L波段高空探测系统业务软件改进探讨

根据L波段高空探测系统现用V3．10版软件在实际工作中的应用情况,把与高空气象探测规范不相符以及业务软件在实际应用中存在的一些问题提出来,以便更加规范业务软件和高空质量考核办法,加快高空探测业务进一步完善,供业务软件开发者和高空管理人员参考。     

地面测报错情实例分析及防范措施

随着自动气象站的应用,地面测报工作出错的概率明显减小。但由于自动气象站故障和台站观测人员对观测规范和技术规定理解不透彻、责任心不强等原因,造成地面测报错情时有发生。根据《自动气象站测报质量考核办法》,结合工作实践及业务检查中发现的测报错情典型实例,     

学习新规范第十九章的体会

云是天气的征兆,作为地面气象观测工作者,每天定时与不定时监视着它的演变进行观测记载,特别是新规范中十九章的三种云(系统云、指示云、地方性云)无论是观测的深度或记录的细致,远远超过已往规范的要求,并通过实践的检验,对提高天气预报质量收到了效果。群众测天,多数看天老农把系统云、指示云、地方性云的变化作为测天的依据。从观测到使用来说,三种云的价值非小,可是无论是五十年代的《地面气象观测暂行规范》或六十年代到七十年代的《地面气象观测规范》都没有成为条文纳入。这不足为奇,刚好说明群众的智慧通过实践的检验在新规范中闪耀金光,在科学春天的阳光普照下,科学的东西终归被人们所揭示和利用。     

新《地面气象观测规范》的学习应用

中国气象局颁发了新《地面气象观测规范》(下称新《规范》),并于2004年1月1日执行,如何与原《地面气象观测规范》(下称原《规范》)对照应用,保证新《规范》的正确实施。本文结合青海地面气象测报和自动气象站业务工作实际,比较详细地叙述了《地面气象观测规范》主要的异同之处,供同行们在实际工作中参考。     

学习新“规范”一些问题的解答

在省新《地面气象观测规范》学习讨论会中,与会同志提出的一些问题,我们以新“规范”有关技术规定为依据,经过讨论,初步统一了认识,现将有关问题综述于后,供学习、执行新“规范”时参考。这些认识不一定完全正确,主要还应以新“规范”及今后中央气象局和省局的正式文件为准。     

参加新《地面气象观测规范》编写随感

新《地面气象观测规范》(以下简称新《规范》,于一九八○年元月一日起,在全国正式执行。在新《规范》开始执行之际,回忆参加新《规范》改编情况,有不少感想。气象观测是素取第一性气象资料的工作,是整个气象工作的基础之一,也是每个气象台站的基本任务之一。我国气象观测规范开始是照抄苏联的,以后结合我国     

认真学习新“规范” 努力提高测报质量

我国广大气象工作人员,很早盼望有一部适合我国特点的新《地面气象观测规范》,这个愿望在粉碎“四人帮”以后的今天终于实现了。中央气象局决定,明年元月一日正式开始,在全国执行经过重大改革的新《地面气象观测规范》,这是气象部门的一件大事。抓好新“规范”的学习,抓好新“规范”执行前的准备工作,是摆在我省气象系统各级领导和广大气象工作人员面前的一项十分紧迫和重要的任务,也是气象台站下半年的重点工作。     

浅谈地面新规范的学习要点

2003年修订的《地面气象观测规范》是在1979年版的基础上修订编制的。其结构层次分明,内容范围广,概念、定义和要求明确,既适用人工观测,也适用探测现代化、自动化发展的要求。由于新旧规范有一定的连续性,在学习中应从其编制原则出发,重点放在新增加及有更改的内容上,对掌握和理解新规范的主要技术要点总结出以下几个方面：     

《地面气象观测规范》的新规定

由中央气象局编制的新版《地面气象观测规范》(简称“新规范”),从1980年起执行。为便于广大观测人员及有关部门及时掌握和执行,我们以四川省气象局满在鑫、徐家候、薛民和等同志编写的新旧规范对照表为基础,将新规范规定的主要内容介绍于下(部分条文加注了旧规定)。     

试谈“新规范”的一些特点

期望已久的新版《地面气象观测规范》(以下简称新规范)与我们见面了,初学之后,感到十分高兴。下面仅以“天气现象”一章为例,谈谈自己对新规范的特点的一些认识。 我们认为,新规范的编写体现了简明易懂,从实际出发和合情合理三个特点。 一、简明易懂。《规范》是气象台站从事地面气象观测工作的业务规则和技术规定。这就是说,规范是带有法规性质的,是从事某项工作的章程,是预先公布的规则和行动的标准。各种各样的规定、方法和要求必须写得力求准确、清楚,便于掌握。天气现象的观测包括那些内容呢?旧规范中虽然把天气现象分成了6类46种,但缺乏应有的定义,使观测人员在一定     

河南省新一代天气雷达业务质量考核管理系统的设计与实施

雷达业务质量的考核对于提升新一代天气雷达的业务运行质量起着重要作用,业务质量的好坏直接影响雷达灾害性天气的监测和预警。根据中国气象局雷达业务质量考核的规定,以C#语言为基础进行开发,采用BS架构,结合SQL数据库设计并实施了河南省新一代天气雷达业务质量考核管理系统,实现了对新一代天气雷达业务运行状况的自动采集和质量的自动化考核。能及时、客观反映雷达业务质量状况,及时发现雷达业务运行中存在的问题,为管理部门解决问题提供依据,以利于雷达的业务管理科学化、自动化、集约化,节约了人力、物力和财力。     

Anti-fossil fuel norms

Historically, climate governance initiatives and associated scholarship have all but ignored the potential for “global moral norms” to bring about changes in the political conditions for global climate mitigation. This is surprising, since global moral norms are widely employed—as both a mode of governance and an analytical framework—in other domains of global governance, from international security to human rights. However, recent national-level fossil fuel divestments, moratoria on new coal mines and bans on gas fracking, among other developments, suggest the promise of global moral norms prohibiting fossil fuel-related activities, which this article terms “anti-fossil fuel norms” (AFFNs). The article interprets recent examples of such activities in the light of international relations theory on moral norms to provide a general framework for understanding how AFFNs originate, spread and affect states. Specifically, the article argues that there are: (i) influential agents that are originating, and likely to continue to originate, AFFNs; and (ii) international and domestic mechanisms by which AFFNs are likely to spread widely among states and have a significant causal effect on the identity-related considerations or rational calculations of states in the direction of limiting or reducing the production or consumption of fossil fuels. The article also shows that, because they spread and affect state behaviour through mechanisms of “international socialization” and domestic “political mobilization”, AFFNs cohere with and build upon the new paradigm of global climate governance crystallized in the Paris Agreement. AFFNs, the article concludes, represent a promising new frontier in climate governance.     

中国生态环境评价研究进展

生态环境评价是目前生态学领域的研究热点之一,主要包括生态环境质量评价和生态环境服务功能评价两个方面。文章比较全面地介绍了中国近年来在这两个方面的主要研究进展,并提出今后的研究方向是进一步完善生态环境质量评价指标体系,发展生态环境质量定量评价的动态模型,提高生态环境的评价手段,完善生态环境服务功能评价的方法等。     

对基于土地应对气候变化的新认知

2019年8月7日IPCC《气候变化与土地特别报告》决策者摘要获得通过,报告涉及对基于土地应对气候变化不同措施的评估,取得一些新的认知,包括定量评估基于土地的40种综合措施对提高气候变化减缓和适应能力、防治荒漠化和土地退化、增强粮食安全、保护生物多样性和水资源及促进可持续发展的效益,提出在防治荒漠化和土地退化及保障粮食安全过程中提高气候变化适应和减缓能力的措施,评估了实施不同措施的风险、限制、障碍和保障政策等。在措施的分类、气候变化适应的主体对象,以及风险和政策分析等方面还存在一些不足。评估报告结论将对我国建立基于土地的应对气候变化的对策,促进把应对气候变化与防治荒漠化和土地退化、保护生态环境与增强粮食安全工作结合,制定相关政策等方面都具有重要的启示意义。     

Assessing integrated assessments

Integrated assessment of global environmental change is a relatively new field that is beginning to define itself and its forms of practice. As yet, the field has not grappled directly with issues of quality control and assessment of quality, and this work is a first attempt in that direction. We argue that if integrated assessment is to be successful in the long run, then building and maintaining credibility via quality control procedures is a necessary condition for realizing its potential. We highlight a number of pitfalls in the practice of integrated assessment, and discuss their causes. We buttress our concerns using examples from both within climate change integrated assessment, and from the history of other similar endeavors. We also provide a number of suggestions that we hope will serve to alleviate some of these pitfalls. For instance, tools, methods, and assumptions from disciplines form archetypes for components in integrated assessment models, and we need to apply greater scrutiny to these archetypes. Further, tools which may be reasonable to use in particular disciplinary, geographical, or temporal contexts may be unsuited to the broader contexts inherent in integrated assessment studies of global environmental change.     

The norms associated with climate change: Understanding social norms through acts of interpersonal activism

A growing body of research points to the role social norms may play in both maintaining carbon intensive lifestyles and soliciting changes towards more sustainable ways of living. However, despite highlighting the importance of pro-environmental social norms, such literature has said far less about the processes by which such norms might develop. We present a new approach to conceptualising social norms that focuses on understanding their dynamics within social interaction, by positioning interpersonal confrontation as a potential mechanism of change. We examine the normative dynamics of environmentalism by comparing the costs of interpersonally confronting climate change disregard with those associated with confronting racism. In two experimental studies, we presented participants with scenarios describing a person confronting (versus not confronting) contentious comments in each domain. We identified social costs to interpersonal confrontation of climate change disregard but not racism, as indicated by reduced ratings of perceived warmth of and closeness to the confronter (Study 1), and this effect was mediated by the perceived morality of the issue in question (Study 2). Our findings highlight how wider social constructions of (im)morality around climate change impact upon social interactions in ways that have important implications for processes of social (and ultimately environmental) change.     

自动雨量站降雨资料质量评估方法研究

利用19种不同型号的自动雨量站2005年6—9月在北京 (54511)、宜昌 (57461) 和南京 (58238) 3站的实测对比观测资料, 进行降雨资料质量评估, 不同的评估方法将会导致评估结果的差异。结果表明:采用自动气象站降雨资料和雨量筒人工定时观测记录作为降雨量参考标准对自动雨量站进行评估时, 由于降雨量参考标准本身存在的不确定性, 或多或少影响了评估结果的准确性。在广泛试验的基础上, 提出了采用基于各自动雨量站观测结果的拟合降雨量作为降雨量参考标准的新思路, 并对拟合降雨量的可行性、适用性以及计算方法进行了详细论述。     

一种新型降水预报评分方法

在目前已有的降水评分办法的基础上，对原有办法存在的弊端进行了有效的改进，使得降水的预报评估与预报服务业务结合更紧密，也更贴近公众的感受。主要介绍了新方法的基本思路、关键技术、实现方法等。评分系统已投入业务运行，成为考核预报员业务水平的重要依据。     

Dependable dynamism: lessons for designing scientific assessment processes in consensus negotiations

Negotiations that involve the use and interpretation of scientific information and assessment are often particularly difficult, especially when the scientific input is uncertain or contested. Parties can exploit this uncertainty in order to stall progress, where they might prefer a very different policy outcome. In addition, scientific input often changes as new research is done and disseminated. In order to facilitate decision-making where science is involved, a number of international environmental agreements have established regimes, as well as assessment processes, that are designed to incorporate new information, review decisions, and modify judgments—that is, they are dynamic or adaptable. However, there is little systematic evaluation by policymakers or academic analysts of the type and qualities of such dynamism that might contribute to effective assessment and regulatory processes, or of whether this lesson is truly applicable across very different environmental issues. Examination of the recent protocol on persistent organic pollutants to the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP), in comparison to LRTAPs two previous protocols on sulfur emissions, offers a way to compare across different types of issues whether and how “adaptable” assessment processes influence consensus negotiations. The results of this comparison indicate that a type of adaptability likely to facilitate decision-making is “dependable dynamism”—the quality of assessment and decision-making processes that allows policymakers with ease to put off particular decisions for addressing in the future, with confidence that issues so put off will indeed be addressed later. The ability to modify such conclusions at a later time facilitates decision-making processes by offering a new dimension of compromise on both scientific assessment and policy decisions, and lowering the threshold of credibility necessary for decision-making.     

IPCC《气候变化与土地特别报告》对陆气相互作用的新认知

IPCC向全球正式发布了其最新的《气候变化与土地特别报告》（SRCCL）,从陆气相互作用、荒漠化、土地退化、粮食安全、综合变化和协同性、可持续土地管理等方面评估气候变化与土地的相互关联。报告是在IPCC 3个工作组共同主导下,首次系统评估气候变化与陆面过程和土地利用/土地管理之间的相关作用。报告的评估结果表明,全球陆地增温幅度接近全球海陆平均值的两倍,气候变化加重了综合土地压力,并严重影响全球粮食安全,而全球很多区域的极端天气气候事件频率/强度持续增加,加重了农业生产的灾害风险和损失。采取行业间和国家间协同一致的行动,通过可持续土地管理,可以有效地适应和减缓气候变化,同时减轻土地退化、荒漠化和粮食安全的压力。