我国农业气象业务体系的形成、完善和发展

该文总结了我国农业气象业务的发展。我国农业气象业务体系包括基础业务和业务系统两部分。40年来，农业气象业务体系的发展可分为两个阶段。第一阶段是50年代中期至60年代初业务发展的初级阶段，基础业务全面起步；第二阶段是80年代以来业务的发展阶段，基础业务和业务系统都得到发展，形成完善的业务体系。国家级农业气象业务在整个农业气象业务体系中起着十分重要的作用。     

风云二号气象卫星双星共轨技术研究与应用

卫星空间位置部署调整过程中,新旧卫星业务的切换期间,卫星观测业务服务的暂停是不可避免的。随着气象卫星应用范围的扩大和服务需求的增多,卫星布局调整过程中保证业务服务不中断、业务质量不降低成为卫星业务管理的迫切需求。根据风云二号卫星和地面应用系统的业务体系和技术特点,研究了双星共轨工作的技术条件和业务影响,提出利用双星共轨技术实现新旧卫星更替时业务无缝切换的方案。采用双星共轨技术和业务无缝切换方法实现了风云二号卫星D、E、F、G的业务布局调整,达到了卫星业务不中断、业务质量不降低的目标。     

探讨科研与业务的结合促进开放式研究型业务建设

本文应用科学技术哲学原理,结合当前气象科研与业务工作实际,从分析科研与业务的基本特征出发,探讨了气象研究型业务的基本属性和建设气象研究型业务的可能性,提出了建设气象研究型业务的方式、途径和几点思路。     

上海一体化气象业务平台质量管理体系 建设及思考

正上海作为全国率先实现气象现代化试点单位,建立了以一体化气象业务平台为核心的现代气象业务体系。为了提高一体化气象业务平台的运行和管理效率,防控业务风险,借鉴国际质量管理体系先进理念,开展了针对一体化气象业务平     

关于淄博市县预报业务布局的分析与探讨

文章对淄博市预报业务人员队伍现状和业务布局进行了调查,对市气象台指导预报和区县局的订正预报进行了对比分析,对当前天气预报业务布局存在的问题进行了探讨,提出了适应现代天气业务发展的市县预报业务布局和流程,为实现省、市、县天气预报业务集约化发展提供了参考依据。     

我国天气预报业务发展思路

“我国天气预报业务发展思路”一文,用翔实的史料展示了十一届三中全会以来二十年我国天气预报业务蓬勃发展的过程和趋势,阐述世界天气预报业务发展的动态和方向,指出了２０１０年以前我国的天气预报业务发展的目标和主要任务。更为重要的是作者对天气预报业务技术体制改革从天气预报业务分工、作业方式和业务流程等方面进行的思考,是对我省天气预报业务步入一个崭新阶段的指南和具体指导。     

地面气象观测业务调整后如何提高业务质量

2012年4月1日起,陕西省100个国家级地面气象站完成了地面气象观测业务调整,按照新的业务技术规定开始运行。调整后台站的观测任务、业务流程等发生了较大变化,同时,业务考核办法也相应进行了修订,工作重心转向数据质量控制。本文就业务调整后如何提高业务质量进行分析。     

县级气象综合业务工作平台本地化

根据县级气象综合业务工作平台建设的需求,以县级气象综合业务工作平台为基础,从县级气象业务工作实际出发,利用Visual Basic 6.0程序语言编程,研制出辽宁省县级气象综合业务工作平台本地化软件,并投入县级气象综合业务应用。经业务运行表明,软件的开发和使用,达到了实时业务系统高效运行的目的,使县级气象业务向集约化方向发展。     

我国农业气象业务的现状、问题及发展趋势

概述了国内农业气象业务的发展和现状,指出目前我国农业气象业务存在的主要问题,并根据现代农业经济发展需求,分析了未来10年我国农业气象业务发展趋势和现代农业气象业务建设的主要任务。经过40多年的发展建设,目前我国农业气象业务建设和服务工作都取得了可喜的进展,但还存在监测基础落后、服务面不广、产品科技含量不足等现实问题;今后应加强现代农业气象业务体系建设,重点是拓展服务领域,加强基础建设和系统开发,加强与决策和生态等相关业务的融合;服务业务要向多元化和精细化发展,提升服务业务能力。     

气候业务系统运行监控平台设计与实现

为满足国家气候中心各业务系统一体化、精细化监控的需求,设计和实现了气候业务系统运行监控平台。该平台多维度展示了各业务系统的资料及产品完整性、数据库状态、关键进程、数据访问、服务器基础资源等方面的监控结果,并具备故障告警、系统管理、数据推送及展示等功能。本文介绍了平台的运行架构、主要功能,并对关键技术进行了详细阐述。业务实践证明,该平台能够帮助业务值班人员及时、快速、全面掌握各业务系统状态,提高了运维效率,有利于推动气候业务一体化、集约化发展。     

ANALYSIS OF “BIMODAL PATTERN” STORM ACTIVITY CHARACTERISTICS OF THE BAY OF BENGAL

Storms that occur at the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are of a bimodal pattern, which is different from that of the other sea areas. By using the NCEP, SST and JTWC data, the causes of the bimodal pattern storm activity of the BoB are diagnosed and analyzed in this paper. The result shows that the seasonal variation of general atmosphere circulation in East Asia has a regulating and controlling impact on the BoB storm activity, and the “bimodal period” of the storm activity corresponds exactly to the seasonal conversion period of atmospheric circulation. The minor wind speed of shear spring and autumn contributed to the storm, which was a crucial factor for the generation and occurrence of the “bimodal pattern” storm activity in the BoB. The analysis on sea surface temperature (SST) shows that the SSTs of all the year around in the BoB area meet the conditions required for the generation of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, the SSTs in the central area of the bay are higher than that of the surrounding areas in spring and autumn, which facilitates the occurrence of a “two-peak” storm activity pattern. The genesis potential index (GPI) quantifies and reflects the environmental conditions for the generation of the BoB storms. For GPI, the intense low-level vortex disturbance in the troposphere and high-humidity atmosphere are the sufficient conditions for storms, while large maximum wind velocity of the ground vortex radius and small vertical wind shear are the necessary conditions of storms.     

Field Experimental Investigations on the Fe(II)- and Fe(III)-Content in Cloudwater Samples

The Fe(II)/Fe(III)-partition in cloudwater samples collected during two field campaigns is evaluated. It turned out that the simultaneous occurrence of complexing and reducing substances in the atmosphere and the cloud processing increase the solubility of iron compounds present in aerosol particles. A correlation between the concentration of iron(II) in the liquid phase and the intensity of the solar irradiation was observed for most of the cloudwater samples. This could be due to the fact that both the photochemical reduction of the iron(III) complexes and the photochemical reductive dissolution of iron(III)(hydr)oxides are depending on the pH-value. Iron(II) seems to be oxidised back to iron(III) preferably by hydrogen peroxide during the night. Positive correlations were received e.g. between the concentration of dissolved iron and the concentration of oxalate and between the percentage of iron(III) and the concentration of hydrogen peroxide. A negative correlation was found e.g. between the concentration of dissolved iron and the pH-value. The uncertainty of the whole process of sampling and analysis was investigated and the conformity of the results was satisfying considering the sometimes difficult conditions during a field campaign.     

How the “Best” Models Project the Future Precipitation Change in China

Projected changes in summer precipitation characteristics in China during the 21st century are assessed using the monthly precipitation outputs of the ensemble of three “best” models under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B, A2, and B1 scenarios. The excellent reproducibility of the models both in spatial and temporal patterns for the precipitation in China makes the projected summer precipitation change more believable for the future 100 years. All the three scenarios experiments indicate a consistent enhancement of summer precipitation in China in the 21st century. However, the projected summer precipitation in China demonstrates large variability between sub-regions. The projected increase in precipitation in South China is significant and persistent, as well as in North China. Meanwhile, in the early period of the 21st century, the region of Northeast China is projected to be much drier than the present. But, this situation changes and the precipitation intensifies later, with a precipitation anomaly increase of 12.4%–20.4% at the end of the 21st century. The region of the Xinjiang Province probably undergoes a drying trend in the future 100 years, and is projected to decrease by 1.7%–3.6% at the end of the 21st century. There is no significant long-term change of the projected summer precipitation in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley. A high level of agreement of the ensemble of the regional precipitation change in some parts of China is found across scenarios but smaller changes are projected for the B1 scenario and slightly larger changes for the A2 scenario.     

Role of the 10–20-Day Oscillation in Sustained Rainstorms over Hainan,China in October 2010

Hainan, an island province of China in the northern South China Sea, experienced two sustained rainstorms in October2010, which were the most severe autumn rainstorms of the past 60 years. From August to October 2010, the most dominant signal of Hainan rainfall was the 10–20-day oscillation. This paper examines the roles of the 10–20-day oscillation in the convective activity and atmospheric circulation during the rainstorms of October 2010 over Hainan. During both rainstorms,Hainan was near the center of convective activity and under the influence of a lower-troposphere cyclonic circulation. The convective center was initiated in the west-central tropical Indian Ocean several days prior to the rainstorm in Hainan. The convective center first propagated eastward to the maritime continent, accompanied by the cyclonic circulation, and then moved northward to the northern South China Sea and South China, causing the rainstorms over Hainan. In addition, the westward propagation of convection from the tropical western Pacific to the southern South China Sea, as well as the propagation farther northward, intensified the convective activity over the northern South China Sea and South China during the first rainstorm.     

The effects of the Arctic haze as determined from airborne radiometric measurements during AGASP II

The interaction of the Aretic winter aerosol (Arctic haze) with solar radiation produces changes in the radiation field that result in the enhancement of scattering and absorption processes which alter the energy balance and solar energy distribution in the Arctic atmosphere-surface system. During the second Arctic Gas and Aerosols Sampling Project (AGASP II) field experiment, we measured radiation parameters using the NOAA WP-3D research aircraft as a platform. State-of-the-art instrumentation was used to measure in situ the absorption of solar radiation by the Arctic atmosphere during severe haze events. Simultaneously with the absorption measurements, we determined optical depths, and total, direct, and scattered radiation fields. All optical measurements were made at spectral bands centered at 412, 500, 675, and 778 nm and with a bandpass of 10 nm. With this selection of spectral regions we concentrated on the measurement of the radiative effects of the aerosol excluding most of the contributions by the gaseous components of the atmosphere. An additional measurement performed during these experiments was the determination of total solar spectrum fluxes. The experimentally determined parameters were used to define an aerosol model that was employed to deduce the absorption by the aerosols over the full solar spectrum and to calculate atmospheric heating rate profiles. The analyses summarized above allowed us to deduce the magnitude of the change in some important parameters. For example, we found changes in instantaneous heating rate of up to about 0.6 K/day. Besides the increased absorption (30 to 40%) and scattering of radiation by the atmosphere, the haze reduces the surface absorption of solar energy by 6 to 10% and the effective planetary albedo over ice surfaces by 3 to 6%. The vertical distribution of the absorbing aerosol is inferred from the flux measurements. Values for the specific absorption of carbon are found to be around 6 m²/g for externally mixed aerosol and about 11.7 m²/g for internally mixed aerosol. A complete study of the radiative effects of the Arctic haze should include infrared measurements and calculations as well as physics of the ice, snow, and water surfaces.     

欧亚冬季温带反气旋活动的气候特征

利用NCEP/NCAR再分析数据,通过判定和追踪温带反气旋的客观方法统计分析了1948-2013年欧亚地区冬季温带反气旋的生成、消亡、移动、生命史、强度等气候特征。结果表明,反气旋的主要源地位于蒙古高原、伊朗及其周边地区、地中海沿岸、中西伯利亚、波罗的海西北部、俄罗斯东北部等地,其中,蒙古高原和伊朗等地也是强反气旋最主要的源地。反气旋活动的大值分布区和反气旋生成的大值中心分布十分相似,主要活跃区对应低空平均经向温度梯度大值区和高空脊前。除源于蒙古高原和西伯利亚东北部的强、弱反气旋的移动距离差别不明显外,其他地区的反气旋移动距离与强度有密切关系。持续1-2 d的反气旋占总数的44.2%,而只有3.2%的反气旋生命史超过一周,且强反气旋比弱反气旋更易持续较长时间。      

Model simulations of rainout and washout from a warm stratiform cloud

A one-dimensional, time-dependent cloud model with parameterized microphysics is used to investigate the processes which control the rainout and washout of soluble gases from warm, precipitating stratiform clouds. Calculations are presented simulating the distributions of soluble species within and below the cloud layer and in the precipitating raindrops as a function of time and species' solubility. Our calculations indicate that for species with low solubility, wet removal processes are relatively slow and thus do not significantly affect the species' gas-phase abundance. As a result, the removal of low-solubility species by rainout and washout is controlled by thermodynamic processes with the concentration of the species in cloud and rainwater largely determined by the species' solubility. For highly soluble species on the other hand, dissolution into cloud droplets and removal in rain is quite rapid and the abundance of highly soluble species within and below the cloud falls rapidly as soon as the precipitation begins. Because of this rapid decrease in concentration, we find that for highly soluble species: concentrations in cloud droplets near the cloud base can exceed that of raindrops by factors of 2 to 10; washout can dominate over rainout as a removal mechanism; and that, after an extended period of rainfall, the rate of removal becomes independent of the microphysical properties and rainfall rate of the cloud and is controlled by the rate of transport of material into the precipitating column by horizontal advection.     

Geochemical behaviour of the Tunisian background aerosols in Sirocco wind circulations

This study examines spatial and time evolutions of the principal constituents of the Tunisian background aerosols under Sirocco wind circulations. Aerosols coming from the Sahara Desert were found to be loaded with particulate matter, especially silicon. The aerosols were shown to have varying geochemical behaviour along the ``South-North" displacement of the Saharan plumes, depending on the wind flow characteristics, geomorphologic features and the nature of soils swept by the wind. In the south and the center part of the country, the transfer of aerosol constituents to the soil (by gravity and/or impaction) was probably predominated by localized enrichment phenomena. The latter are reinforced by the effect of turbulent winds over bare soils, wind wakes and probably selective disintegration, especially in the vicinity of the geomorphologic features of central Tunisia. These relatively high features, extending over important distances, appear to be of paramount importance for the phenomena of redistribution of aerosol constituents even during periods without Sirocco wind circulations. In the northern section of the country, aerosol constituent concentrations dropped to almost 50%, in spite of the abundance of localized turbulent winds. This may be explained by the effect of forests and the relatively dense vegetation cover, which clearly reinforces the transfer phenomena to the soil and the attenuate of dust entrainment.     

淮河流域水文极值预测模型研究

为探索气候变化影响下水文极值的非平稳性和预测方法,建立了水文极值非平稳广义极值（GEV）分布的统计预测模型。利用1952-2010年淮河上游流域累计面雨量和流量年最大值资料、同期500 hPa环流特征量资料以及17个CMIP5模式对环流特征量的模拟结果,筛选出对水文极值影响显著的年平均北半球极涡强度指数作为GEV分布参数的预测因子。分析了在RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下2006-2050年淮河上游流域水文极值对气候变化的响应。结果表明,10年以下与10年以上重现期的水文极值在非平稳过程中呈现前者下降而后者上升的相反变化趋势;多模型预测的集合平均在未来情景中均呈现上升趋势,情景排放量越大增幅越大,重现期越长增幅也越大。与极值的常态相比,极值的极端态更易受气候变化影响。     

An assessment of the predictability of the East Asian Subtropical Westerly Jet based on TIGGE data

The predictability of the position, spatial coverage and intensity of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet(EASWJ) in the summers of 2010 to 2012 was examined for ensemble prediction systems(EPSs) from four representative TIGGE centers,including the ECMWF, the NCEP, the CMA, and the JMA. Results showed that each EPS predicted all EASWJ properties well, while the levels of skill of all EPSs declined as the lead time extended. Overall, improvements from the control to the ensemble mean forecasts for predicting the EASWJ were apparent. For the deterministic forecasts of all EPSs, the prediction of the average axis was better than the prediction of the spatial coverage and intensity of the EASWJ. ECMWF performed best, with a lead of approximately 0.5–1 day in predictability over the second-best EPS for all EASWJ properties throughout the forecast range. For probabilistic forecasts, differences in skills among the different EPSs were more evident in the earlier part of the forecast for the EASWJ axis and spatial coverage, while they departed obviously throughout the forecast range for the intensity. ECMWF led JMA by about 0.5–1 day for the EASWJ axis, and by about 1–2 days for the spatial coverage and intensity at almost all lead times. The largest lead of ECMWF over the relatively worse EPSs, such as NCEP and CMA, was approximately 3–4 days for all EASWJ properties. In summary, ECMWF showed the highest level of skill for predicting the EASWJ, followed by JMA.