初值对中国东部初夏土壤湿度可预报性影响

土壤湿度是影响天气和气候非常重要的因子之一,但目前针对土壤湿度可预报性的研究报道相对较少。该文在对BCC_CSM模式进行了适合的陆面初始化的条件下,设计了两组在中国东部地区采用不同土壤湿度初值的回报试验研究该地区土壤湿度的可预报性及初值对其可预报性影响问题。试验结果表明:BCC_CSM模式在真实的外场强迫下可以模拟出相对合理的土壤湿度;土壤湿度的可预报性在表层约为3候,随着深度的增加,土壤湿度的可预报性持续时间增加,在中层预报性甚至能达到月尺度以上;初值对于土壤湿度的预报存在影响,在表层影响时间约为2~3候,影响时间随着深度增加;浅层土壤湿度受降水的影响较大,浅层土壤湿度变化滞后降水变化约1~2 d,中层土壤湿度变化与降水变化存在5 d左右的滞后关系。     

T213L31全球中期数值天气预报系统2m温度预报误差源分析

T213L31全球中期数值天气预报系统的2m温度预报存在系统性偏低的问题，对业务预报影响很大，针对这一问题就产生原因对模式系统进行分析定位。经过一系列分析，通过对模式地形高度与观测站地形高度的比较，以及通过采用欧洲中心与国家气象中心的陆面过程初值得到的2m温度的比较，认为2m温度的误差是由于模式地形高度与实际地形高度存在较大差异以及2m温度预报对陆面过程所需的初值如土壤湿度等的敏感而实际采用特定值代替初始场的不科学性造成的。     

半干旱区陆面模式参数对水分循环的敏感性研究

植被覆盖对陆气之间物质和能量交换过程具有极其重要的影响,但植被覆盖对于交换过程的影响因子很多,关系复杂.作者研究了各种植被因子对陆气之间水分循环的作用和相对重要性.首先通过单点NO-AH模式对吉林通榆农田下垫面2004年土壤和边界层各物理量进行模拟,并与观测结果比较和评价,肯定了单点NOAH模式模拟能力.使用这一模式进行敏感试验,将与植被有关的参数分别在其取值范围取较大与较小值,比较水分循环各物理量如土壤湿度、土壤蒸发、植被蒸腾等的变化情况.试验表明在各参数中植被气孔阻抗、根系深度、土壤湿度初值和反照率对水分循环的影响较大,而叶面积指数、粗糙度和冠层阻抗则影响较小.     

不同土壤湿度条件下绿洲边界层特征的敏感性试验

应用NCAR的非静力平衡中尺度数值模式MM5V3．6,设计了三种不同土壤湿度对金塔绿洲边界层的特征影响的敏感性试验。结果表明：土壤灌溉后地表温度和气温升温率较灌溉前有所减小。土壤湿度越大,绿洲温度越低,绿洲的“冷岛效应”越显著。绿洲灌溉后地面感热通量较灌溉前偏低,潜热通量比灌溉前高;土壤湿度越大,这种差异越显著。土壤湿度为0．35时,绿洲能够很好地表现绿洲特性,维持其自身的发展。绿洲边界层高度在灌溉前后有很大的变化。随着土壤湿度的增加,绿洲的边界层高度逐渐降低。这种较低的边界层对绿洲起到了保护作用,它将绿洲的能量与水分保存任较低的边界层中,促进了绿洲的进一步维持和发展。     

Noah-MP陆面模式在东疆黑戈壁的适用性

新疆东部黑戈壁作为气候恶劣、人迹罕至及黑色砾石下垫面的生态脆弱区,陆面过程参数化方案不易确定。利用东疆哈密戈壁陆气相互作用站观测数据集,开展Noah-MP陆面模式离线模拟试验,找出适合戈壁区域的最佳参数化方案,并给出了土壤湿度对戈壁区域陆气热交换的影响。结果表明：（1）针对感热通量、潜热通量、净辐射通量和土壤地表温度均表现为第二种参数化方案组合的模拟误差最小,模式效率最高。（2）模式针对土壤湿度的模拟效果均不好,模式预报土壤湿度偏干,第七种方案的模式效率指数较高。（3）针对土壤10 cm温度,第一种方案虽预报效率指数最高,但误差达1.2 ℃左右,第二种方案是模拟和实测误差最小的一种方案,模式预报结果比实测低0.4 ℃。综上所述,第二种方案在东疆黑戈壁地区的普适性最高。（4）Noah-MP在RMAPS-CA系统中在线耦合后,2 m温度的预报效果整体要优于离线Noah模式。     

土壤湿度年际异常对中国春、夏季气候模拟的影响

基于NCAR大气模式CAM3.1模式,设计了有、无土壤湿度年际异常两组试验对中国区域近40a(1961-2000年)气候进行了模拟。从气候态和年际变率的角度,通过分析两组试验的差值场来探讨土壤湿度年际异常对气候模拟的影响,并初步探讨了影响的可能机制。结果表明:模式模拟的温度和降水对土壤湿度的年际异常非常敏感,土壤湿度的年际变化对中国春夏季气候及其年际变率均有显著影响。当不考虑土壤湿度年际异常时,模式模拟的春夏季平均温度、最高温度、最低温度在我国大范围内降低,春夏季降水在东部大部分地区明显减少,西部增加。而模式模拟的春夏季温度、降水年际变率在中国大部分地区减弱。但当考虑土壤湿度的年际变化,则能在一定程度上提高模式对气候年际变率的模拟能力。在进一步分析表明土壤湿度年际异常时,主要通过改变地表能量通量和环流场,对温度、降水产生影响。当不考虑土壤湿度年际异常时,地表净辐射通量减少,地表温度降低,感热通量减少。感热通量差值场的空间变化和温度差值场的空间变化一致,感热通量对温度有一定影响。而潜热通量差值场的空间变化和降水的差值场的空间变化一致,可见降水受地表潜热通量的影响。土壤湿度年际异常引起的环流场的变化也是导致气候变化的原因之一,地表能量和环流场年际变率的改变对春夏季气候年际变率存在一定影响。     

广州“5·7”局地突发特大暴雨过程的数值可预报性分析

2017年5月6日夜间至7日上午广州地区发生局地特大暴雨,分析表明对流触发与珠江口地区边界层南风增强等因素有密切关系。数值模式预报检验表明,ECMWF集合预报的强降水预报成员在初始条件上具有更显著的辐合上升、水汽和不稳定性条件,而GRAPES区域模式对6日20时初始场分析以及对边界层南风增强过程的预报都更为准确。集合敏感性分析表明,降水预报高敏感区分布与江南地区高压、南海高压以及华南低槽等关键天气系统的相对强度和位置有密切关系;降水对温度的预报敏感区主要位于关键区边界层内,近地面层到边界层底部温度越高、边界层顶越冷,越有利于对流不稳定性增强,有利于关键区内对流发展。通过3组探空预报试验分析了对流尺度降水预报关于初值热扰动、低层风场扰动和降水物理方案的敏感性,结果表明在特定环境条件下,与低层风场扰动试验组对比,降水预报对于初始热力扰动更为敏感;降水微物理方案预报试验表明,在小成员数的集合预报中物理方案扰动能够有效增大预报离散度。以上结果表明,分析对流尺度集合预报中各类初值扰动、物理扰动导致的预报变化和预报敏感性,能够更为全面地估计暖季中小尺度强降水事件的可预报性。     

一次强降水模拟中土壤湿度初值的影响研究

为了分析WRFV3.3.1模式中土壤湿度初值对降水模拟的影响,在4个陆面方案的分析对比基础上,采用中国区域土壤湿度同化系统（CLSMDAS）输出的土壤湿度替换模式初始场中的土壤湿度,对2010年6月19日江西出现的一次强降水过程进行模拟,分析改进后的土壤湿度初值对模式模拟降水的影响。结果表明,耦合Noah方案的模拟结果要优于SLAB、RUC、PX方案;通过对比试验发现CLSMDAS输出的土壤湿度初始条件下的模拟结果比NCEP资料的模拟结果更接近于实况,能够很好地模拟出24 h累积降水的范围与强度,对应地表能量的响应也更为明显,表现出很好的区域波动性,能够捕捉到细节降水信息,且统计检验结果中各量级降水的TS评分基本都要高于NCEP土壤湿度初值条件下的结果,空报率、漏报率和预报偏差进一步减小,说明准确的土壤湿度初值能够提高模式的模拟预报能力。     

黄土高原土壤湿度对地表能量和大气边界层影响的观测研究

利用黄土高原区域甘肃平凉地区陆面过程与灾害天气观测研究站2016—2017年夏季(6—8月)晴好天气下的观测资料,定量分析了平凉地区土壤湿度在干、中、湿三种不同状况下对地表辐射和地表能量分配及大气边界层的影响,并根据总体变化趋势,将土壤湿度进一步分为干、中区间(0. 158～0. 220 m~3·m~(-3))和中、湿区间(0. 179～0. 325 m~3·m~(-3)),与波文比、感热通量、潜热通量进行相关性分析,从而探究土壤湿度通过影响地表能量分配和大气边界层进而影响降水的可能物理机制。结果表明:(1)土壤湿度变化对反照率影响相对较小,对波文比影响显著,主要是影响感热、潜热变化,即影响地表能量分配过程。随着土壤湿度增加,潜热增大,感热减小,波文比显著降低;土壤湿度变化对地表净辐射影响显著,主要影响净长波辐射变化,随着土壤湿度增加,净短波辐射呈现略微增加,净长波辐射显著增加。(2)土壤湿度分区间分析结果显示,土壤湿度在干、中区间(0. 158～0. 220 m~3·m~(-3))对潜热通量以及边界层高度的影响相比土壤湿度在中、湿区间(0. 179～0. 325 m~3·m~(-3))的影响更大,即土壤偏干情况下,地表通量变化和大气边界层发展更显著。此次观测数据定量分析结果与理论机理较为一致,表明该观测数据的可靠性,可为数值模式在黄土高原区域的模拟提供重要的数据基础。     

温江站夏季大气边界层垂直结构特征

利用温江观测站边界层塔和探空获取的观测资料,从地表物理量的日变化、边界层的垂直结构及逐日变化这些方面分析该站夏季边界层特征,得到以下结论:(1)地表各物理量都具有明显的日变化特征,呈现一峰一谷的演变状态,其中地表热通量、动量通量、气温以及风速的峰值皆出现在午后,谷值出现在凌晨,湿度与气温日变化是反位相的。(2)近地层低层大气气温在早晚时段,随高度的增加而上升,呈逆温状态;午间时段随高度的增加而下降。9 m以下大气在午后的比湿梯度最大。风速值随着高度的增高而增大,风切变随着高度的增高而减小。(3)探空观测的边界层垂直结构显示:夏季温江站早晚边界层大气层结稳定,而午后表现为典型的混合边界层特征。大气温/湿度差异随高度增长而降低,各个时次温/湿度的差异都主要集中边界层低层,越靠近地面大气温/湿度差异越突出。8:00的温度最低,14:00最高。14:00的大气比湿最小,2:00和20:00较大。近地层风速随高度增长较快,在离地2~300 m左右高度达到一个极值,4个时次的风速差异不大。(4)地表温度、短波辐射、感热通量对边界层的高度和降水都有一定的影响。     

成都精细下垫面信息对城市气象影响的模拟试验

为了提高成都市精细化天气预报水平,使用成都地区精细下垫面土地利用资料,在WRF中耦合了单层城市冠层模式,对2008年7月6 日晴空背景下的成都城市气象特征进行了模拟,并和使用旧土地利用资料、slab模式的模拟结果进行了对比分析.模拟结果表明城区因为不透水下垫面的增加,使得地表蒸发和地表水汽通量显著减小,潜热通量减小,感...     

Study on Physical Mechanism of Influence on Atmospheric Boundary Layer Depth in the Arid Regions of Northwest China

Using the sounding data of wind, temperature, and humidity in the boundary layer and micrometeorological data on the earth's surface observed in the same period in Dunhuang arid region of Northwest China,this paper researches characteristics of potential temperature, wind, and humidity profiles, confirms the structure and depth of thermodynamic boundary layer in Dunhuang region, and analyzses the relationship of depth of thermodynamic boundary layer with surface radiation, buoyancy flux as well as wind speed and wind direction shear in the boundary layer. The results show that the maximum depth of diurnal convective boundary layer is basically above 2000 m during the observational period, many times even in excess of 3000 m and sometimes up to 4000 m; the depth of nocturnal stable boundary layer basically maintains within a range of 1000-1500 m. As a whole, the depth of atmospheric boundary layer is obviously bigger than those results observed in other regions before. By analyzing, a preliminary judgement is that the depth of atmospheric thermodynamic boundary layer in Dunhuang region may relate to local especial radiation characteristics, surface properties (soil moisture content and heat capacity) as well as wind velocity shear of boundary layer, and these properties have formed strong buoyancy flux and dynamic forcing in a local region which are fundamental causes for producing a super deep atmospheric boundary layer.     

沙漠土壤和大气边界层中水热交换和传输的数值模拟研究

为了解沙漠土壤和大气边界层系统中的水分和能量的交换和传输特征，本文发展了一个一维耦合模式，其中包括一个同时考虑土壤中液态水及气态水运动的沙漠土壤模式和一个基于非局地过渡湍流闭合方案的大气边界层模式。用这一耦合模式对沙漠土壤和大气界面的水热交换及沙漠土壤和大气边界层中的水热输送过程进行了模拟，同时与ＨＥＩＦＥ（ＨｅｉｈｅＲｉｖｅｒＢａｓｉｎＦｉｅｌｄＥｘｐｅｒｉｍｅｎｔ）沙漠站的有关资料进行了对比。模拟结果表明约６５％的净辐射能以感热（５０％）和潜热（１５％）的形式提供大气，约３５％的净辐射能以地热流量的形式进入土壤。土壤表层２ｃｍ的范围表现为水热传输的活跃层，水分和温度廓线呈现剧烈的日变化。模拟结果同时表明沙漠土壤中水分传输以气态水为主，如果忽略土壤中的气态水运动，地气界面的水汽通量计算及边界层内的湿度及水汽通量的计算会产生较大的误差     

黄土高原半干旱区夏季晴天陆面特征模拟与观测对比分析

以甘肃定西为例,利用中尺度模式MM5模拟了黄土高原半干旱区夏季晴人的陆面特征,并与观测资料进行对比分析。结果表明,对气温、土壤热通量、辐射、感热通量的模拟结果与观测比较一致,而对比湿、地表温度、潜热通量的模拟结果与观测偏差稍大。夏季晴天,定西地区的地表温度日最高值出现时间较13最高气温出现时间早了3h,但两者日最低值出现时间相同;10cm深度处的土壤温度存在明显的日变化,而40、80cm深度处无明显的日变化;空气湿度较低,夜晚比湿的变化与露水的凝结量变化时间一致;土壤热通量呈典型的单峰型日变化特征,日最大值出现在13：00,与太阳短波辐射与地表反射辐射日最大值出现的时间相同;在半干旱区感热通量明显大于潜热通量,热通量以感热通量为主;边界层高度最高可达到2100m左右,比干旱区敦煌的低1000m左右。     

SENSITIVITY TESTS OF INTERACTION BETWEEN LAND SURFACE PHYSICAL PROCESS AND ATMOSPHERIC BOUNDARY LAYER

In this paper,an interactive model between land surface physical process and atmosphereboundary layer is established,and is used to simulate the features of soil environmental physics,surface heat fluxes,evaporation from soil and evapotranspiration from vegetation and structures ofatmosphere boundary layer over grassland underlying.The sensitivity experiments are engaged inprimary physics parameters.The results show that this model can obtain reasonable simulation fordiurnal variations of heat balance,soil volumetric water content,resistance of vegetationevaporation,flux of surface moisture,and profiles of turbulent exchange coefficient,turbulentmomentum,potential temperature,and specific humidity.The model developed can be used tostudy the interaction between land surface processes and atmospheric boundary layer in cityregions,and can also be used in the simulation of regional climate incorporating a mesoscalemodel.     

Interaction between soil hydrology and boundary-layer development

A two-layer model of soil hydrology and thermodynamics is combined with a one-dimensional model of the planetary boundary layer to study various interactions between evolution of the boundary layer and soil moisture transport. Boundary-layer moistening through surface evaporation reduces the potential and actual surface evaporation as well as the boundary-layer growth. With more advanced stages of soil drying, the restricted surface evaporation allows greater sensible heat flux which enhances boundary-layer growth and entrainment drying.Special individual cases are studied where the wind speed is strong, solar radiation is reduced, transpiration is important, the soil is thin, or the soil is covered with organic debris.     

SENSITIVITY TESTS OF INTERACTION BETWEEN LAND SURFACE PHYSICAL PROCESS AND ATMOSPHERIC BOUNDARY LAYER*

In this paper,an interactive model between land surface physical process and atmosphere boundary layer is established,and is used to simulate the features of soil environmental physics,surface heat fluxes,evaporation from soil and evapotranspiration from vegetation and structures of atmosphere boundary layer over grassland underlying.The sensitivity experiments are engaged in primary physics parameters.The results show that this model can obtain reasonable simulation for diurnal variations of heat balance,soil volumetric water content,resistance of vegetation evaporation,flux of surface moisture,and profiles of turbulent exchange coefficient,turbulent momentum,potential temperature,and specific humidity.The model developed can be used to study the interaction between land surface processes and atmospheric boundary layer in city regions,and can also be used in the simulation of regional climate incorporating a mesoscale model.     

Mean Profiles of Moisture Fluxes in Snow-Filled Boundary Layers

Profiles of moisture fluxes have been examined for convective boundary layers containing clouds and snow, using data derived from aircraft measurements taken on four dates during the 1983/1984 University of Chicago lake-effect snow project. Flux profiles were derived from vertical stacks of aircraft cross-wind flight legs taken at various heights over Lake Michigan near the downwind shore. It was found that, if ice processes are taken into account, profiles of potential temperature and water content were very similar to those presented in past studies of convective boundary layers strongly heated from below. Profiles of total water content and equivalent potential temperature adjusted for ice were nearly invariant with height, except very near the top of the boundary layer, suggesting that internal boundary-layer mixing processes were rapid relative to the rates at which heat and vapour were transported into the boundary layer through entrainment and surface fluxes. Ice was found to play a significant, measurable role in boundary-layer moisture fluxes. It was estimated that 40 to 57% of the upward vapour flux was returned to the surface in the form of snow, converting about 45 to 64% of the surface latent heat flux into sensible heat in the snow-producing process. Assuming advective fluxes are relatively small (thought to be appropriate after the first few tens of km over the lake as suggested by past studies), the boundary layer was found to warm at a rate faster than could be explained by surface heat fluxes and latent heat releases alone, the remainder of the heating presumably coming from radiational processes and entrainment. Discussions of moisture phase change processes throughout the boundary layer and estimates of errors of these flux measurements are presented.     

土壤热异常影响地表能量平衡的个例分析和数值模拟

The statistical relationship between soil thermal anomaly and short-term climate change is presented based on a typical case study. Furthermore, possible physical mechanisms behind the relationship are revealed through using an off-line land surface model with a reasonable soil thermal forcing at the bottom of the soil layer.In the first experiment, the given heat flux is 5 W m-2 at the bottom of the soil layer (in depth of 6.3 m)for 3 months, while only a positive ground temperature anomaly of 0.06℃ can be found compared to the control run. The anomaly, however, could reach 0.65℃ if the soil thermal conductivity was one order of magnitude larger. It could be even as large as 0.81℃ assuming the heat flux at bottom is 10 W m-2. Meanwhile, an increase of about 10 W m-2 was detected both for heat flux in soil and sensible heat on land surface, which is not neglectable to the short-term climate change. The results show that considerable response in land surface energy budget could be expected when the soil thermal forcing reaches a certain spatial-tem poral scale. Therefore, land surface models should not ignore the upward heat flux from the bottom of the soil layer. Moreover, integration for a longer period of time and coupled land-atmosphere model are also necessary for the better understanding of this issue.