MDERF产品在贵州月气候预测中的释用

基于MDERF(Monthly Dynamic Extension Range Forecast)模式输出500hPa位势高度场资料和贵州各月干旱综合指数、降水和气温等历史样本,利用秩序回归降尺度法,研究该方法对贵州月干旱综合指数、降水和气温的预报技巧和预测效果.结果表明:该方法从穷尽所有因子组合中选出彼此独立的3个最佳组合因子共同作为预报因子,从而增强可预报性;模型5 a回报试验和2007年8月试报结果表明该方法在实际预测业务中的应用潜力;各气候要素多年的距平相关系数评分比较稳定,其中月干旱综合指数、降水距平百分率、气温距平全年平均距平相关系数评分分别为0.14、0.15和0.14;各气候要素中月气温预报的Pc最高,平均为73%.综合分析表明,该方法在月动力延伸预报产品对贵州月气候要素预测释用中具有较好的应用前景.     

青海东部地区3～5月气候及环流特征分析

利用1961~2006年春季(3~5月)海东和西宁气象观测资料和500hPa高度场、环流特征指数和海温距平指数等资料,采用气候诊断方法对海东和西宁春季气温及降水的年代际变化特征以及影响因子进行了分析,并组建了气温和降水的预测方程。结果表明:海东和西宁春季的平均气温呈明显的升高趋势,降水呈微弱的增多趋势,气温每10a增加0.205℃;气温和降水分别存在准11a和22a的变化周期。青藏高原与中国东部沿海地区500hPa高度距平场形成“西低东高(西高东低)“的距平分布型时,海东和西宁春季容易出现多(少)雨年。印度洋副高、极涡、西太平洋副高、西藏高原、印缅槽、北美副高、东亚槽等环流指数以及太平洋地区海温指数的变化对该地区气温、降水的变化具有很好的指示作用。     

2009—2010年贵州秋、冬、春季干旱气象要素与环流特征分析

利用2009年9月—2010年5月贵州88个气象站地面观测资料,800个自动气象站温度、降水资料以及NCEP再分析资料,分析了持续干旱过程中的大尺度环流背景及气象要素分布特征,同时运用气候干湿指数、综合气象干旱指数对此次持续干旱程度进行了模拟。结果表明,贵州此次持续干旱天气主要发生在西太平洋副热带高压呈带状分布,强度偏强、位置偏西、南支系统偏弱及冷空气活动路径偏北偏东的环流条件下。在干旱期间,贵州西部地区气温为正距平,降水为负距平,空气相对湿度为38%～73%,气候干湿指数<0.6;东部地区气温除2009年11月和2010年4～5月为负距平外,其余月份均为正距平,降水基本上为负距平,空气相对湿度为60%～81%,除2009年11月和2010年4～5月气候干湿指数>1.0外,其余月份均<0.6。总体上,贵州西部地区的旱情较东部地区严重。     

温湿多雨洪涝成灾--2004年夏季(6-8月)山东天气评述

利用2004年6—8月山东省气温、降水、500hPa高度场和距平场资料，分析了2004年夏季的环流特征、山东天气气候特点和主要天气过程，并时夏季天气气候时农业和人民生活的影响作了简要评述。     

2004年秋季(9-11月)山东天气评述

利用2004年9-11月山东省各地的气温、降水及月、旬平均500hPa高度场和距平场等资料，分析了2004年秋季山东省气候特点、环流特征和主要的天气过程，综合评价了天气气候对农业生产及人民生活的影响。     

2007年春季（3—5月）天气评述——天气异常灾情频发

利用2007年3—5月山东省的气温、降水等天气实况资料、500hPa平均环流场和距平场资料，分析了山东省2007年春季的天气气候特点、环流特征和主要的天气过程。     

北半球增暖对我国气侯的影响

本文在分析100多年来北半球平均气温长期变化基本特征的基础上,讨论了北半球气温变化对我国气候变化的影响。结果表明,我国大范围气温距平与北半球平均气温有显著的正相关,长江中下游和华北平原的温度距平值平均为北半球平均气温距平的1.4-1.6倍。还表明,我国降水距平分布与北半球气温变化也有一定的联系。在北半球平均气温偏高和偏低年份,欧亚地区500hPa环流特征的差异是显著的。这表明,我国大范围气候距平与北半球平均气温距平的统计相关是有一定的物理基础的。     

2007年夏季（6-8月）天气评述——极端天气显著，多种灾害并存

利用2007年6-8月山东省的气温、降水实况资料、逐日探空资料、500hPa平均环流场和距平场资料，分析了山东省2007年夏季的天气气候特点、环流特征和主要的天气过程。     

石家庄降水量和气温变化特征分析

利用石家庄1955--2001年的降水和气温资料,对石家庄近47a的气候变化及特征进行分析、趋势分析结果显示：年气温呈上升趋势,其中最低气温与冬季气温的上升趋势比较明显;年降水趋势倾向不明显。利用墨西哥帽小波对四季、年的降水距平和温度距平进行小波变换,结果显示：四季、年的降水、温度距平呈现出不同的周期变化;夏季降水距平的信号震荡特征与年降水距平的信号震荡特征比较相似,冬季温度距平正中心强度为四季之首：     

2008年春季（3-5月）山东天气评述

利用2008年3-5月山东省的气温、降水等天气实况资料以及500hPa平均环流场和距平场资料,分析了山东省2008年春季的天气气候特点、环流特征和主要的天气过程。     

China’s rising influence on climate governance: Forging a path for the global South

China’s influence on climate governance has been steadily increasing since the adoption of the Paris Agreement on climate change in 2015. Much of this influence, this article argues, has come from China forging a path for climate adaptation and mitigation for the global South. This is having far-reaching consequences, the article further argues, for the politics of global climate governance. China’s discursive and diplomatic power in climate politics is growing as China builds alliances across the global South. China is leveraging this enhanced soft power to elevate the importance of adaptation in multilateral climate negotiations, advance a technocentric approach to climate mitigation, export its development model, and promote industrial-scale afforestation as a nature-based climate solution. China’s strategy is enhancing climate financing, technology transfers, renewable power, and adaptation infrastructure across the global South. To some extent, this is helping with a transition to a low-carbon world economy. Yet China’s leadership is also reinforcing incremental, technocratic, and growth-oriented solutions in global climate governance. These findings advance the understanding of China’s role in global environmental politics, especially its growing influence on climate governance in the global South.     

我国南北方气温和降水气候态变化特征及其对气候检测结果的影响

利用1961-2012年中国区域1353个站的年平均气温和年降水资料,分析南方和北方4种气候态的变化特征,并探索气候态的改变对南方和北方气候检测的影响。结果表明：气候变暖对气候态的影响较为明显,气候态的改变会使得南北方气候分析结果发生改变。北方近52年来年平均气温的升温趋势较明显,南方升温趋势较弱,南北方在I态、II态和III态下的年平均气温均呈现一致的增加趋势,但北方比南方升温更快。南北方年降水量的历年变化差异较大,北方年降水量呈现弱的“降-升-降-升”变化趋势,南方年降水量的历年变化较大,多项式趋势线呈“2峰3谷”。气候态的改变使得北方和南方的气温和降水等级均向着高等级移动,北方气温等级的变化受气候态的影响比南方更明显。     

我国现代气候业务现状及未来发展趋势

从气候监测诊断、气候预测、气候系统模式、气候评价与灾害风险管理、气候变化业务和气候业务平台等角度,系统概述了我国现代气候业务现状。提出了以气候监测和动力学诊断为基础,以提升气候服务、气候风险管理和应对气候变化能力为目标,以发展客观化气候预测技术和定量化气候评估方法为核心的现代气候业务概念。分析了国际气候业务发展趋势及我国气候业务的差距,明确了加强气候系统基本变量监测、提高气候系统模式分辨率和改进物理过程、发展第2代短期气候预测系统、研发气象灾害风险评估方法并建立中国气候服务系统 (CFCS) 等发展任务。     

中国近百年气候变化的自然原因讨论

本文分析了近百年来中国气候变化的概况,讨论了影响中国气候变化的自然因素大气环流和海温,此外还叙述了有关大气气溶胶、大气污染等人为因素对中国气候变化影响的研究进展。结果指出:北极涛动、东亚季风这两个大气环流因素对中国气候异常变化有至关重要的作用,同时El Nino和La Nina事件和太平洋年代际振荡的海表温度异常变化也对中国气候产生了一定的影响。但是有关大气气溶胶和大气污染物对中国气候的影响作用还有待于进一步研究,自然原因仍然是影响中国气候变化的主要原因。     

年代际气候变化研究

概括的介绍了中国科学家近几年在年代际气候变化方面的研究进展,包括中国气候的年代际变化特征,北大西洋涛动(NAO)和北太平洋涛动(NPO)与中国年代际气候变化的关系,北太平洋海面温度(SST)年代际模及其影响,大气环流系统的年代际变化以及气候突变问题.     

20世纪中国气候变暖的归因分析

Progress in the attribution of climate warming in China for the 20th century is summarized. Three sets of climate model experiments including both coupled and uncoupled runs have been used in the attribution analyses. Comparison of climate model results with the observations proves that in the 20th century, especially in the recent half century, climate warming in China is closely related to the increasing of the anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, while sulfate aerosol should also have contributions. When both external forcing and natural forcing agents are prescribed, coupled climate models have better results in producing the observed variation of temperature in China. The role of oceanic forcing is also emphasized in the attribution analyses. The observed climate warming of China in the 1920s could not be reproduced in any set of climate model simulations.     

MM5 Simulations of the China Regional Climate During the Mid-Holocene

Using a regional climate model MM5 nested with an atmospheric global climate model CCM3, a series of simulations and sensitivity experiments have been performed to investigate responses of the mid-Holocene climate to different factors over China. Model simulations of the mid-Holocene climate change, especially the precipitation change, are in good agreement with the geologic records. Model results show that relative to the present day (PD) climate, the temperature over China increased in the mid-Holocene, and the increase in summer is more than that in winter. The summer monsoon strengthened over the eastern China north of 30°N, and the winter monsoon weakened over the whole eastern China; the precipitation increased over the west part of China, North China, and Northeast China, and decreased over the south part of China.The sensitive experiments indicate that changes in the global climate (large-scale circulation background),vegetation, earth orbital parameter, and CO2 concentration led to the mid-Holocene climate change relative to the PD climate, and changes in precipitation, temperature and wind fields were mainly affected by change of the large-scale circulation background, especially with its effect on precipitation exceeding 50%. Changes in vegetation resulted in increasing of temperature in both winter and summer over China, especially over eastern China; furthermore, its effect on precipitation in North China accounts for 25% of the total change.Change in the orbital parameter produced the larger seasonal variation of solar radiation in the mid-Holocene than the PD, which resulted in declining of temperature in winter and increasing in summer; and also had an important effect on precipitation with an effect equivalent to vegetation in Northeast China and North China. During the mid-Holocene, CO2 content was only 280×10-6, which reduced temperature in a very small magnitude. Therefore, factors affecting the mid-Holocene climate change over China from strong to weak are large-scale circulation pattern, vegetation, earth orbital parameter, and CO2 concentration.     

气候变化对中国农业生产影响研究展望

综述了气候变化背景下中国农业气候资源、农业气象灾害(干旱、洪涝、高温热浪、低温灾害)和农业病虫害的变化趋势与规律,从农业生产潜力变化、作物种植制度变化和作物品质变化等方面阐明了气候变化对中国农业生产的影响事实,分析了气候变化对中国农业生产的可能影响和中国农业生产适应气候变化的对策措施。在此基础上,针对气候变化背景下中国气候资源的时空分布特点及农业生产出现的新情况、新问题,指出了当前中国关于气候变化对农业影响研究存在的不足,提出了未来气候变化对中国农业生产影响研究需要重视的方面,为确保气候变化背景下中国的农业生产安全及粮食安全提供决策支持。     

SOME ADVANCES IN CLIMATE WARMING IMPACT RESEARCH IN CHINA SINCE 1990

Increasing the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will strengthen the naturalgreenhouse effect,which could lead to global climate warming and more other changes.China is alargely agricultural country with a large size of population and the relative shortages of farminglands and water resources,thus increasing the importance of climate warming for national economydevelopment.Therefore,Chinese government and scientists have paid great attention to theimpact-assessment of climate warming on national economy in China,especially during the past 10years.This presentation will briefly describe some major issues of climate warming impact researchon national vegetation,agriculture,forest,water resources,energy use and regional sea level forChina,etc.As a result,all climate change scenarios derived by GCMs suggest a substantial change in thecharacteristic natural vegetation types.It is also shown that comparing with the distributionsimulated under the normal time period 1951—1980 as the present climate,by 2050 large changesin cropping systems would occur almost everywhere in China.Climate warming would lead toincrease cropping diversification and multiplication.Unfortunately,the possible net balancebetween precipitation and evapotranspiration would be negative and it would lead to reduce thegrain production in China significantly due to enhanced moisture stress in soil.The most evidentinfluence of climate warming on water resources would happen in Huanghe-Huaihe-Haihe Basin andthe water supply-demand deficit would be substantially enhanced in this area.And also,a warmerclimate for China will alter the energy requirement for domestic heating and cooling,that is,reduce energy use for heating in northern China and increase energy consumption for cooling insouthern China.