豫北多时效归一化棉铃虫气象预报模式

按照棉铃虫繁育规律,将棉铃虫周年活动期划分为秋季预蛹期、越冬期、春季羽化期、夏季危害期4个阶段,分阶段选取有昆虫学、统计学意义的气象因子,通过归一化处理和加权组合,组成棉铃虫气象指数,建立多时效、归一化棉铃虫气象预报模式和分析、评价指标。结果显示：气象条件与棉铃虫发生程度密切相关,各时段预报模式的复相关系数达0.7780~0.8780,回代拟合率为96.7%,回归效果极显著。经试报应用,取得较好效果。结论认为：将诸多气象因子作无量纲化处理,不但便于因子间相互组合,还可提高模式的预报精度;将棉铃虫周年繁育期划分为秋季预蛹期、越冬期、春季羽化期、夏季危害期,突出了阶段性特点,分阶段组建预报模式,预报效果较好。对组合因子的生物学意义,有待生物学试验认定。     

棉铃虫的气象预测初探

通过对历史资料的分析研究,寻找出与棉铃虫发生发展有密切关系的气象条件及生物因子,建立各代棉铃虫始发期及发生程度的气象预测模式。对1994、1995年的各代棉铃虫发生情况进行了预测检验,效果良好。1996、1997年投入业务预报服务,预报与实际发生情况相符,为棉铃虫的有效防治提供了科学依据。     

棉铃虫的气明预测初探

通过对历史资料的分析研究,寻找出与棉铃虫发生发展有密切关系的气象条件及生物因子,建立各代棉铃虫始发期及发生程度的气象预测模式,对１９９４、１９９５年的各代棉铃虫发生情况进行了预测检验,效果良好,１９９６、１９９７年投入业务预报服务,预报与实际发生情况相符,为棉铃虫的有效防治提供了科学依据。     

阜康棉铃虫发生程度气象条件分析及预报

根据阜康植保站2001—2011年逐年棉铃虫各主要危害代发生程度和同期气象资料,对棉铃虫发生程度和气象要素的关系进行了研究。结果表明:阜康棉铃虫一年发生3代,危害较重的是2、3代;2月地面极端最高温度是影响棉铃虫发生长期趋势的主要因子;影响阜康2、3代棉铃虫发生发展的中短期主要因子为5月中旬、7月中旬、8月中旬平均气温和7月中旬降水量等。建立了2、3代棉铃虫发生等级的长期和中短期气象预测模型,经拟合检验和应用检验,2、3代棉铃虫发生长期趋势预测拟合率为77%和62%,中短期发生趋势拟合率为85%和92%。     

积雪和冬季气候条件对棉铃虫年发生程度的影响*

为揭示积雪厚度及冬季气候条件对棉铃虫年发生程度的影响,通过对2002—2008年新湖总场棉铃虫发生情况和气象资料进行统计分析,结果表明,积雪厚度与年发生程度呈显著正相关,2月气温和冬季气温与年发生程度呈显著负相关,年发生程度与11月和12月的降水呈正相关,与1月降水呈负相关,偏最小二乘回归法分析表明,12月降水的相对影响率最大为93.7%。这些结果可作为预测棉铃虫年发生程度的气象指标。     

用逐步回归预测棉铃虫发生期和发生量

收集了1973年至2000年的气象，农作物、棉铃虫虫害等196年因子，以运城、汾阳和临汾为山西省代表站，利用最优二分割法把发生量分为10级，5级和不分级3种情况；使用逐步回归计算了219个模型，从中选出27个棉铃虫二、三代发生期，发生量最优模型，在农气服务中应用，预报准确率为95％，效果良好。     

高青县二代棉铃虫发生的气象条件分析

通过对二代棉铃虫的连续调查观测,得出高青县二代棉铃虫初见卵期在6月16日前后,卵高峰期在6月下旬,结束期7月上旬,总卵期25天左右.在这段时间应采取有效措施,防止二代棉铃虫发生。同时还发现二代棉铃虫与气象条件关系密切,除与温度、湿度有关外,还与降水有关,6月上旬降水日少,6月中旬—7月上旬降水多且持续时间长,是造成二代棉铃虫大发生的一个重要原因。     

山西省棉铃虫害发生发展的农业气象条件初探

选择了晋南预报区和晋中预报区代表站，在广泛收集资料的基础上，从山西省棉铃虫发生危害典型年份的气象条件分析入手，找出了主害代棉铃虫发生级别的农业气象指标，为及时防治棉铃虫提供依据。     

酒泉市棉花病虫害发生规律与气象条件的初步分析

利用敦煌、安西、金塔三地气象和病虫害资料,应用农业气象中的统计方法,分析了棉花病虫繁殖危害与气象条件的关系。结论是：影响棉花产量及品质的主要虫害是棉蚜、棉铃虫、棉红蜘蛛;影响虫害繁殖的主要气象因子是温度、湿度、降水等。可以通过采取生态措施和工程措施改善病虫害对棉花的威胁程度。     

“气候变化背景下积雪对棉铃虫越冬蛹的影响研究”项目

<正>一、项目背景2017年3月国家自然科学基金面上项目"气候变化背景下积雪对棉铃虫越冬蛹的影响研究"通过了国家自然基金委的验收。该项目历时4年,圆满完成了项目预定的任务。棉铃虫的生长发育受天气因素的影响较大,冬季北方棉区常常被积雪覆盖,明确气候变化条件下积雪状况对棉铃虫越冬蛹的影响对农事生产活动意义重大。项目组在2012-2016年利用气象和虫害历史资料进行了越冬蛹发育的相关分析,并在田间进行了在不同土壤深度进行不同梯度的增温、增雪实验,通过监测积雪内部及其覆盖下土壤不同深     

CHARACTERISTICS AND TRENDS OF CLIMATIC EXTREMES IN CHINA DURING 1959–2014

The spatial and temporal variations of daily maximum temperature(Tmax), daily minimum temperature(Tmin), daily maximum precipitation(Pmax) and daily maximum wind speed(WSmax) were examined in China using Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method. The results indicated that for China as a whole, Tmax, Tmin and Pmax had significant increasing trends at rates of 0.15℃ per decade, 0.45℃ per decade and 0.58 mm per decade,respectively, while WSmax had decreased significantly at 1.18 m·s~(-1) per decade during 1959—2014. In all regions of China, Tmin increased and WSmax decreased significantly. Spatially, Tmax increased significantly at most of the stations in South China(SC), northwestern North China(NC), northeastern Northeast China(NEC), eastern Northwest China(NWC) and eastern Southwest China(SWC), and the increasing trends were significant in NC, SC, NWC and SWC on the regional average. Tmin increased significantly at most of the stations in China, with notable increase in NEC, northern and southeastern NC and northwestern and eastern NWC. Pmax showed no significant trend at most of the stations in China, and on the regional average it decreased significantly in NC but increased in SC, NWC and the mid-lower Yangtze River valley(YR). WSmax decreased significantly at the vast majority of stations in China, with remarkable decrease in northern NC, northern and central YR, central and southern SC and in parts of central NEC and western NWC. With global climate change and rapidly economic development, China has become more vulnerable to climatic extremes and meteorological disasters, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of climatic extremes,such as environmentally-friendly and low-cost energy production systems and the enhancement of engineering defense measures are necessary for government and social publics.     

LOW-FREQUENCY CIRCULATION AND EXTENDED-RANGE FORECAST IN CONNECTION WITH AUTUMN EXTREME HEAVY RAINFALL PROCESS IN HAINAN

Observed daily precipitation data from the National Meteorological Observatory in Hainan province and daily data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis-2 dataset from 1981 to 2014 are used to analyze the relationship between Hainan extreme heavy rainfall processes in autumn (referred to as EHRPs) and 10–30 d low-frequency circulation. Based on the key low-frequency signals and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) model forecasting products, a dynamical-statistical method is established for the extended-range forecast of EHRPs. The results suggest that EHRPs have a close relationship with the 10–30 d low-frequency oscillation of 850 hPa zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north, and that they basically occur during the trough phase of the low-frequency oscillation of zonal wind. The latitudinal propagation of the low-frequency wave train in the middle-high latitudes and the meridional propagation of the low-frequency wave train along the coast of East Asia contribute to the ‘north high (cold), south low (warm)’ pattern near Hainan Island, which results in the zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north reaching its trough, consequently leading to EHRPs. Considering the link between low-frequency circulation and EHRPs, a low-frequency wave train index (LWTI) is defined and adopted to forecast EHRPs by using NCEP CFSv2 forecasting products. EHRPs are predicted to occur during peak phases of LWTI with value larger than 1 for three or more consecutive forecast days. Hindcast experiments for EHRPs in 2015–2016 indicate that EHRPs can be predicted 8–24 d in advance, with an average period of validity of 16.7 d.     

AN ATTRIBUTION ANALYSIS OF CHANGES IN POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IN THE BEIJING–TIANJIN–HEBEI REGION UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE

Based on the measurements obtained at 64 national meteorological stations in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region between 1970 and 2013, the potential evapotranspiration (ET0) in this region was estimated using the Penman–Monteith equation and its sensitivity to maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), wind speed (Vw), net radiation (Rn) and water vapor pressure (Pwv) was analyzed, respectively. The results are shown as follows. (1) The climatic elements in the BTH region underwent significant changes in the study period. Vw and Rn decreased significantly, whereas Tmin, Tmax and Pwv increased considerably. (2) In the BTH region, ET0 also exhibited a significant decreasing trend, and the sensitivity of ET0 to the climatic elements exhibited seasonal characteristics. Of all the climatic elements, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv in the fall and winter and Rn in the spring and summer. On the annual scale, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv, followed by Rn, Vw, Tmax and Tmin. In addition, the sensitivity coefficient of ET0 with respect to Pwv had a negative value for all the areas, indicating that increases in Pwv can prevent ET0 from increasing. (3) The sensitivity of ET0 to Tmin and Tmax was significantly lower than its sensitivity to other climatic elements. However, increases in temperature can lead to changes in Pwv and Rn. The temperature should be considered the key intrinsic climatic element that has caused the "evaporation paradox" phenomenon in the BTH region.     

ANALYSIS OF “BIMODAL PATTERN” STORM ACTIVITY CHARACTERISTICS OF THE BAY OF BENGAL

Storms that occur at the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are of a bimodal pattern, which is different from that of the other sea areas. By using the NCEP, SST and JTWC data, the causes of the bimodal pattern storm activity of the BoB are diagnosed and analyzed in this paper. The result shows that the seasonal variation of general atmosphere circulation in East Asia has a regulating and controlling impact on the BoB storm activity, and the “bimodal period” of the storm activity corresponds exactly to the seasonal conversion period of atmospheric circulation. The minor wind speed of shear spring and autumn contributed to the storm, which was a crucial factor for the generation and occurrence of the “bimodal pattern” storm activity in the BoB. The analysis on sea surface temperature (SST) shows that the SSTs of all the year around in the BoB area meet the conditions required for the generation of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, the SSTs in the central area of the bay are higher than that of the surrounding areas in spring and autumn, which facilitates the occurrence of a “two-peak” storm activity pattern. The genesis potential index (GPI) quantifies and reflects the environmental conditions for the generation of the BoB storms. For GPI, the intense low-level vortex disturbance in the troposphere and high-humidity atmosphere are the sufficient conditions for storms, while large maximum wind velocity of the ground vortex radius and small vertical wind shear are the necessary conditions of storms.     

Revisiting the Concentration Observations and Source Apportionment of Atmospheric Ammonia

正While China’s Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan on particulate matter since 2013 has reduced sulfate significantly, aerosol ammonium nitrate remains high in East China. As the high nitrate abundances are strongly linked with ammonia, reducing ammonia emissions is becoming increasingly important to improve the air quality of China. Although satellite data provide evidence of substantial increases in atmospheric ammonia concentrations over major agricultural regions, long-term surface observation of ammonia concentrations are sparse. In addition, there is still no consensus on     

Information for Authors

正AIMS AND SCOPE Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters (AOSL) publishes short research letters on all disciplines of the atmosphere sciences and physical oceanography. Contributions from all over the world are welcome.SUBMISSIONAll submitted     

A Brief Introduction to Marine Meteorological Science Experiment Base at Bohe Town,Maoming City,Guangdong Province

<正>With the support of specialized funds for national science institutions,the Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration set up in October 2008 an experiment base for marine meteorology and a number of observation systems for the coastal boundary layer,air-sea flux,marine environmental elements,and basic meteorological elements at Bohe town,Maoming city,Guangdong province,in the northern part of the South China Sea.     

Information for Authors

AIMS AND SCOPE
Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters （AOSL） publishes short research letters on all disciplines of the atmosphere sciences and physical oceanography. Contributions from all over the world are welcome.     

Information for Authors

AIMS AND SCOPE Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters （AOSL） pub- lishes short research letters on all disciplines of the atmos- phere sciences and physical oceanography. Contributions from all over the world are welcome.