A THREE-DIMENSIONAL ELASTIC NESTED-GRID MESO-(β-γ)SCALE ATMOSPHERIC MODEL——PART Ⅰ:MODEL DESCRIPTION

A three-dimensional elastic nonhydrostatic mesoscale(β-γ) model with nested-grid is presented.It uses a set of full equations in terrain-following coordinates as its basic dynamic frame,which is solved with a time-splitting algorithm for acoustic and gravity waves.The model physical parameterization includes a K-theory subgrid eddy mixing for cloud and free atmosphere,a bulk planetary boundary layer parameterization,and three types of sofisticated cloud microphysics schemes with double-parameters for hail-bearing clouds,warm clouds and snowing clouds respectively.The model is designed to be used flexibly for simulations of a variety of meso-and small-scale atmospheric processes,and can be improved as a regional and local operational NWP system in future.     

A GLOBAL ANNUALLY-AVERAGED CLIMATE MODEL WITH CXOUD, WATER VAPOR AND CO_2 FEEDBACKS

In consideration of the radiation transter, latent and sensiole neat exchange between oceans and atmosphere, a three-dimensional autonomous nonlinear ordinary differential equation is established by statistical parameterization method. The variables of the model are the mean ocean surface temperature Tx, mean atmospheric temperature To and atmospheric relative humidity f, and the feedbacks of clouds, water vapor and CO2 are involved. The steady state corresponding to the present-day climate can be obtained from this model. The analysis of parameter sensibility in the steady state indicates that clouds have considerable negative feedback effects and water vapor may affect the sign of CO2 feedback. The stability analysis of the steady state to small disturbance indicates that with increase of the positive feedback effect of clouds, the steady state goes through such a structural variance series as a stable node→a stable focal point→an unstable focal point→an unstable node, and when the steady state bec     

A Coupled Dynamical-Radiational Model of Stratocumulus

A model dealing with interactions between the air and low stratiform clouds is presented based on the mixed-layer model Lilly (1968) pioneered and on Deardorffs three dimensional numerical model results. Its main new aspects lie in 1) consideration of the natures of both the atmosphere and cloud; 2) a new entrainment velocity scheme with few arbitrary assumptions; 3) transition from one-mixed layer to two-mixed layer model; and 4) parameterization of radiation and precipitation calculations.The model results for radiation, moisture, and heat turbulent fluxes turn out to be in good agreement with those calculated or observed by Kawa (1988), Nicholls (1984), and Schmets et al. (1981) in California, the North Sea, and the North Atlantic, respectively.Basically, this paper furnishes the theoretical basis for a model to address questions concerning the time-evolution of thermodynamical profiles both in cloud and out of cloud. The applications of this model wil be in a separate paper.     

A coupled dynamical-radiational model of stratocumulus

A model dealing with interactions between the air and low stratiform clouds is presented based on the mixed-Layer model Lilly (1968) pioneered and on Deardorff’s three dimensional numerical model results. Its main new aspects lie in 1) consideration of the natures of both the atmosphere and cloud; 2) a new entrainment velocity scheme with few arbitrary assumptions; 3) transition from one-mixed layer to two-mixed layer model; and 4) parameterization of radiation and precipitation calculations.The model results for radiation, moisture, and heat turbulent fluxes turn out to be in good agreement with those calculated or observed by Kawa (1988). Nicholls (1984), and Schmets et al. (1981) in California, the North Sea, and the North Atlantic, respectively.Basically, this paper furnishes the theoretical basis for a model to address questions concerning the time-evolu-tion of thermodynamical profiles both in cloud and out of cloud. The applications of this model will be in a separate paper.     

Some Physical Aspects of Summer Monsoon Clouds-Comparison of Cloud Model Results with Observations

The physical characteristics of the summer monsoon clouds were investigated. The results of a simple cloud model were compared with the aircraft cloud physical observations collected during the summer monsoon seasons of 1973, 1974, 1976 and 1981 in the Deccan Plateau region.The model predicted profiles of cloud liquid water content (LWC) are in agreement with the observed profiles. There is reasonable agreement between the model predicted cloud vertical thickness and observed rainfall.The observed cloud-drop spectra were found to be narrow and the concentration of drops with diameter > 20um is either low or absent on many occasions. In such clouds the rain-formation cannot take place under natural atmospheric conditions due to the absence of collision-coalescence process. A comparison of the model predicted and observed rainfall suggested that the precipitation efficiency in cumulus clouds of small vertical thickness could be as low as 20 per cent.The clouds forming in the Deccan Plateau region during t     

Some physical aspects of summer monsoon clouds—comparison of cloud model results with observations

The physical characteristics of the summer monsoon clouds were investigated. The results of a simple cloud mod-el were compared with the aircraft cloud physical observations collected during the summer monsoon seasons of 1973,1974,1976 and 1981 in the Deccan Plateau region.The model predicted profiles of cloud liquid water content (LWC) are in agreement with the observed profiles. There is reasonable agreement between the model predicted cloud vertical thickness and observed rainfall.The observed cloud-drop spectra were found to be narrow and the concentration of drops with diameter >20μm is either low or absent on many occasions. In such clouds the rain-formation cannot take place under natural atmos-pheric conditions due to the absence of collision-coalescence process. A comparison of the model predicted and ob-served rainfall suggested that the precipitation efficiency in cumulus clouds of small vertical thickness could be as low as 20 per cent.The clouds forming in the Deccan Plateau region during the summer monsoon are, by and large, cumulus and strato-cumulus type. The vertical thickness of the cumulus clouds is in the range of 1.0-2.0 km. The LWC is found to be more in the region between 1.6-1.9 km A. S. L., which corresponds to the level at almost 3 / 4 th of the total verti-cal thickness of the cloud and thereafter the LWC sharply decreased. Nearly 98 per cent of the tops of the low clouds in the region are below freezing level and the most frequent range of occurrence of these cloud-tops is in the range of 2.0-3.0 km A. S. L.. The dominant physical mechanism of rain-formation in these summer monsoon clouds it the col-lision-coalescence process.     

A global annually-averaged climate model with cloud,water vapor and CO2 feedbacks

In consideration of the radiation transfer, latent and sensible heat exchange between oceans and at-mosphere, a three-dimensional autonomous nonlinear ordinary differential equation is established by statis-tical parameterization method. The variables of the model are the mean ocean surface temperature Ts, mean atmospheric temperature Ta and atmospheric relative humidity f, and the feedbacks of clouds, water vapor and CO2 are involved. The steady state corresponding to the present-day climate can be obtained from this model. The analysis of parameter sensibility in the steady state indicates that clouds have consid-erable negative feedback effects and water vapor may affect the sign of CO2 feedback. The stability analysis of the steady state to small disturbance indicates that with increase of the positive feedback effect of clouds, the steady state goes through such a structural variance series as a stable node→a stable focal point→an unstable focal point→an unstable node, and when the steady state becomes unstable it undergoes a subcritical Hopf bifurcation. When the steady state is at a focal point, the periodic oscillation solutions of damping or amplifying can be obtained with the period being about two years.     

THE LIMITATION OF CLOUD-BASE MASS FLUX IN CUMULUS PARAMETERIZATION AND ITS APPLICATION IN A HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL

A large area of unrealized precipitation is produced with the standard convective parameterization scheme in a high-resolution model, while subgrid-scale convection that cannot be explicitly resolved is omitted without convective parameterization. A modified version of the convection scheme with limited mass flux at cloud base is introduced into a south-China regional high-resolution model to alleviate these problems. A strong convection case and a weak convection case are selected to analyze the influence of limited cloud-base mass flux on precipitation forecast. The sensitivity of different limitation on mass flux at cloud base is also discussed. It is found that using instability energy closure for Simplified Arakawa- Schubert Scheme will produce better precipitation forecast than the primary closure based on quasi-equilibrium assumption. The influence of the convection scheme is dependent on the upper limit of mass flux at cloud base. The total rain amount is not so sensitive to the limitation of mass flux in the strong convection case as in the weak one. From the comparison of two different methods for limiting the cloud-base mass flux, it is found that shutting down the cumulus parameterization scheme completely when the cloud-base mass flux exceeds a given limitation is more suitable for the forecast of precipitation.     

Numerical Weather Prediction in China in the New Century ——Progress, Problems and Prospects

This paper summarizes the recent progress of numerical weather prediction(NWP)research since the last review was published.The new generation NWP system named GRAPES(the Global and Regional Assimila- tion and Prediction System),which consists of variational or sequential data assimilation and nonhydrostatic prediction model with options of configuration for either global or regional domains,is briefly introduced, with stress on their scientific design and preliminary results during pre-operational implementation.In ad- dition to the development of GRAPES,the achievements in new methodologies of data assimilation,new improvements of model physics such as parameterization of clouds and planetary boundary layer,mesoscale ensemble prediction system and numerical prediction of air quality are presented.The scientific issues which should be emphasized for the future are discussed finally.     

The Probability Density Function Related to Shallow Cumulus Entrainment Rate and Its Influencing Factors in a Large-Eddy Simulation

The process of entrainment-mixing between cumulus clouds and the ambient air is important for the development of cumulus clouds. Accurately obtaining the entrainment rate(λ) is particularly important for its parameterization within the overall cumulus parameterization scheme. In this study, an improved bulk-plume method is proposed by solving the equations of two conserved variables simultaneously to calculate λ of cumulus clouds in a large-eddy simulation. The results demonstrate that the impro...     

Development of 1km-Scale Operational Model in South China

To support short-range weather forecast, a high-resolution model (1km) is developed and technicallyupgraded in the South China Regional Center, including the improvement of the 3D reference scheme and predictor-corrector method for Semi-Implicit and Semi-Lagrangian (SISL) in model dynamical core, as well as the improvementof physical parameterization. Furthermore, the multi-process parallel I/O and parallel nudging techniques are developedand have facilitated rapid updating in the assimilation prediction system and fast-output post processing process. Theexperimental results show that the improved 3D reference scheme and upgraded physic schemes can effectively improvethe prediction accuracy and stability with a longer integration time step. The batch test shows that the precipitationforecast performance of 1-km model is significantly better than that of 3-km model. The 1-km model is in operation withrapidly updating cycle at 12-minute intervals, which can be applied to short-range forecast and nowcasting application.     

EXPERIMENT ON THE FORECAST OF CHARACTERISTIC QUANTITIES OF ATMOSPHERIC TURBULENCE BY MESOSCALE MODEL MM5

In nested nonhydrostatic mesoscale model MM5,the characteristic quantities of atmosphericturbulence,i.e.,the standard deviations of the turbulent fluctuated speeds for three directions inPBL are computed by Mellor-Yamada's level 2.5 closure scheme.The magnitudes and the verticalprofiles of these quantities computed from the model are closely connected with temperature andwind speed profiles as well as the type of the ground with a significant diurnal variation,and are inagreement with known magnitudes and regularities in different stratification conditions.Hence themethod in this paper is reasonable and convincible.Their horizontal distribution depends on thehorizontal distribution of the stratification.The method of predicted characteristic quantities ofturbulence from mesoscale model in this paper can be used in the problem of atmospheric diffusionand atmospheric environment.     

Influence of Clouds on UV Irradiance at Ground Level and Backscattered Exittance

The influence of various cloud parameters and the interactions with the ground albedo and the solar zenith angle have been studied by means of model simulations. The radiative transfer model suitable for a cloudy atmosphere as well as for a clear atmosphere has been developed on the basis of the Discrete Ordinate Method. This study leads to a general understanding for cloudy atmospheres: in the presence of a uniform cloud, the cloud scattering is dominant to molecular and aerosol scattering, and it is also wavelength-independent; the ratio of transmitted irradiance in a cloudy atmosphere to that in the background clear atmosphere is independent of cloud height and solar zenith angle. That’s to say, the radiation downwelling out of a cloud is quite isotropic; it decreases approximately exponentially with the cloud optical depth at a rate related to the ground albedo; the reflected irradiance at the top of the atmosphere is dependent on cloud optical depth as well as on solar zenith angle, but not on ground albedo for clouds of not very thin optical depth.     

A MODIFIED CUMULUS PARAMETERIZATION SCHEME AND ITS APPLICATION IN THE SIMULATIONS OF THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION CASES

According to the characteristics of organized cumulus convective precipitation in China, a cumulus parameterization scheme suitable for describing the organized convective precipitation in East Asia is presented and modified. The Kain–Fristch scheme is chosen as the scheme to be modified based on analyses and comparisons of simulated precipitation in East Asia by several commonly-used mesoscale parameterization schemes. A key dynamic parameter to dynamically control the cumulus parameterization is then proposed to improve the Kain–Fristch scheme. Numerical simulations of a typhoon case and a Mei-yu front rainfall case are carried out with the improved scheme, and the results show that the improved version performs better than the original in simulating the track and intensity of the typhoons, as well as the distribution of Mei-yu front precipitation.     

A NUMERICAL MODEL OF MIXED CONVECTIVESTRATIFORM CLOUD

A 2-D slab-symmetric model of mixed convective-stratiform cloud is developed bysuperimposing convective cloud-size field on the convergence field,in order to simulate and studythe mixed clouds consisting of stratiform cloud and convective cloud.A deep convective,anelasticand conservative system of equations with basic variables(V,θ,π')is solved by a new method tocalculate dynamic field.The water substance in the cloud is divided into 6 categories and themicrophysical processes are described in spectrum with two variable parameters and morereasonable particle number/size distributions.To compare with measured radar echo intensity andstructure,the model may calculate echo intensity of the model cloud observed by radar.     

AN IMPROVED LAND-SURFACE PROCESS MODEL AND ITS SIMULATION EXPERIMENT——PART I:LAND-SURFACE PROCESS MODEL AND ITS“OFF-LINE”TESTS AND PERFORMANCE ANALYSES

Based on the existing land-surface schemes and models,an improved Land-surface ProcessModel(LPM-ZD)has been developed.It has the following major characteristics:(1)Thecombination of physical equations and empirical analytical formulae are used to construct thegoverning equations of soil temperature and moisture.Higher resolution of model level andphysical equations are adopted for the upper soil layers,and for the lower soil layers,lowerresolution of model level is adopted and empirical analytical formulae are used.(2)In land surfacehydrological process,the sub-grid distribution of rainfall and its effects are taken into account.(3)A simple snow cover submodel has been used,which includes effects of snow cover on soilthermodynamics and hydrology,as well as albedo.By use of this model and three groups of point observation data,a series of“off-line”testshave been carried out.The simulation results indicate that land-surface process model has goodperformance and can well simulate diurnal and seasonal variation of land surface processes for manykinds of land surface covers(forest,grass,crops and desert)in different climate zone.The resultssimulated by the model are consistent with the observations.Later,by use of one group ofobservation data and the model,a series of sensitivity experiments have been done.It is shownthat the model is much sensitive to some parameters,such as initial soil moisture,vegetationphysical parameters as well as the proportion of the grid covered with rain.Therefore it is muchimportant for land-surface process model to define these parameters as accurately as possible.     

IMPACT OF CLOUD DROPLETS SPECTRAL UNCERTAINTY ON MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION

1 INTRODUCTION Cloud radiation is one of the most important and indefinite factors in atmospheric radiation. As shown in a comparative study by Cess et al.[1] with a climate model, differences can be very large in the outcome of varying schemes of cloud parameterization. It is therefore of great significance to have a relatively accurate scheme of cloud parameterization for the atmospheric radiative transfer process.     

A STUDY OF 1.5-ORDER CLOSURE TURBULENCE MODEL

Based on turbulence theory,a 1.5-order closure turbulence model is established.The model incorporating with theground surface energy budget equation is constructed by means of a vertical one-dimensional(1-D)40-levelgrid-mesh.The numerical results reveal the 24-h evolution of the clear planetary boundary layer comparing with theWangara boundary layer data of days 33—34.The model also takes into account some physical processes of radiativetransfer and baroclinicity,revealing some important characteristics observed in the boundary layer,especially for theevolution of the mixed layer and low-level jet.The calculated results are in good agreement with the observational data.On the other hand,we also run the high-resolution model of the planetary boundary layer in the Mesoscale Model Ver-sion 4(MM4)with the same physical processes and initial conditions.The results show that the high-resolution modelcan not reveal those important characteristics as the 1.5-order closure model did.In general,it is shown that the 1.5-or-der closure turbulence model based on turbulence theory is better in rationality and reality.     

Performance of CAMS-CSM in Simulating the Shortwave Cloud Radiative Effect over Global Stratus Cloud Regions: Baseline Evaluation and Sensitivity Test

The ability of climate models to correctly reproduce clouds and the radiative effects of clouds is vitally important in climate simulations and projections. In this study, simulations of the shortwave cloud radiative effect(SWCRE) using the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences Climate System Model(CAMS-CSM) are evaluated. The relationships between SWCRE and dynamic–thermodynamic regimes are examined to understand whether the model can simulate realistic processes that are responsible for the generation and maintenance of stratus clouds. Over eastern China, CAMS-CSM well simulates the SWCRE climatological state and stratus cloud distribution. The model captures the strong dependence of SWCRE on the dynamic conditions. Over the marine boundary layer regions, the simulated SWCRE magnitude is weaker than that in the observations due to the lack of low-level stratus clouds in the model. The model fails to simulate the close relationship between SWCRE and local stability over these regions. A sensitivity numerical experiment using a specifically designed parameterization scheme for the stratocumulus cloud cover confirms this assertion. Parameterization schemes that directly depict the relationship between the stratus cloud amount and stability are beneficial for improving the model performance.     

RADIATIVE AND MICROPHYSICAL EFFECTS OF ICE CLOUDS ON A TORRENTIAL RAINFALL EVENT OVER HUNAN, CHINA

The radiative and microphysical effects of ice clouds on a torrential rainfall event over Hunan,China in June 2004 are investigated by analyzing the sensitivity of cloud-resolving model simulations.The model is initialized by zonally-uniform vertical velocity,zonal wind,horizontal temperature and vapor advection from National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP) /National Center for Atmospheric Research(NCAR) reanalysis data.The exclusion of radiative effects of ice clouds increases model domain mean surface rain rates through the increase in the mean net condensation associated with the increase in the mean radiative cooling during the onset phase and the increases in the mean net condensation and the mean hydrometeor loss during the mature phase.The decrease in the mean rain rate corresponds to the decreased mean net condensation and associated mean latent heat release as the enhanced mean radiative cooling by the removal of radiative effects of ice clouds cools the mean local atmosphere during the decay phase.The removal of microphysical effects of ice clouds decreases the mean rain rates through the decrease in the mean net condensation during the onset phase,while the evolution of mean net condensation and the mean hydrometeor changes from decrease to increase during the mature phase.The reduction in the mean rain rate is primarily associated with the mean hydrometeor change in the absence of microphysical effects of ice clouds during the decay phase.