减少发展中国家毁林及森林退化排放(REDD)的各方观点及对策建议

减少发展中国家毁林及森林退化的温室气体排放已成为《联合国气候变化框架公约》谈判的重要议题。从该公约的第十一次缔约方大会(COP11)以来,各缔约国就此议题提出了各自的观点,除在方法学等问题上存在争议外,在激励机制和毁林纳入清洁发展机制(CDM)与否上也存在分歧,巴西、中美洲及非洲的发展中国家希望通过基金的方式获得额外的资金和技术支持,而美国、澳大利亚和欧盟等发达国家却更倾向于CDM市场机制。结合中国森林管理方面的现状,分析了中国在此议题上可能受到的影响并提出了谈判的对策建议。     

Financing REDD in developing countries: a supply and demand analysis

Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) in developing countries has been at the centre of negotiations on a renewed international climate regime. Developing countries have made it clear that their ability to engage in REDD activities would depend on obtaining sufficient and stable funding. Two alternative REDD financing options are examined to find possible ways forward: financing through a future compliance market and financing through a non-offset fund. First, global demand for hypothetical REDD credits is estimated. The demand for REDD credits would be highest with a base year of 1990, using gross—net accounting. The key factors determining demand in this scenario are the emission reduction targets and the allowable cap. A proportion of emission reduction targets available for offsets lower than 15% would fail to generate a sufficient demand for REDD. Also examined is the option of financing REDD through a fund. Indirectly linking the replenishment of a REDD fund to the market is a promising mechanism, but its feasibility depends on political will. The example of overseas development assistance for global health indicates the conditions for possible REDD financing. The best financial approach for REDD would be a flexible REDD mechanism with two tracks: a market track serving as a mitigation option for developed countries, and a fund track serving as a mitigation option for developing countries.     

Forest tenure reform in the age of climate change: Lessons for REDD+

Numerous authors have stressed the importance of guaranteeing and protecting the tenure and human rights of indigenous and other forest-based communities under schemes for reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD, or REDD+); and important international indigenous organizations have spoken out strongly against REDD+. This article examines two specific issues that present risks for local communities: rights to forests and rules for resource use. It draws on the findings of a study conducted by the Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR) on forest tenure reforms in selected countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America from 2006 to 2008. The study underlines the numerous obstacles faced by communities after rights are won, in moving from statutory rights to their implementation and to access to benefits on the ground. It argues that there is currently little reason to expect better results from national policies under REDD+ without binding agreements to protect local rights.     

Creating incentives for avoiding further deforestation: the nested approach

Since 2005, Parties to the UNFCCC have been negotiating policy options for incentivizing reductions of (greenhouse gas) emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) in a future climate regime. Proposals on how to operationalize REDD range from market-based to pure fund-based approaches. Most of the current proposals suggest accounting for REDD at the national level. Accounting for emission reductions and implementing policy reform for curbing deforestation will take time and imply high levels of technical and institutional capacity. Therefore it is essential that developing countries receive sufficient support to implement national REDD programmes. To save time and ensure prompt action in reducing deforestation, a REDD approach is proposed that integrates project-level and subnational REDD schemes into national-level accounting. This ‘nested approach’ can achieve meaningful reductions in GHG emissions from improved forest governance and management, while allowing for an immediate and broad participation by developing countries, civil society and the private sector.     

REDD+ finance in Brazil,Indonesia and Vietnam: Stakeholder perspectives between 2009-2019

Financing REDD+ is complex, due to the need to seek answers not only to the question of who should finance REDD+, but also who should benefit from it. This paper examines the perceptions of REDD+ stakeholders in Brazil, Indonesia and Vietnam on different aspects of financing: who should finance REDD+ and who should receive REDD+ benefits for what. Our findings show these issues are political, driven by economic considerations at national level and – despite the narrative of inclusive, participatory decision making – are largely determined by governments. Lack of finance was thereby not always considered by national policy actors to be the most significant challenge during 2010–2019; rather other issues – like lack of knowledge on REDD+ by relevant actors; ineffective coordination between state agencies, the private sector and civil society; unclear tenure rights; ineffectively addressing the main deforestation drivers; low law enforcement capacity; and unclear benefit-sharing mechanisms – have also been perceived to impede REDD+ implementation and payment distributions.     

Institutional dimensions of the developing REDD+ process in Cameroon

The reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) initiative has emerged in recent years as a mechanism to simultaneously address climate change, biodiversity, and poverty reduction challenges at the margins of tropical forests. Congo Basin countries, including Cameroon, have embraced the opportunities that REDD+ provides, with great expectations. Yet, it needs to be investigated whether the enabling institutional environment, which is required for implementing REDD+, is present. Understanding is still limited on how to build adequate and strong institutional relations that could shape the reforms towards the establishment of efficient emissions reductions schemes. Furthermore, uncertainty remains on the operational mechanisms of REDD+, suggesting that, to catalyse effectiveness, there is a need to come up with a governance model nested in relevant policy frameworks. This study builds on a modified ‘4Is’ framework – Institutions, Interests, Ideas and Information – to analyse REDD+ and explore stakeholders' perceptions on the local forest governance potential. A structural implementation model to optimize the effectiveness of REDD+ is developed. Findings suggest that governments need to review existing policies to take into account participation, local people rights, and information access as a way to stimulate actors' willingness to contribute to emissions reductions and carbon stock increases under REDD+ regimes.     

Avoiding deforestation in Panamanian protected areas: An analysis of protection effectiveness and implications for reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) is likely to be central to a post-Kyoto climate change mitigation agreement. As such, identifying conditions and factors that will shape the success or failure of a reduced deforestation scheme will provide important insights for policy planning. Given that protected areas (PAs) are a cornerstone in forest conservation, we draw on interviews and secondary data to analyze the effects of available PA resources, governance ability, the level of community involvement, and provincial deforestation rates on land-cover change in nine PAs in Panama. Our results illustrate that coupling surveillance measures with greater funding and strong governance are paramount to reducing deforestation. Alone, however, these factors are insufficient for forest protection. We argue that conservation approaches that complement effective surveillance with community participation and equitable benefit sharing will address the wider issues of leakage and permanence.     

What makes a ‘REDD’ country?

Despite remaining uncertainties, Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation in developing countries (REDD) projects are being planned and implemented across the tropics, primarily targeting countries with high forest cover and high deforestation rates. However, there is growing recognition that REDD planning requires a broadened approach; a future REDD mechanism should incentivise emissions reduction in all developing forested countries, and should address critical non-carbon dimensions of REDD implementation—quality of forest governance, conservation priorities, local rights and tenure frameworks, and sub-national project potential. When considering this broader suite of factors, different REDD priorities can emerge, including in countries with low forest cover that would be overlooked by conventional site selection criteria. Using the Philippines as a case study, the paper highlights the importance of an enabling environment to REDD implementation, and presents a more comprehensive and inclusive approach for thinking about what comprises a “REDD country.”     

Reducing emissions from deforestation—The “combined incentives” mechanism and empirical simulations

Despite accounting for 17–25% of anthropogenic emissions, deforestation was not included in the Kyoto Protocol. The UN Convention on Climate Change is considering its inclusion in future agreements and asked its scientific board to study methodological and scientific issues related to positive incentives to reduce emissions from deforestation. Here we present an empirically derived mechanism that offers a mix of incentives to developing countries to reduce emissions from deforestation, conserve and possibly enhance their ecosystem's carbon stocks. We also use recent data to model its effects on the 20 most forested developing countries. Results show that at low CO₂ prices (～US$ 8/t CO₂) a successful mechanism could reduce more than 90% of global deforestation at an annual cost of US$ 30 billion.     

Agricultural and forestry trade drives large share of tropical deforestation emissions

Deforestation, the second largest source of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, is largely driven by expanding forestry and agriculture. However, despite agricultural expansion being increasingly driven by foreign demand, the links between deforestation and foreign demand for agricultural commodities have only been partially mapped. Here we present a pan-tropical quantification of carbon emissions from deforestation associated with the expansion of agriculture and forest plantations, and trace embodied emissions through global supply chains to consumers. We find that in the period 2010–2014, expansion of agriculture and tree plantations into forests across the tropics was associated with net emissions of approximately 2.6 gigatonnes carbon dioxide per year. Cattle and oilseed products account for over half of these emissions. Europe and China are major importers, and for many developed countries, deforestation emissions embodied in imports rival or exceed emissions from domestic agriculture. Depending on the trade model used, 29–39% of deforestation-related emissions were driven by international trade. This is substantially higher than the share of fossil carbon emissions embodied in trade, indicating that efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from land-use change need to consider the role of international demand in driving deforestation. Additionally, we find that deforestation emissions are similar to, or larger than, other emissions in the carbon footprint of key forest-risk commodities. Similarly, deforestation emissions constitute a substantial share (˜15%) of the total carbon footprint of food consumption in EU countries. This highlights the need for consumption-based accounts to include emissions from deforestation, and for the implementation of policy measures that cross these international supply-chains if deforestation emissions are to be effectively reduced.     

CDM potential in the power-generation and energy-intensive industries of China

Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) has emerged as an important carbon governance mechanism. However, forest governance is weak in most REDD+ countries, which undermines efforts to establish REDD+. This study analyses the factors that enable national REDD+ processes in the context of weak governance using a two-step ‘qualitative comparative analysis’ (QCA) of 12 REDD+ countries. Assuming that actor-related factors can be effective only if certain institutional preconditions are met, six factors were divided into two categories that were analysed separately: institutional setting (pressure from forest-resource shortage; forest legislation, policy, and governance; already initiated policy change) and the policy arena (national ownership; transformational coalitions; inclusiveness of the policy process). The factors were analysed to determine their role in efforts to establish comprehensive REDD+ policies that target transformational change. The results reveal path dependencies and institutional stickiness in all the study countries. Only countries already undertaking institutional change have been able to establish REDD+ policies in a relatively short period – but only in the presence of either high pressure from forest-resource shortages or key features of effective forest legislation, policy, and governance. Furthermore, where an enabling institutional setting is in place, the policy arena conditions of national ownership and transformational coalitions are crucial.Policy relevance Although the aim of REDD+ is to provide performance-based payments for emissions reductions, the outcomes in terms of actual emission reductions or co-benefits are not yet observable. Most REDD+ countries are still at the design and implementation stage for policies and measures. Indicators and criteria to measure progress in this phase are required to identify which factors enable or hinder countries' performance in delivering necessary policy change to provide targeted financial incentives to support countries' efforts. This study analyses the factors that shape national REDD+ processes in the context of weak governance using a two-step QCA of 12 REDD+ countries. The results show a set of enabling conditions and characteristics of the policy process under which REDD+ policies can be established. These findings may help guide other countries seeking to formulate REDD+ policies that are likely to deliver efficient, effective, and equitable outcomes.     

The global climate change mitigation strategy REDD: monitoring costs and uncertainties jeopardize economic benefits

REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation) has been suggested as a climate change mitigation strategy that is based on the philosophy to reward countries for reducing their deforestation and forest degradation by financial benefits via the generation of carbon credits. While the potential of REDD has been widely discussed, minor attention has been drawn to the implication of uncertainties and costs associated with the estimation of carbon stock changes. To raise awareness of these issues, we conducted a simulation study for a set of countries that show high to low deforestation rates, which demonstrates that the potential to generate benefits from REDD depends highly on the magnitude of the total error while assessment costs and the price of carbon credits play a minor role. For countries with low deforestation rates REDD is obviously not an option for generating benefits as they would need to implement monitoring systems that are able to estimate carbon stock changes with a total error well below 1 %. Total errors feasible under operational monitoring systems are only sufficient to gain revenues from REDD-regimes under high deforestation rates.     

Building the evidence base for REDD+: Study design and methods for evaluating the impacts of conservation interventions on local well-being

Climate change mitigation in developing countries is increasingly expected to generate co-benefits that help meet sustainable development goals. This has been an expectation and a hotly contested issue in REDD+ (reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation) since its inception. While the core purpose of REDD+ is to reduce carbon emissions, its legitimacy and success also depend on its impacts on local well-being. To effectively safeguard against negative impacts, we need to know whether and which well-being outcomes can be attributed to REDD+. Yet, distinguishing the effects of choosing particular locations for REDD+ from the effects of the interventions themselves remains a challenge. The Global Comparative Study (GCS) on REDD+ employed a quasi-experimental before-after-control-intervention (BACI) study design to address this challenge and evaluate the impacts of 16 REDD+ pilots across the tropics. We find that the GCS approach allows identification of control groups that represent the counterfactual, thereby permitting attribution of outcomes to REDD+. The GCS experience belies many of the common critiques of the BACI design, especially concerns about collecting baseline data on control groups. Our findings encourage and validate the early planning and up-front investments required to evaluate the local impacts of global climate change mitigation efforts with confidence. The stakes are high, both for the global environment and for local populations directly affected by those efforts. The standards for evidence should be concomitantly high.     

Deforestation dynamics and drivers in different forest types in Latin America: Three decades of studies (1980–2010)

Over the last decades there have been a considerable number of deforestation studies in Latin America reporting lower rates compared with other regions; although these studies are either regional or local and do not allow the comparison of the intraregional variability present among countries or forest types. Here, we present the results obtained from a systematic review of 369 articles (published from 1990 to 2014) about deforestation rates for 17 countries and forest types (tropical lowland, tropical montane, tropical and subtropical dry, subtropical temperate and mixed, and Atlantic forests). Drivers identified as direct or indirect causes of deforestation in the literature were also analysed. With an overall annual deforestation rate of −1.14 (±0.092 SE) in the region, we compared the rates per forest type and country. The results indicate that there is a high variability of forest loss rates among countries and forest types. In general, Chile and Argentina presented the highest deforestation rates (−3.28 and −2.31 yearly average, respectively), followed by Ecuador and Paraguay (−2.19 and −1.89 yearly average, respectively). Atlantic forests (−1.62) and tropical montane forests (−1.55) presented the highest deforestation rates for the region. In particular, tropical lowland forests in Ecuador (−2.42) and tropical dry forests in Mexico (−2.88) and Argentina (−2.20) were the most affected. In most countries, the access to markets and agricultural and forest activities are the main causes of deforestation; however, the causes vary according to the forest types. Deforestation measurements focused at different scales and on different forest types will help governments to improve their reports for international initiatives, such as reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) but, more importantly, for developing local policies for the sustainable management of forests and for reducing the deforestation in Latin America.     

How accurately may we project tropical forest-cover change? A validation of a forward-looking baseline for REDD

The Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) mechanism of a future post-2012 global climate-change treaty would aim to give incentive to tropical countries to reduce deforestation and thus forest-carbon emissions. It would do so by crediting tropical countries for reducing deforestation relative to a baseline scenario describing carbon emissions and removals from forest-cover change expected in the absence of REDD+. Defining a credible and accurate baseline is both critical and challenging. One approach considered promising is spatial modelling to project forest-cover change on the basis of historical trends; yet few such projections have been validated at a national scale. We develop and validate a novel GEOMOD projection of forest-cover change in Panama over 2000–2008, based on trends over 1990–2000 and 25 drivers of forest-cover change. Compared with the actual landscape of 2008, our projection is 85.2% accurate at a 100-m pixel resolution. More error is attributable to the location of projected forest (8.6%) than to its area (6.2%). Accuracy was least where forest regeneration predominated (80%), and greatest where deforestation predominated (90%). Despite the sophistication of our projection, it is slightly less accurate than if we had assumed no forest-cover change over 2000–2008. We identify factors limiting projection accuracy, including the complexity of forest-cover change, the spatial variability of forest-carbon density, and the relatively small area of change at the national scale. We conclude that, with the exception of contexts where forest-cover change is significant and straightforward and where forest-carbon density relatively uniform (e.g., agricultural frontiers), spatially projected baselines are of limited value for REDD+ – their accuracy is too limited given their relative lack of transparency. Simpler, relatively coarse scale, retrospective baselines are recommended instead.     

Principles of justice in proposals and policy approaches to avoided deforestation: Towards a post-Kyoto climate agreement

This paper offers a normative analysis of the current negotiations on reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Drawing on existing theories of distributive justice, we seek to determine which interpretations of equity are embodied in the key proposals and policy approaches to REDD in the run up to a post-Kyoto climate agreement. Our analysis indicates that whilst the various proposals are characterised by different and sometimes contradictory notions of equity, it is the ideas that are more consistent with neoliberal concepts of justice that tend to prevail. The result is that despite abiding contestations and controversies, emerging REDD policy solutions for the post-2012 climate regime looks very likely to reflect a commitment to market-based approaches to forest governance. However, whilst such market-based approaches might serve the preferences of powerful players, their effectiveness in terms of forest preservation, the protection of indigenous peoples and sustainable community development remains extremely dubious. On a broader note, our analysis reinforces the growing realization that the international arena is not beyond the pale of moral arguments but rather that the governance of global environmental change implicates elemental ethical questions regarding which ways of life human beings ought to pursue.     

How institutions and beliefs affect environmental discourse: Evidence from an eight-country survey on REDD+

This paper investigates the adoption of discourses on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) across different national contexts. It draws on institutional theories to develop and test a number of hypotheses on the role of shared beliefs and politico-economic institutions in determining the discursive choices of policy actors. The results show that win–win ecological modernization discourse, embraced by powerful government agencies and international actors, dominates national REDD+ policy arenas. This discourse is challenged primarily by a minority reformist civic environmentalist discourse put forward primarily by domestic NGOs. We find evidence that countries with a less democratic political system and large-scale primary sector investments facilitate the adoption of reconciliatory ecological modernization discourse, which may not directly challenge the drivers of deforestation. Policy actors who believe in and are engaged in market-based approaches to REDD+ are much more likely to adopt ecological modernization discourses, compared to policy actors who work on community development and livelihoods issues.     

Creating a global warming implementation regime

This paper proposes a global warming implementation regime which addresses the issues of equity, flexibility, cost minimization, and population growth. Previously proposed international policy instruments, such as country by country targets, carbon taxes, and tradable permits, face major difficulties as stand alone proposals. The key element of the regime proposed here is to combine annual tradable permits which are allocated based on population in a fixed year with a small carbon tax ($5–10/tonne) on emissions in excess of permits. Both permits and carbon taxes are applied to national level governments, which in turn would use whatever mix of policies desired to reduce national emissions. It is suggested that the initial number of permits correspond to total global emissions in the base year; over time, the number of permits could be reduced and the tax rate increased if improved scientific knowledge so dictates. By allocating permits based on population the equity concerns of developing countries are addressed, while taxing emissions in excess of permit holdings removes the rigidity of a quota system and limits resource transfers by effectively capping the permit trading price, which is a major concern of industrialized countries. To accommodate the difficulties of countries which have not yet achieved the demographic transition, the permit allocation scheme could be subject to a one-time adjustment after 10–15 years based on some weighting of the initial and then-current populations. The proposed scheme is based on the premise that there is a large potential for reducing emissions in developed countries or limiting emission increases in developing countries, and the intention is to create competition between national level governments in implementing cost-effective emission reduction.     

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries: revisiting the assumptions

The United Nations Framework on Climate Change (UNFCCC), at its thirteenth meeting in 2005 (COP-11), agreed to start a work program to explore a range of policy approaches and positive incentives for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD). This process was further encouraged in the 2007 COP-13 with the explicit consideration of REDD activities as a means to enhance mitigation action by developing countries in the future. This paper outlines the context of this ongoing political process by reviewing the science indicating that land-use change is a key contributor of greenhouse emissions globally and the assumptions that REDD activities may be competitive—in terms of cost effectiveness—in comparison to other mitigation options. The paper then examines REDD proposals submitted by Parties before COP-13 and identifies key economic, technological, methodological and institutional challenges associated with their implementation. These proposals are discussed in the light of major drivers of deforestation and ongoing efforts to address deforestation. This reveals another set of challenges which, if not taken into account, may undermine REDD effectiveness. The paper aims to aid the policy process and contribute to the best possible design of a REDD framework under the future climate regime.     

Indigenous community benefits from a de-centralized approach to REDD+ in Brazil

Successful efforts of indigenous groups to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries (REDD+) will likely vary with how the initiatives are designed and implemented. Whether REDD+ initiatives are carried out by national governments or decentralized to sub-national or project-level institutions with a nested approach could be of great consequence. I describe the Suruí Forest Carbon Project in Amazonian Brazil, one of the first REDD+ pilot projects implemented with indigenous people in the world. I emphasize (1) how enfranchisement of community members in the policy-planning process, fund management, and carbon baseline establishment increased project reliability and equity, and (2) how the project's quality would have likely been diminished if implemented under a centralized REDD+ scheme.

Policy relevance

This article explores a decentralized REDD+ intervention established in an indigenous land in Brazil. It expands the theoretical discussions on REDD+ governance and highlights how centralized REDD+ programmes are likely to be less effective than project-level interventions assisted by NGOs in terms of social benefits and community engagement. Additionally, the case study described can serve as reference for the design of critical social and technical components of REDD+.