四维变分同化和集合平方根滤波联合反演土壤湿度廓线的研究

提出将集合平方根滤波（EnSRF）估计的预报误差协方差用于四维变分（4DVAR）的同化方案（文中称混合四维变分同化方法,简称混合方法）来反演土壤湿度廓线,该方法由两个同化时段构成: 第一时段为EnSRF,第二时段为4DVAR,此种组合可以充分发挥每一同化方法的优势。通过同化表层土壤湿度观测反演土壤湿度廓线这一理想试验来验证方法的可行性,并与EnSRF和4DVAR的反演结果进行比较,结果表明, 混合方法反演的分析时刻土壤湿度廓线都优于EnSRF和4DVAR的结果。与此同时,为了克服小样本在估算背景场误差协方差矩阵时出现的虚假相关对反演的干扰, 提出在原有协方差矩阵中加入具有高斯指数函数成分来降低其影响;与修正前结果相比,反演的中下层（地下34～100 cm） 土壤湿度的均方根误差从0.036 cm3/cm3降到0.016 cm3/cm3, 降幅为55.6%, 更重要的是大大降低了部分深度处反演土壤湿度的误差, 如地下90 cm处误差从0.085 cm3/cm3降到0.024 cm3/cm3, 降幅达71.8%。     

基于神经网络算法的Sentinel-1和Sentinel-2遥感数据联合反演土壤湿度研究

以西班牙萨拉曼卡地区为研究区域,联合Sentinel-1后向散射系数和入射角信息、Sentinel-2光学数据提取的植被指数以及地面实测数据,构建了BP神经网络土壤湿度反演模型,并将该模型应用于试验区土壤湿度反演。结果表明:1)基于Sentinel-1卫星VV和VH极化雷达后向散射系数、雷达入射角和Sentinel-2植被指数数据构建的BP神经网络土壤湿度反演模型,能够实现对该地区土壤湿度高精度反演;2)在光学与微波数据联合反演植被覆盖区土壤湿度中,Sentinel-2的NDVI、NDWI1和NDWI2指数都可以用于削弱植被对土壤湿度反演的影响,但基于SWRI1波段的NDWI1能够获得更高精度的土壤湿度反演结果(RMSE为0.049 cm~3/cm~3,ubRMSE为0.048 cm~3/cm~3,Bias为0.008 cm~3/cm~3,r为0.681);3)相比于Sentinel-1 VH极化模式,Sentinel-1 VV极化模式在土壤湿度中表现出更大优势,说明Sentinel-1 VV极化模式更适用于土壤湿度反演。     

中国区域不同深度土壤湿度模拟和评估

利用FY-2静止气象卫星逐小时降水估计产品和地面入射太阳辐射反演产品,利用NCEP/NCAR再分析数据集中的地面气温、湿度、气压和风速数据,构造中国区域高时空分辨率的大气强迫场,驱动CLM3.0陆面模式模拟得到了2005年7月至2010年6月中国区域10 km分辨率的日平均土壤湿度数据集.通过与中国农气观测站土壤湿度数据进行比较分析,结果表明:在0～10 cm和10～20 cm深度上,模式模拟的土壤湿度结果从空间分布和时间变率上均与观测数据有很好的一致性,在70～100 cm深度上,空间分布有较好的一致性,但模式模拟结果的时间变率较小.按照气候特点将中国分为8个区域,分析了区域平均土壤湿度的时间变化规律,中国西北和西南地区有很好的一致性,东北和华北地区次之.     

基于风云三号气象卫星微波亮温资料反演东北地区土壤湿度及其对比分析

土壤湿度在陆面过程中发挥着重要作用,是联系陆地水循环和能量循环的纽带和关键环节。遥感技术可以实时地对土壤湿度进行长期、大区域动态监测,已成为监测土壤湿度的有效手段。本文基于风云三号气象卫星（FY3B）微波亮温资料,利用基于微波能量辐射传输方程的陆面参数反演模型（LPRM）反演了中国东北地区的土壤湿度（FY3B_LPRM）。把反演获得的FY3BLRPM土壤湿度与中国气象局农业气象站土壤湿度观测资料、NCEP和ERA-Interim土壤湿度再分析资料、欧洲空间局多卫星融合ECV（Essential Climate Variable）土壤湿度产品和国家卫星气象中心FY3B官方土壤湿度产品（FY3B_offical）进行了对比分析。结果表明:（1）本文反演的FY3B土壤湿度与农业气象站观测资料有较高的一致性;卫星土壤湿度整体上呈现自西向东逐渐增加的空间变化,与农业气象站观测资料较为一致;在季节变化上,两者高度相关,在大部分地区的相关系数都达到0.7以上。（2）在大兴安岭和东北三省东部等地表相对湿润的地区,FY3B_LPRM土壤湿度与NCEP、ERA-Interim和FY3B_offical土壤湿度呈现较强的负相关;再分析资料和FY3B_offical土壤湿度均无法反映该地区土壤干湿状况的季节性变化,甚至与观测资料呈反位相变化特征。FY3B_LPRM土壤湿度与欧洲空间局研发的多卫星融合ECV土壤湿度产品在绝大多数地区有较好的一致性。本文基于风云三号极轨气象卫星微波亮温反演的土壤湿度资料,可用于干旱监测、数值同化与天气预报、水文水资源等领域。     

2007年5～10月黄土高原陆面能量通量特征研究

在稀疏植被区陆面过程遥感参数化基础上,利用MODIS/500m分辨率的资料反演黄土高原2007年5～10月陆面过程的特征参数。分析得出:(1)受多种气候系统的影响,黄土高原降水、植被分布以及土壤湿度等存在南北、东西差异,导致反照率呈现出从东南到西北部逐渐增加的趋势;5～10月,频率峰值所对应的反照率值呈现出先降低后增加的特征,到7月反照率值达到最低。(2)由于土壤湿度和植被覆盖度空间分布的差异,出现了3种反照率和能量分布型,即宽频低峰型、高频窄峰型和多峰型分布。(3)由于2007年8～10月黄土高原降水量比较充沛,大部分区域的土壤湿度都在60%以上,使得净辐射量、感热通量、潜热通量频率分布比较集中。     

黄土高原土壤湿度对地表能量和大气边界层影响的观测研究

利用黄土高原区域甘肃平凉地区陆面过程与灾害天气观测研究站2016—2017年夏季(6—8月)晴好天气下的观测资料,定量分析了平凉地区土壤湿度在干、中、湿三种不同状况下对地表辐射和地表能量分配及大气边界层的影响,并根据总体变化趋势,将土壤湿度进一步分为干、中区间(0. 158～0. 220 m~3·m~(-3))和中、湿区间(0. 179～0. 325 m~3·m~(-3)),与波文比、感热通量、潜热通量进行相关性分析,从而探究土壤湿度通过影响地表能量分配和大气边界层进而影响降水的可能物理机制。结果表明:(1)土壤湿度变化对反照率影响相对较小,对波文比影响显著,主要是影响感热、潜热变化,即影响地表能量分配过程。随着土壤湿度增加,潜热增大,感热减小,波文比显著降低;土壤湿度变化对地表净辐射影响显著,主要影响净长波辐射变化,随着土壤湿度增加,净短波辐射呈现略微增加,净长波辐射显著增加。(2)土壤湿度分区间分析结果显示,土壤湿度在干、中区间(0. 158～0. 220 m~3·m~(-3))对潜热通量以及边界层高度的影响相比土壤湿度在中、湿区间(0. 179～0. 325 m~3·m~(-3))的影响更大,即土壤偏干情况下,地表通量变化和大气边界层发展更显著。此次观测数据定量分析结果与理论机理较为一致,表明该观测数据的可靠性,可为数值模式在黄土高原区域的模拟提供重要的数据基础。     

基于植被覆盖度-地表温度的深层土壤湿度遥感反演

利用MODIS影像数据,在地表温度和植被覆盖度（Ts／Ft）特征空间基础上反演了江苏省仪征地区2004年5月、9月和11月40cm土壤湿度。反演结果显示,5月土壤湿度值最大,9月次之,11月最小。5月土壤湿度高值区主要位于南部靠近长江沿岸地区和北部谷底平原地区,低值区主要位于中部缓岗丘陵地区。利用实测资料进行模型检验表明,本研究反演出的土壤湿度精度较高,遥感反演的40cm土壤湿度的平均相对误差达7．6％。     

黄土高原土壤湿度变化规律研究

利用黄土高原59个气象站1961—2002年月降水量和29个农业气象观测站从建站到2002年逐年4~10月旬土壤重量含水率资料,分析了黄土高原土壤湿度的地域和时间分布特征以及土壤湿度的变化规律。结果表明:(1)黄土高原4~10月土壤湿度与降水量的地理分布有较好的一致性,两者都从东南向西北减少。由于六盘山和太行山对东南季风的阻挡影响,在陇中和晋中黄土高原出现一条南北向的干舌;(2)采用年降水量和变异系数,结合植被地带,把黄土高原土壤湿度划分为5个气候区域:草原化荒漠带土壤严重失墒区、荒漠草原带土壤严重失墒区、草原带土壤失墒区、森林草原带土壤湿度周期亏缺区、森林带土壤湿度周期亏缺区。前3个气候区位于黄土高原中北部,经雨季之后,土壤水分不能得到有效恢复,土壤经常处于重旱或轻旱状态。后2个气候区位于黄土高原南部,土壤有季节性缺水现象。(3)土壤湿度具有动态变化规律。一般从7月份开始土壤湿度增加,但各区的增湿幅度有差异。(4)土壤湿度与降水呈极显著的正相关,与气温呈不显著的负相关。     

黄河源区土壤湿度升空间尺度研究

利用2011年7月至2012年8月中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院黄河源区玛曲土壤湿度观测网土壤湿度观测数据,对一定精度要求下估计玛曲地区区域尺度土壤湿度最少所需站点个数(the minimal Number of Required Sites,NRS),站点代表性进行研究,并通过比较4种常用升空间尺度方法,寻找最适宜该地区站点数据尺度提升的方案。主要结果如下:(1)在相关系数R≥0.99、土壤湿度均方根偏差RMSD≤0.02 m~3·m~(-3)的精度要求下,5 cm、10 cm深度区域土壤湿度估算所需NRS均为10个;(2)利用时间稳定性方法、滑动相关方法分别获得玛曲地区土壤湿度代表性单站,NST01站为5 cm深度,NST07站和NST02站均为10 cm深度;利用最优站点结合方法(Optimal Combination of Sites,OCS)获得最佳结合站点,NST01、NST02和NST07站为5 cm深度,NST05、NST08和NST13站均为10 cm;(3)线性拟合方法最适于玛曲地区土壤湿度尺度提升,OCS多站结合数据估计区域土壤湿度效果最优,滑动相关单站数据次之;(4)将所得线性拟合关系应用于玛曲土壤湿度观测网2013年7月至2014年7月缺测时间段土壤湿度估计,获得区域尺度的土壤湿度。     

土壤质地改变对CLDAS/Noah-MP土壤湿度模拟的影响研究

陆面模式可以模拟获得高时空分辨率连续的多层土壤湿度,但其精度受到地表参数的影响,土壤质地就是其中之一,本文利用CLDAS-V2.0(中国气象局陆面数据同化系统)驱动Noah-MP模式,开展了其对土壤湿度模拟的影响研究。结果表明,利用中国第二次土壤调查数据制作的中国区土壤质地数据(SNSS)与模式自带土壤质地数据(FAO)模拟的2014年中国区域土壤湿度日均值存在显著差异,0～10cm深度23.2%的区域差异性大于10%,74.9%的区域差异性大于1%;10～40 cm深度20.8%的区域差异性大于10%,69.8%的区域差异性大于1%。从时间序列来看,两组实验模拟结果均能基本反映土壤湿度随时间变化的规律,SNSS在0～10 cm处模拟结果表现更好,但在10～40 cm处出现低估现象。从空间分布分析,使用SNSS土壤质地类型之后,CLDAS/Noah-MP土壤湿度模拟结果与观测值的偏差为负值的区域较多,尤其是10～40 cm深度,大多数区域模拟值均存在低估;与FAO模拟结果比较,SNSS在东南和西南地区0～10 cm和10～40 cm深度的模拟效果有所改进;东北地区0～10 cm深度SNSS的模拟效果好于FAO,但10～40 cm深度的模拟精度两者相差较小。     

LOW-FREQUENCY CIRCULATION AND EXTENDED-RANGE FORECAST IN CONNECTION WITH AUTUMN EXTREME HEAVY RAINFALL PROCESS IN HAINAN

Observed daily precipitation data from the National Meteorological Observatory in Hainan province and daily data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis-2 dataset from 1981 to 2014 are used to analyze the relationship between Hainan extreme heavy rainfall processes in autumn (referred to as EHRPs) and 10–30 d low-frequency circulation. Based on the key low-frequency signals and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) model forecasting products, a dynamical-statistical method is established for the extended-range forecast of EHRPs. The results suggest that EHRPs have a close relationship with the 10–30 d low-frequency oscillation of 850 hPa zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north, and that they basically occur during the trough phase of the low-frequency oscillation of zonal wind. The latitudinal propagation of the low-frequency wave train in the middle-high latitudes and the meridional propagation of the low-frequency wave train along the coast of East Asia contribute to the ‘north high (cold), south low (warm)’ pattern near Hainan Island, which results in the zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north reaching its trough, consequently leading to EHRPs. Considering the link between low-frequency circulation and EHRPs, a low-frequency wave train index (LWTI) is defined and adopted to forecast EHRPs by using NCEP CFSv2 forecasting products. EHRPs are predicted to occur during peak phases of LWTI with value larger than 1 for three or more consecutive forecast days. Hindcast experiments for EHRPs in 2015–2016 indicate that EHRPs can be predicted 8–24 d in advance, with an average period of validity of 16.7 d.     

AN ATTRIBUTION ANALYSIS OF CHANGES IN POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IN THE BEIJING–TIANJIN–HEBEI REGION UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE

Based on the measurements obtained at 64 national meteorological stations in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region between 1970 and 2013, the potential evapotranspiration (ET0) in this region was estimated using the Penman–Monteith equation and its sensitivity to maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), wind speed (Vw), net radiation (Rn) and water vapor pressure (Pwv) was analyzed, respectively. The results are shown as follows. (1) The climatic elements in the BTH region underwent significant changes in the study period. Vw and Rn decreased significantly, whereas Tmin, Tmax and Pwv increased considerably. (2) In the BTH region, ET0 also exhibited a significant decreasing trend, and the sensitivity of ET0 to the climatic elements exhibited seasonal characteristics. Of all the climatic elements, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv in the fall and winter and Rn in the spring and summer. On the annual scale, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv, followed by Rn, Vw, Tmax and Tmin. In addition, the sensitivity coefficient of ET0 with respect to Pwv had a negative value for all the areas, indicating that increases in Pwv can prevent ET0 from increasing. (3) The sensitivity of ET0 to Tmin and Tmax was significantly lower than its sensitivity to other climatic elements. However, increases in temperature can lead to changes in Pwv and Rn. The temperature should be considered the key intrinsic climatic element that has caused the "evaporation paradox" phenomenon in the BTH region.     

ANALYSIS OF “BIMODAL PATTERN” STORM ACTIVITY CHARACTERISTICS OF THE BAY OF BENGAL

Storms that occur at the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are of a bimodal pattern, which is different from that of the other sea areas. By using the NCEP, SST and JTWC data, the causes of the bimodal pattern storm activity of the BoB are diagnosed and analyzed in this paper. The result shows that the seasonal variation of general atmosphere circulation in East Asia has a regulating and controlling impact on the BoB storm activity, and the “bimodal period” of the storm activity corresponds exactly to the seasonal conversion period of atmospheric circulation. The minor wind speed of shear spring and autumn contributed to the storm, which was a crucial factor for the generation and occurrence of the “bimodal pattern” storm activity in the BoB. The analysis on sea surface temperature (SST) shows that the SSTs of all the year around in the BoB area meet the conditions required for the generation of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, the SSTs in the central area of the bay are higher than that of the surrounding areas in spring and autumn, which facilitates the occurrence of a “two-peak” storm activity pattern. The genesis potential index (GPI) quantifies and reflects the environmental conditions for the generation of the BoB storms. For GPI, the intense low-level vortex disturbance in the troposphere and high-humidity atmosphere are the sufficient conditions for storms, while large maximum wind velocity of the ground vortex radius and small vertical wind shear are the necessary conditions of storms.     

CHARACTERISTICS AND TRENDS OF CLIMATIC EXTREMES IN CHINA DURING 1959–2014

The spatial and temporal variations of daily maximum temperature(Tmax), daily minimum temperature(Tmin), daily maximum precipitation(Pmax) and daily maximum wind speed(WSmax) were examined in China using Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method. The results indicated that for China as a whole, Tmax, Tmin and Pmax had significant increasing trends at rates of 0.15℃ per decade, 0.45℃ per decade and 0.58 mm per decade,respectively, while WSmax had decreased significantly at 1.18 m·s~(-1) per decade during 1959—2014. In all regions of China, Tmin increased and WSmax decreased significantly. Spatially, Tmax increased significantly at most of the stations in South China(SC), northwestern North China(NC), northeastern Northeast China(NEC), eastern Northwest China(NWC) and eastern Southwest China(SWC), and the increasing trends were significant in NC, SC, NWC and SWC on the regional average. Tmin increased significantly at most of the stations in China, with notable increase in NEC, northern and southeastern NC and northwestern and eastern NWC. Pmax showed no significant trend at most of the stations in China, and on the regional average it decreased significantly in NC but increased in SC, NWC and the mid-lower Yangtze River valley(YR). WSmax decreased significantly at the vast majority of stations in China, with remarkable decrease in northern NC, northern and central YR, central and southern SC and in parts of central NEC and western NWC. With global climate change and rapidly economic development, China has become more vulnerable to climatic extremes and meteorological disasters, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of climatic extremes,such as environmentally-friendly and low-cost energy production systems and the enhancement of engineering defense measures are necessary for government and social publics.     

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正AIMS AND SCOPE Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters (AOSL) publishes short research letters on all disciplines of the atmosphere sciences and physical oceanography. Contributions from all over the world are welcome.SUBMISSIONAll submitted     

A Brief Introduction to Marine Meteorological Science Experiment Base at Bohe Town,Maoming City,Guangdong Province

<正>With the support of specialized funds for national science institutions,the Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration set up in October 2008 an experiment base for marine meteorology and a number of observation systems for the coastal boundary layer,air-sea flux,marine environmental elements,and basic meteorological elements at Bohe town,Maoming city,Guangdong province,in the northern part of the South China Sea.     

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AIMS AND SCOPE
Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters （AOSL） publishes short research letters on all disciplines of the atmosphere sciences and physical oceanography. Contributions from all over the world are welcome.     

Information for Authors

AIMS AND SCOPE Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters （AOSL） pub- lishes short research letters on all disciplines of the atmos- phere sciences and physical oceanography. Contributions from all over the world are welcome.     

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正AIMS AND SCOPE Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters (AOSL) publishes short research letters on all disciplines of the atmosphere sciences