关注天气、气候的变化,大力宣传气象志愿者

简述了天气气候变化对人类的影响，各国人民对气象事业的高度重视，高度赞扬服务于天气气候和水的志愿工作者，不计报酬,示计名利，为人类的生存，为人们生活的更加美好而辛勤工作的精神。     

天气,海洋与人类活动

1998年3月23日世界气象日的主题是天气、海洋与人类活动。世界气象组织确定这个主题的目的,是使人类进一步认识天气、海洋和人类活动之间的关系,充分利用天气、海洋对人类活动的有利影响,减少和避免不利影响、为促进入类社会的经济发展和社会进步服务。天气、海洋与人类活动     

关注气候变化 提高气象服务能力——纪念2002年世界气象日

今年3月23日世界气象日的主题是“降低对天气和气候极端事件的脆弱性”。联合国世界气象组织每年都根据当前国际关心的热点问题，选择纪念主题。一方面表达了对越来越频繁的天气、气候灾害及其给人类社会造成的危害的强烈关注；另一方面是认识到通过加强对天气、气候的监测和预报，可以最大限度地降低天气、气候极端事件带来的不利影响，并希望通过宣传这一主题，呼吁各国采取措施减缓全球气候变暖趋势，进一步加强气象工作，以减轻天气和气候极端事件对人类社会的危害。……     

天气气候与人类活动

论述了天气气候与人类活动之间的关系,其中着重讨论了天气气候与工农业生产的相互作用与影响。认为天气气候是人类活动必不可少的环境与资源的一部分,但是人类活动也会受到天气气候的影响和制约。同时,人类活动也会对天气气候产生影响,引起天气气候的变化,这种变化反过来又会作用于人类活动     

报刊中天文气象词语辨析

人类生活在大自然中，无时无刻不受到天气、气候的制约，人们越来越关心天气的冷暖变化，有些报刊载文时对天气、气象、气候解释说法不一样，大家都想知道它的真正含意，特别是对一些不常见的天文、天时、天候之类词语更是想弄个水落石出，因此，本文对6个专业用语解析如下，供广大读者参考。     

雷雨天气对飞行的影响及其对策

雷雨天气对飞行的影响及其对策黄方斌（民航南宁机场南宁５３００４８）由于人类的飞行活动是在地球大气中进行的，所以大气中的天气现象和大气本身对飞行的活动有着密不可分的关系，尤其是象雷雨天气这样的恶劣天气对飞行安全威协更大，轻则造成伤人损机，重则造成机毁人...     

用高新技术驾驭天气

在气象工作中,最令人懊恼的是那些灾害性天气。纵然预报结论准确无误,但诸如台风、龙卷风、冰雹、暴雨等天气所造成的灾害是人的力量难以抵御的,每年都给人类造成巨大损失。预防和消除灾害性天气,已成为气象学家第一位的研究课题。未来的气象工作将不仅仅是准确预报天气,更主要的是按照人类的意愿进行人工控制天气。特别是对那些会给人类带来灾害的天气实行人工干预,对可能出现的灾害作相应技术处理并将其消除在萌芽之中。目前,人类已能在长期干旱地区通过在云中喷洒化学药剂进行小区域人工降雨来控制天气。据此,科学家设想,对于不需要雨水…     

提高全社会气象意识和防灾减灾意识——在世界气象日座谈会上的讲话

今天，由自治区气象局、气象学会和我们自治区灾害防御协会联合召开了世界气象日座谈会。紧紧围绕今年的主题“降低对天气和气候极端事件的脆弱性”进行了座谈，这是非常有意义的。世界气象组织选择这个主题正如中国气象局局长秦大河所说，一是表达了对天气、气候灾害及其给人类社会造成的危害的强烈关注，二是呼吁各国政府和社会团体加强对天气、气候的监测、预报，采取措施，最大限度地减轻极端气候事件对人类社会的危害。自治区灾害防御协会是实施联合国“国际减灾十年”计划的时候成立的。十多年来一直从事着减轻各种自然灾害的科学和技…     

气象与健康

天气是变化多端、人类难以驾驭的自然现象，各种天气及相应气象要素的变化，都会引起人体的生理反应，直接或间接地影响着人们的身体健康。如降温引发的风寒感冒、呼吸道感染、关节炎复发等，高温天气引起的中暑、肠炎等，气温、气压骤变诱发的高血压、心脏病以及因季节性气候变化引起的各类疾病。这些对人民生活质量都会造成很大影响。     

人工影响天气在防御气象灾害中的重要作用

１概述加强对天气、气候和水相关的极端事件的预测和预报，并通过实施完备的防灾、减灾、救灾战略，最大限度地降低气象灾害极端事件带来的负面影响，保证国家经济建设顺利进行和广大人民群众的生命财产安全是我们面临的重要任务。人工影响天气作为防灾减灾手段之一，在抵御气象灾害方面发挥着越来越重要的作用，为人类未雨绸缪，趋利避害，营造美好的生存环境，做出了越来越大的贡献。人工影响天气技术问世已有半个多世纪了，并从起初的人工增水逐步扩展到人工防雹、人工消云（雾）、人工防霜、人工抑制闪电等方面。同时，人工影响天气的理…     

Heuristic considerations pertaining to hailstone size distributions in the plain of Friuli-Venezia Giulia

In this work, the hailstone size distributions at the ground in the plain of Friuli-Venezia Giulia are presented, as revealed through a network of polystyrene pads (hailpads), managed by volunteers, which has been active since 1988. The aim of this work is to highlight possible differences in the diurnal and seasonal behavior of hail at the ground, both from Friuli-Venezia Giulia and other countries, in order to improve the knowledge of this meteorological phenomenon.In the comparison between different countries, differences are found between the yearly size distributions of Friuli-Venezia Giulia and those of North-East Colorado, measured during the National Hail Research Experiment (NHRE). The size distributions obtained in South West France and in Friuli-Venezia Giulia are quite similar and they are slightly different from those of the Grossversuch experiment.In the comparison between different periods of the year, relevant differences are found between April and May and the other months. In particular, thunderstorms are less efficient in producing big hailstones during the former months. The most prolific month in producing hailstones is June, followed by September. This feature is interpreted as due to a form of synergy between the frequency of the synoptic forcing of storms and the amount of available energy at the ground.Analyzing the size distributions at different times of the day, the greatest differences are found in the intervals [00–06] and [06–12] in local time (respectively, [22–04] and [04–10] in UTC). These differences cannot be ascribed to the melting of the hailstones during their fall.     

Regulating knowledge monopolies: the case of the IPCC

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has a monopoly on the provision of climate policy advice at the international level and a strong market position in national policy advice. This may have been the intention of the founders of the IPCC. I argue that the IPCC has a natural monopoly, as a new entrant would have to invest time and effort over a longer period to perhaps match the reputation, trust, goodwill, and network of the IPCC. The IPCC is a not-for-profit organization, and it is run by nominal volunteers. It therefore cannot engage in the price-gouging that is typical of monopolies. However, the IPCC has certainly taken up tasks outside its mandate. The IPCC has been accused of haughtiness. Innovation is slow. Quality may have declined. And the IPCC may have used its power to hinder competitors. There are all things that monopolies tend to do, against the public interest. The IPCC would perform better if it were regulated by an independent body which audits the IPCC procedures and assesses its performance; if outside organizations would be allowed to bid for the production of reports and the provision of services under the IPCC brand; and if policy makers would encourage potential competitors to the IPCC.     

An Alberta study to objectively measure hailfall intensity

During the summer of 1973, two networks of hail detectors were established in a hail‐prone region of southern Alberta, in conjunction with the hail suppression investigations being carried out by Alberta Hail Studies (ALHAS).² Two hundred and seventy‐two farmer volunteers maintained the detectors in two regions totalling 1600 mi², providing a mean station spacing of 2.5 mi. Five dense networks with a detector spacing of 0.25 mi were also operated during August.

These detectors successfully recorded the hailfall on 17 severe thunderstorm days. The areal coverage of the hailfall was found to be less sporadic than was popularly believed, and the data revealed two different spatial scales of hailfall variation. A preliminary examination of the significance of these results for the design of precipitation (and particularly hail) measuring networks is undertaken.     

舟山群岛冬半年灾害性大风的成因与预报

利用舟山市1994—2003年的实测风资料分5类统计了舟山群岛冬半年大风的发生规律。对一次冷空气个例进行诊断分析结果表明:大风是强冷平流、高空急流、动量下传等共同作用的结果。对一次低气压引起的大风的分析认为涡度平流、温度平流、潜热释放对低压发展有重大贡献。根据大风的成因和预报经验选择有关物理量进行t统计分析, 选择有异常表现的物理量作预报因子。最后用人工神经网络方法建立预报模型, 并进行了试报, 试报误差都在4.5 m/s以下。     

降水引发的西南地区公路损毁风险预报方法

降水引发公路沿线滑坡、泥石流及其他灾害频繁发生,已成为引发公路损毁的最重要因子之一。该文利用2007年1月—2013年7月区域 (云、贵、川、渝4个地区) 公路损毁灾害数据、基础地理信息数据及国家气象中心降水量历史资料,通过对灾害发生频次、降水量等资料的统计分析,初步探讨降水与公路损毁灾害的关系,并重点针对公路损毁的降水影响因子 (即前期有效降水和损毁灾害发生当日降水),开发具有普适性的公路损毁概率密度函数及其概率拟合方程,建立公路损毁灾害概率预报模型;综合公路损毁灾害风险区划信息 (即灾害危险性等级) 与降水的等级临界阈值 (即降水危险性等级),建立区域公路损毁的危险性分级预警方案,得出综合的西南地区公路损毁风险预报模型,以1～5级划分, 分别为灾害发生可能性极小、灾害发生可能性较小、灾害发生可能性中等 (注意)、灾害发生可能性较大 (预警)、灾害发生可能性极大 (警报)。该预报方法结合降水危险性等级及公路损毁灾害危险性等级,明显优于仅考虑阈值降水量的判别方法。     

地面气象观测资料电子档案的安全性

为了加强地面气象观测资料的电子档案安全管理,适应信息时代气象现代化业务建设的需要,以确保电子文件的真实性、完整性和有效性,提高气象电子档案的利用率,论述了电子档案安全性问题的特点,以及其与电子文件格式类型的关系.合适的电子文件格式对电子档案安全有重要意义,分析了纯文本文件和数据库文件这两种典型文件格式类型的特点,提出了通过建立纯文本文件和数据库文件相互备份机制,不仅可以最大程度地提高电子档案资料的安全性,而且可以提高档案资料的管理、服务及开发利用能力.     

Exploring vulnerability and adaptation to climate change of communities in the forest zone of Cameroon

Understanding vulnerability to the impacts of global environmental change and identifying adaptation measures to cope with these impacts require localized investigations that can help find actual and exact answers to the questions about who and what are vulnerable, to what are they vulnerable, how vulnerable are they, what are the causes of their vulnerability, and what responses can lessen their vulnerability. People living in forests are highly dependent on forest goods and services, and are vulnerable to forest changes both socially and economically. In the Congo basin, climate change effects on forest ecosystems are predicted to amplify the existing pressure on food security urging expansion of current agricultural lands at the expense of forest, biodiversity loss and socioeconomic stresses. The paper aimed at exploring vulnerability and adaptation needs to climate change of local communities in the humid forest zone of Cameroon. Field work was conducted in two forest communities in Lekié and in Yokadouma in the Center and Eastern Regions of Cameroon respectively. The assessment was done using a series of approaches including a preparatory phase, fieldwork proper, and validation of the results. Results show that: (a) the adverse effects of climate conditions to which these communities are exposed are already being felt and exerting considerable stress on most of their livelihoods resources; (b) drought, changing seasons, erratic rain patterns, heavy rainfall and strong winds are among the main climate-related disturbances perceived by populations in the project sites; (c) important social, ecological and economic processes over the past decades seemed to have shaped current vulnerability in the sites; (d) Some coping and adaptive strategies used so far are outdated; and specific adaptation needs are identified and suggestions for facilitating their long-term implementations provided.     

多普勒雷达PPI资料在数值模式MM5中的应用

利用多普勒天气雷达观测的回波强度资料,估测大气的湿度值。假定回波强度大于4 0dBz的区域,相对湿度为1 0 0 % ,小于2 0dBz的区域相对湿度为90 % ,2 0～4 0dBz区域的相对湿度按线性变化求取。对应各点的温度值由MM5控制试验得出。然后通过迭代处理,求出对应各点的露点温度,通过以上步骤把雷达观测的回波强度值转换为模式中直接使用的物理变量,用于模式计算。为了验证该方法的可行性,进行了模拟试验,个例选用2 0 0 1年7月1 3日安徽全椒暴雨过程。背景场采用T2 1 3资料,加上常规探空,地面资料,通过分析形成控制试验的初始场。将安徽合肥新一代天气雷达观测的回波强度按上述方法加入到MM5中,形成敏感试验的初始场。水平网格为1 0 3×1 0 3,格距为1 0km ,垂直分33层,中心位置为31 0 0°N、1 1 7 6 6°E。试验结果表明,加入雷达资料后降水中心位置预报有明显改进。说明上述方法是可行的。     

High-resolution simulations of West African climate using regional climate model (RegCM3) with different lateral boundary conditions

To downscale climate change scenarios, long-term regional climatologies employing global model forcing are needed for West Africa. As a first step, this work examines present-day integrations (1981–2000) with a regional climate model (RCM) over West Africa nested in both reanalysis data and output from a coupled atmospheric–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM). Precipitation and temperature from both simulations are compared to the Climate Research Unit observations. Their spatial distributions are shown to be realistic. Annual cycles are considerably correlated. Simulations are also evaluated with respect to the driving large-scale fields. RCM offers some improvements compared to the AOGCM driving field. Evaluation of seasonal precipitation biases reveals that RCM dry biases are highest on June–August around mountains. They are associated to cold biases in temperature which, in turn, are connected to wet biases in precipitation outside orographic zones. Biases brought through AOGCM forcing are relatively low. Despite these errors, the simulations produce encouraging results and show the ability of the AOGCM to drive the RCM for future projections.