Impact of Climate Warming in the Past 20 Years on Agriculture in Different Regions of China

 Based on the China Rural Statistical Yearbook of 1984-2003 published by State Statistics Bureau, and the annual temperature in the same period, impacts of temperature change, agricultural input, and planting area on grain production were analyzed for different regions of China during the last 20 years. The results show that the main characteristic of climate warming has obviously promoted the increase of grain yield in Northeast China, but to some extent suppressed it in North China, Northwest China and Southwest China, and shown no obvious effect on it in East China and Central-South China. The increase in agricultural input facilitated the grain production obviously in various regions in the early stage of the past 20 years, but showed no obvious effect in the late stage. The continuous reduction in sown area had a significant negative effect on the grain production in East China and Central-South China.     

气候变暖对中国不同地区农业的影响

摘要：利用国家统计局《中国农村统计年鉴》1984-2003年的数据和同期年平均温度的观测数据,分析了我国不同地区20年间温度变化、农业生产资料投入以及播种面积变化对粮食总产的影响。结果表明,以温度升高为主要特征的气候变化对东北地区农作物增产有明显促进作用,对华北、西北和西南地区的农作物增产有一定抑制作用,对华东和中南地区的农作物粮食产量的影响则不明显。农业投入的增加对各地区的农作物增产在早期作用均显著,后期则增长缓慢。而各地区播种面积的变化对其总产量影响不太明显,但华东和中南地区农业播种面积的持续下降对粮食总产量有较大的抑制作用。     

1953—2005年内蒙古东部产粮区气候变化特征研究

利用系统聚类分析和相关分析方法,根据1953—2005年内蒙古东部产粮区48个气象站的气象资料,进行了气候相似区划分;并得出各区在热量、水分的时间变化上具有较高的区域一致性。据此,以区域内各站点的温度、降水和日照时数的平均值作为区域热水光时间序列,分析了各气候要素变化特征及其对农业可能产生的影响。结果表明:各区域温度呈上升趋势,增温速率(平均增温为0.3—0.4℃/10 a)高于中国平均增温速率(0.22℃/10 a),增温幅度呈从西向东递增的趋势,平均最低气温增幅最大,平均最高气温增温幅度与海拔呈正相关,尤以1988年以后变暖趋势最为明显;降水量基本呈减少趋势,年代际波动较大;20世纪90年代至今,内蒙古东部产粮区生长季降水明显减少,气温迅速升高,暖干化趋势表现明显,温差减小和日照时数减少,水热匹配格局发生改变,粮食产量出现减少趋势的可能性较大。     

1953-2005年内蒙古东部产粮区气候变化特征研究

利用系统聚类分析和相关分析方法,根据1953--2005年内蒙古东部产粮区48个气象站的气象资料．进行了气候相似区划分;并得出各区在热量、水分的时间变化上具有较高的区域一致性。据此,以区域内各站点的温度、降水和日照时数的平均值作为区域热水光时间序列,分析了各气候要素变化特征及其对农业可能产生的影响。结果表明：各区域温度呈上升趋势,增温速率（平均增温为0．3-0．4℃／10a）高于中国平均增温速率（0．22℃／10a）,增温幅度呈从西向东递增的趋势,平均最低气温增幅最大,平均最高气温增温幅度与海拔呈正相关,尤以1988年以后变暖趋势最为明显;降水量基本呈减少趋势,年代际波动较大;20世纪90年代至今,内蒙古东部产粮区生长季降水明显减少,气温迅速升高,暖千化趋势表现明显,温差减小和日照时数减少,水热匹配格局发生改变,粮食产量出现减少趋势的可能性较大。     

气候变化对我国农作物种植结构的影响

气候变化引起水热条件的变化,从而影响到我国农业生产的方方面面,人们采取不同措施以适应气候变化带来的各种影响。为了清楚地认识气候变化对我国主要粮食作物生产的影响以及适应措施,利用《中国农业统计年鉴》1980-2007年资料和1961-2007年全国逐日平均温度观测数据及前人的研究成果,分析了气候变化对我国三大粮食作物布局和种植结构的影响。结果表明,由于气候变暖,粮食作物种植比例变化明显。小麦种植比例对气候变化最为敏感,波动大;水稻种植比例变化南北方反向,且变化幅度趋缓;玉米种植比例持续增加,增幅加大。三大粮食作物种植结构变化均以2000年为分界点,呈现不同增减趋势。而作物熟制、复种指数也发生明显变化,种植北界持续北推。黑龙江地区大面积扩种水稻,原来的玉米优势种植区为水稻所替代。     

大气中CO_2含量增长后的温室效应对我国未来农业生产的可能影响

大气中CO_2含量升高引起的气候变化是目前人们十分关注的问题,地球变暖是不少科学家的共同看法.本文根据赵宗慈估算的CO_2含量增加1倍时对我国气候的可能影响,分析了这种变化对农业热量资源及农业生产的可能影响.结果表明:积温将增加无霜期延长,种植界线向北推移,对我国粮食产量的影响区域间差异较大,三北地区为增产趋势,华南为减产趋势.     

Adaptation of agriculture to warming in Northeast China

Northeast China comprises Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning Provinces, with a total area of 790,000 km² and a population of about 107 million. Northeast China, located at relatively high latitudes, (from about 39 to 53°N), is one of the coolest regions in China with long and cold winters, a short growth season and frequent cold extreme events, which are adverse to agricultural production. However, since the 1980s, Northeast China has experienced significant warming with annual mean temperature rising by 1.0–2.5°C. The increase of accumulated temperature, the extension of the growth period and the recession of summer cool disasters all contributed to improved conditions for crop growth and led to a northward movement of the agricultural climate zone. In addition, the adaptation to warming including the adjustment of crop composition and structure as well as the adoption of advanced technologies greatly facilitated agricultural development. As a result, total grain production in the region increased rapidly. This paper describes in detail climate change, adaptation measures and final agricultural outcomes, alongside with economic and political factors and the role of different political actors in Northeast China.     

1951—2008年吉林市气候变化特征

应用滑动平均、滑动变异系数等方法对吉林市1951-2008年气温和降水量进行了分析.结果发现:吉林市气温旱上升趋势,平均气温增温速率比全国高0.10℃/10a,但比东北区低0.03℃/10a;降水总体旱减少的趋势,春季降水有增长的趋势,夏季降水目前处于少雨段,秋季降水变化不明显,冬季降雪呈逐渐递增的趋势;降水的变率明显...     

吉林省气候变化及其对粮食生产的影响

The climate observation data,reanalysis data,and grain/soybean yields per unit area were used to analyze and interpret the impact of climate change on grain production.The results show that Jilin Province was located in a remarkable increase area of temperature during the growing season(May-September)from 1948 in the middle latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.The mid-west and south of Jilin Province and Liaoning Province were located in a clear linear decrease tendency area of annual precipitation,wherein a warm/dry tendency of climate change dominated,while the east of Jilin Province lay in a clear linear decrease tendency area of annual precipitation.The climate warming played an important role in continuous increase in the grain yield per unit area since the 1980's in the main grain production areas of Jilin Province,however,from the end of the 20th century to the beginning of the 21st century,the beneficial effect seemed to be not obvious any longer,the grain yield per unit area fluctuated with annual precipitation.     

Climate Change and Its Impacts on Grain Production in Jilin Province

 The climate observation data, reanalysis data, and grain/soybean yields per unit area were used to analyze and interpret the impact of climate change on grain production. The results show that Jilin Province was located in a remarkable increase area of temperature during the growing season (May-September) from 1948 in the middle latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The mid-west and south of Jilin Province and Liaoning Province were located in a clear linear decrease tendency area of annual precipitation, wherein a warm/dry tendency of climate change dominated, while the east of Jilin Province lay in a clear linear decrease tendency area of annual precipitation. The climate warming played an important role in continuous increase in the grain yield per unit area since the1980's in the main grain production areas of Jilin Province, however, from the end of the 20th century to the beginning of the 21st century, the beneficial effect seemed to be not obvious any longer, the grain yield per unit area fluctuated with annual precipitation.