近55a来中国严寒和寒冷地区主要城镇采暖气候条件的变化研究

近半个世纪以来气候变暖明显,全球过去50 a年平均气温线性趋势达到0.13°C/10 a,而中国近50 a年平均气温线性趋势几乎是全球的2倍,其中冬季增温速率高达0.39°C/10 a。中国的气候变暖对严寒和寒冷地区的采暖耗能无疑会产生显著影响。文章以中国《民用建筑节能设计标准(采暖居住建筑部分)》JCJ26-95中附录A所列的严寒和寒冷地区84个主要城镇为研究对象,分析了这些城镇1951年以来采暖期长度、采暖强度的趋势变化速率,结果表明,采暖期长度和采暖强度大多呈减少趋势,其中采暖期长度减少比较明显的是东北及内蒙古自治区大多城镇,减少速率在-5d/10a～-3d/10a之间;采暖强度减少趋势更加明显。为了研究采暖气候条件的平均状况,本文计算了最近30 a(1976～2005年)采暖期长度及采暖强度的平均状况,并与1951～1980年30 a均值进行了比较,发现东北地区大多城镇采暖期长度减少超过5 d;东北地区和内蒙古自治区大多城镇采暖强度减少超过200℃.d。对近30 a采暖期采暖耗煤变化率的研究表明:除四川省的康定外,其它城镇建筑单位面积耗煤量由于气候变暖采暖耗煤变化率均有一定程度减少,其中个别城镇减少量超过10%。     

气候变暖对呼和浩特地区采暖期能源消耗的影响

利用呼和浩特市1962—2007年逐日气温以及采暖期供热部门提供的相关参数,运用数理统计等分析方法,参照采暖供热等相关规范,综合分析了呼和浩特市采暖变化特征以及气候变暖对采暖能耗的影响。结果表明:随着气候变暖,呼和浩特市采暖期比实际采暖期缩短30d,尤其是在1988年气温发生突变之后,采暖期缩短趋势更加明显。采暖期能耗的高低与采暖度日和采暖期长度关系极为密切。近46年呼和浩特市采暖度日与采暖期长度均呈现显著下降趋势,说明呼和浩特市冬季寒冷程度减弱,寒冷期变短,如果采取措施可以有效降低采暖能耗。呼和浩特市采暖需求偏多年份88%以上出现在20世纪60—70年代,而约有85%的偏少年份出现在20世纪90年代至21世纪初期。     

内蒙古地区采暖期变化特征及预测方法

利用内蒙古地区58个站点1961—2008年逐日平均气温资料,用数理统计等分析方法,参照采暖供热等相关规范,综合分析了内蒙古地区采暖期各要素变化特征,初步提出了采暖初日、终日和采暖期能源需求预测模型,并经过检验与实况基本相符。结果表明:①近48年内蒙古地区采暖初日推后、终日提前、采暖期缩短,说明随着气候变暖,内蒙古地区冬季变暖,寒冷期缩短。②内蒙古地区采暖期要素的变化与纬度的高低密切相关。纬度越高,采暖期缩短越多,使表征采暖能耗多少的采暖度日值减少越明显,采暖期能源消耗越少,节能减排潜力越大。③随着气候变暖,内蒙古地区冬季寒冷程度和寒冷期变短,采暖能源需求量减少,采暖能耗降低,其集中供热强度和耗热量降低,从而可减少CO_2、CH_4、SO_2等温室气体的排放强度。④采暖起止日、采暖长度以及采暖期能源需求与气温变化密切相关。由此构建的采暖初日、终日和能源需求预测模型,可信度较高,可根据月动力延伸预报产品,提早做出不同地区采暖起止日期和采暖期能源需求趋势预测,减少能源的浪费,为供热部门科学决策提供参考。     

宁夏冬季采暖期对气候变暖的响应

利用1961~2014年(10月至次年4月)宁夏20个气象站气候资料,分析宁夏冬季采暖期的时空变化特征,以及采暖期内气候资源的变化特征及其对采暖强度的影响。结果表明:(1)宁夏由南到北采暖初日推迟,终日提前,采暖强度减弱;(2)与实际供暖初、终日期相比,北部引黄灌区采暖初日偏晚,终日偏早,采暖长度短于供暖长度;中部干旱带两者基本接近;南部山区采暖初日偏早,终日偏晚,采暖长度长于供暖长度;(3)随着气候变暖,近53 a宁夏采暖初日推后,终日提前,终日提前趋势较初日推后趋势更明显,采暖期长度缩短,北部引黄灌区缩短最多;整体上,采暖强度显著减弱,但2002年以后中北部地区气温降低,导致日平均采暖强度及采暖强度有增加趋势;(4)夜间升温对采暖强度减小的贡献大于白天升温的贡献;(5)近53 a日照时数和降水量变化对中南部地区采暖强度的影响大于北部引黄灌区;(6)气候变暖对减少冬季采暖能耗的贡献为12.8%~16.5%,但中北部地区2002年以后对减少采暖能耗的贡献有所降低。     

太原冬季采暖期气温变化特征与节能效应分析

采用太原市1951～2003年冬季采暖期逐日气温资料,应用气候方法分析了采暖期平均气温以及与能耗相关的采暖初日、终日、采暖度日等要素的变化特征.结果表明:采暖期气温存在明显升高趋势.而且在20世纪80年代末发生跃变;采暖初日在逐年推后,采暖终日的年代际变化振荡较大,90年代以来有明显提前趋势,采暖期在逐年缩短;采暖度日存在明显减少趋势.结合供暖指标,分别从平均气温升高、采暖期缩短及采暖度日减少等方面进行节能效应分析,指出有必要改变传统的采暖模式.城市采暖具有很大的节能潜力.     

气候变暖对刚察县采暖气象条件的影响及节能潜力分析

利用青海省刚察县1961-2008年逐日气温资料,运用数理统计等方法,分析了该地区采暖期气象条件变化及节能潜力。结果表明,近47年来,刚察县采暖期平均气温上升,负积温减少,采暖初日推迟、终日提前,采暖长度明显缩短;采暖度日与采暖期平均气温关系密切,采暖度日呈极显著下降趋势,特别是1994年气温突变后,下降趋势更加明显,冬季寒冷程度有所减弱,能耗需求量减小;该县采暖能源需求异常偏多主要分布在20世纪60年代,偏多年份以70-80年代为主,偏少年份出现在20世纪80年代中期以后,主要集中在2000年以后;气候变暖使采暖节能率为7%,这对节约能源、减少大气污染和温室气体排放较为有利。     

气候变暖对刚察县采暖气象指标的影响及节能潜力分析

利用青海省刚察县1961—2008年逐日气温资料,运用数理统计等方法,分析了该地区采暖期气象条件变化及节能潜力。结果表明,1961—2008年间,刚察县采暖期平均气温上升,负积温减少,采暖初日推迟、终日提前,采暖长度明显缩短;采暖度日与采暖期平均气温关系密切,采暖度日呈极显著下降趋势,特别是1994年气温突变后,下降趋势更加明显,冬季寒冷程度有所减弱,能耗需求量减小;该县采暖能源需求异常偏多主要分布在20世纪60年代,偏多年份以70—80年代为主,偏少年份出现在80年代中期以后,主要集中在2000年以后。气候变暖所致采暖节能率为7%,这对节约能源、减少大气污染和温室气体排放较为有利。     

青海高原未来SRESA1B情景下气候变化分析

利用国家气候中心发布的中国地区气候变化预估数据集中的全球气候模式加权平均集合数据,分析了未来温室气体中等排放情景下(SRESA1B),青海高原不同地区未来气候变化趋势,并分析了2020时段和2050时段青海高原不同地区的气候特点,分析结果表明:2001—2100年青海各地气温均呈明显的增加趋势,全省平均增温率为4.09℃/100年,年降水量呈增多趋势,全省平均变化率为62.63mm/100年。与气候基准年相比,2020年全省年平均气温升高1.44℃,全省平均降水距平百分率为4.18%;2050年全省平均升温幅度为2.63℃,全省平均降水距平百分率为8.75%。由于目前全球气候模式的分辨率还较低,气候模式在诸多方面还有待完善,因此所提供的未来情景数据存在一定的不确定性。     

气候变化背景下对巴彦浩特市实施弹性供暖的分析与建议

文章利用巴彦浩特1954—2013年逐日平均气温资料,采用数理统计等方法,参照采暖供热相关规范,对巴彦浩特地区采暖期间平均温度、初终日、采暖天数、采暖期度日值的年际、年代际变化规律进行分析。结果表明：1954—2013年巴彦浩特地区采暖期变化趋势为初日推后,终日提前;采暖期天数、采暖期度日值呈显著减小趋势;气候变暖背景下,巴彦浩特实施弹性供暖以采暖期天数变化估计可比目前实际供暖方式节约采暖能耗7%～20%。建议巴彦浩特地区可采取弹性供暖的方式,合理规划,以达到节能减排目的。     

枣庄近48年采暖期气候条件变化分析

根据国家规范中关于采暖气候条件的规定,利用枣庄市气象局1960—2007年的气象资料,统计分析了枣庄11月—次年3月份气温变化情况,得到枣庄市采暖期的采暖初、终日期、采暖期长度、采暖强度,为枣庄城市集中供热决策管理提供参考依据。结果表明:①枣庄采暖期多年平均开始日期为11月30日,结束日期为3月5日,采暖长度为96天,年平均采暖强度为377℃·d;②近48年,枣庄市冬季采暖期缩短,采暖强度倾向率为-46.98℃·d/10a,变暖趋势明显。③采暖期内,12月27日至次年2月4日是一年内最冷的时段,日平均气温低于0℃以下的时间为38天,需要的采暖强度最大。     

CHARACTERISTICS AND TRENDS OF CLIMATIC EXTREMES IN CHINA DURING 1959–2014

The spatial and temporal variations of daily maximum temperature(Tmax), daily minimum temperature(Tmin), daily maximum precipitation(Pmax) and daily maximum wind speed(WSmax) were examined in China using Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method. The results indicated that for China as a whole, Tmax, Tmin and Pmax had significant increasing trends at rates of 0.15℃ per decade, 0.45℃ per decade and 0.58 mm per decade,respectively, while WSmax had decreased significantly at 1.18 m·s~(-1) per decade during 1959—2014. In all regions of China, Tmin increased and WSmax decreased significantly. Spatially, Tmax increased significantly at most of the stations in South China(SC), northwestern North China(NC), northeastern Northeast China(NEC), eastern Northwest China(NWC) and eastern Southwest China(SWC), and the increasing trends were significant in NC, SC, NWC and SWC on the regional average. Tmin increased significantly at most of the stations in China, with notable increase in NEC, northern and southeastern NC and northwestern and eastern NWC. Pmax showed no significant trend at most of the stations in China, and on the regional average it decreased significantly in NC but increased in SC, NWC and the mid-lower Yangtze River valley(YR). WSmax decreased significantly at the vast majority of stations in China, with remarkable decrease in northern NC, northern and central YR, central and southern SC and in parts of central NEC and western NWC. With global climate change and rapidly economic development, China has become more vulnerable to climatic extremes and meteorological disasters, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of climatic extremes,such as environmentally-friendly and low-cost energy production systems and the enhancement of engineering defense measures are necessary for government and social publics.     

Could the Recent Taal Volcano Eruption Trigger an El Ni?o and Lead to Eurasian Warming?

正The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth's climate and environment.     

ANALYSIS OF “BIMODAL PATTERN” STORM ACTIVITY CHARACTERISTICS OF THE BAY OF BENGAL

Storms that occur at the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are of a bimodal pattern, which is different from that of the other sea areas. By using the NCEP, SST and JTWC data, the causes of the bimodal pattern storm activity of the BoB are diagnosed and analyzed in this paper. The result shows that the seasonal variation of general atmosphere circulation in East Asia has a regulating and controlling impact on the BoB storm activity, and the “bimodal period” of the storm activity corresponds exactly to the seasonal conversion period of atmospheric circulation. The minor wind speed of shear spring and autumn contributed to the storm, which was a crucial factor for the generation and occurrence of the “bimodal pattern” storm activity in the BoB. The analysis on sea surface temperature (SST) shows that the SSTs of all the year around in the BoB area meet the conditions required for the generation of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, the SSTs in the central area of the bay are higher than that of the surrounding areas in spring and autumn, which facilitates the occurrence of a “two-peak” storm activity pattern. The genesis potential index (GPI) quantifies and reflects the environmental conditions for the generation of the BoB storms. For GPI, the intense low-level vortex disturbance in the troposphere and high-humidity atmosphere are the sufficient conditions for storms, while large maximum wind velocity of the ground vortex radius and small vertical wind shear are the necessary conditions of storms.     

LOW-FREQUENCY CIRCULATION AND EXTENDED-RANGE FORECAST IN CONNECTION WITH AUTUMN EXTREME HEAVY RAINFALL PROCESS IN HAINAN

Observed daily precipitation data from the National Meteorological Observatory in Hainan province and daily data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis-2 dataset from 1981 to 2014 are used to analyze the relationship between Hainan extreme heavy rainfall processes in autumn (referred to as EHRPs) and 10–30 d low-frequency circulation. Based on the key low-frequency signals and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) model forecasting products, a dynamical-statistical method is established for the extended-range forecast of EHRPs. The results suggest that EHRPs have a close relationship with the 10–30 d low-frequency oscillation of 850 hPa zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north, and that they basically occur during the trough phase of the low-frequency oscillation of zonal wind. The latitudinal propagation of the low-frequency wave train in the middle-high latitudes and the meridional propagation of the low-frequency wave train along the coast of East Asia contribute to the ‘north high (cold), south low (warm)’ pattern near Hainan Island, which results in the zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north reaching its trough, consequently leading to EHRPs. Considering the link between low-frequency circulation and EHRPs, a low-frequency wave train index (LWTI) is defined and adopted to forecast EHRPs by using NCEP CFSv2 forecasting products. EHRPs are predicted to occur during peak phases of LWTI with value larger than 1 for three or more consecutive forecast days. Hindcast experiments for EHRPs in 2015–2016 indicate that EHRPs can be predicted 8–24 d in advance, with an average period of validity of 16.7 d.     

AN ATTRIBUTION ANALYSIS OF CHANGES IN POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IN THE BEIJING–TIANJIN–HEBEI REGION UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE

Based on the measurements obtained at 64 national meteorological stations in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region between 1970 and 2013, the potential evapotranspiration (ET0) in this region was estimated using the Penman–Monteith equation and its sensitivity to maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), wind speed (Vw), net radiation (Rn) and water vapor pressure (Pwv) was analyzed, respectively. The results are shown as follows. (1) The climatic elements in the BTH region underwent significant changes in the study period. Vw and Rn decreased significantly, whereas Tmin, Tmax and Pwv increased considerably. (2) In the BTH region, ET0 also exhibited a significant decreasing trend, and the sensitivity of ET0 to the climatic elements exhibited seasonal characteristics. Of all the climatic elements, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv in the fall and winter and Rn in the spring and summer. On the annual scale, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv, followed by Rn, Vw, Tmax and Tmin. In addition, the sensitivity coefficient of ET0 with respect to Pwv had a negative value for all the areas, indicating that increases in Pwv can prevent ET0 from increasing. (3) The sensitivity of ET0 to Tmin and Tmax was significantly lower than its sensitivity to other climatic elements. However, increases in temperature can lead to changes in Pwv and Rn. The temperature should be considered the key intrinsic climatic element that has caused the "evaporation paradox" phenomenon in the BTH region.     

Revisiting the Concentration Observations and Source Apportionment of Atmospheric Ammonia

正While China’s Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan on particulate matter since 2013 has reduced sulfate significantly, aerosol ammonium nitrate remains high in East China. As the high nitrate abundances are strongly linked with ammonia, reducing ammonia emissions is becoming increasingly important to improve the air quality of China. Although satellite data provide evidence of substantial increases in atmospheric ammonia concentrations over major agricultural regions, long-term surface observation of ammonia concentrations are sparse. In addition, there is still no consensus on     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA OF AIR–SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AND ITS VARIATION ACROSS SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE PAST 35 YEARS

Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.     

Analysis of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Height Characteristics over the Arctic Ocean Using the Aircraft and GPS Soundings

正ERRATUM to: Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 4(2011), 124-130 On page 126 of the printed edition (Issue 2, Volume 4), Fig. 2 was a wrong figure because the contact author made mistake giving the wrong one. The corrected edition has been updated on our website. The editorial office is sincerely sorry for any     

Index to Vol.31

正AN Junling;see LI Ying et al.;(5),1221—1232AN Junling;see QU Yu et al.;(4),787-800AN Junling;see WANG Feng et al.;(6),1331-1342Ania POLOMSKA-HARLICK;see Jieshun ZHU et al.;(4),743-754Baek-Min KIM;see Seong-Joong KIM et al.;(4),863-878BAI Tao;see LI Gang et al.;(1),66-84BAO Qing;see YANG Jing et al.;(5),1147—1156BEI Naifang;