雷电灾害等级划分及发生潜势指标探讨

按照雷电灾害造成的人员伤亡和经济损失大小等情况,依据气象灾害评估分级处置标准,将雷电灾害划分为7个等级,并确定了等级划分标准。从造成雷电灾害的致灾因子、孕灾环境和承灾体系统出发,根据我国雷电灾害发生的特点,选取了地闪密度（或雷击密度）、雷灾频数、人口密度和人均GDP作为评估雷电灾害发生潜势的指标,并以珠江三角洲5市为例介绍了评估方法。     

1959—2019年江西省一季稻热害发生特征

利用江西省81个气象观测站日最高气温资料,按照单站和区域两个方面,分析了1959—2019年江西省一季稻孕穗至灌浆期高温热害过程的强度、持续时间、总日数、次数等时空变化特征。结果表明: 1） 单站一季稻热害过程平均每年发生2—4次,最多达8次;江西省东北地区和吉泰盆地单站热害年均强度均达重度。2） 区域一季稻热害过程平均每年发生1—3次,最多达4次。在一季稻热害发生年份中,有443%的年份为中等强度等级,377%的年份达强或特强等级。3） 江西省单站一季稻热害的强度、持续时间、总日数等指标均呈上升趋势,尤其在1993年以后趋势更为显著。     

基于GIS的咸宁市枇杷气象灾害危险性评价

气象灾害是影响枇杷规模化种植和发展最重要的因素之一。以湖北省咸宁市典型枇杷产区为例,首先在对该区近10 a枇杷种植情况及气象灾害调查的基础上,结合该市6个国家级气象站及135个区域气象站观测资料以及30 m×30 m精度的DEM高程数据,分析确定致灾因子指标,建立枇杷气象灾害指数和等级标准;然后,利用层次分析法计算得到各气象灾害危险指数权重,构建气象灾害综合危险性评价模型;最后,借助多元回归分析方法建立气象灾害概率空间分布函数,结合GIS技术,对该市枇杷种植的气象灾害危险性进行评价和区划。结果表明：(1)咸宁市枇杷种植的气象灾害主要是低温冻害、高温热害和春季连阴雨,其中低温冻害对枇杷种植的危险性高于春季连阴雨和高温热害。(2)咸宁市中部、南部的中高山地区为枇杷种植的高危险区,中部和南部山体以北的丘陵、低山区为中危险区,北部沿江滨湖区、中部盆地及湖库四周为低危险区。(3)咸宁市枇杷种植的气象灾害危险性与地理因子之间关系密切。随着海拔增高,枇杷遭受低温冻害和连阴雨灾害的危险性呈增大趋势,高温热害的危险性则呈降低趋势;由于水体增温效应和山体对南下强冷空气的屏障作用,沿江、湖库等近水体区域及中...     

铜川市近30年苹果气象灾害特征分析

利用铜川市1990—2019年国家基本站气象观测资料,依据前人研究所得的苹果各类气象灾害等级划分标准,分析铜川市近30 a苹果晚霜冻、高温热害、连阴雨、干旱等气象灾害特征。结果表明：（1）1990—2019年铜川市苹果晚霜冻灾害、高温热害、连阴雨灾害均为先增多后减少趋势,而干旱灾害的强度先减弱后增强;（2）苹果晚霜冻与连阴雨灾害均为北多南少;高温热害北少南多,南北差异显著;干旱灾害强度为中部弱,南部、北部强。研究结果可为铜川市苹果气象灾害防御提供理论依据,为铜川地区苹果产业发展提供科学指导。     

江西早稻高温热害发生时间分布特征

以江西早稻为例,利用1981—2016年气象资料、早稻高温热害灾情史料和生育期资料,构建历史早稻高温热害样本集合,在Kolmogorov-Smirnov（K-S）分布拟合检验的基础上,采用信息扩散方法计算得到早稻高温热害总样本和不同持续日数（3~5 d,6~8 d和8 d以上）不同等级（轻度、中度、重度）热害在早稻抽穗期前后的发生概率。结果表明:早稻高温热害起始于抽穗前6 d至抽穗后20 d,抽穗扬花期发生概率最高,随着早稻进入乳熟期高温热害发生概率逐渐降低。早稻抽穗扬花期持续3~5 d早稻高温热害以轻度、中度为主,5 d以上中度、重度高温热害发生概率为98.77%;随着早稻进入乳熟期,高温热害以中度和轻度为主,重度高温热害概率显著降低。早稻轻度高温热害的主要致灾时段为抽穗至灌浆中期,中度高温热害的主要致灾时段为抽穗至灌浆中前期,而重度高温热害的主要致灾时段为孕穗期至灌浆初期。     

灰色关联度方法在大风和暴雨灾害损失评估中的应用

针对近20年北京地区发生的大风和暴雨灾害,应用灰色关联度方法,计算北京地区近20年的19个大风和暴雨灾例的灾情评估指标与关联度,进行损失评估和比较。结果表明,该方法对灾情等级划分和灾情损失排序是合理的,比较符合实际对灾情的评价,能够对不同气象灾害和同一级别的气象灾害灾情差异尺度做比较,是能够应用于实际工作中的一种科学方法。     

高速公路交通气象灾害风险评估方法简介

简要介绍了我国高速公路交通气象灾害风险评估方法。选取了对高速公路交通运行影响最大的气象因子:低能见度、降雨、冰冻雨雪和大风,通过模糊数学法和灰色关联度等方法的客观计算,以及AHP的主观打分等方法对高速公路交通运行致灾的气象因子危险性进行了研究,结合孕灾环境的敏感性、承灾体的暴露性和脆弱性及防灾减灾能力等要素,基于GIS技术将各指标栅格成10 kmx10 km的基本单元进行拓扑处理,将高速公路交通气象灾害风险从高到低划分为5个等级,用不同颜色表示,最终得到了全国高速公路交通气象灾害风险的评估结果。     

内蒙古牧区春季旱灾致灾因子危险性致灾阈值分析

以内蒙古58个牧业旗县为分析区域,以北方牧区频繁发生的旱灾为分析对象,从旱灾的致灾因子危险性指标的致灾阈值着手,通过各指标干旱等级阈值的划分,与灾害发生实际情况对比,选择适合不同下垫面的干旱指标等级划分标准,根据此标准确定致灾因子强度,统计发生概率,通过干旱致灾危险性指数的计算方法,完成内蒙古牧区春季旱灾潜在致灾因子危险性区划。分析结果如下:用降水距平百分率指标作为干旱的评定标准,不同的下垫面选用不同的干旱等级阈值,草甸草原、森林植被用气象干旱降水距平百分率指标干旱等级阈值效果较好;典型草原用北方干旱降水距平百分率指标典型草原干旱等级阈值;荒漠草原、沙地植被、荒漠均用北方草原干旱降水距平百分率指标荒漠草原干旱等级阈值;人工植被用气象干旱或农业干旱降水距平百分率指标干旱等级阈值。内蒙古牧区春季干旱潜在致灾因子危险性程度由东北向西南呈逐渐增加的趋势,春季干旱对内蒙古中西部牧区的影响较大。     

中国玉米高温热害研究进展北大核心CSCD

在气候变化背景下,中国玉米生产遭受的高温危害日益加剧。基于已有研究成果和实际灾情,从高温热害的概念及分类出发,对玉米高温热害的危害机理、气象成因、致灾指标、时空分布、防御对策等方面进行系统归纳阐述,并对未来玉米高温热害研究方向进行展望。中国玉米高温热害分为延迟型、障碍型、生长不良型和混合型4类,高温降低玉米花粉活力抑制散粉,缩短灌浆时间,导致玉米产量及品质降低。中国玉米种植区高温热害天气主要由环流异常引起,致灾指标包括生理生化指标及气象学指标等,但目前尚无统一标准。近10年中国玉米高温热害发生强度及频次增大,春玉米高温热害在北方玉米区的松辽平原、西南玉米区的东北部风险较高,夏玉米高温热害在河北省东南部、河南省大部以及山东省西部频发。采取适当的防御对策能减轻高温热害对玉米的不利影响。未来的研究应在综合动态的玉米高温热害指标体系、高温热害灾损模拟及风险评估与区划、高温热害精细化监测预警服务系统等方面重点突破。     

浙江省高温精细化的评估方法

利用浙江省历史上144例高温过程研究建立了高温精细化评估方法,首先根据高温日数和高温累积量两项指标构建单站高温强度评估模型并将单站高温强度划分为"特强、强、较强、一般"4个等级,再根据1～4级高温范围和平均高温强度等指标构建全省高温强度评估模型,将全省高温强度也划分为同样Ⅰ～Ⅳ个等级;通过计算验证了该方法;另外评估结果显示,浙江省Ⅳ级以上高温平均每年可出现2.8次,近年来Ⅰ级(特强)高温有多发和重发的趋势;以杭州的西南部、金华的大部分以及丽水的中北部地区高温致灾危险性指数为最高(高危险区),从内陆到沿海、中部向南北两侧相应由"较高危险区→中等危险区→较低危险区"过渡,海岛及沿海个别地区属相对低危险区。     

CHARACTERISTICS AND TRENDS OF CLIMATIC EXTREMES IN CHINA DURING 1959–2014

The spatial and temporal variations of daily maximum temperature(Tmax), daily minimum temperature(Tmin), daily maximum precipitation(Pmax) and daily maximum wind speed(WSmax) were examined in China using Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method. The results indicated that for China as a whole, Tmax, Tmin and Pmax had significant increasing trends at rates of 0.15℃ per decade, 0.45℃ per decade and 0.58 mm per decade,respectively, while WSmax had decreased significantly at 1.18 m·s~(-1) per decade during 1959—2014. In all regions of China, Tmin increased and WSmax decreased significantly. Spatially, Tmax increased significantly at most of the stations in South China(SC), northwestern North China(NC), northeastern Northeast China(NEC), eastern Northwest China(NWC) and eastern Southwest China(SWC), and the increasing trends were significant in NC, SC, NWC and SWC on the regional average. Tmin increased significantly at most of the stations in China, with notable increase in NEC, northern and southeastern NC and northwestern and eastern NWC. Pmax showed no significant trend at most of the stations in China, and on the regional average it decreased significantly in NC but increased in SC, NWC and the mid-lower Yangtze River valley(YR). WSmax decreased significantly at the vast majority of stations in China, with remarkable decrease in northern NC, northern and central YR, central and southern SC and in parts of central NEC and western NWC. With global climate change and rapidly economic development, China has become more vulnerable to climatic extremes and meteorological disasters, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of climatic extremes,such as environmentally-friendly and low-cost energy production systems and the enhancement of engineering defense measures are necessary for government and social publics.     

LOW-FREQUENCY CIRCULATION AND EXTENDED-RANGE FORECAST IN CONNECTION WITH AUTUMN EXTREME HEAVY RAINFALL PROCESS IN HAINAN

Observed daily precipitation data from the National Meteorological Observatory in Hainan province and daily data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis-2 dataset from 1981 to 2014 are used to analyze the relationship between Hainan extreme heavy rainfall processes in autumn (referred to as EHRPs) and 10–30 d low-frequency circulation. Based on the key low-frequency signals and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) model forecasting products, a dynamical-statistical method is established for the extended-range forecast of EHRPs. The results suggest that EHRPs have a close relationship with the 10–30 d low-frequency oscillation of 850 hPa zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north, and that they basically occur during the trough phase of the low-frequency oscillation of zonal wind. The latitudinal propagation of the low-frequency wave train in the middle-high latitudes and the meridional propagation of the low-frequency wave train along the coast of East Asia contribute to the ‘north high (cold), south low (warm)’ pattern near Hainan Island, which results in the zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north reaching its trough, consequently leading to EHRPs. Considering the link between low-frequency circulation and EHRPs, a low-frequency wave train index (LWTI) is defined and adopted to forecast EHRPs by using NCEP CFSv2 forecasting products. EHRPs are predicted to occur during peak phases of LWTI with value larger than 1 for three or more consecutive forecast days. Hindcast experiments for EHRPs in 2015–2016 indicate that EHRPs can be predicted 8–24 d in advance, with an average period of validity of 16.7 d.     

AN ATTRIBUTION ANALYSIS OF CHANGES IN POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IN THE BEIJING–TIANJIN–HEBEI REGION UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE

Based on the measurements obtained at 64 national meteorological stations in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region between 1970 and 2013, the potential evapotranspiration (ET0) in this region was estimated using the Penman–Monteith equation and its sensitivity to maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), wind speed (Vw), net radiation (Rn) and water vapor pressure (Pwv) was analyzed, respectively. The results are shown as follows. (1) The climatic elements in the BTH region underwent significant changes in the study period. Vw and Rn decreased significantly, whereas Tmin, Tmax and Pwv increased considerably. (2) In the BTH region, ET0 also exhibited a significant decreasing trend, and the sensitivity of ET0 to the climatic elements exhibited seasonal characteristics. Of all the climatic elements, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv in the fall and winter and Rn in the spring and summer. On the annual scale, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv, followed by Rn, Vw, Tmax and Tmin. In addition, the sensitivity coefficient of ET0 with respect to Pwv had a negative value for all the areas, indicating that increases in Pwv can prevent ET0 from increasing. (3) The sensitivity of ET0 to Tmin and Tmax was significantly lower than its sensitivity to other climatic elements. However, increases in temperature can lead to changes in Pwv and Rn. The temperature should be considered the key intrinsic climatic element that has caused the "evaporation paradox" phenomenon in the BTH region.     

ANALYSIS OF “BIMODAL PATTERN” STORM ACTIVITY CHARACTERISTICS OF THE BAY OF BENGAL

Storms that occur at the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are of a bimodal pattern, which is different from that of the other sea areas. By using the NCEP, SST and JTWC data, the causes of the bimodal pattern storm activity of the BoB are diagnosed and analyzed in this paper. The result shows that the seasonal variation of general atmosphere circulation in East Asia has a regulating and controlling impact on the BoB storm activity, and the “bimodal period” of the storm activity corresponds exactly to the seasonal conversion period of atmospheric circulation. The minor wind speed of shear spring and autumn contributed to the storm, which was a crucial factor for the generation and occurrence of the “bimodal pattern” storm activity in the BoB. The analysis on sea surface temperature (SST) shows that the SSTs of all the year around in the BoB area meet the conditions required for the generation of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, the SSTs in the central area of the bay are higher than that of the surrounding areas in spring and autumn, which facilitates the occurrence of a “two-peak” storm activity pattern. The genesis potential index (GPI) quantifies and reflects the environmental conditions for the generation of the BoB storms. For GPI, the intense low-level vortex disturbance in the troposphere and high-humidity atmosphere are the sufficient conditions for storms, while large maximum wind velocity of the ground vortex radius and small vertical wind shear are the necessary conditions of storms.     

Revisiting the Concentration Observations and Source Apportionment of Atmospheric Ammonia

正While China’s Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan on particulate matter since 2013 has reduced sulfate significantly, aerosol ammonium nitrate remains high in East China. As the high nitrate abundances are strongly linked with ammonia, reducing ammonia emissions is becoming increasingly important to improve the air quality of China. Although satellite data provide evidence of substantial increases in atmospheric ammonia concentrations over major agricultural regions, long-term surface observation of ammonia concentrations are sparse. In addition, there is still no consensus on     

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正AIMS AND SCOPE Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters (AOSL) publishes short research letters on all disciplines of the atmosphere sciences and physical oceanography. Contributions from all over the world are welcome.SUBMISSIONAll submitted     

A Brief Introduction to Marine Meteorological Science Experiment Base at Bohe Town,Maoming City,Guangdong Province

<正>With the support of specialized funds for national science institutions,the Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration set up in October 2008 an experiment base for marine meteorology and a number of observation systems for the coastal boundary layer,air-sea flux,marine environmental elements,and basic meteorological elements at Bohe town,Maoming city,Guangdong province,in the northern part of the South China Sea.     

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AIMS AND SCOPE
Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters （AOSL） publishes short research letters on all disciplines of the atmosphere sciences and physical oceanography. Contributions from all over the world are welcome.     

Information for Authors

AIMS AND SCOPE Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters （AOSL） pub- lishes short research letters on all disciplines of the atmos- phere sciences and physical oceanography. Contributions from all over the world are welcome.