黑龙江省50a来度日的时空分布特征

选用黑龙江省经过均一性检验的59个台站1961-2010年逐日最高、最低气温计算全省逐年热度日（HDD）、冷度日（CDD）,分析其趋势及年代际和空间分布特征。结果表明：50 a来HDD总体呈显著的下降趋势,CDD整体表现为显著上升趋势。HDD基本上呈现由北向南递减趋势,CDD与HDD呈相反的变化特征,二者纬向分布明显。HDD与CDD均与对应时段平均气温具有较高的相关性,HDD与冷季平均气温呈反位相变化,CDD同暖季平均气温呈同位相变化。随着气候变暖,冷季用于供暖的能源将减少,暖季制冷所需的能源消耗将不断增加。     

贺州地区热度日与冷度日的变化特征分析

通过度日指标分析了1957—2014年贺州地区热度日(HDD)、冷度日(CDD)的变化特征,并探讨了度日与平均气温的关系。结果表明,平均月HDD以1月最大,6—8月为0;平均月CDD以7月最大,1、12月为0。贺州地区在冷季取暖耗能的需求比在暖季降温耗能的需求大。年HDD呈下降趋势,且下降趋势在减慢;年CDD呈上升趋势,且上升趋势在加快。年HDD变化与冷季平均气温变化呈反位相,年CDD的变化与暖季平均气温变化呈正位相。年HDD与冷季平均气温、年CDD与暖季平均气温具有极强相关性,说明贺州地区制暖耗能正在减少,而制冷耗能在逐渐增多。     

枣庄地区热度日和冷度日的变化特征

利用枣庄1958—2006年49年逐日平均气温计算枣庄月、年的热度日（HDD）和冷度日（CDD）。通过统计分析发现：枣庄平均月热度日1月最大,10月最小;平均月冷度日7月最大,5月最小。HDD长期变化趋势呈下降趋势,趋势系数为-0．62,达到1％的板显著水平,其气候倾向率为-73．15度日／10a,反映枣庄冬季温度为上升趋势,冬季供暖的能源将可能减少;CDD呈上升趋势,趋势系数为0．21,不显著,其气候倾向率为12．58度日／10a,即反映枣庄夏季温度为缓慢上升趋势,夏季空调降温的能源将可能增加;枣庄HDD和CDD年际变化都存在突变现象,HDD的突变点发生在1988年,CDD突变点发生在1993年,与枣庄气温突变点接近;年平均HDD和CDD与年平均气温相关性较好;年代际HDD变化趋势与平均气温年代际变化呈反位相;年代际CDD与平均气温年代际变化具有同位相发展趋势。     

辽宁中部城市群度日的变化特征

利用1951—2006年辽宁中部城市群沈阳、抚顺、本溪、鞍山4城市逐日气温资料,分析各城市热度日HDD和冷度日CDD的变化规律,并探讨度日与平均气温及城市热岛强度等的关系。结果表明:辽宁中部城市群HDD和CDD最大值分别出现在1月和7月。4城市HDD年际变化均呈下降趋势;CDD年际变化沈阳和鞍山呈微弱的上升趋势,而抚顺和本溪呈微弱的下降趋势。自1950s始至21世纪的2006年,除抚顺外,其他各城市HDD年代际变化均表现为明显的下降趋势,而CDD年代际变化均表现为降—升—降的规律。年代HDD均值与年代平均气温呈反位相,而年代CDD均值与年代平均气温呈正位相,冬季HDD与城市热岛强度呈负相关。     

近57年广东地区度日分布及变化特征分析

利用1951—2007年广东省韶关、汕头、广州、湛江4个代表站逐日平均气温,计算了月平均、年平均热度日(HDD)和冷度日(CDD)。结果表明广东地区HDD集中在每年11月—次年3月,以1月最大,并具有明显的纬向特征;CDD集中在每年4—10月,以7月最大,纬向特征在7—8月最不明显。各地年HDD、CDD与年平均气温均有较高的相关性。各地HDD多年变化呈明显下降趋势,下降速率分布特点为南北低,中部和东部高;CDD多年变化呈上升趋势,上升速率分布特点与HDD相同。HDD与平均气温具有反位相变化趋势,随着气候增暖广东地区HDD将趋于减小,CDD将趋于显著增加,夏季用于制冷降温的能耗将增加。     

北京地区热度日和冷度日的变化特征

应用1951—2004年北京逐日平均温度制作北京月、年的热度日 (HDD) 和冷度日 (CDD)。其中平均月HDD以1月 (687.9度日) 最大, 多年平均的年值为2922.6度日, 多年变化呈明显的下降趋势, 下降率为-99.5度日/10 a。平均月CDD以7月 (259.2度日) 最大。CDD多年平均的年值为826.7度日, 多年变化呈上升趋势, 上升率为39.0度日/10 a。1971—2004年HDD月城郊差值 (北京站-密云站) 冬季较大, 最大值为-73.8度日 (12月)。月CDD的城郊差值比HDD的差值小, 最大差值在8月 (34.0度日)。年HDD和CDD与年平均气温具有较高的相关性。年际、年代际HDD与年际、年代际平均气温具有反位相变化趋势, 随着气候增暖, 北京地区HDD将趋于减小, 冬季用于供暖的能源将减少; CDD将趋于增加, 夏季用于制冷降温的能源将增加。     

呼和浩特市热度日和冷度日变化特征

利用1952—2006年呼和浩特市逐日平均温度统计了热度日(HDD)和冷度日(CDD)变化特征。表明,呼和浩特市HDD以1月最大(918度日),多年年均值为4527度日,55a间呈现比较明显的平稳降低态势,线性趋势率为-145.5度日/10a;CDD以7月最大(42度日);多年年均值为74度日,多年变化呈现波动上升的趋势,线性趋势率为16.5度日/10a。HDD和CDD的日数动态变化与二者多年变化趋势是一致的,分别呈现降低和上升的趋势。呼和浩特市理论供暖和制冷日数分别为271d和38d。     

阳泉地区热度日和冷度日变化

利用阳泉市地面气象观测站1955—2011年和平定县、盂县两县地面气象观测站1972—2011年逐日平均气温,计算阳泉市、平定县和盂县月、年的热度日(HDD)和冷度日(CDD),分析热度日和冷度日的时空变化特征,探讨度日与月、年平均气温的关系。     

中国近50a来度日变化的研究

采用中国1951—2006年的气象观测资料,在运用度日分析法分析全国、各省及省会城市近50 a的平均温度变化的基础上,系统分析全国的度日变化情况;研究了中国六大区省会城市热度日（Heating Degree-day,HDD）和冷度日（Cooling Degree-day,CDD）的变化情况;分析了典型城市北京、上海、广州CDD的上升趋势和上升率,并求得相关方程。结果表明,北京、上海、广州CDD的长期变化都呈上升趋势,上升率分别为11.7℃/（10 a）、10.4℃/（10 a）、25.1℃/（10 a）。     

1961-2010年气候变化对天津市采暖期和夏季空调期的影响

根据1961－2010年天津市逐日气象要素,包括平均温度、最高温度、最低温度、相对湿度以及风速,采用统计学方法分析了近50 a天津市的冷暖度日变化以及冬季采暖期和夏季空调期的气候变化特征,探讨了冷暖度日、舒适日数与区域气候变化之间的关系。结果表明：近50 a天津市冷暖度日具有相反的变化趋势,暖度日（HDD）显著下降、冷度日（CDD）显著上升,且暖度日的变化幅度大于冷度日,变化主要集中于80年代之后。冷暖度日与极端温度之间具有显著相关性。采暖期低温日数呈下降趋势、空调期高温日数呈上升趋势。采暖期冷不舒适日数呈显著下降趋势,夏季空调期热不舒适日数呈显著上升趋势,与同期平均气温之间存在显著性相关,且不舒适气候的随机性呈增多趋势。说明在气候变暖背景下,区域气候变化对天津市采暖期和夏季空调期具有重要影响。     

Changes in climate classification and extreme climate indices from a high-resolution future projection in Korea

We investigate the future changes in the climate zone and six extreme temperature indices in Korea, using the 20-km high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model (MRI-AGCM3.1S). The Trewartha and K?ppen climate classification schemes are applied, and four summer-based extreme temperature indices (i.e., summer days, tropical nights, growing degree days, and cooling degree days (CDD) and two winter-based indices (frost days and heating degree days (HDD) are analyzed. To represent significantly the change in threshold indices, the monthly mean bias is corrected in model. The model result reasonably captures the temporal and spatial distribution of the present-day extreme temperatures associated with topography. It was found that in the future climate, the area of the subtropical climate zone in Korea expands northward and increases by 21% under the Trewartha classification scheme and by 35% under the K?ppen classification scheme. The spatial change in extreme climate indices is significantly modulated by geographical characteristics in relation to land-ocean thermal inertia and topographical effects. The change is manifested more in coastal regions than in inland regions, except for that in summer days and HDD. Regions with higher indices in the present climate tend to reveal a larger increase in the future climate. The summer-based indices display an increasing trend, while the winter-based indices show a decreasing trend. The most significant increase is in tropical nights (+452%), whereas the most significant decrease is in HDD (?25%). As an important indicator of energy-saving applications, the changes in HDD and CDD are compared in terms of the frequency and intensity. The future changes in CDD reveal a higher frequency but a lower temperature than those in HDD. The more frequent changes in CDD may be due to a higher and less dispersed occurrence probability of extreme temperatures during the warm season. The greater increase in extreme temperature events during the summer season remains an important implication of projecting future changes in extreme climate events.     

北京市气温对电力负荷影响的计量经济分析

以温度派生变量度日指数为解释变量构建了气温与电力负荷的计量经济模型。模型证明了天气对电力负荷的季节性影响, 且影响显著。通过引入序列相关AR结构和解释变量的动态结构, 模型得到逐步优化, 调整的拟合优度达95%。为了检验模型的预测能力, 利用历史数据对其进行了评估, 评估结果表明模型有较好的中期电力负荷预测能力。该模型对电力企业电力调度、电力建设有较大的参考价值。     

Present and projected degree days in China from observation,reanalysis and simulations

Degree days are usually defined as the accumulated daily mean temperature varying with the base temperature, and are one of the most important indicators of climate changes. In this study, the present-day and projected changes of four degree days indices from daily mean surface air temperature output simulated by Max Planck Institute, Earth Systems Model of low resolution (MPI-ESM-LR) model are evaluated with the high resolution gridded-observation dataset and two modern reanalyses in China. During 1979–2005, the heating degree days (HDD) and the numbers of HDD (NHDD) have decreased for observation, reanalyses (ERA-Interim and NCEP/NCAR) and model simulations (historical and decadal experiments), consistent with the increasing cooling degree days (CDD) and the numbers of CDD (NCDD). These changes reflect the general warming in China during the past decades. In most cases, ERA-Interim is closer to observation than NCEP/NCAR and model simulations. There are discrepancies between observation, reanalyses and model simulations in the spatial patterns and regional means. The decadal hindcast/forecast simulation performance of MPI-ESM-LR produce warmer than the observed mean temperature in China during the entire period, and the hindcasts forecast a trend lower than the observed. Under different representative concentration pathway (RCP) emissions scenarios, HDD and NHDD show significant decreases, and CDD and NCDD consistently increase during 2006–2100 under RCP8.5, RCP4.5 and RCP2.6, especially before the mid-21 century. More pronounced changes occur under RCP8.5, which is associated with a high rate of radiative forcing. The 20th century runs reflect the sensitivity to the initial conditions, and the uncertainties in terms of the inter-ensemble are small, whereas the long-term trend is well represented with no differences among ensembles.     

气候变暖前后我国热度日和冷度日的特征分析

基于全国1960—2011年气象台站的逐日资料,运用度日分析法、Mann-Kendall检验法研究了气候变暖前后我国热度日(HDD)、冷度日(CDD)的变化情况。结果表明,我国北方及高原地区冬季气温在1987年前后发生突变,气候变暖后HDD有所下降;我国南方夏季气温在1997年前后发生突变,气候变暖后CDD有所上升。利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和环流指数资料进一步分析气候变暖前后的环流场特征,发现冬季AO指数与我国东北、华北、新疆西藏部分地区HDD具有显著的负相关关系,AO指数偏强(弱)时,强冷空气活动减少(增加),HDD减小(增大);夏季西太平洋副高面积指数与我国南方地区CDD具有显著的正相关关系,副高面积指数偏强(弱)时,晴热高温天气增加(减少),CDD增大(减小)。     

Variations and Trends in Turkish Seasonal Heating and Cooling Degree-Days

The potential effect of climate change on energy demand is important especially for the developing and non-oil-producing countries. Cooling and heating degree-day (CDD and HDD) concepts are among the most significant meteorological variables related to residential energy consumption. This paper presents the spatial and temporal characteristics of Turkish seasonal CDD and HDD in the context of climate change. CDD and HDD are defined objectively by truncation of the temperature series at any constant base temperature level. This leads to surpluses and deficits as deviations. The surpluses are instances for cooling and the deficits for heating. Depending on temperature fluctuations, the degree-day statistics at any location show local and seasonal variations. In this study, regional variations of seasonal HDD and CDD are mapped for Turkey and their relations to local topography and climatic features are examined with conclusive interpretations. The sequential version of Mann–Kendall rank statisticis applied to demonstrate any existence of possible non-linear trends in accumulated HDD and CDD over the seasons. Spatially coherent and statistically significant trends of HDD and CDD appear in some regions of Turkey. In general, the sign of the trends is inconsistent with General Circulation Models (GCM) predictions.     

近60a来洞庭湖区气温的变化特征

以洞庭湖区24个气象站1952-2010年的平均气温资料为基础,利用气候倾向率、Mann-Kendall突变检验法和小波分析等方法,分析了洞庭湖区的气温变化特征.结果表明:洞庭湖区年平均、冬季、春季和秋季气温均呈显著上升趋势,增温速率尤以冬季和春季为甚.除夏季外,年平均和其他各季气温在1990s,先后发生增温性突变.高温日数呈上升趋势,但显著性不明显,低温日数下降趋势非常显著.除夏季外,年平均和各季异常冷年,基本出现在1950s至1970s,异常暖年,均出现在1998年以后.除夏季外,各季气温均存在准9a周期.