Snowpack model estimates of the mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet and its changes over the twentyfirst century

The performance of a snow cover model in capturing the ablation on the Greenland ice sheet is evaluated. This model allows an explicit calculation of the formation of melt water, of the fraction of melt water which re-freezes, and of runoff in the ablation region. The input climate variables to the snowpack model come from two climate models. While the higher resolution general circulation model (ECHAM 4), is closest to observations in its estimate of accumulation, it fails to give accurate results in its predictions of runoff, primarily in the southern half of the ice sheet. The two-dimensional low-resolution climate model (MIT 2D LO) produces estimates of runoff from the Greenland ice sheet within the range of uncertainty of the Inter governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC1) 1995 estimates. Both models reproduce some of the characteristics of the extent of the wet snow zone observed with satellite remote sensing; the MIT model is closer to observations in terms of areal extent and intensity of the melting in the southern half of the ice-sheet in July and August while the ECHAM model reproduces melting in the northern half of the ice sheet well. Changes in runoff from Greenland and Antarctica are often cited as one of the major concerns linked to anthropogenic changes in climate. Because it is based on physical principles and relies on the surface energy balance as input, the snow cover model can respond to the current climatic forcing as well as to future changes in climate on the century time scale without the limitations inherent in empirical parametrizations. For a reference climate scenario similar to the IPCC's IS92a, the model projects that the Greenland ice sheet does not contribute significantly to changes in the level of the ocean over the twenty-first century. Increases in accumulation over the central portion of the ice sheet offset most of the increase in melting and runoff, which takes place along the margins of the ice sheet. The range of uncertainty in the predictions of sea-level rise is estimated by repeating the calculation with the MIT model for seven climate change scenarios. The range is –0.5 to 1.7 cm.     

Short‐term volume changes of the Greenland ice sheet in response to doubled CO2 conditions

This paper focuses on the rôle of accumulation and cloudiness changes in the response of the Greenland ice sheet to global warming. Changes in accumulation or cloudiness were often neglected, or coupled to temperature changes. We used model output on temperature, precipitation and cloudiness from a GCM (ECHAM4 T106). The GCM output was used to drive the Greenland model that exists of a vertically averaged ice flow model, coupled to a 1D surface energy balance model that calculates the ablation. Variables are temperature, accumulation and cloudiness. Sensitivity experiments with this model show that changes in accumulation are very important for the ice sheet mass balance, whereas cloudiness is of secondary importance. If the Greenland model is forced by the GCM output, the Greenland model is found to contribute 70% less to sea level rise after 70 years than is indicated by the results presented in the IPCC report. This large discrepancy is mainly due to the fact that the enhanced ablation is strongly compensated by increased accumulation. Comparing the result obtained here with changes in mass balance derived directly from the same general circulation model, indicates a 20% larger contribution to sea level. This increase is due to changes in ice flow, and a different method for the ablation calculation.     

An investigation of the small ice cap instability in the Southern Hemisphere with a coupled atmosphere-sea ice-ocean-terrestrial ice model

 A simple climate model has been developed to investigate the existence of the small ice cap instability in the Southern Hemisphere. The model consists of four coupled components: an atmospheric energy balance model, a thermodynamic snow-sea ice model, an oceanic mixed layer model and a terrestrial ice model. Results from a series of experiments involving different degrees of coupling in the model show that the instability appears only in those cases when an explicit representation of the Antarctic ice sheet is not included in the model. In order to determine which physical processes in the ice sheet model lead to a stabilization of the system we have conducted several sensitivity experiments in each of which a given ice sheet process has been removed from the control formulation of the model. Results from these experiments suggest that the feedback between the elevation of the ice sheet and the snow accumulation-ice ablation balance is responsible for the disappearance of the small ice cap instability in our simulation. In the model, the mass balance of the ice sheet depends on the air temperature at sea level corrected for altitude and it is, therefore, a function of surface elevation. This altitude-mass balance feedback effectively decouples the location of the ice edge from any specific sea level isotherm, thus decreasing the model sensitivity to the albedo-temperature feedback, which is responsible for the appearance of the instability. It is also shown that the elevation-radiative cooling feedback tends to stabilize the ice sheet, although its effect does not seem to be strong enough to remove the instability. Another interesting result is that for those simulations which include the terrestrial ice model with elevation-dependent surface mass balance, hysteresis is exhibited, where for a given level of external forcing, two stable solutions with different, non-zero ice-sheet volume and area and different air and ocean temperature fields occur. However, no unstable transition between the two solutions is ever observed. Our results suggest that the small ice cap instability mechanism could be unsuitable for explaining the inception of glaciation in Antarctica. Received: 14 April 1997 / Accepted: 22 October 1997     

Evaluation of a high-resolution regional climate simulation over Greenland

A simulation of the 1991 summer has been performed over south Greenland with a coupled atmosphere–snow regional climate model (RCM) forced by the ECMWF re-analysis. The simulation is evaluated with in-situ coastal and ice-sheet atmospheric and glaciological observations. Modelled air temperature, specific humidity, wind speed and radiative fluxes are in good agreement with the available observations, although uncertainties in the radiative transfer scheme need further investigation to improve the model’s performance. In the sub-surface snow-ice model, surface albedo is calculated from the simulated snow grain shape and size, snow depth, meltwater accumulation, cloudiness and ice albedo. The use of snow metamorphism processes allows a realistic modelling of the temporal variations in the surface albedo during both melting periods and accumulation events. Concerning the surface albedo, the main finding is that an accurate albedo simulation during the melting season strongly depends on a proper initialization of the surface conditions which mainly result from winter accumulation processes. Furthermore, in a sensitivity experiment with a constant 0.8 albedo over the whole ice sheet, the average amount of melt decreased by more than 60%, which highlights the importance of a correctly simulated surface albedo. The use of this coupled atmosphere–snow RCM offers new perspectives in the study of the Greenland surface mass balance due to the represented feedback between the surface climate and the surface albedo, which is the most sensitive parameter in energy-balance-based ablation calculations.     

Reconstruction of Climate of the Eemian Interglacial Using an Earth System Model. Part 2. The Response of the Greenland Ice Sheet to Climate Change

In the framework of the study of the Eemian interglacial we consider the role of the Greenland ice sheet in the rise of the mean level of the World Ocean. Its contribution estimated as 2 m confirms the newest estimates based on the model results and on the proxy data analysis. In the beginning of the Eemian interglacial (earlier than 126 thousand years ago) mass lost occurs through the marine margin of the sheet. During the next five millennia, the negative surface mass balance plays the leading role. Taking into account the contribution of Greenland ice sheet, ocean thermal expansion, and the melting of mountain glaciers and ice caps, it is very probable that the West Antarctic ice sheet was the main source of the global sea level growth equal to 6–9 m the compared to the present.     

Multistability of the Greenland ice sheet and the effects of an adaptive mass balance formulation

The effect of a warmer climate on the Greenland ice sheet as well as its ability to regrow from a reduced geometry is important knowledge when studying future climate. Here we use output from a general circulation model to construct adaptive temperature and precipitation patterns to force an ice flow model off-line taking into consideration that the patterns change in a non-uniform way (both spatially and temporally) as the geometry of the ice sheet evolves and as climate changes. In a series of experiments we investigate the retreat from the present day configuration, build-up from ice free conditions of the ice sheet during a warmer-than-present climate and how the ice sheet moves between states. The adaptive temperature and accumulation patterns as well as two different constant-pattern formulations are applied and all experiments are run to steady state. All results fall into four different groups of geometry regardless of the applied accumulation pattern and initial state. We find that the ice sheet is able to survive and build up at higher temperatures using the more realistic adaptive patterns compared to the classic constant patterns. In contrast, decay occurs at considerably higher temperatures than build-up when the other formulations are used. When studying the motion between states it is clear that the initial state is crucial for the result. The ice sheet is thus multistable at least for certain temperature forcings, and this implies that the ice sheet not does not necessarily return to its initial configuration after a temperature excursion.     

Sea-ice effects on climate model sensitivity and low frequency variability

A change in a sea-ice parameter in a global coupled climate model results in a reduction in amplitude (of about 60%) and a shortening of the predominant period of decadal low frequency variability in the time series of globally averaged surface air temperature. These changes are global in extent and also are reflected in time series of area-averaged SSTs in the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean, the principal components of the first EOFs of global surface air temperature and sea level pressure, Asian monsoon precipitations and other quantities. Coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice processes acting on a global scale are modified to produce these changes. Global climate sensitivity is reduced when ice albedo feedback is weakened due to the change in sea ice that makes it more difficult to melt. The changes in the amplitude and time scale of the low frequency variability in the model are traced to changes in the base state of the climate simulations as affected by modifications associated with the changes in sea ice. Making sea ice more difficult to melt results in increased sea-ice area, colder high latitudes, increased meridional surface temperature gradients, and, to a first order, stronger surface winds in most regions which strengthen near-surface currents, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere, and decreases the advection time scale in the upper ocean gyres. Additionally, in the North Atlantic there is enhanced meridional overturning due to increased density mainly in the Greenland Sea region. This also contributes to an intensified North Atlantic gyre. The changes in base state due to the sea ice change result in a more predominant decadal time scale of near 14 years and significantly reduced contributions from lower frequencies in the range of 15–40 year periods. Received: 11 December 1998 / Accepted: 4 October 1999     

Persistent multi-decadal Greenland temperature fluctuation through the last millennium

Future Greenland temperature evolution will affect melting of the ice sheet and associated global sea-level change. Therefore, understanding Greenland temperature variability and its relation to global trends is critical. Here, we reconstruct the last 1,000 years of central Greenland surface temperature from isotopes of N₂ and Ar in air bubbles in an ice core. This technique provides constraints on decadal to centennial temperature fluctuations. We found that northern hemisphere temperature and Greenland temperature changed synchronously at periods of ~20 years and 40–100 years. This quasi-periodic multi-decadal temperature fluctuation persisted throughout the last millennium, and is likely to continue into the future.     

Global Warming and the Greenland Ice Sheet

The Greenland coastal temperatures have followed the early 20th century global warming trend. Since 1940, however, the Greenland coastal stations data have undergone predominantly a cooling trend. At the summit of the Greenland ice sheet the summer average temperature has decreased at the rate of 2.2 °C per decade since the beginning of the measurements in 1987. This suggests that the Greenland ice sheet and coastal regions are not following the current global warming trend. A considerable and rapid warming over all of coastal Greenland occurred in the 1920s when the average annual surface air temperature rose between 2 and 4 °C in less than ten years (at some stations the increase in winter temperature was as high as 6 °C). This rapid warming, at a time when the change in anthropogenic production of greenhouse gases was well below the current level, suggests a high natural variability in the regional climate. High anticorrelations (r = ?0.84 to?0.93) between the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) index and Greenland temperature time series suggest a physical connection between these processes. Therefore, the future changes in the NAO and Northern Annular Mode may be of critical consequence to the future temperature forcing of the Greenland ice sheet melt rates.     

Late Pliocene to Pleistocene sensitivity of the Greenland Ice Sheet in response to external forcing and internal feedbacks

The timing and nature of ice sheet variations on Greenland over the last ～5 million years remain largely uncertain. Here, we use a coupled climate-vegetation-ice sheet model to determine the climatic sensitivity of Greenland to combined sets of external forcings and internal feedbacks operating on glacial-interglacial timescales. In particular, we assess the role of atmospheric pCO₂, orbital forcing, and vegetation dynamics in modifying thresholds for the onset of glaciation in late Pliocene and Pleistocene. The response of circum-Arctic vegetation to declining levels of pCO₂ (from 400 to 200 ppmv) and decreasing summer insolation includes a shift from boreal forest to tundra biomes, with implications for the surface energy balance. The expansion of tundra amplifies summer surface cooling and heat loss from the ground, leading to an expanded summer snow cover over Greenland. Atmospheric and land surface fields respond to forcing most prominently in late spring-summer and are more sensitive at lower Pleistocene-like levels of pCO₂. We find cold boreal summer orbits produce favorable conditions for ice sheet growth, however simulated ice sheet extents are highly dependent on both background pCO₂ levels and land-surface characteristics. As a result, late Pliocene ice sheet configurations on Greenland differ considerably from late Pleistocene, with smaller ice caps on high elevations of southern and eastern Greenland, even when orbital forcing is favorable for ice sheet growth.     

Long-term ice sheet–climate interactions under anthropogenic greenhouse forcing simulated with a complex Earth System Model

Several multi-century and multi-millennia simulations have been performed with a complex Earth System Model (ESM) for different anthropogenic climate change scenarios in order to study the long-term evolution of sea level and the impact of ice sheet changes on the climate system. The core of the ESM is a coupled coarse-resolution Atmosphere–Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM). Ocean biogeochemistry, land vegetation and ice sheets are included as components of the ESM. The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) decays in all simulations, while the Antarctic ice sheet contributes negatively to sea level rise, due to enhanced storage of water caused by larger snowfall rates. Freshwater flux increases from Greenland are one order of magnitude smaller than total freshwater flux increases into the North Atlantic basin (the sum of the contribution from changes in precipitation, evaporation, run-off and Greenland meltwater) and do not play an important role in changes in the strength of the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (NAMOC). The regional climate change associated with weakening/collapse of the NAMOC drastically reduces the decay rate of the GrIS. The dynamical changes due to GrIS topography modification driven by mass balance changes act first as a negative feedback for the decay of the ice sheet, but accelerate the decay at a later stage. The increase of surface temperature due to reduced topographic heights causes a strong acceleration of the decay of the ice sheet in the long term. Other feedbacks between ice sheet and atmosphere are not important for the mass balance of the GrIS until it is reduced to 3/4 of the original size. From then, the reduction in the albedo of Greenland strongly accelerates the decay of the ice sheet.     

The Natural Fluctuations of Firn Densification and Their Effect on the Geodetic Determination of Ice Sheet Mass Balance

A one-dimensional, numerical model of time-evolving firn densification was used to simulate the response of the density profile through an ice sheet to changes in the temperature, density and accumulation rate at the surface. The equilibrium response of the model was compared with ice-core density profiles from Byrd, Antarctica and Site 2, Greenland, and the model predicted the density to within 10% of both cores. The response of the model to step-wise changes and random fluctuations in the surface boundary conditions was investigated. The standard deviation of elevation changes as a function of observation interval was computed. These changes were found to be small in comparison with the magnitude of present uncertainties in the mass balances of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets. It was concluded that, in the dry snow zones, natural variability in the densification will not prevent the geodetic determination of ice sheet mass balance from improving upon current estimates. Uncertainty in the constitutive equation for snow and firn is the dominant source of error in the calculations.     

春季格陵兰海冰与夏季中国气温和降水的关系

采有英国Hadley中心的GISST海冰面积资料，NCFP／NCAR再分析资料以及中国160站气温和降水资料，分析了春季格陵兰海冰面积与夏季中国区域气温和降水的关系。初步研究表明，春季格陵兰海冰面积变化和随后夏季我国黄河长江中下游之间地区气温以及8月份华北和西南地区降水呈明显正相关，而和6月黄河中上游地区降水则具有明显的负相关。同时，春季格陵兰海冰异常时期对应着北半球大气环流的明显主为化，表明海冰与我国气温及降水之间的联系具有一定的环流背景。     

Sensitivity of the last glacial inception to initial and surface conditions

We investigate the sensitivity of simulations of the last glacial inception (LGI) with respect to initial (size of the Greenland ice sheet) and surface (state of ocean/vegetation) conditions and two different CO₂ reconstructions. Utilizing the CLIMBER-2 Earth system model, we obtain the following results: (a) ice-sheet expansion in North America at the end of the Eemian can be reduced or even completely suppressed when pre-industrial or Eemian ocean/vegetation is prescribed. (b) A warmer surrounding ocean and, in particular, a large Laurentide ice sheet reduce the size of the Greenland ice sheet before and during the LGI. (c) A changing ocean contributes much stronger to the expansion of the Laurentide ice sheet when we apply the CO₂ reconstruction according to Barnola et al. (Nature 329:408–414, 1987) instead of Petit et al. (Nature 399:429–436, 1999). (d) In the fully coupled model, the CO₂ reconstruction used has only a small impact on the simulated ice sheets but it does impact the course of the climatic variables. (e) For the Greenland ice sheet, two equilibrium states exist under the insolation and CO₂ forcing at 128,000 years before present (128 kyear BP); the one with an ice sheet reduced by about one quarter as compared to its simulated pre-industrial size and the other with nearly no inland ice in Greenland. (f) Even the extreme assumption of no ice sheet in Greenland at the beginning of our transient simulations does not alter the simulated expansion of northern hemispheric ice sheets at the LGI.     

Quantifying Arctic contributions to climate predictability in a regional coupled ocean-ice-atmosphere model

The relative importance of regional processes inside the Arctic climate system and the large scale atmospheric circulation for Arctic interannual climate variability has been estimated with the help of a regional Arctic coupled ocean-ice-atmosphere model. The study focuses on sea ice and surface climate during the 1980s and 1990s. Simulations agree reasonably well with observations. Correlations between the winter North Atlantic Oscillation index and the summer Arctic sea ice thickness and summer sea ice extent are found. Spread of sea ice extent within an ensemble of model runs can be associated with a surface pressure gradient between the Nordic Seas and the Kara Sea. Trends in the sea ice thickness field are widely significant and can formally be attributed to large scale forcing outside the Arctic model domain. Concerning predictability, results indicate that the variability generated by the external forcing is more important in most regions than the internally generated variability. However, both are in the same order of magnitude. Local areas such as the Northern Greenland coast together with Fram Straits and parts of the Greenland Sea show a strong importance of internally generated variability, which is associated with wind direction variability due to interaction with atmospheric dynamics on the Greenland ice sheet. High predictability of sea ice extent is supported by north-easterly winds from the Arctic Ocean to Scandinavia.     

Response of the Antarctic ice sheet to future greenhouse warming

Possible future changes in land ice volume are mentioned frequently as an important aspect of the greenhouse problem. This paper deals with the response of the Antarctic ice sheet and presents a tentative projection of changes in global sea level for the next few hundred years, due to changes in its surface mass balance. We imposed a temperature scenario, in which surface air temperature rises to 4.2° C in the year 2100 AD and is kept constant afterwards. As GCM studies seem to indicate a higher temperature increase in polar latitudes, the response to a more extreme scenario (warming doubled) has also been investigated. The mass balance model, driven by these temperature perturbations, consists of two parts: the accumulation rate is derived from present observed values and is consequently perturbed in proportion to the saturated vapour pressure at the temperature above the inversion layer. The ablation model is based on the degree-day method. It accounts for the daily temperature cycle, uses a different degree-day factor for snow and ice melting and treats refreezing of melt water in a simple way. According to this mass balance model, the amount of accumulation over the entire ice sheet is presently 24.06 × 10¹¹ m³ of ice, and no runoff takes place. A 1°C uniform warming is then calculated to increase the overall mass balance by an amount of 1.43 × 10¹¹ m³ of ice, corresponding to a lowering of global sea level with 0.36 mm/yr. A temperature increase of 5.3°C is needed for the increase in ablation to become more important than the increase in accumulation and the temperature would have to rise by as much as 11.4°C to produce a zero surface mass balance. Imposing the Bellagio-scenario and accumulating changes in mass balance forward in time (static response) would then lower global sea level by 9 cm by 2100 AD. In a subsequent run with a high-resolution 3-D thermomechanic model of the ice sheet, it turns out that the dynamic response of the ice sheet (as compared to the direct effect of the changes in surface mass balance) becomes significant after 100 years or so. Ice-discharge across the grounding-line increases, and eventually leads to grounding-line retreat. This is particularly evident in the extreme case scenario and is important along the Antarctic Peninsula and the overdeepened outlet glaciers along the East Antarctic coast. Grounding-line retreat in the Ross and Ronne-Filchner ice shelves, on the other hand, is small or absent.     

A box model study of the Greenland Sea,Norwegian Sea,and Arctic Ocean

We develop a simple dynamical system model of the Arctic Ocean and marginal seas by applying the Martinson, Killworth and Gordon box model of a high-latitude two-layer ocean to four regions connected together: the Greenland Sea, the Norwegian Sea, the Arctic Ocean, and the Greenland Gyre. The latter is a small convective region embedded in the northwest corner of the Norwegian Sea. The model for each region consists of a thermodynamic ice layer that covers two layers of saline water which can, under specific conditions, become statically unstable and hence create a state of active overturning. The system is forced by monthly mean atmospheric temperatures in the four regions, by continental runoffs and by inflows from adjacent oceans. The model predicts the ice thickness, and the temperature and salinity of the water in the upper layer of the four regions. Also determined are the water temperature and salinity of the lower layer in the Arctic Ocean box. The convective state of any given region, i.e. whether it is in an active overturning mode or not, is also determined as a continuous function of time. The different output variables of the model, which are the response to climatological forcing conditions, compare favourably with observed data. In the control run, the Arctic Ocean region is characterized by continuous ice cover, the Greenland Sea and Greenland Gyre have ice cover only during winter, and the Norwegian Sea region never forms an ice cover. Another feature of the control run is the winter time occurrence of convective overturning in the upper 200 m in the Greenland Gyre region. The model is also used for different anomaly experiments: a positive air temperature anomaly which represents a global warming of the earth, a negative salt anomaly in the Norwegian Sea which simulates the great salinity anomaly of the 1960s and 1970s, and an increase in the ice flux through Fram Strait which parameterizes anomalous ice production in the Arctic.     

Sensitivity of a Greenland ice sheet model to ice flow and ablation parameters: consequences for the evolution through the last climatic cycle

Sensitivity experiments are conducted to test the influence of poorly known model parameters on the simulation of the Greenland ice sheet by means of a three dimensional numerical model including the mechanical and thermal processes within the ice. Two types of experiments are performed: steady-state climatic conditions and simulations over the last climatic cycle with a climatic forcing derived from the GRIP record. The experiments show that the maximum altitude of the ice sheet depends on the ice flow parameters (deformation and sliding law coefficients, geothermal flux) and that it is low when the ice flow is fast. On the other hand, the maximum altitude is not sensitive to the ablation strength and consequently during the climatic cycle it is driven by changes in accumulation rate. The ice sheet extension shows the opposite sensitivity: it is barely affected by ice flow velocity and the ice covered area is smaller for large ablation coefficients. For colder climates, when there is no ablation, the ice sheet extension depends on the sea level. An interesting result is that the variations with time of the altitude at the ice divide (Summit) do not depend on the parameters we tested. The present modelled ice sheets resulting from the climatic cycle experiments are compared with the present measured ice sheet in order to find the set of parameters that gives the best fit between modelled and measured geometry. It seems that, compared to the parameter set most commonly used, higher ablation rate coefficents must be used. Received: 19 September 1995 / Accepted: 30 May 1996