基于CLM4.5模式的季节冻土区土壤参数化方案的模拟研究

利用位于季节冻土区的中国科学院那曲高寒气候环境观测研究站那曲/BJ观测点的野外观测数据,通过CLM4.5的单点模拟实验,分析评估了Luo土壤热导率参数化方案、Johansen土壤热导率参数化方案、Coté土壤热导率参数化方案和虚温参数化方案对土壤温、湿度的模拟能力,为将来选取最优的参数及参数化方案来更合理的模拟青藏高原土壤冻融过程为目的的工作提供依据。结果表明:(1)三种土壤热导率参数化方案模拟结果的土壤热传导率有明显差异,其中Coté方案的土壤热传导率最高,Luo方案的土壤热传导率最低。(2)三种热传导率方案均能合理地模拟出土壤温湿度的日变化趋势,Johansen方案对土壤温度年变化趋势模拟的更好,Coté方案对土壤温度模拟的数值较观测值偏离的更小,Luo方案对土壤湿度的模拟更好。(3)加入虚拟温度方程,并引入相变效率参数后,减少了模式对土壤湿度模拟的负偏差,Y-L方案在保持土壤温度较好模拟能力的基础上,能够进一步的提升土壤湿度的模拟能力。     

黄河源区若尔盖站冻融期土壤温、湿度的模拟与改进

利用陆面过程模式CLM3.5对黄河源区若尔盖站进行了一年的数值模拟试验,通过比较土壤温度、土壤含水量的观测值与模拟值,检验了该模式在黄河源季节性冻土地区的模拟能力。结果表明,模式对土壤温度的模拟,非冻结期较好,深层土壤温度稍偏高;冻结期模拟值偏低,冻结深度偏大。对土壤含水量的模拟,在冻融期出现了较大偏差,含水量骤降(冻结)、骤增(消融)的时间均较观测提前。模式土壤热传导参数化方案中的土壤基质热导率计算偏大是造成土壤温、湿度偏差的主要原因。将Johansen土壤基质热导率方案替换了原模式参数化方案后,模拟结果有一定的改进,土壤温度暖舌、冷舌的模拟深度显著减小,冻结期土壤温度模拟偏低的现象也得到了改进,土壤含水量骤降、骤增的时间与观测更为接近。     

青藏高原那曲地区冻融过程的数值模拟研究

利用中国科学院那曲高寒气候环境观测研究站冻融期(2013年3月1日至6月1日)的气象和土壤观测资料,通过陆面模式Co LM对那曲地区土壤冻融过程进行了数值模拟。模拟结果表明,Co LM模式对土壤温度、感热通量和潜热通量的模拟与观测较吻合,但对土壤湿度的模拟偏差较大,而模式冻融参数化方案的不足是造成这一较大偏差的主要原因。根据热力学平衡下土壤水势与温度之间的关系以及Clapp-Hornberger经验公式对冻融参数化方案进行了优化,优化冻融参数化方案后,模式能够更真实地模拟出土壤冻融过程特征,尤其是对土壤湿度偏低的现象改进较大。     

土壤砾石参数化对一次高原低涡形成发展影响的数值模拟

为了验证陆面过程模式砾石参数化方案在青藏高原上的天气过程的模拟能力,本文通过耦合了砾石参数化方案CLM4.5的区域气候模式RegCM4,对一次高原低涡个例进行模拟研究,利用模拟的500 hPa高空形势场、2 m温湿度和土壤温湿度等数据,结合ERA5资料对比验证分析。结果表明：加入砾石参数化方案的RegCM4对本次高原涡个例模拟效果整体较好;在500 hPa高空形势场中,新方案比旧方案更为准确地模拟出高原涡中心位置和涡区温度场特征;在高原涡生成和发展阶段,新方案模拟的2 m温度和相对湿度效果明显较旧方案强,为低涡的生成和发展提供有利条件;在土壤温湿度的模拟中,加入砾石后提升了土壤的导热率和导水率,使高原涡在初生和发展阶段提供更好的土壤热力和水分条件;高原涡消亡阶段,新方案使浅层土壤温度下降,深层土壤温度升高;在500 hPa反气旋性环流地区,新方案模拟的土壤体积含水量较旧方案偏低,而当青藏高原高空无强烈天气系统时,新旧方案在土壤体积含水量的模拟表现差别不大。在高原涡整个生命史中,新方案在浅层土壤温度的模拟明显优于旧方案,而在土壤体积含水量模拟中第1层效果最好。     

土壤湿度和土壤温度模拟中的参数敏感性分析和优化

使用一种复杂洗牌算法 (SCE-UA, Shuffled Complex Evolution Algorithm) 对Noah陆面模式中的参数进行敏感性分析和优化,其中水文参数采取直接优化和优化土壤成份的形式,侧重于研究两种水文参数给出方法对土壤湿度和土壤温度模拟的敏感性。结果表明:将土壤湿度和土壤温度作为判据,模式中水文参数敏感性最高,水文参数对土壤湿度的敏感性要高于对土壤温度的敏感性。表层土壤湿度作为判据对土壤水文参数优化后,可以改善土壤湿度和土壤温度的模拟,加入深层土壤湿度同时作为判据后,优化使土壤温度的模拟变差。当土壤成份作为优化的参数,表层和深层土壤湿度作为判据,优化能够同时改善土壤湿度和土壤温度的模拟。单独使用土壤温度作为判据不能达到优化水文参数的目的。将土壤成份作为优化的参数后,土壤湿度和土壤温度的多判据优化效果最好,且减少不敏感参数的个数后对优化结果的影响总体不大。基于以上结果,将土壤成份作为优化水文参数的方法能够更好的考虑不同水文参数之间的约束关系,优化后的水文参数具有很好的一致性,优化效果较直接优化水文参数更好。     

根系吸水过程参数化方案对青藏高原陆面过程模拟的影响研究

根系吸水过程对地表能量平衡和水循环起着重要作用，目前不同的根系吸水过程参数化方案对青藏高原陆面过程模拟的影响尚不明确，探讨相关参数化方案的影响，可以为今后建立陆面过程模式根系参数化方案提供参考。本文利用2010年6月1日至9月30日青藏高原玛曲站的观测资料作为大气强迫资料，驱动BCC_AVIM模式（北京气候中心陆面模式）引入不同的根系吸水过程参数化方案，对玛曲站2010年6月1日至9月30日时段感热通量、潜热通量、土壤温度、土壤含水量等要素进行数值模拟，分析根系吸水过程参数化方案对青藏高原地区陆面过程的影响。模式中有关根系吸水过程的参数化方案主要分为根分布模型和土壤水分对根系有效性函数两类，根分布模型用Jackson方案、Schenk方案替换，土壤水分对根系有效性函数用Li方案、LSM1.0方案、CLM4.5方案替换。对比结果表明:不同的根系吸水过程参数化方案对土壤温度、土壤含水量的模拟影响较小，对感热通量、潜热通量模拟影响较大，尤其对冠层蒸腾量模拟差异显著，相关参数化方案的变动直接影响冠层蒸腾量。两类方案模拟的差异受降水的影响，在多雨期，根分布对比方案与原模式方案模拟的感热、潜热通量间存在较大差异；在少雨期，土壤水分对根系有效性函数对比方案与原模式方案模拟的感热、潜热通量间存在较大差异。     

青藏高原理塘地区土壤热参数的确定及其土壤温度模拟试验

为了准确获取青藏高原理塘地区的土壤热参数,利用2006年8月27日至9月4日期间青藏高原理塘地区陆面过程试验采集的土壤温度资料,分别采用位相法、振幅法以及耦合热传导-对流法计算了0~10 cm,10~15 cm,15~20 cm三层土壤热扩散率,并用耦合热传导-对流法计算了土壤液态水通量密度。根据计算结果,以地表温度作为上边界条件,分别模拟了9月19-21日期间10 cm、15 cm和20 cm三个深度的土壤温度。对比模拟值与观测值后发现:由于考虑了土壤中液态水的动态变化,耦合热传导-对流法对各层土壤温度模拟效果最为理想,其模拟值与观测值的相关系数分别为:r10cm=0.97、r15cm=0.98、r20cm=0.99,置信度为99%。其中,对10 cm深度而言,耦合热传导-对流法模拟的土壤温度位相比实际观测值平均前移约0.21 h,土壤温度日振幅比实际值高估约0.79℃,而振幅法则平均前移约0.45 h,位相法高估土壤温度日振幅约0.96℃。     

一个用于气候模式的简单冻土过程参数化方案的建立和检验

在NCAR／LSM的基础上，发展了一个简单的冻土过程参数化方案，并使用苏联6个站的水气象观测资料考察了耦合了新方案模式的气候效应。在新方案中，加入了对含冰量的求解和在相变过程中的能量变化;并使用Johanson的方案替代了模式中原有的土壤导热率的参数化方案，考虑了含冰量对土壤水热性质的影响。原模式和改进后模式的模拟结果的比较得到，冻土过程方案能够合理的模拟土壤列中的能量收支及水热性质随含冰量的变化。随着入渗的减少和径流的增加，春季的土壤湿度减小。因此，热通量的分配和土壤温度也产生了相应的变化。     

基于Noah-MP模式的影响青藏高原冻融过程参数化方案评估

针对陆面模式冻融过程模拟偏差较大问题,基于Noah-MP模式对冻融参数化方案进行比较分析,并利用观测资料对模拟试验结果进行评估。结果表明:Noah-MP模式能够较好地模拟出青藏高原冻融过程特征;冻融过程模拟对冻融参数化方案相当敏感,冻结阶段到融化阶段期间,4组试验模拟值差异显著,融化阶段之后到冻结阶段之前,4组试验模拟值相当一致;相对于过冷水参数化方案,冻土渗透率参数化方案对冻融过程期间土壤温度的模拟更为敏感,过冷水参数化方案不同会导致冻融过程期间土壤液态水含量模拟值差异显著。地表能量通量模拟对冻融参数化方案相当敏感,4组试验地表能量通量模拟值在冻结阶段、冻结稳定阶段、融化阶段均存在显著差异。     

砾石对青藏高原土壤水热特性影响的数值模拟

针对青藏高原土壤砾石含量较高的特点,对陆面过程模式CLM4.0土壤结构进行改进,发展了较适合青藏高原土壤特性的土壤参数化方案,在青藏高原那曲(BJ)站进行了应用,通过模拟结果和观测资料的对比,客观评估了新方案的模拟性能。结果表明:砾石含量越高的土壤,其导水率越大。土壤含水量较大时,土壤水势随砾石含量增高而变小;反之,土壤含水量较小时,土壤水势随砾石含量增高而变大。考虑了砾石对土壤水热过程影响后的新方案对土壤含水量和温度的模拟均有一定的改进,其中新方案较原方案对模拟的各层土壤含水量的平均均方根误差降低了32.7%;模拟的各层土壤温度平均均方根误差降低了24.6%。     

CHARACTERISTICS AND TRENDS OF CLIMATIC EXTREMES IN CHINA DURING 1959–2014

The spatial and temporal variations of daily maximum temperature(Tmax), daily minimum temperature(Tmin), daily maximum precipitation(Pmax) and daily maximum wind speed(WSmax) were examined in China using Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method. The results indicated that for China as a whole, Tmax, Tmin and Pmax had significant increasing trends at rates of 0.15℃ per decade, 0.45℃ per decade and 0.58 mm per decade,respectively, while WSmax had decreased significantly at 1.18 m·s~(-1) per decade during 1959—2014. In all regions of China, Tmin increased and WSmax decreased significantly. Spatially, Tmax increased significantly at most of the stations in South China(SC), northwestern North China(NC), northeastern Northeast China(NEC), eastern Northwest China(NWC) and eastern Southwest China(SWC), and the increasing trends were significant in NC, SC, NWC and SWC on the regional average. Tmin increased significantly at most of the stations in China, with notable increase in NEC, northern and southeastern NC and northwestern and eastern NWC. Pmax showed no significant trend at most of the stations in China, and on the regional average it decreased significantly in NC but increased in SC, NWC and the mid-lower Yangtze River valley(YR). WSmax decreased significantly at the vast majority of stations in China, with remarkable decrease in northern NC, northern and central YR, central and southern SC and in parts of central NEC and western NWC. With global climate change and rapidly economic development, China has become more vulnerable to climatic extremes and meteorological disasters, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of climatic extremes,such as environmentally-friendly and low-cost energy production systems and the enhancement of engineering defense measures are necessary for government and social publics.     

ANALYSIS OF “BIMODAL PATTERN” STORM ACTIVITY CHARACTERISTICS OF THE BAY OF BENGAL

Storms that occur at the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are of a bimodal pattern, which is different from that of the other sea areas. By using the NCEP, SST and JTWC data, the causes of the bimodal pattern storm activity of the BoB are diagnosed and analyzed in this paper. The result shows that the seasonal variation of general atmosphere circulation in East Asia has a regulating and controlling impact on the BoB storm activity, and the “bimodal period” of the storm activity corresponds exactly to the seasonal conversion period of atmospheric circulation. The minor wind speed of shear spring and autumn contributed to the storm, which was a crucial factor for the generation and occurrence of the “bimodal pattern” storm activity in the BoB. The analysis on sea surface temperature (SST) shows that the SSTs of all the year around in the BoB area meet the conditions required for the generation of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, the SSTs in the central area of the bay are higher than that of the surrounding areas in spring and autumn, which facilitates the occurrence of a “two-peak” storm activity pattern. The genesis potential index (GPI) quantifies and reflects the environmental conditions for the generation of the BoB storms. For GPI, the intense low-level vortex disturbance in the troposphere and high-humidity atmosphere are the sufficient conditions for storms, while large maximum wind velocity of the ground vortex radius and small vertical wind shear are the necessary conditions of storms.     

LOW-FREQUENCY CIRCULATION AND EXTENDED-RANGE FORECAST IN CONNECTION WITH AUTUMN EXTREME HEAVY RAINFALL PROCESS IN HAINAN

Observed daily precipitation data from the National Meteorological Observatory in Hainan province and daily data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis-2 dataset from 1981 to 2014 are used to analyze the relationship between Hainan extreme heavy rainfall processes in autumn (referred to as EHRPs) and 10–30 d low-frequency circulation. Based on the key low-frequency signals and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) model forecasting products, a dynamical-statistical method is established for the extended-range forecast of EHRPs. The results suggest that EHRPs have a close relationship with the 10–30 d low-frequency oscillation of 850 hPa zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north, and that they basically occur during the trough phase of the low-frequency oscillation of zonal wind. The latitudinal propagation of the low-frequency wave train in the middle-high latitudes and the meridional propagation of the low-frequency wave train along the coast of East Asia contribute to the ‘north high (cold), south low (warm)’ pattern near Hainan Island, which results in the zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north reaching its trough, consequently leading to EHRPs. Considering the link between low-frequency circulation and EHRPs, a low-frequency wave train index (LWTI) is defined and adopted to forecast EHRPs by using NCEP CFSv2 forecasting products. EHRPs are predicted to occur during peak phases of LWTI with value larger than 1 for three or more consecutive forecast days. Hindcast experiments for EHRPs in 2015–2016 indicate that EHRPs can be predicted 8–24 d in advance, with an average period of validity of 16.7 d.     

AN ATTRIBUTION ANALYSIS OF CHANGES IN POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IN THE BEIJING–TIANJIN–HEBEI REGION UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE

Based on the measurements obtained at 64 national meteorological stations in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region between 1970 and 2013, the potential evapotranspiration (ET0) in this region was estimated using the Penman–Monteith equation and its sensitivity to maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), wind speed (Vw), net radiation (Rn) and water vapor pressure (Pwv) was analyzed, respectively. The results are shown as follows. (1) The climatic elements in the BTH region underwent significant changes in the study period. Vw and Rn decreased significantly, whereas Tmin, Tmax and Pwv increased considerably. (2) In the BTH region, ET0 also exhibited a significant decreasing trend, and the sensitivity of ET0 to the climatic elements exhibited seasonal characteristics. Of all the climatic elements, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv in the fall and winter and Rn in the spring and summer. On the annual scale, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv, followed by Rn, Vw, Tmax and Tmin. In addition, the sensitivity coefficient of ET0 with respect to Pwv had a negative value for all the areas, indicating that increases in Pwv can prevent ET0 from increasing. (3) The sensitivity of ET0 to Tmin and Tmax was significantly lower than its sensitivity to other climatic elements. However, increases in temperature can lead to changes in Pwv and Rn. The temperature should be considered the key intrinsic climatic element that has caused the "evaporation paradox" phenomenon in the BTH region.     

Could the Recent Taal Volcano Eruption Trigger an El Ni?o and Lead to Eurasian Warming?

正The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth's climate and environment.     

Revisiting the Concentration Observations and Source Apportionment of Atmospheric Ammonia

正While China’s Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan on particulate matter since 2013 has reduced sulfate significantly, aerosol ammonium nitrate remains high in East China. As the high nitrate abundances are strongly linked with ammonia, reducing ammonia emissions is becoming increasingly important to improve the air quality of China. Although satellite data provide evidence of substantial increases in atmospheric ammonia concentrations over major agricultural regions, long-term surface observation of ammonia concentrations are sparse. In addition, there is still no consensus on     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA OF AIR–SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AND ITS VARIATION ACROSS SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE PAST 35 YEARS

Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.     

Information for Authors

正AIMS AND SCOPE Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters (AOSL) publishes short research letters on all disciplines of the atmosphere sciences and physical oceanography. Contributions from all over the world are welcome.SUBMISSIONAll submitted     

Information for Authors

AIMS AND SCOPE Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters （AOSL） pub- lishes short research letters on all disciplines of the atmos- phere sciences and physical oceanography. Contributions from all over the world are welcome.