台风Chanchu(0601)变性过程中的强度变化及环境场分析

利用非静力中尺度WRF模式模拟的台风Chanchu(0601)的输出资料,探讨了Chanchu减弱变性过程的强度及结构变化。分析结果表明:在台风Chanchu北移过程中,高层的暖心被破坏,强度快速减弱,眼壁对流发展高度降低,眼壁对流由对称结构演变为非对称,内核对流减弱。此减弱变性过程与惯性稳定度减小、垂直风切变增强、低层锋生等环境要素有关。惯性稳定度与台风强度变化一致,随着惯性稳定度降低,最大切向风减弱并不断外扩,Rossby变形半径增大从而潜热释放不集中难以维持台风强度,台风减弱;同时,内核区的高层暖心更易径向频散,从而高层暖心难以维持;环境的垂直风切变增强使台风的斜压性增强,台风垂直结构的倾斜度增大,对流发展高度降低;低层冷空气侵入台风中心趋于填塞,也利于台风强度减弱;台风登陆以后冷暖空气对比导致的锋生使得不稳定能量释放从而重新加强了Chanchu环流内的中低层对流活动,但较台风最强时刻而言对流强度减弱。总体减少的对流和降低的对流高度,导致潜热能释放减小,其向心输送也减少,不足以维持强暖心结构,最终使得台风减弱并变性。      

“珍珠”（0601）异常急翘路径和内核结构变化的诊断分析及数值研究

使用FY2卫星TBB资料、NCEP最终分析资料(1°×1°)和中尺度模式WRF,对0601号强台风"珍珠"的"急翘"异常转向路径和内核结构变化进行诊断分析和数值模拟。结果表明:"珍珠"移向变化与环境引导气流和位涡倾向1波分量正异常有关,"急翘"前12小时,环境引导气流向北偏转,位涡倾向1波分量正异常对应着"珍珠"移动方向变化;内核非对称结构发展与环境风垂直切变演变有关,垂直切变使得涡旋倾斜,涡旋倾斜方向出现较强的上升运动,导致"珍珠"内核偏南象限对流活动较强。     

强垂直风切变环境下对流单体对飓风强度的影响

利用高分辨率模式输出资料,诊断分析强垂直风切变环境下飓风Bonnie(1998)中风暴相对螺旋度的分布特征,再现了Molinari等(2008)利用下投式探空仪获得的该飓风内部风暴相对螺旋度的离散观测结果。通过对比不同垂直风切变环境下,不同区域风暴的相对螺旋度、对流有效位能及风速的水平分布,揭示出与高值风暴相对螺旋度相联系的强对流单体的分布与环境垂直风切变的密切联系。基于风暴相对螺旋度和对流有效位能的配置分析,研究强环境垂直风切变时段,眼壁附近的深厚涡旋对流以及螺旋雨带中的小型对流单体的三维结构和演变特征。分析表明,环境垂直风切变较强时,在眼壁附近的顺切变区存在典型的深厚涡旋对流系统,这类深厚涡旋系统能够激发二级垂直环流,有利于旋转上升运动的维持,并在近眼心区域引发补偿性的干暖下沉气流,有助于飓风暖心的维持和加强;同时,螺旋雨带中也存在以涡度为特征的小型对流单体,这些对流单体随着平流不断移入飓风中心,使得飓风中心垂直涡度增加,最终导致飓风强度的增强。      

台风“Chanchu”变性过程位涡及锋生特征分析

利用非静力中尺度WRF模式输出的0601号"Chanchu"台风模拟资料分析了台风变性过程中的结构演变特征,并从位涡的角度,利用湿位涡方程对"Chanchu"变性过程中强度减弱但却能引发强风暴雨的原因进行了探讨。分析表明:台风在变性过程中,尺度逐渐增大并与东移南下的高空槽不断接近,在与高空槽相互作用之前,台风眼壁及外围雨带雷达回波减弱,最大风速减小,最大风速半径圈向外拓展;高低层位涡相接之后,由于高层正位涡的下传携带冷空气侵入台风,在低层锋区上诱发出气旋性环流,进而重新引发强对流,并在角动量的输送作用下,台风外围环流风速再次增大。变性后高空槽和台风在位相上仍有一定距离,高空槽仅与台风的外围环流相互作用,冷空气没有入侵台风内部,这是"Chanchu"没有重新加强的原因之一。利用锋生函数对引起锋生的各分量进行分析,结果显示非绝热加热是造成锋生的主要原因,散度和变形项的贡献次之,倾斜项对锋生几乎没有贡献。     

浙江沿海登陆台风结构特性的多普勒雷达资料分析

利用浙江省新一代多普勒雷达组网资料,选取在浙江东南沿海近乎同一地点登陆的3个台风进行研究。从登陆前6 h到登陆后7 h,对比分析3个台风在登陆前后的雷达回波和降水结构时空变化特征。利用单多普勒雷达四维变分风场反演技术,对温州多普勒雷达探测资料进行了风场反演。结合利用雷达回波强度资料,对3个台风登陆前后1 h在云岩、昌禅等地造成特大暴雨的中尺度对流系统的三维结构及其演变特征进行了详细分析。结果表明,台风强度与其螺旋云带中的对流单体密切相关。台风强度愈强,其中低层环状平均回波强度就愈强,对流活动也就愈旺盛,降水强度也愈大。台风登陆前,回波(雨带)从眼墙向外围传播。台风登陆后,随着台风外围回波(雨带)明显减弱,台风眼墙回波(雨带)则明显增强,台风眼区逐渐被强回波所取代,使台风登陆后眼墙的平均雨强比登陆前增大。台风登陆后1 h,由于低(高)层水平辐合(散)增强,强对流回波中倾斜的上升(下沉)气流明显增大,使对流运动更加活跃,造成登陆后1 h的降雨量显著增强。台风强度与登陆后1 h降雨量的增强幅度成正比。台风强度越强,垂直风切变就越大,垂直切变风速大值区与最大降雨区有较好的对应关系。台风登陆后1 h,垂直切变风速的明显增加对登陆台风螺旋雨带中的中小尺度对流的加强和维持起到了非常重要的作用。     

飑线发展过程中回波合并的特征分析

基于区域自动气象站资料、济南新一代多普勒天气雷达资料,对2012年8月18日山东省境内飑线发展过程中对流单体之间以及弓形回波与对流单体之间的合并特征进行了细致分析。结果表明:1)合并过程经历了合并初期、合并中期和完全合并期。云桥位于雷暴中层,合并过程中回波强度先减弱再增强。2)合并的结果是,上游回波减弱并入下游回波,为下游回波提供了丰富的水汽,产生的下沉出流与暖湿空气辐合,增强了下游回波的上升运动,促使下游回波持续发展并替代老回波(属喂养型合并)。合并促使低层小尺度涡旋强度增强、底高降低,出现中气旋或非相关切变。3)对流单体与单体合并中期,两者强度减弱,完全合并期则强度增强。低层涡旋尺度小、强度强,中气旋或非相关切变的垂直伸展厚度和最大切变值较大、底高低,产生的龙卷持续时间长、影响范围大、造成灾害重。4)弓形回波与对流单体合并过程中,单体一直处于发展阶段,弓形回波在完全合并期减弱。低层涡旋尺度大、强度弱。5)龙卷的强度与中气旋或非相关切变的底高、垂直伸展厚度及最大切变值有关。单体合并过程中,若中气旋(或非相关切变)的底高或最大切变的高度降低,或者最大切变值出现跃增,则可能出现龙卷。弓形回波顶点附近有对流单体合并,易出现龙卷。     

初始涡旋结构对热带气旋强度变化影响的数值研究

本文利用中尺度WRF模式,通过构造3个位于不同高度上强度相同的初始涡旋暖心中心(分别称为Low试验、Mid试验和High试验),认识暖心垂直结构对热带气旋发展的影响。理想数值试验发现,在积分6 h后在Low试验和Mid试验中最大风速半径开始收缩,眼墙内对流发展,高层暖心发展明显比High试验强,强度增加明显快于High试验,达到快速增强的标准。进一步诊断发现,暖心偏低的试验中初始CAPE值较大,低层风垂直切变较强,有利于眼墙内对流发展,非绝热加热在高层暖心形成过程中起重要作用,最大风速半径收缩比High试验快,热带气旋强度快速增加。本研究清楚表明,数值预报模式中构造初始涡旋的暖心高度对模拟热带气旋的强度发展有重要影响。     

台风“珍珠”(2006)螺旋雨带发展机制的数值模拟研究

基于2 km分辨率的ARW-WRF数值模拟资料,讨论了台风"珍珠"(2006)螺旋雨带中对流单体及内雨带的发展机制。结果表明:模式很好地再现了台风的路径和强度。作为雨带中仅仅存在于眼壁外侧的内雨带,其传播机制与重力波、涡旋Rossby波及混合波没有联系,其可能发展机制仅与低层出流、水平风场和变形场有关。低层出流使得内雨带径向向外运动,而低层的水平风场和变形场使其形成螺旋结构。同时,就螺旋雨带中精细对流单体的发展而言,涡度收支方程定量分析表明,其主要通过两种方式获得垂直涡度:水平涡度倾斜为垂直涡度;上升运动拉伸垂直涡度。随着平流输送,对流单体在眼壁附近合并和汇聚。     

一次龙卷风天气的特征分析

利用河南濮阳CINRDA/SB多普勒雷达探测资料,结合常规天气图资料、地面加密自动站资料等,对2009年7月16日发生在河南濮阳的龙卷天气过程进行诊断分析,结果表明:这次龙卷天气过程发生在副热带高压边缘西北侧、低空急流左前方的暖切变线附近;龙卷发生前大气环境具有较大的对流不稳定能量,低层存在大的风垂直切变和丰富的水汽;多普勒雷达反射率因子图上表现为移动的弓形回波北段强烈发展形成钩状回波,龙卷生成于钩状回波弱回波区附近。径向速度图上表现为在大范围入流风场中出现伴有辐合的γ中尺度气旋式涡旋,涡旋进一步发展加强导致其中央龙卷涡旋的产生,产生龙卷风天气。另外,强回波、低回波顶高、低层强垂直风切变都是这次龙卷过程中多普勒雷达产品特征。     

1822号台风“山竹”的涡旋Rossby波特征分析

采用WRF中尺度模式对2018年22号台风“山竹”进行高分辨率的数值模拟,在此基础上,分析台风的精细动力结构和雨带特征。分析结果发现,台风“山竹”的眼墙处具有低层辐合流入、高层辐散流出的动力配置;台风眼墙附近存在切向风速的高值区和明显的垂直上升区,并且随着高度逐渐向外侧倾斜,同时该处的雷达回波也较强,对流系统较为深厚。然后利用尺度分离方法得到涡旋罗斯贝(Rossby）波的扰动场,进一步分析了台风“山竹”内部的涡旋Rossby波特征。研究发现：1）1波和2波会同时沿着切向和径向方向传播,2波的振幅明显小于1波;1波和2波的正涡度扰动大值区基本覆盖强的雷达回波区域,同时伴有较强的对流活动。2）垂直方向上,降水区的涡度扰动呈现出上层为正、下层为负的动力配置时,同时散度扰动的垂直方向也有类似配置时,则会加强对流系统的发展,有利于降水的增强。由此可见,1波和2波扰动的上层辐散下层辐合的动力配置会促使对流系统的加强,同时也会对台风降水的强度和分布有一定的作用。     

Lightning activity and its relationship with typhoon intensity and vertical wind shear for Super Typhoon Haiyan (1330)

Super Typhoon Haiyan (1330), which occurred in 2013, is the most powerful typhoon during landfall in the meteorological record. In this study, the temporal and spatial distributions of lightning activity of Haiyan were analyzed by using the lightning data from the World Wide Lightning Location Network, typhoon intensity and position data from the China Meteorological Administration, and horizontal wind data from the ECMWF. Three distinct regions were identified in the spatial distribution of daily average lightning density, with the maxima in the inner core and the minima in the inner rainband. The lightning density in the intensifying stage of Haiyan was greater than that in its weakening stage. During the time when the typhoon intensity measured with maximum sustained wind speed was between 32.7 and 41.4 ms^?1, the storm had the largest lightning density in the inner core, compared with other intensity stages. In contrast to earlier typhoon studies, the eyewall lightning burst out three times. The first two eyewall lightning outbreaks occurred during the period of rapid intensification and before the maximum intensity of the storm, suggesting that the eyewall lightning activity could be used to identify the change in tropical cyclone intensity. The flashes frequently occurred in the inner core, and in the outer rainbands with the black body temperature below 220 K. Combined with the ECMWF wind data, the influences of vertical wind shear (VWS) on the azimuthal distribution of flashes were also analyzed, showing that strong VWS produced downshear left asymmetry of lightning activity in the inner core and downshear right asymmetry in the rainbands.     

Lightning Activity and Its Relationship with Typhoon Intensity and Vertical Wind Shear for Super Typhoon Haiyan(1330)

Super Typhoon Haiyan(1330), which occurred in 2013, is the most powerful typhoon during landfall in the meteorological record. In this study, the temporal and spatial distributions of lightning activity of Haiyan were analyzed by using the lightning data from the World Wide Lightning Location Network,typhoon intensity and position data from the China Meteorological Administration, and horizontal wind data from the ECMWF. Three distinct regions were identified in the spatial distribution of daily average lightning density, with the maxima in the inner core and the minima in the inner rainband. The lightning density in the intensifying stage of Haiyan was greater than that in its weakening stage. During the time when the typhoon intensity measured with maximum sustained wind speed was between 32.7 and 41.4 m s-1, the storm had the largest lightning density in the inner core, compared with other intensity stages.In contrast to earlier typhoon studies, the eyewall lightning burst out three times. The first two eyewall lightning outbreaks occurred during the period of rapid intensification and before the maximum intensity of the storm, suggesting that the eyewall lightning activity could be used to identify the change in tropical cyclone intensity. The flashes frequently occurred in the inner core, and in the outer rainbands with the black body temperature below 220 K. Combined with the ECMWF wind data, the influences of vertical wind shear(VWS) on the azimuthal distribution of flashes were also analyzed, showing that strong VWS produced downshear left asymmetry of lightning activity in the inner core and downshear right asymmetry in the rainbands.     

Sensitivity of the simulation of tropical cyclone size to microphysics schemes

The sensitivity of the simulation of tropical cyclone(TC) size to microphysics schemes is studied using the Advanced Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model(WRF). Six TCs during the 2013 western North Pacific typhoon season and three mainstream microphysics schemes–Ferrier(FER), WRF Single-Moment 5-class(WSM5) and WRF Single-Moment6-class(WSM6)–are investigated. The results consistently show that the simulated TC track is not sensitive to the choice of microphysics scheme in the early simulation, especially in the open ocean. However, the sensitivity is much greater for TC intensity and inner-core size. The TC intensity and size simulated using the WSM5 and WSM6 schemes are respectively higher and larger than those using the FER scheme in general, which likely results from more diabatic heating being generated outside the eyewall in rainbands. More diabatic heating in rainbands gives higher inflow in the lower troposphere and higher outflow in the upper troposphere, with higher upward motion outside the eyewall. The lower-tropospheric inflow would transport absolute angular momentum inward to spin up tangential wind predominantly near the eyewall, leading to the increment in TC intensity and size(the inner-core size, especially). In addition, the inclusion of graupel microphysics processes(as in WSM6) may not have a significant impact on the simulation of TC track, intensity and size.     

The Dynamical Characteristics and Wave Structure of Typhoon Rananim （2004）

Typhoon Rananim (2004) was one of the severest typhoons landfalling the Chinese mainland from 1996 to 2004. It brought serious damage and induced prodigious economical loss. Using a new generation of mesoscale model, named the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) modeling system, with 1.667 km grid horizontal spacing on the finest nested mesh, Rananim was successfully simulated in terms of track, intensity, eye, eyewall, and spiral rainbands. We compared the structures of Rananim to those of hurricanes in previous studies and observations to assess the validity of simulation. The three-dimensional (3D) dynamic and thermal structures of eye and eyewall were studied based on the simulated results. The focus was investigation of the characteristics of the vortex Rossby waves in the inner-core region. We found that the Rossby vortex waves propagate azimuthally upwind against the azimuthal mean tangential flow around the eyewall, and their period was longer than that of an air parcel moving within the azimuthal mean tangential flow. They also propagated outward against the boundary layer inflow of the azimuthal mean vortex. Futhermore, we studied the connection between the spiral potential vorticity (PV) bands and spiral rainbands, and found that the vortex Rossby waves played an important role in the formation process of spiral rainbands.     

A High-resolution Simulation of Supertyphoon Rammasun (2014) —— Part I: Model Verification and Surface Energetics Analysis

A 72-h high-resolution simulation of Supertyphoon Rammasun (2014) is performed using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting model. The model covers an initial 18-h spin-up, the 36-h rapid intensification (RI) period in the northern South China Sea, and the 18-h period of weakening after landfall. The results show that the model reproduces the track, intensity, structure of the storm, and environmental circulations reasonably well. Analysis of the surface energetics under the storm indicates that the storm's intensification is closely related to the net energy gain rate (ε g), defined as the difference between the energy production (P D) due to surface entropy flux and the energy dissipation (D S) due to surface friction near the radius of maximum wind (RMW). Before and during the RI stage, the ε g is high, indicating sufficient energy supply for the storm to intensify. However, the ε g decreases rapidly as the storm quickly intensifies, because the D S increases more rapidly than the P D near the RMW. By the time the storm reaches its peak intensity, the D S is about 20% larger than the P D near the RMW, leading to a local energetics deficit under the eyewall. During the mature stage, the P D and D S can reach a balance within a radius of 86 km from the storm center (about 2.3 times the RMW). This implies that the local P D under the eyewall is not large enough to balance the D S, and the radially inward energy transport from outside the eyewall must play an important role in maintaining the storm's intensity, as well as its intensification.     

Effect of tropical cyclone intensity and instability on the evolution of spiral bands

The evolution of spiral-band-like structures triggered by asymmetric heating in three tropical-cyclone-like vortices of different intensities is examined using the Three-Dimensional Vortex Perturbation Analyzer and Simulator （3DVPAS） model. To simulate the spiral bands, asymmetric thermal perturbations are imposed on the radius of maximum wind （RMW） of vortices, which can be considered as the location near the eyewall of real tropical cyclones （TCs）. All the three vortices experience a hydrostatic adjustment after the introduction of thermal asymmetries. It takes more time for weaker and stable vortices to finish such a process. The spiral-band-like structures, especially those distant from the vortex centers, form and evolve accompanying this process. In the quasi-balance state, the spiral bands are gradually concentrated to the inner core, the wave behavior of which resembles the features of classic vortex Rossby （VR） waves. The unstable vortices regain nonhydrostatic features after the quasi-balance stage. The spiral bands further from the vortex center, similar to distant spiral bands in real TCs, form and maintain more easily in the moderate basic-state vortex, satisfying the conditions of barotropic instability. The widest radial extent and longest-lived distant bands always exist in weak and stable vortices. This study represents an attempt to determine the role of TC intensity and stability in the formation and evolution of spiral bands via hydrostatic balance adjustment, and provides some valuable insights into the formation of distant spiral rainbands.