Characteristics and Diagnosis of the Landfalling Tropical Cyclones in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area of China During 1981-2018

This paper applies statistical and synthetic analysis methods to study the characteristics of the three types of tropical cyclone (TC) that landed in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) from 1981 to 2018 and the reasons for the differences of TC-induced wind and precipitation. The results show that there are interdecadal changes in the frequency and intensity of the landfalling TCs in the GBA, with decreased frequency but increased intensity in the 2010s. The TCs that landed in the west of the Pearl River Estuary (PRE) have the most frequency and the strongest intensity during landing, which bring the strongest winds; the TCs that landed in the PRE have the least frequency and the shortest duration after landing, which cause the strongest precipitation; the TCs that landed in the east of the PRE have the relatively longest duration on the land. This study shows that near the center of the TCs that landed in the PRE, there is a weak anomalous cyclonic shear compared with the ones that landed in the west of the PRE. Compared with the TCs that landed in the east of the PRE, it is a confluence area of anomalous north wind and anomalous southwest wind, with better water vapor convergence and dynamic rising conditions, which is conducive to the formation of heavy precipitation. Compared with the TCs that landed in the PRE and in its east, there is a closed positive anomalous center of pressure gradient in the northwest center of the TCs that landed in its west, resulting in higher wind speeds in the west of the PRE. The characteristics of the three types of TCs in the GBA are highly related to TC-induced damage. In the future, the GBA needs to focus on preventing TCs landing in its west. Zhuhai, Jiangmen and Huizhou are key cities to guard against TCs. The results of this study provide foundations for effective management and reduction of TC disaster risks in the future construction of the GBA.     

Impacts of Diurnal Variation of Mountain-plain Solenoid Circulations on Precipitation and Vortices East of the Tibetan Plateau during the Mei-yu Season简

Diurnal variations of two mountain-plain solenoid （MPS） circulations associated with ＂first-step＂ terrain [Tibetan Plateau （TP）] and ＂second-step＂ terrain （high mountains between the TP and ＂east plains＂） in China and their influence on the south west vortex （SWV） and the mei-yu front vortex （MYFV） were investigated via a semi-idealized mesoscale numerical model [Weather Research and Forecasting （WRF）] simulation integrated with ten-day average fields （mei-yu period of 1-10 July 2007）. The simulations successfully reproduced two MPS circulations related to first and second-step terrain, diurnal vari- ations from the eastern edge of the TP to the Yangtze River-Huaihe River valleys （YHRV）, and two precipitation maximum centers related to the SWV, MYFV. Analyses of the averaged final seven-day simulation showed the different diurnal peaks of precipitation at different regions： from the aftemoon to early evening at the eastern edge of the TP; in the early evening to the next early morning in the Sichuan Basin （SCB）; and in the late evening to the next early morning over the mei-yu front （MYF）. Analyses of individual two-day cases confirmed that the upward branches of the nightlime MPS circulations enhanced the precipitation over the SWV and the MYFV and revealed that the eastward extension of the SWV and its con vection were conducive to triggering the MYFVs. The eastward propagation of a rainfall streak from the eastern edge of the TP to the eastern coastal region was primarily due to a series of convective activities of several systems from west to east, including the MPS between the TP and SCB, the SWV, the MPS between second-step terrain and tile east plains, and the MYFV.     

TYPICAL ANOMALOUS WIND STRESS PATTERNS IN TROPICAL PACIFIC ASSOCIATED WITH EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION

Based on years of month-to-month observations of sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) and wind stress anomaly, typical wind stress patterns in the tropical Pacific associated with ENSO are Studied with the techniques of linear regression and EOF analysis. The anomalous field, which is linearly correlated with ENSO, is found to be varying at low frequencies on the temporal scale and to be in four typical patterns of distribution horizontally.Pattern 1 is of the easterly anomaly and wind stress divergence in the equatorial region east of the date line. Pattern 2 is of the westerly anomaly and wind sttess convergence in the equatorial region east of the date line. Pattern 3 is of the westerly anomaly and wind stress convergence south of the Equator but east of the data line, with the easterly anomaly west of it. Pattern 4 is of the weak easerly anomaly east 160°W and the westerly anomaly west of 160°W. Wind stress fields linearly independent of ENSO are of a high-frequency process with a typical pattern off the Equator that has a large horizontal amplitude. Using an ocean anomaly-forcing model with the regressed wind stress anomaly field that is associated with ENSO, principal signals of ENSO are reproduced. It indicates the fundamental nature of the typical wind field anomaly patterns revealed for the genesis of El Nino.     

Impacts of Steering Flows with Different Timescales on the Track of Typhoon Sanba(2012)

Typhoon Sanba(2012), the strongest tropical cyclone(TC) of the year worldwide, moved northward almost along130° longitude during its lifetime and passed through different background flows from low to high latitudes. The steering flows with different timescales for Sanba are retrieved by using the NCEP reanalysis data with the total wind field separated into: a mean state, an interannual component, an intraseasonal component, and a synoptic component.Our analysis indicates that the intraseasonal timescale wave train(WT) with east–west oriented circulations made the largest contribution to the movement of Sanba. The effects of the environmental steering with different timescales on Sanba's movement are investigated with numerical simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model. In the control simulation, total fields from the NCEP reanalysis are used as initial and boundary conditions,and the northward motion of Sanba is well captured. In sensitivity experiments, each of the intraseasonal and interannual components is removed one at a time. The steering vectors associated with these timescales can explain their influences on the movement of Sanba in the experiments. Vorticity budget analyses indicate that the horizontal vorticity advection made the largest contribution to the movement of the storm.     

Forecasting Zonda Wind Occurrence with Vertical Sounding Data

Zonda wind is a typical downslope windstorm over the eastern slopes of the Central Andes in Argentina,which produces extremely warm and dry conditions and creates substantial socioeconomic impacts.The aim of this work is to obtain an index for predicting the probability of Zonda wind occurrence.The Principal Component Analysis(PCA)is applied to the vertical sounding data on both sides of the Andes.Through the use of a binary logistic regression,the PCA is applied to discriminate those soundings associated with Zonda wind events from those that are not,and a probabilistic forecasting tool for Zonda occurrence is obtained.This index is able to discriminate between Zonda and non-Zonda events with an effectiveness close to 91%.The best model consists of four variables from each side of the Andes.From an eventbased statistical perspective,the probability of detection of the mixed model is above 97%with a probability of false detection lower than 7%and a missing ratio below 1%.From an alarm-based perspective,models exhibit false alarm rate below 7%,a missing alarm ratio lower than 1.5%and higher than 93%for the correct alarm ratio.The zonal component of the wind on both sides of the Andes and the windward temperature are the key variables in class discrimination.The vertical structure of Zonda wind includes two wind maximums and an unstable lapse rate at midlevels on the lee side and a wind maximum at 700 h Pa accompanied by a relatively stable layer near the mountain top.     

Analysis of Wind Power Assessment Based on the WRF Model

Assessing wind energy is a key step in selecting a site for a wind farm. The accuracy of the assessment is essential for the future operation of the wind farm. There are two main methods for assessing wind power： one is based on observational data and the other relies on mesoscale numerical weather prediction（NWP）. In this study, the wind power of the Liaoning coastal wind farm was evaluated using observations from an anemometer tower and simulations by the Weather Research and Forecasting（WRF） model, to see whether the WRF model can produce a valid assessment of the wind power and whether the downscaling process can provide a better evaluation. The paper presents long-term wind data analysis in terms of annual, seasonal, and diurnal variations at the wind farm, which is located on the east coast of Liaoning Province. The results showed that, in spring and summer, the wind speed, wind direction, wind power density, and other main indicators were consistent between the two methods. However, the values of these parameters from the WRF model were significantly higher than the observations from the anemometer tower. Therefore, the causes of the differences between the two methods were further analyzed. There was much more deviation in the original material, National Centers for Environmental Prediction（NCEP） final（FNL） Operational Global Analysis data, in autumn and winter than in spring and summer. As the region is vulnerable to cold-air outbreaks and windy weather in autumn and winter, and the model usually forecasted stronger high or low systems with a longer duration, the predicted wind speed from the WRF model was too large.     

INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION BETWEEN LOW AND MIDDLE LATITUDES ON ENSO VARIABILITY IN THE CANE-ZEBIAK MODEL

In this paper,an error source in the atmospheric component of the CZ(Cane-Zebiak)model isdiscussed,which is missing a free mode in“the exact solutions”.However,the improved schemeis proposed,which is the computational scheme with adjusted wind or observed u and v as lateralboundaries.The simulations show that the simulated surface wind by the improved scheme strong-ly bears resemblance to the observation except for the area near the west and the east boundaries ofthe integrated area.These results support the conclusion that the wind stress simulated by the im-proved scheme with lateral boundaries is much better than that simulated by the CZ model,andshow that interaction between low and middle latitudes has an important influence on the ENSOvariability in the CZ model.Therefore,considering its impact on the CZ model can improve capa-bility of the CZ model for simulating ENSO variability.     

INFLUENCE OF SPRING EQUATORIAL EASTERN PACIFIC SSTA ON THE SEASONAL CHANGE FROM SPRING TO SUMMER OF EASTERN ASIAN CIRCULATION

Based on the analysis of NCEP height, wind and OLR data, the influence of spring equatorial eastern Pacific SSTA on the seasonal change from spring to summer of eastern Asian circulation has been investigated. Results show that related to the warm (cold) spring SSTA in the equatorial eastern Pacific, the anomalous anticyclone (cyclone) circulation emerges around the South China Sea and the Philippines, the strong (weak) west Pacific subtropical high locates to the west (east) of its normal position, which induces to the late (early) onset of the South China Sea monsoon. The numerical simulations have also shown that the remarkable influence of spring SSTA in the equatorial eastern Pacific on the spring seasonal change of eastern Asian circulation will last till summer.     

NUMERICAL SIMULATION STUDY OF THE INNER-CORE STRUCTURES AND THE MECHANISM FOR INSHORE STRENGTHENING OF SOUTH CHINA SEA TYPHOON VONGFONG (0214) DURING LANDFALL

An explicit simulation with a fine mesh at intervals of 6 km is used to explore the inner-core structures of Vongfong (0214). The dynamic mechanism for the inshore strengthening of Vongfong is examined. It is found as follows. (1) The radius of maximum wind of the axisymmetric structures of the typhoon decreased with height during its mature stage. When Vongfong was inshore, the strongest low-layer inflow located in front of it and the outflow was to the rear of it, which was just reversed from the Atlantic hurricanes and other Pacific typhoons. (2) The dynamic and thermodynamic fields were highly asymmetric in structure. Convection was stronger in the northwest quadrant of the typhoon than in the southeast; the strongest convective cloud bands were consistent with the maximum wind region. During its strengthening stage, it was cold west of and warm east of the eye in the lower layer but warm in the west and cold in the east of the mid-upper layer. During its mature stage, a warm-core structure was evident in the lower and middle-upper layer. (3) The interactions between a mid-latitude cold low in the middle-upper troposphere and the typhoon were responsible for the latter to strengthen inshore. Firstly, the outer circulation of the cold low entered the typhoon from the middle troposphere when an outer cold airflow from the cold low flowed into the northwest quadrant of the typhoon so that geopotentially instable energy increased and convection developed. Secondly, the downdraft in the cold low was just the corresponding branch of the secondary circulation of the typhoon system; when the cold low weakened while moving south, the typhoon strengthened inshore. Due to the CISK mechanism, these two phenomena might be realized.     

THE IMPACT OF MOUNTAIN TO BASIN WINDS ON THE DIURNAL VARIATION IN FOG OVER THE SICHUAN BASIN, CHINA

There is an increased demand for the accurate prediction of fog events in the Sichuan Basin (SCB) using numerical methods. A dense fog event that occurred over the SCB on 22 December 2016 was investigated. The results show that this dense fog event was influenced by the southwest of a low pressure with a weak horizontal pressure gradient and high relative humidity. This fog event showed typical diurnal variations. The fog began to form at 1800 UTC on 21 December 2016 (0200 local standard time on 22 December 2016) and dissipated at 0600 UTC on 22 December 2016 (1400 local standard time on 22 December 2016). The Weather Research and Forecasting model was able to partially reproduce the main features of this fog event and the diurnal variation in the local mountain to basin winds. The simulated horizontal visibility and liquid water content were used to characterize the fog. The mountain to basin winds had an important role in the diurnal variation of the fog event. The positive feedback mechanism between the fog and mountain to basin winds was good for the formation and maintain of the fog during the night. During the day, the mountain to basin wind displayed a transition from downslope flows to upslope flows. Water vapor evaporated easily from the warm, strong upslope winds, which resulted in the dissipation of fog during the day. The topography surrounding the SCB favored the lifting and condensation of air parcels in the lower troposphere as a result of the low height of the lifting condensation level.     

Effects of atmospheric circulation and boundary layer structure on the dispersion of suspended particulates in the Seoul metropolitan area

Summary A three-dimensional non-hydrostatic numerical model and lagrangian particle model (random walk model) were used to investigate the effects of the atmospheric circulation and boundary layer structure on the dispersion of suspended particulates in the Seoul metropolitan area. Initially, emitted particulate matter rises from the surface of the city towards the top of the convective boundary layer (CBL), owing to daytime thermal heating of the surface and the combined effect of an onshore wind with a westerly synoptic-scale wind. A reinforcing sea-valley breeze directed from the coast toward the city of Seoul, which is enclosed in a basin and bordered by mountains to its east, disperses the suspended particulate matter toward the eastern mountains. Total suspended particulate concentration (TSP) at ground level in the city is very low and relatively high in the mountains. Radiative cooling of the surface produces a shallow nocturnal surface inversion layer (NSIL) and the suspended particulate matter still present near the top of the CBL from the previous day, sinks to the surface. An easterly downslope mountain wind is directed into the metropolitan area, transporting particulate matter towards the city, thereby recycling the pollutants. The particulates descending from the top of the NSIL and mountains, combine with particulates emitted near the surface over the city at night, and under the shallow NSIL spread out, resulting in a maximum ground level concentration of TSP in the metropolitan area at 2300 LST. As those particles move toward the Yellow Sea through the topographically shaped outlet west of Seoul city under the influence of the easterly land breeze, the maximum TSP concentration occurs at the coastal site. During the following morning, onshore winds resulting from a combined synoptic-scale westerly wind and westerly sea breeze, force particulates dispersed the previous night to move over the adjacent sea and back over the inland metropolitan area. The recycled particulates combine with the particulates emitted from the surface in the central part of the metropolitan area, producing a high TSP and again rise towards the top of the CBL ready to repeat the cycle.     

对1972年厄尼诺过程中印度洋和太平洋赤道地区风场变化的分析

1972—1973年发生了一次强厄尼诺过程。已有不少人对这次厄尼诺过程中海洋要素和气象要素的变化进行了分析。这些讨论均将范围局限于太平洋地区。本文利用了COADS资料,对印度洋、太平洋赤道地区风场和海温场的变化作了综合分析,井对它们的变化与厄尼诺的关系进行了讨论。     

A study of the diurnal behavior of boundary-layer winds at the Boulder Atmospheric Observatory

Diurnal wind variations are examined at the Boulder Atmospheric Observatory which is located 25 km east of the foothills of the Rocky Mountains. Data were obtained from a 300-m tower which was instrumented at eight levels and operated almost continuously for three weeks during September 1978. Observations on clear days, for which the diurnal heating and cooling of the local terrain slopes can be expected to affect the winds, show that daytime winds tend to be easterly (upslope) throughout the 300-m depth. At night, a temperature inversion typically develops to about 100 m. Below this level, the nocturnal flow tends to be downslope; above the inversion, a distinctly different regime of flow develops. A diurnal wind oscillation, characterized by strong southerly flow beginning near sunset and ending near midnight, occurred in the upper layer on 25% of the days during the study period. Rapid clockwise rotation of the wind vector occurred during the period of increased wind speed. This oscillation occurred only on days when the synoptic-scale geostrophic wind was southerly. It is suggested that this non-steady state behavior is an inertial oscillation affected by the diurnally varying temperature gradients and local topography.     

Influence of non-flat terrain and wind direction shear on canopy turbulence

We have analyzed eddy covariance data collected within open canopy to investigate the influence of non-flat terrain and wind direction shear on the canopy turbulence. The study site is located on non-flat terrain with slopes in both south-north and east-west directions. The surface elevation change is smaller than the height of roughness element such as building and tree at this site. A variety of turbulent statistics were examined as a function of wind direction in near-neutral conditions. Heterogeneous surface characteristics results in significant differences in measured turbulent statistics. Upwind trees on the flat and up-sloping terrains yield typical features of canopy turbulence while upwind elevated surface with trees yields significant wind direction shear, reduced u and w skewness, and negligible correlation between u and w. The directional dependence of turbulence statistics is due that strong wind blows more horizontally rather than following terrain, and hence combination of slope related momentum flux and canopy eddy motion decreases the magnitude of Sk _w and r _uw for the downslope flow while it enhances them for the upslope flow. Significant v skewness to the west indicates intermittent downdraft of northerly wind, possibly due to lateral shear of wind in the presence of significant wind direction shear. The effects of wind direction shear on turbulent statistics were also examined. The results showed that correlation coefficient between lateral velocities and vertical velocity show significant dependence on wind direction shear through change of lateral wind shear. Quadrant analysis shows increased outward interaction and reduced role of sweep motion for longitudinal momentum flux for the downslope flow. Multi-resolution analysis indicates that uw correlation shows peak at larger averaging time for the upslope flow than for the downslope flow, indicating that large eddy plays an active role in momentum transfer for the upslope flow. On the other hand, downslope flow shows larger velocity variances than other flows despite similar wind speed. These results suggest that non-flatness of terrain significantly influences on canopy-atmosphere exchange.     

一次大范围海效应暴雪的雷达反演风场分析

用EVAP(Extended Velocity Azimuth Processing)方法对2010年12月30日发生在山东半岛的一次海效应暴雪过程进行风场反演,以了解暴雪过程中雷达回波和低层风场的特征。得出以下结论:(1)烟台和威海暴雪发生时间不同步,降雪带有明显东移的过程,对应烟台强回波带逐渐向东移动,而威海回波位置少动。(2)雷达回波开始产生于渤海,减弱也始于渤海;强回波带的位置与风场的辐合区有很好的对应关系。(3)反演风场水平切变线的移动,会引起强回波带的波动;烟台北部切变线相对稳定,南部切变线西移,致使强回波带沿顺时针方向旋转;威海南部切变线位置相对稳定,北部切变线西移,引起强回波带沿逆时针方向旋转。(4)辐合切变线是由经过辽宁南下的东北风与山东半岛的西北风(西风)辐合构成;切变线受西风分量减弱的影响而发生移动。     

华南春季降水纬向非均匀分布及异常年大气环流特征分析

对1951—2007年华南地区18站春季（3—5月）降水进行EOF分析,发现华南春季降水的空间分布具有全区一致性、东西反位相、南北反位相及东北—西南反位相等特点。第二特征向量主要反映了华南春季降水的纬向非均匀分布特征,据此将华南春季降水型分为西涝东旱型和西旱东涝型,并利用NCEP再分析资料对春季降水的纬向分布异常年的大气环流背景特征进行了研究。结果发现：在西涝东旱年,华南西北部存在海平面气压场和高度场的正异常中心,有利于冷空气的南下,而该正异常中心的南部出现负异常,华南东部及其东部海面上呈现范围较大的气压场和高度场正异常,华南西部盛行东南风异常,华南东部存在东北风距平,风场和水汽输送场在华南西部表现为异常辐合,在华南东部表现为异常辐散,因此造成了华南西部降水的偏多和东部降水的偏少。同时,850 hPa涡度场、200 hPa散度场、850 hPa垂直速度场和1000 hPa温度场也均呈现出有利于华南西部降水增多和东部降水减少的环流形势。在西旱东涝年,情况基本相反。     

Nocturnal drainage flow on simple slopes

Observations of nocturnal slope flow have been made at two sites with quite different topography and vegetation. In both cases, continuous measurements of wind and temperature profiles were made from towers that extended through the depth of the katabatic flow. At the simpler site, which approximates a tilted plane, three towers were located at different distances down the slope to measure the development of slope flow with downslope distance.Slope flow depth, downslope wind speed, and temperature deficit are found to change with downslope distance at rates that are consistent with the predictions of Manins and Sawford's (1979) layer-averaged model of slope flow, while measured entrainment rates are found to be comparable to those predicted by Ellison and Turner's (1959) laboratory experiments. The depth of slope flow is found to be roughly 0.05 times the vertical drop from the top of the slope, a relationship that also follows from combining Manins and Sawford's model and Ellison and Turner's laboratory data. Analysis of the wind spectra and a simple numerical model suggest that the turbulent kinetic energy profiles in slope flow are dependent on the speed and direction of the ambient wind and can differ substantially from those found over flat terrain. At the more complex of the two measurement sites, the occurrence of slope flow was found to correlate well with a dimensionless number 5 that is a function of the ridge-top wind speed and of the strength and depth of the inversion and that is an estimate of the ratio of the buoyancy deficit to the external horizontal pressure gradient.Prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract DE-AC06-76RLO 1830     

北太平洋副热带海区的两支东向逆流

分析SODA同化资料(1950～1999年)所描述的北太平洋副热带海区表层一次表层的东向逆流的空间分布和季节变化特征.从气候平均场看,北太平洋副热带的东向流主要包括东、西两部分,其中,太平洋中部夏威夷岛西侧的东支逆流位置偏南,强度夏季最大,春季最弱.海表风应力的旋度异常产生的Ekman抽吸是东支逆流形成的主要原因.位于西太平洋的西支逆流位置偏北,春季一夏季强度较大.西支逆流的形成和季节变化可以由副热带模态水的辐合解释.     

南海台风Vongfong(2002)登陆前后内核结构和近海加强原因的数值模拟研究

利用6 km细网格区域的显式模拟结果分析了Vongfong(2002)的内核结构;对Vongfong近海加强的动力学机制进行了研究.结果表明:(1) 轴对称性结构中,Vongfong最大风速半径(RMW)在强盛期随高度递减.Vongfong在近海时,低层最强的流入在其移行的前方,而流出区在其后方.这些特征与大西洋飓风和西太平洋台风相反.(2) 动力场和热力场都有明显的不对称结构.在强盛期,对流西北强、东南弱;强对流云带与最大风速区的位置一致.在加强期,低层西冷东暖、中高层西暖东冷;到强盛期,低层和中高层都有明显的暖心结构.(3) 中纬度中上层冷低压系统和台风的相互作用是Vongfong近海加强的重要原因.①由于冷低压系统外围的冷空气从西北侧进入台风的中层,低层有暖湿空气配合,使得位势不稳定能量增加,对流发展.②因为冷低压中心的下沉气流正是二级环流的下沉支,冷低压南移填塞,台风近海加强.两个方面最终通过CISK(第二类条件不稳定)机制来实现.