cover improve, to some extent, the performance of the high resolution regional climate model in simulating the main West African summer monsoon features.     

由中国历史气候记录对季风导致唐朝灭亡说的质疑

2007年1月4日杂志发表了Yancheva等10人的题为"Influence of the intertropical convergence zone on the East-Asian monsoon"(热带辐合带对东亚季风的影响)的论文[1],这是德国波兹坦地学研究中心气候动力与沉积学科的主管豪格(G.H.Haug)率领的科研小组的一项成果,认为是季风的变化引起的长期干旱导致了唐朝的灭亡.     

On the forecast of the onset and end of the convective season in the Amazon

Summary ?Some features of the climate system that can be considered predictors of the onset and end of the convective season over the Amazon were identified using one-month lag correlations and field composites. The fields analyzed were sea surface temperature (SST), outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR), vertical velocity and upper tropospheric winds. Warm (cold) anomalies in the SST in the tropical North Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea tend to be associated with delayed (early) onsets. Likewise, there is a tendency towards a delayed (early) end of the convective season with cold (warm) anomalies in these ocean regions. In addition, the SST in the cold tongue region of the equatorial Pacific is negatively, though weakly correlated with the onset date. The signal of this SST is more evident in the case of the end date, which is earlier with respect to its mean date in most of El Ni?o cases. The convective activity intensity itself conditions the onset and the end of the convective season, as it is evidenced by the behavior of the OLR and the vertical velocity fields. The more (less) intense the convective activity over South America during the preceding month, the earlier the onset and the later the end of the convective season on the Amazon region. The prediction of the onset and end dates of the convective season in the Amazon region was explored using a simple multiple regression technique based on the variables that have shown precursor signals with respect to these dates. The correlation coefficient between the predicted and the observed onset date is 0.81, and in the case of the end date, it is 0.76. The skill to predict early, delayed and normal categories was high, since in more than two thirds of the cases the category was successfully predicted, and there were no predictions of categories opposed to those observed. Received July 23, 2001; revised February 22, 2002; accepted April 26, 2002     

Comparing the theoretical versions of the Beaufort scale, the T-Scale and the Fujita scale

2005 is the bicentenary of the Beaufort Scale and its wind-speed codes: the marine version in 1805 and the land version later. In the 1920s when anemometers had come into general use, the Beaufort Scale was quantified by a formula based on experiment. In the early 1970s two tornado wind-speed scales were proposed: (1) an International T-Scale based on the Beaufort Scale; and (2) Fujita's damage scale developed for North America. The International Beaufort Scale and the T-Scale share a common root in having an integral theoretical relationship with an established scientific basis, whereas Fujita's Scale introduces criteria that make its intensities non-integral with Beaufort. Forces on the T-Scale, where T stands for Tornado force, span the range 0 to 10 which is highly useful world wide. The shorter range of Fujita's Scale (0 to 5) is acceptable for American use but less convenient elsewhere. To illustrate the simplicity of the decimal T-Scale, mean hurricane wind speed of Beaufort 12 is T2 on the T-Scale but F1.121 on the F-Scale; while a tornado wind speed of T9 (= B26) becomes F4.761. However, the three wind scales can be uni-fied by either making F-Scale numbers exactly half the magnitude of T-Scale numbers [i.e. F′half = T / 2 = (B / 4) − 4] or by doubling the numbers of this revised version to give integral equivalence with the T-Scale. The result is a decimal formula F′double = T = (B / 2) − 4 named the TF-Scale where TF stands for Tornado Force. This harmonious 10-digit scale has all the criteria needed for world-wide practical effectiveness.     

准两年振荡对大气中微量气体分布的影响

NCAR的包含化学、辐射、动力相互作用的两维模式（SOCRATES）移植回国后进行了初步的模拟试验,用以研究某些对环境问题重要的微量气体的化学、辐射、动力传输过程。在不考虑极地平流层云和气溶胶表面非均相化学等情况下,模式积分多年,计算结果稳定,模拟的风场、温度场显示出正常的季节变化,模拟的微量气体分布与卫星实测资料对照,结果也比较一致。为了探讨热带平流层风场的准两年周期振荡（QBO）对平流层微量气体分布的影响,我们做了QBO强迫的数值试验,即在模式中加入QBO强迫,并与不考虑QBO强迫的模拟结果对比。结果表明,QBO与其相关的次级环流所引起动力输送的变化,使平流层微量气体分布发生变化。     

Analysis of the Characteristics of the Low-level Jets in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River during the Mei-yu Season

Here, we analyze the characteristics and the formation mechanisms of low-level jets(LLJs) in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River during the 2010 mei-yu season using Wuhan station radiosonde data and the fifth generation of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ERA5) reanalysis dataset. Our results show that the vertical structure of LLJs is characterized by a predominance of boundary layer jets(BLJs) concentrated at heights of 900–1200 m.The BLJs occur most frequently at 230...     

流场配置及地形对西南低涡形成的动力作用

本文采用定常二层模式讨论较小地形及高、低层流场配置对西南低涡形成的动力作用。指出了西南低涡的形成是与盆地、河谷以及其上气流分层有关的一种定常态.在上、下为西风分层时期,低层的浅薄暖湿西风有利于西南低涡的形成.在上、下为东、西风分层时期,上层浅薄东风亦有利于西南低涡的形成.小型的凸起山脉对西南低涡的形成没有作用.