中国区域性大气加权平均温度线性模型精度评估

以欧洲中期天气预报中心的再分析资料ERA5为参考数据,评估由探空数据建立的中国区域88个单站大气加权平均温度（T_m）与地表气温（T_s）线性关系模型的精度.各站T_m-T_s线性模型计算的T_m（计算值）与ERA5 气压层数据积分所得的T_m（参考值）间偏差均方根值（RMSE）为1.8~5.5 K.不同站模型计算值与参考值间存在-1.22~4.54 K 的系统性偏差,且绝大多数测站（82个站）系统性偏差为正值,即模型计算值总体上大于参考值.补偿各站系统性偏差后,模型计算值与参考值间RMSE降为1.5~3.5 K.与使用中国区域统一模型相比,使用单站模型平均能提高0.6 K的T_m计算精度,尤其在中国西部、西北和内蒙区域,精度提高可达1~3.9 K.对所有测站模型计算值和参考值间偏差时序进行分析,发现超过半数测站的偏差存在明显季节性变化.     

基于CMAQ-MCM模型的长三角地区夏季臭氧和大气氧化性影响的研究

传统的空气质量模型多使用简化的光化学反应机制来模拟大气污染物的形成.这些机制主要基于烟雾箱实验拟合的反应速率和产物来模拟二次产物（如臭氧（O₃））前体物的氧化反应,具有一定的不确定性,导致模拟结果产生偏差.针对该问题,本研究将详细的大气化学机理（MCMv3.3.1）与美国国家环境保护局研制的第三代空气质量预报和评估系统CMAQ相结合（CMAQ-MCM）,模拟研究长三角地区2015年8月27—9月5日臭氧高发时段的空气质量.CMAQ-MCM模型可以较好地模拟长三角地区6个代表城市O₃和其前体物随时间的变化趋势.对模拟的O₃日最大8 h平均浓度的统计分析表明,徐州表现最好（标准平均误差=-0.15,标准平均偏差=0.23）.在长三角地区,居民源对挥发性有机物（VOCs）的贡献最大,占39.08%,其次是交通运输（33.25%）和工业（25.56%）.能源对总VOCs的贡献最小,约为2.11%.对活性氧化氮（NO_y）的分析表明,其主要组分是NO_x（80%）,其次是硝酸（HNO₃）（<10%）.O₃的空间分布与NO_y和NO_x非常相似.HCHO等其他氧化产物的分布与NO_x相似,这很可能是由于在高NO_x条件下VOCs氧化产生的产物.甲基乙烯基酮（MVK）和甲基丙烯醛（MACR）的空间分布与自然源VOCs （BVOCs）非常相似,表明长三角地区MVK和MACR主要由BVOCs氧化生成.长三角地区受到人为源和自然源排放相互作用的影响.     

京津冀地区GNSS ZTD时序分析及对厄尔尼诺事件的响应

京津冀地区夏季暴雨频发,水汽是影响暴雨形成的关键要素之一.本文利用中国大陆构造环境监测网络（CMONOC）京津冀地区GNSS（全球导航卫星系统）观测资料,开展GNSS天顶对流层总延迟（ZTD）时序分析及对厄尔尼诺事件的响应研究.利用快速傅里叶变换与小波变换方法从频域和时域开展GNSS ZTD时序分析,并对GNSS ZTD不同周期时序与东部型指数（I_EP）、中部型指数（I_CP）进行比较,分析I_EP、I_CP对GNSS ZTD周期变化的影响.研究发现：GNSS ZTD异常时段与厄尔尼诺事件存在对应关系.东部型指数（I_EP）与GNSS ZTD呈正相关;中部型指数（I_CP）与GNSS ZTD呈显著负相关.在东部型厄尔尼诺事件的影响下,GNSS ZTD的季节性周期增大,月周期和半月周期减小;在中部型厄尔尼诺事件的影响下,GNSS ZTD的季节性周期、月周期、半月周期都减小.研究结果可为掌握区域GNSS ZTD预测变化规律提供参考,并为利用水汽感知厄尔尼诺事件提供可行性基础.     

具有异步控制器的离散马尔可夫跳变Lur'e系统的稳定性和l2增益性能分析

本文研究了一类具有异步控制器的离散马尔可夫Lur''e跳变系统的稳定性及l₂增益性能.通过引入隐马尔可夫模型（HHM）来描述所设计的控制器和原始系统之间出现的异步现象.利用线性矩阵不等式（LMI）方法分析了闭环系统的稳定性和l₂增益性能.然后提出了一个充分条件使得闭环系统随机稳定,并使得从扰动到系统输出的l₂增益达到最小.同时,通过求解给定条件来设计一个由线性状态反馈和扇形有界非线性输出反馈组成的异步控制器.最后,给出了一个数值仿真例子来验证所提方法的有效性.     

UV-B辐射增强对不同品种花生结荚期生理特性日变化的影响

以3个花生品种（开农49号、64号和69号）为材料,通过大田模拟试验,研究UV-B辐射增强对花生结荚期叶片的净光合速率（P_n）、气孔导度（G_s）、胞间CO₂浓度（C_i）、蒸腾速率（T_r）和水分利用效率（E_wu）日变化的影响,为筛选高产、抗旱、抗UV-B辐射花生品种提供依据.UV-B辐射设2个水平即自然光（CK,1.5 kJ·m^-2）和UV-B增强20%（T,1.8 kJ·m^-2）.结果表明,UV-B辐射增强明显抑制花生的光合作用和蒸腾作用,与对照相比,UV-B增强条件下,开农49号、64号和69号P_n日均值分别降低19.4%、27.8%、24.7%;G_s日均值降低26.7%、42.9%、28.6%;C_i日均值降低27.2%、20.4%、23.1%;T_r日均值降低17.8%、23.3%、25.1%;E_wu日均值降低16.6%、23.2%、23.9%.UV-B辐射增强对3个品种生长都具有抑制效应,但品种间存在一定的敏感性差异,其中开农49号最不敏感,因此,开农49号在抗UV-B辐射方面比其他2个品种具有更大的优势.     

CRA40在中国地区GNSS水汽反演中的适用性评估与分析

基于中国气象局发布的CRA40气象再分析资料,计算地基GNSS水汽反演中涉及气压、气温、大气水汽加权平均温度（T_m）、天顶对流层总延迟（ZTD）等关键参数,并分别以地面气象站（气压、气温）、无线电探空测站（T_m）以及地基GNSS测站（ZTD）为参考,对这些参数在中国地区的精度和可靠性开展了系统的评估.计算结果与欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECWMF）最新一代ERA5产品的计算结果进行比较,结果表明：基于CRA40计算的测站处气压和ZTD的平均RMS（均方根）分别为0.91 hPa和13.5 mm,略差于ERA5;计算的测站处气温和T_m平均RMS分别为2.67 K和1.47 K,略优于ERA5.三类参数（气压、气温、ZTD）的日变化总体趋势与实际观测符合较好.     

欺骗攻击环境下带有传感器故障的大规模电网分布式状态估计

本文研究了欺骗攻击环境下带有传感器故障的大规模电网分布式状态估计问题.通过引入拓扑关系来描述分布式传感器节点之间的相互关系,使用随机Bernoulli序列描述欺骗攻击模型及其随机特性.基于Lyapunov方法证明了带有传感器故障的系统在遭受欺骗攻击环境下的均方稳定及H_∞稳定的充分条件,并基于LMI设计了满足H_∞性能指标的分布式状态估计器.最后通过数值仿真验证了所设计估计器的有效性.     

湖北省PM2.5质量浓度遥感估算与时空分布特征

针对地面站点稀疏不足以提供高空间覆盖、高空间分辨率的面域PM_2.5数据支撑区域细颗粒物污染防治的问题,以湖北地区2015-2017年的MODIS卫星遥感气溶胶光学厚度（AOD）产品数据为主预测量,结合温度、湿度、风速、压强等气象参数和植被指数数据等辅助预测量,建立了AOD-PM_2.5关系逐日变化的线性混合效应（LME）模型,用于估算湖北地区的PM_2.5浓度水平.利用十折交叉验证方法进行了模型精度评估.结果表明：1）2015-2017年的交叉验证R²分别达到0.89、0.85和0.88,利用MODIS AOD数据反演近地面PM_2.5质量浓度的线性混合效应模型能很好地用于区域细颗粒物遥感监测;2）省内PM_2.5质量浓度空间差异显著,鄂东、鄂南和鄂北高,鄂西北和鄂东南低;3）全省PM_2.5估算时空数据年均值呈下降态势,分别为65.6±39.8、57.1±34.1和48.1±28.3 μg/m³,各市除随州、咸宁2016、2017年年均值持平外,都呈下降趋势.     

顶点Pk覆盖问题的研究综述

顶点覆盖问题是经典的NP完全问题,在排序、计算机网络等现实生活中有许多的应用.近几年来,许多研究者开始探究它的推广形式——顶点P_k覆盖（VCP_k）问题,即寻找一个顶点子集,从拓扑结构图中删除后使得剩下的顶点导出的子图不包含P_k路,其中P_k是指包含k个顶点的路.本文简单介绍了VCP_k问题的应用背景,归纳了它在近似算法、精确算法、参数化算法3个方面的主要研究进展,并分析了一些主要的方法和技巧.在此基础上,对VCP_k问题及其相关问题的研究前景进行了展望.     

马尔可夫切换的汽车悬架系统的事件触发H∞滤波

针对具有马尔可夫切换信道的两自由度（2-DOF） 四分之一汽车悬架系统,研究了事件触发 H_∞ 滤波问题.首先,信道切换由马尔可夫链控制;其次,考虑到事件触发的通信方案,由于有限的网络带宽,产生信号量化和随机丢包问题;然后,采用马尔可夫线性跳变系统模型来表示整个滤波网络系统.利用Lyapunov泛函和线性矩阵不等式方法将事件触发 H_∞ 滤波问题转化为凸优化问题,从而设计了切换信道相关的滤波器,使得滤波误差系统在均方意义上是指数稳定的并达到期望的性能水平.最后,通过仿真实例验证了所提出的设计方法的有效性.     

融合多模态特征的社会多媒体谣言检测技术研究

以微博为代表的社会媒体的蓬勃发展在加速信息交流的同时,也促使虚假谣言信息迅速在社会网络上传播,造成严重的后果.自动谣言检测问题受到了国内外学术界、产业界的广泛关注.围绕社会多媒体谣言检测这一问题,本文总结了融合多模态特征的谣言检测相关技术.首先从基本概念出发,阐述了谣言的定义和社会多媒体的特点,给出了社会多媒体谣言检测问题的定义.针对谣言检测面临的多模态特征抽取和模型构建两大难点,分别总结和归纳了各种类型的特征及其提取方法和不同的机器学习检测模型.这些特征和算法是检测谣言的基本手段,也是接下来研究的基础,可为进一步谣言检测的研究提供参考.     

A 35-GHz Polarimetric Doppler Radar and Its Application for Observing Clouds Associated with Typhoon Nuri

Millimeter-wavelength radar has proved to be an effective instrument for cloud observation and research. In this study, 8-mm-wavelength cloud radar (MMCR) with Doppler and polarization capabilities was used to investigate cloud dynamics in China for the first time. Its design, system specifications, calibration, and application in measuring clouds associated with typhoon are discussed in this article. The cloud radar measurements of radar reflectivity (Z), Doppler velocity (Vr), velocity spectrum width (Sw) and the depolar-ization ratio (LDR) at vertical incidence were used to analyze the microphysical and dynamic processes of the cloud system and precipitation associated with Typhoon Nuri, which occurred in southern China in August 2008. The results show the reflectivity observed using MMCR to be consistent with the echo height and the melting-layer location data obtained by the nearby China S-band new-generation weather radar (SA), but the Ka-band MMCR provided more detailed structural information about clouds and weak precipitation data than did the SA radar. The variation of radar reflectivity and LDR in vertical structure reveals the transformation of particle phase from ice to water. The vertical velocity and velocity spectrum width of MMCR observations indicate an updraft and strong turbulence in the stratiform cloud layer. MMCR provides a valuable new technology for meteorological research in China.     

Modelling of the nighttime nitrogen and sulfur chemistry in size resolved droplets of an orographic cloud

A chemistry module has been incorporated into a Lagrangian type model that computes the dynamics and microphysics of an orographical cloud formed in moist air flowing over the summit of Great Dun Fell (GDF) in England. The cloud droplets grow on a maritime aerosol which is assumed to be an external mixture of sea-salt particles and ammonium-sulfate particles. The dry particle radii are in the range 10 nm<r<1 µm. The gas-phase chemical reaction scheme considers reactions of nitrogen compounds that are important at night. The treatment of scavenging of gases into the aqueous phase in the model takes into account the different solubilities and accommodation coefficients. The chemistry in the aqueous phase focusses on the oxidation of S(IV) via different pathways.Sensitivity analyses have been performed to investigate deviations from gas-liquid equilibria according to Henry's law and also to study the influence of iron and of nitrogen compounds on the aqueous-phase oxidation of dissolved SO₂. When addressing these questions, special attention has been given to the dependence on the droplet size distribution and on the chemical composition of the cloud condensation nuclei on which the droplets have formed. It was found that the oxidation of S(IV) via a chain reaction of sulfur radicals can be important under conditions where H₂O₂ is low. However, major uncertainties remain with respect to the interaction of iron with the radical chain. It was shown that mixing of individual cloud droplets, which are not in equilibrium according to Henry's law, can result in a bulk sample in equilibrium with the ambient air. The dependence of the aqueous-phase concentrations on the size of the cloud droplets is discussed for iron, chloride and NO₃.     

Did Humankind Prevent a Holocene Glaciation?

Recently, W.F. Ruddiman (2003, Climatic Change, Vol. 61, pp. 261–293) suggested that the anthropocene, the geological epoch of significant anthropospheric interference with the natural Earth system, has started much earlier than previously thought (P. I. Crutzen and E. F. Stoermer, 2000, IGBP Newsletter, Vol. 429, pp. 623–628). Ruddiman proposed that due to human land use, atmospheric concentrations of CO₂ and CH₄ began to deviate from their natural declining trends some 8000 and 5000 years ago, respectively. Furthermore, Ruddiman concluded that greenhouse gas concentrations grew anomalously thereby preventing natural large-scale glaciation of northern North America that should have occurred some 4000–5000 years ago without human interference. Here we would like to comment on (a) natural changes in atmospheric CO₂ concentration during the Holocene and (b) on the possibility of a Holocene glacial inception. We substantiate our comments by modelling results which suggest that the last three interglacials are not a proper analogue for Holocene climate variations. In particular, we show that our model does not yield a glacial inception during the last several thousand years even if a declining trend in atmospheric CO₂ was assumed.     

On Homeostasis in Daisyworld

The steady state solution of the Daisyworld modelof Watson and Lovelock (1983) is examined in detail. Focus is on the two-daisy state, which exhibits homeostasis overa large range of solar luminosities. The analytical approach usedmakes clear the dependence of the steady state and the size of thedomain over which it exists on the various parameters of the system as well as the mechanism for its attractivity.It is shown that the self-regulatory effect of the biota is basedon a priori specifying a relation between the equilibrium effectivetemperature T ^eq _e and the equilibrium effective albedoA ^eq _e. This relation originates first, from the assumption that the local temperature contrast between the black and white daisies is given by the local albedo contrast, and second, from the requirement that the equilibrium expansion rates of the black and white daisies are equal.The regulation is found to work best when the local albedo contrast is large and when the system is capable of redistributing heatin an efficient manner. It is shown that the attractivity of the steady stateis due to the temperature-dependence of the expansion rate of thedaisies, i.e., the close-coupling between climate and the biota. Some aspects of the Daisymodel seem fairly realistic, such as the conditions for optimal temperature regulation. On the other hand, the basic assumptions of the modelgive rise to local temperatures (of the regions of black daisies, white daisies and uncovered ground) which are independent of the incoming radiation.This property of fixed local temperatures and the associatedheat transport mechanism itself do not seem to have parallels in the real Earth system.     

从时间序列中提取维数信息

作者介绍了分形和分维的概念、性质和意义，重点讨论了从一维序列中提取维数信息的，并给出了一些在天气了气候中的应用。     

Effects of a dynamic ocean on simulated climate sensitivity to greenhouse gases

The potential effects of a dynamic ocean on climate change are assessed by comparison of a simulation from 1880 into the future by the CSIRO (Mark 2) coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model with equilibrium results from a mixed-layer ocean (MLO) version of the model. At 2082, when the effective CO ₂ is tripled, the global warming in the coupled model is barely half the 3×CO ₂ MLO result, largely because of oceanic heat uptake, as diagnosed using an effective heat capacity. The effective ocean depth continues to increase during a further 1700 years with stabilized tripled CO ₂, by which time the mean ocean warming reaches the upper ocean value. Some reduction of the coupled model warming is due to the effective sensitivity (for 2×CO ₂), determined from the radiative response to the forcing, being persistently 0.2 K lower than the MLO model value. A regional energy and feedback analysis shows that this is largely due to an overall equatorward oceanic heat transport anomaly, which reduces the high-latitude warming in the coupled model. The global warming at 3800 is around 95% of the anticipated equilibrium value, which is matched by the result of a simple energy balance model for the approach to equilibrium. The geographical effect of the oceanic heat transport is confirmed using a mixed-layer model with perturbed oceanic heat convergence. The eastern equatorial Pacific warming is enhanced by over 1 K, and rainfall is perturbed in an ENSO-like pattern.     

Effects of stakeholder input on voluntary sustainability standards

Voluntary sustainability standards can be powerful tools for incentivizing sustainable production practices. Most standards rely on stakeholder input to gain legitimacy and set levels of achievement for businesses at an appropriate level. Yet, the effects of stakeholder input are contentious. Whereas some see stakeholder input leading to more stringent standards, others believe stakeholder input dilutes standards and renders them toothless. I intervene into this debate through an analysis of the effects of stakeholder comments on eight different voluntary sustainability standards. Drawing on an original dataset of 7945 stakeholder comments submitted during public comment periods between 2012 and 2019, I answer three interrelated research questions. First, who comments on sustainability standards and are some groups better represented than others? Second, what types of input do stakeholders provide? Third, which stakeholder comments result in observable changes to the content of sustainability standards? I find that industry groups are over-represented compared to other stakeholder groups. I also find that comments intended to weaken the stringency of sustainability standards are more likely to be implemented than comments intended to strengthen their stringency or other types of comments. A key implication is that stakeholder input is more likely to weaken or maintain the status quo of sustainability standards than strengthen them.     

GRAPES_MESO中时间步长和空间分辨率对于预报效果的影响

基于GRAPES区域中尺度数值预报系统(GRAPES_MESO),针对700 hPa、500 hPa和200 hPa的位势高度场H,温度场T,风场纬向分量U,经向分量V和地面降水场,在给定的模式物理过程下,分别考察了时间步长和空间分辨率对于模式预报效果的影响。研究结果表明,空间分辨率(0.3°×0.3°)相同时,各变量在不同层次的预报几乎都存在最优时间步长使得预报技巧最高,初步说明最优时间步长理论在复杂的偏微分方程组中的适用性。随后,将空间分辨率为0.3°×0.3°时最优时间步长(240 s)的预报结果与当前业务中(空间分辨率为0.15°×0.15°、时间步长为90 s)的预报结果进行比较,发现前者的变量H、T、U、V和地面降水场的预报技巧均高于后者,表明并不是空间分辨率越高预报效果越好。     

三明市雷电气候特征与雷电灾害易损度区划研究

通过对三明市市区及10个县（市）气象观测站1981-2013年雷电观测资料的统计分析,得出了三明市雷电气候特征与变化规律.采用2003-2012年雷电灾害数据,从雷电致灾因子、承灾体因素考虑,选取雷击密度N_g、雷电灾害频度P、经济损失模数D和生命受损模数L作为分析雷电灾害易损度指标参数,通过广泛调研和抽样调查问卷,确定各要素所占权重,计算出三明市区及所属10个县（市）雷电灾害易损性风险值,确定了雷电灾害易损度区划分级指标,绘制雷电灾害易损度区划图,完成了雷电灾害易损度区划研究.