陕西气象灾害预警信息手机短信息

通过分析陕西气象灾害预警信息手机短信息发布“绿色通道”的现状,发现短信下发速率有限、预警信号内容较长、内部制作审核流程冗长、发布规则不完善等是影响气象灾害预警发布时效性、实用性的主要问题,并针对现有问题提出业务优化的对策和建议。     

陕西气象灾害预警信息手机短信息发布“绿色通道”简析

通过分析陕西气象灾害预警信息手机短信息发布"绿色通道"的现状,发现短信下发速率有限、预警信号内容较长、内部制作审核流程冗长、发布规则不完善等是影响气象灾害预警发布时效性、实用性的主要问题,并针对现有问题提出业务优化的对策和建议。     

气象预警信号快速本地化及发布平台的设计实现

气象预警信号,是指由有发布权的气象台站为有效防御和减轻突发气象灾害而向社会公众发布的警报信息,随着技术的进步,气象预警信号的准确率答提升,气象预警信号发布已经成为气象部门日常工作中重要的组成部分,根据《辽宁省气象灾害预警信号制作发布业务规定》全省各级气象部门要在10min内完成预警信号的制作、发布工作,由于发布渠道多,为保证预警信号能及时传达至决策者和人民群众,预警信号的本地化及发布速度十分重要,因此,笔者基于VB与JAVA设计实现了能够快速完成省级预警中心、市气象台发布的预警信号本地化同时提供气象预警大喇叭、短信、传真发布等多途径发布平台的统一入口,提高了气象预警型号发布的时效性,软件试运行期间取得了业务人员的一致认可。     

崇左市预警信号发布现状及探讨

统计2008-2013年以来崇左市下辖江州区、扶绥县、天等县、大新县、宁明县、龙州县、凭祥市七县（市、区）,几种常用的气象灾害预警信号发布现状以及实际工作中遇到的问题展开谈论,探讨预警信号发布工作面临的新形势,并提出新形势下预警信号发布工作相应的对策和措施,从而更好的做好＂气象灾害预警信号＂的发布工作,减少气象灾害所带来的损失。     

气象灾害预警信号质量检验系统设计、开发与应用

根据业务技术规范,开展了暴雨、暴雪、大雾、大风、冰雹、雷电等气象灾害预警信号检验技术方法研究,以周、月、季度、半年、全年为统计周期,从准确率和时间提前量两个方面,对贵州省省、市、县三级气象台站发布的气象灾害预警信号进行客观化检验,为气象灾害预警信号质量提升和规范化管理提供了技术支撑。     

气象灾害预警信息发布手段与国家突发事件预警信息发布系统的对接建设

气象灾害预警信息发布手段系统是针对于气象预警和气象产品对外发布的平台。气象灾害预警信息发布手段系统主要对现有的国家突发事件预警信息发布系统(以下简称国突)信息数据处理中心进行业务对接,实现了收音机手段信息发布的全程监控,可一键在多平台发布天气预报、灾害预警和气象服务信息,气象灾害预警信息发布手段系统除涉及与终端通信外,还可实现国家级,省、市、县等各级通信,同步预警相关信息及设备信息。     

安徽省突发气象灾害预警信号制作系统

介绍了国内及安徽省预警信号发布制作工作的现状，阐述了安徽省气象台突发气象灾害预警信号制作系统的设计思路、流程结构和主要功能。该系统设计合理，并利用计算机软件编程技术完成人机交互的系统界面，可以方便快捷地生成图文并茂的预警信号发布内容，解决突发气象灾害预警信号制作工作的及时性、一致性、完整性问题。     

电视媒体与气象灾害

在概括媒体报道“气象灾害”的基础上，指出了现存问题，并对日本电视台的自然灾害预警信号发布机制进行了评述，从建立气象灾害预警信号发布及电视传播机制方面提出了对策和建议。     

基于气象预警信息的大连气象微博评论情感分析及发布策略建议

微博在气象预警信息传播及气象部门收集社会公众信息反馈中发挥了积极作用,并产生了海量级的交互信息,客观分析此类信息对于气象部门及时引领舆论导向和调整发布策略具有较高的参考价值。文中基于2017年1月1日—2020年7月3日大连市重大气象灾害过程,运用自然语言处理、情感分析等方法对大连气象微博中与气象预警相关的评论内容进行情感分析研究。结果表明：公众关注最多的是天气预报准确率、天气过程对于生活影响以及信息发布的及时性。公众对重大天气过程特别是致灾天气过程本身负面评价多于正面,发布策略应根据气象灾害持续时间及时调整预警信息内容和发布频次;公众对大风、冰雹等气象灾害预警信号关注度随季节变化明显,发布策略应针对旅游业、养殖户、种植户等提出专业防范对策;针对发布频率高的大风预警信号,有必要调整业务发布规范,同时关注灾后事件信息的跟踪发布;研究发现,负面情感主要针对天气预报的准确度。     

广西气象灾害预警信号分布特征及发布

利用2009—2013年广西预警信号发布通知单及评价表等资料,运用分类统计等方法,得出了近4年广西各类预警信号发布的时空分布特征、发布频次及发布准确率。资料表明:暴雨、雷电、高温预警信号是广西使用最频繁的3类灾害性天气预警信号,预警发布总数分布呈西少东多的态势,预警信号发布准确率较高,正确预警中提前预警所占的比重最大。针对预警信号面临的新形势,提出加强气象灾害预警信号发布的若干对策,以期进一步增强气象预警能力,提高气象预警水平。     

加强业务管理提高测报质量

我局从1999～2003年,测报工作连续4年未出现错情,在此期间共有1个250个班,9个百班无错通过上级业务部门验收.在仪器保管、使用、维护上符合要求,对外报送的各种表、簿都能做好出门合格.     

准两年振荡对大气中微量气体分布的影响

NCAR的包含化学、辐射、动力相互作用的两维模式（SOCRATES）移植回国后进行了初步的模拟试验,用以研究某些对环境问题重要的微量气体的化学、辐射、动力传输过程。在不考虑极地平流层云和气溶胶表面非均相化学等情况下,模式积分多年,计算结果稳定,模拟的风场、温度场显示出正常的季节变化,模拟的微量气体分布与卫星实测资料对照,结果也比较一致。为了探讨热带平流层风场的准两年周期振荡（QBO）对平流层微量气体分布的影响,我们做了QBO强迫的数值试验,即在模式中加入QBO强迫,并与不考虑QBO强迫的模拟结果对比。结果表明,QBO与其相关的次级环流所引起动力输送的变化,使平流层微量气体分布发生变化。     

Comparing the theoretical versions of the Beaufort scale, the T-Scale and the Fujita scale

2005 is the bicentenary of the Beaufort Scale and its wind-speed codes: the marine version in 1805 and the land version later. In the 1920s when anemometers had come into general use, the Beaufort Scale was quantified by a formula based on experiment. In the early 1970s two tornado wind-speed scales were proposed: (1) an International T-Scale based on the Beaufort Scale; and (2) Fujita's damage scale developed for North America. The International Beaufort Scale and the T-Scale share a common root in having an integral theoretical relationship with an established scientific basis, whereas Fujita's Scale introduces criteria that make its intensities non-integral with Beaufort. Forces on the T-Scale, where T stands for Tornado force, span the range 0 to 10 which is highly useful world wide. The shorter range of Fujita's Scale (0 to 5) is acceptable for American use but less convenient elsewhere. To illustrate the simplicity of the decimal T-Scale, mean hurricane wind speed of Beaufort 12 is T2 on the T-Scale but F1.121 on the F-Scale; while a tornado wind speed of T9 (= B26) becomes F4.761. However, the three wind scales can be uni-fied by either making F-Scale numbers exactly half the magnitude of T-Scale numbers [i.e. F′half = T / 2 = (B / 4) − 4] or by doubling the numbers of this revised version to give integral equivalence with the T-Scale. The result is a decimal formula F′double = T = (B / 2) − 4 named the TF-Scale where TF stands for Tornado Force. This harmonious 10-digit scale has all the criteria needed for world-wide practical effectiveness.     

On the forecast of the onset and end of the convective season in the Amazon

Summary ?Some features of the climate system that can be considered predictors of the onset and end of the convective season over the Amazon were identified using one-month lag correlations and field composites. The fields analyzed were sea surface temperature (SST), outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR), vertical velocity and upper tropospheric winds. Warm (cold) anomalies in the SST in the tropical North Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea tend to be associated with delayed (early) onsets. Likewise, there is a tendency towards a delayed (early) end of the convective season with cold (warm) anomalies in these ocean regions. In addition, the SST in the cold tongue region of the equatorial Pacific is negatively, though weakly correlated with the onset date. The signal of this SST is more evident in the case of the end date, which is earlier with respect to its mean date in most of El Ni?o cases. The convective activity intensity itself conditions the onset and the end of the convective season, as it is evidenced by the behavior of the OLR and the vertical velocity fields. The more (less) intense the convective activity over South America during the preceding month, the earlier the onset and the later the end of the convective season on the Amazon region. The prediction of the onset and end dates of the convective season in the Amazon region was explored using a simple multiple regression technique based on the variables that have shown precursor signals with respect to these dates. The correlation coefficient between the predicted and the observed onset date is 0.81, and in the case of the end date, it is 0.76. The skill to predict early, delayed and normal categories was high, since in more than two thirds of the cases the category was successfully predicted, and there were no predictions of categories opposed to those observed. Received July 23, 2001; revised February 22, 2002; accepted April 26, 2002     

由中国历史气候记录对季风导致唐朝灭亡说的质疑

2007年1月4日杂志发表了Yancheva等10人的题为"Influence of the intertropical convergence zone on the East-Asian monsoon"(热带辐合带对东亚季风的影响)的论文[1],这是德国波兹坦地学研究中心气候动力与沉积学科的主管豪格(G.H.Haug)率领的科研小组的一项成果,认为是季风的变化引起的长期干旱导致了唐朝的灭亡.     

流场配置及地形对西南低涡形成的动力作用

本文采用定常二层模式讨论较小地形及高、低层流场配置对西南低涡形成的动力作用。指出了西南低涡的形成是与盆地、河谷以及其上气流分层有关的一种定常态.在上、下为西风分层时期,低层的浅薄暖湿西风有利于西南低涡的形成.在上、下为东、西风分层时期,上层浅薄东风亦有利于西南低涡的形成.小型的凸起山脉对西南低涡的形成没有作用.     

Analysis of the Characteristics of the Low-level Jets in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River during the Mei-yu Season

Here, we analyze the characteristics and the formation mechanisms of low-level jets(LLJs) in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River during the 2010 mei-yu season using Wuhan station radiosonde data and the fifth generation of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ERA5) reanalysis dataset. Our results show that the vertical structure of LLJs is characterized by a predominance of boundary layer jets(BLJs) concentrated at heights of 900–1200 m.The BLJs occur most frequently at 230...     

Quantifying the uncertainty of the annular mode time scale and the role of the stratosphere

The impact of high resolution modern vegetation cover on the West African climate is examined using the International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model implementing the NCAR Community Land Model. Two high resolution 25 km long-term simulations driven by the output from a coarser 50-km resolution simulation are performed for the period 1998–2010. One high resolution simulation uses an earlier and coarser-resolution version of plant functional type distribution and leaf area index, while the other uses a more recent, higher-quality, and finer-resolution version of the data. The results indicate that the new land cover distribution substantially alters the distribution of temperature with warming in Central Nigeria, northern Gulf of Guinea and part of the Sahel due to the replacement of C4 grass with corn; and cooling along the coastlines of the Gulf of Guinea and in Central Africa due to the replacement of C4 grass with tropical broadleaf evergreen trees. Changes in latent heat flux appear to be largely responsible for these temperature changes with a net decrease (increase) in regions of warming (cooling). The improved land cover distribution also results in a wetter monsoon season. The presence of corn tends to favor larger precipitation amounts via more intense events, while the presence of tropical broadleaf evergreen trees tends to favor the occurrence of both more intense and more frequent events. The wetter conditions appear to be sustained via (1) an enhanced soil moisture feedback; and (2) elevated moisture transport due to increased low-level convergence in regions south of 10N where the most substantial land cover differences are present. Overall the changes induced by the improved vegetation cover improve, to some extent, the performance of the high resolution regional climate model in simulating the main West African summer monsoon features.