IPCC确定的几种未来大气CO_2浓度水平对人为CO_2排放的限制

用三维海洋碳循环模式和一个简单的陆地生物圈模式计算了ＩＰＣＣ（政府间气候变化委员会）未来大气ＣＯ２情景中海洋和生物圈的吸收，并结合上地变化的资料得出燃料的排放值。结果表明：尽管在所有的构想下，为了使大气中ＣＯ２浓度达到稳定必须减少排放，但对应不同的ＩＰＣＣ未来大气ＣＯ２情景，对人为ＣＯ２排放的限制是很不相同的。     

海洋对人为CO2吸收的三维模式研究

文中用包含海洋化学过程和一个简单生物过程的三维碳循环模式模拟了海洋对大气CO2 的吸收 ,并分析了碳吸收的纬度分布。模拟工业革命以来海洋对大气 CO2 的吸收表明 :海洋碳吸收再加上大气 CO2 的增加只占由化石燃料燃烧、森林砍伐和土地利用的变化而释放到大气中的 CO2 的 2 /3。1 980～ 1 989年期间海洋年平均吸收 2 .0 5Gt C。海洋人为 CO2 的吸收有明显的纬度特征。模式计算的海洋 CO2 的吸收在总量与纬度分布上与观测结果比较相符。     

印度洋二维碳循环模式中表层CO2分压分布对物理和生化过程的敏感性试验

利用二维印度洋碳循环模式的模拟结果,集中对表层海洋中的CO2分压分布及其控制因子、海洋生物对海气CO2交换的影响、海洋营养物含量的改变和海洋环流的改变对大气CO2浓度的影响等进行了深入的分析和讨论,并与实际的GEOSECS观测数据的分析结果做比较;研究了与表层海洋CO2分压相关的海洋条件,较详细讨论了形成海洋表层CO2源与汇系统的决定因素及其相对重要性,得到了海洋热力因子和海洋环流对海洋表层的CO2化学过程起着决定性作用而生物过程仅处于次要地位的重要结论。此外,还利用建立的海洋碳模式进行了一些有意义的数值试验,详细讨论了海洋的物理化学因子改变对大气CO2浓度的可能影响。       

ENSO,火山活动与大气CO2的年际变化

利用大气CO2及其δ13C的观测数据分析了不同区域大气CO2的季节和年际变化特征,并结合δ13C的变化趋势判断大气CO2变化的主要影响因素是来自陆地还是海洋.结果表明:大气CO2的年际变化主要受ENSO引起的陆地植被初级生产量而不是海洋吸收变化的影响,且La Ni(n)a对大气CO2的影响大于El Ni(n)o.火山活...     

二维海洋温盐环流碳循环模式

提供了由二维温盐环流动力学模式得到的定常流场驱动的海洋碳循环模式。在认为海洋生物碳循环达到动态平衡的情况下，着重研究了无机碳的循环。在给定的工业革命前的大气CO2浓度强迫下，对海洋碳循环模式积分5000年后，使其达到稳态。对于人为扰动，采用给定大气CO2浓度作为上边界条件，结果是，1980年至1989年海洋能吸收人为排放CO2的36%。通过使用CO2的工业排放源和大气及海洋的联合模式，得到1980至1989年的边际气留比为0.66。比较两种方法所得的结果，可推出在工业革命前存在着非工业源，即生物源；1940年以后，则还存在着一个未知的汇。     

南水北调东线工程流域未来气候变化预估

利用国家气候中心全球大气海洋环流模式(NCC／IAP T63)，考虑IPCC SRES A2(高排放)和A1B(中等排放)两种人类排放情景，对2030年前南水北调东线工程流域气候变化进行了预估。结果表明，由于人类活动，未来30a东线区域将变暖，尤以1月(冬季)东线北部地区变暖最明显，其中A2情景，2010年1月变暖约5℃，2020年1月变暖约7℃。7月(夏季)东线南部变暖最小，其中，2010年为0.2℃，2020年为0.9℃。值得注意的是，人类活动对未来30a东线区域降水的影响不明显，A2情景可能略有增加趋势，A1B情景可能略有减少趋势。     

中国2050年的能源需求与CO2排放情景

利用国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所能源环境综合政策评价模型（IPAC模型）,对中国未来中长期的能源需求与CO2排放情景进行了分析,对该情景的主要参数和结果进行了介绍,并对模型中的政策评价进行了介绍。同时报告了实现减排所需的技术。结果显示：未来中国经济将快速增长,能源需求和相应的CO2排放也将明显快速增加,与2005年相比,2030年能源需求可能增加1.4倍,2050年可能增加1.9倍。但中国也有较大的机会在2020年之后将能源需求量的增加幅度明显减小,将CO2排放控制住,使之不再出现明显增长,甚至有可能在2030年之后下降。     

中国2050年的能源需求与CO2排放情景

 利用国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所能源环境综合政策评价模型（IPAC模型）,对中国未来中长期的能源需求与CO2排放情景进行了分析,对该情景的主要参数和结果进行了介绍,并对模型中的政策评价进行了介绍。同时报告了实现减排所需的技术。结果显示：未来中国经济将快速增长,能源需求和相应的CO2排放也将明显快速增加,与2005年相比,2030年能源需求可能增加1.4倍,2050年可能增加1.9倍。但中国也有较大的机会在2020年之后将能源需求量的增加幅度明显减小,将CO2排放控制住,使之不再出现明显增长,甚至有可能在2030年之后下降。     

二维的大气CO2——大西洋碳循环模式

本文描述了一个二维（纬度×深度）的大西洋碳循环模式，模拟了大气和海洋间CO2的交换以及碳在海洋中的输送过程。模式在运行时使用了一个12层的三维动力学模拟的海洋环流的结果。大西洋被划分成397个网格箱，每个箱子中各种形式的碳的含量、总碱度、溶解的无机营养物和溶解氧的浓度以及几种14C(碳14)同位素的值分别得到求解。模式稳定状态的计算采用解大型稀疏线性方程组的直接解法。计算结果与“地球化学的海洋研究（GEOSECS）”的实际观测数据对比，表明模式较好地再现了实际大西洋中几种化学量的分布。     

中国东部地区夏季 CO2浓度与对流层辐射加热关系

近百年来，随着工业的发展，CO2的排放量大大增加，由于CO2导致的全球大气温度升高这一问题引起了研究人员的高度重视。CO2引起的全球变暖可以引起气候和天气系统的变化，本文利用卫星资料（TOVS）和MODTRAN辐射传输模式，通过改变大气中CO2含量的方法讨论对流层中低层大气辐射加热带来的影响。     

全球二氧化碳循环的一维模式研究

本文用一个全球碳循环的一维模式重建了1860年以来的大气二氧化碳浓度。结果表明:(1) 模拟结果与冒纳罗亚（Mauna Loa）的观测结果之间存在极好的一致性；(2) 海洋虽然是人类活动释放的CO2的最重要的汇，但其作为碳汇的能力受到海洋缓冲效应的限制。海洋吸收CO2的速率还与某些响应过程密切相关；(3) 在全球碳循环中，生态系统的作用是双重的:人类活动对它的破坏使它成为CO2的源，而其对过量CO2的响应又使其成为CO2的一个汇。工业革命以来，人类对生态系统的破坏与其自身的恢复大致是同量级的；(4) 陆地生物圈缩短了整个碳循环系统对人为扰动的响应时间。     

Feedback mechanisms and sensitivities of ocean carbon uptake under global warming

Global warming simulations are performed with a coupled climate model of reduced complexity to investigate global warming–marine carbon cycle feedbacks. The model is forced by emissions of CO₂ and other greenhouse agents from scenarios recently developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and by CO₂ stabilization profiles. The uptake of atmospheric CO₂ by the ocean is reduced between 7 to 10% by year 2100 compared to simulations without global warming. The reduction is of similar size in the Southern Ocean and in low‐latitude regions (32.5°S‐32.5°N) until 2100, whereas low‐latitude regions dominate on longer time scales. In the North Atlantic the CO₂ uptake is enhanced, unless the Atlantic thermohaline circulation completely collapses. At high latitudes, biologically mediated changes enhance ocean CO₂ uptake, whereas in low‐latitude regions the situation is reversed. Different implementations of the marine biosphere yield a range of 5 to 16% for the total reduction in oceanic CO₂ uptake until year 2100. Modeled oceanic O₂ inventories are significantly reduced in global warming simulations. This suggests that the terrestrial carbon sink deduced from atmospheric O₂/N₂ observations is potentially overestimated if the oceanic loss of O₂ to the atmosphere is not considered.     

Global and regional ocean carbon uptake and climate change: sensitivity to a substantial mitigation scenario

Under future scenarios of business-as-usual emissions, the ocean storage of anthropogenic carbon is anticipated to decrease because of ocean chemistry constraints and positive feedbacks in the carbon-climate dynamics, whereas it is still unknown how the oceanic carbon cycle will respond to more substantial mitigation scenarios. To evaluate the natural system response to prescribed atmospheric ??target?? concentrations and assess the response of the ocean carbon pool to these values, 2 centennial projection simulations have been performed with an Earth System Model that includes a fully coupled carbon cycle, forced in one case with a mitigation scenario and the other with the SRES A1B scenario. End of century ocean uptake with the mitigation scenario is projected to return to the same magnitude of carbon fluxes as simulated in 1960 in the Pacific Ocean and to lower values in the Atlantic. With A1B, the major ocean basins are instead projected to decrease the capacity for carbon uptake globally as found with simpler carbon cycle models, while at the regional level the response is contrasting. The model indicates that the equatorial Pacific may increase the carbon uptake rates in both scenarios, owing to enhancement of the biological carbon pump evidenced by an increase in Net Community Production (NCP) following changes in the subsurface equatorial circulation and enhanced iron availability from extratropical regions. NCP is a proxy of the bulk organic carbon made available to the higher trophic levels and potentially exportable from the surface layers. The model results indicate that, besides the localized increase in the equatorial Pacific, the NCP of lower trophic levels in the northern Pacific and Atlantic oceans is projected to be halved with respect to the current climate under a substantial mitigation scenario at the end of the twenty-first century. It is thus suggested that changes due to cumulative carbon emissions up to present and the projected concentration pathways of aerosol in the next decades control the evolution of surface ocean biogeochemistry in the second half of this century more than the specific pathways of atmospheric CO₂ concentrations.     

Numerical Simulation of CO2 Concentrations in East Asia with RAMS-CMAQ

The regional air quality modeling system RAMS-CMAQ(Regional Atmospheric Modeling System and Models-3 Community Multi-scale Air Quality) was developed by incorporating a vegetation photosynthesis and respiration module(VPRM) and used to simulate temporal-spatial variations in atmospheric CO2 concentrations in East Asia,with prescribed surface CO2 fluxes(i.e.,fossil fuel emission,biomass burning,sea-air CO2 exchange,and terrestrial biosphere CO2 flux).Comparison of modeled CO2 mixing ratios with eight ground-based in-situ measurements demonstrated that the model was able to capture most observed CO2 temporal-spatial features.Simulated CO2 concentrations were generally in good agreement with observed concentrations.Results indicated that the accumulated impacts of anthropogenic emissions contributed more to increased CO2 concentrations in urban regions relative to remote locations.Moreover,RAMS-CMAQ analysis demonstrates that surface CO2 concentrations in East Asia are strongly influenced by terrestrial ecosystems.     

Ocean dynamics determine the response of oceanic CO2 uptake to climate change

The increase of atmospheric CO₂ concentrations due to anthropogenic activities is substantially damped by the ocean, whose CO₂ uptake is determined by the state of the ocean, which in turn is influenced by climate change. We investigate the mechanisms of the ocean’s carbon uptake within the feedback loop of atmospheric CO₂ concentration, climate change and atmosphere/ocean CO₂ flux. We evaluate two transient simulations from 1860 until 2100, performed with a version of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) with the carbon cycle included. In both experiments observed anthropogenic CO₂ emissions were prescribed until 2000, followed by the emissions according to the IPCC Scenario A2. In one simulation the radiative forcing of changing atmospheric CO₂ is taken into account (coupled), in the other it is suppressed (uncoupled). In both simulations, the oceanic carbon uptake increases from 1 GT C/year in 1960 to 4.5 GT C/year in 2070. Afterwards, this trend weakens in the coupled simulation, leading to a reduced uptake rate of 10% in 2100 compared to the uncoupled simulation. This includes a partial offset due to higher atmospheric CO₂ concentrations in the coupled simulation owing to reduced carbon uptake by the terrestrial biosphere. The difference of the oceanic carbon uptake between both simulations is primarily due to partial pressure difference and secondary to solubility changes. These contributions are widely offset by changes of gas transfer velocity due to sea ice melting and wind changes. The major differences appear in the Southern Ocean (?45%) and in the North Atlantic (?30%), related to reduced vertical mixing and North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, respectively. In the polar areas, sea ice melting induces additional CO₂ uptake (+20%).     

Summary of Recent Climate Change Studies on the Carbon and Nitrogen Cycles in the Terrestrial Ecosystem and Ocean in China

This article reviews recent advances over the past 4 years in the study of the carbon-nitrogen cycling and their relationship to climate change in China. The net carbon sink in the Chinese terrestrial ecosystem was 0.19-0.26 Pg C yr-1 for the 1980s and 1990s. Both natural wetlands and the rice-paddy regions emitted 1.76 Tg and 6.62 Tg of CH 4 per year for the periods 1995-2004 and 2005-2009, respectively. China emitted～1.1 Tg N 2 O-N yr-1 to the atmosphere in 2004. Land soil contained～8.3 Pg N. The excess nitrogen stored in farmland of the Yangtze River basin reached 1.51 Tg N and 2.67 Tg N in 1980 and 1990, respectively. The outer Yangtze Estuary served as a moderate or significant sink of atmospheric CO 2 except in autumn. Phytoplankton could take up carbon at a rate of 6.4 ×10 11 kg yr-1 in the China Sea. The global ocean absorbed anthropogenic CO 2 at the rates of 1.64 and 1.73 Pg C yr-1 for two simulations in the 1990s. Land net ecosystem production in China would increase until the mid-21st century then would decrease gradually under future climate change scenarios. This research should be strengthened in the future, including collection of more observation data, measurement of the soil organic carbon (SOC) loss and sequestration, evaluation of changes in SOC in deep soil layers, and the impacts of grassland management, carbon-nitrogen coupled effects, and development and improvement of various component models and of the coupled carbon cycle-climate model.     

A simulation study for the global carbon cycle,including man's impact on the biosphere

The simulation model accounts for four major compartments in the global carbon cycle: atmosphere, ocean, terrestrial biosphere and fossil carbon reservoir. The ocean is further compartmentalized into a high and a low latitude surface layer, and into 10 deep sea strata. The oceanic carbon fluxes are caused by massflow of descending and upwelling water, by precipitation of organic material and by diffusion exchange.The biosphere is horizontally subdivided into six ecosystems and vertically into leaves, branches, stemwood, roots, litter, young humus and stable soil carbon. Deforestation, slash and burn agriculture, rangeland burning and shifts in land use have been included. The atmosphere is treated as one well mixed reservoir. Fossil fuel consumption is simulated with historic data, and with IIASA scenario's for the future. Using the low IIASA scenario an atmospheric CO₂ concentration of 431 ppmv is simulated for 2030 AD. A sensitivity analysis shows the importance of different parameters and of human behaviour. Notwithstanding the large size of the biosphere fluxes, the atmospheric CO₂ concentration in the next century will be predominantly determined by the growth rate of fossil fuel consumption.     

Impacts of Seasonal Fossil and Ocean Emissions on the Seasonal Cycle of Atmospheric CO2

The seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 at surface observation stations in the northern hemisphere is driven primarily by net ecosystem production (NEP) fluxes from terrestrial ecosystems. In addition to NEP from terrestrial ecosystems, surface fluxes from fossil fuel combustion and ocean exchange also contribute to the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2. Here the authors use the Goddard Earth Observing System-Chemistry (GEOS-Chem) model (version 8-02-01), with modifications, to assess the impact of these fluxes on the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 in 2005. Modifications include monthly fossil and ocean emission inventories. CO2 simulations with monthly varying and annual emission inventories were carried out separately. The sources and sinks of monthly averaged net surface flux are different from those of annual emission inventories for every month. Results indicate that changes in monthly averaged net surface flux have a greater impact on the average concentration of atmospheric CO2 in the northern hemisphere than on the average concentration for latitudes 30-90°S in July. The concentration values differ little between both emission inventories over the latitudinal range from the equator to 30°S in January and July. The accumulated impacts of the monthly averaged fossil and ocean emissions contribute to an increase of the total global monthly average of CO2 from May to December.An apparent discrepancy for global average CO2 concentration between model results and observation was because the observation stations were not sufficiently representative. More accurate values for monthly varying net surface flux will be necessary in future to run the CO2 simulation.     

Will the tropical land biosphere dominate the climate–carbon cycle feedback during the twenty-first century?

Global warming caused by anthropogenic CO₂ emissions is expected to reduce the capability of the ocean and the land biosphere to take up carbon. This will enlarge the fraction of the CO₂ emissions remaining in the atmosphere, which in turn will reinforce future climate change. Recent model studies agree in the existence of such a positive climate–carbon cycle feedback, but the estimates of its amplitude differ by an order of magnitude, which considerably increases the uncertainty in future climate projections. Therefore we discuss, in how far a particular process or component of the carbon cycle can be identified, that potentially contributes most to the positive feedback. The discussion is based on simulations with a carbon cycle model, which is embedded in the atmosphere/ocean general circulation model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. Two simulations covering the period 1860–2100 are conducted to determine the impact of global warming on the carbon cycle. Forced by historical and future carbon dioxide emissions (following the scenario A2 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), they reveal a noticeable positive climate–carbon cycle feedback, which is mainly driven by the tropical land biosphere. The oceans contribute much less to the positive feedback and the temperate/boreal terrestrial biosphere induces a minor negative feedback. The contrasting behavior of the tropical and temperate/boreal land biosphere is mostly attributed to opposite trends in their net primary productivity (NPP) under global warming conditions. As these findings depend on the model employed they are compared with results derived from other climate–carbon cycle models, which participated in the Coupled Climate–Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP).

Simulating effects of land use changes on carbon fluxes: past contributions to atmospheric CO2 increases and future commitments due to losses of terrestrial sink capacity

The impact of land use on the global carbon cycle and climate is assessed. The Bern carbon cycle-climate model was used with land use maps from HYDE3.0 for 1700 to 2000 A.D. and from post-SRES scenarios for this century. Cropland and pasture expansion each cause about half of the simulated net carbon emissions of 188 Gt C over the industrial period and 1.1 Gt C yr⁻¹ in the 1990s, implying a residual terrestrial sink of 113 Gt C and of 1.8 Gt C yr⁻¹, respectively. Direct CO₂ emissions due to land conversion as simulated in book-keeping models dominate carbon fluxes due to land use in the past. They are, however, mitigated by 25% through the feedback of increased atmospheric CO₂ stimulating uptake. CO₂ stimulated sinks are largely lost when natural lands are converted. Past land use change has eliminated potential future carbon sinks equivalent to emissions of 80–150 Gt C over this century. They represent a commitment of past land use change, which accounts for 70% of the future land use flux in the scenarios considered. Pre-industrial land use emissions are estimated to 45 Gt C at most, implying a maximum change in Holocene atmospheric CO₂ of 3 ppm. This is not compatible with the hypothesis that early anthropogenic CO₂ emissions prevented a new glacial period.