FORECASTING THE MJO INDEX BASED ON SSA-AR

Experiments of forecasting daily bi-variate index of the tropical atmospheric Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) are performed in the context of adaptive filtering prediction models by combining the singular spectrum analysis (SSA) with the autoregressive (AR) methods.the MJO index,a pair of empirical orthogonal function (EOF) time series,called RMM1 and RMM2,predicts by the combined statistical SSA and AR models:firstly,according to the index of historic observation decomposed by SSA and then reconstructed by selecting the first several components based on prominent variance contributions;after that,established an AR prediction model from the composite (scheme A) or built the forecast models for each of these selected reconstructed components,separately (Scheme B).Several experimental MJO index forecasts are performed based on the models.The results show that both models have useful skills of the MJO index forecast beyond two weeks.In some cases,the correlation coefficient between the observed and predicted index series stays above 0.5 in 20 leading days.The SSA-AR model,based on the reconstructed composite series,has better performance on MJO forecast than the AR model,especially for the leading time longer than 5 days.Therefore,if we build a real-time forecast system by the SSA-AR model,it might provide an applicable tool for the operational prediction of the MJO index.     

不同时间尺度下气象旱涝强度评估指数

基于逐日气象干旱指数,构建了可以反映某一时段内气象旱涝强度的标准化阶段气象旱涝强度指数 (staged meteorological drought intensity index, I_SD) 和阶段气象旱涝时间分布状态的标准化阶段气象旱涝空间分布差异指数 (staged meteorological drought discrepancy index, I_SDD)。以构建昆明月尺度的I_SD和I_SDD为例说明了阶段气象旱涝指数的构建方法,通过对不同时段降水距平百分率、I_SD, I_SDD和标准降水指数 (standardized precipitation index, I_SP) 的对比分析,结合降水及逐日气象干旱指数 (multi-scale standardized precipitation index, I_MSP) 的演变,验证了I_SD和I_SDD的有效性。对于任一站点的不同时间尺度,两个指数可以在日尺度到年尺度乃至更大的时间尺度上进行计算,通过Boltzmann函数来构建I_SD和I_SDD的方法具有很好的拓展应用性,其他气象干旱指数也可以采用该方法来构建阶段干旱指数。     

An Index Measuring the Interannual Variation of the East Asian Summer Monsoon ——The EAP Index

Based on the EAP (East Asia/Pacific) teleconnection in the summer circulation anomalies over ther Northern Hemisphere, an index measuring the strength of the East Asian summer monsoon, i.e., the so-called EAP index, is defined in this paper. From the analyses of observed data, it is clearly shown that the EAP index defined in this study can well describe the interannual variability of summer rainfall and surface air temperature in East Asia, especially in the Yangtze River valley and the Huaihe River valley, Korea,and Japan. Moreover, this index can also reflect the interannual variability of the East Asian summer monsoon system including the monsoon horizontal circulation and the vertical-meridional circulation cell over East Asia. From the composite analyses of climate and monsoon circulation anomalies for high EAP index and for low EAP index, respectively, it is well demonstrated that the EAP index proposed in this study can well measure the strength of the East Asian summer monsoon.     

STUDY OF A COMPREHENSIVE MONITORING INDEX FOR TWO TYPES OF ENSO EVENTS

Some recent studies presented two existing types of ENSO events, one is the Eastern-Pacific(EP) type and the other the Central-Pacific(CP) type. This study examined the monitoring ability of several current operational ENSO indices. The results indicated that a single index could not distinguish the EP and CP in the historical ENSO events during 1950-2009. The Nio 3 index may only be suitable for monitoring the EP-type ENSO, while the Nio 4 index works only for the CP-type ENSO. In order to capture the occurrence of ENSO events and distinguish the type, we considered a new monitoring index group using Nio 3 and Nio 4 indices. Further analysis confirmed that this index group can monitor different types of historical ENSO events with different spatial distribution of sea surface temperature. It has a good performance in determining the characteristics of the ENSO events, including peak intensity, onset,decay, and mature phase.     

Indices of El Nio and El Nio Modoki:An Improved El Nio Modoki Index

In recent years, El Nio Modoki (a type of pseudo-El Nio) has been distinguished as a unique large-scale ocean warming phenomenon happening in the central tropical Pacific that is quite different from the traditional El Nio. In this study, EOF analysis was used to successfully separate El Nio and El Nio Modoki. The abilities of the NINO3 index, NINO3.4 index, NINO1+2 index and NINO4 index in characterizing El Nio were explored in detail. The resulting suggestion was that, comparatively, NINO3 is the op...     

The Connection between the Sea Surface Height Anomaly Preceding the Indian Ocean Dipole and Summer Rainfall in China

The sea surface height anomaly(SSHA) signals leading the fall Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD) are investigated. The results suggest that, prior to the IOD by one year, a positive SSHA emerges over the western-central tropical Pacific(WCTP), which peaks during winter(January-February-March, JFM), persists into late spring and early summer(April-May-June, AMJ), and becomes weakened later on. An SSHA index, referred as to SSHA_WCTP, is defined as the averaged SSHA over the WCTP during JFM. The index is not only significantly positively correlated with the following-fall(September-October-November, SON) IOD index, but also is higher than the autocorrelation of the IOD index crossing the two different seasons. The connection of SSHA_ WCTP with following-summer rainfall in China is then explored. The results suggest that higher(lower) SSHA_ WCTP corresponds to increased(reduced) rainfall over southern coastal China, along with suppressed(increased) rainfall over the middle–lower reaches of the Yangtze River, North China, and the Xinjiang region of northwestern China. Mechanistically, following the preceding-winter higher(lower) SSHA_WCTP, the South Asia High and the Western Pacific Subtropical High are weakened(intensified), which results in the East Asian summer monsoon weakening(intensifying). Finally, the connection between SSHA_WCTP and El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) is analyzed. Despite a significant correlation, SSHA_WCTP is more closely connected with summer rainfall. This implies that the SSHA_WCTP index in the preceding winter is a more effective predictor of summer rainfall in comparison with ENSO.     

An East Asian Subtropical Summer Monsoon Index Defined by Moist Potential Vorticity

Based on consideration of both thermodynamic and kinetic features of the subtropical summer monsoon in East Asia,a new index is defined by the moist potential vorticity (MPV) for this monsoon.Variation features of the subtropical summer monsoon over 60 years are analyzed using National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (USA) data from 1948 to 2007.Results show that the new index can well reflect the seasonal,interannual,and interdecadal variations of the East Asian subtropical summer monsoon.Correlation analysis of the new index and precipitation data from 160 stations in China shows that in high-index years,the summer monsoon is strong,and more rain falls in eastern North China,southwestern China,and along the coast of South China and less rain falls in the Yangtze-Huaihe R.basin.In low-index years,the opposite occurs.Lastly,the new index is compared with four established monsoon indices.The new index is found to have an advantage in representing summer rainfall in the Yangtze-Huaihe R.basin.     

INTERANNUAL VARIATION OF INDEX OF EAST ASIAN LAND-SEA THERMAL DIFFERENCE AND ITS RELATION TO MONSOON CIRCULATION AND RAINFALL OVER CHINA

This paper proposes an index of land-sea thermal difference(ILSTD)that describes its zonal andmeridional strength responsible for East Asian monsoon circulation to study its relation to the EastAsian monsoon circulation and the summer rainfall over China on an interannual basis.Results are asfollows:(1)ILSTD can be used to measure the strength of East Asian summer monsoon in such away that the strong(weak)ILSTD years are associated with strong(weak)summer monsooncirculation.(2)The index also reflects well summer rainfall anomaly over the eastern part of China.In the strong index years,rain belt is mainly located over the northern China,and serious droughtemerges in the Jianghuai valleys and mid-lower reaches of the Changjiang River,along with increaseof rainfall in North and South China,but in the weak years it is contrary.(3)Besides,the index hasobvious QBO and quasi 4-year oscillations,but the periods and amplitudes have significant changes onan interdecadal basis.     

桑斯维特修订的水份区划方法介绍

1931年桑斯维特建立了一种气候区划方法,即采用有效雨量(降水与蒸发之比值)的分布来进行分类。1948年他又根据在美国中西部和墨西哥等地进行灌溉试验时所得的数据(1936—1945年)提出可能蒸散(potential evapotranspiration,用PE表示)这一指标作为气候分类依据,并修订了他原来的气候区划方法。在表达大气湿润状况时用的是有效雨量湿润指数(moisture index)。同时为了便于计算,桑斯维特和马瑟(J.R.Mather)于1957年制作了一系列表格从而简化了烦杂的计算,该方法在南、北美洲应用较广,具体介绍如下: 一、年中某一时期的降水(P)如超过实际蒸散量(AE),则有多余水份(S),即S=P-AE时为湿润气候,其湿润指标(humidity index)为I_h=100S/PE,即剩余水份占可能蒸散的百分率。     

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TROPICAL ISO AND TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA

The relationship between the tropical intra-seasonal oscillation (ISO) and tropical cyclones (TCs) activities over the South China Sea (SCS) is investigated by utilizing the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) global reanalysis data and tropical cyclone best-track data from 1949 to 2009. The main conclusions are: (1) A new ISO index is designed to describe the tropical ISO activity over the SCS, which can simply express ISO for SCS. After examining the applicability of the index constructed by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), we find that the convection spatial scale reflected by this index is too large to characterize the small-scale SCS and fails to divide the TCs activities over the SCS into active and inactive categories. Consequently, the CPC index can’t replace the function of the new ISO index; (2) The eastward spread process of tropical ISO is divided into eight phases using the new ISO index, the phase variation of which corresponds well with the TCs activities over the SCS. TCs generation and landing are significantly reduced during inactive period (phase 4-6) relative to that during active period (phase 7-3); (3) The composite analyses indicate distinct TCs activities over the SCS, which is consistent with the concomitant propagation of the ISO convective activity. During ISO active period, the weather situations are favorable for TCs development over the SCS, e.g., strong convection, cyclonic shear and weak subtropical high, and vice versa; (4) The condensation heating centers, strong convection and water vapor flux divergence are well collocated with each other during ISO active period. In addition, the vertical profile of condensation heat indicates strong ascending motion and middle-level heating over the SCS during active period, and vice versa. Thus, the eastward propagation of tropical ISO is capable to modulate TCs activities by affecting the heating configuration over the SCS.     

基于MODIS时序植被指数和线性光谱混合模型的水稻面积提取

水稻是中国的主要粮食作物,及时获取水稻种植面积和空间分布信息对指导水稻生产、调整区域供需平衡等具有重要的意义。以江苏省为例,利用2009—2011年连续三年的MODIS 8 d合成地表反射率数据(MODIS09A1),计算了归一化差值植被指数(normalized difference vegetation index,NDVI)、增强型植被指数(enhanced vegetation index,EVI)和陆表水指数(land surface water index,LSWI)。结合水稻在不同生长发育期EVI的时间序列变化特征,确定了水稻面积提取的关键生育期。根据水稻移栽期稻田土壤含水量高的特征,利用NDVI、EVI和LSWI三种指数构建判别条件,确定可能种植水稻的区域。利用线性光谱混合像元分解模型对包含水稻的混合像元进行分解,得到江苏省三年水稻种植空间分布。最后,选取研究区内的水稻典型样区,利用与MODIS同时期的较高分辨率的环境小卫星HJ-1 CCD(30 m)数据提取水稻种植面积和空间分布,以此作为参考数据进行精度验证,同时利用统计部门的江苏省水稻种植面积统计数据对江苏省水稻面积进行验证,两种方法验证后表明误差均在10%以内。研究表明,采用MODIS09A1数据结合线性光谱混合模型可以更高精度地提取大范围的水稻种植面积。     

Impact of the Pacific–Japan Teleconnection Pattern on July Sea Fog over the Northwestern Pacific: Interannual Variations and Global Warming Effect

The northwestern Pacific(NWP) is a fog-prone area, especially the ocean east of the Kuril Islands. The present study analyzes how the Pacific–Japan(PJ) teleconnection pattern influences July sea fog in the fog-prone area using independent datasets. The covariation between the PJ index and sea fog frequency(SFF) index in July indicates a close correlation, with a coefficient of 0.62 exceeding the 99% confidence level. Composite analysis based on the PJ index, a case study, and model analysis based on GFDL-ESM2 M, show that in high PJ index years the convection over the east of the Philippines strengthens and then triggers a Rossby wave, which propagates northward to maintain an anticyclonic anomaly in the midlatitudes,indicating a northeastward shift of the NWP subtropical high. The anticyclonic anomaly facilitates the formation of relatively stable atmospheric stratification or even an inversion layer in the lower level of the troposphere, and strengthens the horizontal southerly moisture transportation from the tropical–subtropical oceans to the fog-prone area. On the other hand, a greater meridional SST gradient over the cold flank of the Kuroshio Extension, due to ocean downwelling, is produced by the anticyclonic wind stress anomaly. Both of these two aspects are favorable for the warm and humid air to cool, condense, and form fog droplets, when air masses cross the SST front. The opposite circumstances occur in low PJ index years, which are not conducive to the formation of sea fog. Finally, a multi-model ensemble mean projection reveals a prominent downward trend of the PJ index after the 2030 s, implying a possible decline of the SFF in this period.     

Northern Hemisphere Stratospheric Polar Vortex Extremes in February under the Control of Downward Wave Flux in the Lower Stratosphere

Using ECWMF ERA-40 and Interim reanalysis data, the planetary wave fluxes associated with the February extreme stratospheric polar vortex were studied. Using the three-dimensional Eliassen-Palm (EP) flux as a measure of the wave activity propagation, the authors show that the unusual warm years in the Arctic feature an anomalous weak stratosphere-troposphere coupling and weak downward wave flux at the lower stratosphere, especially over the North America and North Atlantic (NANA) region. The extremely cold years are characterized by strong stratosphere-troposphere coupling and strong downward wave flux in this region. The refractive index is used to examine the conception of planetary wave reflection, which shows a large refractive index (low reflection) for the extremely warm years and a small refractive index (high reflection) for the extremely cold years. This study reveals the importance of the downward planetary wave propagation from the stratosphere to the troposphere for explaining the unusual state of the stratospheric polar vortex in February.     

Profile and Character of Atmospheric Structure Constant of Refractive Index Cn2

Random fluctuations of turbulence bring random fluctuations of the refractive index, making the atmosphere a random fluctuation medium that destroys the coherence of light-waves. Research in atmospheric turbulence is actually the investigation of the atmospheric refractive index. The atmospheric structure constant of refractive index, Cn2, is an important parameter denoting atmospheric turbulence. In this paper, Cn2 is measured during the day and at night and in all four seasons using a high sensitivity micro-thermal meter QHTP-2. The vertical profile of Cn2 in Hefei (0–30 km) is investigated by the analysis of experimental data. The average profile of Cn2 in Hefei exhibits conspicuous day and night differences with increased altitude. The distribution of log(Cn2) is nearly normal and has conspicuous seasonal differences.     

我国台风灾害年景预评估方法初探

本文以热带气旋年潜在影响力指数(yearly tropical cyclone potential tmpact index,YTCPI)为纽带,初步探讨了我国台风灾害年景预评估方法,预评估检验结果显示,1991 2008年,除1996、1997和2004年预估年景偏轻外,其他年份均与实际年景相一致;2009—2013年独立样本预估结果显示,只有2009年没有预估正确;总体上可以看出借助YTCPI指数来预评估台风灾害年景是可行的。     

The Significant Relationship between the Arctic Oscillation (AO) in December and the January Climate over South China

Using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the China rainfall and surface temperature data of the China Meteorological Administration, and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) indices of NOAA, the author investigates relationships between the AO and the precipitation and temperature over China. There exists a good relationship between the AO index in December and the succeeding January precipitation over South China, indicating that when the December AO index is positive (negative), the January precipitation over South China increases (decreases). A remarkable negative correlation between the December AO index and the January surface temperature also exists over South China, indicating that when the December AO index is positive (negative), the January temperature over South China drops (rises). The occurrence of this anomalous climate is related to the anomalies of the atmospheric circulation systems. The December AO greatly influences circulation anomalies in January. A positive phase of the AO is found to lead to a stronger subtropical jet over the south side from the Iran Plateau to the Tibetan Plateau. Consequently, it results in a deepening pressure trough around the Bay of Bengal, which transports the warm and wet air to South China continuously. The Siberian High in January is stronger and extends farther southeastward. It results in continual cold air at 1000 hPa pouring into South China, inducing low temperature. Cooperating with the trough of the Bay of Bengal, anomalous precipitation occurs over South China. For the negative phase of the December AO, the opposite situation is observed.     

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DIPOLE OSCILLATION OF SSTA OF AND TEMPERATURE IN CHINA

The work is a general survey SSTA data of the Indian Ocean and of precipitation at 160 Chinese weather stations over 1951～1997(47years).It reveals that the dipole oscillation of SST,especially the dipole index of March～May,in the eastern and western parts of the ocean correlates well with the precipitation during the June～August raining season in China.As shown in analysis of 500-hPa Northern Hemisphere geopotential height height by NCEP for 1958-1995,the Indian Ocean dipole index(IODI) is closely related with geopotential height anomalies in the middle-and higher-latitudes in the Eurasian region.As a negative phase year of IODI corresponds to significant Pacific-Japan(PJ) wavetrain,it is highly likely that the SST for the dipole may affect the precipitation in China through the wavetrain.Additionally,correlation analysis of links between SST dipole index of the Indian Ocean region and air temperature in China also shows good correlation between the former and wintertime temperature in southern China.     

On the relationship between 100-hPa South Asia High and Mei-yu in Jiangsu province

By analyzing the change of an index for the characteristics of South Asia High and variations of upper-air troughs in 2002–2005,we studied the impact of South Asia high on the beginning and ending of the Mei-yu(i.e.sustained rain corresponding to the ripening season of plum)in Jiangsu province.Statistic verification is conducted on the relationships between the index and the Mei-yu season in 1991–2005 to examine the impacts of the SAH characteristics index on a rain intensity index of Mei-yu and regional distribution of a characteristics index for different annual patterns of Mei-yu.Historical composite is performed of the 100-hPa circulation field for these patterns using the 100-hPa geopotential height of Northern Hemisphere from 2002 to 2005 and 45-year NCEP reanalysis to study the difference in the circulation for different patterns of Mei-yu.Diagnostic and statistic conclusions,which share much in common,have been obtained as follows.(1)The characteristics preceding to and the advancement/retreat of SAH and the movement of westerly troughs are the factors that influence the onset time of the Mei-yu season;after the Mei-yu onset,the progression/withdrawal of SAH and how farther east it extends are determining how long the Mei-yu lasts and when it ends.(2)During the Mei-yu,the general 100-hPa circulation situation and average characteristics of the SAH are well corresponding to the characteristics of the season and annual patterns of Mei-yu.In addition,the averages of the SAH ridgeline and east-extending index for June,July and the Mei-yu season have some implications to the forecast of the index of Mei-yu intensity.These conclusions can be served as powerful means in determining the starting/ending dates, duration and annual pattern of the Mei-yu season.     

The Relationship between the Meridional Profile of Zonal mean Geostrophic Wind and Station Wave at 500 hPa

The sea-level pressure (SLP), 500 hPa height, zonal-mean 500 hPa height ([Z500]), stationary wave ed dy component of the 500 hPa height (Z*500) and zonal-mean 500 hPa geostrophic wind [Ug ] fields poleward of 20°N are examined for the period 1958-1997, with emphasis on the winter season. The relationships be tween the Arctic Oscillation (AO)index and algebraic difference of the zonal-mean wind in 55°N and 35°N (Ut) index were investigated, making use the Monte Carlo procedure, Singular Value Decomposition (SVD), Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and regression method. The leading modes of empirical orthogonal function (EOF＇s) of SLP are more robust than the 500 hPa height EOF＇s, not only in the ratio of the two largest eigenvalues, but in more zonally symmetric. Comparing the meridional profiles of zonal-mean wind amplitude associated with the AO and Ut index, the profiles for the two indexes are very similar, both with respect to amplitude and the placement of the maximum and minimum. Comparing the station wave component of 500 hPa height field regressed upon the AO and Ut index, there is one-to-one correspondence between all the major centers of action in the two maps, especially in the North Atlantic and Eurasian continent. The pattern is unlike the prominent teleconnection patterns, they have hemispheric ex tent and cannot be interpreted in term of the individual wavetrains.     

A MULTI-STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (SO) AND ITS RELATION TO THE MEAN MONTHLY ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION AT 500 hPa IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE

In this paper the correlation analysis, factor analysis, fuzzy classification, and principal component analysis (PCA) are performed for the southern oscillation index (SOI) from the Climate Analysis Center (CAC) at the NOAA. It is shown that the 12-month SOI can be classified into two groups: one from January through April and the other from May through December. They differ in persistency and correlation. It is also found that the year of strong or weak SO can be defined by the first principal component of the SOI. The 11 years of weak SO thus defined contain 9 El Nino events.In addition, the relations between the SOI and 500 hPa geopotential height, mean monthly zonal height, mean monthly interzonal height differences, centers of atmospheric activities, characteristics of the atmospheric circulation (the intensity index of the north polar vortex, the area index of the subtropical West Pacific high, mean monthly zonal and meridional circulation indexes in Asia and Eurasia) in the period of 24 months fr